三峡库区库岸滑坡涌浪灾害研究
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摘要
2011年三峡库区坝前水位首次蓄水达到175m,这标志着三峡水库已经达到预定的设计标准,开始正常的运营。三峡库区崩塌滑坡众多,据不完全统计,库区二、三期共监测崩塌滑坡3028处,在高水位及以后水库水位变动因素影响下,从宜昌到重庆600多公里的库岸滑坡活动性必然显著加强,潜在滑坡失稳概率大大增加,库区的地质灾害预警防治工作也需要进一步加强。滑坡涌浪作为水库库岸滑坡主要的次生灾害,造成人员伤亡、经济损失和环境破坏的例子屡见不鲜,如1961年中国柘溪水库的塘岩光大型滑坡、1963年意大利的瓦依昂水库滑坡、1985年三峡库区新滩滑坡等引起的涌浪均造成严重的后果。
滑坡涌浪灾害研究是一个复杂的岩土工程和水利工程问题,影响水库库岸滑坡涌浪的因素也是十分复杂,有滑坡规模、形状、入水速度、滑动面倾角、水深、河道宽度、河道横断面形状、河道弯曲程度等。目前国内外学者在定量评价滑坡涌浪时,大大简化了涌浪的影响因素,忽略了滑坡涌浪灾害的库岸地质模型,河道多为平直的矩形河道,这样计算的涌浪值与实际值有很大的差距。因此,将滑坡运动过程与产生涌浪及传播衰减过程结合起来,通过力学分析研究涉水滑坡运动速度计算模型,同时结合物理模型试验研究三峡库区滑坡涌浪的形成过程及传播规律,开展水库滑坡涌浪灾害的预测研究对三峡库区安全航运、制定涌浪灾害应急预案和紧急避险方案具有重要的理论和实践意义。目前全国已建大型水库约500座,白鹤滩、溪洛渡等大型在建水电站也即将投入运行,滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害同样严重威胁着这些水库的安全运营,滑坡涌浪分析计算理论及技术方法的研究成果可以为类似水库滑坡灾害的预警工作提供有效的技术支撑,具有重大的推广应用价值。
论文首先分析三峡库区新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡三个滑坡涌浪灾害实例的成因机理与涌浪特征,归纳总结滑坡涌浪灾害研究中典型的地质模型和河道模型。接着采用量纲分析方法得出了滑坡涌浪高度与不同影响因素的无量纲形式。然后统计分析三峡库区从库首到库尾一百多个潜在滑坡和古滑坡的地质资料,设计滑坡涌浪模型试验的正交试验方案和单因素试验方案。同时选取白水河滑坡河道为原型建立1：200的室内河道物理模型,研制了试验控制系统,合理布置试验量测系统,开展了滑坡涌浪三维物理模型试验。基于模型试验的量测数据和滑坡涌浪形成过程图片,结合波浪力学相关知识,分析了滑坡涌浪的形态特点,以国内外经典的Noda公式和潘家铮公式为基础,增加了滑坡规模函数和滑动面倾角函数,提出了三峡库区滑坡涌浪的经验公式。为了更准确滑坡涌浪计算中的速度参数,通过运动块体水阻力实验,分析了涉水滑坡运动过程中受到的水阻力大小,提出了涉水滑坡失稳后的速度计算模型。在此基础上,利用该滑坡速度计算模型分别对新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡进行了计算与反分析。在滑坡涌浪传播的理论分析方面,通过运用浅水波理论中的连续性方程和运动方程,借助分离变量法和线性渐进方法,对不同河道断面特征下滑坡涌浪急剧衰减阶段的涌浪特征进行了理论解析,最后结合缓慢衰减阶段考虑沿程水头损失的计算公式,以新滩滑坡为例对滑坡沿程传播浪进行了计算。通过上述围绕滑坡涌浪灾害的分析和研究,论文主要取得了以下一些成果和结论：
(1)三峡库区典型库岸滑坡涌浪灾害实例分析
通过对新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡这3个三峡库区涌浪灾害实例的地形地貌、滑体特征、成因机理、运动过程和涌浪特征等分析,归纳总结这三个滑坡实例代表的地质模型和河道模型。其中新滩滑坡代表的地质模型为堆积体沿基岩面滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为大然河道条件下滑坡体厚度接近于河道水深的宽广河道；千将坪滑坡代表的地质模型为堆积体后缘层间剪切前缘切层滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为河道蓄水条件下滑坡体厚度接近于河道水深；龚家方滑坡代表的地质模型为崩滑堆积体沿基岩面滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为河道蓄水条件下滑坡体厚度远小于河道水深。
(2)研究了滑坡涌浪三维物理模型试验装置设备和方法
通过对三峡库区已经开展勘探的潜在滑坡的地质资料进行统计分析,按照正交试验设计方法,制定了包含滑坡规模、入水速度、滑动面倾角、滑坡失事处最大水深、水下岸坡坡角和对岸岸坡坡角等滑坡涌浪影响因素的试验方案。选取三峡库区白水河滑坡的上下游河道地形为原型,在遵守几何相似、运动相似和动力相似条件的前提下,建立了1：200比例尺的河道物理模型,研究了包括滑动控制设备、载物滑车、吊车设备的实验控制系统,采用电容式波高仪、高速摄影仪组成了实验量测系统,开展了首浪、对岸爬坡浪和滑坡上下游传播浪的物理模犁试验。
(3)滑坡涌浪形态分析及最大首浪的定义
通过分析滑坡入水后不同时刻的涌浪形态变化图片,将滑坡涌浪的形成、发展和消散过程分为三个阶段：第一个阶段是滑块沿着滑动面进入水体阶段。滑坡以一定规模和速度入水,通过能量传递给周围受推挤的水体,表层水体受到冲击作用呈现为舌状形态向前运动,直接溅落到水面或拍打到对岸岸坡。第二个阶段是滑坡涌浪的形成阶段。随着滑块沿着滑面持续下滑入水,滑块尾部形成的空腔内外水位差越来越大,周围水体由于快速进入空腔相互碰撞产生巨大的水花团,很快在附近的地方跌落。同时由于能量的持续传递,滑块周围形成涌浪,并向四周传播,其中涌浪高度以滑块滑动方向上最大,我们定义此涌浪高度为最大首浪。第三个阶段是滑坡涌浪传播与哀减阶段。滑坡涌浪形成后在固有河道特征影响下传播到周围的水体,一个是由本岸传播到对岸,然后形成了爬坡浪；另一个是沿着河道传播,受河道宽度和干支流影响逐渐衰减。
(4)提出了适合三峡库区的滑坡涌浪计算模型
采用敏感性分析方法对滑坡最大首浪高度的各个影响因素进行分析,发现滑坡入水速度对滑坡最大首浪高度的影响最为敏感,其次依次为：滑体长度、宽度、滑面倾角、滑体厚度、水深。以国内外经典的Noda和潘家铮提出的滑坡涌浪公式为基础,基于试验量测数据,采用量纲分析方法和多元非线性回归分析方法,提出了包括首浪、对岸爬坡浪和沿程传播浪的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算模型。
(5)基于水阻力试验的涉水滑坡速度计算模型
为了确定滑坡涌浪计算中的速度参数,设计了运动块体水阻力实验,分析了不同面积和速度的块体迎水面受到的水阻力大小。应用条分法沿滑面方向和垂直滑面方向建立运动方程,采用浮重度计算涉水滑坡水下部分的重力,结合试验所得水阻力计算模型,得到涉水滑坡失稳后的速度计算模型。
(6)典型滑坡涌浪灾害的计算与反分析
典型滑坡涌浪灾害的计算与反分析要兼顾到滑坡速度、滑坡入江体积、滑坡发生处对岸的爬坡浪高度,因计算方法只是实际滑坡涌浪问题的一种求解手段,不可能用一个折减系数就能反应实际的动摩擦抗剪强度参数,因此,折减系数应该在一定范围内取值。
以条分法的速度计算方法和依据物理模型试验修正后的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算公式为计算依据,我们计算了新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡三峡库区典型滑坡灾害实例的最大首浪、对岸爬坡浪和沿程传播浪。结合实地调查资料可以看出,当A在0.8-0.95之间取值时,滑坡速度、对岸爬坡浪高度和沿程传播浪的计算结果是基本合理的,论文依据物理模型试验所修正的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算公式可以为三峡库区滑坡涌浪的预警预报提供较为可靠的技术支撑。
在滑坡速度及涌浪计算时,除了考虑折减系数外,还应该注意考虑具体滑坡的稳定性及变形情况,滑面的陡缓与起伏程度、滑坡重心离库水位的高低程度等因素。
(7)考虑河道横断面形状系数的滑坡涌浪传播研究
结合水动力学与流体力学的经典圣维南方程,对滑坡涌浪的河道横断面形状进行函数定义,推导出了包含河道形状系数的连续性方程和运动方程。
依据物理模型试验得出滑坡沿程传播浪衰减过程呈先急剧后缓慢的变化规律,在急剧衰减阶段采用线性逼近摄动法对滑坡涌浪的连续性和运动方程进行零阶和一阶线性化,利用分离变量法得出沿程传播浪急剧衰减阶段的解析表达式。由滑坡沿程传播浪急剧衰减阶段的理论解析公式可知,在急剧衰减阶段,V形河道特征下滑坡涌浪衰减最快,U形河道其次,矩形河道衰减最慢。
结合缓慢衰减阶段考虑沿程水头损失的计算公式,以新滩滑坡为例对滑坡沿程传播浪进行了计算分析,并将计算结果和实验公式进行对比分析,认为本文提出的考虑河道形状系数的急剧衰减理论公式适用于比较狭窄的河道。
The water level in Three Gorges Reservoir was firstly reached to175m in2011, which indicated that the operation of Reservoir is reached to the designed criterion. Landslides are largely distributed in Three Gorges Reservoir. According to the incomplete statistics, totally3028landslides are monitored in the Second and Third Stage of the Reservoir operation. Influenced by the fluctuation of the water level and high water pressure, many landslides become obviously active along the600miles river bank from Yichang to Chongqing, and old and potential landslides failure probabilities are greatly increased. Landslide generated waves is the most severe hazard chain of landslides, which can pose serious threat to the safety of navigation, docks, structures and residents. The occurrence of all such events as Tangyanguang landslide in Zhexi reservoir in1961, Italy Vajont landslide in1963and Xintan landslide in Three Goreges in1985roused severe consequence for the wave hazard.
The research of landslide surge is a complicated geotechnical engineering and hydraulic engineering problems, also the factor of reservoir bank landslide surge complex, including landslide size,shape,speed of sliding into the water, dipping angle of the slide surface,water depth, width of river course,channel cross-sectional shape,river bend degree and so on.At present, domestic and foreign scholars simplified the factors influencing landslide surge and the shape of river course, also ignored the geological model of reservoir bank when they make assessment of landslide surge in the quantitative, thus there's a large gap between the actual value and the calculation value.So it makes sense to carry out research in the field of landslide surge prediction in reservior area, which will contribute to the navigation safety and strategies planing of disaster reducing and avoiding. The research needs the combination of landslide motion process, producing surge and propagation attenuation process, the study of wading landslide motion speed calculation model, Combination with the physical model test and study of landslide surge in the Three Gorges reservoir formation and propagation.
There are500large built reserviors in china. Some like baihetan and xiluodu which building are going to be used, their safety of navigation are also threatened by the landslide and surge. The study result of landslide surge theoretical calculation and technology method which can provide some effective technical support for some large resevoirs has significiant application value.
Taking Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide as examples, this paper summarized geological model and river channel model for typical landslide-surge disaster thoroughly analysising their causes and surge features. Then we captured nondimensional forms of landslide surge height by using dimensional analysis method. Combined with the existing geological data of potential landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the orthogonal text program and single-factor test program have been designed for landslide-surge experiment.Based on the1:200scale physical river channel model of Baishuihe landslide, precisely controling3D landslide-surge experiment have been conducted. The landslide surge calculation model considering landslide scale and sliding surface angle is presented in the paper after comparing the results got from Noda and Panjiazheng formula. Underwater block resistant force experiments have been done to calculate the landslide speed and hydraulic resistance. Incorporated this model into the study of Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide, the results are more reasonable. In analytical solutions for landslide propagation wave along the channel, we deduced the continuity equation and motion equation considering channel corss-section shape, then with the help of separation variable method and linear approximation, we obtain the attenuation law of surge considering different water channel shape in sharp attenuation stage. At last. Xintan landslide is taken as an example to calculate landslide propagation waves by combing the calculation formula considering frictional head loss in slow attenuation stage. Through the system study of landslide surge hazard, some research conclusions have been made in this paper as follow:
(1) Typical landslide surge analysis in the Three Gorges Reservoir
Taking Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide as examples, by analyzing their topography and geomorphology, genetic mechanism, motion process and surge feautres, we summarized geological model and river channel model of these three landslide surge hazaed examples. Xintan landslide stands for the geological model which landslide slides along the bed rock, and the channel model which landslide thickness is close to the river water depth under the condition of natural river. Qianjiangping landslide stands for the geological model which landslide has the characteristics of interlaminar shear in back and shear layers in front, and the channel model which landslide thickness is close to the river water depth under impoundment condition. Gongjiafang landslide stands for the geological model which slumping mass slides along the bed rock, and the channel model which landslide thickness is far less than the river water depth under impoundment condition.
(2) Landslide surge physical model experiment equpiment and method are studied
Through the statistical analysis of geological data about the potential landslides in TGRA, adopting the orthogonal experimental design method, we formulate the experiment scheme; it include landslide scale, speed entering into the water, sliding plane obliquity, water depth, and slope angle. According to the experiment program, taking the channel of Baishuihe landslide in TGRA as prototype, Based on the premise of geometric similar,dynamic similar, movement similar, we establishe the river physical model in map scale1:200, and thus develop experimental control system including the sliding control equipment, cargo block and crane equipment, then adopt capacitance wave probe, high-speed camera and other measuring instruments, forming experimental measurement system, at last we develope landslide surge three-dimensional physical model experiment.
(3) morphological analysis of landslide surge and definition of the largest leading wave
Through analyzing morphological changes of landslide surge when landslide entering into the water, the production process of landslide surge can be divided into three stages:the first stage is landslide entering into water stage. When landslide slide into the water along the sliding surface, water attaining surface pushes the water, making the the upper water body in semifloret shape jump to the water surface or the other side of the bank slope. The second stage is landslide surge formation stage. When landslide continuously downslide, the cavity forming in its tail is bigger and bigger, the water around the cavity quickly enter into the empty cavity and produce a great splash due to collisions, splash regiment fall in the near place very soon. At the same time, the energy which landslide carry continuously passed to the surrounding water, then forming surge around them. Among them the surge height is the biggest in landslide sliding direction, we define this is the largest leading wave. The third stage is surge propagation and attenuation stage. When landsldie surge propagate to the surrounding area, its height gradually decay. On one hand, it propagate to the opposite bank, then forming the climbing wave; On the other hand, it propagate along the river channel, and produce climbing waves along the bank.
(4) Landslide surge calculation model in TGRA is put forward
Based on the classical landslide surge formulas proposed by Noda and Pan Jiazheng, by analyzing the measured data, using the dimensional analysis method and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis method, we deduced the landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA, including the largest leading wave height, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel. Besides, the sensitivity analysis of the largest leading wave's influencing factors were performed, and it is included that landslide speed is most sensitive to the leading wave height, the sensitivity order of other factors is landslide length,landslide width, sliding plane obliquity, landslide thickness and water depth.
(5) Speed model of fording landslide baesd on water resistance experiment
The experiment system of moving block's resistance in water is designed. We select area of and speed as the influencing factors to develop the pressure head experiment. Through the data analysis, we establish the the water resistance model of block's attaining surface in water. Adopting slice method, we establish motion equation along the sliding direction and the direction perpendicular to the sliding surface, combing with the water resistance model, we obtain the speed model of fording landslide.
(6) Calculation and back analysis of typical landslide surge
Calculation and back analysis to the typical landslide surge should consider landslide speed, landslide volume entering into the river and the opposite bank climbing wave. Due to the calculation method is one approach of sloving practical landslide surge problem, we can not just use one singule reduction factor, because it can't react the kinetic frictional shear strength parameters. Therefore, reduction factor should be within a certain range.
According to the speed model based on slice method and the landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA based on physical model experiment, we calcluate the largest leading wave, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel of Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Combining with the field survey data, we obtain that when the kinetic frictional shear strength parameter's value is between0.8-0.95, the calculation results of landslide velocity, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel is basically reasonable. Landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA based on physical model experiment can provide some scientific basis for prediction and early warning of landslide surge in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
When calculating landslide speed and its surge, in addition to consider the reduction factor, we also should pay attention to the stability and deformation of landslide, the steepness of sliding surface, The height between landslide center and water level, the distribution of the groundwater level, channel depth, etal..
(7) Research on propagation height of landslide surge considering channel cross-section shape coefficient
Combining the Saint-Venant equations in hydrodynamics and Fluid mechanics, we define the function of landslide's river channel cross sectional shape, deduce the continuity equation and movement equation including channel shape coefficient.
Then, the decay rule of surge in sharp attenuation stage is gained by separation variable method.
Based on physical model experiment, we concluded that the propagation wave along the channel haves a rule which first sharpe decay then slow deacy. In a sharp attenuation stage, by adopting the method of linear approximation perturbation, landslide surge equation including continuity equation and motion equation are inearized for the zero order and first order. At the same time,we acquired the analytic expression of propagation wave along the channel in steep attenuation phase using the method of separation of variables.
From the decay rule of surge in sharp attenuation stage, we know landslide surge attenuation under V-shaped channel cross-section is the fastest, secondly, U-shaped channel, and the last is rectangular channel cross-section.
Combing the calculation formula considering frictional head loss in slow attenuation stage, Xintan landslide is taken as an example to calculate landslide propagation waves. By analyzing the calculated results of theoretical formula and experimental formula, we think that the theoretical formula considering channel shape coefficient is suitable for narrow channel.
滑坡涌浪灾害研究是一个复杂的岩土工程和水利工程问题,影响水库库岸滑坡涌浪的因素也是十分复杂,有滑坡规模、形状、入水速度、滑动面倾角、水深、河道宽度、河道横断面形状、河道弯曲程度等。目前国内外学者在定量评价滑坡涌浪时,大大简化了涌浪的影响因素,忽略了滑坡涌浪灾害的库岸地质模型,河道多为平直的矩形河道,这样计算的涌浪值与实际值有很大的差距。因此,将滑坡运动过程与产生涌浪及传播衰减过程结合起来,通过力学分析研究涉水滑坡运动速度计算模型,同时结合物理模型试验研究三峡库区滑坡涌浪的形成过程及传播规律,开展水库滑坡涌浪灾害的预测研究对三峡库区安全航运、制定涌浪灾害应急预案和紧急避险方案具有重要的理论和实践意义。目前全国已建大型水库约500座,白鹤滩、溪洛渡等大型在建水电站也即将投入运行,滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害同样严重威胁着这些水库的安全运营,滑坡涌浪分析计算理论及技术方法的研究成果可以为类似水库滑坡灾害的预警工作提供有效的技术支撑,具有重大的推广应用价值。
论文首先分析三峡库区新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡三个滑坡涌浪灾害实例的成因机理与涌浪特征,归纳总结滑坡涌浪灾害研究中典型的地质模型和河道模型。接着采用量纲分析方法得出了滑坡涌浪高度与不同影响因素的无量纲形式。然后统计分析三峡库区从库首到库尾一百多个潜在滑坡和古滑坡的地质资料,设计滑坡涌浪模型试验的正交试验方案和单因素试验方案。同时选取白水河滑坡河道为原型建立1：200的室内河道物理模型,研制了试验控制系统,合理布置试验量测系统,开展了滑坡涌浪三维物理模型试验。基于模型试验的量测数据和滑坡涌浪形成过程图片,结合波浪力学相关知识,分析了滑坡涌浪的形态特点,以国内外经典的Noda公式和潘家铮公式为基础,增加了滑坡规模函数和滑动面倾角函数,提出了三峡库区滑坡涌浪的经验公式。为了更准确滑坡涌浪计算中的速度参数,通过运动块体水阻力实验,分析了涉水滑坡运动过程中受到的水阻力大小,提出了涉水滑坡失稳后的速度计算模型。在此基础上,利用该滑坡速度计算模型分别对新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡进行了计算与反分析。在滑坡涌浪传播的理论分析方面,通过运用浅水波理论中的连续性方程和运动方程,借助分离变量法和线性渐进方法,对不同河道断面特征下滑坡涌浪急剧衰减阶段的涌浪特征进行了理论解析,最后结合缓慢衰减阶段考虑沿程水头损失的计算公式,以新滩滑坡为例对滑坡沿程传播浪进行了计算。通过上述围绕滑坡涌浪灾害的分析和研究,论文主要取得了以下一些成果和结论：
(1)三峡库区典型库岸滑坡涌浪灾害实例分析
通过对新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡这3个三峡库区涌浪灾害实例的地形地貌、滑体特征、成因机理、运动过程和涌浪特征等分析,归纳总结这三个滑坡实例代表的地质模型和河道模型。其中新滩滑坡代表的地质模型为堆积体沿基岩面滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为大然河道条件下滑坡体厚度接近于河道水深的宽广河道；千将坪滑坡代表的地质模型为堆积体后缘层间剪切前缘切层滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为河道蓄水条件下滑坡体厚度接近于河道水深；龚家方滑坡代表的地质模型为崩滑堆积体沿基岩面滑动的滑坡,代表的河道模型为河道蓄水条件下滑坡体厚度远小于河道水深。
(2)研究了滑坡涌浪三维物理模型试验装置设备和方法
通过对三峡库区已经开展勘探的潜在滑坡的地质资料进行统计分析,按照正交试验设计方法,制定了包含滑坡规模、入水速度、滑动面倾角、滑坡失事处最大水深、水下岸坡坡角和对岸岸坡坡角等滑坡涌浪影响因素的试验方案。选取三峡库区白水河滑坡的上下游河道地形为原型,在遵守几何相似、运动相似和动力相似条件的前提下,建立了1：200比例尺的河道物理模型,研究了包括滑动控制设备、载物滑车、吊车设备的实验控制系统,采用电容式波高仪、高速摄影仪组成了实验量测系统,开展了首浪、对岸爬坡浪和滑坡上下游传播浪的物理模犁试验。
(3)滑坡涌浪形态分析及最大首浪的定义
通过分析滑坡入水后不同时刻的涌浪形态变化图片,将滑坡涌浪的形成、发展和消散过程分为三个阶段：第一个阶段是滑块沿着滑动面进入水体阶段。滑坡以一定规模和速度入水,通过能量传递给周围受推挤的水体,表层水体受到冲击作用呈现为舌状形态向前运动,直接溅落到水面或拍打到对岸岸坡。第二个阶段是滑坡涌浪的形成阶段。随着滑块沿着滑面持续下滑入水,滑块尾部形成的空腔内外水位差越来越大,周围水体由于快速进入空腔相互碰撞产生巨大的水花团,很快在附近的地方跌落。同时由于能量的持续传递,滑块周围形成涌浪,并向四周传播,其中涌浪高度以滑块滑动方向上最大,我们定义此涌浪高度为最大首浪。第三个阶段是滑坡涌浪传播与哀减阶段。滑坡涌浪形成后在固有河道特征影响下传播到周围的水体,一个是由本岸传播到对岸,然后形成了爬坡浪；另一个是沿着河道传播,受河道宽度和干支流影响逐渐衰减。
(4)提出了适合三峡库区的滑坡涌浪计算模型
采用敏感性分析方法对滑坡最大首浪高度的各个影响因素进行分析,发现滑坡入水速度对滑坡最大首浪高度的影响最为敏感,其次依次为：滑体长度、宽度、滑面倾角、滑体厚度、水深。以国内外经典的Noda和潘家铮提出的滑坡涌浪公式为基础,基于试验量测数据,采用量纲分析方法和多元非线性回归分析方法,提出了包括首浪、对岸爬坡浪和沿程传播浪的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算模型。
(5)基于水阻力试验的涉水滑坡速度计算模型
为了确定滑坡涌浪计算中的速度参数,设计了运动块体水阻力实验,分析了不同面积和速度的块体迎水面受到的水阻力大小。应用条分法沿滑面方向和垂直滑面方向建立运动方程,采用浮重度计算涉水滑坡水下部分的重力,结合试验所得水阻力计算模型,得到涉水滑坡失稳后的速度计算模型。
(6)典型滑坡涌浪灾害的计算与反分析
典型滑坡涌浪灾害的计算与反分析要兼顾到滑坡速度、滑坡入江体积、滑坡发生处对岸的爬坡浪高度,因计算方法只是实际滑坡涌浪问题的一种求解手段,不可能用一个折减系数就能反应实际的动摩擦抗剪强度参数,因此,折减系数应该在一定范围内取值。
以条分法的速度计算方法和依据物理模型试验修正后的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算公式为计算依据,我们计算了新滩滑坡、千将坪滑坡和龚家方滑坡三峡库区典型滑坡灾害实例的最大首浪、对岸爬坡浪和沿程传播浪。结合实地调查资料可以看出,当A在0.8-0.95之间取值时,滑坡速度、对岸爬坡浪高度和沿程传播浪的计算结果是基本合理的,论文依据物理模型试验所修正的三峡库区滑坡涌浪计算公式可以为三峡库区滑坡涌浪的预警预报提供较为可靠的技术支撑。
在滑坡速度及涌浪计算时,除了考虑折减系数外,还应该注意考虑具体滑坡的稳定性及变形情况,滑面的陡缓与起伏程度、滑坡重心离库水位的高低程度等因素。
(7)考虑河道横断面形状系数的滑坡涌浪传播研究
结合水动力学与流体力学的经典圣维南方程,对滑坡涌浪的河道横断面形状进行函数定义,推导出了包含河道形状系数的连续性方程和运动方程。
依据物理模型试验得出滑坡沿程传播浪衰减过程呈先急剧后缓慢的变化规律,在急剧衰减阶段采用线性逼近摄动法对滑坡涌浪的连续性和运动方程进行零阶和一阶线性化,利用分离变量法得出沿程传播浪急剧衰减阶段的解析表达式。由滑坡沿程传播浪急剧衰减阶段的理论解析公式可知,在急剧衰减阶段,V形河道特征下滑坡涌浪衰减最快,U形河道其次,矩形河道衰减最慢。
结合缓慢衰减阶段考虑沿程水头损失的计算公式,以新滩滑坡为例对滑坡沿程传播浪进行了计算分析,并将计算结果和实验公式进行对比分析,认为本文提出的考虑河道形状系数的急剧衰减理论公式适用于比较狭窄的河道。
The water level in Three Gorges Reservoir was firstly reached to175m in2011, which indicated that the operation of Reservoir is reached to the designed criterion. Landslides are largely distributed in Three Gorges Reservoir. According to the incomplete statistics, totally3028landslides are monitored in the Second and Third Stage of the Reservoir operation. Influenced by the fluctuation of the water level and high water pressure, many landslides become obviously active along the600miles river bank from Yichang to Chongqing, and old and potential landslides failure probabilities are greatly increased. Landslide generated waves is the most severe hazard chain of landslides, which can pose serious threat to the safety of navigation, docks, structures and residents. The occurrence of all such events as Tangyanguang landslide in Zhexi reservoir in1961, Italy Vajont landslide in1963and Xintan landslide in Three Goreges in1985roused severe consequence for the wave hazard.
The research of landslide surge is a complicated geotechnical engineering and hydraulic engineering problems, also the factor of reservoir bank landslide surge complex, including landslide size,shape,speed of sliding into the water, dipping angle of the slide surface,water depth, width of river course,channel cross-sectional shape,river bend degree and so on.At present, domestic and foreign scholars simplified the factors influencing landslide surge and the shape of river course, also ignored the geological model of reservoir bank when they make assessment of landslide surge in the quantitative, thus there's a large gap between the actual value and the calculation value.So it makes sense to carry out research in the field of landslide surge prediction in reservior area, which will contribute to the navigation safety and strategies planing of disaster reducing and avoiding. The research needs the combination of landslide motion process, producing surge and propagation attenuation process, the study of wading landslide motion speed calculation model, Combination with the physical model test and study of landslide surge in the Three Gorges reservoir formation and propagation.
There are500large built reserviors in china. Some like baihetan and xiluodu which building are going to be used, their safety of navigation are also threatened by the landslide and surge. The study result of landslide surge theoretical calculation and technology method which can provide some effective technical support for some large resevoirs has significiant application value.
Taking Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide as examples, this paper summarized geological model and river channel model for typical landslide-surge disaster thoroughly analysising their causes and surge features. Then we captured nondimensional forms of landslide surge height by using dimensional analysis method. Combined with the existing geological data of potential landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the orthogonal text program and single-factor test program have been designed for landslide-surge experiment.Based on the1:200scale physical river channel model of Baishuihe landslide, precisely controling3D landslide-surge experiment have been conducted. The landslide surge calculation model considering landslide scale and sliding surface angle is presented in the paper after comparing the results got from Noda and Panjiazheng formula. Underwater block resistant force experiments have been done to calculate the landslide speed and hydraulic resistance. Incorporated this model into the study of Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide, the results are more reasonable. In analytical solutions for landslide propagation wave along the channel, we deduced the continuity equation and motion equation considering channel corss-section shape, then with the help of separation variable method and linear approximation, we obtain the attenuation law of surge considering different water channel shape in sharp attenuation stage. At last. Xintan landslide is taken as an example to calculate landslide propagation waves by combing the calculation formula considering frictional head loss in slow attenuation stage. Through the system study of landslide surge hazard, some research conclusions have been made in this paper as follow:
(1) Typical landslide surge analysis in the Three Gorges Reservoir
Taking Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide as examples, by analyzing their topography and geomorphology, genetic mechanism, motion process and surge feautres, we summarized geological model and river channel model of these three landslide surge hazaed examples. Xintan landslide stands for the geological model which landslide slides along the bed rock, and the channel model which landslide thickness is close to the river water depth under the condition of natural river. Qianjiangping landslide stands for the geological model which landslide has the characteristics of interlaminar shear in back and shear layers in front, and the channel model which landslide thickness is close to the river water depth under impoundment condition. Gongjiafang landslide stands for the geological model which slumping mass slides along the bed rock, and the channel model which landslide thickness is far less than the river water depth under impoundment condition.
(2) Landslide surge physical model experiment equpiment and method are studied
Through the statistical analysis of geological data about the potential landslides in TGRA, adopting the orthogonal experimental design method, we formulate the experiment scheme; it include landslide scale, speed entering into the water, sliding plane obliquity, water depth, and slope angle. According to the experiment program, taking the channel of Baishuihe landslide in TGRA as prototype, Based on the premise of geometric similar,dynamic similar, movement similar, we establishe the river physical model in map scale1:200, and thus develop experimental control system including the sliding control equipment, cargo block and crane equipment, then adopt capacitance wave probe, high-speed camera and other measuring instruments, forming experimental measurement system, at last we develope landslide surge three-dimensional physical model experiment.
(3) morphological analysis of landslide surge and definition of the largest leading wave
Through analyzing morphological changes of landslide surge when landslide entering into the water, the production process of landslide surge can be divided into three stages:the first stage is landslide entering into water stage. When landslide slide into the water along the sliding surface, water attaining surface pushes the water, making the the upper water body in semifloret shape jump to the water surface or the other side of the bank slope. The second stage is landslide surge formation stage. When landslide continuously downslide, the cavity forming in its tail is bigger and bigger, the water around the cavity quickly enter into the empty cavity and produce a great splash due to collisions, splash regiment fall in the near place very soon. At the same time, the energy which landslide carry continuously passed to the surrounding water, then forming surge around them. Among them the surge height is the biggest in landslide sliding direction, we define this is the largest leading wave. The third stage is surge propagation and attenuation stage. When landsldie surge propagate to the surrounding area, its height gradually decay. On one hand, it propagate to the opposite bank, then forming the climbing wave; On the other hand, it propagate along the river channel, and produce climbing waves along the bank.
(4) Landslide surge calculation model in TGRA is put forward
Based on the classical landslide surge formulas proposed by Noda and Pan Jiazheng, by analyzing the measured data, using the dimensional analysis method and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis method, we deduced the landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA, including the largest leading wave height, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel. Besides, the sensitivity analysis of the largest leading wave's influencing factors were performed, and it is included that landslide speed is most sensitive to the leading wave height, the sensitivity order of other factors is landslide length,landslide width, sliding plane obliquity, landslide thickness and water depth.
(5) Speed model of fording landslide baesd on water resistance experiment
The experiment system of moving block's resistance in water is designed. We select area of and speed as the influencing factors to develop the pressure head experiment. Through the data analysis, we establish the the water resistance model of block's attaining surface in water. Adopting slice method, we establish motion equation along the sliding direction and the direction perpendicular to the sliding surface, combing with the water resistance model, we obtain the speed model of fording landslide.
(6) Calculation and back analysis of typical landslide surge
Calculation and back analysis to the typical landslide surge should consider landslide speed, landslide volume entering into the river and the opposite bank climbing wave. Due to the calculation method is one approach of sloving practical landslide surge problem, we can not just use one singule reduction factor, because it can't react the kinetic frictional shear strength parameters. Therefore, reduction factor should be within a certain range.
According to the speed model based on slice method and the landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA based on physical model experiment, we calcluate the largest leading wave, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel of Xintan landslide, Qianjiangping landslide and Gongjiafang landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Combining with the field survey data, we obtain that when the kinetic frictional shear strength parameter's value is between0.8-0.95, the calculation results of landslide velocity, the opposite bank climbing wave and the propagation wave along the channel is basically reasonable. Landslide surge calculation formulas in TGRA based on physical model experiment can provide some scientific basis for prediction and early warning of landslide surge in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
When calculating landslide speed and its surge, in addition to consider the reduction factor, we also should pay attention to the stability and deformation of landslide, the steepness of sliding surface, The height between landslide center and water level, the distribution of the groundwater level, channel depth, etal..
(7) Research on propagation height of landslide surge considering channel cross-section shape coefficient
Combining the Saint-Venant equations in hydrodynamics and Fluid mechanics, we define the function of landslide's river channel cross sectional shape, deduce the continuity equation and movement equation including channel shape coefficient.
Then, the decay rule of surge in sharp attenuation stage is gained by separation variable method.
Based on physical model experiment, we concluded that the propagation wave along the channel haves a rule which first sharpe decay then slow deacy. In a sharp attenuation stage, by adopting the method of linear approximation perturbation, landslide surge equation including continuity equation and motion equation are inearized for the zero order and first order. At the same time,we acquired the analytic expression of propagation wave along the channel in steep attenuation phase using the method of separation of variables.
From the decay rule of surge in sharp attenuation stage, we know landslide surge attenuation under V-shaped channel cross-section is the fastest, secondly, U-shaped channel, and the last is rectangular channel cross-section.
Combing the calculation formula considering frictional head loss in slow attenuation stage, Xintan landslide is taken as an example to calculate landslide propagation waves. By analyzing the calculated results of theoretical formula and experimental formula, we think that the theoretical formula considering channel shape coefficient is suitable for narrow channel.
引文
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