中国植物油产品的进口贸易研究
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摘要
随着人民生活水平的提高,中国植物油产品消费增长明显加快。中国已逐渐成为世界植物油产品的进口大国,对国际市场的依赖程度进一步加大。由于植物油产品的大量进口,中国油料(主要是大豆和油菜籽)生产受到一定程度的影响,种植效益低下影响了农民种植的积极性。同时,随着植物油市场的开放,外资企业纷纷进入中国植物油加工业,逐渐形成对中国植物油加工业的垄断局面。另外,植物油产品的国内市场与国际市场接轨加快,国内价格不仅受国内供求的影响,还与国际市场价格波动表现出趋同性。受国际市场价格上涨的影响,国内植物油价格上涨成为国内CPI攀升的重要因素,对居民生活和宏观经济产生了不利影响。
植物油产品进口依赖性不断提高对我国植物油产业和国民经济产生的不利影响,引起了国家领导和相关部门的重视,并出台了一系列政策措施,以恢复国内油料生产,控制植物油价格波动。尽管如此,随着我国对植物油市场开放的入世承诺兑现,以及多哈回合谈判的深入,中国植物油市场的贸易开放程度进一步扩大,植物油产业将面临未来更猛烈的进口冲击,对国际市场的依赖程度有可能更高。同时国际上生物柴油产业的快速发展,使我国植物油产品的进口保障程度降低。植物油产品的进口形势依然严峻,国内油料生产和植物油加工业发展的威胁依然存在。所以,本研究试图以植物油产品的进口贸易为突破口,分析进口影响因素、进口中存在的问题以及进口对我国的影响,找到应对进口冲击的对策,以壮大国内植物油产业,提高植物油自给率和本国社会福利。
本研究基于植物油产品进口,选择了大豆、油菜籽、棕榈油、豆油和菜籽油这五种进口量和国内消费量较大的产品进行分析。全部研究主要包括七个部分的内容,分析了中国在植物油产品进口中存在的规律和问题,进口对国内植物油产业和社会福利的影响,提出了相关政策建议。每个部分的具体内容和相关结论如下:
第一章是研究导论,介绍了本研究的背景和意义,研究目标和研究内容,研究思路、研究方法与数据来源,国内外相关研究动态,本研究的创新和不足之处,以及研究展望。
第二章是对中国植物油产品进口贸易概况的介绍。主要包括1987—2008年期间植物油产品进出口总量变化情况,植物油产品进口的品种构成,主要植物油产品的进出口数量变化情况及其进口来源地构成,中国植物油产品进口贸易在世界市场上的地位。本章分析发现中国是植物油产品的净进口国,进口来源地非常集中,中国植物油产品的生产、消费和进口在世界市场上都占有重要的地位,中国已成为大豆、棕榈油和豆油的第一大进口国。
第三章对中国植物油产品进口的影响因素进行了分析。首先对主要影响因素进行了定性分析,然后将各因素纳入模型进行计量分析。结果显示每种植物油产品的进口影响因素都各不相同,大豆进口量对收入和价格变量(包括汇率)的变化都很敏感;油菜籽的进口主要是弥补国内产量的不足,以满足菜籽油的生产;棕榈油进口受国内需求和进口价格的影响,在一定程度上是对大豆进口的替代;豆油和菜籽油进口都主要是对大豆和棕榈油进口的替代。1996年大豆进口关税降低使大豆和棕榈油进口发生了结构性转变;入世对菜籽油进口有明显影响,而对油菜籽和豆油的影响不大。
第四章是对中国植物油产品进口来源地的分析。本章介绍了世界植物油产品市场的主要进出口国及市场垄断竞争格局,发现在世界植物油产品市场上,卖方和买方市场都是寡头垄断市场,但卖方的垄断程度高于买方。然后运用AIDS模型分析了主要出口国在中国市场上的竞争地位,发现随着中国对植物油产品支出水平的提高,中国将对巴西大豆和豆油、加拿大油菜籽、印尼棕榈油和德国的菜籽油有强劲的需求。最后通过测算进口依赖性系数分析了中国对主要进口来源国的依赖程度,结果显示中国植物油产品的进口相对来说是有保障的,但仍存在一定的风险。
第五章分析了植物油产品国内外价格、进口价格中间存在的规律。首先对国内外市场整合程度进行了分析,发现随着中国植物油产品市场的开放,国内外市场整合,同时各产品之间也是整合的关系,国内价格被动的受到国际市场价格的影响,国外的价格波动会在较短时间内传递到国内市场。在对进口价格的分析中发现,作为进口大国的中国往往进口价格与进口数量同步波动,没有进口定价权,使得中国植物油产品行情容易被国际价格主导,国内的油料种植户和本土植物油加工企业的利益受损。
第六章分析了中国植物油产品进口对植物油产业及社会福利的影响。大量的进口使国内植物油产业处于危机状态。如果不重视发展国内生产,提高产品的国际竞争力,植物油产品进口会对国内生产造成较大冲击。进口定价权的缺失导致进口福利损失严重,植物油产品的大量进口和外资垄断加工业使国内生产者福利受损,转基因植物油产品进口威胁到消费者身体健康和国内生态环境安全。
最后一章是结论和政策建议。在归纳前面第二章到第六章分析结论的基础上,提出了中国植物油产品进口贸易政策设计的基本思路和具体政策措施,以供相关部门参考。总体思路就是以保护国内生产者利益和产业安全为主,兼顾消费者利益;以国内支持和调控政策为主,辅之以战略性贸易保护政策。如果这些政策得以实施,中国的社会福利将提高。
总之,通过全文的分析,我们可以发现植物油产品进口贸易中存在的一些规律,如大豆和棕榈油在国内收入进一步提高的情况下会增加进口量;随着中国对植物油产品支出水平的提高,中国将对巴西大豆和豆油、加拿大油菜籽、印尼棕榈油和德国的菜籽油有强劲的需求。同时看到中国植物油产品进口中存在的问题,如进口来源地过于集中,生物能源的发展降低了国际市场的可靠性;缺乏进口“定价权”;植物油产品的大量进口使中国植物油产业处于危机状况,降低了社会福利。
针对这些规律和问题,笔者提出了以生产支持、价格调控和扶持本土企业为主的国内政策,以及以进口策略、技术性贸易壁垒、贸易救济措施和农业谈判对策为主的贸易政策措施体系。希望本研究能够为政府相关部门提供决策参考,实现中国植物油产业的发展壮大,提高社会整体的福利水平。
As the income rises, consumption of vegetable oils increases obviously. Oilseeds and vegetable oils have became one of the greatest kind of importing agricultural products, and more and more lie on the world market. The consumption mainly relies on great amount of imports, while domestic production of main oilseeds stands and indigenous processing enterprises have gradually been controlled by foreign capital. As an important part of CPI, vegetable oils' prices are influenced by world prices, which is disadvantegeous to people's life and macroeconomy. The problem of edible oil supply is more and more important as it is the part of food supplies security.
The disadvantegeous of oilseeds and vegetable oils import arouse the government recogniton. Chinese government gives out some policies in order to develop oilseeds production and control domestic prices. However, openness of oilseeds and vegetable oils' markets makes greater import, which leads greater reliance on world market. So we also face a grime situation. In order to develop domestic vegetable oil industry and improve autarky ratio, this paper concetrate on oilseeds and vegetable oils' import, analyses the factors which influence import and some problems, give some contermeasures.
This paper chooses soybean, rapeseed, palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil to represent the whole oilseeds and vegetable oils. The whole paper is composed of seven chapters, which are as follows.
The first chapter is introduction of the paper, which includes the background and meaning, objects and the main content, analyse path and methods, data resouces, correlative disquisition, some innovation and scarcity of this paper, and the research expectation.
The second chapter introduces Chinese oilseeds and vegetable oils' import situation, which mainly includes the import and export volume during 1987-2008, breed composition of import, main products' import volume and sources, China status on the world market. We find that China is a net import country of oilseeds and vegetable oils, with a high concentration of import sources, and have an important status of oilseeds and vegetable oils' production, consumption and import. China has become the greatest import country of soybean, palm oil and soybean oil.
The third chapter analyses the influence factors of import. The factors are analysed qualitatively at first, and then constructs models. The conclusion is that soybean and palm oil have great influence on other products' import, rapeseed import is complementarity of domestic production, soybean oil and rapeseed oil are substitution of soybean and palm oil import, and tariff reduction of soybean in 1996 changed soybean and palm oil import structure, entering the WTO has great influence on rapeseed oil import.
The forth chapter is an analysis of import soure places. This chapter introduces the main import and export countries of world, which tells us that the seller's and buyer's markets are oligarchically monopolized, but monoplization degree is higher for the front one. An Almost Ideal Demand System is used to estimate expenditure and price elasticities in the Chinese oilseeds and vegetable oils import market to assess the comparative position of the market participants. Results for expenditure elasticities indicate that the Brazil soybean and soybean oil, Canada rapeseed, Indonesia palm oil and Germany rapeseed oil gains over imports when Chinese consumers' total expenditures increase. In order to analyze the reliability of importing source, we calculated some index. The conclusion is that soybean and soybean oil have the greatest reliability of importing source, rapeseed and rapeseed oil have the lowest, and palm oil is between them. In one word, the importing source of oilseeds and vegetable oils is ultimately reassuring.
The fifth chapter analyses market integration of intra- and inter-national oilseeds and vegetable oils' markets. Our results confirm market integration in long-term and in short-term except international peanut price and rapeseed price. International prices have strong influences on intranational prices, while intranational prices have a little influence on international prices. After analysing the relationship of import prices and quantities, we find they are positively correlated, which is because we don't have the pricing right.
The sixth chapter is an analysis of import influences. The industry of palm oil, soybean and soybean oil are in crisis, rapeseed is not safe, and rapeseed oil is basically safe. The huge import makes the whole industry in crisis. In order to judge the consequences for domestic production and welfare, this chapter calculates the Armington substitution elasticity and import welfare fluctuation value. In short-term, import has a little shock on domestic production. Long-term elasticity is so huge that import would have struck domestic production and reduced welfare if we didn't develop production. Reduction of import welfare is mainly caused by lack of pricing right. The huge import reduces the producers' and consumers' welfare.
The last chapter is conclusion and policy advice. On basis of the fomer conclusions, we bring forward the whole policy design path and particular countermeasures. The policy must put the producers' benefit first. Domestic policy is the main part, while the trade policy assists domestic policy. If government put these policies in practice, the social welfare would have been improved.
In a word, this paper find some rules of oilseeds and vegetable oils' import. Such as import influence factors and resouce places' status in Chinese market. Also this paper brings forward some problems of import. Such as high concentration of import source places, development of bio-energy reduce the security of world market, lack of pricing right. The huge import make the vegetable oil industry in crsis, and reduce the social welfare. So we must develop domestic production and improve autarky ratio.
植物油产品进口依赖性不断提高对我国植物油产业和国民经济产生的不利影响,引起了国家领导和相关部门的重视,并出台了一系列政策措施,以恢复国内油料生产,控制植物油价格波动。尽管如此,随着我国对植物油市场开放的入世承诺兑现,以及多哈回合谈判的深入,中国植物油市场的贸易开放程度进一步扩大,植物油产业将面临未来更猛烈的进口冲击,对国际市场的依赖程度有可能更高。同时国际上生物柴油产业的快速发展,使我国植物油产品的进口保障程度降低。植物油产品的进口形势依然严峻,国内油料生产和植物油加工业发展的威胁依然存在。所以,本研究试图以植物油产品的进口贸易为突破口,分析进口影响因素、进口中存在的问题以及进口对我国的影响,找到应对进口冲击的对策,以壮大国内植物油产业,提高植物油自给率和本国社会福利。
本研究基于植物油产品进口,选择了大豆、油菜籽、棕榈油、豆油和菜籽油这五种进口量和国内消费量较大的产品进行分析。全部研究主要包括七个部分的内容,分析了中国在植物油产品进口中存在的规律和问题,进口对国内植物油产业和社会福利的影响,提出了相关政策建议。每个部分的具体内容和相关结论如下:
第一章是研究导论,介绍了本研究的背景和意义,研究目标和研究内容,研究思路、研究方法与数据来源,国内外相关研究动态,本研究的创新和不足之处,以及研究展望。
第二章是对中国植物油产品进口贸易概况的介绍。主要包括1987—2008年期间植物油产品进出口总量变化情况,植物油产品进口的品种构成,主要植物油产品的进出口数量变化情况及其进口来源地构成,中国植物油产品进口贸易在世界市场上的地位。本章分析发现中国是植物油产品的净进口国,进口来源地非常集中,中国植物油产品的生产、消费和进口在世界市场上都占有重要的地位,中国已成为大豆、棕榈油和豆油的第一大进口国。
第三章对中国植物油产品进口的影响因素进行了分析。首先对主要影响因素进行了定性分析,然后将各因素纳入模型进行计量分析。结果显示每种植物油产品的进口影响因素都各不相同,大豆进口量对收入和价格变量(包括汇率)的变化都很敏感;油菜籽的进口主要是弥补国内产量的不足,以满足菜籽油的生产;棕榈油进口受国内需求和进口价格的影响,在一定程度上是对大豆进口的替代;豆油和菜籽油进口都主要是对大豆和棕榈油进口的替代。1996年大豆进口关税降低使大豆和棕榈油进口发生了结构性转变;入世对菜籽油进口有明显影响,而对油菜籽和豆油的影响不大。
第四章是对中国植物油产品进口来源地的分析。本章介绍了世界植物油产品市场的主要进出口国及市场垄断竞争格局,发现在世界植物油产品市场上,卖方和买方市场都是寡头垄断市场,但卖方的垄断程度高于买方。然后运用AIDS模型分析了主要出口国在中国市场上的竞争地位,发现随着中国对植物油产品支出水平的提高,中国将对巴西大豆和豆油、加拿大油菜籽、印尼棕榈油和德国的菜籽油有强劲的需求。最后通过测算进口依赖性系数分析了中国对主要进口来源国的依赖程度,结果显示中国植物油产品的进口相对来说是有保障的,但仍存在一定的风险。
第五章分析了植物油产品国内外价格、进口价格中间存在的规律。首先对国内外市场整合程度进行了分析,发现随着中国植物油产品市场的开放,国内外市场整合,同时各产品之间也是整合的关系,国内价格被动的受到国际市场价格的影响,国外的价格波动会在较短时间内传递到国内市场。在对进口价格的分析中发现,作为进口大国的中国往往进口价格与进口数量同步波动,没有进口定价权,使得中国植物油产品行情容易被国际价格主导,国内的油料种植户和本土植物油加工企业的利益受损。
第六章分析了中国植物油产品进口对植物油产业及社会福利的影响。大量的进口使国内植物油产业处于危机状态。如果不重视发展国内生产,提高产品的国际竞争力,植物油产品进口会对国内生产造成较大冲击。进口定价权的缺失导致进口福利损失严重,植物油产品的大量进口和外资垄断加工业使国内生产者福利受损,转基因植物油产品进口威胁到消费者身体健康和国内生态环境安全。
最后一章是结论和政策建议。在归纳前面第二章到第六章分析结论的基础上,提出了中国植物油产品进口贸易政策设计的基本思路和具体政策措施,以供相关部门参考。总体思路就是以保护国内生产者利益和产业安全为主,兼顾消费者利益;以国内支持和调控政策为主,辅之以战略性贸易保护政策。如果这些政策得以实施,中国的社会福利将提高。
总之,通过全文的分析,我们可以发现植物油产品进口贸易中存在的一些规律,如大豆和棕榈油在国内收入进一步提高的情况下会增加进口量;随着中国对植物油产品支出水平的提高,中国将对巴西大豆和豆油、加拿大油菜籽、印尼棕榈油和德国的菜籽油有强劲的需求。同时看到中国植物油产品进口中存在的问题,如进口来源地过于集中,生物能源的发展降低了国际市场的可靠性;缺乏进口“定价权”;植物油产品的大量进口使中国植物油产业处于危机状况,降低了社会福利。
针对这些规律和问题,笔者提出了以生产支持、价格调控和扶持本土企业为主的国内政策,以及以进口策略、技术性贸易壁垒、贸易救济措施和农业谈判对策为主的贸易政策措施体系。希望本研究能够为政府相关部门提供决策参考,实现中国植物油产业的发展壮大,提高社会整体的福利水平。
As the income rises, consumption of vegetable oils increases obviously. Oilseeds and vegetable oils have became one of the greatest kind of importing agricultural products, and more and more lie on the world market. The consumption mainly relies on great amount of imports, while domestic production of main oilseeds stands and indigenous processing enterprises have gradually been controlled by foreign capital. As an important part of CPI, vegetable oils' prices are influenced by world prices, which is disadvantegeous to people's life and macroeconomy. The problem of edible oil supply is more and more important as it is the part of food supplies security.
The disadvantegeous of oilseeds and vegetable oils import arouse the government recogniton. Chinese government gives out some policies in order to develop oilseeds production and control domestic prices. However, openness of oilseeds and vegetable oils' markets makes greater import, which leads greater reliance on world market. So we also face a grime situation. In order to develop domestic vegetable oil industry and improve autarky ratio, this paper concetrate on oilseeds and vegetable oils' import, analyses the factors which influence import and some problems, give some contermeasures.
This paper chooses soybean, rapeseed, palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil to represent the whole oilseeds and vegetable oils. The whole paper is composed of seven chapters, which are as follows.
The first chapter is introduction of the paper, which includes the background and meaning, objects and the main content, analyse path and methods, data resouces, correlative disquisition, some innovation and scarcity of this paper, and the research expectation.
The second chapter introduces Chinese oilseeds and vegetable oils' import situation, which mainly includes the import and export volume during 1987-2008, breed composition of import, main products' import volume and sources, China status on the world market. We find that China is a net import country of oilseeds and vegetable oils, with a high concentration of import sources, and have an important status of oilseeds and vegetable oils' production, consumption and import. China has become the greatest import country of soybean, palm oil and soybean oil.
The third chapter analyses the influence factors of import. The factors are analysed qualitatively at first, and then constructs models. The conclusion is that soybean and palm oil have great influence on other products' import, rapeseed import is complementarity of domestic production, soybean oil and rapeseed oil are substitution of soybean and palm oil import, and tariff reduction of soybean in 1996 changed soybean and palm oil import structure, entering the WTO has great influence on rapeseed oil import.
The forth chapter is an analysis of import soure places. This chapter introduces the main import and export countries of world, which tells us that the seller's and buyer's markets are oligarchically monopolized, but monoplization degree is higher for the front one. An Almost Ideal Demand System is used to estimate expenditure and price elasticities in the Chinese oilseeds and vegetable oils import market to assess the comparative position of the market participants. Results for expenditure elasticities indicate that the Brazil soybean and soybean oil, Canada rapeseed, Indonesia palm oil and Germany rapeseed oil gains over imports when Chinese consumers' total expenditures increase. In order to analyze the reliability of importing source, we calculated some index. The conclusion is that soybean and soybean oil have the greatest reliability of importing source, rapeseed and rapeseed oil have the lowest, and palm oil is between them. In one word, the importing source of oilseeds and vegetable oils is ultimately reassuring.
The fifth chapter analyses market integration of intra- and inter-national oilseeds and vegetable oils' markets. Our results confirm market integration in long-term and in short-term except international peanut price and rapeseed price. International prices have strong influences on intranational prices, while intranational prices have a little influence on international prices. After analysing the relationship of import prices and quantities, we find they are positively correlated, which is because we don't have the pricing right.
The sixth chapter is an analysis of import influences. The industry of palm oil, soybean and soybean oil are in crisis, rapeseed is not safe, and rapeseed oil is basically safe. The huge import makes the whole industry in crisis. In order to judge the consequences for domestic production and welfare, this chapter calculates the Armington substitution elasticity and import welfare fluctuation value. In short-term, import has a little shock on domestic production. Long-term elasticity is so huge that import would have struck domestic production and reduced welfare if we didn't develop production. Reduction of import welfare is mainly caused by lack of pricing right. The huge import reduces the producers' and consumers' welfare.
The last chapter is conclusion and policy advice. On basis of the fomer conclusions, we bring forward the whole policy design path and particular countermeasures. The policy must put the producers' benefit first. Domestic policy is the main part, while the trade policy assists domestic policy. If government put these policies in practice, the social welfare would have been improved.
In a word, this paper find some rules of oilseeds and vegetable oils' import. Such as import influence factors and resouce places' status in Chinese market. Also this paper brings forward some problems of import. Such as high concentration of import source places, development of bio-energy reduce the security of world market, lack of pricing right. The huge import make the vegetable oil industry in crsis, and reduce the social welfare. So we must develop domestic production and improve autarky ratio.
引文
[1]后文“研究对象”部分对“油料”和“植物油”的概念进行了详细介绍。为了简化名称,笔者将“油料和植物油”统称为“植物油产品”。
[2]这些数据是笔者根据联合国贸易统计数据库(http://comtrade.un.org/db/dqBaSicQuery.aSpx)的数据计算出来的。
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[2]一是因为没有关于植物油产品自给率标准的权威数据;二是从经济发展的角度来看,食用油和传统意义上的粮食一样属于粮食安全的范畴。
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[1]这在一定程度上反映了中国进口具有“大国效应”,同时也说明中国缺乏进口定价权。
[2]所谓“异步波动”就是一个增加,一个减少;即一个变动率为正,一个变动率为负。如果国内价格提高,进口价格下降,则福利增加;如果国内价格下降,进口价格提高,则福利减少。菜籽油除外。
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[2]棕榈油的饱和脂肪酸含量比猪油(43%)的还高,而其他植物油饱和脂肪酸的含量比棕榈油的低多了,花生油为19%,豆油为15%,葵花油为11%,而低芥酸菜籽油的仅为7%。
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[2]这些数据是笔者根据联合国贸易统计数据库(http://comtrade.un.org/db/dqBaSicQuery.aSpx)的数据计算出来的。
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[2]一是因为没有关于植物油产品自给率标准的权威数据;二是从经济发展的角度来看,食用油和传统意义上的粮食一样属于粮食安全的范畴。
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[1]这在一定程度上反映了中国进口具有“大国效应”,同时也说明中国缺乏进口定价权。
[2]所谓“异步波动”就是一个增加,一个减少;即一个变动率为正,一个变动率为负。如果国内价格提高,进口价格下降,则福利增加;如果国内价格下降,进口价格提高,则福利减少。菜籽油除外。
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[2]为了与经济福利相区分,这里将健康和环境方面的福利称为准福利。
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[1]目前,国内方便面以及饼干等食品加工中大部分都是用的棕榈油,同时,国内食用油市场比较混乱,而伴随色拉油等桶装油市场大规模形成和激烈竞争,再加上桶装油又没有明确标明各种植物油的比重,从追求利润的角度出发,这就加大了食用油厂家在桶装油中提高棕榈油比重的可能性。参见陈永福.世界棕榈油生产贸易现状与中国棕榈油进口增加的原因分析[J].农业展望,2007(6):31-34.
[2]棕榈油的饱和脂肪酸含量比猪油(43%)的还高,而其他植物油饱和脂肪酸的含量比棕榈油的低多了,花生油为19%,豆油为15%,葵花油为11%,而低芥酸菜籽油的仅为7%。
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