东亚区域经济一体化进程中中国贸易结构变迁与经济效应研究
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摘要
自上个世纪中期以来,东亚经济一直以其独特的活力出现在世界舞台。日本、东亚四小龙、东盟四小虎、中国等相继实施“出口导向型”战略,创造了东亚经济的奇迹。1997年的亚洲金融危机,2002年加入WTO,中国制造逐步成为世界经济中重要力量,引领了中国贸易和经济的繁荣,同时也深刻影响了东亚的分工网络。特别是随着中国-东盟自由贸易区协议的签订,中国和东盟的经济合作关系不断深化。2006年商务部提出“以中国-东盟自贸区为依托,加快建立周边的自贸区平台”,以及2007年党的十七大报告中“实施自由贸易区战略,加强双边多边经贸合作”,预示着以自由贸易区推动东亚经济一体化的构想。2008年世界金融危机的爆发,为东亚区域经济的深化整合进一步提供了舞台。未来,中国与东亚经济将何去何从,区域经济一体化是否会带来共赢,能否构成东亚经济发展的新引擎?而要回答这些问题,不但要深刻了解中国与东亚各经济体的贸易结构是如何变迁的?更要剖析东亚区域经济一体化各种方案对各国贸易结构的影响,以及这种传导对各国福利的影响?特别是中国的福利效应是如何动态演进的?
基于以上背景,论文基于东亚分工网络不断深化考虑,从产业间,产业内,产品内,以及产品技术含量等多层面出发,综合应用贸易专业化指数、显示性比较优势指数、互补性指数和产业内贸易指数,垂直专业化指数,改进的出口品的国内技术含量计算方法,系统研究了20世纪90年代中期以来中国与东亚各经济体间贸易结构的变迁。进一步,论文选取了多国CGE模型(GTAP模型)和考虑新贸易理论特征的单国动态CGE模型(MCHUGE)模型,从比较静态和动态角度综合考察了中国通过ECFA,中韩自由贸易区,中日韩自由贸易区参与东亚区域经济一体化进程,对中国及各东亚经济体贸易结构和经济效应的影响。
在理论层面上,本文首先建立了一套测度出口产品国内技术含量的方法,可较为准确的判断中国参与全球化以及区域经济一体化是否促使中国相关产业升级。其次,为了使东亚区域经济一体化经济效应评估结果更加贴近经济现实,本文把规模经济、垄断和产品多样化等新贸易理论引入到MCHUGE基础模型。在实证研究方面,本文首先利用联合国贸易统计数据库详实的数据,应用贸易专业化指数、显示性比较优势指数、互补性指数和产业内贸易指数测算了中国与各东亚经济体的贸易结构变迁。其次,应用BEC分类数据和计算中国出口的垂直专业化指数实证分析了中国与东亚各经济体的产品内贸易结构变迁。第三,对比研究日本、韩国和印度尼西亚以及中国出口品的国内技术含量。最后,本文利用多国CGE模型(GTAP模型)和单国动态CGE模型(MCHUGE)模型,从比较静态和动态角度两个角度实证研究了中国参与东亚区域经济一体化的各种方案的静态和动态经济效应及其变化轨迹,并在改变市场结构的基础上进一步研究了各种方案的动态经济效应。
主要研究结果显示：
(1)东亚各经济体具有竞争优势和比较优势的产品向资本密集型产品和技术密集型产品明显扩散趋势。中国出口与东亚各经济体的产业间互补性较弱,且呈下降趋势,产业内互补性逐渐加强,在纺织服装等劳动密集型产品方面我国与日本、韩国、新加坡等发达经济体仍然以产业间贸易为主,而与东盟五国以产业内贸易为主。对于电子电力产品,中国与东亚各经济体之间以产业内贸易为主,形成了东亚各经济体共有的竞争优势和比较优势。
(2)20世纪90年代中期以来,中国与东亚各经济体产品内贸易快速发展。其中,中国从东亚各经济体进口中间品的比重均在60%以上,而向东亚各经济体主要出口最终产品,形成了“东亚其他经济体—中国—欧美经济体”的“新贸易三角”。中国的出口品垂直专业化比率呈上升趋势,来自东盟五国的中间产品贡献更为显著,相比日本和台湾中间产品的贡献率有所下降。产业方面,垂直专业化比率最高的是通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,这进一步表明中国与东亚经济体在电子产品方面形成了深层分工网络。
出口品的国内技术含量的测算结果表明,中国加入WTO短期内对中国出口品的国内技术含量有负面影响,但从长期来看,中国出口品的国内技术含量随着在国内企业配套能力增强而回升,出口产品实现升级,中国参与全球化和区域经济体化并没有使中国出口品低端化。
(3)从一般均衡的角度看,东亚区域经济一体化进程中,中国的居民消费、投资和出口等“三驾马车”的增长率均有所上升,其中投资的贡献最大。产业方面,服装皮革羽绒及其制品业和纺织业等中国具有传统比较优势的劳动密集型产业产出均将大幅增加。具体而言,由于日本、韩国在交通运输设备制造业具有较的比较优势,中日韩区域贸易自由化对我国交通运输设备制造业产出负面影响较大,进而通过产业关联使金属冶炼及压延加工业的产出也减少。中国参与东亚区域经济一体化进程促使我国服装皮革羽绒及其制品业和纺织业等劳动密集型产业将大幅度增加。相对于东亚的日本、韩国和台湾等中国大陆具有比较优势的农业和食品制造业出口也实现较快增长。
如果考虑规模报酬递增、垄断和产品多样化等不完全竞争因素后,中国参与东亚区域贸易自由化对我国经济增长的实际促进作用更为显著,其中交通运输设备制造业、石油加工及炼焦业和金属冶炼及压延加工业三大产业的产出大幅度上升,其他关联产业从而受益,进而实际产出要大于完全竞争时的模拟。
最后,基于研究结论,本文就中国实施自由贸易区战略提出了政策建议。
Since the middle of last century, East Asian economy has been in the world stage with its unique dynamism. Japan, the East Asian Dragons, the ASEAN Tigers, China and other countries have successively implemented "export-oriented" strategy, jointly creating an East Asian economic miracle. The Asian financial crisis in1997and China's entry into WTO in2002have made Chinese manufacture an important force in the world economy and the pioneer of China's trade and economic prosperity that exposed a profound impact on division of the network in East Asia. Especially with the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement signed, the cooperation between China and ASEAN economies is constantly deepening. In2006, the Ministry of Commerce put forward the policy of "accelerating the establishment of peripheral free trade zones on the basis of China-ASEAN FTA". Then it was advocated in the report of the Seventeenth Party Congress in2007that "we should implement the Free Trade Area strategy and strengthen bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation". All of these indicate the idea of promoting economic integration in East Asia through free trade zones. The world financial crisis in2008provides a stage further for the deepening of the East Asian regional economic integration. In the future, what course to follow for China and East Asian economy? Will regional economic integration bring about win-win situation and become a new engine of economic development in East Asia? To answer these questions, we must first deeply understand how the trade structure of China and the rest of East Asian economies changes and then analyze the influence of different proposals about Regional Economic Integration in East Asia on the impact of trade structure and national welfare, especially the changes of welfare effect in China in a dynamic perspective.
Based on the background mentioned above considering Division of Network of East Asia which deepens constantly, the change of trade structure between China and the rest of East Asia economies since the mid1990's has been investigated systematically, in this thesis, adopting a series of index such as TSC(Trade Specializing Coefficient), RCA(Revealed Comparative Advantage Index), TCI(Trade Complementarity Index), Ⅲ(Intra-Industry Trade Index), Ⅷ(Vertical Intra-industry Index) and revised method calculating technology content of exports from multi-levels of inter-industry, intra-industry, intra-product and technology content of products. Choosing multi-country CGE model (GTAP) and single-country dynamic CGE model (MCHUGE) which considers new trade theory, the effect of China's participation in East Asia Regional Economic Integration through ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement), Sino-Korean Free Trade, NEAFTA (North East-Asia Free Trade Agreement) on trade structure and economy as a whole of China and the rest of East Asia economies are examined in statistic and dynamic fashion respectively.
In terms of theoretical perspective, this thesis builds a set of methods calculating the technology content of exports at first with aims to determining more accurately whether china's participation in globalization and regional economic integration will promote Chinese industrial upgrade. Secondly, in order to make the evaluating results close to economic real life, this thesis introduces New Trade Theories like Scale Economy, Monopolization and Product Diversification and so on into stylized model (MCHUGE). Regarding the empirical study, this thesis estimates the change of trade structure between China and the rest of East Asia economies applying TSI, RCA, TC and III with the detailed data from UNCOMTRAD. Secondly, the change of intra-product trade is analyzed by adopting BEC (Broad Economic Categories, a three-digit classification) data and calculating VIII of Chinese exports. Thirdly, the technology content of exports from Japan, Korea, Indonesia and China is compared. Finally, the economic effect of various proposals for china's participation in East Asia Regional Integration is evaluated in static and dynamic fashion respectively, using GTAP and MCHUGE. In addition, the dynamic economic effect of various proposals is further estimated on the basis of transformed market structure. Key findings are showed as follows,
(I) There is trend that the competitive advantage and comparative advantage of products in East Asian economies are gradually more concentrated on capital-intensive and technology-intensive products. The inter-industry trade complementarities between China and the rest of East Asian economies are weak and decreasing while those of the intra-industry are gradually strengthening. In the labor-intensive products such as textile and clothing, China primarily keeps inter-industry trade with developed entities such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore whereas mainly remain intra-industry trade with five countries in ASEAN. On the other hand, for electronic and electrical products, there is mainly the intra-industry trade between China and the rest of East Asian economies, thereby forming a common competitive and comparative advantage in East Asia.
(Ⅱ) Since the mid-1990s, the intra-product trade between China and the rest of East Asian economics has developed rapidly. Specifically, the proportion of intermediate goods imported from East Asian economies of China is more than60%, while the major exports from China to the rest of East Asian economies are final products, thus forming a "New Trade Triangle" between "the other East Asian economies-China-European and American economies". The rate of Chinese exports' vertical specialization keeps rising. The intermediate products from the five countries of ASEAN make more significant contribution in contrast of the decreased of that in Japan and Taiwan. In respect of Industries, there is the highest rate of vertical specialization in communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, which further indicates that China has formed a deep division network with other East Asian economies in electronic products
The calculation results of technology content of domestic exports show that China's entry into WTO has a negative impact on the technical content of domestic exports in China, but in the long run, it will recover with the enhancement of supporting capacity of domestic enterprises, and promote the exports upgrading. China's participation in globalization and regional economic integration does not make the added value in Chinese exports locked in low-end.
(Ⅲ) With respects of general equilibrium, the growth rate of investment, export, consumption, which is known as the troika for economic growth, is all on the rise in the process of East Asia Regional Integration and the investment contributes mostly. In terms of industrial level, the output of Apparel, Leather, Down&Products and Textile, which is Labor-intensive Industry in China with the traditional comparative advantage, will rise steeply. To be more specific, there is relatively greater negative effect of NEAFTA on Chinese Transportation Equipment Industry and then the output of Smelting&Pressing of Metals Industry will decrease through the close industrial linkage, for Japan and Korea has a stronger comparative advantage in Transportation Equipment Industry. All in all, the participating of China in East Asia Regional Integration will promote the substantial increase of output in Labor-intensive industry like Apparel, Leather, Down&Products and Textile. In addition, the export of Agriculture&Foods Products industry in China grows fairly rapidly, which Chinese mainland has more comparative advantage than Japan, South Korea and Taiwan does.
If the Incomplete Competition factors such as Increasing Return of Scales, Monopolization and Products Diversification are considered, the actual promoting effect of East Asia Regional Trade Liberalization on Chinese economic growth is more remarkable. More specifically, the output of Transportation Equipment, Petroleum Processing and Coking and Smelting&Pressing of Metals Industry increases dramatically which benefits the industries with close linkage to them at the same time and then the simulation result regarding the actual output is bigger than that in complete competition setting.
In the end, the policy suggestions in terms of Chinese FTA strategy are put forward on the basis of research conclusion.
基于以上背景,论文基于东亚分工网络不断深化考虑,从产业间,产业内,产品内,以及产品技术含量等多层面出发,综合应用贸易专业化指数、显示性比较优势指数、互补性指数和产业内贸易指数,垂直专业化指数,改进的出口品的国内技术含量计算方法,系统研究了20世纪90年代中期以来中国与东亚各经济体间贸易结构的变迁。进一步,论文选取了多国CGE模型(GTAP模型)和考虑新贸易理论特征的单国动态CGE模型(MCHUGE)模型,从比较静态和动态角度综合考察了中国通过ECFA,中韩自由贸易区,中日韩自由贸易区参与东亚区域经济一体化进程,对中国及各东亚经济体贸易结构和经济效应的影响。
在理论层面上,本文首先建立了一套测度出口产品国内技术含量的方法,可较为准确的判断中国参与全球化以及区域经济一体化是否促使中国相关产业升级。其次,为了使东亚区域经济一体化经济效应评估结果更加贴近经济现实,本文把规模经济、垄断和产品多样化等新贸易理论引入到MCHUGE基础模型。在实证研究方面,本文首先利用联合国贸易统计数据库详实的数据,应用贸易专业化指数、显示性比较优势指数、互补性指数和产业内贸易指数测算了中国与各东亚经济体的贸易结构变迁。其次,应用BEC分类数据和计算中国出口的垂直专业化指数实证分析了中国与东亚各经济体的产品内贸易结构变迁。第三,对比研究日本、韩国和印度尼西亚以及中国出口品的国内技术含量。最后,本文利用多国CGE模型(GTAP模型)和单国动态CGE模型(MCHUGE)模型,从比较静态和动态角度两个角度实证研究了中国参与东亚区域经济一体化的各种方案的静态和动态经济效应及其变化轨迹,并在改变市场结构的基础上进一步研究了各种方案的动态经济效应。
主要研究结果显示：
(1)东亚各经济体具有竞争优势和比较优势的产品向资本密集型产品和技术密集型产品明显扩散趋势。中国出口与东亚各经济体的产业间互补性较弱,且呈下降趋势,产业内互补性逐渐加强,在纺织服装等劳动密集型产品方面我国与日本、韩国、新加坡等发达经济体仍然以产业间贸易为主,而与东盟五国以产业内贸易为主。对于电子电力产品,中国与东亚各经济体之间以产业内贸易为主,形成了东亚各经济体共有的竞争优势和比较优势。
(2)20世纪90年代中期以来,中国与东亚各经济体产品内贸易快速发展。其中,中国从东亚各经济体进口中间品的比重均在60%以上,而向东亚各经济体主要出口最终产品,形成了“东亚其他经济体—中国—欧美经济体”的“新贸易三角”。中国的出口品垂直专业化比率呈上升趋势,来自东盟五国的中间产品贡献更为显著,相比日本和台湾中间产品的贡献率有所下降。产业方面,垂直专业化比率最高的是通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,这进一步表明中国与东亚经济体在电子产品方面形成了深层分工网络。
出口品的国内技术含量的测算结果表明,中国加入WTO短期内对中国出口品的国内技术含量有负面影响,但从长期来看,中国出口品的国内技术含量随着在国内企业配套能力增强而回升,出口产品实现升级,中国参与全球化和区域经济体化并没有使中国出口品低端化。
(3)从一般均衡的角度看,东亚区域经济一体化进程中,中国的居民消费、投资和出口等“三驾马车”的增长率均有所上升,其中投资的贡献最大。产业方面,服装皮革羽绒及其制品业和纺织业等中国具有传统比较优势的劳动密集型产业产出均将大幅增加。具体而言,由于日本、韩国在交通运输设备制造业具有较的比较优势,中日韩区域贸易自由化对我国交通运输设备制造业产出负面影响较大,进而通过产业关联使金属冶炼及压延加工业的产出也减少。中国参与东亚区域经济一体化进程促使我国服装皮革羽绒及其制品业和纺织业等劳动密集型产业将大幅度增加。相对于东亚的日本、韩国和台湾等中国大陆具有比较优势的农业和食品制造业出口也实现较快增长。
如果考虑规模报酬递增、垄断和产品多样化等不完全竞争因素后,中国参与东亚区域贸易自由化对我国经济增长的实际促进作用更为显著,其中交通运输设备制造业、石油加工及炼焦业和金属冶炼及压延加工业三大产业的产出大幅度上升,其他关联产业从而受益,进而实际产出要大于完全竞争时的模拟。
最后,基于研究结论,本文就中国实施自由贸易区战略提出了政策建议。
Since the middle of last century, East Asian economy has been in the world stage with its unique dynamism. Japan, the East Asian Dragons, the ASEAN Tigers, China and other countries have successively implemented "export-oriented" strategy, jointly creating an East Asian economic miracle. The Asian financial crisis in1997and China's entry into WTO in2002have made Chinese manufacture an important force in the world economy and the pioneer of China's trade and economic prosperity that exposed a profound impact on division of the network in East Asia. Especially with the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement signed, the cooperation between China and ASEAN economies is constantly deepening. In2006, the Ministry of Commerce put forward the policy of "accelerating the establishment of peripheral free trade zones on the basis of China-ASEAN FTA". Then it was advocated in the report of the Seventeenth Party Congress in2007that "we should implement the Free Trade Area strategy and strengthen bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation". All of these indicate the idea of promoting economic integration in East Asia through free trade zones. The world financial crisis in2008provides a stage further for the deepening of the East Asian regional economic integration. In the future, what course to follow for China and East Asian economy? Will regional economic integration bring about win-win situation and become a new engine of economic development in East Asia? To answer these questions, we must first deeply understand how the trade structure of China and the rest of East Asian economies changes and then analyze the influence of different proposals about Regional Economic Integration in East Asia on the impact of trade structure and national welfare, especially the changes of welfare effect in China in a dynamic perspective.
Based on the background mentioned above considering Division of Network of East Asia which deepens constantly, the change of trade structure between China and the rest of East Asia economies since the mid1990's has been investigated systematically, in this thesis, adopting a series of index such as TSC(Trade Specializing Coefficient), RCA(Revealed Comparative Advantage Index), TCI(Trade Complementarity Index), Ⅲ(Intra-Industry Trade Index), Ⅷ(Vertical Intra-industry Index) and revised method calculating technology content of exports from multi-levels of inter-industry, intra-industry, intra-product and technology content of products. Choosing multi-country CGE model (GTAP) and single-country dynamic CGE model (MCHUGE) which considers new trade theory, the effect of China's participation in East Asia Regional Economic Integration through ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement), Sino-Korean Free Trade, NEAFTA (North East-Asia Free Trade Agreement) on trade structure and economy as a whole of China and the rest of East Asia economies are examined in statistic and dynamic fashion respectively.
In terms of theoretical perspective, this thesis builds a set of methods calculating the technology content of exports at first with aims to determining more accurately whether china's participation in globalization and regional economic integration will promote Chinese industrial upgrade. Secondly, in order to make the evaluating results close to economic real life, this thesis introduces New Trade Theories like Scale Economy, Monopolization and Product Diversification and so on into stylized model (MCHUGE). Regarding the empirical study, this thesis estimates the change of trade structure between China and the rest of East Asia economies applying TSI, RCA, TC and III with the detailed data from UNCOMTRAD. Secondly, the change of intra-product trade is analyzed by adopting BEC (Broad Economic Categories, a three-digit classification) data and calculating VIII of Chinese exports. Thirdly, the technology content of exports from Japan, Korea, Indonesia and China is compared. Finally, the economic effect of various proposals for china's participation in East Asia Regional Integration is evaluated in static and dynamic fashion respectively, using GTAP and MCHUGE. In addition, the dynamic economic effect of various proposals is further estimated on the basis of transformed market structure. Key findings are showed as follows,
(I) There is trend that the competitive advantage and comparative advantage of products in East Asian economies are gradually more concentrated on capital-intensive and technology-intensive products. The inter-industry trade complementarities between China and the rest of East Asian economies are weak and decreasing while those of the intra-industry are gradually strengthening. In the labor-intensive products such as textile and clothing, China primarily keeps inter-industry trade with developed entities such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore whereas mainly remain intra-industry trade with five countries in ASEAN. On the other hand, for electronic and electrical products, there is mainly the intra-industry trade between China and the rest of East Asian economies, thereby forming a common competitive and comparative advantage in East Asia.
(Ⅱ) Since the mid-1990s, the intra-product trade between China and the rest of East Asian economics has developed rapidly. Specifically, the proportion of intermediate goods imported from East Asian economies of China is more than60%, while the major exports from China to the rest of East Asian economies are final products, thus forming a "New Trade Triangle" between "the other East Asian economies-China-European and American economies". The rate of Chinese exports' vertical specialization keeps rising. The intermediate products from the five countries of ASEAN make more significant contribution in contrast of the decreased of that in Japan and Taiwan. In respect of Industries, there is the highest rate of vertical specialization in communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, which further indicates that China has formed a deep division network with other East Asian economies in electronic products
The calculation results of technology content of domestic exports show that China's entry into WTO has a negative impact on the technical content of domestic exports in China, but in the long run, it will recover with the enhancement of supporting capacity of domestic enterprises, and promote the exports upgrading. China's participation in globalization and regional economic integration does not make the added value in Chinese exports locked in low-end.
(Ⅲ) With respects of general equilibrium, the growth rate of investment, export, consumption, which is known as the troika for economic growth, is all on the rise in the process of East Asia Regional Integration and the investment contributes mostly. In terms of industrial level, the output of Apparel, Leather, Down&Products and Textile, which is Labor-intensive Industry in China with the traditional comparative advantage, will rise steeply. To be more specific, there is relatively greater negative effect of NEAFTA on Chinese Transportation Equipment Industry and then the output of Smelting&Pressing of Metals Industry will decrease through the close industrial linkage, for Japan and Korea has a stronger comparative advantage in Transportation Equipment Industry. All in all, the participating of China in East Asia Regional Integration will promote the substantial increase of output in Labor-intensive industry like Apparel, Leather, Down&Products and Textile. In addition, the export of Agriculture&Foods Products industry in China grows fairly rapidly, which Chinese mainland has more comparative advantage than Japan, South Korea and Taiwan does.
If the Incomplete Competition factors such as Increasing Return of Scales, Monopolization and Products Diversification are considered, the actual promoting effect of East Asia Regional Trade Liberalization on Chinese economic growth is more remarkable. More specifically, the output of Transportation Equipment, Petroleum Processing and Coking and Smelting&Pressing of Metals Industry increases dramatically which benefits the industries with close linkage to them at the same time and then the simulation result regarding the actual output is bigger than that in complete competition setting.
In the end, the policy suggestions in terms of Chinese FTA strategy are put forward on the basis of research conclusion.
引文
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