劳动力成本变化与制造业企业行为研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国居民储蓄率持续增加,居民消费需求持续不足。有鉴于此,政府主要依靠固定资产投资、私人投资以及产品出口来拉动经济增长。但在内部需求不足的情况下,这种依靠投资需求或产品外部需求的发展模式是不可持续的。首先,生产规模的扩大最终还是会落脚到产品供给的增加上,因此强健的产品需求尤其是消费品的需求才是经济合理、健康、持续发展的保证。投资需求作为总需求的构成部分仅能缓解内需的一时不足。其次,依靠产品外部需求,以外需替代内需的外向型经济发展模式将牺牲本国经济的独立性,使得本国经济应对外部干扰的能力下降。同时,近年来我国劳动力成本持续上涨,我国企业出口所依托的廉价劳动力比较优势可能正在消退,制造业企业的出口将面临越来越残酷的竞争,以外需替代内需的发展模式可能会变得越来越困难。再次,经济发展的根本目的还是在提高居民福利水平上,若经济增长的同时居民当前消费水平却没有增加,那么这种经济增长可能是本末倒置的。
要让经济持续、健康地增长,扩大产品国内需求是必不可少的。在已有的研究中我们就我国内需不足的原因,如何扩大内需进行了探讨。我们首先检验了1953～2005年我国居民储蓄率内生断点的存在性,得出1953～1978年我国居民储蓄行为与1978～2005年居民储蓄行为存在显著差异。那么,导致这种改变的原因是什么?为回答这个问题,我们从与居民福利密切相关的一系列改革中,选取了两个改革进行实证研究。一是借助2003年发生在中国农村的新型农村合作医疗改革来实证检验未来不确定与居民当前消费水平的关系。研究发现,新农合的实施可以带动3.06倍其财政投入的食物消费,促进居民增加消费。二是借助1997年实施的高等教育收费制度改革来分析教育改革对居民消费的影响。研究得出,高等教育收费制度改革对1997年以后有孩子进行高等教育的家庭来讲正如一次负向收入冲击,此冲击将显著降低居民在食物上的消费。从这些结论可以看出,改革带来的不确定性的确能显著降低居民的当前消费,因此政府想要扩大产品的国内需求,建立、健全完善的社会保障制度以降低未来不确定性是可以达到该目的。
在本文,我们从另一个角度考察了扩大内需的必要性,即分析产品外部需求是否可持续的问题。具体的,我们借助最低工资标准在地区上的差异以及时间上的变化趋势来识别劳动力成本变化对我国制造业企业出口及其他方面的影响。根据国内外现有文献的处理方法,这些差异往往被看作是外生的。本文使用的数据是我国1998-2007年规模以上制造业企业报表数据,此数据适本文的研究。在最低工资标准数据的收集上,我们主要以手工收集的方式进行。通过查询各地、市出台的有关最低工资的政策法规,本文最终收集到1240个数据,占1998～2007年全国300多个地、市最低工资标准数据的37.13%。在研究内容上,本文着重从以下4个方面进行实证研究：
(一)本文首先考察最低工资与企业平均工资的关系。这是本文一系列研究的起点,也是后续研究的依据。本文研究显示：第一,最低工资作为影响员工工资水平最直接的政策措施,在1998-2007年间促进我国制造业企业人均工资整体上升。在控制地区效应、时间效应以及企业特征等影响因素后,最低工资每增加1%,制造业企业人均工资将整体上涨0.04%～0.05%。第二,对不同行业、不同人均资本的企业,最低工资的上涨对平均工资的影响也不一致。诸如纺织业、纺织服装、鞋、帽业等农产品加工,其企业受最低工资的影响更大。人均资本较低的企业(行业)可能属于传统的劳动密集型企业(行业),这些企业技术含量较低,工资水平普遍不高,因而受最低工资的影响也更大。
从政策制定者的角度来看,这些结论意味着政府可以通过制定最低工资制度来保护劳动者中的弱势群体,进而适度改变收入分配格局,但政府也不能过分依赖最低工资制度之调整员工收入差距的功能。
(二)其次,我们借助最低工资上涨所带来的劳动成本增加分析了最低工资对企业出口可能性及企业出口额的影响。本文相关结论表明,最低工资的上涨不但显著降低企业出口的可能性,而且对出口企业的出口额也有显著的负向影响。最低工资每上涨1%,企业出口的可能性将下降0.013%,出口企业的出口额显著下降0.151%。在对不同企业影响的异质性方面,上期平均工资介于上期最低工资与本期最低工资之间企业的出口可能性及出口额将下降得更多,并且随着企业平均工资、人均资本的提高,最低工资对企业出口的影响越来越弱。在时间的纬度上,最低工资对企业的负向影响随着时间的推移越来越大。
这些结论的政策意义在于,政府目前实施的依赖廉价劳动力的比较优势战略将变得越来越困难,政府应适时促进产业结构升级,发展能吸收大量劳动力的服务业。更为重要的是扩大产品国内需求才是经济长期、持续增长的根本保证。
(三)再次,我们还顺带分析了最低工资对企业在职培训的影响。职业教育或在职培训是每个人一生中非常重要的教育过程,它对个人工作经验的积累、终生财富的增加以及生产技能的提高都具有举足轻重意义。本文回归结论得出,不论从企业提供在职培训的可能性还是企业对在职培训的资金投入,最低工资的上涨都有显著的负向影响。最低工资每增加1%,企业提供在职培训的可能性显著下降0.089%,企业计提的“职工教育经费”显著减少0.25%。政府若想大力推行企业在职培训,那么降低培训对企业的成本将变得尤为重要。
(四)最后,本文分析了最低工资与企业雇佣人数的关系。这也是劳动经济学中一个非常重要的研究方向。本文的结论表明,正如大多数文献所揭示的那样,企业雇佣人数受最低工资上涨的显著负向影响。最低工资每增加1%,制造业企业雇佣人数整体下降0.06%左右。同时,对上期人均工资介于上期最低工资与本期最低工资之间的企业,其雇佣人数下降得略多,这与前面的结论存在内在一致性。此外,随着企业人均资本的增加,最低工资对企业雇佣人数的影响越来越小,而那些依赖大量劳动力进行生产的企业其雇佣人数受最低工资的影响较大。
除以4个研究内容之外,论文还对各部分的结论采用“准自然实验”的方法进行稳健性检验。“准自然实验”是借助制度的一些冲击,识别变量之间因果关系的计量方法。具体地,我们借助福建省2006-2007年最低工资上涨这一事实,分别以广东省、福建省企业为对照组和实验组样本,对比各地企业在2006～2007年各经济变量发展趋势上的差异,即双重差分分析(DID)。同时,为了提高实验组样本与控制组样本的可比性,我们还将实验组与控制组的地理范围缩小,以地理位置紧邻的福建省的漳州、龙岩为实验组,广东省的梅洲、潮州为控制组,对比各自企业在2006-2007人均工资、雇佣人数、出口以及在职培训上的变化趋势。稳健性检验进一步证实了论文的结论。
文章在创新方面,窃以为本文有以下几方面的改进：
首先,本文的选题比较新颖,相关题目的研究在国内比较少见,本文得到的相关结论对国内目前现有的研究进行了补充和深化。同时,这些结论不仅具有很强的现实意义,而且给政府提供了一些政策层面上的建议。
其次,数据的代表性强、样本量大。本文首次利用中国1998-2007年规模以上制造业企业的报告数据,实证分析最低工资对企业平均工资、就业、出口、在职培训的影响,结论更具普遍意义。
再次,在最低工资数据方面,论文使用的数据是目前所能获得的最好的。该数据层面更细,数值变化(variation)更大,能很好地反映不同地区最低工资制度的变化差异,为研究提供可靠的识别基础。
第四,本文内生性问题的解决更合理,结论更稳健。我们借助最低工资随时间、随地区的变化差异来识别最低工资对企业行为的影响,而相对微观数据该差异本身就可以视为外生的。
第五,“准自然实验”对揭示变量之间的因果关系非常有帮助,我们借此对结论进行了一系列稳健性检验,本文的回归结果比较可信。
Since1978Chinese household saving rate continues to increase. And in order to promote economic growth, the government mainly depends on the comparative advantage of cheap labor in China to promote export. Indeed in the21st century, the stimulating effect of exports on economic growth is very significant. However, we should be aware that this situation should be changed because of the changing of relatively labor cost between countries. Actually, since the1950s there are three major transfers of manufacturing industry due to changing of comparative advantage of labor costs. In recent years as we know, Chinese labor cost is increasing continously. For example, the minimum wage of each city is frequently raised and it is regarded as the most direct approach to impact labor cost. So, it is very interesting to find that what are the impact of these changes in labor costs on firm behavior, such as firm's average wage, employment, export and on-job-training? These answers are meaningful especially for policy-makers.
In this dersation we utilize the different trends of minimum wage in different regions to identify the effect of labor costs on Chinese manufacturing enterprises' behavior. According to the existing literatures, these differences are often regarded as exogenous shocks. And the data we used is the large-scale manufacturing enterprises report data in1998～2007. This data has huge samples, and more importantly, the collection object of such data is large-scale manufacturing enterprises, which is very suitable for the purpose of our study. In order to collect every regional minimum wage data, we conducted mainly by hand. And we can finally collect1240data by querying the relevant policies and regulations, which account37.13%of full data (more than300cities and10years). In details, we conduct our question in the following4stages:
Firstly, we analyzed the effect of minimum wage on firm's average wage. This is the starting point for a series of following studies. Results show that from1998to2007, the minimum wage will increase firm's overall average wage. It is for every1%increase in minimum wage, manufacturing enterprises'average wages will be rosen by0.04%～0.05%. For firms in different industries or with different asert per capita, the impact of the minimum wage is inconsistent. Minimum wage will increase firms'average wage in agricultural industry and lower asert per capita much more. For improving income distribution, the minimum wage has no effect, although it will reduce the Gini coefficient, but the result was not significant in10%level. From policy makers, these findings mean that the government can utilize the minimum wage system to increase average wage of low skilled works, but gonvernment may not over-rely on it to adjust the income distribution.
Secondly, the relationship of minimum wage and employment is a very important topic in labor economics. Beside this in our country, the government faces relatively large pressure on employment, so to estimate the mignitude effect of minimum wages on employment will help policy makers to grasp the true effects of minimum wages. To our knowlage, domestic related studies are rare.Results show that minimum wage has significant negitive effect on empolyment. For every1%increase in the minimum wage, there is an overall about0.06%decline in the number of manufacturing enterprises employ. Meanwhile, with the increase in asert per capita, the impact of minimum wage is smaller. Policy makers should weigh the positive effect of minimum wage in income distribution and the negitve effect on employment when set a minimum wage standard.
Thirdly, utilizing this data we also analyzed the effect of minimum wage on export. Relevant conclusions show that the minimum wage will not only significantly reduce the possibility of exports, but also reduce the quantity of exports for export enterprises. Using Kyriazidou (1997)'s method of sample selection in panel data, we find that the previous conclusion is still valid after adjusting sample selection bias. Aggain, there is still some heterogeneity in the impact of the minimum wage. For firm with average wage between the previous minimum wage level and the current minimum wage level, the impact of minimum wage will be much bigger. With the increasing of asert per capita, the effect of minimum wage will be increasingly weak. There conclutions mean that it should be increasingly difficult for Government's export-oriented development strategy.
Forthly, as we all know, the vocational education or the on-job-training is a very important educational process for every person, which has an important role on person's work experience, life time wealth or productivity. From the perspective of firm's on-job-training to analyze minimum wage will no doubtly help the government to understand the impact of training cost on the job training and help the Government in setting related follow-up policies. Regression results showed that, both the possibility of firm to provide on-job-training or the volumn of on-job-training investment, the minimum wage has a significant negative effect. In order to push firm provide on-job-training to their works, reducing the cost of on-job-training will become much more important.
In addition, this paper also used "quasi-natural experiment" approach to conduct the robustness checks. Specifically, we utilized the increasrment of minimum wage in Fujian Province from2006to2007as a natural shock. And we use Guangdong Province, Fujian Province as control group and experimental group respectively. The mothed in this part is DID regression. In order to improve the comparability between the experimental group and control group, we use Zhangzhou city, Longyan city in Fujian province as treatment groups, while the control groups are Meizhou city, Chaozhou city in Guangdong Province. Robustness checkings further confirm the most of the conclusions.
I believe this paper has several slight improvements. In details:
Firstly, the topics of this paper are relatively new and domestic related researches in these topics are rare. These studies are very meaningful in theoretical background or for policy making.
Secondly, we use a huge data in this paper. I belive the conclusions in this paper are much more general. More importantly, the collection object of such data corresponding to China's manufacturing enterprises, which is very suit for our topic.
Thirdly, the paper collects the minimum wage data by hand and it is in its best quality so far. Our minimum wage data is much more comprehensive than existing litertures and has greater variation to provide a reliable basis for identification.
Fourthly, the solution to endogenous problem in this paper is much more reasonable. We utilized the different trends of minimum wage in different regions to identify the impact of minimum wage on firm's behavior, which can itself be regarded as exogeneity. In addition, we added the city-level average wage, employment and some other Marco variables to deal with government's adjutment of minimum wage based on regional average wage and employment.
Fininally, we conducted a series of robustnesscheckings, and the findings in this paper may be more credible. This "quasi-natural experiment" approach is very helpfu to reveal the relationship between minimum wage and firm's behaviors.
要让经济持续、健康地增长,扩大产品国内需求是必不可少的。在已有的研究中我们就我国内需不足的原因,如何扩大内需进行了探讨。我们首先检验了1953～2005年我国居民储蓄率内生断点的存在性,得出1953～1978年我国居民储蓄行为与1978～2005年居民储蓄行为存在显著差异。那么,导致这种改变的原因是什么?为回答这个问题,我们从与居民福利密切相关的一系列改革中,选取了两个改革进行实证研究。一是借助2003年发生在中国农村的新型农村合作医疗改革来实证检验未来不确定与居民当前消费水平的关系。研究发现,新农合的实施可以带动3.06倍其财政投入的食物消费,促进居民增加消费。二是借助1997年实施的高等教育收费制度改革来分析教育改革对居民消费的影响。研究得出,高等教育收费制度改革对1997年以后有孩子进行高等教育的家庭来讲正如一次负向收入冲击,此冲击将显著降低居民在食物上的消费。从这些结论可以看出,改革带来的不确定性的确能显著降低居民的当前消费,因此政府想要扩大产品的国内需求,建立、健全完善的社会保障制度以降低未来不确定性是可以达到该目的。
在本文,我们从另一个角度考察了扩大内需的必要性,即分析产品外部需求是否可持续的问题。具体的,我们借助最低工资标准在地区上的差异以及时间上的变化趋势来识别劳动力成本变化对我国制造业企业出口及其他方面的影响。根据国内外现有文献的处理方法,这些差异往往被看作是外生的。本文使用的数据是我国1998-2007年规模以上制造业企业报表数据,此数据适本文的研究。在最低工资标准数据的收集上,我们主要以手工收集的方式进行。通过查询各地、市出台的有关最低工资的政策法规,本文最终收集到1240个数据,占1998～2007年全国300多个地、市最低工资标准数据的37.13%。在研究内容上,本文着重从以下4个方面进行实证研究：
(一)本文首先考察最低工资与企业平均工资的关系。这是本文一系列研究的起点,也是后续研究的依据。本文研究显示：第一,最低工资作为影响员工工资水平最直接的政策措施,在1998-2007年间促进我国制造业企业人均工资整体上升。在控制地区效应、时间效应以及企业特征等影响因素后,最低工资每增加1%,制造业企业人均工资将整体上涨0.04%～0.05%。第二,对不同行业、不同人均资本的企业,最低工资的上涨对平均工资的影响也不一致。诸如纺织业、纺织服装、鞋、帽业等农产品加工,其企业受最低工资的影响更大。人均资本较低的企业(行业)可能属于传统的劳动密集型企业(行业),这些企业技术含量较低,工资水平普遍不高,因而受最低工资的影响也更大。
从政策制定者的角度来看,这些结论意味着政府可以通过制定最低工资制度来保护劳动者中的弱势群体,进而适度改变收入分配格局,但政府也不能过分依赖最低工资制度之调整员工收入差距的功能。
(二)其次,我们借助最低工资上涨所带来的劳动成本增加分析了最低工资对企业出口可能性及企业出口额的影响。本文相关结论表明,最低工资的上涨不但显著降低企业出口的可能性,而且对出口企业的出口额也有显著的负向影响。最低工资每上涨1%,企业出口的可能性将下降0.013%,出口企业的出口额显著下降0.151%。在对不同企业影响的异质性方面,上期平均工资介于上期最低工资与本期最低工资之间企业的出口可能性及出口额将下降得更多,并且随着企业平均工资、人均资本的提高,最低工资对企业出口的影响越来越弱。在时间的纬度上,最低工资对企业的负向影响随着时间的推移越来越大。
这些结论的政策意义在于,政府目前实施的依赖廉价劳动力的比较优势战略将变得越来越困难,政府应适时促进产业结构升级,发展能吸收大量劳动力的服务业。更为重要的是扩大产品国内需求才是经济长期、持续增长的根本保证。
(三)再次,我们还顺带分析了最低工资对企业在职培训的影响。职业教育或在职培训是每个人一生中非常重要的教育过程,它对个人工作经验的积累、终生财富的增加以及生产技能的提高都具有举足轻重意义。本文回归结论得出,不论从企业提供在职培训的可能性还是企业对在职培训的资金投入,最低工资的上涨都有显著的负向影响。最低工资每增加1%,企业提供在职培训的可能性显著下降0.089%,企业计提的“职工教育经费”显著减少0.25%。政府若想大力推行企业在职培训,那么降低培训对企业的成本将变得尤为重要。
(四)最后,本文分析了最低工资与企业雇佣人数的关系。这也是劳动经济学中一个非常重要的研究方向。本文的结论表明,正如大多数文献所揭示的那样,企业雇佣人数受最低工资上涨的显著负向影响。最低工资每增加1%,制造业企业雇佣人数整体下降0.06%左右。同时,对上期人均工资介于上期最低工资与本期最低工资之间的企业,其雇佣人数下降得略多,这与前面的结论存在内在一致性。此外,随着企业人均资本的增加,最低工资对企业雇佣人数的影响越来越小,而那些依赖大量劳动力进行生产的企业其雇佣人数受最低工资的影响较大。
除以4个研究内容之外,论文还对各部分的结论采用“准自然实验”的方法进行稳健性检验。“准自然实验”是借助制度的一些冲击,识别变量之间因果关系的计量方法。具体地,我们借助福建省2006-2007年最低工资上涨这一事实,分别以广东省、福建省企业为对照组和实验组样本,对比各地企业在2006～2007年各经济变量发展趋势上的差异,即双重差分分析(DID)。同时,为了提高实验组样本与控制组样本的可比性,我们还将实验组与控制组的地理范围缩小,以地理位置紧邻的福建省的漳州、龙岩为实验组,广东省的梅洲、潮州为控制组,对比各自企业在2006-2007人均工资、雇佣人数、出口以及在职培训上的变化趋势。稳健性检验进一步证实了论文的结论。
文章在创新方面,窃以为本文有以下几方面的改进：
首先,本文的选题比较新颖,相关题目的研究在国内比较少见,本文得到的相关结论对国内目前现有的研究进行了补充和深化。同时,这些结论不仅具有很强的现实意义,而且给政府提供了一些政策层面上的建议。
其次,数据的代表性强、样本量大。本文首次利用中国1998-2007年规模以上制造业企业的报告数据,实证分析最低工资对企业平均工资、就业、出口、在职培训的影响,结论更具普遍意义。
再次,在最低工资数据方面,论文使用的数据是目前所能获得的最好的。该数据层面更细,数值变化(variation)更大,能很好地反映不同地区最低工资制度的变化差异,为研究提供可靠的识别基础。
第四,本文内生性问题的解决更合理,结论更稳健。我们借助最低工资随时间、随地区的变化差异来识别最低工资对企业行为的影响,而相对微观数据该差异本身就可以视为外生的。
第五,“准自然实验”对揭示变量之间的因果关系非常有帮助,我们借此对结论进行了一系列稳健性检验,本文的回归结果比较可信。
Since1978Chinese household saving rate continues to increase. And in order to promote economic growth, the government mainly depends on the comparative advantage of cheap labor in China to promote export. Indeed in the21st century, the stimulating effect of exports on economic growth is very significant. However, we should be aware that this situation should be changed because of the changing of relatively labor cost between countries. Actually, since the1950s there are three major transfers of manufacturing industry due to changing of comparative advantage of labor costs. In recent years as we know, Chinese labor cost is increasing continously. For example, the minimum wage of each city is frequently raised and it is regarded as the most direct approach to impact labor cost. So, it is very interesting to find that what are the impact of these changes in labor costs on firm behavior, such as firm's average wage, employment, export and on-job-training? These answers are meaningful especially for policy-makers.
In this dersation we utilize the different trends of minimum wage in different regions to identify the effect of labor costs on Chinese manufacturing enterprises' behavior. According to the existing literatures, these differences are often regarded as exogenous shocks. And the data we used is the large-scale manufacturing enterprises report data in1998～2007. This data has huge samples, and more importantly, the collection object of such data is large-scale manufacturing enterprises, which is very suitable for the purpose of our study. In order to collect every regional minimum wage data, we conducted mainly by hand. And we can finally collect1240data by querying the relevant policies and regulations, which account37.13%of full data (more than300cities and10years). In details, we conduct our question in the following4stages:
Firstly, we analyzed the effect of minimum wage on firm's average wage. This is the starting point for a series of following studies. Results show that from1998to2007, the minimum wage will increase firm's overall average wage. It is for every1%increase in minimum wage, manufacturing enterprises'average wages will be rosen by0.04%～0.05%. For firms in different industries or with different asert per capita, the impact of the minimum wage is inconsistent. Minimum wage will increase firms'average wage in agricultural industry and lower asert per capita much more. For improving income distribution, the minimum wage has no effect, although it will reduce the Gini coefficient, but the result was not significant in10%level. From policy makers, these findings mean that the government can utilize the minimum wage system to increase average wage of low skilled works, but gonvernment may not over-rely on it to adjust the income distribution.
Secondly, the relationship of minimum wage and employment is a very important topic in labor economics. Beside this in our country, the government faces relatively large pressure on employment, so to estimate the mignitude effect of minimum wages on employment will help policy makers to grasp the true effects of minimum wages. To our knowlage, domestic related studies are rare.Results show that minimum wage has significant negitive effect on empolyment. For every1%increase in the minimum wage, there is an overall about0.06%decline in the number of manufacturing enterprises employ. Meanwhile, with the increase in asert per capita, the impact of minimum wage is smaller. Policy makers should weigh the positive effect of minimum wage in income distribution and the negitve effect on employment when set a minimum wage standard.
Thirdly, utilizing this data we also analyzed the effect of minimum wage on export. Relevant conclusions show that the minimum wage will not only significantly reduce the possibility of exports, but also reduce the quantity of exports for export enterprises. Using Kyriazidou (1997)'s method of sample selection in panel data, we find that the previous conclusion is still valid after adjusting sample selection bias. Aggain, there is still some heterogeneity in the impact of the minimum wage. For firm with average wage between the previous minimum wage level and the current minimum wage level, the impact of minimum wage will be much bigger. With the increasing of asert per capita, the effect of minimum wage will be increasingly weak. There conclutions mean that it should be increasingly difficult for Government's export-oriented development strategy.
Forthly, as we all know, the vocational education or the on-job-training is a very important educational process for every person, which has an important role on person's work experience, life time wealth or productivity. From the perspective of firm's on-job-training to analyze minimum wage will no doubtly help the government to understand the impact of training cost on the job training and help the Government in setting related follow-up policies. Regression results showed that, both the possibility of firm to provide on-job-training or the volumn of on-job-training investment, the minimum wage has a significant negative effect. In order to push firm provide on-job-training to their works, reducing the cost of on-job-training will become much more important.
In addition, this paper also used "quasi-natural experiment" approach to conduct the robustness checks. Specifically, we utilized the increasrment of minimum wage in Fujian Province from2006to2007as a natural shock. And we use Guangdong Province, Fujian Province as control group and experimental group respectively. The mothed in this part is DID regression. In order to improve the comparability between the experimental group and control group, we use Zhangzhou city, Longyan city in Fujian province as treatment groups, while the control groups are Meizhou city, Chaozhou city in Guangdong Province. Robustness checkings further confirm the most of the conclusions.
I believe this paper has several slight improvements. In details:
Firstly, the topics of this paper are relatively new and domestic related researches in these topics are rare. These studies are very meaningful in theoretical background or for policy making.
Secondly, we use a huge data in this paper. I belive the conclusions in this paper are much more general. More importantly, the collection object of such data corresponding to China's manufacturing enterprises, which is very suit for our topic.
Thirdly, the paper collects the minimum wage data by hand and it is in its best quality so far. Our minimum wage data is much more comprehensive than existing litertures and has greater variation to provide a reliable basis for identification.
Fourthly, the solution to endogenous problem in this paper is much more reasonable. We utilized the different trends of minimum wage in different regions to identify the impact of minimum wage on firm's behavior, which can itself be regarded as exogeneity. In addition, we added the city-level average wage, employment and some other Marco variables to deal with government's adjutment of minimum wage based on regional average wage and employment.
Fininally, we conducted a series of robustnesscheckings, and the findings in this paper may be more credible. This "quasi-natural experiment" approach is very helpfu to reveal the relationship between minimum wage and firm's behaviors.
引文
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[2]蔡昉：《人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点》,《经济研究》,2010年04期。
[3]林毅夫：《中国的奇迹：发展战略与经济改革》,上海人民出版社,《当代经济学系列丛书》,1999。
[4]罗小兰：《我国最低工资标准农民工就业效应分析—对全国、地区及行业的实证研究》,《财经研究》,2007第11期。
[5]平新乔：《关注民企劳资关系》,《民营视界》,2005年第6期。
[6]张五常：《最低工资种祸根》,《南方周末》,2000。
[7]丁守海：《最低工资工资管制的就业效应分析—兼论《劳动合同法》的交互影响》,《中国社会科学》,2010年第1期。
[8]李培祥：《提高最低工资让优势企业驱逐劣势企业》,载于《提高最低工资标准利弊谈》,《南方日报》,2006年5月17日
[9]黄薇、任若恩：《中国价格竞争力变动趋势分析：基于单位劳动成本的实际有效汇率测算研究》,《世界经济》,2008年第6期。
[10]杨莉、张玉倩：《中国出口商品中劳动力比较优势的现状与未来变化》,《北方经济》,2007年第6期。
[11]陈超、姚利民：《制造业单位劳动成本的国际比较及其对出口与福利的影响》,《世界经济研究》,2007年第6期。
[12]吕政：《论中国工业的比较优势》,《中国工业经济》,2003年第4期。
[13]中国人民银行研究局课题组：《中国国民储蓄和居民储蓄的影响因素》,《经济研究》,1999(5)。
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