交通安全不确定测度理论研究
摘要
世界正面临一个全球性的道路交通安全危机,道路交通安全问题已经成为关系人类生活可持续发展的重要问题。如何采取有效措施,预防和减少交通事故是世界各国普遍关注和重点研究的课题。道路交通安全管理技术是预测、预防、减少交通事故的重要手段,其核心是道路交通安全的评价、预测和决策技术。其中道路交通安全评价是交通安全管理的基础。现有的道路交通安全评价方法大多数基于经典集合理论和事故资料。由于经典集合理论的局限性和事故的随机性,使其评价结果不甚合理。道路交通安全本身是一个不确定的概念,即其内涵和外延是不确定的,因此很难确定安全与不安全的合理界限。道路交通安全系统正是这样一个无法进行精确描述的复杂系统。不确定理论为解决这类问题提供了三个十分有用的工具,即不确定函数、语言变量和不确定算子。不确定函数可以合理地解决“安全”与“不安全”概念之间的过渡,不必像经典数学那样硬性地规定一个绝对的界限；语言变量可以使交通安全评价结论以口语化词汇表达成为可能；不同的不确定算子反映不同的思维方式,如果采用多个不确定算子,就可以综合考虑多种不同的安全测度观点。因此,构造一个基于不确定逻辑的交通安全测度模型,用来测度道路交通安全是可行的,也是科学合理的。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,引入不确定理论,建立了一种更为合理和具有广泛适用性的道路交通安全测度模型。
本论文以构建不确定交通安全测度理论为目标,按照“获取测度指标→合成测度信息→对比分析结果→提炼恰当方法”的分析思路,引入不确定理论,重点研究了从数值型不确定交通安全测度、区间型不确定交通安全测度、语言型不确定交通安全测度和不确定语言型交通安全测度四个方面对不确定交通安全测度理论进行研究,针对不同情形给出相应方法。其主要研究内容是：
1)数值型不确定交通安全测度。本论文从指标权重完全未知、只有部分指标权重信息和指标权重以偏好信息形式给出三个方面对数值型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
2)区间型不确定交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重完全未知、只有部分指标权重信息和指标权重为数值三个方面对区间型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
3)语言型不确定交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重为数值、指标权重完全未知和指标权重为语言三个方面对语言型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
4)不确定语言型交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重完全未知、指标权重为数值和指标权重为区间数三个方面对不确定语言型交通安全测度进行研究。
本论文通过上述四个部分的研究,取得以下研究结论：以构建不确定交通安全测度理论为目标,按照“获取测度指标→合成测度信息→对比分析结果→提炼恰当方法’的分析思路,引入不确定理论,重点研究了从数值型不确定交通测度、区间型不确定安全测度、语言型不确定交通安全测度和不确定语言型交通安全测度四个方面对不确定交通安全测度理论进行研究,针对不同情形给出相应计算方法。
The world facing a global road safety crisis, road traffic safety has become a human life of important problems of sustainable development. How to take effective measures, prevent and reduce traffic accidents is widely concerned all over the world and key research topics. Road traffic safety management technology is the important means to predict, prevent and reduce the traffic accident. Its core is the road traffic safety evaluation, prediction and decision-making technology. Road traffic safety evaluation is the basis of traffic safety management in three afore-mentioned content. The existing road traffic safety evaluation methods have based on the classical set theory and the majority of the accident data. Because of the classical set theory limitations and accidents randomness, the evaluation results are not very reasonable. Road traffic safety is an uncertain concept, its connotation and extension are uncertain, so it is difficult to determine the safety and the unsafety of the reasonable limit. Road traffic safety system is such a cannot accurately describe the complex system. Uncertainty theory for solving this kind of problem provides three very useful tools, namely the uncertain function, linguistic variable and uncertain operator. Uncertain function can reasonably solve the " security " and " unsafe " between the concept of transition, not like a classical mathematical so rigidly prescribed an absolute limit; Linguistic variables can make traffic safety evaluation conclusion in colloquial vocabulary expression possible; Different uncertain operators reflect different ways of thinking, if using multiple uncertain operator, they can be considered a variety of safety' evaluation view. Therefore, it is feasible, and it also is the scientific and reasonable to construct a logic based on uncertain traffic safety evaluation model, which is used in the evaluation of road traffic safety. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, the road traffic safety measure model is established by introducing uncertainty theory, and make it more reasonable and more wide applicability in the road traffic safety measure.
This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method ". It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure. The main research content is:
1) real uncertain traffic safety measure. This part research content includes the real uncertain traffic safety measure with unknown index weights, the real uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the real uncertain traffic safety measure with index weight in the form of preference information given.
2) interval uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with real index weight.
3) language uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes language uncertain traffic safety measure with the real index weight, language uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight and language uncertain traffic safety measure with the language index weight.
4) uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure. This section research content includes uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the real index weight and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the interval index weight.
The paper studies from the four aspects to obtain the following conclusions:This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method" It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure.
本论文以构建不确定交通安全测度理论为目标,按照“获取测度指标→合成测度信息→对比分析结果→提炼恰当方法”的分析思路,引入不确定理论,重点研究了从数值型不确定交通安全测度、区间型不确定交通安全测度、语言型不确定交通安全测度和不确定语言型交通安全测度四个方面对不确定交通安全测度理论进行研究,针对不同情形给出相应方法。其主要研究内容是：
1)数值型不确定交通安全测度。本论文从指标权重完全未知、只有部分指标权重信息和指标权重以偏好信息形式给出三个方面对数值型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
2)区间型不确定交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重完全未知、只有部分指标权重信息和指标权重为数值三个方面对区间型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
3)语言型不确定交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重为数值、指标权重完全未知和指标权重为语言三个方面对语言型不确定交通安全测度进行研究。
4)不确定语言型交通安全测度。本部分从指标权重完全未知、指标权重为数值和指标权重为区间数三个方面对不确定语言型交通安全测度进行研究。
本论文通过上述四个部分的研究,取得以下研究结论：以构建不确定交通安全测度理论为目标,按照“获取测度指标→合成测度信息→对比分析结果→提炼恰当方法’的分析思路,引入不确定理论,重点研究了从数值型不确定交通测度、区间型不确定安全测度、语言型不确定交通安全测度和不确定语言型交通安全测度四个方面对不确定交通安全测度理论进行研究,针对不同情形给出相应计算方法。
The world facing a global road safety crisis, road traffic safety has become a human life of important problems of sustainable development. How to take effective measures, prevent and reduce traffic accidents is widely concerned all over the world and key research topics. Road traffic safety management technology is the important means to predict, prevent and reduce the traffic accident. Its core is the road traffic safety evaluation, prediction and decision-making technology. Road traffic safety evaluation is the basis of traffic safety management in three afore-mentioned content. The existing road traffic safety evaluation methods have based on the classical set theory and the majority of the accident data. Because of the classical set theory limitations and accidents randomness, the evaluation results are not very reasonable. Road traffic safety is an uncertain concept, its connotation and extension are uncertain, so it is difficult to determine the safety and the unsafety of the reasonable limit. Road traffic safety system is such a cannot accurately describe the complex system. Uncertainty theory for solving this kind of problem provides three very useful tools, namely the uncertain function, linguistic variable and uncertain operator. Uncertain function can reasonably solve the " security " and " unsafe " between the concept of transition, not like a classical mathematical so rigidly prescribed an absolute limit; Linguistic variables can make traffic safety evaluation conclusion in colloquial vocabulary expression possible; Different uncertain operators reflect different ways of thinking, if using multiple uncertain operator, they can be considered a variety of safety' evaluation view. Therefore, it is feasible, and it also is the scientific and reasonable to construct a logic based on uncertain traffic safety evaluation model, which is used in the evaluation of road traffic safety. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, the road traffic safety measure model is established by introducing uncertainty theory, and make it more reasonable and more wide applicability in the road traffic safety measure.
This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method ". It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure. The main research content is:
1) real uncertain traffic safety measure. This part research content includes the real uncertain traffic safety measure with unknown index weights, the real uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the real uncertain traffic safety measure with index weight in the form of preference information given.
2) interval uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with real index weight.
3) language uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes language uncertain traffic safety measure with the real index weight, language uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight and language uncertain traffic safety measure with the language index weight.
4) uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure. This section research content includes uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the real index weight and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the interval index weight.
The paper studies from the four aspects to obtain the following conclusions:This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method" It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure.
引文
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