区域能源与碳排放战略决策支持的模型探索与系统开发
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摘要
为应对区域层面的气候变化,需要在全球气候经济学集成评估模型(IAM)思想下,发展气候变化区域经济学集成评估模型(Intergrated Regional Assessment of Global Climate Change Model, IRAM)。本文结合我国区域碳减排的现实需求,从碳减排经济学出发,研发了区域能源与碳排放战略决策支持系统,作为IRAM的核心探索。
本文应用经济学原理、动态最优化理论与方法、投入产出模型和目标规划等方法,开展了基本模型的建模,定量评估了中国碳排放政策的国内公平性,依据中国碳减排的目标,提出了最优减排路径,并讨论了能源结构演化、碳排放权分配、碳税等气候经济政策的有效性,分析了不同政策对产业结构、区域发展和区域公平性的影响。方法上,为了研究气候变化与气候保护的国内分区域影响,本文基于信息不对称理论,探讨了不同区域碳需求矛盾形成的原因与解决方案,从气候变化及经济发展不确定性角度进行严格分析及建模,并重点研究了地理结构约束下区域碳排放机制和气候保护的公平控制。技术上,本文以C#.NET为基础,并基于Arcgis Engine二次开发,采用智能数据挖掘、动态系统模拟等方法,开发出一个基于GIS的中国区域碳排放决策支持系统,以此分析和评估不同情景下中国各区域的产业结构优化、碳排放需求、能源演化、碳税变化等因素的气候影响。
首先,回顾了国内外碳排放与经济增长的相关问题和研究成果,结合我国实际情况,遴选出了本文的基本问题,即如何保证经济平稳增长的同时达到减排目的?基于该问题,本文将能源引入了生产函数,在内生增长模型框架下,运用动态最优化理论,考察了技术进步、可再生能源、能源效率等要素之间的内在联系与作用机理。理论模型表明,随着技术进步,产出增长率和能源效率也将提升；提高可再生能源在能源系统中的比重和可再生率,有助于缓解经济增长和碳排放之间的矛盾；此外,从政策上扶持可再生能源或低碳能源,降低可再生能源的弹性,能增加减排的经济效益。
其次,在经济最优化模型基础上引入了WITCH模型的核心部分,完成了混合建模,通过实证研究,讨论了减排的可能性及可行性,并分析了中国能源结构演化的趋势与规律。结果表明,通过改善第二产业,中国仍能获取较大的减排潜力空间；如果中国不减排,碳排放曲线仍呈倒U型,但无法达到碳排放目标；反之,约束碳排放,则约束对非电能源的影响大于电力能源,且随着约束程度的增加,煤电比重下降速度和低碳能源比重上升速度均加快。
再次,采取投入产出理论模型和模糊目标规划模型,引入能源结构演化模块的结论,分别进行产业结构优化建模和碳税情景分析建模,结果表明,产业结构调整主要影响煤炭数量和天然气比重；10%与20%产业结构优化方案影响带来的差别主要是量的差别,20%优化方案变动幅度更大,但优化效果存在边际递减现象；此外,碳税政策能促进CO2排放量减少,其中芬兰情景的减排成本为9700元/吨CO2,瑞典情景为9670元/吨CO2,欧盟情景为9828元/吨CO2；芬兰碳税机制对产业的增强作用最明显,瑞典碳税机制则对产业抑制作用最明显。
然后,采用最优化模型的结论和前人碳排放权分配的研究成果建模,讨论了碳排放权分配的区域公平问题和碳排放权分配原则的动态变化问题,结果表明,中国北方地区为碳排放亏损传统地区,南方为碳排放权盈余传统地区,这种格局在短期内不会发生大的改变；而且,将各省份碳排放权按等级进行划分,则碳排放权亏损或盈余比重越级变化的可能性较小；此外,改变碳排放权分配原则的权重,起算基年和碳排放权折旧系数等因素都会对碳排放权区域差异产生影响,通过4种方案比较,可知当折旧系数为0.8,人口累计原则所占比重为60%,GDP原则所占比重为40%时,碳排放权分配的区域差异最小,也最有利于落后地区的经济发展。
最后,本文整合了四大模块,即经济最优化模块、最优能源结构演化模块、产业结构优化和碳税模块、碳排放权分配模块,并梳理了各模块之间的相互关系和数据流动关系,将各模块整合为一个统一的综合集成评估模型(IAM),并基于C#等程序设计语言,开发出了基于IAM模型的决策支持系统。在方法学上,这个系统是以以C#.NET为基础,并基于ARCGIS Engine二次开发,结合数据挖掘与数字模拟实习系统功能需求,最终开发出一个基于GIS的中国区域碳排放决策支持系统(REGCERS), Regional Economic Growth and Carbon Emission s Reduction Strategy Decision Support System)。作为应用,本文分析和评估了不同情景下中国各区域的产业进化、人口经济、碳排放需求、能源进化等气候影响。
In order to responding to climate change on the regional level, Intergrated Regional Assessment of Global Climate Change Model(IRAM) should be deve loped. Combined with the practical needs of our region's carbon emissions, and based on the carbon emission economic principles, this paper researched and developed a regional energy and carbon emission strategic decision support syst em as the core exploration of IRAM.
Applying econometric methods, dynamic optimization theory and methods, Investment and production theory and fuzzy goal programming approach, this p aper quantitative assessed the fairness of our domestic carbon emissions policie s. Then this paper analyzed the effects of different policies to regional develop ment and fairness and proposed optimization objectives and paths, discussed th e effectiveness of energy structure evolution, carbon emission rights allocation, carbon tax and other regional level economic policies. In order to study domes tic regional impact about climate change and protection, the paper investigated the reasons why different regions form carbon demand contradictions and discu ssed how to resolve it based on the theory of asymmetric information. Then th rough rigorous analysis from the sight of climate change and economic uncerta inty development, a model was constructed to focus on the regional carbon em ission mechanisms and climate protection equitable control under the constraints of regional geographic formations. Technically, based on C#.NET and program developing tools of Arcgis Engine, using methods of intelligent data mining, dynamic system simulation, etc., a decision support system of China's regional carbon emission based on GIS was developed, so it could analyze and evalua te different scenarios under which each district of China's industry evolution, p opulation and economic, demand for carbon emissions and energy evolution ca n be simulated.
First, a lot of domestic and international research results about carbon emi ssion and economic growth were reviewed. Combined with China's actual situa tion, the basic question of this article was raised, which is how to ensure this country's economic growth steady and achieve its target of carbon emission? B ased on the question, energy becomes a factor of production and be introduced into production function. Under the framework of endogenous growth model, dynamic optimization theory was used to examine the intrinsic link and mecha nism of all factors which includes advances in technology, renewable resources of energy and energy efficiency. Theoretical models suggest that as technolog y advances, output growth and energy efficiency will also be improved. Improv ing the proportion and effectiveness of renewable energy in energy system is b eneficial to ease the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emissi on. In addition, the government to take action to promote renewable energy or low-carbon energy industry, reduce the elastic of renewable, could help to inc rease the economic benefits of carbon emission reductions.
Secondly, economic optimization model and WITCH model were mixed to construct an energy model. Through empirical research, the possibility and fea sibility of carbon emission reduction were discussed, and then the trends and r ule of China's energy structure evolution was analyzed. The results show that by improving the secondary industry, China can still get a larger reduction pot ential space. If China doesn't reduce its carbon emission, the curve of carbon emission would still be an inverted U-shaped, but would not reach its carbon emission targets. Conversely, if China reduces its carbon emission, then these a ctions can have a great effect on energy and the effect of non-electric energy is greater than electrical energy, and decline rate of the proportion of coal-elec tric and the increase rate of low-carbon energy would accelerated with the imp lementation of such a constraint.
Third, input-output model and fuzzy goal programing model were used an d the conclusion of energy structure evolution module were introduced to const ruct an optimal model of industrial structure and a scenario analysis model of carbon tax. The results show that industrial structure adjustment was mainly aff ect the quantity of coal and the proportion of gas. Difference between10%an d20%scenarios were mainly reflected on the quality of CO2emission, the20%scenario have a bigger change in amount, but the change in amount were dec lining with optimization.
In addition, the carbon tax policy have a positive effect on the reduction of CO2emission, for example, the emission reduction cost of Finland scenario is9700yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of Swedish scenario is9670yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of EU scenarios is9828yuan/ton-C O2. Finland scenario has a remarkable effect to enhance industry output, and S wedish scenario has a remarkable effect to reduce industry output.
Fourth, the conclusion of optimization model and pervious research finding about allocation of carbon emission were introduced to construct a mixed mo del to discuss the fairness of carbon emission allocation over districts and the dynamic change of allocation principles. The results show that northern region of China is the traditional loss areas of carbon emissions rights, and southern area of China is the traditional surplus areas of carbon emission rights, this pa ttern would not change much in a short term. Moreover, if the carbon emissio n rights of all provinces were clarified by grade, the proportion of loss or sur plus carbon emission rights would have a low possibility to change; and chang ing the weights of principle in carbon emission rights, the base year to comput e carbon emission rights, and the depreciation coefficient or other factors woul d have an impact on regional difference of carbon emission rights. By compari ng four programs of carbon emission rights allocation, it would simple get the conclusion that the when depreciation coefficient were set to0.8, the weight of principle about population accumulate were set to0.6, and the weight of pri nciple about GDP were set to0.4, there have a smallest regional differences in carbon emission rights allocation and was most in favorable to the economic development of backward regions.
Finally, the paper integrated all of the four modules, which include the ec onomic optimization module, the optimal energy structure evolution module, the industrial structure optimization and carbon tax module and the carbon emissi on rights allocation module. Then the relationship of all modules and relationsh ip of data flow were cleared up to mix all of the four modules into a unified integrated assessment models. At last, the paper developed a decision support system based on IAM was developed by using C#and other programming Ian guages.
本文应用经济学原理、动态最优化理论与方法、投入产出模型和目标规划等方法,开展了基本模型的建模,定量评估了中国碳排放政策的国内公平性,依据中国碳减排的目标,提出了最优减排路径,并讨论了能源结构演化、碳排放权分配、碳税等气候经济政策的有效性,分析了不同政策对产业结构、区域发展和区域公平性的影响。方法上,为了研究气候变化与气候保护的国内分区域影响,本文基于信息不对称理论,探讨了不同区域碳需求矛盾形成的原因与解决方案,从气候变化及经济发展不确定性角度进行严格分析及建模,并重点研究了地理结构约束下区域碳排放机制和气候保护的公平控制。技术上,本文以C#.NET为基础,并基于Arcgis Engine二次开发,采用智能数据挖掘、动态系统模拟等方法,开发出一个基于GIS的中国区域碳排放决策支持系统,以此分析和评估不同情景下中国各区域的产业结构优化、碳排放需求、能源演化、碳税变化等因素的气候影响。
首先,回顾了国内外碳排放与经济增长的相关问题和研究成果,结合我国实际情况,遴选出了本文的基本问题,即如何保证经济平稳增长的同时达到减排目的?基于该问题,本文将能源引入了生产函数,在内生增长模型框架下,运用动态最优化理论,考察了技术进步、可再生能源、能源效率等要素之间的内在联系与作用机理。理论模型表明,随着技术进步,产出增长率和能源效率也将提升；提高可再生能源在能源系统中的比重和可再生率,有助于缓解经济增长和碳排放之间的矛盾；此外,从政策上扶持可再生能源或低碳能源,降低可再生能源的弹性,能增加减排的经济效益。
其次,在经济最优化模型基础上引入了WITCH模型的核心部分,完成了混合建模,通过实证研究,讨论了减排的可能性及可行性,并分析了中国能源结构演化的趋势与规律。结果表明,通过改善第二产业,中国仍能获取较大的减排潜力空间；如果中国不减排,碳排放曲线仍呈倒U型,但无法达到碳排放目标；反之,约束碳排放,则约束对非电能源的影响大于电力能源,且随着约束程度的增加,煤电比重下降速度和低碳能源比重上升速度均加快。
再次,采取投入产出理论模型和模糊目标规划模型,引入能源结构演化模块的结论,分别进行产业结构优化建模和碳税情景分析建模,结果表明,产业结构调整主要影响煤炭数量和天然气比重；10%与20%产业结构优化方案影响带来的差别主要是量的差别,20%优化方案变动幅度更大,但优化效果存在边际递减现象；此外,碳税政策能促进CO2排放量减少,其中芬兰情景的减排成本为9700元/吨CO2,瑞典情景为9670元/吨CO2,欧盟情景为9828元/吨CO2；芬兰碳税机制对产业的增强作用最明显,瑞典碳税机制则对产业抑制作用最明显。
然后,采用最优化模型的结论和前人碳排放权分配的研究成果建模,讨论了碳排放权分配的区域公平问题和碳排放权分配原则的动态变化问题,结果表明,中国北方地区为碳排放亏损传统地区,南方为碳排放权盈余传统地区,这种格局在短期内不会发生大的改变；而且,将各省份碳排放权按等级进行划分,则碳排放权亏损或盈余比重越级变化的可能性较小；此外,改变碳排放权分配原则的权重,起算基年和碳排放权折旧系数等因素都会对碳排放权区域差异产生影响,通过4种方案比较,可知当折旧系数为0.8,人口累计原则所占比重为60%,GDP原则所占比重为40%时,碳排放权分配的区域差异最小,也最有利于落后地区的经济发展。
最后,本文整合了四大模块,即经济最优化模块、最优能源结构演化模块、产业结构优化和碳税模块、碳排放权分配模块,并梳理了各模块之间的相互关系和数据流动关系,将各模块整合为一个统一的综合集成评估模型(IAM),并基于C#等程序设计语言,开发出了基于IAM模型的决策支持系统。在方法学上,这个系统是以以C#.NET为基础,并基于ARCGIS Engine二次开发,结合数据挖掘与数字模拟实习系统功能需求,最终开发出一个基于GIS的中国区域碳排放决策支持系统(REGCERS), Regional Economic Growth and Carbon Emission s Reduction Strategy Decision Support System)。作为应用,本文分析和评估了不同情景下中国各区域的产业进化、人口经济、碳排放需求、能源进化等气候影响。
In order to responding to climate change on the regional level, Intergrated Regional Assessment of Global Climate Change Model(IRAM) should be deve loped. Combined with the practical needs of our region's carbon emissions, and based on the carbon emission economic principles, this paper researched and developed a regional energy and carbon emission strategic decision support syst em as the core exploration of IRAM.
Applying econometric methods, dynamic optimization theory and methods, Investment and production theory and fuzzy goal programming approach, this p aper quantitative assessed the fairness of our domestic carbon emissions policie s. Then this paper analyzed the effects of different policies to regional develop ment and fairness and proposed optimization objectives and paths, discussed th e effectiveness of energy structure evolution, carbon emission rights allocation, carbon tax and other regional level economic policies. In order to study domes tic regional impact about climate change and protection, the paper investigated the reasons why different regions form carbon demand contradictions and discu ssed how to resolve it based on the theory of asymmetric information. Then th rough rigorous analysis from the sight of climate change and economic uncerta inty development, a model was constructed to focus on the regional carbon em ission mechanisms and climate protection equitable control under the constraints of regional geographic formations. Technically, based on C#.NET and program developing tools of Arcgis Engine, using methods of intelligent data mining, dynamic system simulation, etc., a decision support system of China's regional carbon emission based on GIS was developed, so it could analyze and evalua te different scenarios under which each district of China's industry evolution, p opulation and economic, demand for carbon emissions and energy evolution ca n be simulated.
First, a lot of domestic and international research results about carbon emi ssion and economic growth were reviewed. Combined with China's actual situa tion, the basic question of this article was raised, which is how to ensure this country's economic growth steady and achieve its target of carbon emission? B ased on the question, energy becomes a factor of production and be introduced into production function. Under the framework of endogenous growth model, dynamic optimization theory was used to examine the intrinsic link and mecha nism of all factors which includes advances in technology, renewable resources of energy and energy efficiency. Theoretical models suggest that as technolog y advances, output growth and energy efficiency will also be improved. Improv ing the proportion and effectiveness of renewable energy in energy system is b eneficial to ease the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emissi on. In addition, the government to take action to promote renewable energy or low-carbon energy industry, reduce the elastic of renewable, could help to inc rease the economic benefits of carbon emission reductions.
Secondly, economic optimization model and WITCH model were mixed to construct an energy model. Through empirical research, the possibility and fea sibility of carbon emission reduction were discussed, and then the trends and r ule of China's energy structure evolution was analyzed. The results show that by improving the secondary industry, China can still get a larger reduction pot ential space. If China doesn't reduce its carbon emission, the curve of carbon emission would still be an inverted U-shaped, but would not reach its carbon emission targets. Conversely, if China reduces its carbon emission, then these a ctions can have a great effect on energy and the effect of non-electric energy is greater than electrical energy, and decline rate of the proportion of coal-elec tric and the increase rate of low-carbon energy would accelerated with the imp lementation of such a constraint.
Third, input-output model and fuzzy goal programing model were used an d the conclusion of energy structure evolution module were introduced to const ruct an optimal model of industrial structure and a scenario analysis model of carbon tax. The results show that industrial structure adjustment was mainly aff ect the quantity of coal and the proportion of gas. Difference between10%an d20%scenarios were mainly reflected on the quality of CO2emission, the20%scenario have a bigger change in amount, but the change in amount were dec lining with optimization.
In addition, the carbon tax policy have a positive effect on the reduction of CO2emission, for example, the emission reduction cost of Finland scenario is9700yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of Swedish scenario is9670yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of EU scenarios is9828yuan/ton-C O2. Finland scenario has a remarkable effect to enhance industry output, and S wedish scenario has a remarkable effect to reduce industry output.
Fourth, the conclusion of optimization model and pervious research finding about allocation of carbon emission were introduced to construct a mixed mo del to discuss the fairness of carbon emission allocation over districts and the dynamic change of allocation principles. The results show that northern region of China is the traditional loss areas of carbon emissions rights, and southern area of China is the traditional surplus areas of carbon emission rights, this pa ttern would not change much in a short term. Moreover, if the carbon emissio n rights of all provinces were clarified by grade, the proportion of loss or sur plus carbon emission rights would have a low possibility to change; and chang ing the weights of principle in carbon emission rights, the base year to comput e carbon emission rights, and the depreciation coefficient or other factors woul d have an impact on regional difference of carbon emission rights. By compari ng four programs of carbon emission rights allocation, it would simple get the conclusion that the when depreciation coefficient were set to0.8, the weight of principle about population accumulate were set to0.6, and the weight of pri nciple about GDP were set to0.4, there have a smallest regional differences in carbon emission rights allocation and was most in favorable to the economic development of backward regions.
Finally, the paper integrated all of the four modules, which include the ec onomic optimization module, the optimal energy structure evolution module, the industrial structure optimization and carbon tax module and the carbon emissi on rights allocation module. Then the relationship of all modules and relationsh ip of data flow were cleared up to mix all of the four modules into a unified integrated assessment models. At last, the paper developed a decision support system based on IAM was developed by using C#and other programming Ian guages.
引文
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