系统动力学在陕北主导产业开发中的应用
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摘要
提高农业人口占绝大多数的陕北地区农民的生活水平、改善农民的生活状况、增加各农业县市的财政收入一直以来是陕北各级政府和农民共同关心的大事，而充分合理的开发和利用具有自然优势的四大主导产业(烟业、果业、林业和畜牧业)将是解决这一问题的最有效途径之一。论文作为陕西省科技厅软科学研究课题“陕北主导产业发展的可拓决策研究”的子课题“主导产业系统规划模型及预测”部分，正是基于这一考虑而立项的。
论文在占有大量资料的基础上，利用系统动力学的研究方法，通过对主导产业开发系统的分析最终预测出主导产业未来一定年限内各子项目每年的开发规模及变化趋势情况，从而对上面的问题提供一种解决思路。
论文属应用基础研究。论文首先介绍了本课题的背景，对陕北主导产业的现状进行分析；然后对论文的技术路线—系统动力学作了基本的介绍；论文在第四章提出了陕北主导产业开发的因果关系图及SD流程图和模型方程；最后以洛川苹果开发为实例进行模拟，预测出洛川近10年的苹果开发规模和发展趋势。
本论文的实际意义在于提出了陕北主导产业开发的系统动力学模型，通过此模型的计算机仿真模拟，预测出产业开发中各子项目的开发规模及其相关变量的发展趋势。论文所得出的仿真预测结果既能为陕北政府在制定主导产业开发政策和计划目标方面提供理论支持与科学依据，也能为农民在具体产业的种植和经营等方面提供科学合理的指导，同时论文所提出的陕北主导产业系统动力学模型也可以应用到其他省市主导产业的开发系统或单个产业项目的开发中，对其具有借鉴意义。
本论文的理论意义在于通过系统动力学模拟模型为复杂的社会经济系统实际问题提出一种较为可行的理论解决方法，另外用系统动力学对主导产业开发进行研究，在该领域既是一种新的尝试，也是对系统动力学实际应用的一种拓展。
For long time .raising the living standards of the peasants in Shan-bei district which most of the people are peasants , improving their life state and increasing the fiscal revenues of those counties are matters of interest to both the state and peasant .While how to utilize fully and reasonable the four leading industries (the tobacco industry, fruit industry, forestry and animal industry) which have natural advantages is one of the most effective way to solve the problem. The thesis is based on the Shanxi's soft-scientific item "the decision-making research of the development of the leading industries in Shan-bei region"
At present, because there are many problems, such as random and blindness, during the peasant of Shan-bei develop the leading industries, the thesis will offer a kind of methods to settle those problems by utilizing the system dynamics to analysis the system of leading industry and predict the development scale and variation tendency of each sub-project in the future every years finally.
The type of the thesis is application fundament . The thesis is divided into five parts: above all, the following problems are brought forward in the preface: the background of the thesis, the meaning of research , research method and the present situation of research in domestic and international. Among chapter one the actual sources of the leading industry are analyzed to provide the circumstantial basic materials for the next systems analysis. Afterwards the technological route to the thesis ?system dynamics is introduced in chapter two. Causality picture and SD flow chart and model equation of the leading industry of Shan-bei has been
designed in Chapter three of thesis .The scale and trend of the luochuan apple in the next l0years are forecasted in chapter four by stimulating the luochuan apple development.
The actual meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward the system dynamics model of the leading industry in Shan-bei, and predicting the development scales of sub-project and trends of relevant variable of it through computer simulation .The result not only can offer theory support and scientific basis for Shan-bei government when they make policy and plan goal for the leading industry but also can offer the rational and scientific guide in such aspects as planting and management of the concrete industry for peasant. The SD model of the leading industry in Shan-bei too can be applied to the development of the leading industry or individual industry of other provinces at the same time.
The theory meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward a kind of comparative feasible theory solution for the practical problem of the complicated social economy system through the simulation of SD model. Through researching the leading industry with system dynamics in addition, it is a kind of new try in this field; it is also a kind of expansion for the practical application of system dynamics.
论文在占有大量资料的基础上，利用系统动力学的研究方法，通过对主导产业开发系统的分析最终预测出主导产业未来一定年限内各子项目每年的开发规模及变化趋势情况，从而对上面的问题提供一种解决思路。
论文属应用基础研究。论文首先介绍了本课题的背景，对陕北主导产业的现状进行分析；然后对论文的技术路线—系统动力学作了基本的介绍；论文在第四章提出了陕北主导产业开发的因果关系图及SD流程图和模型方程；最后以洛川苹果开发为实例进行模拟，预测出洛川近10年的苹果开发规模和发展趋势。
本论文的实际意义在于提出了陕北主导产业开发的系统动力学模型，通过此模型的计算机仿真模拟，预测出产业开发中各子项目的开发规模及其相关变量的发展趋势。论文所得出的仿真预测结果既能为陕北政府在制定主导产业开发政策和计划目标方面提供理论支持与科学依据，也能为农民在具体产业的种植和经营等方面提供科学合理的指导，同时论文所提出的陕北主导产业系统动力学模型也可以应用到其他省市主导产业的开发系统或单个产业项目的开发中，对其具有借鉴意义。
本论文的理论意义在于通过系统动力学模拟模型为复杂的社会经济系统实际问题提出一种较为可行的理论解决方法，另外用系统动力学对主导产业开发进行研究，在该领域既是一种新的尝试，也是对系统动力学实际应用的一种拓展。
For long time .raising the living standards of the peasants in Shan-bei district which most of the people are peasants , improving their life state and increasing the fiscal revenues of those counties are matters of interest to both the state and peasant .While how to utilize fully and reasonable the four leading industries (the tobacco industry, fruit industry, forestry and animal industry) which have natural advantages is one of the most effective way to solve the problem. The thesis is based on the Shanxi's soft-scientific item "the decision-making research of the development of the leading industries in Shan-bei region"
At present, because there are many problems, such as random and blindness, during the peasant of Shan-bei develop the leading industries, the thesis will offer a kind of methods to settle those problems by utilizing the system dynamics to analysis the system of leading industry and predict the development scale and variation tendency of each sub-project in the future every years finally.
The type of the thesis is application fundament . The thesis is divided into five parts: above all, the following problems are brought forward in the preface: the background of the thesis, the meaning of research , research method and the present situation of research in domestic and international. Among chapter one the actual sources of the leading industry are analyzed to provide the circumstantial basic materials for the next systems analysis. Afterwards the technological route to the thesis ?system dynamics is introduced in chapter two. Causality picture and SD flow chart and model equation of the leading industry of Shan-bei has been
designed in Chapter three of thesis .The scale and trend of the luochuan apple in the next l0years are forecasted in chapter four by stimulating the luochuan apple development.
The actual meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward the system dynamics model of the leading industry in Shan-bei, and predicting the development scales of sub-project and trends of relevant variable of it through computer simulation .The result not only can offer theory support and scientific basis for Shan-bei government when they make policy and plan goal for the leading industry but also can offer the rational and scientific guide in such aspects as planting and management of the concrete industry for peasant. The SD model of the leading industry in Shan-bei too can be applied to the development of the leading industry or individual industry of other provinces at the same time.
The theory meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward a kind of comparative feasible theory solution for the practical problem of the complicated social economy system through the simulation of SD model. Through researching the leading industry with system dynamics in addition, it is a kind of new try in this field; it is also a kind of expansion for the practical application of system dynamics.
引文
[1] 王其藩．系统动力学[M]．北京：清华大学出版社，1988．4
[2] 苏懋康．系统动力学原理及其应用[M]．上海：上海交通大学出版社，1988
[3] 胡玉奎．系统动力学—战略与策略实验室[M]．浙江：浙江人民出版社，1989
[4] 王其藩．高级系统动力学[M]．北京：清华大学出版社，1995
[5] Forrester J W. Urban Dynamics [M]. the M.I.T. Press Massachuwetts, 1969
[6] 陕西省统计年鉴[M]．陕西：中国统计出版社，1990-2002
[7] 陕西省经济统计年鉴[M]．陕西：中国统计出版社，1998-2001
[8] 倪建华．陈绥阳等．区域资源开发模型系统[M]．北京：中国科学技术出版社，1992
[9] 李农．王其藩．我国宏观经济SD模型与模拟[J]．系统工程理论与实际，2001，9：1-6
[10] 赵黎明．税收经济系统动力模型研究[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2002，8：49-54
[11] 胡雨村．沈岐平．香港住宅产业发展的系统动力学研究[J]．系统工程理论与实际，2001，7：32-53
[12] 康．农业复杂巨系统的特点与全国粮食产预测研究[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2002，6：108-112
[13] 英．系统动力学在城市蔬菜工程中的应用[J]．系统工程理论与实践，1999，9：125-130
[14] 丙智．我国苹果生产现状与发展[J]．西北园艺，2002，1：6-7
[15] 陕北在线http://www.shanbei.net.
[16] 洛川金土地红苹果网http://www.apple88.com
[17] 陕西农村经济信息网http://www.sare.com.cn
[18] 陕西经济信息网http://www.sei.sn.cn
[19] 中国果品信息网http://www.china fruit. com
[20] 中国经济信息网http://www.cei.gov.cn
[21] 陕西省政府公众信息网http://www.shaanxi.gov.cn
[22] 中国兴农网http://www.cnan.gov.cn
[2] 苏懋康．系统动力学原理及其应用[M]．上海：上海交通大学出版社，1988
[3] 胡玉奎．系统动力学—战略与策略实验室[M]．浙江：浙江人民出版社，1989
[4] 王其藩．高级系统动力学[M]．北京：清华大学出版社，1995
[5] Forrester J W. Urban Dynamics [M]. the M.I.T. Press Massachuwetts, 1969
[6] 陕西省统计年鉴[M]．陕西：中国统计出版社，1990-2002
[7] 陕西省经济统计年鉴[M]．陕西：中国统计出版社，1998-2001
[8] 倪建华．陈绥阳等．区域资源开发模型系统[M]．北京：中国科学技术出版社，1992
[9] 李农．王其藩．我国宏观经济SD模型与模拟[J]．系统工程理论与实际，2001，9：1-6
[10] 赵黎明．税收经济系统动力模型研究[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2002，8：49-54
[11] 胡雨村．沈岐平．香港住宅产业发展的系统动力学研究[J]．系统工程理论与实际，2001，7：32-53
[12] 康．农业复杂巨系统的特点与全国粮食产预测研究[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2002，6：108-112
[13] 英．系统动力学在城市蔬菜工程中的应用[J]．系统工程理论与实践，1999，9：125-130
[14] 丙智．我国苹果生产现状与发展[J]．西北园艺，2002，1：6-7
[15] 陕北在线http://www.shanbei.net.
[16] 洛川金土地红苹果网http://www.apple88.com
[17] 陕西农村经济信息网http://www.sare.com.cn
[18] 陕西经济信息网http://www.sei.sn.cn
[19] 中国果品信息网http://www.china fruit. com
[20] 中国经济信息网http://www.cei.gov.cn
[21] 陕西省政府公众信息网http://www.shaanxi.gov.cn
[22] 中国兴农网http://www.cnan.gov.cn