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新形势下农民创业问题研究
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摘要
创业活动是一个地区、国家乃至全球经济不断发展的根基,创新和创业精神是经济活力的源泉与发展的灵魂;同时,创业已成为促进充分就业最积极、最有效的方式之一,目前世界各国纷纷出台相关政策以鼓励和支持本国的创业活动。国内外的实践无不表明:创业在促进资源的高效利用和财富价值的创造过程中发挥独特作用。
     就农村而言,新形势下农民创业对推动和加速农村经济发展、转型与升级,解决农民就业难问题、促进农民持续增收等方面起着拨动“关捩”的作用。本文采用调查资料、现有统计数据与逻辑推理、定性与定量分析相结合的方法首先分析农民创业现状及基本特征、农民创业行为发生机制与规律;然后从微观层面考察农民创业的效率,探究农民创业的收入、就业等效应;从宏观上分析农民创业对农村经济增长、转型的推动作用;并提出农民创业行为痕迹信息挖据与利用理论。在此基础上,分析农民创业的支持路径与政策。最后,提出促进农民创业活动与构建农村创业型经济的对策与建议。
     分析农民创业形式的流变并概括农民创业的特征与规律后,得出以下判断:首先,家庭副业、专业户及重点户、专业村等形式是特殊历史条件下农民创业的特殊形式,乡镇企业这种真正意义上的农民集体创业形式拉开了农民创业浪潮,个体经济与私营经济是新时期农民创业的主要形式。其次,创业农民平均受教育年限为9.6年,年龄段以30-40岁居多,收入呈多元化且货币化水平高,与未创业家庭相比,创业家庭的消费结构发生了较为明显的变化,创业家庭除食品外的各项消费倾向都较大,其居前三位的是居住、交通通讯及教育,分别为0.212、0.176和0.141,这在自价格弹性与支出弹性等表现出相似性,创业家庭的互价格弹性比未创业家庭的互价格弹性小;再次,在现阶段工业化、城市化进程中农民创业将以承接城市产业转移为主流,逐渐形成集成化与集约化,农民创业将以现代农业园区、现代种养小区、一村一品等为主要发展趋势。
     基于农民创业规模小、层次低、区域发展不平衡及农民创业者总体素质较低等基本现状的认识,论文运用二元离散Probit模型和logit回归模型分别分析农民创业认知和创业行为的影响因素,发现青年农民与中老年农民创业认知的影响因素不同,中老年农民创业认知受到地理及地形的影响较为普遍,年龄对中老年农民创业的影响较青年农民而言也表现更为突出;而在性别上,青年农民受其影响较强,另外,家庭收入水平对青年农民的创业认知影响也很突出;人力资本、培训对农民创业的影响尤为显著,特别是职业培训,经济资本对农民创业的影响不如人力资本与社会资本显著。运用结构方程模型分析农民创业风险承受能力,结果表明:农民的“心理特质”、风险心理、风险倾向和风险感知几个因子中,农民的心理特质对其创业风险承受能力的影响最大,为0.829,排第二位的风险倾向为0.811。在考虑到农民个人特征之后,发现农民的创业风险承受能力与年龄存在倒U型曲线关系,即中年人风险承受能力比起年轻人和老年人都要高;在收入上,收入越高的农民风险承受能力越强;从受教育程度上看,与人们预期不同的是,农民风险承受能力与其受教育程度存在一定的反向关系,而不同性别的农民在创业风险承受能力上没有显著差异。
     论文还运用相关软件探究了农民创业对农村劳动力流动或迁移的影响、农民创业所形成的就业效应、农民创业对农村贫困与不平等的作用以及对农民收入的拉动作用等,得出以下的基本判断与结论:一是农民创业的就业效应总体上呈下降之势,相对于产出就业弹性系数,资本对就业的吸纳弹性系数要小;与农民的集体创业比较而言,个体创业、私营企业的就业弹性相对大;在不同产业上,第三产业的弹性要大于第二、一产业。二是农民创业对农村劳动力转移具有显著的影响作用,第一产业创业对迁出省农民转移具有正向作用,而对迁入省农民转移作用不显著;第二、三产业创业对迁出省农民转移产生了负向影响,但增强了迁入省劳动力的吸纳能力。三是农民创业一方面促进农民整体收入水平的提高,降低农村贫困化程度,但另一方面又加剧了农村收入不平等状况。四从总体上看,农民创业对农村收入具有持久正向拉动作用,东部的拉动作用大于西部,但这种拉动效应正呈减弱之势。五是在创业效率上,30-40岁年龄段的农民创业效率最高,农民受教育程度越高,创业效率越高,非农行业创业效率高于农业行业。通过分析还发现,农民创业还存在较大的提高收入的潜在空间。
     此外,论文还分析农民创业对农村经济结构变迁和农村经济增长的影响作用,得出如下观点和结论:一是我国农民的创业活动与农村非农产业的发展不协调,近些年来农村农民创业人才的耦合值一直为负值,耦合离差值都较高,最大的2003年为-17.20%,2004年为-11.13%,2007年仍接近-5%。显示了农村创业人才长期处于短缺状态,农村创业型农民不能满足农村非农产业的发展需要。二是总体而言,第一产业比重随着农村非农活动、农民创业行为的增加而降低,相反,第二、三产业与两者有正向关系。三是农村不同的农民创业形式对农村经济增长的拉动作用不同,其中私营企业投资者对农村经济拉动作用明显,而个体创业者的拉动作用不明显甚至为负值,反映出了我国农村创业环境的基本现状;由农民创业及农村非农活动推动而出现的农村劳动力分工分业对农村经济增长年贡献率为20%左右。
     基于现有的农民创业问题的研究文献,探讨了农民创业行为痕迹信息的挖掘与利用的概念与内涵。形成以下的观点:一是农民创业痕迹信息的挖掘不仅有利于政府全面掌握农民创业情况,而且对深化农民创业问题的理论研究与应用研究具有深远意义;二是为更好促进农民创业,须转变当前农民创业行为痕迹信息挖掘与利用零散的现状,推广到创业前、创业中及创业后等,形成全方位的系统体系。本文认为,这个系统性工作应由政府主导进行,保证客观、公正、全面及有效。
     最后,从构建农村创业人力资本团队、建设农民创业信息与科技服务平台等四个方面探索支持农民创业的路径;从物质投资政策、人力资本投资政策及产业发展政策等几方面就新时期面向农民创业的政策体系作分析。综合研究结果,论文认为农民创业对推动我国农村经济发展转型、促进农村经济结构转变、拉动农民收入与农村劳动力就业等方面都发挥着独特作用,但由于制度组织、市场环境、农民个体特征、农村经济环境现状等因素,不同农民创业形式对上述的影响作用存在一定差异性,不同农民的创业效率、创业认知与创业行为的影响因素不同。基于这些研究,论文从4大方面就支持和鼓励农民创业提出了具体的对策措施,着重强调了农村人力资本创业团队构建、农村创业平台体系及农村承接产业转移中二次创业与创业升级等方面对农民创业的支持作用。
Entrepreneurial activity is the foundation of economy. Innovation and Entrepreneurial spirit is the source of economic dynamism and the soul of development. Also, Entrepreneurship has become one of the most effective way in the promotion of full employment. Currently, Entrepreneurial activity is highly appreciated in nations of the world, and an increasing number of countries has been developped policies to encourage and support entrepreneurial activities. Practice has proved that entrepreneurship is playing a unique role in promoting the efficiency of resource and the process of wealth creation.
     Promotion of entrepreneurship can accelerate rural economic development, transformation and upgrading, resolve employment issues and increase their income, etc. Combined data with logic, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis methods, the law and characteristics of farmer’s entrepreneurial behavior, the association of entrepreneurshhip and farmer’s income inequality, farmer’s employment, rural inequality and poverty and economic development in rural China was researched in the dissertation.
     Based on the basic understanding of peasant Entrepreneurship such as small-scale, low level, uneven regional development, etc. Made use of discrete binary Probit model and logit regression model to analysis the factors that impact on peasant entrepreneurial cognition and entrepreneurial behavior, that shows following knowledge and conclusions: First, different from young farmers, the middle-aged farmers are more likely be impacted by geography and topography. In addition, the“age”factor impact on middle-aged is more prominent than young peasant. And gender, household income level are important factors that impact on the younger farmers. Second, the effcts of human capital and entrepreneurial training is particularly significant, especially of the vocational training, economic capital is not as important as human capital and social capital for farmers to succeed in business.Otherwise, Using of structural equation model to analyze the farmer’s capacity of entrepreneurial risk-bearing, which showed that: (1) of several factors such as farmer's "mental qualities", the risk psychological, risk preferences and risk perception, the mental qualities is largest, its value reached to 0.829, risk preferences ranked second of 0.811. (2) taking account of farmer’s personal characteristics: as to the age, the relationship between the risk-bearing capacity and farmer’s age is inverted U-curve. that is, compared to young and old farmer, risk-bearing capacity of the middle-aged should be higher; as to income, the more income, mean risk tolerance stronger. difference from the expected of people, there is a certain inverse relationship between farmer’s education level and their risk tolerance.
     Analysising the changes of peasant entrepreneurship forms and Outlining the rules and characteristics of farmer’s entrepreneurship. forming of these judgments: Firstly, household sideline production, specialized households, Co-specialized households, etc. is the special form of peasant entrepreneurship under special historical conditions. The form of township enterprises that is the sense of peasant collective entrepreneurship, which opened the wave of rural entrepreneurship, but the individual economy and private economy is the main form of peasant entrepreneurship in the new period. Secondly, the average years of schooling of peasant who start a business is 9.6 years, they mostly at the age of 30 to 40 years, and their income showed a high level of diversification and monetization. Compared to the non-business-family, entrepreneurial household consumption structure has undergone a significant changes, that is the Propensity to consume is larger in addition to food, the PC of home living, transportation and education were respectively 0.212,0.176 and 0.141, that is the top of three in all consumer products, which showed similarity as to the price elasticities and expenditure elasticity, the cross-price elasticity of non-business-family is smaller than the family-with-business. Thirdly, during the process of industrialization and urbanization, the peasant entrepreneurship will undertake the transfer of urban industry as the mainstream, and, gradually integrated with intensification,and the main trend of peasant entrepreneurship will be modern agricultural park, modern planting and breeding district, one village,one product ,etc.
     The study also used of related software to analysis of entrepreneurship effects on the rural labor migration, its’employment effect, role on poverty and inequality, as well as the pulling effect on farmer’s income. reached the following basic judgments and conclusions: First, the overall trend of employment effects was decreasing, compared to the employment elasticity of output, capital employment elasticity was smaller; employment elasticity of individual entrepreneurship and private sector is larger than collective entrepreneurship. To different industries, the tertiary industry flexibility was greater than the second and primary industry. Second, peasant entrepreneurship has significant influence on the transfer of rural labor force. Third, peasant entrepreneurship, on the one hand, raising the level of overall income and reduce rural poverty levels, but on the other hand, exacerbated income inequality in rural areas. Fourth, overall, entrepreneurship have lasting positive driving role in boosting farmer’s incomes, and it is larger in the eastern than the western, but this pulling effect is becoming increasingly weakened. Fifth, business in the 30 to 40-year-old age group is the most efficient, the higher level of education, entrepreneurship with higher the efficiency, non-farm business sector more efficient than the agricultural sector.
     The dissertation analyze the entrepreurship that impact on changes of rural economic structure and rural economic growth. reached the following views and conclusions: First, the entrepreneurial activities and the development of rural non-agricultural industries were uncoordinated. In recently years, the rural entrepreneurship talent’s coupled value has been negative, the coupling margin value were maintaining a high standard, the largest is -17.20% in 2003, -11.13% in 2004 and -5% in 2007, which is still very high. rural entrepreneurial talent can not meet with the development of the rural non-agricultural industries’needs. Second, Different forms of peasant entrepreneurship, its’economic growth effcts is different. The pulling effects of Private investors is obvious, while the individual entrepreneur is not obvious or even negative,the rural non-farm business activities and the emergence of division of rural labor made about 20% contribution to rural economic growth.
     Based on the existing research literature that on peasant entrepreneurship, to explore the concepts and theory that mining and use of traces and information of farmer’s entrepreneurial behavior. The viewpoint as following: First, the digging traces and information of entrepreneurial behavior will not only help the Government to fully grasp the business situation of countryside, but also to deepen the theory of peasant entrepreneurship research. Second, in order to promote peasant entrepreneurship, the status, that mining and use of traces and information of entrepreneurial behavior is not systems must be change to forming a full range of system that extended to the scope of before, during and after the business and so on..
     Finally, it explored the paths of entrepreneurship in four areas from building teams of entrepreneurial human capital, construction business information and technology services support platform, and analysised how to build system policy for the construction of entrepreneurial economy from aspects as the material investment policies, human capital investment policy and industrial development policy. On this basis, this chapter concludes what the author had done in the research, its’originality and put forward some policy implications.
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