城市旅游发展动力机制的理论与实证研究
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摘要
城市旅游发展动力机制问题是近年来学者才给予关注的新话题,但目前的研究成果存在研究内容零散而不系统、研究方法偏重于定性、研究结果偏重于理论而缺乏可操作性等不足。本文在理论分析的基础上,综合运用系统分析、主成分分析及实证分析等研究方法,重点研究了城市旅游发展动力的主导因子、动力模式,动力系统的结构、组成要素、系统功能、运行机制、因果关系模型和主要反馈回路等问题,力求为我国城市旅游发展提供科学的理论依据和适用的操作方法。
本文首先对国内外城市旅游发展历程、特征与态势进行简要分析;其次,运用主成分分析法,选择样本城市对城市旅游发展动力因子进行量化分析,得出城市旅游发展关键取决于三个主要动力——资源动力、经济动力和社会动力的重要结论;第三,基于三种主导动力,建立城市旅游发展的四种典型动力模式——资源动力模式、市场动力模式、形象动力模式和社会动力模式,对动力模式的演化机理做了深入剖析,对每一种动力模式的启动条件、运行机制及作用进行了深入而系统的研究,得出了具有操作性的结论;第四,构建了城市旅游发展动力系统的理论框架,分析了其结构框架、系统特征及功能特征,在此基础上,运用系统动力学理论具体研究该系统的运行情况,对该系统的因果反馈回路进行了详细的分析;最后,运用系统动力学原理和软件构建了城市旅游发展动力系统仿真模型,以山东省泰安市为对象,对城市旅游发展动力系统仿真模型进行模拟,对城市旅游发展趋势加以预测,对系统运行结果进行分析,并针对泰安市城市旅游发展的问题提出具体的发展对策与建议。
Driving mechanism of urban tourism development is a new topic discussed by scholars recently. However, the present research results exist in all kinds of deficiencies, such as the research content is scattered but systematic, the research method stresses in quality and the results stress in theory but lack practice etc. We synthetically use the theory and the method, such as system analysis, principal component analysis, and real diagnosis analysis etc, emphasize on the dominant gene, power pattern of urban tourism development, and also on the system’s structure, composition factor, system’s function, running mechanism, causal relation model, and main feed back cycles. We make efforts to provide scientific theory basis and the suitable operating procedure to the urban tourism development in our country.
First, the article starts with the analysis on the course, characteristic and situation of domestic and overseas urban tourism development. Second, by using the principal component analysis, we analysis on the power factors of the urban tourism development quantitatively, put up the conclusion that three determinant factors of urban tourism development are the resource power, economy power, and society power. Third based on three determinant powers, we establish four kinds of power pattern, namely resource power pattern, market power pattern, image power pattern, and society power pattern, analysis on evolvement mechanism of power pattern, research in the startup condition, running mechanism, and function comprehensively and systematically, put forward the exercisable conclusion. Fourth, by constructing the power system of urban tourism development, we furthermore analysis structural frame, the characteristic and the function characteristic of the system, and also make the concrete description to the system. Furthermore, we specifically studies the system’s running situation by the system dynamics theory, analysis the causes and effects feedback cycle of the system detailedly. Finally, we construct the simulation model of the power system of urban tourism development by using the system dynamics principle and software VENSIM. we take the Tai-An city as the object, carry on the simulation model of the power system of urban tourism development, and analyze and forecast the result of the model, and aimly propose suggestion and countermeasure for further improvement.
本文首先对国内外城市旅游发展历程、特征与态势进行简要分析;其次,运用主成分分析法,选择样本城市对城市旅游发展动力因子进行量化分析,得出城市旅游发展关键取决于三个主要动力——资源动力、经济动力和社会动力的重要结论;第三,基于三种主导动力,建立城市旅游发展的四种典型动力模式——资源动力模式、市场动力模式、形象动力模式和社会动力模式,对动力模式的演化机理做了深入剖析,对每一种动力模式的启动条件、运行机制及作用进行了深入而系统的研究,得出了具有操作性的结论;第四,构建了城市旅游发展动力系统的理论框架,分析了其结构框架、系统特征及功能特征,在此基础上,运用系统动力学理论具体研究该系统的运行情况,对该系统的因果反馈回路进行了详细的分析;最后,运用系统动力学原理和软件构建了城市旅游发展动力系统仿真模型,以山东省泰安市为对象,对城市旅游发展动力系统仿真模型进行模拟,对城市旅游发展趋势加以预测,对系统运行结果进行分析,并针对泰安市城市旅游发展的问题提出具体的发展对策与建议。
Driving mechanism of urban tourism development is a new topic discussed by scholars recently. However, the present research results exist in all kinds of deficiencies, such as the research content is scattered but systematic, the research method stresses in quality and the results stress in theory but lack practice etc. We synthetically use the theory and the method, such as system analysis, principal component analysis, and real diagnosis analysis etc, emphasize on the dominant gene, power pattern of urban tourism development, and also on the system’s structure, composition factor, system’s function, running mechanism, causal relation model, and main feed back cycles. We make efforts to provide scientific theory basis and the suitable operating procedure to the urban tourism development in our country.
First, the article starts with the analysis on the course, characteristic and situation of domestic and overseas urban tourism development. Second, by using the principal component analysis, we analysis on the power factors of the urban tourism development quantitatively, put up the conclusion that three determinant factors of urban tourism development are the resource power, economy power, and society power. Third based on three determinant powers, we establish four kinds of power pattern, namely resource power pattern, market power pattern, image power pattern, and society power pattern, analysis on evolvement mechanism of power pattern, research in the startup condition, running mechanism, and function comprehensively and systematically, put forward the exercisable conclusion. Fourth, by constructing the power system of urban tourism development, we furthermore analysis structural frame, the characteristic and the function characteristic of the system, and also make the concrete description to the system. Furthermore, we specifically studies the system’s running situation by the system dynamics theory, analysis the causes and effects feedback cycle of the system detailedly. Finally, we construct the simulation model of the power system of urban tourism development by using the system dynamics principle and software VENSIM. we take the Tai-An city as the object, carry on the simulation model of the power system of urban tourism development, and analyze and forecast the result of the model, and aimly propose suggestion and countermeasure for further improvement.
引文
①王旭科,“大明湖:从“园中湖”到“城中湖”,《中国旅游报》2004年5月14日第6版
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