离岸市场对货币发行国金融体系的影响
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摘要
国际化货币在建立和发展过程中,其离岸市场不仅构成货币境外流通的载体,而且与货币发行国在岸金融市场相互影响。在人民币国际化过程中,我国落后的金融体系、不完善的人民币利率、汇率形成机制,已经成为阻碍其发展的重要原因。如果离岸市场与在岸市场之间能够存在相互促进的良性关联,那么对于当前我国正在积极推行的香港人民币离岸市场,就具有双重的现实意义：一方面,能够有效的推动人民币国际化；另一方面,可以促进国内金融体系改革和发展。因此,本文旨在理清离岸市场对货币发行国在岸金融体系的相互影响关系,并在此基础上提出香港人民币离岸市场发展和国内金融体系改革的相关建议。
本文在研究离岸市场对在岸金融体系的影响关系时,重点围绕其对在岸市场利率、汇率、银行业及非银行金融等方面展开讨论：
首先,界定了离岸市场的基本含义、特征和分类,并详细分析了离岸市场形成的内外在原因和此前的发展历程。
其次,对已有国际离岸市场、人民币离岸市场的国内外文献进行了总结,并对货币国际化与离岸市场关联、货币国际化规律、离岸市场交易和结算的特殊性以及离岸市场对离岸市场对货币发行国金融体系的影响机理等议题进行了逻辑归纳。
再次,针对离岸市场对货币发行国金融体系影响的议题进行了系统性地论证。一方面,借助理论模型考察了离岸市场对货币发行国境内利率、汇率以及银行业的影响；另一方面,结合实证方法对国际上主要货币在离岸、在岸两个市场间利率、汇率的关联性给出一个定量的分析结果。我们得到美元离岸、在岸两个市场间的利率价格的确存在正向的长期均衡关系,但并不是由一方主导另一方,而是两者相互影响、制约；相同期限下,离岸市场对在岸市场的影响相对更大；在短期影响的方向上,不同期限品种表现不同。关于人民币离岸、在岸两个市场间的汇率价格,除了央行和外管局通过人民币中间价和波幅限制重点管控的人民币即期汇率以外,人民币在岸掉期汇率、在岸远期汇率都明显受到离岸市场人民币汇率的影响。
此外,我们通过模型外的因素,即离岸市场独特的制度设计因素,分析了货币发行国与离岸市场之间的互动关系。即货币发行国与其离岸市场业务开展所在国或地区之间,并不单单存在竞争关系：当一国货币有境外存在的需求时,货币发行国对该国货币的管制反而促成了境外离岸市场的形成；而离岸市场业务开展所在国或地区优惠的税率和宽松的管制,又进一步促进了离岸市场的蓬勃发展。当一国货币有离岸存在的需要时,如果货币发行国没有主动建立相应的离岸市场,很可能导致在自己的管辖范围之外,即在境外其他国家或地区,自发形成该种国际货币的离岸市场。
最后,在探讨我国发展香港人民币离岸市场的过程中,我们认为可以借助离岸市场的力量促进国内的金融体系改革,并基于全文分析提出我国金融制度完善和创新的政策建议。
总之,关于离岸市场与货币发行国在岸金融体系的关联问题始终没有定论,但通过本文框架性的讨论,希望为人民币国际化的发展和人民币离岸市场的进一步完善提供理论支持。
For an international currency, the offshore market is not only a carrier of currency circulating overseas, but also interact with onshore financial market. In reality, if there is positive relationship between offshore and onshore markets, establishing and improving RMB offshore market will have dual practical significance. It is help for RMB internationalization on one hand, on the other hand it can give more impetus to onshore financial system reform. The purpose of this paper is to study the interaction between offshore market and onshore financial market, and put forward some rational and feasible advice for RMB offshore market development and domestic financial system reform.
This paper focus on the impact of offshore market on onshore interest rate, exchange rate, banking industry and non-bank financial sector.
Firstly, we define the basic meaning, characteristics and classification of the offshore market, and give a detailed analysis of the internal and external offshore market forming factors.
Secondly, we give a summary of the existing literature of the international offshore market and RMB offshore market, and generalize the offshore market issues such as the relevance between offshore and onshore market, general law of currency internationalization, trading and settlement particularities, and the Influence mechanism of offshore market on. onshore financial system.
Thirdly, we discuss the relationship between offshore and onshore market based on the sufficient analysis and systemic argumentation. On one hand, we study the impact of offshore market on onshore interest rate, exchange rate and banking industry through theoretical model, on the other hand, test the first two empirically. It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Eurodollar market and its home market, but neither side dominates the other. Besides, RMB onshore swap and forward exchange rate are strongly affected by the offshore market, but not for spot exchange rate.
Fourthly, we analyse the unique institutional design of the international offshore market. It shows that too strict domestic controls led to the formation of the offhshore market overseas. On the contrary, the preferential tax system and less government control promote the vigorous development of offshore financial market. Therefore, if there are new requirements overseas, but governments did not build the relevant offshore market actively, offshore market will show up spontaneously beside the control of the currency issuing countries.
In the end, we believe that RMB offshore market will play the important impetus role in the domestic financial system reform. We also make our suggestions on the improvement and innovation of domestic financial system.
In a word, the interaction between offshore market and onshore financial market is still not fully understood. But this paper hopes to give an integrated framework to the further research on this problem. Meanwhile, we expect to provide theoretical support for the development of RMB offshore market and RMB internationalization.
本文在研究离岸市场对在岸金融体系的影响关系时,重点围绕其对在岸市场利率、汇率、银行业及非银行金融等方面展开讨论：
首先,界定了离岸市场的基本含义、特征和分类,并详细分析了离岸市场形成的内外在原因和此前的发展历程。
其次,对已有国际离岸市场、人民币离岸市场的国内外文献进行了总结,并对货币国际化与离岸市场关联、货币国际化规律、离岸市场交易和结算的特殊性以及离岸市场对离岸市场对货币发行国金融体系的影响机理等议题进行了逻辑归纳。
再次,针对离岸市场对货币发行国金融体系影响的议题进行了系统性地论证。一方面,借助理论模型考察了离岸市场对货币发行国境内利率、汇率以及银行业的影响；另一方面,结合实证方法对国际上主要货币在离岸、在岸两个市场间利率、汇率的关联性给出一个定量的分析结果。我们得到美元离岸、在岸两个市场间的利率价格的确存在正向的长期均衡关系,但并不是由一方主导另一方,而是两者相互影响、制约；相同期限下,离岸市场对在岸市场的影响相对更大；在短期影响的方向上,不同期限品种表现不同。关于人民币离岸、在岸两个市场间的汇率价格,除了央行和外管局通过人民币中间价和波幅限制重点管控的人民币即期汇率以外,人民币在岸掉期汇率、在岸远期汇率都明显受到离岸市场人民币汇率的影响。
此外,我们通过模型外的因素,即离岸市场独特的制度设计因素,分析了货币发行国与离岸市场之间的互动关系。即货币发行国与其离岸市场业务开展所在国或地区之间,并不单单存在竞争关系：当一国货币有境外存在的需求时,货币发行国对该国货币的管制反而促成了境外离岸市场的形成；而离岸市场业务开展所在国或地区优惠的税率和宽松的管制,又进一步促进了离岸市场的蓬勃发展。当一国货币有离岸存在的需要时,如果货币发行国没有主动建立相应的离岸市场,很可能导致在自己的管辖范围之外,即在境外其他国家或地区,自发形成该种国际货币的离岸市场。
最后,在探讨我国发展香港人民币离岸市场的过程中,我们认为可以借助离岸市场的力量促进国内的金融体系改革,并基于全文分析提出我国金融制度完善和创新的政策建议。
总之,关于离岸市场与货币发行国在岸金融体系的关联问题始终没有定论,但通过本文框架性的讨论,希望为人民币国际化的发展和人民币离岸市场的进一步完善提供理论支持。
For an international currency, the offshore market is not only a carrier of currency circulating overseas, but also interact with onshore financial market. In reality, if there is positive relationship between offshore and onshore markets, establishing and improving RMB offshore market will have dual practical significance. It is help for RMB internationalization on one hand, on the other hand it can give more impetus to onshore financial system reform. The purpose of this paper is to study the interaction between offshore market and onshore financial market, and put forward some rational and feasible advice for RMB offshore market development and domestic financial system reform.
This paper focus on the impact of offshore market on onshore interest rate, exchange rate, banking industry and non-bank financial sector.
Firstly, we define the basic meaning, characteristics and classification of the offshore market, and give a detailed analysis of the internal and external offshore market forming factors.
Secondly, we give a summary of the existing literature of the international offshore market and RMB offshore market, and generalize the offshore market issues such as the relevance between offshore and onshore market, general law of currency internationalization, trading and settlement particularities, and the Influence mechanism of offshore market on. onshore financial system.
Thirdly, we discuss the relationship between offshore and onshore market based on the sufficient analysis and systemic argumentation. On one hand, we study the impact of offshore market on onshore interest rate, exchange rate and banking industry through theoretical model, on the other hand, test the first two empirically. It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Eurodollar market and its home market, but neither side dominates the other. Besides, RMB onshore swap and forward exchange rate are strongly affected by the offshore market, but not for spot exchange rate.
Fourthly, we analyse the unique institutional design of the international offshore market. It shows that too strict domestic controls led to the formation of the offhshore market overseas. On the contrary, the preferential tax system and less government control promote the vigorous development of offshore financial market. Therefore, if there are new requirements overseas, but governments did not build the relevant offshore market actively, offshore market will show up spontaneously beside the control of the currency issuing countries.
In the end, we believe that RMB offshore market will play the important impetus role in the domestic financial system reform. We also make our suggestions on the improvement and innovation of domestic financial system.
In a word, the interaction between offshore market and onshore financial market is still not fully understood. But this paper hopes to give an integrated framework to the further research on this problem. Meanwhile, we expect to provide theoretical support for the development of RMB offshore market and RMB internationalization.
引文
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