美国自由贸易协定对货物贸易出口增长的实证研究
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摘要
在世界贸易组织框架下的多边自由贸易谈判陷入僵局的时候,越来越多的国家积极开展双边自由贸易协定的谈判。作为多边自由贸易谈判主导者的美国也不例外,在进入新千年之后,加快了双边自由贸易谈判的进程,目前已经与17个国家签署生效了自由贸易协定。本文通过选取在美国贸易中具有代表性的国家进行分析,考察自由贸易协定对于美国货物贸易出口的增长作用,以及这样的增长在不同类型国家之间的区别。
通过建立引力模型进行实证研究,本文得出了双边自由贸易协定对货物贸易增长效果显著的结论.并且,与自身达成自由贸易协定的成员国的生产总值越大,对货物贸易出口增长的作用就越大；达成自由贸易协定之前的关税水平越高,货物贸易出口的增长就越大；缔结自由贸易协定的国家之间的距离与货物贸易出口增长的大小之间不存在显著的关系。因此,对中国来说,在选择自由贸易协定的谈判对象的时候,从扩大出口的角度考虑,就应该尽量选择保护水平相对较高的发达国家或者经济规模较大的发展中国家,而自身与对方的地理距离则不应成为选择的标准。
More and more countries went after bilateral free trade negotiations when multilateral free trade framework under Doha Round of World Trade Organization went to deadlock. And so did the United States, which had been the leader of multilateral free trade negotiations in former rounds. It joined the bandwagon of bilateral free trade in the 21st century, speeded up its negotiation process and had free trade agreements in effect with 17 countries. In this paper, empirical analysis was based on the representative of the countries that had trade relationships with the United States. By doing that can help to observe the role of free trade agreements in cargo export growth and that growth in the distinction between different types of countries.
Through empirical analysis based on gravity model, this paper reached a conclusion that bilateral free trade agreements of the United States played an obvious positive role in its cargo export growth. More specific, the effect of free trade agreement had a positive correlation with GDP of the importer and tariff levels before the agreement; there was no significant correlation between the distance and the growth of cargo export. Therefore, China, in the choice of negotiating free trade agreements, when considered from the perspective of expanding exports, should try to choose developed countries of relatively high level of protection or large developing countries, and geographical distance should not be the judging criteria.
通过建立引力模型进行实证研究,本文得出了双边自由贸易协定对货物贸易增长效果显著的结论.并且,与自身达成自由贸易协定的成员国的生产总值越大,对货物贸易出口增长的作用就越大；达成自由贸易协定之前的关税水平越高,货物贸易出口的增长就越大；缔结自由贸易协定的国家之间的距离与货物贸易出口增长的大小之间不存在显著的关系。因此,对中国来说,在选择自由贸易协定的谈判对象的时候,从扩大出口的角度考虑,就应该尽量选择保护水平相对较高的发达国家或者经济规模较大的发展中国家,而自身与对方的地理距离则不应成为选择的标准。
More and more countries went after bilateral free trade negotiations when multilateral free trade framework under Doha Round of World Trade Organization went to deadlock. And so did the United States, which had been the leader of multilateral free trade negotiations in former rounds. It joined the bandwagon of bilateral free trade in the 21st century, speeded up its negotiation process and had free trade agreements in effect with 17 countries. In this paper, empirical analysis was based on the representative of the countries that had trade relationships with the United States. By doing that can help to observe the role of free trade agreements in cargo export growth and that growth in the distinction between different types of countries.
Through empirical analysis based on gravity model, this paper reached a conclusion that bilateral free trade agreements of the United States played an obvious positive role in its cargo export growth. More specific, the effect of free trade agreement had a positive correlation with GDP of the importer and tariff levels before the agreement; there was no significant correlation between the distance and the growth of cargo export. Therefore, China, in the choice of negotiating free trade agreements, when considered from the perspective of expanding exports, should try to choose developed countries of relatively high level of protection or large developing countries, and geographical distance should not be the judging criteria.
引文
1 庄起善.世界经济新论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005：209
2 庄起善.世界经济新论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005：210
3 郑知淑.韩美缔结自由贸易协定(FTA)及其对中韩贸易关系的预测影响分析[D].上海：复旦大学,2009
4 资料来源：根据美国贸易代表署官方网站(http://www.ustr.gov/)整理汇总。其中多米尼加共和国_中美洲自由贸易区包括了哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和多米尼加共和国；设想中的美洲自由贸易区包括加拿大、智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、多米尼克、多米尼加共和国、厄瓜多尔、萨尔瓦多、格林纳达、危地马拉、圭亚那、海地、洪都拉斯、牙买加、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、巴拉圭、秘鲁、圣基茨和尼维斯、圣卢西亚、圣文森特和格林纳丁斯、苏里南、特立尼达和多巴哥、美国、乌拉圭和委内瑞拉；东盟包括文莱、缅甸、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南；中东自由贸易区包括以色列、约旦、摩洛哥、巴林、埃及、黎巴嫩、阿尔及利亚、突尼斯、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、科威特、阿拉伯联合酋长国、也门、卡塔尔、叙利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗；南部非洲关税同盟包括博茨瓦纳、莱索托、纳米比亚、南非和斯威士兰。另外,美国还与泰国、阿联酋、马来西亚等国家或地区进行过自由贸易谈判的接触,但因无实质性的进展,或者已被包括在上文提到的地区性贸易谈判(如与东盟或中东自由贸易区)中,故不再单独列出讨论。
5 资料来源：美国贸易代表署官方网站(http://www.ustr.gov/),本章关于美国自由贸易协议内容的资料来源,若不做特别说明,均来自该网站
6 资料来源http://tcc.export.gov/Trade_Agreements/All_Trade_Agreements/exp_005439.asp
7 资料来源：北美自由贸易区秘书处网站(http://www.nafta-sec-alena.org)
8 资料来源：http://www.ustr.gov/assets/Trade_Agreements/Bilateral/Peru_TPA/Final_Texts/asset_upload_file 513_13234.pdf
9 资料来源http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/1027
10 资料来源：http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/12/03/statement-president-announcing-us-k orea-trade-agreement
11 资料来源：美洲自由贸易区网站(http://www.ftaa-alca.org/)
12 资料来源United States International Trade Commission. ASEAN:Regional Trends in Economic Integration, Export Competitiveness, and Inbound Investment for Selected Industries [R]. Washington DC:United States International Trade Commission,2010:
13 资料来源：http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/regional-economic-communities-rec/southern-afric an-customs-union-sacu
14 资料来源http://www.bilaterals.org/spip.php?rubrique55&lang=en
15 数据来源：根据美国统计署外贸司的数据整理计算所得,这里的出口都是货物贸易的出口
16 贸易数据来源：美国统计署外贸司；各国国内生产总值数据来源indexmundi各国首都距离数据来源geobytes网站；关税数据来源：世界贸易组织的贸易与关税统计工具——在线关税分析(Tariff Analysis Online)
17 朱颖.美国全球自由贸易协定战略[D].上海：上海社会科学院,2007
18 世界银行.全球经济展望(2005)[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005
19 数据来源：美国统计署外贸司
20 数据来源：美国统计署外贸司
21资料来源：中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn),本章关于中国自由贸易进程的资料来源,若不做特别说明,均来自该网站
22 指海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会,成员包括阿拉伯联合酋长国、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔、科威特和沙特阿拉伯六个国家
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[3]Berry, S. The Automobile Industry and The Mexico-US Free Trade Agreement [R]. Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1992:
[4]Bhagwati, J. Departures from Multilateralism:Regionalism and Aggressive Unilateralism, [J]. The Economic Journal,1990(100):1304-1317.
[5]Clausing, K.A. Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,34(3):677-696.
[6]Faruqee, H. Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU [R]. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund,2004:
[7]Feenstra, R.C. Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate among Alternative Theories of Trade [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1999,34(2):430-447.
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2 庄起善.世界经济新论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005：210
3 郑知淑.韩美缔结自由贸易协定(FTA)及其对中韩贸易关系的预测影响分析[D].上海：复旦大学,2009
4 资料来源：根据美国贸易代表署官方网站(http://www.ustr.gov/)整理汇总。其中多米尼加共和国_中美洲自由贸易区包括了哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和多米尼加共和国；设想中的美洲自由贸易区包括加拿大、智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、多米尼克、多米尼加共和国、厄瓜多尔、萨尔瓦多、格林纳达、危地马拉、圭亚那、海地、洪都拉斯、牙买加、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、巴拉圭、秘鲁、圣基茨和尼维斯、圣卢西亚、圣文森特和格林纳丁斯、苏里南、特立尼达和多巴哥、美国、乌拉圭和委内瑞拉；东盟包括文莱、缅甸、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南；中东自由贸易区包括以色列、约旦、摩洛哥、巴林、埃及、黎巴嫩、阿尔及利亚、突尼斯、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、科威特、阿拉伯联合酋长国、也门、卡塔尔、叙利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗；南部非洲关税同盟包括博茨瓦纳、莱索托、纳米比亚、南非和斯威士兰。另外,美国还与泰国、阿联酋、马来西亚等国家或地区进行过自由贸易谈判的接触,但因无实质性的进展,或者已被包括在上文提到的地区性贸易谈判(如与东盟或中东自由贸易区)中,故不再单独列出讨论。
5 资料来源：美国贸易代表署官方网站(http://www.ustr.gov/),本章关于美国自由贸易协议内容的资料来源,若不做特别说明,均来自该网站
6 资料来源http://tcc.export.gov/Trade_Agreements/All_Trade_Agreements/exp_005439.asp
7 资料来源：北美自由贸易区秘书处网站(http://www.nafta-sec-alena.org)
8 资料来源：http://www.ustr.gov/assets/Trade_Agreements/Bilateral/Peru_TPA/Final_Texts/asset_upload_file 513_13234.pdf
9 资料来源http://www.ustr.gov/webfm_send/1027
10 资料来源：http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/12/03/statement-president-announcing-us-k orea-trade-agreement
11 资料来源：美洲自由贸易区网站(http://www.ftaa-alca.org/)
12 资料来源United States International Trade Commission. ASEAN:Regional Trends in Economic Integration, Export Competitiveness, and Inbound Investment for Selected Industries [R]. Washington DC:United States International Trade Commission,2010:
13 资料来源：http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/regional-economic-communities-rec/southern-afric an-customs-union-sacu
14 资料来源http://www.bilaterals.org/spip.php?rubrique55&lang=en
15 数据来源：根据美国统计署外贸司的数据整理计算所得,这里的出口都是货物贸易的出口
16 贸易数据来源：美国统计署外贸司；各国国内生产总值数据来源indexmundi各国首都距离数据来源geobytes网站；关税数据来源：世界贸易组织的贸易与关税统计工具——在线关税分析(Tariff Analysis Online)
17 朱颖.美国全球自由贸易协定战略[D].上海：上海社会科学院,2007
18 世界银行.全球经济展望(2005)[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005
19 数据来源：美国统计署外贸司
20 数据来源：美国统计署外贸司
21资料来源：中国自由贸易区服务网(http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn),本章关于中国自由贸易进程的资料来源,若不做特别说明,均来自该网站
22 指海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会,成员包括阿拉伯联合酋长国、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔、科威特和沙特阿拉伯六个国家
[1]Baldwin, R. Big-Think Regionalism:A Critical Survey[R]. Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2004:
[2]Bergstrand, J. The Gravity Equation in International Trade:Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985(3):474-481.
[3]Berry, S. The Automobile Industry and The Mexico-US Free Trade Agreement [R]. Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1992:
[4]Bhagwati, J. Departures from Multilateralism:Regionalism and Aggressive Unilateralism, [J]. The Economic Journal,1990(100):1304-1317.
[5]Clausing, K.A. Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,34(3):677-696.
[6]Faruqee, H. Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU [R]. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund,2004:
[7]Feenstra, R.C. Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate among Alternative Theories of Trade [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1999,34(2):430-447.
[8]Harrigan, J. Scale Economies and The Volume of Trade [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1993,76:321-328.
[9]Helpman, E. Imperfect Competition and International Trade:Evidence From 14 Countries, [J]. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1987(1):62-81.
[10]Hertel, T. How Confident Can We Be In CGE-based Assessment of Free Trade Agreements? [R]. Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2004:
[11]Learner, E.E. American Regionalism and Global Free Trade [R]. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research,1994:
[12]Lederman, D. NAFTA at 10 Years:Lessons for Development[A]. In:The World Bank. Trade, Doha, and Development, A Window into the lssues[C]. Geneva:The World Bank,2006:259-265.
[13]Micco, A. The Currency Union Effect on Trade:Early Evidence from EMU [J]. Economic Policy,2003,37:313-356.
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