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经济强县财政农业支出效益研究
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摘要
长期以来,传统农业转型问题一直是发展经济学的重要问题,很多学者致力于研究农业怎样能够成为发展中国家经济发展的动力来源,而这一问题的核心就在于发展中国家的传统农业实现有效地转型。农业不应该成为现代化发展被摒弃的部分,现代农业是国家发展的重要基础和保障,传统农业的现代化进程才是国家稳定发展的必经之路。就我国而言,庞大的传统农业体系的转型有赖于政府财政农业支出的保障,然而财税体制改革以来,县级政府财政收入受到很大影响,广大县域地区财政投入总量不足,财政农业支出更是捉襟见肘,我国传统农业的现代化进程缓慢。
     相比于其他县域发展农业所面临财政支出不足的困窘,经济强县在推动农业现代化有着突出的优势,应起到标杆作用,这是因为经济强县有着依靠前期工业化积累起来的财政实力,财政农业支出在绝对规模和相对规模上都具备了推动传统农业转型的可能。但现实情况是,处于高速发展期的我国对工业化和城镇化的高度重视,上级政府重“GDP”考核的政策导向使经济强县对传统农业转型的重视程度不足,工业化和城镇化带来的农业人口和实际耕地双降,这直接导致了经济强县一方面由于路径依赖不断加大财政农业支出,一方面未有效地将财政农业支出用于农业现代化和产业化的推进,这带来的直接结果就是经济强县的财政农业支出效益长期处于低水平状态。
     经济强县财政农业支出的规模优势源于两个方面,首先是经济强县自身的财政支出总量随着财政收入的增加而不断增大,财政农业支出也随着增加;其次是经济强县有着更强的行政资源和行政能力,善于获得上级的财政农业支出。经济强县在有着相比其他县域明显的财政农业支出规模优势的同时,在财政农业支出结构方面却并不合理,在财政农业支出的对象、使用方式等方面存在问题。其他县域尤其是经济一般而农业有基础的县域,更加注重有限的财政农业支出的使用,充分将其合理配置,而经济强县对农业和农村的补贴等投入由于耕地荒芜、农民角色转变使高投入但边际效益递减,这也直接导致了本该成为农业现代化引领者的经济强县在财政农业支出效率上甚至会弱于其他县域。
     然而,经济强县财政农业支出长期在低水平会导致错过农业现代化发展机遇期。经济强县经济的高速发展带来的农业问题远比经济薄弱县来的严重,农民身份“工人化”趋势扩展了农民多元化收入来源的同时,降低了农民对土地的依赖性,理所当然地出现了耕地抛荒的情况。农地的低回报率,理性的农民转而选择“外出打工”维持生计,这使得耕地抛荒的情况在经济强县十分普遍。农业实际从业人口和农村实际耕种面积在经济强县的“双降”,使经济强县面临着这样的情况,或发展农业现代化,用农业的工业化带来农业的新一轮发展,或将使农业彻底沦为配角。
     因此,本研究的总体目标是:基于之前关于财政农业、县级经济发展、农业现代化、财政农业支出效益等理论研究成果以及国外政府财政农业支出实践的基础上,采用一元回归分析、DEA模型等测算经济强县财政农业支出的规模效益、结构效益及财政农业支出使用效益。尝试以路径依赖理论解释经济强县在财政农业支出上的支出轨迹;从边际效应递减理论出发解释经济强县对农业补贴的效益;从农村公共产品属性及变更视角解释经济强县财政农业支出结构特点。在此基础上,深入研究经济强县财政农业支出的特征及模式,提出适宜的提高经济强县财政农业支出效益的具体政策建议。
     为此,本研究主要从以下几个方面展开论述:(1)厘清经济强县财政农业支出效益的本质、基础概念。(2)运用一元回归和灰色关联等计量方法分析财政农业支出规模和结构。(3)以DEA模型为计量方式,分析经济强县近10年来财政农业支出资金的效益与其他县域经济水平之间的差距。(4)通过对世界各国财政农业支出经验的国际比较,为提高经济强县财政农业支出规模、结构和资金效益指明方向。(5)围绕研究结论展开政策讨论,提出政策建议。
     在具体的研究方法上,(1)本文尝试通过运用文献归纳方法,系统梳理财政农业支出在一些概念上的差异,提出假设及研究模型。(2)运用一元回归和灰色关联等计量方法分析财政农业支出规模和结构,表明经济强县的财政农业支出在规模上并不是静态,而是处于动态变化中,经济强县财政农业支出的农业产出弹性变化却不明显。结构上经济强县的科技三项费用对农业总产值的贡献率较低,农业基础设施投入中具有社会性的大中型农田水利设施占的比重较大,而直接惠利于农民的小型基础设施建设的比重则较小。(3)以经济强县财政农业支出资金效益为对象,以DEA模型为计量方式,得出经济强县财政农业支出总量过度与缺乏,资金结构不合理,支农资金到位率低,支出地区不平衡,重点不突出,体制不完善、监督手段落后。
     本研究的结论有:(1)在财政农业支出资金效率方面上,经济强县并未与其他县域经济拉大距离,甚至一些经济强县明显弱于其他县域。(2)经济强县财政农业支出规模、财政农业支出结构及财政农业支出资金等的计量分析,得出经济强县财政农业支出规模呈现上升趋势,路径依赖效果明显。(3)经济强县的农业补贴边际效应递减,人均财政农业支出增长的同时农业人口减少、实际耕地减少。(4)经济强县财政农业支出对象应以农业龙头企业为主,发挥农业工业化企业的带动作用,但目前这些工作开展得十分有限。(5)经济强县工农混用的公共产品是影响财政农业支出效益的重要原因。(6)经济强县财政农业支出中的科技支出普遍不足,主要是现行制度的不完善限制了农业科技支出流向最重要的主体——企业和第三方。(7)导致经济强县无法专注于财政农业支出带动农业现代化的原因是当前压力型政治体制下的考核指标。本文还总结了在经济百强县中,形成了以“优秀农业—政府主导型”的“整合型”、“优秀农业—民营主导型”的“融合型”、“薄弱农业—政府主导型”的“磨合型”、“薄弱农业—民营主导型”的“竞合型”四种经济强县的财政农业支出模式。同时,本文还专门研究西方国家财政农业支出的有效做法,重点考察了西方国家地方政府对财政农业支出对象的选择。
     为了缓解上述矛盾,本研究认为应从以下几个方面规范经济强县财政农业支出:(1)财政支出管理立法,规范财政支出的法律依据;(2)构建全过程监督体系,提高财政农业支出的透明度;(3)部署财政农业支出总体战略,实现农业产业化目标;(4)优化财政农业支出结构,加大农业科技化投入。实现经济强县以工业带动农业产业化的目标。(5)实现经济强县传统农业向都市农业的转型。
     由于当前对县级政府财政农业支出研究的前期积累有限,而发现经济强县财政农业支出效益低的事实,并强调经济强县要从不同角度出发实现传统农业的现代化,因此本研究的内容具有一定的创新性。本文有机结合了计量经济学、行政管理学等方法,分析经济强县财政农业支出效益。但由于本研究条件所限,与江苏省、山东省等地的经济强县相比,福建省的经济强县财政农业支出的特征无法有效地囊括全国经济强县财政农业支出的特征。对此总结出全国范围的财政农业支出模式,不同模式之间存在着极强的相似性,但也有极大的差异性。因此,本课题今后有待进一步研究。
The transformation of traditional agriculture has long been the important issue ofdevelopment economics, and many scholars have been working on how agriculturecould become a driving force of economic development in developing countries, butthe core of the problem lies in effective traditional agriculture transition in developingcountries. Agriculture should not be abandoned during the modernization, rather,modern agriculture is the significant foundation and guarantee of nationaldevelopment and modernization of traditional agricultural is the only way of nationalsteady progression. As far as our country concerned, the transformation of so largeand complex traditional agricultural system hangs on the government's fiscalallocation on agriculture; however, the fiscal reform had a strong impact on thecounty government revenue. Due to the insufficient investment in the majority of thecounties, agricultural fiscal expenditure shrinks further, and Chinese agriculturemodernization makes little progress.
     Compared with the ubiquitous financial embarrassment of other counties, theeconomically strong counties have prominent advantages in promoting themodernization of agriculture, and are expected to serve as a benchmark role,this isbecause economically developed counties are likely to drive the transformation oftraditional agriculture in both utterly scale and relative scale, owing to the previousfinancial accumulation of industrialization. But the reality is that China developingwith a fast pace puts a high value on industrialization and urbanization, and evaluateslower tiers of government in large measure based on GDP, it causes the economicallydeveloped counties pay inadequate attention to traditional agricultural transformation,and bring about the reduction of agricultural population and cultivated area. And theseled directly to increase fiscal spending on agriculture in economically developedcounties due to path dependence, on the other hand, fiscal spending on agriculture forthe advancement of agricultural modernization and industrialization is ineffective,which results in the long-term and low-level state of fiscal spending on agriculture.
     The scale advantage of the economically developed counties’ fiscal spending onagriculture stems from two aspects: Firstly, economically developed counties' totalfiscal expenditure is increasing along with the increase of fiscal revenue, and with thefiscal spending on agriculture; Secondly, economically developed counties have betteradministrative resources and capacity,more cconvenient to get fiscal support fromhigher level of government. But there are also problems, such as unreasonableagricultural financial expenditure structure, object of fiscal support and the way theyuse them. Moreover, other agriculture-based counties with moderate economy paymore attention to the rational use of limited fiscal agriculture spending, wheneconomically developed counties are in diminishing marginal utility because ofcultivated land desolated and farmers' role change, therefore the efficiency of fiscalexpenditure on agriculture is even weaker than the other counties.
     Nevertheless, long-term and low level of the economically developed counties’fiscal expenditure on agriculture will miss opportunities of agriculture modernization.The agricultural issues caused by rapid economic development are more serious in economically developed counties than economically moderated counties. The identitychange from “farmer” to "workers" extends various income sources for farmers butreduces their dependence on the land, and so the cultivated land should be desolated.Low returns of cultivated land drive rational farmers migrants out for work andfarmland are widely abandoned in economic counties. Farming population andcultivated land acreage have both declined in economically developed counties, and itforces the government to make a choice: speed up agricultural modernizationindustrialization to bring a new round of development, or make agriculture completelyreduce to a supporting role.
     Therefore, the overall goal of this study is using a regression analysis, DEAmodel scale to estimate economically developed counties’ scale, structural efficiency,and utilization of fiscal expenditure on agriculture on the basis of theoretical studiesachievements of the financial agriculture, county-level economy development,agricultural modernization, effectiveness of fiscal expenditure on agriculture,andforeign governmental agriculture expenditures. It makes an attempt to explain thetrack of agricultural financial expenditure which economically developed countyspend on with path dependency theory; explain the efficiency of agricultural subsidiesthat economically developed counties pay using the diminishing marginal effecttheory; present its structure features of agricultural financial expenditure from anotherperspective of rural public product attributes and alternation. On this basis, incubatesthe characteristics and mode of economically developed counties’ fiscal expenditureon agriculture, then table a proposal of appropriate specific policy to improve itsefficacy.
     The study discourses upon the following aspects:(1) Clarify the hypostasis andbasic concepts of the efficiency of fiscal expenditure on agriculture in economicallydeveloped counties;(2) Analyzes the size and structure of the agricultural financialexpenditure using measure methods, such as regression and gray correlation;(3)Using the DEA model to analyze the differentia between the efficiency of fiscalspending on agriculture in economically developed counties and others during the past10years;(4) Compare experience of fiscal expenditure on agriculture of differentcountries, in order to improve the scale, structure and fund efficiency of agriculturalfinancial expenditure in economically developed counties;(5)Discuss and proposepertinent policies revolve around the research conclusion.
     On the specific research methods:(1) With inductive method, this paper attemptsto analyze some conceptual differences of agricultural financial expendituresystematically, and propose some hypothesis and study models;(2) Use the measuremethods such as regression and gray correlation to analysis the scale and structure ofthe agricultural financial expenditure, which shows that fiscal expenditure onagriculture in economically developed counties is not static but dynamic, whileagricultural output elasticity is not obvious, the technology promotion contributionrate of agricultural output value is low, large and medium-sized irrigation and waterconservancy facilities station accounts for a considerable proportion in agriculturalinfrastructure investment, much more than the small-size infrastructure constructionwhich may directly benefit in favor of farmers;(3) Using the DEA model as the measure method and economically developed counties’ fiscal expenditure onagriculture as the object, we draw conclusions that economically developed counties’total fiscal expenditure on agriculture is excessive or deficient; capital structure isirrational; the actual agricultural fund is low, expenditure regions are out of balance;the focus is not prominent; system is imperfect; supervision is backward.
     Conclusions of this study (1)Economically developed counties did not distancethemselves from other counties, some even was significantly weaker;(2) Accordingto the econometric analysis of the scale, Structure and funds of economicallydeveloped counties’ agricultural fiscal expenditure, we can see that the scale ofeconomically developed counties’ agricultural fiscal expenditure is on the rise, andthe path dependence effect is obvious;(3)The marginal effect of agricultural subsidiesis diminishing, per capita agricultural financial expenditure is growing along with thedecline of agricultural population and actual cultivated land;(4)Object of agriculturalexpenditure should mainly be leading enterprises who play the leading role ofagricultural industrialization, but the work is very limited;(5)Industrial andagricultural mixed public goods is the significant course for inefficiency of fiscalexpenditure;(6)Agricultural fiscal expenditure on technology is generally inadequate,because the imperfections of the existing system limits the funds flow to the mostimportant subject——company and the third-party;(7)Because of the assessmentindicators in the pressure political system, economically developed counties areunable to focus on promoting agricultural modernization. The article also summarizesfour kinds of agricultural fiscal expenditure patterns hundred counties:“Outstandingagriculture-government-lead”(Integrated modern),“Outstanding agriculture-thecivilian-lead”(Converged modern),“Weak agriculture-government-lead”(Frazzlemodern) and “Weak agriculture-the civilian-lead”(Cooperation-competition modern).The article also specializes in effective practices of fiscal agricultural expenditure inwestern countries, investigates how the local governments of western countries tochoose the object of the agricultural fiscal expenditure.
     In order to alleviate the contradiction mentioned above, this study suggestseconomically developed counties regulate fiscal agricultural expenditure from thefollowing aspects:(1)Legislate for financial expenditure management, normative ruleof fiscal expenditure;(2) Construct the whole-process-supervision system to improvethe transparency of fiscal expenditure on agriculture;(3) Deploy the overall strategyof fiscal expenditure on agriculture to realize the agricultural industrialization goal;(4)Optimize structure of fiscal agricultural expenditure and increase agriculturaltechnology investment to realize agricultural industrialization with industry to drive;(5)Realize the transition from traditional agriculture to urban agriculture.
     In spite of the limited study on fiscal agricultural expenditure from countygovernment, this study finds the fact that the benefit of economicallydeveloped counties’ financial agricultural expenditure is low, and it puts emphasis onits modernization of traditional agriculture from different perspectives, hence, thispaper proves to be of certain novelty. This paper integrates the econometrics,administrative management method, and analysis of the benefit of fiscal agriculturalexpenditure in economically developed counties. But because of the limitation of research conditions, that compared with other strong economy counties in Jiangsu,Shandong province, the characteristics of economically developed counties fiscalagricultural expenditure in Fujian province are unable to effectively include the fulllist of characteristics of fiscal agricultural expenditure of economic counties. Thoughtdifferent models are observed to be similar and we sum up the pattern of nationalfiscal agricultural expenditure, there are differences of existing among them.Therefore, this issue still needs further research in the future.
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    1一般来说,只要两个经济变量之间存在着函数关系,我们就可用弹性来表示因变量对自变量变化的反应的敏感程度。具体地说,它是这样一个数字,它告诉我们,当一个经济变量发生1%的变动时,由它引起的另一个经济变量变动的百分比。在经济学中,弹性的一般公式为:
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    1“绿箱”政策:指的是那些由政府提供的、其费用不转嫁给消费者,并且对生产者不具有价格支持作用的政府服务计划,成员方无须承担削减义务的补贴,属于可免于削减就放行的一类补贴。绿箱政策它包括政府的一般性服务、粮食安全目的等公共原因引起的公共储备补贴、国内粮食援助补贴、与生产不挂钩的收入支持、政府参与的收入保险和收入安全网计划、自然灾害救济补贴、对生产者退休或转业补贴、资源停用或储备的补贴、农业结构调整投资补贴、农业环境保护补贴和区域性援助等十一个方面。
    2“黄箱”政策:根据《农业协议》将那些对生产和贸易产生扭曲作用的政策称为“黄箱”政策,要求成员方必须进行削减。“黄箱”政策主要包括:价格补贴,营销贷款,面积补贴,牲畜数量补贴,种子、肥料、灌溉等投入补贴,部分有补贴的贷款项目。
    3“蓝箱”政策:是指一些与生产限制计划相联系的直接支付的“黄箱措施”支持,被称为“蓝箱”的特殊措施,可得到免除减让。但其条件是必须满足下列要求之一:(1)按固定面积或者产量提供的补贴;(2)根据基期生产水平85%以下所提供的补贴;(3)按牲口的固定头数所提供的补贴。
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