基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划战略环境评价研究
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摘要
城市可持续发展是我国可持续发展战略的重要组成部分,其内涵丰富,内容复杂,城市能源的可持续发展正是其中基础而又关键的一环。众所周知,由于种种历史原因,我国城市化发展水平长期滞后于经济社会与工业化发展水平,但未来中国的城市化必然要向与工业化协调发展的轨道回归,这就意味着在今后相当长的时间内,国内城市发展将处于大规模、高速度的推进阶段。然而,不断加速的城市化进程却面临着人口基数大、生态环境脆弱以及能源资源短缺等诸多因素的制约。
城市发展规划作为推动、指导城市化发展的纲领性文件,其内容涉及城市经济、社会、资源、环境等各个方面。而城市工业发展水平、产业结构特征、生产技术水平、人口发展等因素,不仅关系到国民经济的可持续发展,更关系到城市能源消耗、环境保护等全局性的可持续发展问题。目前,随着国家能源战略的全面转型,节能已经成为我国的基本国策。在新的历史条件下,城市发展规划SEA理应肩负起加强宏观调控、转变城市经济增长方式以及确保可持续的能源战略在城市发展规划中得以贯彻的历史任务。然而,目前我国城市发展规划SEA的实践距离国家的要求还有较大差距。
当前,我国规划环评工作既面临着国内巨大的能源需求压力,又有源自国际社会尤其是西方国家越来越大的温室气体减排压力。这种“内忧外患”的严峻形势促使城市发展规划SEA对内需要扮演好节能减排重要推手的角色,对外则需不断丰富自身的内涵,融入全新的低碳经济理念。然而,国内以往的城市发展规划SEA实践还存在着重视生态环境要素而轻视能源资源要素,重视相对“脱钩”而轻视绝对“脱钩”,重视能源供应侧的保障能力而较少反映城市能源需求侧的节能诉求等问题。通过融入能源“脱钩”理论,在现有SEA框架内设置产业发展与节能专题,可以很好的弥补现有城市发展规划SEA在理论、内涵与内容方面存在的缺陷。
在对能源“脱钩”理论融入城市发展规划SEA的必要性及可行性进行详细论证的基础上,本文明确了基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA研究的理论基础,其中包括：“脱钩”理论、循环经济理论、节能基础理论、能源经济学理论、生态城市理论。城市能源可持续利用是基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA研究的最根本目标,“脱钩”是循环经济思想的具体体现,生态城市是城市实现能源消费减物质化的重要发展模式,能源经济学理论则为研究提供了具体的技术方法支持。
本文详细地阐释了城市发展规划与城市化相互关系,对产业结构、技术进步、能源结构、能源资源配置方式及居民生活方式等规划要素的变化对于能源需求的直接与间接作用机理进行了系统、全面的探讨。
对主要发达工业化国家的经济增长与能源强度、一次能源消费量以及传统化石能源消费量分别进行回归分析,结果表明EKC假说并非普遍存在。从长期来看,实现能源消费与经济增长的绝对“脱钩”是一个艰辛而漫长的过程。然而,韩国的发展经验表明,通过产业结构与工业结构的跨越式演进以及实施有力的节能和可再生能源政策可以在较低的人均GDP水平上实现能源消费的相对“脱钩”,并进而实现绝对“脱钩”。这对于在这一目标下,我国城市未来能源结构和产业结构的调整以及相关产业能源政策的制定具有重要的启示性意义。
针对当前实践中存在的主要不足,基于微观、中观、宏观相结合、“自下而上”的逻辑思路,提出了以约束性节能目标为刚性约束、以能源消费绝对“脱钩”为柔性约束的产业发展与节能专题的评价技术路线,并就指数分解、部门分析、情景分析等技术方法在各环节的具体应用进行了深入探讨,在此基础上构建了全新的能源“脱钩”理论融入城市发展规划SEA的分析框架。
在本文最后,对滨海新区发展战略环境评价进行了实例研究。结果表明,通过优化产业结构,提升工业内技术密集型行业的比重,严格要求高耗能产品清洁生产水平,滨海新区完全可以实现2010年单位GDP能耗下降20%的节能目标。在此基础上,严格控制能源密集型产业的发展规模、大力发展可再生能源,滨海新区一次能源与化石能源消费曲线在远期会出现拐点。其中,化石能源消费量可以在较低的人均GDP水平上实现与经济增长绝对“脱钩”。实证分析表明,本文提出的基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA的技术路线、内容框架与技术方法在实践中是切实可行的。
The sustainable development of cities, with rich and complicate content, is a critical part of China's sustainable development, and one of its basic and important links is energy. As we know, for various historical causes, the development of China's urbanization lags behind the development of economic, society and industrialization for a long time. But China's urbanization certainly will go back to the harmony development with industrialization, which means that Chinese cities will stay in fast massive development for quite a long period in the future. However, the increasingly accelerated urbanization is restricted by such factors as huge population burden, fragile eco-environment and energy shortage.
As the guideline to push and guide the city development, urban development plan covers all aspects including urban economy, society, resource and environment. Besides, urban industrialization level, the industrial structure features, production technology level, population development and the like are of importance to not only the sustainable development of national economy but also, most of all, to the solution of overall problems such as urban energy consumption and environmental protection. Currently, with the overall transformation of national energy strategies, energy conservation has become China's fundamental policy. Under new historical situations, SEA (namely, Strategic Environmental Assessment) of urban development plan should strengthen macro-control, optimize urban industrial structure, and guarantee that the sustainable energy strategy will fulfill its historic role in the urban development plan. However, China's SEA practice still cannot meet the requirement of national development plan.
First, the article defines the theoretical foundation of the SEA study based on energy "decoupling", which comprises the basic theory of "decoupling" theory, circular economy theory, energy conservation, energy economic science, eco-city theory. Sustainable use of urban energy is the ultimate target of the SEA study based on energy "decoupling". "Decoupling" is the presentation of circular economy theory, eco-city is the important development mode to realize energy conservation in the urban and energy economic science provides guideline to the detail technological approaches.
At present, the huge pressure confronting by China's environmental assessment comes from both national energy shortage and from reduction of green house gas emissions from the international society, especially from western countries. Such grave situation at home and abroad pushes the SEA to play well the important role in promoting reduction of emission and energy conservation in China, and to increase its content and fit for the low-carbon economy idea. But China's current SEA still confronts with problems such as emphasizing eco-environmental factors but neglecting energy factors, relative "decoupling" but absolute "decoupling", and emphasizing energy provision but neglecting energy conservation requirement of urban development. Via adapting itself to energy decoupling, SEA can well make up the gap between the theory and the practice in urban development plan.
Urban development plan, which rectifies and guides the urbanization, pushes urban industrialization progress, and determines the nature, scale and development direction of city. Meanwhile, urbanization reacts on the urban development plan and completes and drives the latter. Based on the detail explanation of the relationship between the urban development plan and urbanization, the article makes an overall and thorough discussion on the mechanism of direct and indirect actions of such core factors of urban development plan as industrial structure, technological progress, energy structure, energy allocation and life styles on urban energy demands.
Regression analysis is taken on the relationship between the economy growth of developed industrialized countries and energy intensity, total consumption of primary energy and traditional fossil energy consumption, and the result shows that EKC hypothesis is not always true. In the long term, primary energy and traditional fossil energy both show "roughly upward" growth, which implies a hard and long way to achieve absolute "decoupling" in energy consumption. However, as proved by South Korean development, EKC peaks of energy intensity, total consumption of primary energy and traditional fossil energy consumption can be overcome and realize the "decoupling" of energy consumption, under lower GDP per capita, via the leaping development of industrial structure and the conduction of powerful policies about energy conservation and use of clean energy. It enlightens China about the formulation and implementation of energy development strategies in the future.
Targeting at various weakness in the practice, the article proposes the basic framework of the SEA of urban development plan and accordingly complete and extend the framework, which is to change existing mode of limiting related contents of energy in the balance analysis of energy provision and demands and the analysis of energy provision capacity but to create a special systemic subject for industrial development and energy conservation. The subject will first analyze and comment on the current drives of energy conservation in the urban and the "decoupling" degree of energy conservation, then focus on the analysis of accessibility of the mandatory energy conservation target, based on which the direction of the further development of the energy conservation curve will be predicted and the practicability of "decoupling" between economic growth and energy consumption will be demonstrated, and at last, propose detail advice and measures about plan adjustment. Also, the applications of scenario analysis, index decomposition analysis and department analysis are discussed in this section.
At the end of the article, the SEA of the development strategy of the Tianjin New Coastal District (TNCD) will be taken as a case to be studied. As the result shows, the TNCD can achieve the energy conservation target of reducing 20% of energy every ten-thousand-Yuan GDP in the year of 2010, via optimizing industrial structure, increasing the ratio of technology-intensive industries in the district and strictly govern the clean production of products under key control with high energy consumption. On the basis, the TNCD can further take measures to strictly control the scale of heave chemical industry, to strengthen the development of renewable energy and the like. Therefore, the curve of primary energy and fossil fuel energy will meet break-over points in the future. Wherein, the consumption of fossil energy can achieve "decoupling" with economic development under lower GDP per capita. The analysis of the case shows it's practical to carry out the technological mode, content framework and technological methods proposed in the article and based on the energy "decoupling" theory of SEA.
城市发展规划作为推动、指导城市化发展的纲领性文件,其内容涉及城市经济、社会、资源、环境等各个方面。而城市工业发展水平、产业结构特征、生产技术水平、人口发展等因素,不仅关系到国民经济的可持续发展,更关系到城市能源消耗、环境保护等全局性的可持续发展问题。目前,随着国家能源战略的全面转型,节能已经成为我国的基本国策。在新的历史条件下,城市发展规划SEA理应肩负起加强宏观调控、转变城市经济增长方式以及确保可持续的能源战略在城市发展规划中得以贯彻的历史任务。然而,目前我国城市发展规划SEA的实践距离国家的要求还有较大差距。
当前,我国规划环评工作既面临着国内巨大的能源需求压力,又有源自国际社会尤其是西方国家越来越大的温室气体减排压力。这种“内忧外患”的严峻形势促使城市发展规划SEA对内需要扮演好节能减排重要推手的角色,对外则需不断丰富自身的内涵,融入全新的低碳经济理念。然而,国内以往的城市发展规划SEA实践还存在着重视生态环境要素而轻视能源资源要素,重视相对“脱钩”而轻视绝对“脱钩”,重视能源供应侧的保障能力而较少反映城市能源需求侧的节能诉求等问题。通过融入能源“脱钩”理论,在现有SEA框架内设置产业发展与节能专题,可以很好的弥补现有城市发展规划SEA在理论、内涵与内容方面存在的缺陷。
在对能源“脱钩”理论融入城市发展规划SEA的必要性及可行性进行详细论证的基础上,本文明确了基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA研究的理论基础,其中包括：“脱钩”理论、循环经济理论、节能基础理论、能源经济学理论、生态城市理论。城市能源可持续利用是基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA研究的最根本目标,“脱钩”是循环经济思想的具体体现,生态城市是城市实现能源消费减物质化的重要发展模式,能源经济学理论则为研究提供了具体的技术方法支持。
本文详细地阐释了城市发展规划与城市化相互关系,对产业结构、技术进步、能源结构、能源资源配置方式及居民生活方式等规划要素的变化对于能源需求的直接与间接作用机理进行了系统、全面的探讨。
对主要发达工业化国家的经济增长与能源强度、一次能源消费量以及传统化石能源消费量分别进行回归分析,结果表明EKC假说并非普遍存在。从长期来看,实现能源消费与经济增长的绝对“脱钩”是一个艰辛而漫长的过程。然而,韩国的发展经验表明,通过产业结构与工业结构的跨越式演进以及实施有力的节能和可再生能源政策可以在较低的人均GDP水平上实现能源消费的相对“脱钩”,并进而实现绝对“脱钩”。这对于在这一目标下,我国城市未来能源结构和产业结构的调整以及相关产业能源政策的制定具有重要的启示性意义。
针对当前实践中存在的主要不足,基于微观、中观、宏观相结合、“自下而上”的逻辑思路,提出了以约束性节能目标为刚性约束、以能源消费绝对“脱钩”为柔性约束的产业发展与节能专题的评价技术路线,并就指数分解、部门分析、情景分析等技术方法在各环节的具体应用进行了深入探讨,在此基础上构建了全新的能源“脱钩”理论融入城市发展规划SEA的分析框架。
在本文最后,对滨海新区发展战略环境评价进行了实例研究。结果表明,通过优化产业结构,提升工业内技术密集型行业的比重,严格要求高耗能产品清洁生产水平,滨海新区完全可以实现2010年单位GDP能耗下降20%的节能目标。在此基础上,严格控制能源密集型产业的发展规模、大力发展可再生能源,滨海新区一次能源与化石能源消费曲线在远期会出现拐点。其中,化石能源消费量可以在较低的人均GDP水平上实现与经济增长绝对“脱钩”。实证分析表明,本文提出的基于能源“脱钩”理论的城市发展规划SEA的技术路线、内容框架与技术方法在实践中是切实可行的。
The sustainable development of cities, with rich and complicate content, is a critical part of China's sustainable development, and one of its basic and important links is energy. As we know, for various historical causes, the development of China's urbanization lags behind the development of economic, society and industrialization for a long time. But China's urbanization certainly will go back to the harmony development with industrialization, which means that Chinese cities will stay in fast massive development for quite a long period in the future. However, the increasingly accelerated urbanization is restricted by such factors as huge population burden, fragile eco-environment and energy shortage.
As the guideline to push and guide the city development, urban development plan covers all aspects including urban economy, society, resource and environment. Besides, urban industrialization level, the industrial structure features, production technology level, population development and the like are of importance to not only the sustainable development of national economy but also, most of all, to the solution of overall problems such as urban energy consumption and environmental protection. Currently, with the overall transformation of national energy strategies, energy conservation has become China's fundamental policy. Under new historical situations, SEA (namely, Strategic Environmental Assessment) of urban development plan should strengthen macro-control, optimize urban industrial structure, and guarantee that the sustainable energy strategy will fulfill its historic role in the urban development plan. However, China's SEA practice still cannot meet the requirement of national development plan.
First, the article defines the theoretical foundation of the SEA study based on energy "decoupling", which comprises the basic theory of "decoupling" theory, circular economy theory, energy conservation, energy economic science, eco-city theory. Sustainable use of urban energy is the ultimate target of the SEA study based on energy "decoupling". "Decoupling" is the presentation of circular economy theory, eco-city is the important development mode to realize energy conservation in the urban and energy economic science provides guideline to the detail technological approaches.
At present, the huge pressure confronting by China's environmental assessment comes from both national energy shortage and from reduction of green house gas emissions from the international society, especially from western countries. Such grave situation at home and abroad pushes the SEA to play well the important role in promoting reduction of emission and energy conservation in China, and to increase its content and fit for the low-carbon economy idea. But China's current SEA still confronts with problems such as emphasizing eco-environmental factors but neglecting energy factors, relative "decoupling" but absolute "decoupling", and emphasizing energy provision but neglecting energy conservation requirement of urban development. Via adapting itself to energy decoupling, SEA can well make up the gap between the theory and the practice in urban development plan.
Urban development plan, which rectifies and guides the urbanization, pushes urban industrialization progress, and determines the nature, scale and development direction of city. Meanwhile, urbanization reacts on the urban development plan and completes and drives the latter. Based on the detail explanation of the relationship between the urban development plan and urbanization, the article makes an overall and thorough discussion on the mechanism of direct and indirect actions of such core factors of urban development plan as industrial structure, technological progress, energy structure, energy allocation and life styles on urban energy demands.
Regression analysis is taken on the relationship between the economy growth of developed industrialized countries and energy intensity, total consumption of primary energy and traditional fossil energy consumption, and the result shows that EKC hypothesis is not always true. In the long term, primary energy and traditional fossil energy both show "roughly upward" growth, which implies a hard and long way to achieve absolute "decoupling" in energy consumption. However, as proved by South Korean development, EKC peaks of energy intensity, total consumption of primary energy and traditional fossil energy consumption can be overcome and realize the "decoupling" of energy consumption, under lower GDP per capita, via the leaping development of industrial structure and the conduction of powerful policies about energy conservation and use of clean energy. It enlightens China about the formulation and implementation of energy development strategies in the future.
Targeting at various weakness in the practice, the article proposes the basic framework of the SEA of urban development plan and accordingly complete and extend the framework, which is to change existing mode of limiting related contents of energy in the balance analysis of energy provision and demands and the analysis of energy provision capacity but to create a special systemic subject for industrial development and energy conservation. The subject will first analyze and comment on the current drives of energy conservation in the urban and the "decoupling" degree of energy conservation, then focus on the analysis of accessibility of the mandatory energy conservation target, based on which the direction of the further development of the energy conservation curve will be predicted and the practicability of "decoupling" between economic growth and energy consumption will be demonstrated, and at last, propose detail advice and measures about plan adjustment. Also, the applications of scenario analysis, index decomposition analysis and department analysis are discussed in this section.
At the end of the article, the SEA of the development strategy of the Tianjin New Coastal District (TNCD) will be taken as a case to be studied. As the result shows, the TNCD can achieve the energy conservation target of reducing 20% of energy every ten-thousand-Yuan GDP in the year of 2010, via optimizing industrial structure, increasing the ratio of technology-intensive industries in the district and strictly govern the clean production of products under key control with high energy consumption. On the basis, the TNCD can further take measures to strictly control the scale of heave chemical industry, to strengthen the development of renewable energy and the like. Therefore, the curve of primary energy and fossil fuel energy will meet break-over points in the future. Wherein, the consumption of fossil energy can achieve "decoupling" with economic development under lower GDP per capita. The analysis of the case shows it's practical to carry out the technological mode, content framework and technological methods proposed in the article and based on the energy "decoupling" theory of SEA.
引文
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