集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性建模与仿真研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化和贸易自由化的发展,集装箱班轮运输以其安全、便利操作及方便采用多式联运等特点,成为海运市场最为重要的组成部分。集装箱班轮航运网络分析、优化、设计是班轮研究领域的核心问题,也是班轮公司管理决策最为重要的问题。可靠性用于研究系统提供服务水平的稳定程度。目前集装箱班轮航运网络分析、优化、设计研究多从效益和效率角度展开,对可靠性因素研究较少。近年来,拥堵、罢工等频频发生的干扰事件对港口在班轮服务系统中的功能产生影响。在行业竞争激烈与环境复杂多变的背景下,评估干扰事件对班轮服务系统提供稳定服务水平的影响显得尤为重要。本文借鉴可靠性理论和网络理论,将班轮公司服务系统抽象成由点和边二元关系组成的网络模型,把港口不能为班轮公司提供规定功能界定为节点失效,主要研究了集装箱班轮航运网络面对节点随机失效和重要节点失效两种失效方式下保持结构和功能的能力评估问题。通过集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性评估,可用于班轮公司优化和设计可靠的服务网络,从而帮助班轮公司降低成本、提高服务质量、增强竞争能力。
本论文共分六章。第一章绪论部分分析了论文的研究背景与意义、相关研究进展、研究问题特殊性、技术路线等。第二章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性指标和可靠性分析方法。第三章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性问题。第四章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性问题。第五章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络脆弱性问题。第六章为结论、创新点总结与展望。论文的主要工作如下：
(1)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性指标体系,给出了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性分析方法
通过分析发现集装箱班轮航运网络与其他交通网络相比在结构和功能方面具有自身特点,借鉴路网、公交网络、铁路网络等交通网络可靠性指标,从网络管理角度,构建集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性评估指标,这些指标包括连通可靠性、时间可靠性、能力可靠性和脆弱性。针对集装箱班轮航运网络中节点往往涉及多个国家和地区、网络中节点众多、结构较为复杂、难以收集用于解析求解的完备数据,给出了适合集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性分析的仿真方法。
(2)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性仿真模型并给出了仿真求解方法
基于班轮航运网络自身结构和功能特点,定义了集装箱班轮航运网络面对节点随机失效情况下的OD对连通可靠性和描述全局情况的网络连通可靠性,建立了连通可靠性仿真模型,引入改进的布尔矩阵方法用于判断网络中节点对的可达情况,给出了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性的仿真方法和步骤,并且通过修改仿真次数来提高仿真结果的精度,将误差控制在要求的范围内,并分析了甩港和重要港口节点保护两种策略对改善集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性的作用。最后进行了实例仿真,验证方法的有效性和实用性。
(3)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性仿真模型并给出了仿真求解方法
时间和运力是当今竞争激烈的班轮行业管理的重要因素,不断增加的港口拥堵、罢工等干扰因素使得班轮航运服务质量不断的下降,导致更多的等待时间和相对运力的减少。结合路网、公交网络、铁路网络等其他交通网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性研究成果以及班轮航运网络自身特点,建立了集装箱班轮航运网络面对节点随机失效情况下的OD对时间可靠性和能力可靠性仿真求解模型,运用仿真方法给出了班轮航运网络OD对时间可靠性和能力可靠性求解方法。
(4)分析了集装箱班轮航运网络拓扑特性,改进了节点重要度评估方法,并给出了脆弱性评估方法
以占全球集装箱总运力前25位的班轮公司航线构造全球集装箱班轮航运网络和运力第一的马士基航运网络为例分析了集装箱班轮行业网络和单个公司网络,通过分析发现这两个网络具有无标度效应和小世界特性。提出了基于可达矩阵的节点删除方法用于评估网络中节点的重要度,进而从悲观角度研究集装箱班轮航运网络中重要节点失效对网络结构和功能影响,给出重要节点攻击对网络主要拓扑统计特征、连通性、时间因素影响的估计方法,给出节点随机失效和重要节点失效对网络影响对比方法。
Reliability analysis has been extensively applied in many systems (such as power system, water supply system, communication network etc.) as an important part of layout, design, implement. In recent years, reliability plays a key role in many transportation networks, researchers paid more attention to road network, public transportation network and railway network, but very little attention has been paid to reliability analysis of container liner shipping network. In fact, container liner shipping has changed the way that we transport goods around the world. However, there are numerous stochastic events in container ports, congestion and so on, which disrupt the function in container liner shipping network. So it is important to study reliability of container liner shipping network in competitive and uncertainty environment, which could provide method for liner operators to analyze, design and optimize their service nerworks.
There are six chapters in this dissertation. The first chapter is about background, relative research review, research approach, technical route and skeleton of research content. In the second chapter, the evaluation index system for container liner shipping network is established. In the third chapter, connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network is studied. The fourth chapter is about time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network. The vulnerability of container liner shipping network is studied in the following chapter. The last chapter is conclusion and future work. The main work of this dissertation is shown as follows.
The container shipping network characterizes on construction and function compared with other transportation networks (such as road network, bus network, railway network, and so on). The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network is established from the perspective of network management drew lessons from other transportation network. The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network includes connectivity reliability, time reliability, capacity reliability and vulnerability. The simulation method is given to obtain these values due to the complexity of container liner shipping network and the difficulty in gathering data.
The connectivity reliability of an original destination (OD) pair under partial nodes' failures is described, and the connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network can be calculated on the average of all OD pairs'connectivity reliability. In order to improve the efficiency of the calculating reliability of container liner shipping network, reachability matrix and simulation method are introduced, and the validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method. The results show its practicality and effectiveness.
Calculation models for time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network are presented based on the existing research of time reliability and capacity reliability on other transportation networks and characters of container liner shipping network. Simulation method was used to improve the efficiency of calculation. The validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
The global liner shipping network constructed by Top 25 carriers'lines and Maersk shipping lines network have small world character and scale-free effect by analyzing statistical characters. Networks with inhomogeneous topology are very fragile to attacks. The random error of an important node is regarded as an attack for container liner shipping network. A method with deleting a node based on reachability matrix is given to evaluate the node importance. A measurement method is given to evaluate the influence for main characters, including connectivity reliability, time reliability of container liner shipping network under attacks. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
本论文共分六章。第一章绪论部分分析了论文的研究背景与意义、相关研究进展、研究问题特殊性、技术路线等。第二章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性指标和可靠性分析方法。第三章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性问题。第四章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性问题。第五章研究了集装箱班轮航运网络脆弱性问题。第六章为结论、创新点总结与展望。论文的主要工作如下：
(1)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性指标体系,给出了集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性分析方法
通过分析发现集装箱班轮航运网络与其他交通网络相比在结构和功能方面具有自身特点,借鉴路网、公交网络、铁路网络等交通网络可靠性指标,从网络管理角度,构建集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性评估指标,这些指标包括连通可靠性、时间可靠性、能力可靠性和脆弱性。针对集装箱班轮航运网络中节点往往涉及多个国家和地区、网络中节点众多、结构较为复杂、难以收集用于解析求解的完备数据,给出了适合集装箱班轮航运网络可靠性分析的仿真方法。
(2)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性仿真模型并给出了仿真求解方法
基于班轮航运网络自身结构和功能特点,定义了集装箱班轮航运网络面对节点随机失效情况下的OD对连通可靠性和描述全局情况的网络连通可靠性,建立了连通可靠性仿真模型,引入改进的布尔矩阵方法用于判断网络中节点对的可达情况,给出了集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性的仿真方法和步骤,并且通过修改仿真次数来提高仿真结果的精度,将误差控制在要求的范围内,并分析了甩港和重要港口节点保护两种策略对改善集装箱班轮航运网络连通可靠性的作用。最后进行了实例仿真,验证方法的有效性和实用性。
(3)建立了集装箱班轮航运网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性仿真模型并给出了仿真求解方法
时间和运力是当今竞争激烈的班轮行业管理的重要因素,不断增加的港口拥堵、罢工等干扰因素使得班轮航运服务质量不断的下降,导致更多的等待时间和相对运力的减少。结合路网、公交网络、铁路网络等其他交通网络时间可靠性和能力可靠性研究成果以及班轮航运网络自身特点,建立了集装箱班轮航运网络面对节点随机失效情况下的OD对时间可靠性和能力可靠性仿真求解模型,运用仿真方法给出了班轮航运网络OD对时间可靠性和能力可靠性求解方法。
(4)分析了集装箱班轮航运网络拓扑特性,改进了节点重要度评估方法,并给出了脆弱性评估方法
以占全球集装箱总运力前25位的班轮公司航线构造全球集装箱班轮航运网络和运力第一的马士基航运网络为例分析了集装箱班轮行业网络和单个公司网络,通过分析发现这两个网络具有无标度效应和小世界特性。提出了基于可达矩阵的节点删除方法用于评估网络中节点的重要度,进而从悲观角度研究集装箱班轮航运网络中重要节点失效对网络结构和功能影响,给出重要节点攻击对网络主要拓扑统计特征、连通性、时间因素影响的估计方法,给出节点随机失效和重要节点失效对网络影响对比方法。
Reliability analysis has been extensively applied in many systems (such as power system, water supply system, communication network etc.) as an important part of layout, design, implement. In recent years, reliability plays a key role in many transportation networks, researchers paid more attention to road network, public transportation network and railway network, but very little attention has been paid to reliability analysis of container liner shipping network. In fact, container liner shipping has changed the way that we transport goods around the world. However, there are numerous stochastic events in container ports, congestion and so on, which disrupt the function in container liner shipping network. So it is important to study reliability of container liner shipping network in competitive and uncertainty environment, which could provide method for liner operators to analyze, design and optimize their service nerworks.
There are six chapters in this dissertation. The first chapter is about background, relative research review, research approach, technical route and skeleton of research content. In the second chapter, the evaluation index system for container liner shipping network is established. In the third chapter, connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network is studied. The fourth chapter is about time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network. The vulnerability of container liner shipping network is studied in the following chapter. The last chapter is conclusion and future work. The main work of this dissertation is shown as follows.
The container shipping network characterizes on construction and function compared with other transportation networks (such as road network, bus network, railway network, and so on). The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network is established from the perspective of network management drew lessons from other transportation network. The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network includes connectivity reliability, time reliability, capacity reliability and vulnerability. The simulation method is given to obtain these values due to the complexity of container liner shipping network and the difficulty in gathering data.
The connectivity reliability of an original destination (OD) pair under partial nodes' failures is described, and the connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network can be calculated on the average of all OD pairs'connectivity reliability. In order to improve the efficiency of the calculating reliability of container liner shipping network, reachability matrix and simulation method are introduced, and the validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method. The results show its practicality and effectiveness.
Calculation models for time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network are presented based on the existing research of time reliability and capacity reliability on other transportation networks and characters of container liner shipping network. Simulation method was used to improve the efficiency of calculation. The validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
The global liner shipping network constructed by Top 25 carriers'lines and Maersk shipping lines network have small world character and scale-free effect by analyzing statistical characters. Networks with inhomogeneous topology are very fragile to attacks. The random error of an important node is regarded as an attack for container liner shipping network. A method with deleting a node based on reachability matrix is given to evaluate the node importance. A measurement method is given to evaluate the influence for main characters, including connectivity reliability, time reliability of container liner shipping network under attacks. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
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