内地与香港CEPA的贸易效应分析
|
摘要
当前,区域经济一体化的进程不断加快,东亚地区区域经济合作的发展势头迅猛。据WTO统计,目前,世界各国签署的各种区域经济合作协定已经达到340多个,其中有90%是在过去10年里建立的,各国都试图通过参加区域经济合作以更好地改善国际贸易条件,争取最大利益。中国作为世界舞台上正在崛起的重要力量,虽然对外经济贸易往来发展迅速,成就举世瞩目,但参与区域或双边自由贸易安排却比较少。对此,我国也应该顺应区域化的发展潮流,积极推动和参与区域和双边经贸合作。
《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(Closer EconomicPartnership Arrangement,以下简称CEPA)是中国内地签署的第一个自由贸易协议性质的文件。自从2003年6月CEPA签订以来,短短四年间,又有四个补充协议先后签订,已经历经5个发展阶段。作为一个高标准的自由贸易协议,CEPA内容丰富,领域广泛。与其它自由贸易协议相比,CEPA在2年内就完成了货物贸易的降税过程,全部实行零关税;在服务贸易38个领域实行更加开放的措施;在贸易投资便利化9个领域做出全面合作的安排,为内地参与其它双边自由贸易区积累了丰富的经验,起到了开创性的作用。考察CEPA的贸易效应,既有利于正确评估其实施的效果,为寻求下一步合作的方向和重点提供帮助,同时也为建立内地、香港、澳门、台湾“大中华经济圈”,以及中国进一步与其它国家和地区建立自由贸易区提供可兹借鉴的经验。
论文共分为六个部分。前两部分阐述了选题的原因、意义,并对前人的研究成果进行了回顾。第三部分介绍了CEPA的基本内容、特点,以及CEPA框架下内地与香港的贸易状况。作为一个灵活性极强的协议,CEPA的内容不断扩展,在货物贸易、服务贸易及贸易投资便利化三个方面采取了多项措施,促进了内地和香港经济的发展。第四部分对CEPA的贸易效应进行了理论分析,认为CEPA带来了明显的贸易创造效应。第五部分是对CEPA贸易效应的实证分析,通过运用区内贸易比重、Balassa模型以及衡量贸易效应稳定性的显性比较优势指数、贸易专门化指数等方法,得出CEPA的建立呈现贸易创造效应而且比较稳定的结论。在文章的结尾部分,对CEPA的未来发展提出了有针对性的政策建议。
文章的创新之处主要有两点。第一,结合CEPA不同于一般自由贸易区的特点,综合运用国际经济学、一体化经济学的分析方法,对其贸易创造和贸易转移效应进行了理论分析。第二,在贸易效应实证分析部分,论文不仅借鉴Balassa模型,利用最新数据进行分析,而且把服务贸易纳入研究框架中,更加贴合CEPA发展趋势。
Nowadays, the process of free trade areas is growing faster, and the regional economic cooperation in East Asia is becoming closer and closer. According to WTO statistics, up to now, more than 340 regional economic cooperation agreements have been subscribed in the world, with 90% done during the past 10 years. All the countries are attempting to join in regional cooperation in order to improve the terms of international trade and gain more benefits. After 30 years' reforming and opening to the world, China has gained great achievements, while she only joined in few free trade areas. As a more and more important role in the world, Chins also should conform to the trend of regional integration and promote the regional and bilateral economical and trade cooperation.
Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA for short, the same below) is the first document subscribed by mainland of China, which began in June, 2003. It has experienced five stages in the four years. As a free trade agreement with higher standard, a lot of measures on commodity trade, service trade and trade and investment liberalization have been taken effectively, which not only has promoted bilateral trade and economic development, but also have supplied mainland with rich experience in joining free trade areas. By reviewing the trade effects of CEPA, we can not only appraise the impact of CEPA correctly and help to seek further cooperation, but also obtain some useful information to establish "Great China Economic Sphere" and develop more free trade agreements with other countries and regions in the world.
This paper is composed of six parts. After basic introduction about significances of the topic and a brief review of the previous studies in the first two parts, the main contents and characters of CEPA were listed in the third part, as well as the trade status between mainland and Hong Kong. In the fourth part, an academic analysis about CEPA was done, with a conclusion of obvious trade creation effect. In the fifth part, an empirical analysis was done by calculating regional trade percent, usingBalassa model and calculating Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and TSC, with a similar conclusion. At last, some suggestions on CEPA in the future were given.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows. On the first hand, on base of the different features of CEPA, referring to the methods in international economics and integration economics, this paper gave an academic analysis about CEPA. Secondly, in the part of empirical analysis, the most updated data was used as well as service trade was involved.
《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(Closer EconomicPartnership Arrangement,以下简称CEPA)是中国内地签署的第一个自由贸易协议性质的文件。自从2003年6月CEPA签订以来,短短四年间,又有四个补充协议先后签订,已经历经5个发展阶段。作为一个高标准的自由贸易协议,CEPA内容丰富,领域广泛。与其它自由贸易协议相比,CEPA在2年内就完成了货物贸易的降税过程,全部实行零关税;在服务贸易38个领域实行更加开放的措施;在贸易投资便利化9个领域做出全面合作的安排,为内地参与其它双边自由贸易区积累了丰富的经验,起到了开创性的作用。考察CEPA的贸易效应,既有利于正确评估其实施的效果,为寻求下一步合作的方向和重点提供帮助,同时也为建立内地、香港、澳门、台湾“大中华经济圈”,以及中国进一步与其它国家和地区建立自由贸易区提供可兹借鉴的经验。
论文共分为六个部分。前两部分阐述了选题的原因、意义,并对前人的研究成果进行了回顾。第三部分介绍了CEPA的基本内容、特点,以及CEPA框架下内地与香港的贸易状况。作为一个灵活性极强的协议,CEPA的内容不断扩展,在货物贸易、服务贸易及贸易投资便利化三个方面采取了多项措施,促进了内地和香港经济的发展。第四部分对CEPA的贸易效应进行了理论分析,认为CEPA带来了明显的贸易创造效应。第五部分是对CEPA贸易效应的实证分析,通过运用区内贸易比重、Balassa模型以及衡量贸易效应稳定性的显性比较优势指数、贸易专门化指数等方法,得出CEPA的建立呈现贸易创造效应而且比较稳定的结论。在文章的结尾部分,对CEPA的未来发展提出了有针对性的政策建议。
文章的创新之处主要有两点。第一,结合CEPA不同于一般自由贸易区的特点,综合运用国际经济学、一体化经济学的分析方法,对其贸易创造和贸易转移效应进行了理论分析。第二,在贸易效应实证分析部分,论文不仅借鉴Balassa模型,利用最新数据进行分析,而且把服务贸易纳入研究框架中,更加贴合CEPA发展趋势。
Nowadays, the process of free trade areas is growing faster, and the regional economic cooperation in East Asia is becoming closer and closer. According to WTO statistics, up to now, more than 340 regional economic cooperation agreements have been subscribed in the world, with 90% done during the past 10 years. All the countries are attempting to join in regional cooperation in order to improve the terms of international trade and gain more benefits. After 30 years' reforming and opening to the world, China has gained great achievements, while she only joined in few free trade areas. As a more and more important role in the world, Chins also should conform to the trend of regional integration and promote the regional and bilateral economical and trade cooperation.
Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA for short, the same below) is the first document subscribed by mainland of China, which began in June, 2003. It has experienced five stages in the four years. As a free trade agreement with higher standard, a lot of measures on commodity trade, service trade and trade and investment liberalization have been taken effectively, which not only has promoted bilateral trade and economic development, but also have supplied mainland with rich experience in joining free trade areas. By reviewing the trade effects of CEPA, we can not only appraise the impact of CEPA correctly and help to seek further cooperation, but also obtain some useful information to establish "Great China Economic Sphere" and develop more free trade agreements with other countries and regions in the world.
This paper is composed of six parts. After basic introduction about significances of the topic and a brief review of the previous studies in the first two parts, the main contents and characters of CEPA were listed in the third part, as well as the trade status between mainland and Hong Kong. In the fourth part, an academic analysis about CEPA was done, with a conclusion of obvious trade creation effect. In the fifth part, an empirical analysis was done by calculating regional trade percent, usingBalassa model and calculating Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and TSC, with a similar conclusion. At last, some suggestions on CEPA in the future were given.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows. On the first hand, on base of the different features of CEPA, referring to the methods in international economics and integration economics, this paper gave an academic analysis about CEPA. Secondly, in the part of empirical analysis, the most updated data was used as well as service trade was involved.
引文
[1]商务视频网http://video.mofcom.gov.cn/class__onile01067952.html.
[2]中国新闻网http://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/hgjj/news/2007/12-25/1114630.shtml。
[3]2003年10月签署的《内地与澳门关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》同样简称“CEPA”.除特别指出外,本文提及的“CEPA”均指《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安捧》。
[1]Dominick Salvatore,"International Economics".Tsinghua University Press,2004,PP321-322.
[2]曾华群:“论内地与香港CEPA之性质”,《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》,2004年第6期。
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第34页。
[1]Bela Balassa,"Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market",The Economic Journal,Vol.77,No.305.(Mar.,1967),P1.
[2]The same above,P2.
[1]刘英奎:“北京WTO事务中心专家详析CEPA”,《时代经贸》,2003年第2期,第64-67页。
[1]俞肇熊、王坤:“CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景”,《世界经济研究》,2007年第6期,第81页。
[1]数据来源:中国证券报,http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20070123/01131172129.shtml.
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第19-22页,第31-34页。
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第35页。
[1]骆各蓓:“CEPA框架下的服务贸易开放评析”,《国际贸易问题》,2006年第10期,第69页。
[1]张婕、许振燕:“CEPA贸易创造和贸易转移效应的实证分析”,《亚太经济》,2007年第1期,第79页。
[1]俞肇熊、王坤:“CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景”,《世界经济研究》,2007年第6期,第85页。
[1]中国投资网http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI/tzfu/rdwt/CEPA/t20070927_85161.htm.
[2]网址为http://www.tid.gov.hk/tc_chi/cepa/index.html.
[1]Corden.W.M(1974),"Trade Policy and Economic Welfare",Oxford:Clarendon Press.
[2]Dominiek Salvatore(2004),"International Economics(The eighth edition)".Peking:Tsinghua University Press.
[3]Jacob Viner(1950),"The Customs Union Issue".New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
[4]Jan Tmbergen(1963),"Shaping the World Economy",New York:Twentieth Century Fund.
[5]Kemp,Murray(1969),"A Contribution to the General Equilibrium Theory of Preferential Trading".Amsterdam:North-Holland.
[6]Meade,James(1955),"The Theory of Customs Unions".Amsterdam:North Holland.
[7]Adams,R.,Dee,P.,Gali,J.,MeGuire,G.(2003),"The trade and investment effects of preferential trading arrangements:old and new evidence",Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper,May.
[8]Aitken,N.D.(1973),"The effect of the EEC and EFTA on European trade:a temporal cross-section analysis",American Economic Review,Mar.
[9]Albert H.Imlah(1951),"Review:Customs Unions",The Journal of Economic History,Vol.11,No.1.
[10]Alexandre Larnfalussy(1963),"Intra-European Trade,and the Competitive Position of the E.E.C.",The Manchester Statistical Society,March 13.
[11]Baldwin,R.(2006),"The euros's trade effects",Working paper No.594,European Central Bank,March.
[12]Bela Balassa(1963),"European Integration:Problems and Issues",The American Economic Review,May.
[13]Bela Balassa(1967),"Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market",The Economic Journal,Mar.
[14] B. L. Bentick (1963), "Estimating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion", The Economic Journal, Jun.
[15] Brown, D. K., Kiyota, K., Stern, R. M. (2005), "Computational analysis of the U.S. FTAs with Central America, Australia, and Morocco", The World Economy, 28.
[16] CIE (Centre for International Economics)(2004), "Economic analysis of AUSFTA: impact of the bilateral free trade agreement with the United States", Canberra.
[17] CIE (Centre for International Economics) (2001), "Economic impact of an Australia-United States Free Trade Area", Canberra.
[18] Emanuel Ornelas (2005), "Trade creating free trade areas and the undermining of multilateralism", European Economic Review, 49.
[19] Hossen Askari (1974), "A Comment on Empirical Estimates of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion", The Economic Journal, Jun.
[20] Kimberly A. Clausing (2001), "Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement", The Canadian Journal of Economics, Aug.
[21] L.B. Krause (1963), "European Economic Integration and the United States", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May.
[22] Levy, P. (1997), "A political-economic analysis of free trade agreements", American Economic Review, 87.
[23] L.H.Janssen (1964), "Free Trade, Protection and Customs Union", The Journal of Political Economy, Apr.
[24] Lipsey, Richard (1960), "The Theory of Customs Unions: A General Survey", Economic Journal, Sep.
[25] Lloyd, P., & Maclaren, D. (2004), "Gains and losses from regional trading agreements: a survey", Economic Record, 80.
[26] Mahinda Siriwardana (2006), "The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation", www.elsevier.com/locate/eer.
[27] Mordechai E. Kreinin (1961), "Trade creation and diversion by the St. Lawrence Seaway: notes and book reviews", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Aug.
[28] Panagariya, Arvind & Rodrik, Dani (1993), "Political-Economy Arguments for a Uniform Tariff',International Economic Review,Jul.
[29]P.J.Verdoorn(1954),"A Customs Union for Western Europe-Advantages and Feasibility",World Politics,Jul.
[30]Redding,Stephen(1999),"Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade",Oxford Economics Paper,51.
[31]R.L.Major(1962),"The Common Market:Production and Trade",National Institute Economic Review,Aug.
[32]Robert A.Mundell(1962),"Reviewed Work:Free Trade,Protection and Customs Union by L.H.Janssen",The American Economic Review,Jun.
[33]Salvador Gil-Pareja,Rafael Llorca-Vivero,Jose Antonio Martinez-Serrano (2007),"Trade effects of monetary agreements:evidence for OECD countries",www.elsevier.com/locate/eer.
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译.国际一体化经济学[M].上海:上海译文出版社,2001年4月.
[2]大卫·格林纳韦主编,冯雷译.国际贸易前沿问题[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2000年1月.
[3]张瑞清,崔和瑞主编.计量经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2005年9月.
[4]张晓峒主编.计量经济学基础[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2005年5月.
[5]巴曙松.解读CEPA条款[J].金融经济,2003(10).
[6]陈广汉,曾奕.CEPA对内地香港生产者服务贸易影响的理论分析[J].经济学家,2005(2).
[7]冯敏红.CEPA零关税效应解读[J].对外经贸实务,2003(12).
[8]林江,夏育松.CEPA效应下香港与内地贸易流量的实证分析[J].广东社会科学.2004(6).
[9]刘翔峰.CEPA对陆港经济融合的促进作用[J].当代亚太,2004(6).
[10]刘英奎.北京WTO事务中心专家详析CEPA[J].时代经贸,2003(2).
[11]骆念蓓.CEPA框架下的服务贸易开放评析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(10).
[12]屈韬,李善民.CEPA对两地制造业发展的影响[J].国际经贸探索,2004(4).
[13]田贞余.我国大陆与香港地区贸易的引力模型分析[J].财经科学,2005(3).
[14]王惠珍.CEPA效应分析[J].华东经济管理,2004(4).
[15]俞肇熊,王坤.CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景[J].世界经济研究,2007(6)
[16]俞肇熊,王坤.CEPA对香港和内地经济一体化的影响[J].宏观经济研究,2006(6).
[17]曾华群.论内地与香港CEPA之性质[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(6).
[18]曾奕.浅析WTO区域经济安排规则--谦论对内地与港澳建立自由贸易区的启示[J].南方经济,2002(8).
[19]张德修.论CEPA的主要特点与战略意义[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(5).
[20]张婕,许振燕.CEPA贸易创造和贸易转移效应的实证分析[J].亚太经济,2007(1).
[21]张仁寿.CEPA条件下香港现代服务业发展的新趋势[J].统计研究,2006(11).
[22]张天桂.内地与香港CEPA经济效应的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005(11).
[23]中山大学中国第三产业研究中心课题组.CEPA背景下广东服务业的对外开放[J].广东社会科学,2005(4).
[24]周忠菲.从CEPA看中国四方一体化--一项基于区域经济合作视角的分析[J].亚太经济,2005(5).
[25]胡俊芳.中日韩自由贸易区贸易效果的实证分析[D].万方数据库.
[26]李昌武.CEPA与大陆香港经贸关系研究[D].万方数据库.
[27]史智宇.中国东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究[D].万方数据库.
[28]任寿根.中国建立内地港澳自由贸易区的理论基础与战略选择.http://finance.sina.com.cn.
[2]中国新闻网http://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/hgjj/news/2007/12-25/1114630.shtml。
[3]2003年10月签署的《内地与澳门关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》同样简称“CEPA”.除特别指出外,本文提及的“CEPA”均指《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安捧》。
[1]Dominick Salvatore,"International Economics".Tsinghua University Press,2004,PP321-322.
[2]曾华群:“论内地与香港CEPA之性质”,《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》,2004年第6期。
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第34页。
[1]Bela Balassa,"Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market",The Economic Journal,Vol.77,No.305.(Mar.,1967),P1.
[2]The same above,P2.
[1]刘英奎:“北京WTO事务中心专家详析CEPA”,《时代经贸》,2003年第2期,第64-67页。
[1]俞肇熊、王坤:“CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景”,《世界经济研究》,2007年第6期,第81页。
[1]数据来源:中国证券报,http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20070123/01131172129.shtml.
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第19-22页,第31-34页。
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译:《国际一体化经济学》,上海译文出版社,2001年4月,第35页。
[1]骆各蓓:“CEPA框架下的服务贸易开放评析”,《国际贸易问题》,2006年第10期,第69页。
[1]张婕、许振燕:“CEPA贸易创造和贸易转移效应的实证分析”,《亚太经济》,2007年第1期,第79页。
[1]俞肇熊、王坤:“CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景”,《世界经济研究》,2007年第6期,第85页。
[1]中国投资网http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI/tzfu/rdwt/CEPA/t20070927_85161.htm.
[2]网址为http://www.tid.gov.hk/tc_chi/cepa/index.html.
[1]Corden.W.M(1974),"Trade Policy and Economic Welfare",Oxford:Clarendon Press.
[2]Dominiek Salvatore(2004),"International Economics(The eighth edition)".Peking:Tsinghua University Press.
[3]Jacob Viner(1950),"The Customs Union Issue".New York:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
[4]Jan Tmbergen(1963),"Shaping the World Economy",New York:Twentieth Century Fund.
[5]Kemp,Murray(1969),"A Contribution to the General Equilibrium Theory of Preferential Trading".Amsterdam:North-Holland.
[6]Meade,James(1955),"The Theory of Customs Unions".Amsterdam:North Holland.
[7]Adams,R.,Dee,P.,Gali,J.,MeGuire,G.(2003),"The trade and investment effects of preferential trading arrangements:old and new evidence",Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper,May.
[8]Aitken,N.D.(1973),"The effect of the EEC and EFTA on European trade:a temporal cross-section analysis",American Economic Review,Mar.
[9]Albert H.Imlah(1951),"Review:Customs Unions",The Journal of Economic History,Vol.11,No.1.
[10]Alexandre Larnfalussy(1963),"Intra-European Trade,and the Competitive Position of the E.E.C.",The Manchester Statistical Society,March 13.
[11]Baldwin,R.(2006),"The euros's trade effects",Working paper No.594,European Central Bank,March.
[12]Bela Balassa(1963),"European Integration:Problems and Issues",The American Economic Review,May.
[13]Bela Balassa(1967),"Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market",The Economic Journal,Mar.
[14] B. L. Bentick (1963), "Estimating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion", The Economic Journal, Jun.
[15] Brown, D. K., Kiyota, K., Stern, R. M. (2005), "Computational analysis of the U.S. FTAs with Central America, Australia, and Morocco", The World Economy, 28.
[16] CIE (Centre for International Economics)(2004), "Economic analysis of AUSFTA: impact of the bilateral free trade agreement with the United States", Canberra.
[17] CIE (Centre for International Economics) (2001), "Economic impact of an Australia-United States Free Trade Area", Canberra.
[18] Emanuel Ornelas (2005), "Trade creating free trade areas and the undermining of multilateralism", European Economic Review, 49.
[19] Hossen Askari (1974), "A Comment on Empirical Estimates of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion", The Economic Journal, Jun.
[20] Kimberly A. Clausing (2001), "Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement", The Canadian Journal of Economics, Aug.
[21] L.B. Krause (1963), "European Economic Integration and the United States", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May.
[22] Levy, P. (1997), "A political-economic analysis of free trade agreements", American Economic Review, 87.
[23] L.H.Janssen (1964), "Free Trade, Protection and Customs Union", The Journal of Political Economy, Apr.
[24] Lipsey, Richard (1960), "The Theory of Customs Unions: A General Survey", Economic Journal, Sep.
[25] Lloyd, P., & Maclaren, D. (2004), "Gains and losses from regional trading agreements: a survey", Economic Record, 80.
[26] Mahinda Siriwardana (2006), "The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation", www.elsevier.com/locate/eer.
[27] Mordechai E. Kreinin (1961), "Trade creation and diversion by the St. Lawrence Seaway: notes and book reviews", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Aug.
[28] Panagariya, Arvind & Rodrik, Dani (1993), "Political-Economy Arguments for a Uniform Tariff',International Economic Review,Jul.
[29]P.J.Verdoorn(1954),"A Customs Union for Western Europe-Advantages and Feasibility",World Politics,Jul.
[30]Redding,Stephen(1999),"Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade",Oxford Economics Paper,51.
[31]R.L.Major(1962),"The Common Market:Production and Trade",National Institute Economic Review,Aug.
[32]Robert A.Mundell(1962),"Reviewed Work:Free Trade,Protection and Customs Union by L.H.Janssen",The American Economic Review,Jun.
[33]Salvador Gil-Pareja,Rafael Llorca-Vivero,Jose Antonio Martinez-Serrano (2007),"Trade effects of monetary agreements:evidence for OECD countries",www.elsevier.com/locate/eer.
[1]彼得·罗布森著,戴炳然等译.国际一体化经济学[M].上海:上海译文出版社,2001年4月.
[2]大卫·格林纳韦主编,冯雷译.国际贸易前沿问题[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2000年1月.
[3]张瑞清,崔和瑞主编.计量经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2005年9月.
[4]张晓峒主编.计量经济学基础[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2005年5月.
[5]巴曙松.解读CEPA条款[J].金融经济,2003(10).
[6]陈广汉,曾奕.CEPA对内地香港生产者服务贸易影响的理论分析[J].经济学家,2005(2).
[7]冯敏红.CEPA零关税效应解读[J].对外经贸实务,2003(12).
[8]林江,夏育松.CEPA效应下香港与内地贸易流量的实证分析[J].广东社会科学.2004(6).
[9]刘翔峰.CEPA对陆港经济融合的促进作用[J].当代亚太,2004(6).
[10]刘英奎.北京WTO事务中心专家详析CEPA[J].时代经贸,2003(2).
[11]骆念蓓.CEPA框架下的服务贸易开放评析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(10).
[12]屈韬,李善民.CEPA对两地制造业发展的影响[J].国际经贸探索,2004(4).
[13]田贞余.我国大陆与香港地区贸易的引力模型分析[J].财经科学,2005(3).
[14]王惠珍.CEPA效应分析[J].华东经济管理,2004(4).
[15]俞肇熊,王坤.CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景[J].世界经济研究,2007(6)
[16]俞肇熊,王坤.CEPA对香港和内地经济一体化的影响[J].宏观经济研究,2006(6).
[17]曾华群.论内地与香港CEPA之性质[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(6).
[18]曾奕.浅析WTO区域经济安排规则--谦论对内地与港澳建立自由贸易区的启示[J].南方经济,2002(8).
[19]张德修.论CEPA的主要特点与战略意义[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(5).
[20]张婕,许振燕.CEPA贸易创造和贸易转移效应的实证分析[J].亚太经济,2007(1).
[21]张仁寿.CEPA条件下香港现代服务业发展的新趋势[J].统计研究,2006(11).
[22]张天桂.内地与香港CEPA经济效应的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005(11).
[23]中山大学中国第三产业研究中心课题组.CEPA背景下广东服务业的对外开放[J].广东社会科学,2005(4).
[24]周忠菲.从CEPA看中国四方一体化--一项基于区域经济合作视角的分析[J].亚太经济,2005(5).
[25]胡俊芳.中日韩自由贸易区贸易效果的实证分析[D].万方数据库.
[26]李昌武.CEPA与大陆香港经贸关系研究[D].万方数据库.
[27]史智宇.中国东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究[D].万方数据库.
[28]任寿根.中国建立内地港澳自由贸易区的理论基础与战略选择.http://finance.sina.com.cn.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |