基于资源与环境约束的中国能源供需格局发展研究
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摘要
能源是社会进步、经济发展的重要支撑性保障因素,能源系统的科学发展受到了世界性的广泛重视,针对能源供需发展的理论研究也在不断深入。近年来,国家及地区的经济发展水平受能源供应保障体系的制约作用越来越大,坚持长期、有效的能源可持续发展战略已经成为各国未来发展规划的重要组成部分。然而,随着能源资源的大量开采使用,能源消费总量的持续增长,能源消耗带来的环境污染问题日益突出,资源与环境对能源系统的约束作用越来越强,资源与环境问题已经成为制约社会发展的重要核心问题。
我国是世界上人口最多的国家,同时也是世界能源生产和消费大国,未来我国能源供需问题仍将十分突出：人均能源资源占有量低,一次能源储量及结构问题突出,能源使用污染问题严重,这些问题都将严重影响到我国能源供需体系的长期稳定发展。然而,针对能源供需体系发展的全面分析缺乏系统性的依据,如何更好的结合资源与环境的约束作用分析我国的能源发展至关重要。本文提出了我国“能源供需格局”的概念,并结合其内涵展开了深入的发展演变分析及管理方法挖掘,为综合提高新环境要求下我国能源供需的科学管理水平提供了一定的理论分析依据与实践借鉴。
论文的主要工作包括以下几个方面：
(1)本文提出了我国能源供需格局的概念,并从“总量、结构、布局、流向”四个方面阐释了能源供需格局的内涵。针对国内外能源供需管理研究动态的总结,以及世界、我国能源供需发展特点的分析,为后续研究提供了很好的借鉴及分析基础。
(2)综合介绍了能源供需格局分析的相关基础理论。明确了能源与能源系统的内涵,分析了能源的资源约束理论及环境约束理论,进一步概述了具有一定指导作用的能源经济学、3E系统理论、可持续发展理论的基本内容体系,为深入开展资源与环境约束下的能源供需格局管理提供了较好的理论基础。
(3)全面梳理了我国能源供需格局的发展演变过程。在时间发展维度,总结了我国能源生产情况、能源消费情况以及能源供需平衡情况；在空间发展维度,分析了我国能源供需空间差异情况以及能源运输体系。提供了大量的数据分析基础,有助于深入总结我国能源供需格局发展的过程及现状,挖掘我国能源供需格局发展的特点及问题。
(4)对我国能源供需格局发展的影响因素进行了分析。从能源资源及供给能力、能源消费、能源运输三个方面,总结了能源供需格局的内部影响因素；从经济因素、社会因素、政策因素、国际因素四个方面,总结了能源供需格局的外部影响因素。深入挖掘了不同因素的影响机理及影响效果,对未来合理把握能源供需格局的发展具有重要的参考价值。对影响能源需求的主要因素进行了科学的协整分析,构建了能源需求VAR模型,验证了模型的稳定性及协整性,分析了影响因素与能源需求的因果关系。
(5)开展了资源与环境约束下能源需求预测方法研究。梳理了传统的能源需求预测方法,并利用组合预测模型进行了能源需求预测分析。提出了一种基于LMDI法协同情景预测的能源需求预测思想,能够很好的兼顾资源与环境的约束作用,进行更加合理的能源需求预测研究,并进行了具体的实证分析,为考虑资源与环境约束作用下科学提高能源需求预测准确性提供了方法手段。
(6)研究了我国能源供需格局发展的综合评价体系。考虑了资源与环境的约束,引入了能源供需收敛系数、能源矩等指标内容,构建了综合的能源供需格局发展评价指标体系。结合本文研究特点,提出了一种分层优选混合评价模型,并对我国能源供需格局发展进行了实证评价研究。为合理分析我国能源供需格局动态发展水平,提供了很好的实践借鉴基础。
(7)结合能源结构预测分析开展了能源供需格局发展优化研究。总结了能源结构优化发展对推动供需格局科学管理的重要性,利用马尔科夫预测模型进行了能源结构发展预测研究,并基于修正转移概率矩阵的思想优化了能源结构发展的目标,提出了深入调整能源结构推动供需格局优化发展的实施路径。
(8)开展了基于输煤输电综合比较分析的能源供需格局发展优化研究。分析了优化煤炭运输体系对供需格局的重要意义,结合价差法分析了输煤输电的经济性,利用线性规划法比较了输煤输电的能源利用效率,基于环境承载力理念分析了输煤输电对环境的影响,并提出了基于输煤输电并举优化能源供需格局的发展策略。
(9)结合我国能源供需格局的相关分析基础,对格局发展的问题进行了总结,并提出了具有较强应用性的建议措施。介绍了我国能源供需格局分析软件的基本架构,以及应用的基本价值。
论文的研究成果能够为分析我国能源供需格局的内在结构及发展趋势提供很好的依据,为优化我国能源供需格局管理水平提供一定的理论参考和借鉴,具有较好的理论价值及现实意义。
Energy is one of the key supportive safeguard factors of social advance and economic development. The importance of the scientific development of the energy system has been recognized world-widely. Theoretical research on the energy supply and demand development has been deepening continuously. In recent years, the national and regional economic development level is more and more impeded by the security system of energy supply. However, with the considerable exploitation of energy resources and the continuous growth of total energy consumption, the problems of environment pollution brought by energy expenditure have been prominent, and the restraints on the energy system of resources and environment have been even stronger. The issue of resources and environment has been the core problem which confines social development.
As a country with the largest population, meanwhile the major energy production and consumption country in the world, China is facing the unprecedented energy supply and demand issues in the future:low per capita energy resources occupancy; undesirable primary energy reserves and its structure; serious pollution problems of the use of energy. These issues will greatly affect the long-term stable development of the energy supply and demand system of our country. However, there are neither systematical references to fully analyzing the development of the energy supply and demand system, nor researches on the constraint effects of resources and environment on the development of energy. The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed in this paper, and the deeper analysis of its evolution and excavation of relevant management methods are then conducted combined with its connotation, which provides theoretical reference and practical guidance for the comprehensive upgrade of the scientific management level of energy supply and demand of China.
The principle work of the dissertation includes:
(1) The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed, and the connotation of which is explained by four aspects of "gross, structure, layout and flow". The international and domestic researches on the energy supply and demand pattern are summarized, the development features of the energy supply and demand pattern are analyzed, which provides sound reference and basis for the following-up studies.
(2) The relevant theories of analyzing the energy supply and demand pattern are introduced. The connotation of energy and the energy system is defined, the resources constraint theories and environment constraint theories of energy are analyzed, the principles and content systems of energy economics,3E systems, sustainable development theory are further summarized, which provides sound theoretical basis for the management of energy supply and demand pattern under the constraints of resources and environment.
(3) The evolution process of the energy supply and demand pattern of China is summarized all-around. In the dimension of temporal evolution, the situation of energy production, consumption and the co-ordination of energy supply and demand are summarized; while in the dimension of spatial evolution, the energy spatial difference and transportation system of China are analyzed. A large amount of data is provided here to help summarize the process and current situation, and excavate the features and problems of the energy supply and demand development of China.
(4) The influencing factors of the development of energy supply and demand are analyzed. The internal influencing factors are proposed from three respects, which are energy resources and the capacity of supply, energy consumption and energy transportation; the external influencing factors are proposed from four respects, which are economic, social, policy and international factors. The influencing mechanisms and effects of each factor are deeply excavated, which provides important reference valued for seizing the development of energy supply and demand pattern in the future. The co-integration analysis of the main influencing factors is conducted, the VAR model of energy demand is built, the stability and co-integration of the model is verified, and the causality of the influencing factors and energy demand is also analyzed.
(5) The energy demand forecasting method is studied under the constraints of resources and environment. The traditional energy demand forecasting methods are introduced, and the analysis of the energy demand forecasting is taken by the combination forecasting model. An energy demand forecasting thought based on LMDI model joint with scenario prediction is proposed, which finely consider both constraint effects of resources and environment. The more reasonable energy demand forecasting is put forward, and the specific case study is conducted, which provides means for improve the forecasting accuracy of energy demand under the constraints of resources and environment.
(6) The comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern of China is studied. Considering the constraints of resources and environment, some index contents are introduced, such as convergence coefficient of energy supply and demand, energy matrix. A comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern is established. A classified optimization mix evaluation model is proposed, and the case study is conducted accordingly, which provides practical basis for reasonably analyzing the dynamic development level of energy supply and demand pattern of China.
(7) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the analysis of energy structure forecasting. The importance of the development of the optimization of energy structure onto promoting the scientific management of energy supply and demand pattern is summarized. The study of energy structure forecasting is with the Markov model. The development goal of energy structure is optimized by the thought based on revised transfer probability matrix. And the implementation path to deeply adjusting energy structure and pushing the optimized development of energy supply and demand pattern is put forward.
(8) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the comprehensive comparison between coal transportation and power transmission. The meaning of optimizing the coal transportation system to the energy supply and demand pattern is analyzed; the economy of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed with the method of price difference; the energy utilization efficiency is of coal transportation and power transmission is compared by linear programming technique; the environmental impact of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed based on the thought of environmental carrying capacity, and the development strategy of optimization the energy supply and demand pattern is proposed based on the thought of developing coal transportation and power transmission simultaneously.
(9) The issues of the development of energy pattern are summarized combined with the analytical basis of the energy supply and demand pattern of China. The applicable suggestions are proposed. The basic structure of the energy supply and demand pattern analysis software is introduced, as well as its application values.
The research achievements of this paper will provide sound foundations for analyzing the internal structure and development trend of energy supply and demand pattern of China, and provide theoretical reference for optimizing the management level of energy supply and demand pattern, which has both theoretical values and practical meanings.
我国是世界上人口最多的国家,同时也是世界能源生产和消费大国,未来我国能源供需问题仍将十分突出：人均能源资源占有量低,一次能源储量及结构问题突出,能源使用污染问题严重,这些问题都将严重影响到我国能源供需体系的长期稳定发展。然而,针对能源供需体系发展的全面分析缺乏系统性的依据,如何更好的结合资源与环境的约束作用分析我国的能源发展至关重要。本文提出了我国“能源供需格局”的概念,并结合其内涵展开了深入的发展演变分析及管理方法挖掘,为综合提高新环境要求下我国能源供需的科学管理水平提供了一定的理论分析依据与实践借鉴。
论文的主要工作包括以下几个方面：
(1)本文提出了我国能源供需格局的概念,并从“总量、结构、布局、流向”四个方面阐释了能源供需格局的内涵。针对国内外能源供需管理研究动态的总结,以及世界、我国能源供需发展特点的分析,为后续研究提供了很好的借鉴及分析基础。
(2)综合介绍了能源供需格局分析的相关基础理论。明确了能源与能源系统的内涵,分析了能源的资源约束理论及环境约束理论,进一步概述了具有一定指导作用的能源经济学、3E系统理论、可持续发展理论的基本内容体系,为深入开展资源与环境约束下的能源供需格局管理提供了较好的理论基础。
(3)全面梳理了我国能源供需格局的发展演变过程。在时间发展维度,总结了我国能源生产情况、能源消费情况以及能源供需平衡情况；在空间发展维度,分析了我国能源供需空间差异情况以及能源运输体系。提供了大量的数据分析基础,有助于深入总结我国能源供需格局发展的过程及现状,挖掘我国能源供需格局发展的特点及问题。
(4)对我国能源供需格局发展的影响因素进行了分析。从能源资源及供给能力、能源消费、能源运输三个方面,总结了能源供需格局的内部影响因素；从经济因素、社会因素、政策因素、国际因素四个方面,总结了能源供需格局的外部影响因素。深入挖掘了不同因素的影响机理及影响效果,对未来合理把握能源供需格局的发展具有重要的参考价值。对影响能源需求的主要因素进行了科学的协整分析,构建了能源需求VAR模型,验证了模型的稳定性及协整性,分析了影响因素与能源需求的因果关系。
(5)开展了资源与环境约束下能源需求预测方法研究。梳理了传统的能源需求预测方法,并利用组合预测模型进行了能源需求预测分析。提出了一种基于LMDI法协同情景预测的能源需求预测思想,能够很好的兼顾资源与环境的约束作用,进行更加合理的能源需求预测研究,并进行了具体的实证分析,为考虑资源与环境约束作用下科学提高能源需求预测准确性提供了方法手段。
(6)研究了我国能源供需格局发展的综合评价体系。考虑了资源与环境的约束,引入了能源供需收敛系数、能源矩等指标内容,构建了综合的能源供需格局发展评价指标体系。结合本文研究特点,提出了一种分层优选混合评价模型,并对我国能源供需格局发展进行了实证评价研究。为合理分析我国能源供需格局动态发展水平,提供了很好的实践借鉴基础。
(7)结合能源结构预测分析开展了能源供需格局发展优化研究。总结了能源结构优化发展对推动供需格局科学管理的重要性,利用马尔科夫预测模型进行了能源结构发展预测研究,并基于修正转移概率矩阵的思想优化了能源结构发展的目标,提出了深入调整能源结构推动供需格局优化发展的实施路径。
(8)开展了基于输煤输电综合比较分析的能源供需格局发展优化研究。分析了优化煤炭运输体系对供需格局的重要意义,结合价差法分析了输煤输电的经济性,利用线性规划法比较了输煤输电的能源利用效率,基于环境承载力理念分析了输煤输电对环境的影响,并提出了基于输煤输电并举优化能源供需格局的发展策略。
(9)结合我国能源供需格局的相关分析基础,对格局发展的问题进行了总结,并提出了具有较强应用性的建议措施。介绍了我国能源供需格局分析软件的基本架构,以及应用的基本价值。
论文的研究成果能够为分析我国能源供需格局的内在结构及发展趋势提供很好的依据,为优化我国能源供需格局管理水平提供一定的理论参考和借鉴,具有较好的理论价值及现实意义。
Energy is one of the key supportive safeguard factors of social advance and economic development. The importance of the scientific development of the energy system has been recognized world-widely. Theoretical research on the energy supply and demand development has been deepening continuously. In recent years, the national and regional economic development level is more and more impeded by the security system of energy supply. However, with the considerable exploitation of energy resources and the continuous growth of total energy consumption, the problems of environment pollution brought by energy expenditure have been prominent, and the restraints on the energy system of resources and environment have been even stronger. The issue of resources and environment has been the core problem which confines social development.
As a country with the largest population, meanwhile the major energy production and consumption country in the world, China is facing the unprecedented energy supply and demand issues in the future:low per capita energy resources occupancy; undesirable primary energy reserves and its structure; serious pollution problems of the use of energy. These issues will greatly affect the long-term stable development of the energy supply and demand system of our country. However, there are neither systematical references to fully analyzing the development of the energy supply and demand system, nor researches on the constraint effects of resources and environment on the development of energy. The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed in this paper, and the deeper analysis of its evolution and excavation of relevant management methods are then conducted combined with its connotation, which provides theoretical reference and practical guidance for the comprehensive upgrade of the scientific management level of energy supply and demand of China.
The principle work of the dissertation includes:
(1) The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed, and the connotation of which is explained by four aspects of "gross, structure, layout and flow". The international and domestic researches on the energy supply and demand pattern are summarized, the development features of the energy supply and demand pattern are analyzed, which provides sound reference and basis for the following-up studies.
(2) The relevant theories of analyzing the energy supply and demand pattern are introduced. The connotation of energy and the energy system is defined, the resources constraint theories and environment constraint theories of energy are analyzed, the principles and content systems of energy economics,3E systems, sustainable development theory are further summarized, which provides sound theoretical basis for the management of energy supply and demand pattern under the constraints of resources and environment.
(3) The evolution process of the energy supply and demand pattern of China is summarized all-around. In the dimension of temporal evolution, the situation of energy production, consumption and the co-ordination of energy supply and demand are summarized; while in the dimension of spatial evolution, the energy spatial difference and transportation system of China are analyzed. A large amount of data is provided here to help summarize the process and current situation, and excavate the features and problems of the energy supply and demand development of China.
(4) The influencing factors of the development of energy supply and demand are analyzed. The internal influencing factors are proposed from three respects, which are energy resources and the capacity of supply, energy consumption and energy transportation; the external influencing factors are proposed from four respects, which are economic, social, policy and international factors. The influencing mechanisms and effects of each factor are deeply excavated, which provides important reference valued for seizing the development of energy supply and demand pattern in the future. The co-integration analysis of the main influencing factors is conducted, the VAR model of energy demand is built, the stability and co-integration of the model is verified, and the causality of the influencing factors and energy demand is also analyzed.
(5) The energy demand forecasting method is studied under the constraints of resources and environment. The traditional energy demand forecasting methods are introduced, and the analysis of the energy demand forecasting is taken by the combination forecasting model. An energy demand forecasting thought based on LMDI model joint with scenario prediction is proposed, which finely consider both constraint effects of resources and environment. The more reasonable energy demand forecasting is put forward, and the specific case study is conducted, which provides means for improve the forecasting accuracy of energy demand under the constraints of resources and environment.
(6) The comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern of China is studied. Considering the constraints of resources and environment, some index contents are introduced, such as convergence coefficient of energy supply and demand, energy matrix. A comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern is established. A classified optimization mix evaluation model is proposed, and the case study is conducted accordingly, which provides practical basis for reasonably analyzing the dynamic development level of energy supply and demand pattern of China.
(7) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the analysis of energy structure forecasting. The importance of the development of the optimization of energy structure onto promoting the scientific management of energy supply and demand pattern is summarized. The study of energy structure forecasting is with the Markov model. The development goal of energy structure is optimized by the thought based on revised transfer probability matrix. And the implementation path to deeply adjusting energy structure and pushing the optimized development of energy supply and demand pattern is put forward.
(8) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the comprehensive comparison between coal transportation and power transmission. The meaning of optimizing the coal transportation system to the energy supply and demand pattern is analyzed; the economy of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed with the method of price difference; the energy utilization efficiency is of coal transportation and power transmission is compared by linear programming technique; the environmental impact of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed based on the thought of environmental carrying capacity, and the development strategy of optimization the energy supply and demand pattern is proposed based on the thought of developing coal transportation and power transmission simultaneously.
(9) The issues of the development of energy pattern are summarized combined with the analytical basis of the energy supply and demand pattern of China. The applicable suggestions are proposed. The basic structure of the energy supply and demand pattern analysis software is introduced, as well as its application values.
The research achievements of this paper will provide sound foundations for analyzing the internal structure and development trend of energy supply and demand pattern of China, and provide theoretical reference for optimizing the management level of energy supply and demand pattern, which has both theoretical values and practical meanings.
引文
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