当前我国利率政策阻滞因素研究
|
摘要
利率政策作为货币政策的重要组成部分之一,通过影响社会活动中的货币流量以实现调控国民收入、物价水平等宏观经济变量的目的。目前我国利率传导机制堵塞效用较强,由于利率市场化进程缓慢和金融市场内外存在的诸多阻滞因素,利率传导机制作用相对有限,利率政策有效性需要得到进一步提高。本文的研究对象是利率政策阻滞因素——阻碍利率政策发挥调节宏观经济运行有效性的所有因素。
本文通过对影响利率政策有效性的宏观、中观和微观因素的研究发现,利率政策阻滞因素主要分为三类:制定和实施保障阶段的制度性阻滞因素(包括经济开放政策阻滞因素、体制转轨制度阻滞因素、利率管制体制阻滞因素);实施和作用阶段的市场性阻滞因素(包括货币市场阻滞因素和资本市场阻滞因素);作用和效应阶段的行为性阻滞因素(包括中央银行、商业银行、企业和居民的行为模式)。这三类因素相互作用,共同形成了对利率政策传导和发挥作用的阻滞。通过进一步的实证分析发现,近二十年来,我国利率政策整体上是低效的,对国民收入、物价水平和微观领域的投资、消费等行为的应有影响未能有效发挥,且存在一定的政策时滞效应。
Interest rate polocy exists as one part of monetary policy system. In the recent years, People’s Bank of China has paid more attention to interest rate policy and the tools, and increases the utilization frequency and flexibility. With the gradual development of China’s reform on interest rate liberalization, as one important economic lever, interest rate will play a more crucial role in the China’s macro-control system. However, the validity of interest rate policy in China is still limited to some extent because of a great deal of negative factors which block the transmition process of interest rate.
The foundation which the interest rate policy functions and influences on the macro-economy is the monetary flow quantity, and in the process of interest rate transmition, the monetary velocity is supposed to change the monetary flux in the entire society, so we can call interest rate policy as flux monetary policy. The tools with which People’s Bank of China adjusts GDP and CPI are consisted of benchmark interest rates that root in the re-lending, rediscoun, deposit reserve and excess reserve, deposit and lending interest rate of financial institutions, fluctuation range of deposit and lending interest rate of financial institutions, and interest rate structure and levels. This paper defines the“negative factors”as all those“Retardation Factors”which might block or retard the validity of interest rate policy’s adjusting macro-economy function. The retardation factors might not only derive from economic system, but also come from the financial markets and the behaviors of micro-principal part such as the enterprises and citizens.
The western theories on the interest rate policy mostly were based on the product markets and financial markets with the perfect functions and excellent efficency, and these hypothesises were in accord with the economy status of both America and UK in 1930s, however, the conditions in the developing countries are very different from that. So when we study on China’s interest rate policy and its validity, the special characteristis of the instituions, markets and behaviors in China which might give birth to those complex retardation factors to interest rate transmition should be analyzed and investigated very carefully, and then the effective suggestions can be brought out to overcome the disadvantages.
The current retardation factors to interest rate policy in China are compose of three kinds as follows:
Firstly, the retardation factors are derived from the process of economic system transformation in China.
(1) In an opening-up economy, the exchange rate policy and the opening-up of capital account can affect a lot on the validity of interest rate policy. According to the current conditions in China, the interest rate policy had worked well for many years since 1978, but after being a member of WTO in 2001, the range of opening up of capital account have been enlarged year by year, and reform on exchange rate on Jul. 21, 2005 increased the fluctuation space of RMB’exchange rate, as a result, the validity of interest rate policy has been shaked and is becoming very insufficient.
(2) In the period of the economic system transformation in China, the transmition route of interest rate is not smooth which cannot meet the need of market economy. Furthermore, the complexity and diversity of conditions existing in the period of the economic system transformation result in the low interest rate elasticity of savings and investments.
(3) The current governing system on the interest rate in China also blocks the validity of IRP (interest rate policy). From the reform and opening-up in 1978 to present, The governing system on the interest rate has experienced much changes and evolution, and now it is transiting between the strict governing stage and liberty stage. However, the interest rates of deposit and lending in financial institutions in China are still controlled by the national central bank, so that the price embodied in the benchmark interest rate of the People’Bank of China cannot be absorbed efficiently and sufficiently by financial institutions, and further by enterprised and citizens, and the validity of IRP gets inhibited.
Secondly, the retardation factors are derived from the financial markets including monetary market and capital market in China.
(1) The monetary market where the national central bank gathers market information and makes IRP based is definitely the ligament connecting the benchmark interest rates to the capical market. During the about two decades after 1978, China had developed with great priority the capital markets such as government bond markets, security markets in order to get the sufficient funds to support economic growth, which resulted in the lag evolution of monetary. The retardation factors deriving from monetary market in China are consisted of the imperfect circumstance of monetary market, the poor components of participants and tools, and nonequilibrium growth of sub-moneytary markets.
(2) The capital markets play the crucial role in the process of IRP transmition and function as the important carrier for the price information of interest rate. The capital markets face the more far-ranging micro-principal parts comparing to the monetary markets, through which the IRP can diffuse and act on the enterprises and citizens. The retardation factors deriving from capital markets in China are figured out as follows: the irrational structure of principal parts participating into the markets, the nonequilibrium distribution of financial assets, the low integration between monetary markets and capital markets.
(3) the circulation velocity of monetary decides the validity of IRP to some extent. Because of the insufficient competition system in the financial markets, there are plenty of negative factors including the monetary representation of economy, the change of industrial structure which will block the efficient transimition of IRP.
Thirdly, the retardation factors are derived from the micro-principal parts including enterprises and citizens in China.
(1) The low independency of the national central bank and the defective transparency of IRP have retarded the validity. On the one hand, the People’Bank of China cannot decide the indepent IRP which only considers the stability of money because the national central bank have been enslaved to the government and other macro-control objectives, as a result, the independence of IRP will be depressed and the validity is accordingly low. On the other hand, the transparency of IRP is same improtant so that the micro-principal parts can make the rational expectation to the policies and adjust their saving, consumption and investment choices. However, the retardation factors including the structure factors in the policies’transparency and the route factors have some negative effection on the validity of IRP.
(2) The credit channel of commercial banks in China lack of smooth characteristics is another negative aspect for the IRP. We demonstrate the negative effection as follows: the imbalance of lending structure and the credit cycle in commercial banks restricts that the IRP make more function; the natural kin relationship and substantial property right connection between commercial banks and the national central bank decrease the independence of the People’Bank of China; the adverse election and moral hazard between commercial banks and enterprises have distorted the normal transmition of market interest rate.
(3) The abundance micro-principal parts that make up the foundation of economy will retard the validity of IRP by the irrational and disaccord expectation. Nowadays, on the one hand, the over-release of consumption of citizens which have been accumulated during the past years counteract the function of increasing of benchmark interest rates by the national central bank, as well as the investment of estate assets and financial assets. On the other hand, the enterprises have expanded the scope of direct financing with great blindness and investment impulse, which also counteract the effection increasing of benchmark interest rates by the national central bank. What is more, the irrational and disaccord expectation of micro-principal parts also block the validity of IRP.
According to the study above, we devide the retardation factors into three kinds which definitely act on each other as follows: the institutional retardation factors, the marketable retardation factors and behavior retardation factors. There are some simple conclusions as follows: (1) the validity of IRP in China since 1992 is low to some extent; (2) the effections of IRP on the GDP and CPI has been depressed year by year; (3) the real deposit interest rates are not the most crucial factors which function on the fixed asset investment; (4) the time lag exists in the IRP in China, and the macro-control tools cannot get effection instantly.
Regarding the positive experience of developed financial markets in America and Japan and so on, we brought out several suggestions which will help overcome the retardation factors of interest rate policy in China and improve the validity. First, the government should promote the course of the reform of economy system; second, the financial markets including monetary markets and capital markets should get further development and evolution; third, the micro-principal parts should be encouraged to behave more positively to react on the interest rate policy.
本文通过对影响利率政策有效性的宏观、中观和微观因素的研究发现,利率政策阻滞因素主要分为三类:制定和实施保障阶段的制度性阻滞因素(包括经济开放政策阻滞因素、体制转轨制度阻滞因素、利率管制体制阻滞因素);实施和作用阶段的市场性阻滞因素(包括货币市场阻滞因素和资本市场阻滞因素);作用和效应阶段的行为性阻滞因素(包括中央银行、商业银行、企业和居民的行为模式)。这三类因素相互作用,共同形成了对利率政策传导和发挥作用的阻滞。通过进一步的实证分析发现,近二十年来,我国利率政策整体上是低效的,对国民收入、物价水平和微观领域的投资、消费等行为的应有影响未能有效发挥,且存在一定的政策时滞效应。
Interest rate polocy exists as one part of monetary policy system. In the recent years, People’s Bank of China has paid more attention to interest rate policy and the tools, and increases the utilization frequency and flexibility. With the gradual development of China’s reform on interest rate liberalization, as one important economic lever, interest rate will play a more crucial role in the China’s macro-control system. However, the validity of interest rate policy in China is still limited to some extent because of a great deal of negative factors which block the transmition process of interest rate.
The foundation which the interest rate policy functions and influences on the macro-economy is the monetary flow quantity, and in the process of interest rate transmition, the monetary velocity is supposed to change the monetary flux in the entire society, so we can call interest rate policy as flux monetary policy. The tools with which People’s Bank of China adjusts GDP and CPI are consisted of benchmark interest rates that root in the re-lending, rediscoun, deposit reserve and excess reserve, deposit and lending interest rate of financial institutions, fluctuation range of deposit and lending interest rate of financial institutions, and interest rate structure and levels. This paper defines the“negative factors”as all those“Retardation Factors”which might block or retard the validity of interest rate policy’s adjusting macro-economy function. The retardation factors might not only derive from economic system, but also come from the financial markets and the behaviors of micro-principal part such as the enterprises and citizens.
The western theories on the interest rate policy mostly were based on the product markets and financial markets with the perfect functions and excellent efficency, and these hypothesises were in accord with the economy status of both America and UK in 1930s, however, the conditions in the developing countries are very different from that. So when we study on China’s interest rate policy and its validity, the special characteristis of the instituions, markets and behaviors in China which might give birth to those complex retardation factors to interest rate transmition should be analyzed and investigated very carefully, and then the effective suggestions can be brought out to overcome the disadvantages.
The current retardation factors to interest rate policy in China are compose of three kinds as follows:
Firstly, the retardation factors are derived from the process of economic system transformation in China.
(1) In an opening-up economy, the exchange rate policy and the opening-up of capital account can affect a lot on the validity of interest rate policy. According to the current conditions in China, the interest rate policy had worked well for many years since 1978, but after being a member of WTO in 2001, the range of opening up of capital account have been enlarged year by year, and reform on exchange rate on Jul. 21, 2005 increased the fluctuation space of RMB’exchange rate, as a result, the validity of interest rate policy has been shaked and is becoming very insufficient.
(2) In the period of the economic system transformation in China, the transmition route of interest rate is not smooth which cannot meet the need of market economy. Furthermore, the complexity and diversity of conditions existing in the period of the economic system transformation result in the low interest rate elasticity of savings and investments.
(3) The current governing system on the interest rate in China also blocks the validity of IRP (interest rate policy). From the reform and opening-up in 1978 to present, The governing system on the interest rate has experienced much changes and evolution, and now it is transiting between the strict governing stage and liberty stage. However, the interest rates of deposit and lending in financial institutions in China are still controlled by the national central bank, so that the price embodied in the benchmark interest rate of the People’Bank of China cannot be absorbed efficiently and sufficiently by financial institutions, and further by enterprised and citizens, and the validity of IRP gets inhibited.
Secondly, the retardation factors are derived from the financial markets including monetary market and capital market in China.
(1) The monetary market where the national central bank gathers market information and makes IRP based is definitely the ligament connecting the benchmark interest rates to the capical market. During the about two decades after 1978, China had developed with great priority the capital markets such as government bond markets, security markets in order to get the sufficient funds to support economic growth, which resulted in the lag evolution of monetary. The retardation factors deriving from monetary market in China are consisted of the imperfect circumstance of monetary market, the poor components of participants and tools, and nonequilibrium growth of sub-moneytary markets.
(2) The capital markets play the crucial role in the process of IRP transmition and function as the important carrier for the price information of interest rate. The capital markets face the more far-ranging micro-principal parts comparing to the monetary markets, through which the IRP can diffuse and act on the enterprises and citizens. The retardation factors deriving from capital markets in China are figured out as follows: the irrational structure of principal parts participating into the markets, the nonequilibrium distribution of financial assets, the low integration between monetary markets and capital markets.
(3) the circulation velocity of monetary decides the validity of IRP to some extent. Because of the insufficient competition system in the financial markets, there are plenty of negative factors including the monetary representation of economy, the change of industrial structure which will block the efficient transimition of IRP.
Thirdly, the retardation factors are derived from the micro-principal parts including enterprises and citizens in China.
(1) The low independency of the national central bank and the defective transparency of IRP have retarded the validity. On the one hand, the People’Bank of China cannot decide the indepent IRP which only considers the stability of money because the national central bank have been enslaved to the government and other macro-control objectives, as a result, the independence of IRP will be depressed and the validity is accordingly low. On the other hand, the transparency of IRP is same improtant so that the micro-principal parts can make the rational expectation to the policies and adjust their saving, consumption and investment choices. However, the retardation factors including the structure factors in the policies’transparency and the route factors have some negative effection on the validity of IRP.
(2) The credit channel of commercial banks in China lack of smooth characteristics is another negative aspect for the IRP. We demonstrate the negative effection as follows: the imbalance of lending structure and the credit cycle in commercial banks restricts that the IRP make more function; the natural kin relationship and substantial property right connection between commercial banks and the national central bank decrease the independence of the People’Bank of China; the adverse election and moral hazard between commercial banks and enterprises have distorted the normal transmition of market interest rate.
(3) The abundance micro-principal parts that make up the foundation of economy will retard the validity of IRP by the irrational and disaccord expectation. Nowadays, on the one hand, the over-release of consumption of citizens which have been accumulated during the past years counteract the function of increasing of benchmark interest rates by the national central bank, as well as the investment of estate assets and financial assets. On the other hand, the enterprises have expanded the scope of direct financing with great blindness and investment impulse, which also counteract the effection increasing of benchmark interest rates by the national central bank. What is more, the irrational and disaccord expectation of micro-principal parts also block the validity of IRP.
According to the study above, we devide the retardation factors into three kinds which definitely act on each other as follows: the institutional retardation factors, the marketable retardation factors and behavior retardation factors. There are some simple conclusions as follows: (1) the validity of IRP in China since 1992 is low to some extent; (2) the effections of IRP on the GDP and CPI has been depressed year by year; (3) the real deposit interest rates are not the most crucial factors which function on the fixed asset investment; (4) the time lag exists in the IRP in China, and the macro-control tools cannot get effection instantly.
Regarding the positive experience of developed financial markets in America and Japan and so on, we brought out several suggestions which will help overcome the retardation factors of interest rate policy in China and improve the validity. First, the government should promote the course of the reform of economy system; second, the financial markets including monetary markets and capital markets should get further development and evolution; third, the micro-principal parts should be encouraged to behave more positively to react on the interest rate policy.
引文
①巴曙松.论时滞效应与货币政策的有效性[J].南方金融,1999(10).
①王召.对中国货币政策传导机制的探讨[J].经济科学,2001(5).
②卞志村.我国货币政策外部时滞的经验分析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2004(3).
①中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编.现代汉语词典(第5版)[M].北京:商务印书馆,2007年,第1820页。
②牛津现代高级英汉双解词典[M].北京:商务印书馆(原始版权属牛津大学出版社),1993年,第119、969页。
③王廉程、姜华、徐晓东.经济欠发达地区货币政策传导功能阻滞的因素及分析[J].黑龙江金融,2002年第7期。
④中国人民银行平凉地区支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].甘肃金融,2001年第2期。
⑤中国人民银行泾川县支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].西南金融,2001年第3期。
①曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①冯慧芳.利率与货币需求关系的理论与实证研究[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008年第7期。
②马歇尔.经济学原理(下卷)[M].朱志泰译,北京.商务印书馆,1964年。
③平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
①黄奕林.不确定性与凯恩斯经济学[J]经济研究,1997年第9期
②杨英杰.威克塞尔“累积过程”模型的动态稳定性研究[J].经济科学,2002年第5期。
③平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
①平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
②凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983年。
③凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983年。
①余敏.浅析关于货币政策传导机制的争论[J].市场周刊,2004年6月号。
②[美]奥利维尔·布兰查德.宏观经济学[M](第2版).北京:清华大学出版社,2003年,第95页;曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架:一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006年第5期。
②本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架:一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006年第5期;高鸿业.西方经济学(第3版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年。
①陈立平.人民币新汇率下浙江纺织品出口之应对策略[J].商业经济与管理,2006年第1期。
②赵春玲、胡建渊.理性预期条件下的货币政策有效性分析[J].财贸研究,2005年第4期。
③罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999年。
①Greenwald B, J Stigliti,“New and Old Keynesians”, Journal of Economic Perspectives,Winter, 1993, 7 (1).
②周诚君.外生利率下的货币政策中介目标选择——兼析马克思的货币利息理论[J].经济评论,2002年第9期。
③根据李社环(2005)的总结归纳。参见李社环.利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2006年。
①何慧刚.中国资本项目开放与汇率制度选择——理论分析与现实策略[J].社会科学战线,2008年第5期。
①Krugman, P.,“The Eternal Triangle Explaning International Financial Perplexity”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/, Oct., 1998.
②张建平.人民币汇率进一步改革的基础与动因[J].社会科学战线,2008年第2期。
①时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005年第10期。
②吴晓求、赵锡军、瞿强等.市场主导与银行主导[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年,第253页。
③货币市场的广度和深度极强,是因为作为世界上最有效率的市场类型,它能在极短的时间内通过吸收大量的交易,拉平任何一种货币市场工具被低估或高估的程度,从而使利率和证券价格波动较小。详细参见彼得·S·罗斯(Peter S. Rose).货币与资本市场[M].陆军等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年,第282页。
①赵何敏.我国金融市场在货币政策传导中的作用分析[J],宏观经济管理,2001年第4期。
①本段落所引2005年数据来自中国人民银行.2005年金融市场运行情况[OL].中国金融市场发展报告·2005,中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn),2006年2月。
②时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005年第10期。
③张国喜.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,2007年第1期。
①李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007年第7期。
①李晓、张建平.货币升值与股市价格变动——1985年后的日本与当今中国之比较[J],新金融,2007年第7期。
②张璐.中国资本市场发展及面临的挑战[J].江西社会科学,2007年第4期。
①托宾的q理论所包含的一系列假设前提有:资产是多样化的;各种资产的收益率不同;资产之间不存在完全替代;采用一般均衡的分析方法;经济体系包括实体部门和金融部门。
②选择的依据是资产的流动性即资产变现能力的大小,也称作“流动性效应”。参见B. S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler,“Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission”[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48。
③邹德文、张家峰、陈要军.中国资本市场的多层次选择与创新[M].北京:人民出版社,2006年,第242-264页。
①李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007年第7期。
②徐璋勇、张琦.虚拟资本市场发展对货币政策效果冲击的理论分析[J].当代财经,2007年第3期。
①戴根有主编.中国货币政策传导机制研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001年,第113页。
②曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①曾利飞、李治国、徐剑刚.中国金融机构的资产结构与货币流通速度[J].世界经济,2006年第8期。
②江军红、李治国.产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响[J].财经研究,2006年第9期。
③张数明、杜卫亮.我国货币流通速度计量分析[M].山东大学学报(哲社版),2006年第2期。
①易定红.美联储实施货币政策的经验及其借鉴意义[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第213-217页。
②欧洲中央银行.欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].张敖、胡秋慧译,北京:中国金融出版社,2004年,第71页。
③苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007年第1期。
④徐文新.日本央行独立性研究及对我国的启示[J].浙江金融,2007年第4期。
⑤孙凯、秦宛顺.对我国中央银行独立性建设的探讨[J].金融研究,2007年第5期。
①V. Hahn, Central Bank Transparency: A Survey, Ifo-Studies, Vol. 48, No. 3, 2002, pp. 429-455.
②赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与体系的非完整性[J].财经科学,2007年第2期;赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与市场预期的整合[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007年第2期。
③彭芸.不同模式下货币政策委员会的沟通策略[J].上海金融,2007年第7期。
④陆蓓.货币政策透明的新领域:政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007年第10期。
①苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007年第1期。
①陆蓓.货币政策透明度的新领域——政策路径的信息沟通[J] .上海金融,2007年第10期。
①虽然简单规则并不能使利率政策目标函数达到最优值,但如果这种简单规则能够使其充分接近,那么,考虑到实施成本和政策效率等方面,简单规则仍然是非常可取的。
②陆蓓.货币政策透明度的新领域——政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007年第10期。
①成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[OL] .新华网(www.news.cn).2008年4月23日,http://news. xinhuanet. com/theory/ 2008-04/23/content_8033716. htm
①成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[J] .新华网(www.news.cn),2008年4月23日。
②Gerald O. Reilly,“Retail Interest Rates Pass-through: The Irish Experience”[J], The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 2, 2002, p.224.
①周孟亮、李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2007年第3期。
②当然,利率政策能否充分发挥作用,还要看实体经济中企业、居民等微观经济主体资金需求行为的特征和变化,商业银行只能代表资金供给方的意图。
①夏德仁等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J] .金融研究,2003年第5期。
②譬如,在紧缩性的利率政策下,银行可以通过出售所持有的证券,抵消或缓解货币紧缩对其贷款供给的下调压力。
③譬如,在紧缩性的利率政策下,虽然银行贷款规模不断下降,但由于企业可以同样从银行体系外获得资金来源,则利率政策在信贷渠道下就失去了对经济的紧缩调控作用。应该注意的是,虽然信贷渠道下的利率政策有效性受到抑制,但并不代表利率政策综合有效性也必然会下降,因为金融资产价格渠道、资产负债表渠道等会通过微观经济主体资金来源的替代效应产生反向的影响,进而弥补甚至超过信贷渠道的不利影响,提高利率政策的整体有效性。只不过相比于成熟的金融市场国家,中国利率政策的信贷渠道的重要性要更显著一些。参见夏德仁等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J],金融研究2003年第5期。
④周孟亮、李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J] .中央财经大学学报,007年第3期。
①B. S. Bernanke, A. S. Blinder,“Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand”[J], The American Review, Vol. 78, 1988, pp. 435-439.
①向新民.三种信贷行为及其对货币政策传导的影响[J].浙江学刊,2007年第4期。
①两种信贷寻租费用的定义和分类参照谢平、陆磊.中国金融腐败研究:从定性到定量[J].比较,第八辑,北京:中信出版社,2003年,第14-19页。
②郑国英.关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2007年第7期。
①这对于企业的影响是类似的,企业的储蓄和信贷行为同样受到利率渠道的影响,而个人的财务成本变成了企业的资产负债表,居民消费对应着企业的投资行为。
②蔡宁、李钢、阮刚辉.利率政策对我国居民跨期消费选择的效应研究[J].经济科学,2002年第6期。
①考虑到利率政策周期的连贯性,央行开始重视利率调节的时间要更早一些。参见尚煜.不同经济发展阶段利率调整对居民储蓄作用的实证分析[J].财经论丛,2007年第8期。
①陈学彬等.货币政策效应的微观基础研究[J],复旦学报(社会科学版),2005年第1期。
①高志敏、彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J].财经科学,2007年11期。
①中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007年。
②数据来源:中国金融统计年鉴,2007年;中国统计年鉴,2005年、2006年、2007年;中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn)等。
①彭方平、王少平.我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证分析[J],金融研究,2007年第9期。
②高志敏、彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J],财经科学,2007年11期。
1.彼得·S·罗斯(美).货币与资本市场(第八版)[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006.
2.闻岳春,严谷军.西方金融理论[M].北京.商务印书馆.2006.
3.李腊生,翟淑萍.货币政策工具的选择及其有效性研究[M].北京.中国统计出版社.2007.
4.王晓天.开放条件下的货币政策规则研究[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2007.
5.张勇.论中国货币政策传导机制的不确定性[M].北京.人民出版社.2006.
6.王宇.货币政策的决策与传导[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2005.
7.李社环.利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M].上海.上海财经大学出版社.2000.
8.刘义圣.中国利率市场化改革论纲[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2002.
9.戴根有.中国货币政策传导机制研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2001.
10.张敖,胡秋慧(译).欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2004.
11.唐旭.金融理论前沿课题[M].北京.中国金融出版社.1999.
12.申海波,陈莉(译).金融自由化的经验[M].上海.上海财经大学出版社.2002.
13.黄建锋.利率投资——中国金融业21世纪的现实抉择[M].北京.机械工业出版社.2002.
14.李朝民.市场利率及其风险控制研究[M].郑州.郑州大学出版社.2002.
15.廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定——兼论中国资本项目开放[M].上海.上海远东出版社.2001.
16.白建林.利率与现金管理实务[M].北京.中国物价出版社.2001.
17.周振华.经济发展中的利率[M].上海.上海社会科学院出版社.2004:27、259-269.
18.中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编.现代汉语词典(第5版)[M].北京.商务印书馆.2007,.第1820页.
19.牛津现代高级英汉双解词典[M].北京.商务印书馆(原始版权属牛津大学出版社).1993:119、969.
20.曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京.清华大学出版社.2006.
21.马歇尔.经济学原理(下卷) [M].朱志泰译.北京.商务印书馆.1964.
22.凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京.商务印书馆.1983.
23.高鸿业.西方经济学(第3版)[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006.
24. [美]奥利维尔·布兰查德.宏观经济学(第2版)[M].北京.清华大学出版社.2003:95-106.
25. [美]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京.商务印书馆.1999.
26.王文平.经济发展中的利率政策[M].北京.中国经济出版社.2005.
27.吴晓求,赵锡军,瞿强,等.市场主导与银行主导[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006:253.
28.刘传哲,聂学峰.我国货币政策的传递途径——理论与实证研究[M].北京.经济管理出版社.2007.
29. Kanhaya L. Gupta.金融自由化的经验[M].申海波、陈莉译.上海.上海财经大学出版社.2002.
30.邹德文,张家峰,陈要军.中国资本市场的多层次选择与创新[M].北京.人民出版社.2006:8.
31.易定红.美联储实施货币政策的经验及其借鉴意义[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2004:213-217.
32.欧洲中央银行.欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].张敖、胡秋慧译.北京.中国金融出版社.2004:71.
33.张传良,等.商业银行中间业务[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2006.
34.中国国家统计局.中国统计,鉴[M].北京.中国统计出版社.1995-2007.
35.中国国家统计局.中国金融统计,鉴[M].北京.中国金融出版社.1995-2007.
36.中国国家统计局.中国经济景气月报[M].2002-2007.
37.蔡宁,等.利率政策对我国居民跨期消费选择的效应研究[J].经济科学,2002,4.
38.巴曙松.论时滞效应与货币政策的有效性[J].南方金融,1999,10.
39.李锁云,高侯平.中国经济内外均衡与利率、汇率政策协调[J].山西财经大学学报,2002,6.
40.王召.对中国货币政策利率传导机制的探讨[J].经济科学,2001,5.
41.方先明,等.中国货币政策利率传导机制有效性的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2005,4.
42.徐琼,等.效应时滞与货币政策有效性——中国1993-2001,的实证分析和政策含义[J].财经论丛,2003,3.
43.卞志村.我国货币政策外部时滞的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,第3期.
44.赵昕,任晴.从居民层面看我国货币政策利率传导的制约因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,8.
45.王云中.马克思利率理论视角下的银行信贷资金和利率及其政策含义[J].当代经济研究,2007,1.
46.李建建.马克思利息理论与中国利率市场化的改革实践[J].当代经济研究,2006,10.
47.江春,刘春华.经济转轨国家利率市场化的制度分析[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,1.
48.许东江.中国居民、银行、企业对利率市场化的理性反应——利率市场化发挥积极效应的一种思路[J].世界经济,2002,5.
49.邹琪,冯栋.论人民币汇率稳定下的利率政策[J].山东大学学报(哲社版),1999,4.
50.邢毓静.当前美国利率政策走势与中国利率政策的现实选择[J].国际经济评论,2002,2.
51.邹运.中国开放过程中的利率政策[J].世界经济,2000,11.
52.赫国胜.克林顿任期内美国利率政策评述及新世纪美国利率政策展望[J].世界经济与政治,2001,11.
53.郭建伟.2001-2002,中国利率政策回顾与展望[J].国际金融研究,2002,1.
54.杜婕,黄国妍.欧洲中央银行与美联储利率政策实践及效果评价与分析[J].东北亚论坛,2003,2.
55.闫素仙.20世纪美国利率政策的演变及启示[J].当代经济研究,2004,5.
56.徐寒飞.利率非对称传导关系与利率政策的效率[J].世界经济,2004,8.
57.李扬,彭兴韵.解析美联储的利率政策及其货币政策理念[J].国际金融研究,2005,2.
58.王廉程,姜华,徐晓东.经济欠发达地区货币政策传导功能阻滞的因素及分析[J].黑龙江金融,2002,7.
59.中国人民银行平凉地区支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].甘肃金融,2001,2.
60.中国人民银行泾川县支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].西南金融,2001,3.
61.冯慧芳.利率与货币需求关系的理论与实证研究[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008,7.
62.平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007.
63.杨英杰.威克塞尔“累积过程”模型的动态稳定性研究[J].经济科学,2002,5.
64.余敏.浅析关于货币政策传导机制的争论[J].市场周刊,2004,6.
65. [美]本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架.一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006,5.
66.陈立平.人民币新汇率下浙江纺织品出口之应对策略[J].商业经济与管理,2006,1.
67.赵春玲,胡建渊.理性预期条件下的货币政策有效性分析[J].财贸研究,2005,4.
68.周诚君.外生利率下的货币政策中介目标选择——兼析马克思的货币利息理论[J].经济评论,2002,9.
69.何慧刚.中国资本项目开放与汇率制度选择——理论分析与现实策略[J].社会科学战线,2008,5.
70.张建平.人民币汇率进一步改革的基础与动因[J].社会科学战线,2008,2.
71.时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005,10.
72.赵何敏.我国金融市场在货币政策传导中的作用分析[J].《宏观经济管理,2001,4.
73.靳文菊.全局为大、效益为本——违规操作争市场有损市场长远发展[OL].中国货币网(www.chinamoney.com.cn).2003,8:1.
74.中国人民银行. 2005 ,金融市场运行情况.中国金融市场发展报告·2005[OL].中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn).2006,2.
75.时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005,10.
76.张国喜.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,2007,1.
77.李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007,7.
78.李晓,张建平.货币升值与股市价格变动——1985,后的日本与当今中国之比较[J].新金融,2007,7.
79.张璐.中国资本市场发展及面临的挑战[J].江西社会科学,2007,4.
80.徐璋勇,张琦.虚拟资本市场发展对货币政策效果冲击的理论分析[J].当代财经,2007,3.
81.杨新松,龙革生.分业经营下资本市场与货币市场之间的联结分析[J].财经论丛,2006,2.
82.曾利飞,李治国,徐剑刚.中国金融机构的资产结构与货币流通速度[J].世界经济,2006,8.
83.江军红,李治国.产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响[J].财经研究,2006,9.
84.张数明,杜卫亮.我国货币流通速度计量分析[J].山东大学学报(哲社版),2006,2.
85.苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007,1.
86.徐文新.日本央行独立性研究及对我国的启示[J].浙江金融,2007,4.
87.孙凯,秦宛顺.对我国中央银行独立性建设的探讨[J].金融研究,2007,5.
88.赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与体系的非完整性[J].财经科学,2007,2.
89.赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与市场预期的整合[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007,2.
90.彭芸.不同模式下货币政策委员会的沟通策略[J].上海金融,2007,7.
91.陆蓓.货币政策透明的新领域.政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007,10.
92.成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[OL].新华网(www.news.cn)2008,4:23.
93.周孟亮,李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2007,3.
94.夏德仁,等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J].金融研究,2003,5.
95.向新民.三种信贷行为及其对货币政策传导的影响[J].浙江学刊,2007,4.
96.黄少安,何坤.产权、金融稳定政策与中央银行独立性[J].财经问题研究,2007,6.
97.谢平,陆磊.中国金融腐败研究.从定性到定量[S].比较,第八辑.北京.中信出版社.2003:14-19.
98.郑国英.关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2007,7.
99.张群.货币政策有效性的微观基础研究[J].金融与经济,2007,5.
100.陈学彬,等.货币政策效应的微观基础研究[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2005,1.
101.高志敏,彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J].财经科学,2007,11.
102.彭方平,王少平.我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2007,9.
103.袁仕陈.我国货币政策有效性分析——基于非一致性预期的分析视角[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2007,1.
104. Franco Modigliani, Richard Sutch. Money and Banking Innovations in Finance -innovation in interest rate[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 56, No. 1/2. (Mar. - May, 1966), pp. 178-197.
105. Seppo Kostiainen, Heikki Taimio. Interest Rate Policy with Expectations of Devaluation[J], The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 90, No. 2. (Jun.,1988), pp. 211-224.
106. Thomas Wilson. The Rate of Interest and Monetary Policy[J], Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol. 9, No. 3. (Oct., 1957), pp. 235-260.
107. Thomas D. Willett, Francesco Forte. Interest Rate Policy and External Balance[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 83, No. 2. (May, 1969), pp. 242-262.
108. Carl E. Walsh. Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 16, No. 2. (May, 1984), pp. 133-150.
109. Donald P. Tucker. Credit Rationing, Interest Rate Lags, and Monetary Policy Speed[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 82, No. 1. (Feb., 1968), pp. 54-84.
110. Boris P. Pesek, Thomas R. Saving. Monetary Policy, Taxes, and the Rate of Interest[J], The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 71, No. 4. (Aug., 1963), pp. 347-362.
111. Thomas A. Lawler. Federal Reserve Policy Strategy and Interest Rate Seasonality[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 4. (Nov., 1979), pp. 494-499.
112. Marvin Goodfriend. Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1007-1035.
113. Ralph C. Bryant. Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1036-1050.
114. Charles Freedman. Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1051-1057.
115. David Fielding, Paul Mizen. Investment, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile[J], The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, No. 441. (Mar., 1997), pp. 431-440.
116. Gurcharan S. Laumas. Anticipated Federal Budget Deficits, Monetary Policy and the Rate of Interest[J], Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 56, No. 2. (Oct., 1989), pp. 375-382.
117. Ben Bernanke, Frederic Mishkin. Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy Observations from Six Industrialized Countries[J], NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 7. (1992), pp. 183-228.
118. Guillermo A. Calvo, Carlos A. Végh. Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 37, No. 4. (Dec., 1990), pp. 753-776.
119. Daniel C. Hardy. Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy The Case of the Bundesbank[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Dec., 1998), pp. 647-671.
120. Dennis R. Starleaf, James A. Stephenson. A Suggested Solution to the Monetary-Policy Indicator Problem The Monetary Full Employment Interest Rate[J], The Journal of Finance, Vol. 24, No. 4. (Sep., 1969), pp. 623-641.
121. Robert Anderson, Albert Ando, Jared Enzler. Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Real Rate of Interest, The American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1984), pp. 55-60.
122. James Van Horne. Interest-Rate Expectations, The Shape of the Yield Curve, and Monetary Policy[J], The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 2. (May, 1966), pp. 211-215.
123. Franco Modigliani, Robert Rasche, J. Philip Cooper. Central Bank Policy, the Money Supply, and the Short-Term Rate of Interest[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 2, No. 2. (May, 1970), pp. 166-218.
124. Benjamin M. Friedman. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 721-745.
125. Irving M. Auerbach. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism Comment[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 761-767.
126. Matthew B. Canzoneri, Dale W. Henderson, Kenneth S. Rogoff. The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, No. 4. (Nov., 1983), pp. 545-566.
127. Albert H. Schaaf. Federal Mortgage Interest Rate Policy and the Supply of FHA-VA Credit[J], The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 40, No. 4. (Nov., 1958), pp. 384-389.
128. Leonardo Bartolini, Giuseppe Bertola, Alessandro Prati. Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 34, No. 1. (Feb., 2002), pp. 137-159.
129. Günter Coenen, Volker W. Wieland. Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Sixteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association San Diego, CA, January 3-5, 2004. (May, 2004), pp. 80-84.
130. James Murray Boughton. The Effect of an Active Market in Federal Funds on the Transmission of Monetary Policy[J], The Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 5. (Dec., 1970), pp. 1175-1176.
131. Ben S. Bernanke, Alan S. Blinder. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4. (Sep., 1992), pp. 901-921.
132. Edgar L. Feige, Robert McGee. Has the Federal Reserve Shifted from a Policy of Interest Rate Targets to a Policy of Monetary Aggregate Targets[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 4. (Nov., 1979), pp. 381-404.
133. Harold T. Shapiro. Distributed Lags, Interest Rate Expectations, and the Impact of the Monetary Policy . An Econometric Analysis of a Canadian Experience[J],The American Economic Review, Vol. 57, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1967), pp. 444-461.
134. Richard Jackman, John Sutton. Imperfect Capital Markets and the Monetarist Black Box Liquidity Constraints, Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Policy[J], The Economic Journal, Vol. 92, No. 365. (Mar., 1982), pp. 108-128.
135. V. Sundararajan. The Debt-Equity Ratio of Firms and the Effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy. Analysis with a Dynamic Model of Saving, Investment, and Growth in Korea[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 34, No. 2. (Jun., 1987), pp. 260-310.
136. John H. Makin. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism The Effects of Alternative Monetary ControlProcedures on Exchange Rates and Output. Comment[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 768-774.
137. V. Sundararajan. Debt-Euity Ratios of Firms and Interest Rate Policy Macroeconomic Effects of High Leverage in Developing Countries[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 32, No. 3. (Sep., 1985), pp. 430-474.
138. Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler. Inside the Black Box The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48.
139. Frederic S. Mishkin. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 3-10.
140. John B. Taylor. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism An Empirical Framework[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 11-26.
141. Greenwald B, J Stigliti, New and Old Keynesians[J], Journal of EconomicPerspectives,Winter, 1993, 7 (1).
142. Krugman, P., The Eternal Triangle Explaning International Financial Perplexity[J], http.//web.mit.edu/krugman/, Oct., 1998.
143. Mundell, R., The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1960(74), pp.227-257.
144. Fleming, J., Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], IMF Staff Papers, 1962(9), pp.369-379.
145. Mundell, R., Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1963(29), pp.475-485.
146. Frankel, Jeffrey A., Experience and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies[J], NBER Working Paper, No.10032, 2003.
147. B. S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler, Inside the Black Box. the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48.
148. C. Walsh, Optimal Contracts for Central Bank[J], American Economic Review, 1995(March), pp. 150-167.
149. Cukierman, A., Central Bank Strategy, Credibility and Independence. Theory and Evidence[M], Boston. MIT Press, 1992.
150. Romer, D., Advanced Macroeconomics[M], New York. McGraw-Hill, 2000; Walsh, C., Monetary Theory and Policy, Boston. MIT Press, 2003.
151. Gerald O. Reilly, Retail Interest Rates Pass-through. The Irish Experience[J], The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 2, 2002, p.224.
152. B. S. Bernanke, A. S. Blinder, Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand[J], The American Review, Vol. 78, 1988, pp. 435-439.
153. Lucas, R.E.Jr., Expectations and Neutrality of Money[J], Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.4, 1972, pp.103-124.
154. Fischer S., Long Term Contracts, Rational Expectation and the Optimal MoneySupply Rule[J], Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, 1987, pp.191-205.
155. Lucas, R.E., On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J], Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.22, 1988, pp.3-42.
①王召.对中国货币政策传导机制的探讨[J].经济科学,2001(5).
②卞志村.我国货币政策外部时滞的经验分析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2004(3).
①中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编.现代汉语词典(第5版)[M].北京:商务印书馆,2007年,第1820页。
②牛津现代高级英汉双解词典[M].北京:商务印书馆(原始版权属牛津大学出版社),1993年,第119、969页。
③王廉程、姜华、徐晓东.经济欠发达地区货币政策传导功能阻滞的因素及分析[J].黑龙江金融,2002年第7期。
④中国人民银行平凉地区支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].甘肃金融,2001年第2期。
⑤中国人民银行泾川县支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].西南金融,2001年第3期。
①曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①冯慧芳.利率与货币需求关系的理论与实证研究[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008年第7期。
②马歇尔.经济学原理(下卷)[M].朱志泰译,北京.商务印书馆,1964年。
③平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
①黄奕林.不确定性与凯恩斯经济学[J]经济研究,1997年第9期
②杨英杰.威克塞尔“累积过程”模型的动态稳定性研究[J].经济科学,2002年第5期。
③平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
①平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007年。
②凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983年。
③凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983年。
①余敏.浅析关于货币政策传导机制的争论[J].市场周刊,2004年6月号。
②[美]奥利维尔·布兰查德.宏观经济学[M](第2版).北京:清华大学出版社,2003年,第95页;曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架:一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006年第5期。
②本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架:一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006年第5期;高鸿业.西方经济学(第3版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年。
①陈立平.人民币新汇率下浙江纺织品出口之应对策略[J].商业经济与管理,2006年第1期。
②赵春玲、胡建渊.理性预期条件下的货币政策有效性分析[J].财贸研究,2005年第4期。
③罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999年。
①Greenwald B, J Stigliti,“New and Old Keynesians”, Journal of Economic Perspectives,Winter, 1993, 7 (1).
②周诚君.外生利率下的货币政策中介目标选择——兼析马克思的货币利息理论[J].经济评论,2002年第9期。
③根据李社环(2005)的总结归纳。参见李社环.利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2006年。
①何慧刚.中国资本项目开放与汇率制度选择——理论分析与现实策略[J].社会科学战线,2008年第5期。
①Krugman, P.,“The Eternal Triangle Explaning International Financial Perplexity”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/, Oct., 1998.
②张建平.人民币汇率进一步改革的基础与动因[J].社会科学战线,2008年第2期。
①时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005年第10期。
②吴晓求、赵锡军、瞿强等.市场主导与银行主导[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年,第253页。
③货币市场的广度和深度极强,是因为作为世界上最有效率的市场类型,它能在极短的时间内通过吸收大量的交易,拉平任何一种货币市场工具被低估或高估的程度,从而使利率和证券价格波动较小。详细参见彼得·S·罗斯(Peter S. Rose).货币与资本市场[M].陆军等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006年,第282页。
①赵何敏.我国金融市场在货币政策传导中的作用分析[J],宏观经济管理,2001年第4期。
①本段落所引2005年数据来自中国人民银行.2005年金融市场运行情况[OL].中国金融市场发展报告·2005,中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn),2006年2月。
②时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005年第10期。
③张国喜.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,2007年第1期。
①李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007年第7期。
①李晓、张建平.货币升值与股市价格变动——1985年后的日本与当今中国之比较[J],新金融,2007年第7期。
②张璐.中国资本市场发展及面临的挑战[J].江西社会科学,2007年第4期。
①托宾的q理论所包含的一系列假设前提有:资产是多样化的;各种资产的收益率不同;资产之间不存在完全替代;采用一般均衡的分析方法;经济体系包括实体部门和金融部门。
②选择的依据是资产的流动性即资产变现能力的大小,也称作“流动性效应”。参见B. S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler,“Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission”[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48。
③邹德文、张家峰、陈要军.中国资本市场的多层次选择与创新[M].北京:人民出版社,2006年,第242-264页。
①李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007年第7期。
②徐璋勇、张琦.虚拟资本市场发展对货币政策效果冲击的理论分析[J].当代财经,2007年第3期。
①戴根有主编.中国货币政策传导机制研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001年,第113页。
②曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年。
①曾利飞、李治国、徐剑刚.中国金融机构的资产结构与货币流通速度[J].世界经济,2006年第8期。
②江军红、李治国.产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响[J].财经研究,2006年第9期。
③张数明、杜卫亮.我国货币流通速度计量分析[M].山东大学学报(哲社版),2006年第2期。
①易定红.美联储实施货币政策的经验及其借鉴意义[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004年,第213-217页。
②欧洲中央银行.欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].张敖、胡秋慧译,北京:中国金融出版社,2004年,第71页。
③苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007年第1期。
④徐文新.日本央行独立性研究及对我国的启示[J].浙江金融,2007年第4期。
⑤孙凯、秦宛顺.对我国中央银行独立性建设的探讨[J].金融研究,2007年第5期。
①V. Hahn, Central Bank Transparency: A Survey, Ifo-Studies, Vol. 48, No. 3, 2002, pp. 429-455.
②赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与体系的非完整性[J].财经科学,2007年第2期;赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与市场预期的整合[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007年第2期。
③彭芸.不同模式下货币政策委员会的沟通策略[J].上海金融,2007年第7期。
④陆蓓.货币政策透明的新领域:政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007年第10期。
①苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007年第1期。
①陆蓓.货币政策透明度的新领域——政策路径的信息沟通[J] .上海金融,2007年第10期。
①虽然简单规则并不能使利率政策目标函数达到最优值,但如果这种简单规则能够使其充分接近,那么,考虑到实施成本和政策效率等方面,简单规则仍然是非常可取的。
②陆蓓.货币政策透明度的新领域——政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007年第10期。
①成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[OL] .新华网(www.news.cn).2008年4月23日,http://news. xinhuanet. com/theory/ 2008-04/23/content_8033716. htm
①成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[J] .新华网(www.news.cn),2008年4月23日。
②Gerald O. Reilly,“Retail Interest Rates Pass-through: The Irish Experience”[J], The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 2, 2002, p.224.
①周孟亮、李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2007年第3期。
②当然,利率政策能否充分发挥作用,还要看实体经济中企业、居民等微观经济主体资金需求行为的特征和变化,商业银行只能代表资金供给方的意图。
①夏德仁等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J] .金融研究,2003年第5期。
②譬如,在紧缩性的利率政策下,银行可以通过出售所持有的证券,抵消或缓解货币紧缩对其贷款供给的下调压力。
③譬如,在紧缩性的利率政策下,虽然银行贷款规模不断下降,但由于企业可以同样从银行体系外获得资金来源,则利率政策在信贷渠道下就失去了对经济的紧缩调控作用。应该注意的是,虽然信贷渠道下的利率政策有效性受到抑制,但并不代表利率政策综合有效性也必然会下降,因为金融资产价格渠道、资产负债表渠道等会通过微观经济主体资金来源的替代效应产生反向的影响,进而弥补甚至超过信贷渠道的不利影响,提高利率政策的整体有效性。只不过相比于成熟的金融市场国家,中国利率政策的信贷渠道的重要性要更显著一些。参见夏德仁等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J],金融研究2003年第5期。
④周孟亮、李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J] .中央财经大学学报,007年第3期。
①B. S. Bernanke, A. S. Blinder,“Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand”[J], The American Review, Vol. 78, 1988, pp. 435-439.
①向新民.三种信贷行为及其对货币政策传导的影响[J].浙江学刊,2007年第4期。
①两种信贷寻租费用的定义和分类参照谢平、陆磊.中国金融腐败研究:从定性到定量[J].比较,第八辑,北京:中信出版社,2003年,第14-19页。
②郑国英.关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2007年第7期。
①这对于企业的影响是类似的,企业的储蓄和信贷行为同样受到利率渠道的影响,而个人的财务成本变成了企业的资产负债表,居民消费对应着企业的投资行为。
②蔡宁、李钢、阮刚辉.利率政策对我国居民跨期消费选择的效应研究[J].经济科学,2002年第6期。
①考虑到利率政策周期的连贯性,央行开始重视利率调节的时间要更早一些。参见尚煜.不同经济发展阶段利率调整对居民储蓄作用的实证分析[J].财经论丛,2007年第8期。
①陈学彬等.货币政策效应的微观基础研究[J],复旦学报(社会科学版),2005年第1期。
①高志敏、彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J].财经科学,2007年11期。
①中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007年。
②数据来源:中国金融统计年鉴,2007年;中国统计年鉴,2005年、2006年、2007年;中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn)等。
①彭方平、王少平.我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证分析[J],金融研究,2007年第9期。
②高志敏、彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J],财经科学,2007年11期。
1.彼得·S·罗斯(美).货币与资本市场(第八版)[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006.
2.闻岳春,严谷军.西方金融理论[M].北京.商务印书馆.2006.
3.李腊生,翟淑萍.货币政策工具的选择及其有效性研究[M].北京.中国统计出版社.2007.
4.王晓天.开放条件下的货币政策规则研究[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2007.
5.张勇.论中国货币政策传导机制的不确定性[M].北京.人民出版社.2006.
6.王宇.货币政策的决策与传导[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2005.
7.李社环.利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M].上海.上海财经大学出版社.2000.
8.刘义圣.中国利率市场化改革论纲[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2002.
9.戴根有.中国货币政策传导机制研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2001.
10.张敖,胡秋慧(译).欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2004.
11.唐旭.金融理论前沿课题[M].北京.中国金融出版社.1999.
12.申海波,陈莉(译).金融自由化的经验[M].上海.上海财经大学出版社.2002.
13.黄建锋.利率投资——中国金融业21世纪的现实抉择[M].北京.机械工业出版社.2002.
14.李朝民.市场利率及其风险控制研究[M].郑州.郑州大学出版社.2002.
15.廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定——兼论中国资本项目开放[M].上海.上海远东出版社.2001.
16.白建林.利率与现金管理实务[M].北京.中国物价出版社.2001.
17.周振华.经济发展中的利率[M].上海.上海社会科学院出版社.2004:27、259-269.
18.中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编.现代汉语词典(第5版)[M].北京.商务印书馆.2007,.第1820页.
19.牛津现代高级英汉双解词典[M].北京.商务印书馆(原始版权属牛津大学出版社).1993:119、969.
20.曹家和.宏观经济学[M].北京.清华大学出版社.2006.
21.马歇尔.经济学原理(下卷) [M].朱志泰译.北京.商务印书馆.1964.
22.凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京.商务印书馆.1983.
23.高鸿业.西方经济学(第3版)[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006.
24. [美]奥利维尔·布兰查德.宏观经济学(第2版)[M].北京.清华大学出版社.2003:95-106.
25. [美]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京.商务印书馆.1999.
26.王文平.经济发展中的利率政策[M].北京.中国经济出版社.2005.
27.吴晓求,赵锡军,瞿强,等.市场主导与银行主导[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2006:253.
28.刘传哲,聂学峰.我国货币政策的传递途径——理论与实证研究[M].北京.经济管理出版社.2007.
29. Kanhaya L. Gupta.金融自由化的经验[M].申海波、陈莉译.上海.上海财经大学出版社.2002.
30.邹德文,张家峰,陈要军.中国资本市场的多层次选择与创新[M].北京.人民出版社.2006:8.
31.易定红.美联储实施货币政策的经验及其借鉴意义[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2004:213-217.
32.欧洲中央银行.欧洲中央银行货币政策[M].张敖、胡秋慧译.北京.中国金融出版社.2004:71.
33.张传良,等.商业银行中间业务[M].北京.中国金融出版社.2006.
34.中国国家统计局.中国统计,鉴[M].北京.中国统计出版社.1995-2007.
35.中国国家统计局.中国金融统计,鉴[M].北京.中国金融出版社.1995-2007.
36.中国国家统计局.中国经济景气月报[M].2002-2007.
37.蔡宁,等.利率政策对我国居民跨期消费选择的效应研究[J].经济科学,2002,4.
38.巴曙松.论时滞效应与货币政策的有效性[J].南方金融,1999,10.
39.李锁云,高侯平.中国经济内外均衡与利率、汇率政策协调[J].山西财经大学学报,2002,6.
40.王召.对中国货币政策利率传导机制的探讨[J].经济科学,2001,5.
41.方先明,等.中国货币政策利率传导机制有效性的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2005,4.
42.徐琼,等.效应时滞与货币政策有效性——中国1993-2001,的实证分析和政策含义[J].财经论丛,2003,3.
43.卞志村.我国货币政策外部时滞的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,第3期.
44.赵昕,任晴.从居民层面看我国货币政策利率传导的制约因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,8.
45.王云中.马克思利率理论视角下的银行信贷资金和利率及其政策含义[J].当代经济研究,2007,1.
46.李建建.马克思利息理论与中国利率市场化的改革实践[J].当代经济研究,2006,10.
47.江春,刘春华.经济转轨国家利率市场化的制度分析[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,1.
48.许东江.中国居民、银行、企业对利率市场化的理性反应——利率市场化发挥积极效应的一种思路[J].世界经济,2002,5.
49.邹琪,冯栋.论人民币汇率稳定下的利率政策[J].山东大学学报(哲社版),1999,4.
50.邢毓静.当前美国利率政策走势与中国利率政策的现实选择[J].国际经济评论,2002,2.
51.邹运.中国开放过程中的利率政策[J].世界经济,2000,11.
52.赫国胜.克林顿任期内美国利率政策评述及新世纪美国利率政策展望[J].世界经济与政治,2001,11.
53.郭建伟.2001-2002,中国利率政策回顾与展望[J].国际金融研究,2002,1.
54.杜婕,黄国妍.欧洲中央银行与美联储利率政策实践及效果评价与分析[J].东北亚论坛,2003,2.
55.闫素仙.20世纪美国利率政策的演变及启示[J].当代经济研究,2004,5.
56.徐寒飞.利率非对称传导关系与利率政策的效率[J].世界经济,2004,8.
57.李扬,彭兴韵.解析美联储的利率政策及其货币政策理念[J].国际金融研究,2005,2.
58.王廉程,姜华,徐晓东.经济欠发达地区货币政策传导功能阻滞的因素及分析[J].黑龙江金融,2002,7.
59.中国人民银行平凉地区支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].甘肃金融,2001,2.
60.中国人民银行泾川县支行课题组.我国货币政策传导机制阻滞因素分析及对策[J].西南金融,2001,3.
61.冯慧芳.利率与货币需求关系的理论与实证研究[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008,7.
62.平新光.利率传导机制及传到效应研究[D].中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007.
63.杨英杰.威克塞尔“累积过程”模型的动态稳定性研究[J].经济科学,2002,5.
64.余敏.浅析关于货币政策传导机制的争论[J].市场周刊,2004,6.
65. [美]本·伯南克.弗里德曼的货币框架.一些教训[J].全球瞭望,2006,5.
66.陈立平.人民币新汇率下浙江纺织品出口之应对策略[J].商业经济与管理,2006,1.
67.赵春玲,胡建渊.理性预期条件下的货币政策有效性分析[J].财贸研究,2005,4.
68.周诚君.外生利率下的货币政策中介目标选择——兼析马克思的货币利息理论[J].经济评论,2002,9.
69.何慧刚.中国资本项目开放与汇率制度选择——理论分析与现实策略[J].社会科学战线,2008,5.
70.张建平.人民币汇率进一步改革的基础与动因[J].社会科学战线,2008,2.
71.时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005,10.
72.赵何敏.我国金融市场在货币政策传导中的作用分析[J].《宏观经济管理,2001,4.
73.靳文菊.全局为大、效益为本——违规操作争市场有损市场长远发展[OL].中国货币网(www.chinamoney.com.cn).2003,8:1.
74.中国人民银行. 2005 ,金融市场运行情况.中国金融市场发展报告·2005[OL].中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn).2006,2.
75.时文朝.坚持市场化改革方向推动货币市场超常发展[J].中国金融,2005,10.
76.张国喜.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,2007,1.
77.李由.我国多层次资本市场发展问题的思考[J].西南金融,2007,7.
78.李晓,张建平.货币升值与股市价格变动——1985,后的日本与当今中国之比较[J].新金融,2007,7.
79.张璐.中国资本市场发展及面临的挑战[J].江西社会科学,2007,4.
80.徐璋勇,张琦.虚拟资本市场发展对货币政策效果冲击的理论分析[J].当代财经,2007,3.
81.杨新松,龙革生.分业经营下资本市场与货币市场之间的联结分析[J].财经论丛,2006,2.
82.曾利飞,李治国,徐剑刚.中国金融机构的资产结构与货币流通速度[J].世界经济,2006,8.
83.江军红,李治国.产业结构变动对货币流通速度的影响[J].财经研究,2006,9.
84.张数明,杜卫亮.我国货币流通速度计量分析[J].山东大学学报(哲社版),2006,2.
85.苗文龙.金融稳定与货币稳定——基于信息约束经济中央银行独立性的分析[J].金融研究,2007,1.
86.徐文新.日本央行独立性研究及对我国的启示[J].浙江金融,2007,4.
87.孙凯,秦宛顺.对我国中央银行独立性建设的探讨[J].金融研究,2007,5.
88.赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与体系的非完整性[J].财经科学,2007,2.
89.赵锴.货币政策透明度的结构与市场预期的整合[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007,2.
90.彭芸.不同模式下货币政策委员会的沟通策略[J].上海金融,2007,7.
91.陆蓓.货币政策透明的新领域.政策路径的信息沟通[J].上海金融,2007,10.
92.成思危.中国经济改革与发展研究[OL].新华网(www.news.cn)2008,4:23.
93.周孟亮,李明贤.货币政策传导过程中的金融体系研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2007,3.
94.夏德仁,等.货币政策传导的“信贷渠道”述评[J].金融研究,2003,5.
95.向新民.三种信贷行为及其对货币政策传导的影响[J].浙江学刊,2007,4.
96.黄少安,何坤.产权、金融稳定政策与中央银行独立性[J].财经问题研究,2007,6.
97.谢平,陆磊.中国金融腐败研究.从定性到定量[S].比较,第八辑.北京.中信出版社.2003:14-19.
98.郑国英.关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2007,7.
99.张群.货币政策有效性的微观基础研究[J].金融与经济,2007,5.
100.陈学彬,等.货币政策效应的微观基础研究[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2005,1.
101.高志敏,彭梦春.当前宏观经济条件下加息政策的效应分析[J].财经科学,2007,11.
102.彭方平,王少平.我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2007,9.
103.袁仕陈.我国货币政策有效性分析——基于非一致性预期的分析视角[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2007,1.
104. Franco Modigliani, Richard Sutch. Money and Banking Innovations in Finance -innovation in interest rate[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 56, No. 1/2. (Mar. - May, 1966), pp. 178-197.
105. Seppo Kostiainen, Heikki Taimio. Interest Rate Policy with Expectations of Devaluation[J], The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 90, No. 2. (Jun.,1988), pp. 211-224.
106. Thomas Wilson. The Rate of Interest and Monetary Policy[J], Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol. 9, No. 3. (Oct., 1957), pp. 235-260.
107. Thomas D. Willett, Francesco Forte. Interest Rate Policy and External Balance[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 83, No. 2. (May, 1969), pp. 242-262.
108. Carl E. Walsh. Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 16, No. 2. (May, 1984), pp. 133-150.
109. Donald P. Tucker. Credit Rationing, Interest Rate Lags, and Monetary Policy Speed[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 82, No. 1. (Feb., 1968), pp. 54-84.
110. Boris P. Pesek, Thomas R. Saving. Monetary Policy, Taxes, and the Rate of Interest[J], The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 71, No. 4. (Aug., 1963), pp. 347-362.
111. Thomas A. Lawler. Federal Reserve Policy Strategy and Interest Rate Seasonality[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 4. (Nov., 1979), pp. 494-499.
112. Marvin Goodfriend. Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1007-1035.
113. Ralph C. Bryant. Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1036-1050.
114. Charles Freedman. Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment. (Nov., 2000), pp. 1051-1057.
115. David Fielding, Paul Mizen. Investment, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile[J], The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, No. 441. (Mar., 1997), pp. 431-440.
116. Gurcharan S. Laumas. Anticipated Federal Budget Deficits, Monetary Policy and the Rate of Interest[J], Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 56, No. 2. (Oct., 1989), pp. 375-382.
117. Ben Bernanke, Frederic Mishkin. Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy Observations from Six Industrialized Countries[J], NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 7. (1992), pp. 183-228.
118. Guillermo A. Calvo, Carlos A. Végh. Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 37, No. 4. (Dec., 1990), pp. 753-776.
119. Daniel C. Hardy. Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy The Case of the Bundesbank[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Dec., 1998), pp. 647-671.
120. Dennis R. Starleaf, James A. Stephenson. A Suggested Solution to the Monetary-Policy Indicator Problem The Monetary Full Employment Interest Rate[J], The Journal of Finance, Vol. 24, No. 4. (Sep., 1969), pp. 623-641.
121. Robert Anderson, Albert Ando, Jared Enzler. Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Real Rate of Interest, The American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1984), pp. 55-60.
122. James Van Horne. Interest-Rate Expectations, The Shape of the Yield Curve, and Monetary Policy[J], The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 2. (May, 1966), pp. 211-215.
123. Franco Modigliani, Robert Rasche, J. Philip Cooper. Central Bank Policy, the Money Supply, and the Short-Term Rate of Interest[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 2, No. 2. (May, 1970), pp. 166-218.
124. Benjamin M. Friedman. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 721-745.
125. Irving M. Auerbach. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism Comment[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 761-767.
126. Matthew B. Canzoneri, Dale W. Henderson, Kenneth S. Rogoff. The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy[J], The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, No. 4. (Nov., 1983), pp. 545-566.
127. Albert H. Schaaf. Federal Mortgage Interest Rate Policy and the Supply of FHA-VA Credit[J], The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 40, No. 4. (Nov., 1958), pp. 384-389.
128. Leonardo Bartolini, Giuseppe Bertola, Alessandro Prati. Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 34, No. 1. (Feb., 2002), pp. 137-159.
129. Günter Coenen, Volker W. Wieland. Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Sixteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association San Diego, CA, January 3-5, 2004. (May, 2004), pp. 80-84.
130. James Murray Boughton. The Effect of an Active Market in Federal Funds on the Transmission of Monetary Policy[J], The Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 5. (Dec., 1970), pp. 1175-1176.
131. Ben S. Bernanke, Alan S. Blinder. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission[J], The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4. (Sep., 1992), pp. 901-921.
132. Edgar L. Feige, Robert McGee. Has the Federal Reserve Shifted from a Policy of Interest Rate Targets to a Policy of Monetary Aggregate Targets[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, No. 4. (Nov., 1979), pp. 381-404.
133. Harold T. Shapiro. Distributed Lags, Interest Rate Expectations, and the Impact of the Monetary Policy . An Econometric Analysis of a Canadian Experience[J],The American Economic Review, Vol. 57, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. (May, 1967), pp. 444-461.
134. Richard Jackman, John Sutton. Imperfect Capital Markets and the Monetarist Black Box Liquidity Constraints, Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Policy[J], The Economic Journal, Vol. 92, No. 365. (Mar., 1982), pp. 108-128.
135. V. Sundararajan. The Debt-Equity Ratio of Firms and the Effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy. Analysis with a Dynamic Model of Saving, Investment, and Growth in Korea[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 34, No. 2. (Jun., 1987), pp. 260-310.
136. John H. Makin. Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U. S. Capital Raising Mechanism The Effects of Alternative Monetary ControlProcedures on Exchange Rates and Output. Comment[J], Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 14, No. 4, Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov., 1982), pp. 768-774.
137. V. Sundararajan. Debt-Euity Ratios of Firms and Interest Rate Policy Macroeconomic Effects of High Leverage in Developing Countries[J], Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 32, No. 3. (Sep., 1985), pp. 430-474.
138. Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler. Inside the Black Box The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48.
139. Frederic S. Mishkin. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 3-10.
140. John B. Taylor. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism An Empirical Framework[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Autumn, 1995), pp. 11-26.
141. Greenwald B, J Stigliti, New and Old Keynesians[J], Journal of EconomicPerspectives,Winter, 1993, 7 (1).
142. Krugman, P., The Eternal Triangle Explaning International Financial Perplexity[J], http.//web.mit.edu/krugman/, Oct., 1998.
143. Mundell, R., The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1960(74), pp.227-257.
144. Fleming, J., Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], IMF Staff Papers, 1962(9), pp.369-379.
145. Mundell, R., Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J], Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1963(29), pp.475-485.
146. Frankel, Jeffrey A., Experience and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies[J], NBER Working Paper, No.10032, 2003.
147. B. S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler, Inside the Black Box. the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission[J], The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 27-48.
148. C. Walsh, Optimal Contracts for Central Bank[J], American Economic Review, 1995(March), pp. 150-167.
149. Cukierman, A., Central Bank Strategy, Credibility and Independence. Theory and Evidence[M], Boston. MIT Press, 1992.
150. Romer, D., Advanced Macroeconomics[M], New York. McGraw-Hill, 2000; Walsh, C., Monetary Theory and Policy, Boston. MIT Press, 2003.
151. Gerald O. Reilly, Retail Interest Rates Pass-through. The Irish Experience[J], The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 2, 2002, p.224.
152. B. S. Bernanke, A. S. Blinder, Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand[J], The American Review, Vol. 78, 1988, pp. 435-439.
153. Lucas, R.E.Jr., Expectations and Neutrality of Money[J], Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.4, 1972, pp.103-124.
154. Fischer S., Long Term Contracts, Rational Expectation and the Optimal MoneySupply Rule[J], Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, 1987, pp.191-205.
155. Lucas, R.E., On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J], Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.22, 1988, pp.3-42.