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四川省西昌市吸毒人群HIV和梅毒感染及高危行为变化的研究
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摘要
研究背景
     自1981年发现艾滋病以来,全球累计2500万人因感染艾滋病病毒而死亡,艾滋病已经成为全球最严重的公共卫生问题之一。我国于1985年报告首例艾滋病病例,经历了输入散发期(1985~1988年),局部流行期(1989~1994年),现在已经进入了广泛流行期(1995~至今)。1998年以来,全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)均有疫情报告,截至2007年10月,全国有74%的县(市、区)报告了艾滋病病毒感染者或病人。截至2007年底,估计我国现存艾滋病病毒((Human Immunodeficiency Virus,HIV)感染者和病人约70万(55万~85万),虽吸毒、暗娼和孕产妇哨点的艾滋病病毒抗体阳性率有逐年增加的趋势,但艾滋病疫情上升速度有所减缓,这可能与艾滋病行为干预的实施有关。共用器具注射吸毒及非保护性性行为是感染和传播艾滋病的主要危险因素,在我国经共用器具注射吸毒是艾滋病的主要传播途径,云南、四川、广西及新疆等西部地区,吸毒情况尤为严重,艾滋病流行率高。由于静脉吸毒人群不卫生的注射吸毒行为和非保护性性行为相当普遍,使该人群成为传染性疾病感染和传播的重要人群。静脉吸毒人群的死亡率是一般人群的6-30倍,吸毒过量死亡是主要原因。因此该人群不仅要面对各种传染病的侵袭,还要面对高死亡率的风险。随着我国HIV防治试点项目如美沙酮替代治疗、针具交换、100%安全套、HIV自愿咨询检测等的实施和推广应用,都需要将吸毒者长期保持在项目中,但由于吸毒人群的隐蔽性和敏感性,针对该人群开展的队列随访会遇到更多困难,而研究队列的保持率会直接影响所获得研究数据的科学性。因此,了解吸毒人群的队列保持情况及其影响因素对开展艾滋病防治项目的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。尤其,随着我国HIV防治试点项目的实施和推广应用,需要了解艾滋病流行及高危行为的变化情况,为防治措施的完善和更好的控制HIV的流行和传播,提供科学的现场数据。前瞻性队列研究能直接反映不同时间的疾病发生情况及其动态变化,不同时间开展的多次横断面研究也可估计疾病的发展趋势和行为学的变化趋势。因此,我们采用前瞻性队列研究结合连续多次横断面调查研究的方法,来深入探讨吸毒人群HIV和梅毒感染及高危行为的变化情况,为艾滋病科学防治提供数据。我们于2002年11月选择吸毒情况严重的四川省凉山彝族自治州西昌市开展以社区为基础的静脉吸毒人群前瞻性队列研究,来了解该人群的HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒的血清阳转率和行为学变化情况,并报道静脉吸毒者的死亡情况,本课题是在既往3年队列研究的基础上继续跟踪随访了1年;并在该现场分别于2004年、2005年和2007年开展了三次吸毒人群的横断面调查研究,来了解该人群的HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒的感染率和高危行为变化,现将4年前瞻性队列研究和3次横断面研究的结果报告如下:
     研究目的
     1、了解静脉吸毒人群队列4年随访的HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒血清抗体阳转率及高危行为的变化情况;
     2、了解静脉吸毒人群队列4年随访的队列保持率和死亡情况;
     3、了解吸毒人群连续横断面调查研究的HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒感染及高危行为的变化情况。
     研究方法
     1、于2002年11月,在四川省西昌市从社区中招募研究对象开展前瞻性队列研究,符合研究纳入标准的333名HIV血清抗体阴性的静脉吸毒人员进入队列随访。在队列本底和每6个月随访时,完成1次访谈并采集血样进行HIV抗体、HCV抗体、HBV表面抗原(HBsAg)和梅毒抗体检测。采用Poisson回归模型进行静脉吸毒人群HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒血清阳转的单因素和多因素分析;对静脉吸毒人群高危行为变化趋势进行描述性统计;采用)χ~2检验和多因素Logistic回归模型,分析队列本底的社会人口学和高危行为特征与研究队列保持率的关系。
     2、于2002年11月,在四川省西昌市社区中招募和组建静脉吸毒人员376人的队列,按照设计好的调查表对研究对象进行死亡情况的随访调查。采用Cox比例风险回归模型进行静脉吸毒人群死亡和吸毒过量死亡的单因素和多因素分析。根据多因素分析结果绘制静脉吸毒人群死亡的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线。
     3、分别于2004年、2005年和2007年在四川省西昌市戒毒所吸毒人员中开展了三次横断面调查,分别招募纳入吸毒人员552人、437人和469人,调查其社会人口学和行为学(吸毒行为和性行为)特征,采集血样进行HIV抗体、HCV抗体、HBV表面抗原(HBsAg)和梅毒抗体检测。对吸毒人群高危行为变化趋势进行描述性统计:单因素和多因素分析分别采用)χ~2检验和Logistic回归模型,分析三次横断面调查的HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒感染率和高危行为学的变化情况。
     研究结果
     1、队列本底HIV感染率为11.3%(43/379)。队列随访4年,HIV血清抗体阳转率为2.19/100人年(95%CI:1.12-3.27)。队列第1年、第2年、第3年和第4年随访中分别有8人、4人、2人和2人HIV血清抗体阳转,其HIV血清抗体阳转率分别为3.17/100人年(95%CI:0.97-5.37)、1.81/100人年(95%CI:0.04-3.58)、1.37/100人年(95%CI:0-3.28)和1.82/100人年(95%CI:0-4.33)。在多因素Poisson回归模型分析中,少数民族(RR,4.31;95%CI,1.56-11.91;P=0.0049)和近3个月共用针头或注射器频率≥1次/周(RR,32.51;95%CI,10.43-101.35;P<0.0001)与HIV血清抗体阳转有统计学意义。
     2、队列本底HCV感染率为71.0%(269/379),HCV血清抗体阳转率为31.63/100人年(95%CI:22.95-40.32)。队列第1年、第2年、第3年和第4年随访中分别有30人、12人、5人和4人HCV血清抗体阳转,其HCV血清抗体阳转率分别为42.07/100人年(95%CI:27.02-57.12)、31.65/100人年(95%CI:13.74-49.56)、15.59/100人年(95%CI:1.92-29.25)和20.08/100人年(95%CI:0.40-39.76)。在多因素Poisson回归模型分析中,近3个月静脉注射频率≥7次/周(RR,8.30;95%CI,4.70-14.68;P<0.0001)与HCV血清抗体阳转有统计学意义。
     3、队列本底HBsAg阳性率为16.9%(64/379),HBsAg血清阳转率为11.24/100人年(95%CI:8.30-14.19)。队列第1年、第2年、第3年和第4年随访中分别有28人、14人、9人和5人HBsAg血清阳转,其HBsAg血清阳转率分别为14.16/100人年(95%CI:8.91-19.40)、9.15/100人年(95%CI:4.36-13.94)、8.97/100人年(95%CI:3.11-14.82)和10.68/100人年(95%CI:1.32-20.04)。在多因素Poisson回归模型分析中,近3个月静脉注射频率≥7次/周(RR,6.62;95%CI:3.85-11.38;P<0.0001)和梅毒感染(RR,2.16;95%CI:1.22-3.82;P=0.0086)与HBsAg血清阳转的关系有统计学意义。
     4、队列本底梅毒感染率为15.3%(58/379),梅毒血清抗体阳转率为4.15/100人年(95%CI,2.49-5.82),队列第1年、第2年、第3年和第4年随访中分别有13人、6人、1人和4人梅毒血清抗体阳转,其梅毒血清抗体阳转率分别为6.04/100人年(95%CI:2.76-9.32)、3.18/100人年(95%CI:0.64-5.73)、0.87/100人年(95%CI:0-2.58)和6.75/100人年(95%CI:0.13-13.36)。在多因素Poisson回归模型中,女性(RR,4.09;95%CI:1.79-9.34;P=0.0008)和已婚或同居(RR,2.65;95%CI:1.19-5.92;P=0.0173)与梅毒血清抗体阳转的关系有统计学意义。
     5、队列随访4年,静脉吸毒人群队列保持率为59.2%(197/333)。在多因素logistic回归模型分析中,与队列保持率的关系有统计学意义的变量有:6个月回访到(OR,4.01;95%CI,2.35-6.84;P<0.0001)和初中及以上文化程度(OR,2.11;95%CI,1.31-3.40;P=0.0020)。在队列4年的随访期间,共用针头或注射器行为呈明显下降趋势,但非保护性性行为变化不明显。
     6、在队列4年随访中,死亡45人,死亡率为32.96/1000人年(95%CI:23.33-42.59),第1年、第2年、第3年和第4年随访中分别死亡28人、11人、5人和1人,死亡率分别为77.32/1000人年(95%CI:48.68-105.95)、32.06/1000人年(95%CI:13.12-51.01)、15.27/1000人年(95%CI:1.88-28.65)和3.01/1000人年(95%CI:0-8.90)。吸毒过量占全部死因的68.9%(31/45)。吸毒过量死亡率为22.89/1000人年(95%CI:14.83-30.95)。第1年、第2年和第3年随访中吸毒过量死亡分别为18人、8人、4人和1人,其吸毒过量死亡率分别为42.07/1000人年(95%CI:27.02-57.12)、31.65/1000人年(95%CI:13.74-49.56)、15.59/1000人年(95%CI:1.92-29.25)和3.01/1000人年(95%CI:0-8.90),吸毒过量死亡平均年龄(30.5±6.2)岁。多因素Cox回归模型分析,近3个月静脉注射频率≥7次/周(HR,3.69;95%CI:1.96-6.94;P<0.0001)与全因死亡关系有统计学意义;吸毒年限≥10年(HR,2.53;95%CI:1.19-5.39;P=0.0161)和近3个月静脉注射频率≥7次/周(HR,3.60;95%CI:1.70-7.66;P=0.0009)与吸毒过量死亡有统计学联系。
     7、在三次横断面调查研究中,该人群中近3个月静脉注射频率≥7次/周的比例(2007年vs2004年,AOR,0.35;95%CI,0.24-0.51,P<0.01)和近3个月共用针头或注射器(直接共用)的比例下降(2007年vs2004年,AOR,0.48;95%CI,0.29-0.78,P<0.01)均呈下降趋势,近3个月吸食海洛因或其他毒品频率≥17次/周的比例有所上升(2007年vs2004年,AOR,1.39;95%CI,1.06-1.82,P<0.01);而高危性行为没有明显的变化。
     结论
     1、本队列研究结果表明该地区静脉吸毒人群HIV、HCV、HBsAg和梅毒血清阳转率较高。共用注射吸毒行为有所下降,但非保护性性行为变化不明显;同时,连续三次横断面调查研究结果也显示,从2004年到2007年,该地区吸毒人群共用注射吸毒行为有所降低,但非保护性性行为变化不明显。在艾滋病防治工作中,应关注吸毒人群高危性行为在HIV传播中的作用,同时加强对该人群高危吸毒和性行为HIV传播途径的预防控制和干预力度。
     2、初中以下文化程度和6个月未随访到的静脉吸毒人群队列保持率低,需制定针对性的队列保持策略来提高其保持率。
     3、海洛因吸毒过量是静脉吸毒人群的主要死因,需针对吸毒过量采用干预对策,尤其需提高美沙酮维持治疗的依从性和覆盖面。
BACKGROUND
     The main factor associated with HIV and other blood-borne transmitted diseases is the multi-person re-use or sharing of syringes and needles. In addition, the indirect sharing of equipment such as water, cotton, cookers and other drug preparation equipment has been attributed to assisting HIV transmission. Particularly where IDUs sell sex to help fund their drug use, injecting drug users (IDUs) are also vulnerable to HIV infection through sexual transmission. They are also at high risk from other blood-borne and sexual-transmitted infections such as hepatitis B and C, and syphilis, and from premature death from drug overdose or sepsis infection. Because of a large population base, a small increase of HIV prevalence in the general population in China would mean a large increase in the number of domestic infections and a significant contribution to the total number of infections around the world. The traditional approach to identify risk factors for HIV infection among IDUs is to conduct cross-sectional survey in a defined area. However, a more definitive approach to identify risk factors for HIV infection is to assemble a cohort of initially uninfected individuals who are then followed prospectively at prescribed time intervals for seroconversion. This design, the seroincidence cohort, overcomes the major limitation of the cross-sectional seroprevalence study by establishing a temporal causal relationship between expose and disease occurrence measured by seroconversion. Several cohort studies have been conducted among IDUs in China, most in the provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi, which have a high HIV prevalence. These studies showed varying but generally high seroconversion rates. China has a large geographic area and a variety of cultures and customs; more cohort studies among IDUs should provide valuable data for understanding the whole picture of the HIV epidemic. In addition, comprehensive evaluation of the factors associated with HIV, HCV, HBsAg, syphilis seroconversion in the IDU cohort would assist in developing intervention programs among this population. The aim of this 4-year cohort study was to estimate the trends of HIV, HCV, HBsAg, syphilis incidences and HIV/HCV coinfection rates, mortality rates and death causes, as well as to identify the independent factors for the incidences to HIV, HCV, HBsAg, syphilis, as well as mortality. At the almost same time, we start three cross-sectional surveys to know the trends of prevalence of HIV, HCV, HBsAg, syphilis and high risk behaviors among IDUs in Xichang County of Sichuan Province, China.
     OBJECTIVES
     1. To investigate HIV, HCV, HBsAg and syphilis sero-incidence and contributed factors among IDUs in a drug trafficking city of southwest Sichuan Province and to knowledge trends of HIV risk behaviors in a prospective cohort of IDUs; to compare with trends of the prevalence of HIV, HCV, HBsAg and syphilis and risk behaviors in three cross-sectional surveys among IDUs.
     2. To investigate cohort retention and factors associated with Socio-demographic characteristics, drug use and sexual behaviors at the baseline among IDUs in Xichang, Sichuan Province.
     3. To study the mortality in the 4-year follow-up study of IDUs in Xichang of Sichuan Province.
     METHODS
     1. In November 2002, a community-based baseline survey was conducted to recruit 333 HIV-seronegative IDUs for a prospective cohort study in Xichang County of Sichuan Province, China. Follow-up visits were conducted every 6 months to investigate drug use and sexual behaviors, and blood specimens were also collected to test for HIV antibody, HCV antibody, HBsAg, and syphilis antibody. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression model were conducted to analyze factors contributed to HIV, HCV, HBsAg, syphilis seroconversion. Factors associated with participants completing the 4-year follow-up on time were analyzed using chi-square test in univariate analysis and Logistic regression model in multivariate analysis. Descriptive statistical analyses were used to knowledge the trends of drug use and sexual behaviors in a prospective cohort of IDUs.
     2. Through November 2002, 376 injection drug users were recruited and then followed up for four year as part of a prospective cohort study conducted in Xichang site. Deaths were recorded with a designable questionnaire during the follow-up period. Socio-demographics and risk behaviors were recorded at the time of screening. Trends in mortality were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis.
     3. In May 2004, Oct 2005 and June 2007, three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in drug detoxification in Xichang County of Sichuan Province, China. A questionnaire was formed to investigate drug use and sexual behaviors, and blood specimens were also collected to test for HIV antibody, HCV antibody, HBsAg, and syphilis antibody. The trends of drug use and sexual behaviors in three cross-section studies were analyzed by Logistic regression.
     RESULTS
     1. HIV prevalence at baseline was 11.3% (43/379), and total HIV seroincidence was 2.19 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-3.27), and all subtypes of 16 HIV-1 seroconversion were CRF_07BC. 13 HIV-1 seroconversion people are firstly infected with HCV. HIV incidence per 100 person-years declined first and then rose at the fourth follow-up year, from 3.17 in 2002-2003 (95% CI: 0.97-5.37) to 1.81 in 2003-2004 (95% CI: 0.04-3.58), and 1.37 in 2004-2005 (95% CI: 0-3.28) and 1.82 in 2005-2006 (95% CI: 0-4.33). Multivariate Poisson regression model showed that risk factors, which were significantly associated with HIV seroincidence, included minority ethnics (Relative ratio (RR), 4.31; 95% CI, 1.56-11.91; P=0.0049) and having shared needles and syringes in the past 3 months≥1 times/week (RR, 32.51; 95% CI, 10.43-101.35; P<0.0001).
     2. HCV prevalence at baseline was 71.0% (269/379), and total HCV seroconversion was 31.63 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 22.95-40.32). HCV incidence per 100 person-years declined first then rose at the fourth follow-up year, from 42.07 in 2002-2003 (95% CI: 27.02-57.12) to 31.65 in 2003-2004 (95% CI: 13.74-49.56) to 15.59 in 2004-2005 (95% CI: 1.92-29.25) then to 20.08 in 2005-2006 (95% CI: 0.40-39.76). Drug injection in the past 3 months>7 times per week (RR, 8.30; 95% CI, 4.70-14.68; PO.0001) was significantly associated with HCV seroincidence.
     3. HBsAg prevalence at baseline was 16.9% (64/379), and HBsAg incidence was 11.24 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.30-14.19), decreasing 14.16 in 2002-2003 (95% CI: 8.91-19.40) to 9.15 in 2003-2004 (95% CI: 4.36-13.94) to 8.97 in 2004-2005 (95% CI: 3.11-14.82), then rising to 10.68 during 2005-2006 (95% CI: 1.32-20.04). In multivariate Poisson regression model, drug injection in the past 3 months≥7 times/week (RR, 6.62: 95% CI: 3.85-11.38; P<0.0001) and syphilis infection (RR, 2.16; 95% CI: 1.22-3.82; P=0.0086) were significantly associated with HBsAg seroconversion.
     4. Syphilis prevalence was 15.3% (58/379) at the baseline and total seroconversion in this cohort is 4.15 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.49-5.82), decreasing from 6.04 in 2002-2003 (95% CI: 2.76-9.32) to 3.18 in 2003-2004 (95% CI: 0.64-5.73) to 0.87 in 2004-2005 (95% CI: 0-2.58), then rising to 6.75 in 2005-2006 (95% CI: 0.13-13.36). In multivariate Poisson regression, female (RR, 4.09; 95% CI, 1.79-9.34; P=0.0008), and married or cohabited (RR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.19-5.92, P=0.0173) were significantly associated with syphilis seroconversion.
     5. During the 48-month follow-up period, cohort retention rate was 59.2% (197 of 333). Multivariate Logistic regression model showed that factors significantly contributed to cohort retention included appearing at the 6-month follow-up visit (OR, 4.01; 95% CI, 2.35-6.84; P<0.0001), and junior high school or lower (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.31-3.40; P=0.0020). Reduction trend in sharing needles or syringes in the past 3 months was obvious. However, unprotected sexual behaviors were less amenable to change.
     6. A total of 45 deaths were found during the 4-year follow-up study. The Mortality rate of this cohort was 32.96 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 23.33-42.59), decreasing from 77.32/1000 person-years at the first year (95%CI: 48.68-105.95), to 32.06/1000 person-years at the second year(95%CI: 13.12-51.01), to 15.27/1000 person-years at the third year (95% CI: 1.88-28.65), to 3.01/1000 person-years at the forth year (95% CI: 0-8.90). Among 45 deaths, 68.9% (N=31) died of heroin overdoses. Total overdose mortality is 22.89/1000 person-years (95% CI: 14.83-30.95), declining by year from 42.07 (95% CI: 27.02-57.12), to 31.65 (95% CI: 13.74-49.56), to 15.59 (95% CI: 1.92-29.25), to 3.01 (95% CI:0-8.90), respectively. The mean age of overdose death is 30.5±6.2 years. In the final Cox regression model drug injection in the past 3 months>7 times per week (hazard ratio (HR), 3.69; 95% CI: 1.96, 6.94; P<0.0001) were found to be associated with all-causes mortality, and≥10 year history of heroin use (HR, 2.53; 95% CI: 1.19, 5.39; P=0.0161), and drug injection in the past 3 months>7 times per week (HR, 3.60; 95% CI: 1.70, 7.66; P=0.0009) were found to be associated with overdose-specific mortality in the final Cox regression model.
     7. In three cross-sectional studies among IDUs, the prevalence of drug injection past 3 months≥7 times per week (2007 vs. 2004, adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 0.35; 95% CI, 0.24-0.51, P<0.01) and having shared needles and syringes past 3 months (2007 vs. 2004, AOR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.78, P<0.01) showed decreasing trends, but the trends of risk sexual behaviors have no significant changes.
     CONCLUSIONS
     1. Our study showed the rapid transmission of HIV, HCV, HBsAg and syphilis among IDUs in Sichuan Province, China. By reducing risky behaviors related to drug injection and sexual practices, HIV, HCV, HBsAg and syphilis seroincidence are decreasing in the first three years. However, effective risk reduction is not risk elimination. HIV, HCV, HBsAg and syphilis seroincidence are rising at the fourth year. Substantial 'residual' injection and sexual risk behavior is likely to remain even after the great majority of IDUs are aware of AIDS, hepatitis C, hepatitis B, and syphilis and have taken steps to reduce risk behavior.
     2. The main reasons for loss of follow-up in study cohort included a high rate of incarceration and early death; most of these deaths resulted from overdose of illicit drugs. Cohort retention among IDUs with junior high school or lower and not appearing at the 6-month follow-up visit was low in this cohort. Follow-up of the study cohort is still ongoing. The retention strategies are to be reexamined and revised to increase the retention rate, and thereby minimize potential selection bias.
     3. Heroin overdose could rapidly be becoming a significant contributor to premature mortality among drug users in Xichang County, Sichuan Province. Future studies should be conducted to focus on fatal and no-fatal overdose and contributed factors among IDUs to provide targeted interventions in reducing unnatural mortality, especially increasing attraction and retention of drug users to methadone maintenance treatment (MMT).
     4. The results of our three cross-sectional studies among IDUs at the same area showed that drug injection in the past 3 months and having shared needles and syringes have been declining, but the unprotected sexual behaviors have no obvious changes.
引文
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