世界大麦贸易格局及对我国大麦产业影响研究
摘要
大麦是世界上重要的农作物之一。由于适合贫瘠干旱地区生长且用途较广,大麦在很多国家都有广泛种植。中国是世界大麦的主要消费国,也是进口大国。随着农产品贸易的全球化发展和我国大麦供给对国际市场依赖性的增加,外部条件对国内大麦产业的影响更加显著。
本文立足于世界大麦贸易格局和与我国大麦产业发展关系,对全球大麦进出口市场、大麦价格决定与定价权、中国大麦供需平衡、大麦进口对产业影响和现有大麦政策等方面进行了系统研究,分析中定量和定性分析相结合,首次运用权商模型、回归模型等多种计量经济方法对大麦主要进出口国的定价权、我国大麦进口的大国效应、期货价格影响、进口依存度影响因素等进行定量研究,并在综合对比分析我国和世界相关国家大麦政策的基础上,提出了加强统筹规划,通过建立完善、系统的大麦政策体系来促进我国大麦产业持续健康发展的建议。
从全球范围来看,近二十多年来,农业科技发展使大麦单产不断提高,但由于对大豆、玉米等作物的需求增加,世界大麦的总种植面积有所下降,大麦贸易量增速逐渐下滑。此外,大麦贸易的区域性更加明显,出口更加向欧洲集中,进口重心逐渐由欧洲的发达国家向南美和亚洲的发展中国家转移。乌克兰、法国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大等是世界大麦的主要出口国,沙特阿拉伯、中国、日本等则成为世界大麦的主要进口国家。
我国主要的大麦种植区域集中在华东、东北、西北三个区域。改革开放以来,随着中国啤酒业等大麦加工产业的快速发展,国产大麦越来越无法满足需求,另外,近年来我国在粮食作物方面的鼓励种植政策又进一步抑制了大麦的种植,从而导致了中国大麦进口量的快速增长。当前,我国大麦的总进口量居世界第二,啤酒大麦进口量则居世界第一。巨大的消费需求和进口量对国内大麦市场和大麦产业造成了很大的影响。
受通货膨胀、供需消长、生产要素和运输成本上涨等多种因素的影响,在过去的20多年中,世界大麦贸易价格在波动中呈现整体持续上升态势。国际大麦价格变化对我国内大麦价格影响很大,中国的大麦价格也呈现整体波动上升。我国大麦进口量大,但在大麦贸易定价权方面处于弱势地位。此外,国际大麦期货市场价格对我国大麦批发价格也有明显的影响。
从供需来看,依赖大量进口来调节我国大麦供需平衡的局面在相当长时期不会改变。在过去的20多年中,我国大麦进口的主要来源国呈现稳中有变的态势。通过采用进口集中率指数(CRn)、赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数(HHI)、基尼系数这三种绝对和相对指标来分析测算,我国大麦市场的进口集中度都呈现出极高的特征。此外,我国大麦的进口依存度也很高,入世前后的关税变化及国内啤酒产量等多种因素对进口依存度都造成一定影响。总体来看,进口大麦对我国大麦产业发展等各方面的影响有利有弊,关键在于如何减少进口风险并促进国内大麦产业健康发展。
目前,我国在大麦生产方面还缺乏配套的支农政策,与其它粮食作物相比,大麦在政策支持方面处于劣势地位。作为部分边疆地区和西部地区的一种重要农作物,作为啤酒产业发展的重要原料,国内大麦产业的健康持续发展至关重要。为此,本文在借鉴相关国家大麦政策的基础上,认为我国政府部门应统筹考虑,制定一套完善合理并具有长效性的大麦综合支持政策。政策制定时一定要充分考虑国内产业的促进和发展需要,在推动大麦生产满足我国大麦产业发展需要的同时,注意合理利用好国际大麦市场,以实现我国大麦产业整体发展的利益最大化。
本文建议在大麦政策制定方面形成一套基本准则,一是要明确大麦的用途,给大麦定好位,尽早把大麦纳入到农业补贴体系中去；二是要加强贸易支持和引导,坚守并充分利用好有限的贸易政策空间,鼓励进口多元化,提高进口的可调控力度；三是要注重从产业化发展的角度出发,兼顾好大麦产业上、中、下游的一体化需求。最后,本文基于以上综合分析的基础上,从大麦的生产流通、贸易和产业发展的角度提出了具体的建议和措施。
As one of the major crops in the world, barley is wildly planted in many countries due to its multifunction for mankind and animal as well as to its great adaption to lean soil and arid regions. As a major consumer of the world barely, China imports a lot each year. With globalization of agro-product trade and the Chinese increasing reliability on the international market, impact of external condition become obvious on barley industry in the country.
Based on the relationship between the global trade pattern and the Chinese industrial development of barley, researches were done in terms of world import&export market, prices determination and pricing power, supply&demand equilibrium, import influence on industry as well as existing policies. With combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, the number of economic metrology approaches were used in pricing power of major import and export countries, large country effect, influence of future prices and dependence degree on import, whereby recommendations were made on prompting the sustainable and sound growth of Chinese barley industry through overall planning and creating sound and systemic policy system.
Over recent two decades, the development of agricultural science and technologies facilitates the continuous improvement of barley yield in world-wild view, while the total planting area and trade growth rate of barley declined due to the booming demand for soybean and corn. Furthermore, the trade flows of barley are more concentrated on certain regions where the Europe has become the main export one and the developing countries in Asia and South America are being the major importers. Ukraine, France, Russia, Australia, Canada etc. grow out as key exporters of barley but Saudi Arabia, China, Japan etc. turn primary importers.
Barley production is mainly concentrated on east China as well as northeast and northwest China. Since the reform and opening-up policy came into effect, the barley produced in the country could no longer meet the growing demand with the fast development of beer industry and other processing industries. In addition, the policy encouraging development of food crops in China has further suppressed the cultivation of barley in recent years, leading to its rapid growth of import. At present, China's total imports of barley rank second in the world, while malting barley imports rank first globally. Huge consumer demand and imports have a great impact on the domestic barley markets and industry.
Influenced by a variety of factors such as inflation, change of supply and demand, production and transport costs, the world barley trade price showed an overall rising trend in fluctuations over past two decades. Changes in the international barley price have a great impact on the domestic barley price, and China's barley prices also perform an overall unsteady rise. From1991to2010, except for the sudden rise and fall of international barley prices due to the food crisis in2008, China's barley import prices are very similar to domestic barley prices in the volatility trend. With a large import of barley, China is still a in weak position of pricing power in barley trade. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the international barley futures market price and the domestic barley wholesale price.
In view of the domestic supply and demand, dependence on large import couldn't be changed for keeping balance of supply and demand in China for a quite long time. In the past two decades, the basic barley exporters to China indicate changes in a stable trend. In a comprehensive analysis by CRn, Hhi and Gini-coefficient, China's barley market has a high degree of import centralization. Furthermore, the dependence degree on import is also very high and it is affected by changes of tariff duty since China joined WTO and domestic beer production etc. In general, imported barley could cut both ways in for the development of Chinese barley industry, and it depends on how to reduce the import risks and promote the healthy development of domestic barley industry.
At present, there is still lack of favorable policy to support barley production in the country. Compared with other food crops, barley is at a disadvantage position in terms of policy support. The sustainable healthy development of domestic industry of barley, as an important crop in marginal and western regions and important raw material to the beer industry, is essential.
To this end, this article, based on using barley policies of relevant countries for reference, states that Chinese government should formulate a set of sound, reasonable and long-term barley support policies. Policy makers must give full consideration to the promotion and development needs of the domestic industry and pay attention to the rational use of international barley markets while promoting domestic barley production to meet the needs of China's barley industrial development, in order to maximize the benefits of the overall domestic barley industrial development.
This article suggests a set of basic guidelines in barley policy-making. First, it should specify the use of barley, set a target, and incorporate barley into the system of agricultural subsidies as early as possible; second, it is to strengthen trade support and guidance, make full use of our limited trade policies, encourage import diversification, and improve import control efforts; third, it has to pay attention to industrial development, and give consideration to the integration needs in the whole barley industrial chain. Finally, this article has put forward specific recommendations and measures from barley production and distribution, trade and industrial development based on the above comprehensive analysis.
本文立足于世界大麦贸易格局和与我国大麦产业发展关系,对全球大麦进出口市场、大麦价格决定与定价权、中国大麦供需平衡、大麦进口对产业影响和现有大麦政策等方面进行了系统研究,分析中定量和定性分析相结合,首次运用权商模型、回归模型等多种计量经济方法对大麦主要进出口国的定价权、我国大麦进口的大国效应、期货价格影响、进口依存度影响因素等进行定量研究,并在综合对比分析我国和世界相关国家大麦政策的基础上,提出了加强统筹规划,通过建立完善、系统的大麦政策体系来促进我国大麦产业持续健康发展的建议。
从全球范围来看,近二十多年来,农业科技发展使大麦单产不断提高,但由于对大豆、玉米等作物的需求增加,世界大麦的总种植面积有所下降,大麦贸易量增速逐渐下滑。此外,大麦贸易的区域性更加明显,出口更加向欧洲集中,进口重心逐渐由欧洲的发达国家向南美和亚洲的发展中国家转移。乌克兰、法国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大等是世界大麦的主要出口国,沙特阿拉伯、中国、日本等则成为世界大麦的主要进口国家。
我国主要的大麦种植区域集中在华东、东北、西北三个区域。改革开放以来,随着中国啤酒业等大麦加工产业的快速发展,国产大麦越来越无法满足需求,另外,近年来我国在粮食作物方面的鼓励种植政策又进一步抑制了大麦的种植,从而导致了中国大麦进口量的快速增长。当前,我国大麦的总进口量居世界第二,啤酒大麦进口量则居世界第一。巨大的消费需求和进口量对国内大麦市场和大麦产业造成了很大的影响。
受通货膨胀、供需消长、生产要素和运输成本上涨等多种因素的影响,在过去的20多年中,世界大麦贸易价格在波动中呈现整体持续上升态势。国际大麦价格变化对我国内大麦价格影响很大,中国的大麦价格也呈现整体波动上升。我国大麦进口量大,但在大麦贸易定价权方面处于弱势地位。此外,国际大麦期货市场价格对我国大麦批发价格也有明显的影响。
从供需来看,依赖大量进口来调节我国大麦供需平衡的局面在相当长时期不会改变。在过去的20多年中,我国大麦进口的主要来源国呈现稳中有变的态势。通过采用进口集中率指数(CRn)、赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数(HHI)、基尼系数这三种绝对和相对指标来分析测算,我国大麦市场的进口集中度都呈现出极高的特征。此外,我国大麦的进口依存度也很高,入世前后的关税变化及国内啤酒产量等多种因素对进口依存度都造成一定影响。总体来看,进口大麦对我国大麦产业发展等各方面的影响有利有弊,关键在于如何减少进口风险并促进国内大麦产业健康发展。
目前,我国在大麦生产方面还缺乏配套的支农政策,与其它粮食作物相比,大麦在政策支持方面处于劣势地位。作为部分边疆地区和西部地区的一种重要农作物,作为啤酒产业发展的重要原料,国内大麦产业的健康持续发展至关重要。为此,本文在借鉴相关国家大麦政策的基础上,认为我国政府部门应统筹考虑,制定一套完善合理并具有长效性的大麦综合支持政策。政策制定时一定要充分考虑国内产业的促进和发展需要,在推动大麦生产满足我国大麦产业发展需要的同时,注意合理利用好国际大麦市场,以实现我国大麦产业整体发展的利益最大化。
本文建议在大麦政策制定方面形成一套基本准则,一是要明确大麦的用途,给大麦定好位,尽早把大麦纳入到农业补贴体系中去；二是要加强贸易支持和引导,坚守并充分利用好有限的贸易政策空间,鼓励进口多元化,提高进口的可调控力度；三是要注重从产业化发展的角度出发,兼顾好大麦产业上、中、下游的一体化需求。最后,本文基于以上综合分析的基础上,从大麦的生产流通、贸易和产业发展的角度提出了具体的建议和措施。
As one of the major crops in the world, barley is wildly planted in many countries due to its multifunction for mankind and animal as well as to its great adaption to lean soil and arid regions. As a major consumer of the world barely, China imports a lot each year. With globalization of agro-product trade and the Chinese increasing reliability on the international market, impact of external condition become obvious on barley industry in the country.
Based on the relationship between the global trade pattern and the Chinese industrial development of barley, researches were done in terms of world import&export market, prices determination and pricing power, supply&demand equilibrium, import influence on industry as well as existing policies. With combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, the number of economic metrology approaches were used in pricing power of major import and export countries, large country effect, influence of future prices and dependence degree on import, whereby recommendations were made on prompting the sustainable and sound growth of Chinese barley industry through overall planning and creating sound and systemic policy system.
Over recent two decades, the development of agricultural science and technologies facilitates the continuous improvement of barley yield in world-wild view, while the total planting area and trade growth rate of barley declined due to the booming demand for soybean and corn. Furthermore, the trade flows of barley are more concentrated on certain regions where the Europe has become the main export one and the developing countries in Asia and South America are being the major importers. Ukraine, France, Russia, Australia, Canada etc. grow out as key exporters of barley but Saudi Arabia, China, Japan etc. turn primary importers.
Barley production is mainly concentrated on east China as well as northeast and northwest China. Since the reform and opening-up policy came into effect, the barley produced in the country could no longer meet the growing demand with the fast development of beer industry and other processing industries. In addition, the policy encouraging development of food crops in China has further suppressed the cultivation of barley in recent years, leading to its rapid growth of import. At present, China's total imports of barley rank second in the world, while malting barley imports rank first globally. Huge consumer demand and imports have a great impact on the domestic barley markets and industry.
Influenced by a variety of factors such as inflation, change of supply and demand, production and transport costs, the world barley trade price showed an overall rising trend in fluctuations over past two decades. Changes in the international barley price have a great impact on the domestic barley price, and China's barley prices also perform an overall unsteady rise. From1991to2010, except for the sudden rise and fall of international barley prices due to the food crisis in2008, China's barley import prices are very similar to domestic barley prices in the volatility trend. With a large import of barley, China is still a in weak position of pricing power in barley trade. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the international barley futures market price and the domestic barley wholesale price.
In view of the domestic supply and demand, dependence on large import couldn't be changed for keeping balance of supply and demand in China for a quite long time. In the past two decades, the basic barley exporters to China indicate changes in a stable trend. In a comprehensive analysis by CRn, Hhi and Gini-coefficient, China's barley market has a high degree of import centralization. Furthermore, the dependence degree on import is also very high and it is affected by changes of tariff duty since China joined WTO and domestic beer production etc. In general, imported barley could cut both ways in for the development of Chinese barley industry, and it depends on how to reduce the import risks and promote the healthy development of domestic barley industry.
At present, there is still lack of favorable policy to support barley production in the country. Compared with other food crops, barley is at a disadvantage position in terms of policy support. The sustainable healthy development of domestic industry of barley, as an important crop in marginal and western regions and important raw material to the beer industry, is essential.
To this end, this article, based on using barley policies of relevant countries for reference, states that Chinese government should formulate a set of sound, reasonable and long-term barley support policies. Policy makers must give full consideration to the promotion and development needs of the domestic industry and pay attention to the rational use of international barley markets while promoting domestic barley production to meet the needs of China's barley industrial development, in order to maximize the benefits of the overall domestic barley industrial development.
This article suggests a set of basic guidelines in barley policy-making. First, it should specify the use of barley, set a target, and incorporate barley into the system of agricultural subsidies as early as possible; second, it is to strengthen trade support and guidance, make full use of our limited trade policies, encourage import diversification, and improve import control efforts; third, it has to pay attention to industrial development, and give consideration to the integration needs in the whole barley industrial chain. Finally, this article has put forward specific recommendations and measures from barley production and distribution, trade and industrial development based on the above comprehensive analysis.
引文
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