招商引资项目评估模型研究
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摘要
随着经济技术开发区的蓬勃发展,招商引资在开发区经济建设过程中所做出的贡献越来越大,为了保障经济技术开发区招商引资的成功进行,减少失败引资所带来的浪费和污染,各国不约而同的采取对招商项目进行评价的方法,提高招商项目入驻的门槛条件,通过审查招商项目的各项指标条件来考虑是否予以引进。为了解决招商引资过程中的项目评估问题,降低招商引资的风险性,更好的发挥外来企业对经济技术开发区经济的带动作用,本文研究并建立招商引资项目评估模型,有效保障招商引资的科学性和合理性,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本研究以建立招商项目评估模型为研究目标,解决了如下一些问题：建立了项目评估的指标体系；分析了各个指标在项目评估中所起到作用；建立了三个招商引资项目评估模型。论文的主要研究成果如下：
首先,建立了招商引资项目评估的指标体系。在充分调研和文献分析的基础上,通过设计调查文件,专家作答,统计分析数据,来对招商项目评估的指标进行遴选,最终形成了招商项目评估的指标体系。调查表明,经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、企业评级这四种指标涵盖了项目评估指标的所有内容,属于一级指标,投资额、就业效果、可再生资源利用率、是否上市公司等是分别隶属于上四个一级指标,它们属于二级指标。
其次,详细分析了指标体系中各指标在招商评估中所起到的作用。通过实际考察,得出各指标的计算方法,并通过专家打分法,根据各指标性能对项目评估结果的影响程度,利用层次分析法得出了指标的权重,量化了招商引资项目评价过程,使得评价过程数字化,有利于项目评估的进行,使得招商决策具有了依据性。
最后,构建了招商项目评估的模型。根据研究的深入,本研究共得出了三个模型。首先,建立了基于群决策的项目评估模型,群决策是一种群体决策模型,能够最大化吸收个人的意见,减少单个决策者在决策过程中由于主观因素的原因而带来的误差,使得决策过程能体现出群体智慧的优越性,减低招商引资的风险。其次,基于群决策的评估模型是利用证据理论来进行合成,证据理论的合成结果是证据的积累,能表示大部分人的支持意向,而忽略少部分的不同意见,这种特点使得在对项目进行评估时,容易忽略掉少数几个指标的缺陷,对决策产生不利影响,因此我们建立了基于云理论的招商项目评估模型,云理论能够很好的处理定性数据与定量概念之间的相互转换,且在合成过程中,该模型对待评价项目的缺陷指标值特别敏感,单个指标的不足将会在合成结果中体现出来,从而能更好的对项目进行评估,具有一定的优越性。既然基于群决策的评估模型和基于云理论的模型各具有不同的特点,那么他们对相同项目的评价就有可能得到不相同的排序结果,因此,我们采用VIKOR算法来对待评价项目进行分等级验证,从而有效的解释了基于群决策的模型和基于云理论模型在排序结果上的不一致性。最后,我们建立了基于证据理论和云理论的综合模型,该模型将评价指标分为门槛性指标和非门槛性指标,使用云理论对门槛性指标进行合成,而采用证据理论对非门槛性指标进行合成,该模型有效的利用了证据理论和云理论在合成过称中的优点,而削减了这两者的局限性,从而使得决策结果更加的科学合理。这三种模型从不同的角度出发,改善了招商引资过程中的决策精度,通过对待遴选的项目进行评估,从而选出最优秀的项目进行引进,为成功招商提供了依据,减低了盲目招商所带来的风险。
With the rapid growth of economic and technological development zones, attracting foreign investment was contributing more and more to the development process of development zone. In order to guarantee the success of the investment work for the development zone, and reduce the failure which causes waste and pollution, countries in the whole world carry out project evaluation, and raise the threshold which forbids the unqualified project to get in. In order to solve the problem which arises in the process of investment project evaluation and reduce the risk of decision making, building a scientific model to evaluate the project has important theoretical and practical significance.
Our research aims at establishing a model for the project evaluation, we solved the following problems, the project evaluation index system, establish models for the investment project evaluation. The research results of this thesis are as follows:
Firstly, we establish the investment project evaluation index system. Based on the investigation and literature of project evaluation, we design the inquiry questionnaire first, and then, the experts answer the questions, evaluate the data with structure equation model, and finally identify the important indexes for project evaluation, An index system was established. The result shows:The first category is economic benefit, social benefit, ecological benefit and enterprise rating. The second category is investment amount and employment effects and so on.
Secondly, a detailed analysis was given which explains the role of the index plays in the process of evaluation. Through the investigation, we get the calculation method of the index, and give the weight to indicate the importance of the index in evaluating a project. All this makes the process of investment evaluation more calculable, and more thinkable.
Finally, the model for investment projects was constructed in the research step by step. There are three models. The first one is based on group decision making. Group decision making is a decision model which can maximize personal opinions, and reduce the individual's subjective factors, the group decision making makes the decision process more intelligent and less risky. Then, we find that, the group decision based on evidence theory focuses on the accumulation of evidence, and ignores the flaw of the minority of indexes, the decision maker may be mislead by this evaluation result. In order to overcome the problem, we put out the second model. The second model is based on cloud theory, cloud theory is dealing well with the qualitative and quantitative data, and is a conversion method between the two. This model has the advantage that it concerned the defect index the most, the evaluation result will be affected by the flaw. As there are different, so we use VIKOR method to verify the discordance, the result shows that both models are following the classification of alternative project. So as to combine the advantage of the two models, we build our third model, it bases on evidence theory and cloud theory, and the indexes are divided into key index and un-key index. Evidence theory is used for un-key index, and cloud theory is used for key index. The composite model can make a much more reasonable result, and help the decision maker to get the right decision. From different views, we build the three models, which can improve the quality of investment. Through evaluating the projects, we can select the most outstanding projects. It makes basis for the successful promotion and reduce the risk of investment.
本研究以建立招商项目评估模型为研究目标,解决了如下一些问题：建立了项目评估的指标体系；分析了各个指标在项目评估中所起到作用；建立了三个招商引资项目评估模型。论文的主要研究成果如下：
首先,建立了招商引资项目评估的指标体系。在充分调研和文献分析的基础上,通过设计调查文件,专家作答,统计分析数据,来对招商项目评估的指标进行遴选,最终形成了招商项目评估的指标体系。调查表明,经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、企业评级这四种指标涵盖了项目评估指标的所有内容,属于一级指标,投资额、就业效果、可再生资源利用率、是否上市公司等是分别隶属于上四个一级指标,它们属于二级指标。
其次,详细分析了指标体系中各指标在招商评估中所起到的作用。通过实际考察,得出各指标的计算方法,并通过专家打分法,根据各指标性能对项目评估结果的影响程度,利用层次分析法得出了指标的权重,量化了招商引资项目评价过程,使得评价过程数字化,有利于项目评估的进行,使得招商决策具有了依据性。
最后,构建了招商项目评估的模型。根据研究的深入,本研究共得出了三个模型。首先,建立了基于群决策的项目评估模型,群决策是一种群体决策模型,能够最大化吸收个人的意见,减少单个决策者在决策过程中由于主观因素的原因而带来的误差,使得决策过程能体现出群体智慧的优越性,减低招商引资的风险。其次,基于群决策的评估模型是利用证据理论来进行合成,证据理论的合成结果是证据的积累,能表示大部分人的支持意向,而忽略少部分的不同意见,这种特点使得在对项目进行评估时,容易忽略掉少数几个指标的缺陷,对决策产生不利影响,因此我们建立了基于云理论的招商项目评估模型,云理论能够很好的处理定性数据与定量概念之间的相互转换,且在合成过程中,该模型对待评价项目的缺陷指标值特别敏感,单个指标的不足将会在合成结果中体现出来,从而能更好的对项目进行评估,具有一定的优越性。既然基于群决策的评估模型和基于云理论的模型各具有不同的特点,那么他们对相同项目的评价就有可能得到不相同的排序结果,因此,我们采用VIKOR算法来对待评价项目进行分等级验证,从而有效的解释了基于群决策的模型和基于云理论模型在排序结果上的不一致性。最后,我们建立了基于证据理论和云理论的综合模型,该模型将评价指标分为门槛性指标和非门槛性指标,使用云理论对门槛性指标进行合成,而采用证据理论对非门槛性指标进行合成,该模型有效的利用了证据理论和云理论在合成过称中的优点,而削减了这两者的局限性,从而使得决策结果更加的科学合理。这三种模型从不同的角度出发,改善了招商引资过程中的决策精度,通过对待遴选的项目进行评估,从而选出最优秀的项目进行引进,为成功招商提供了依据,减低了盲目招商所带来的风险。
With the rapid growth of economic and technological development zones, attracting foreign investment was contributing more and more to the development process of development zone. In order to guarantee the success of the investment work for the development zone, and reduce the failure which causes waste and pollution, countries in the whole world carry out project evaluation, and raise the threshold which forbids the unqualified project to get in. In order to solve the problem which arises in the process of investment project evaluation and reduce the risk of decision making, building a scientific model to evaluate the project has important theoretical and practical significance.
Our research aims at establishing a model for the project evaluation, we solved the following problems, the project evaluation index system, establish models for the investment project evaluation. The research results of this thesis are as follows:
Firstly, we establish the investment project evaluation index system. Based on the investigation and literature of project evaluation, we design the inquiry questionnaire first, and then, the experts answer the questions, evaluate the data with structure equation model, and finally identify the important indexes for project evaluation, An index system was established. The result shows:The first category is economic benefit, social benefit, ecological benefit and enterprise rating. The second category is investment amount and employment effects and so on.
Secondly, a detailed analysis was given which explains the role of the index plays in the process of evaluation. Through the investigation, we get the calculation method of the index, and give the weight to indicate the importance of the index in evaluating a project. All this makes the process of investment evaluation more calculable, and more thinkable.
Finally, the model for investment projects was constructed in the research step by step. There are three models. The first one is based on group decision making. Group decision making is a decision model which can maximize personal opinions, and reduce the individual's subjective factors, the group decision making makes the decision process more intelligent and less risky. Then, we find that, the group decision based on evidence theory focuses on the accumulation of evidence, and ignores the flaw of the minority of indexes, the decision maker may be mislead by this evaluation result. In order to overcome the problem, we put out the second model. The second model is based on cloud theory, cloud theory is dealing well with the qualitative and quantitative data, and is a conversion method between the two. This model has the advantage that it concerned the defect index the most, the evaluation result will be affected by the flaw. As there are different, so we use VIKOR method to verify the discordance, the result shows that both models are following the classification of alternative project. So as to combine the advantage of the two models, we build our third model, it bases on evidence theory and cloud theory, and the indexes are divided into key index and un-key index. Evidence theory is used for un-key index, and cloud theory is used for key index. The composite model can make a much more reasonable result, and help the decision maker to get the right decision. From different views, we build the three models, which can improve the quality of investment. Through evaluating the projects, we can select the most outstanding projects. It makes basis for the successful promotion and reduce the risk of investment.
引文
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