湖北省农村生物质能源产业布局与发展研究
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摘要
随着工业化、城镇化进程加快,消费结构的持续升级,我国能源需求呈刚性增长；受国内资源保障能力和环境容量制约以及全球性能源安全和应对气候变化影响,资源环境对经济社会发展的约束日趋强化。我国农村生物质资源丰富,但长久以来未得到有效利用,原料的稳定供应问题成为生物质能产业在我国能否持续发展的重要问题。因此,本文以湖北省农村生物质能源产业为研究对象,以能源安全与生态保护为研究背景,运用循环经济理论、可持续发展理论、产业布局理论等相关理论,通过构建和应用ARIMA预测模型、基于多目标规划的产业规模控制模型、基于GIS的生物质能源加工企业可视化选址模型,以及农村生物质能源产业发展综合效益评价体系,对生物质资源约束下和可用于生物质能源产业的新增土地面积约束下的湖北省农村生物质能源产业布局与发展问题进行分析研究。通过对欧盟生物质能源产业的实施经验与做法的梳理,提出湖北省生物质能源产业发展的政策建议。本文的研究内容和主要结论如下：
第一：分析湖北省农村可再生能源开发利用现状。研究发现：(1)户用沼气和大型沼气工程在湖北省得到了很大的发展,但在不断开发利用的过程中,也暴露出了一些问题。沼气技工缺乏,技术支持不足；沼气供应季节性不平衡；“三改”工作不彻底；旧池、病池缺乏改造更新。(2)湖北省农作物秸秆资源总量很大,但能源化利用比例很小,不到可利用资源量的1%。秸秆收集储运体系不完善、成本价格高、政策不配套、技术不成熟等是制约秸秆能源化开发利用的主要原因。(3)采用“非粮”性生物质原料进行生物质液态燃料生产是产业发展的焦点。湖北省政府正着力部署以红薯和植物纤维素为原料的生物燃料乙醇生产,建立了部分原料基地,但未进入实际生产阶段。
第二：运用近30年时间序列数据,对湖北省农村生物质能源潜力进行分门别类评估。结果表明,湖北省生物质能源禀赋潜力巨大,预计2015年,湖北省农村生物质总蕴藏量达87229.96万吨,其中农业生物质达4554.85万吨,林业达65219.62万吨,畜禽粪便达17637.94万吨,生物质资源在理想状态下转换成生物质能源的数量将达到47776.63万吨折标准煤。随着技术的不断进步,养殖业等相关产业的稳步发展,这些数字有可能进一步增大。湖北省具备产业化开发利用农村生物质能源的基础。
第三：对农村生物质能源产业发展进行综合效益评价。构建一个综合效益评价体系,利用层次分析法对湖北省农村生物质能源产业的综合效益进行评估,结论如下：经济效益对总目标的权重为0.3213,生态效益对总目标的权重为0.4484,社会效益对总目标的权重为0.2302。定量评价结果表明,固化成型技术的综合效益明显高于生物质热解气化和大型沼气工程,固化成型燃料有理由成为湖北省未来生物制能源产业发展的主打方向。不同地区的生物质热解气化企业综合效益得分相近,但在细化指标上有所差别,同样的情况也出现在实施大型沼气工程的两家企业中。可以认为,生物质热解气化与生物制发酵制气技术已经成熟,适宜于规模化推广利用。细微差别产生的最可能的原因是原料的差别。今后需进一步加强不同原料生物质综合利用共性、关键技术的组织攻关和技术集成。
第四：农村生物质能源产业布局设计。通过用湖北省生物质资源的人均占有量和单位面积集聚量两个指标对湖北省各地市资源分布密度进行了统计和分析,结合湖北省地形分布的自然特点,对湖北省农村生物质能源产业进行了区域性布局设计,共将其分成了粮食主产区、棉花主产区、养殖业发达区和山区四大区域,并进行了具体设计。
第五：结合湖北省产业发展目标,对湖北省农村生物质能源开发利用规模控制进行了建模运算与分析。分别假定未来湖北省总工矿建设可用土地的2%和10%可用于生物质能源产业,考虑湖北省生物质资源蕴藏量约束,对湖北省未来各区域的生物质产业发展规模进行了规划。研究表明,两种不同产业规模下的生物质能源获得量和温室气体减排量都很大。2%土地约束下,可以获得的生物质能源总量为258.4888万吨标准煤,与此同时,可以有效减少以CO2为主的温室气体减排量1063.6545万吨。10%土地约束下,可以获得的生物质能源总量为1448.2615万吨标准煤,温室气体减排量可达5306.9379万吨。在此基础上,探讨了基于GIS的可视化选址决策模型与方法,为湖北省生物质能源的决策制订提供理论参考。
第六：对欧盟生物质能源产业的实施经验进行了梳理,进而形成了对湖北省农村生物质能源产业布局与产业发展的对策建议。在优势区域发展多种生态循环农业、促进生物质固化成型燃料技术的推广使用、推进秸秆沼气、秸秆气化和生物质发电对于实现多目标下的产业布局设计方案都是有利的。与此同时,政府部门制定相关的补贴、激励政策,对生物质能源产业进行引导和扶持,也必将对该产业能否顺利走过发展初期有着非常重要的作用与影响。体系内的管理、产业链的衔接、原料的可持续稳定供应都是需要重视的问题。
With the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization, the continuing upgrade of consumption structure, China's energy demand was in rigid growth. With the constraints of both domestic resources supporting capacity and environmental capacity, and the impacts of global energy security and climate change, the constraints of resource and environmental have been increasingly strengthening. Biomass resources are rich in Chinese rural areas, but have not exploited for the past long time. Stable supply of raw materials has become the important issue of the sustainable development of bio-energy industry in China. Therefore, taking the bio-energy industry as research object, and the energy security and environmental protection as research background, this paper analyses the layout and development of bio-energy industry in Hubei rural areas under the constraints of available biomass resources and available land, by using ARIMA predict model, industrial scale controlling model based on multi-objective planning, a GIS-based visualized location-chosen model for bio-energy processing enterprises, and an integrated effectiveness evaluation system for the development of bio-energy industry. Combing the implementation experience and practice of EU's bio-energy industry, the policy recommendations have been put forward for the development of bio-energy industry in Hubei province. The main contents and conclusions are as the follows:
Firstly, the status quo of the renewable energy development and utilization in Hubei rural areas has been analyzed. The study shows that:(1) household biogas and large-scale biogas project in Hubei province has been greatly developed. However, some problems were also exposed in the process of the development and utilization, including the lack of biogas craftsmen, lack of technical support, seasonable imbalance of the biogas supply, the incomplete work of "three reforms", the lack of refresh of disease and old pools;(2) while crop straw resources are rich in Hubei, only a very limited proportion of them have been used to convert bio-energy, which is lass then1%. The main constraints of using crop straw to convert bio-energy are the imperfect collect and transport system, high costs, inadequate policies, immature technologies, and so on;(3) using the non grain materials to produce liquid biofuels is the main point during the development of bio-energy industry. Now the Hubei government is arranging the production of bioethanol from sweet potato and lignocellulosic biomass. Some raw material bases have been constructed, but the large-scale production has not been started.
Secondly, the potential of different kinds of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas has been evaluated, according to the data of the past30years. The results show that Hubei province has a huge potential in terms of biomass resources. That is to say the amount of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas will be872,299,600tons in2015. Specifically, this includes45,548,500tons of agricultural residues,652,196,200tons of woody biomass and176,379,400tons of livestock manure. Theoretically, all the biomass resources in Hubei can be converted into bio-energy which is equal to477,766,300tons of standard coal. With the development of technology and relevant industry, such as breeding industry, these figures may be increased. After all, Hubei acquired the condition to develop the agri-bioenergy industry.
Thirdly, the integrated benefit of developing bio-energy industry in rural area has been evaluated. During the study an integrated evaluation system has been created and the analysis hierarchy process has been used to evaluate the integrated benefit of agri-bioenergy industry in Hubei. Based on the study mentioned above, we can come to the following conclusion:when considering the general objective, the economic benefit weights0.3213, the ecological benefit weights0.4484and the social benefits weights0.2302. The quantitative assessment result indicates that because the integrated benefits of solidification technology obviously outweigh the benefits of biomass gasification technology and large-scale biogas engineering, it is reasonable to set the densification briquetting fuel as the main developing direction in the future of Hubei bioenergy industry. The biomass gasification enterprises in different regions achieved the similar score during integrated benefit evaluation, but in the detailed index there were some slight differences. The same thing also happened between two large-scale biogas engineering enterprises. Therefore the biomass gasification technology and biogas production by biomass fermentation technology are well developed and can be put into large-scale popularization and application. The material diversity may account for the slight differences in detailed index. In the future, the research work needs to force on the comprehensive utilization of different kinds of biomass material, and the breakthrough and integration of key technologies.
Fourthly, rural bio-energy industry layout has been designed. According to per capital and per unit area possession of biomass resources, this study counted and analysed the biomass resources density in different cities of Hubei. And considering the topographical distribution characters of Hubei province, we designed the corresponding bio-energy industry layout. In according to the layout, Hubei province has been divided into four parts:grain production area, cotton production area, animal breeding area and mountain area, and then made the detailed design.
Fifthly, combined with the industry development goals, Hubei rural bio-energy developing scale has been analyzed and calculated through mathematic modeling. Then taking2percent or10percent of the total available land for industrial construction as constraints, the future scale of the development of biomass industry in different regions of Hubei Province has been planned. The result shows that no matter in which condition, the amount of produced bio-energy is huge and the effect of reducing the greenhouse gas emission is obvious. Under the land restriction of2%, the prospective bio-energy amount is equal to2,584,888tons of standard coal, and at the same time the reduction of greenhouse gas emission will be10,636,545tons. However, when the land restriction is10%, the prospective bio-energy amount will be14,482,615tons of standard coal, and the greenhouse emission decrease will be53,049,379tons. Based on the calculation mentioned above, the paper discussed the GIS-based visualized location-chosen model and method, and provided the theory reference to Hubei bio-energy decision-making.
Sixthly, the implementation experiences and practice of EU's bio-energy industry have been analysed, and then the recommendations about Hubei bio-energy industry distribution and development have been proposed. Developing circular agriculture in appropriate regions, promoting the application of densification briquetting fuel, and popularizing straw biogas, straw gasification and electricity produced by biomass can help the industry layout scheme come true. By the way, whether the government could find suitable subsidies and stimulus, and guide and support the bio-energy development or not play a determine role on the initial stage of bio-energy industry development. The connection between the industry chains, the management within the industry system and the stable supply of raw materials are also need to be considered seriously.
第一：分析湖北省农村可再生能源开发利用现状。研究发现：(1)户用沼气和大型沼气工程在湖北省得到了很大的发展,但在不断开发利用的过程中,也暴露出了一些问题。沼气技工缺乏,技术支持不足；沼气供应季节性不平衡；“三改”工作不彻底；旧池、病池缺乏改造更新。(2)湖北省农作物秸秆资源总量很大,但能源化利用比例很小,不到可利用资源量的1%。秸秆收集储运体系不完善、成本价格高、政策不配套、技术不成熟等是制约秸秆能源化开发利用的主要原因。(3)采用“非粮”性生物质原料进行生物质液态燃料生产是产业发展的焦点。湖北省政府正着力部署以红薯和植物纤维素为原料的生物燃料乙醇生产,建立了部分原料基地,但未进入实际生产阶段。
第二：运用近30年时间序列数据,对湖北省农村生物质能源潜力进行分门别类评估。结果表明,湖北省生物质能源禀赋潜力巨大,预计2015年,湖北省农村生物质总蕴藏量达87229.96万吨,其中农业生物质达4554.85万吨,林业达65219.62万吨,畜禽粪便达17637.94万吨,生物质资源在理想状态下转换成生物质能源的数量将达到47776.63万吨折标准煤。随着技术的不断进步,养殖业等相关产业的稳步发展,这些数字有可能进一步增大。湖北省具备产业化开发利用农村生物质能源的基础。
第三：对农村生物质能源产业发展进行综合效益评价。构建一个综合效益评价体系,利用层次分析法对湖北省农村生物质能源产业的综合效益进行评估,结论如下：经济效益对总目标的权重为0.3213,生态效益对总目标的权重为0.4484,社会效益对总目标的权重为0.2302。定量评价结果表明,固化成型技术的综合效益明显高于生物质热解气化和大型沼气工程,固化成型燃料有理由成为湖北省未来生物制能源产业发展的主打方向。不同地区的生物质热解气化企业综合效益得分相近,但在细化指标上有所差别,同样的情况也出现在实施大型沼气工程的两家企业中。可以认为,生物质热解气化与生物制发酵制气技术已经成熟,适宜于规模化推广利用。细微差别产生的最可能的原因是原料的差别。今后需进一步加强不同原料生物质综合利用共性、关键技术的组织攻关和技术集成。
第四：农村生物质能源产业布局设计。通过用湖北省生物质资源的人均占有量和单位面积集聚量两个指标对湖北省各地市资源分布密度进行了统计和分析,结合湖北省地形分布的自然特点,对湖北省农村生物质能源产业进行了区域性布局设计,共将其分成了粮食主产区、棉花主产区、养殖业发达区和山区四大区域,并进行了具体设计。
第五：结合湖北省产业发展目标,对湖北省农村生物质能源开发利用规模控制进行了建模运算与分析。分别假定未来湖北省总工矿建设可用土地的2%和10%可用于生物质能源产业,考虑湖北省生物质资源蕴藏量约束,对湖北省未来各区域的生物质产业发展规模进行了规划。研究表明,两种不同产业规模下的生物质能源获得量和温室气体减排量都很大。2%土地约束下,可以获得的生物质能源总量为258.4888万吨标准煤,与此同时,可以有效减少以CO2为主的温室气体减排量1063.6545万吨。10%土地约束下,可以获得的生物质能源总量为1448.2615万吨标准煤,温室气体减排量可达5306.9379万吨。在此基础上,探讨了基于GIS的可视化选址决策模型与方法,为湖北省生物质能源的决策制订提供理论参考。
第六：对欧盟生物质能源产业的实施经验进行了梳理,进而形成了对湖北省农村生物质能源产业布局与产业发展的对策建议。在优势区域发展多种生态循环农业、促进生物质固化成型燃料技术的推广使用、推进秸秆沼气、秸秆气化和生物质发电对于实现多目标下的产业布局设计方案都是有利的。与此同时,政府部门制定相关的补贴、激励政策,对生物质能源产业进行引导和扶持,也必将对该产业能否顺利走过发展初期有着非常重要的作用与影响。体系内的管理、产业链的衔接、原料的可持续稳定供应都是需要重视的问题。
With the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization, the continuing upgrade of consumption structure, China's energy demand was in rigid growth. With the constraints of both domestic resources supporting capacity and environmental capacity, and the impacts of global energy security and climate change, the constraints of resource and environmental have been increasingly strengthening. Biomass resources are rich in Chinese rural areas, but have not exploited for the past long time. Stable supply of raw materials has become the important issue of the sustainable development of bio-energy industry in China. Therefore, taking the bio-energy industry as research object, and the energy security and environmental protection as research background, this paper analyses the layout and development of bio-energy industry in Hubei rural areas under the constraints of available biomass resources and available land, by using ARIMA predict model, industrial scale controlling model based on multi-objective planning, a GIS-based visualized location-chosen model for bio-energy processing enterprises, and an integrated effectiveness evaluation system for the development of bio-energy industry. Combing the implementation experience and practice of EU's bio-energy industry, the policy recommendations have been put forward for the development of bio-energy industry in Hubei province. The main contents and conclusions are as the follows:
Firstly, the status quo of the renewable energy development and utilization in Hubei rural areas has been analyzed. The study shows that:(1) household biogas and large-scale biogas project in Hubei province has been greatly developed. However, some problems were also exposed in the process of the development and utilization, including the lack of biogas craftsmen, lack of technical support, seasonable imbalance of the biogas supply, the incomplete work of "three reforms", the lack of refresh of disease and old pools;(2) while crop straw resources are rich in Hubei, only a very limited proportion of them have been used to convert bio-energy, which is lass then1%. The main constraints of using crop straw to convert bio-energy are the imperfect collect and transport system, high costs, inadequate policies, immature technologies, and so on;(3) using the non grain materials to produce liquid biofuels is the main point during the development of bio-energy industry. Now the Hubei government is arranging the production of bioethanol from sweet potato and lignocellulosic biomass. Some raw material bases have been constructed, but the large-scale production has not been started.
Secondly, the potential of different kinds of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas has been evaluated, according to the data of the past30years. The results show that Hubei province has a huge potential in terms of biomass resources. That is to say the amount of biomass resources in Hubei rural areas will be872,299,600tons in2015. Specifically, this includes45,548,500tons of agricultural residues,652,196,200tons of woody biomass and176,379,400tons of livestock manure. Theoretically, all the biomass resources in Hubei can be converted into bio-energy which is equal to477,766,300tons of standard coal. With the development of technology and relevant industry, such as breeding industry, these figures may be increased. After all, Hubei acquired the condition to develop the agri-bioenergy industry.
Thirdly, the integrated benefit of developing bio-energy industry in rural area has been evaluated. During the study an integrated evaluation system has been created and the analysis hierarchy process has been used to evaluate the integrated benefit of agri-bioenergy industry in Hubei. Based on the study mentioned above, we can come to the following conclusion:when considering the general objective, the economic benefit weights0.3213, the ecological benefit weights0.4484and the social benefits weights0.2302. The quantitative assessment result indicates that because the integrated benefits of solidification technology obviously outweigh the benefits of biomass gasification technology and large-scale biogas engineering, it is reasonable to set the densification briquetting fuel as the main developing direction in the future of Hubei bioenergy industry. The biomass gasification enterprises in different regions achieved the similar score during integrated benefit evaluation, but in the detailed index there were some slight differences. The same thing also happened between two large-scale biogas engineering enterprises. Therefore the biomass gasification technology and biogas production by biomass fermentation technology are well developed and can be put into large-scale popularization and application. The material diversity may account for the slight differences in detailed index. In the future, the research work needs to force on the comprehensive utilization of different kinds of biomass material, and the breakthrough and integration of key technologies.
Fourthly, rural bio-energy industry layout has been designed. According to per capital and per unit area possession of biomass resources, this study counted and analysed the biomass resources density in different cities of Hubei. And considering the topographical distribution characters of Hubei province, we designed the corresponding bio-energy industry layout. In according to the layout, Hubei province has been divided into four parts:grain production area, cotton production area, animal breeding area and mountain area, and then made the detailed design.
Fifthly, combined with the industry development goals, Hubei rural bio-energy developing scale has been analyzed and calculated through mathematic modeling. Then taking2percent or10percent of the total available land for industrial construction as constraints, the future scale of the development of biomass industry in different regions of Hubei Province has been planned. The result shows that no matter in which condition, the amount of produced bio-energy is huge and the effect of reducing the greenhouse gas emission is obvious. Under the land restriction of2%, the prospective bio-energy amount is equal to2,584,888tons of standard coal, and at the same time the reduction of greenhouse gas emission will be10,636,545tons. However, when the land restriction is10%, the prospective bio-energy amount will be14,482,615tons of standard coal, and the greenhouse emission decrease will be53,049,379tons. Based on the calculation mentioned above, the paper discussed the GIS-based visualized location-chosen model and method, and provided the theory reference to Hubei bio-energy decision-making.
Sixthly, the implementation experiences and practice of EU's bio-energy industry have been analysed, and then the recommendations about Hubei bio-energy industry distribution and development have been proposed. Developing circular agriculture in appropriate regions, promoting the application of densification briquetting fuel, and popularizing straw biogas, straw gasification and electricity produced by biomass can help the industry layout scheme come true. By the way, whether the government could find suitable subsidies and stimulus, and guide and support the bio-energy development or not play a determine role on the initial stage of bio-energy industry development. The connection between the industry chains, the management within the industry system and the stable supply of raw materials are also need to be considered seriously.
引文
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