中国城镇化发展机制
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摘要
在推进城镇化进程中,农民是重要的微观基础。农民是否愿意迁移,是中国城镇化进程能否高效持续推进的关键。农村企业主,同时也是特殊农民,他们是否做出搬迁企业的决策将对城镇化产生双重影响。
本文以农村居民和农村企业为研究对象,利用浙江、四川、河南3个省级层面以及10个县级层面(陕西长安、山东寿光、内蒙古武川、四川沿滩、安徽淮南、海南琼海、黑龙江齐齐哈尔、浙江吴兴、江西瑞昌、贵州湄潭)的实地调查数据,共获得1325份未迁移农民样本、960份已迁移农民样本、1981份农民就业意愿样本、105份未迁移企业样本、88份已迁移企业样本,采用成本收益分析方法,运用二元Logistic模型、Probit模型、多元有序Logistic模型进行验证,另外,利用世界银行公开数据库提供的171个国家的面板数据,构建城镇化发展的DSR理论模型基础上进行面板数据分析。从理论和实证上回答了宏观规律视野和微观主体视角下中国城镇化发展的6个关键问题：(1)工业化、农业现代化对城镇化发展起到何种作用?(2)未迁移农民迁移意愿的影响因素有哪些?(3)已迁移农民继续迁移意愿的影响因素又有哪些?(4)农民就业意愿的动因和影响因素分别是什么?(5)未迁移企业愿不愿意迁移,有哪些影响因素?(6)已迁移企业是否愿意继续迁移,影响因素又有哪些?
对上述6个问题的回答形成了本研究的主要结论：
(1)工业化、农业现代化均与城镇化存在正向显著关系,工业化、农业现代化均对城镇化发展起到积极的促进作用,这也说明了工业化、城镇化、农业现代化是一种协调演进关系,城镇化进程中同步推进“工业化、城镇化、农业现代化”非常重要。
(2)对于未迁移农民,年龄、在读学生数、户籍政策、受教育年限、家庭年总收入、打工年限对迁移意愿有显著影响。其中,浙江、四川与河南三地的差异显著。如：由于城市的教育质量对农民的吸引力不及城市教育成本对农民的推力,加上城市对迁移农民的教育歧视,这些可能造成了家庭中在读学生越多,越不愿意迁移；虽然户籍制度有所放开,但是对城镇化的影响还是存在的,户籍政策对农民意味着能够享受农村的户籍福利,但同时也带来了融入城市的壁垒,因此户籍政策对农民迁移意愿有显著的负面影响。打工年限虽然在不控制省份虚拟变量时并不显著,但是控制省份变量后,打工年限也显著,因为打工年限越长,越有可能在城市获得相对稳定的工作,更能适应城市生活,在城市中也可能逐步建立自己的“圈子”。
(3)对于已搬迁到城镇的居民,年龄、家庭年收入、在读学生数、打工年限等对其继续迁移意愿产生不同程度影响,且地区差异显著。如：年龄对继续前移意愿有负向显著影响,可见迁移到城镇的居民对继续前移,仍然受到年龄的影响,因此政府应加大养老保障；四川和河南两地的模型变量的显著性及变量符号方向与三地汇总样本的结果基本一致,但是在读学生在浙江、河南两省显著,浙江反向相关,而河南正向相关,可见在读学生仍然是影响迁移的重要原因,而方向不同,可能是反映了被调查人员对当地教育的满意度。
(4)对于择业的农民,其就业意愿的主要影响因素包括年龄、是否有在读的小孩、拥有土地面积、性别、所在村自然村数量、所在村是否是新农村示范村。如年龄越大,务农的可能性越大,不管从外出的机会、能力还是意愿上都不如年轻人,这也与其他实证研究的观点非常一致；家庭中的小孩对农民外出务工产生了一定的“枷锁效应”和“拉回效应”,加上留守儿童面临的诸多问题,家庭小孩在农民就业行为的决策上起到了重要的决定影响。自然村规模越大,在本地就业机会可能会更多,因此自然村对农民就业意愿影响显著。
(5)对于未进城的企业,土地价格、运输成本、集群环境、与政府关系、税收政策都对其迁移意愿产生重要影响。如：企业在开创期,一般企业和政府之间关系密切,但到了企业快速发展期,不少中小企业主为了“逃离”乡村所广泛存在的不正常的政企关系的束缚,而不得不离开自己藉以“起家”的“乡土”,可见与政府关系对企业搬迁意愿存在负相关关系。土地价格与企业搬迁意愿存在负相关关系,这也是我国不少沿海发达地区中小企业向中西部地区迁移企业的一种重要原因。随着企业不断成长,其进城的一个重要目的就是需要完善的产业集聚环境,越是新兴性企业,对产业的集群环境更看重,集群环境与企业进城意愿存在负相关关系,这也和一些学者的研究结论相近。
(6)对于已进城的企业,企业类型、土地价格政策、集群环境对其继续迁移意愿产生重要影响。已进城企业进一步迁移意愿受到企业类型的影响,两者存在负相关关系,因此这也给地方政府在考虑吸引什么类型的企业迁入时提供一些有益启示。而土地价格与集群环境对于已进城企业来说,存在正相关关系,这一点正好与未进城企业相反,本地集群环境越好,地价越优惠,企业回迁的可能性越小,这也与一些研究者的观点类似。
总体而言,本文结合理论分析和实证研究,从不同迁移主体的迁移或再迁移的视角,分析了中国城镇化发展机制的微观基础。本文在以下方面拓展了相关经典理论的适用范围：首先,通过采用舒尔茨人力资本的思想构建成本收益理论模型,并采用二元Logistic模型对我国东、中、西部三个典型省份农村未迁移农民样本进行总体和分省回归分析。基于农民回流的相关理论,运用二元Logistic模型对已迁移农民继续迁移意愿进行回归分析,然后进一步对未迁移农民样本和已迁移农民样本进行多元有序Logistic模型的实证分析。其次,基于劳动力转移相关理论,运用Probit模型实证分析了农民就业意愿的动因和影响因素。最后,基于企业迁移的相关理论,运用二元Logistic模型实证分析农村未迁移企业样本的迁移意愿,基于企业回迁的相关理论,进一步对农村未迁移企业样本和已迁移企业样本的迁移意愿进行了多元有序Logistic模型分析。
In the process of urbanization, Peasants are the basic factor from the view of microeconomics. Whether Farmers are willing to migrate to cities or not is the key of acceleration of Chinese rural urbanization. And, rural entrepreneurs, special groups of the farmers, whether they voluntarily relocate their enterprises will have a significant impact on the urbanization as well.
This paper researched on current residents and enterprises in rural area, with the field data of three provinces of Henan, Sichuan, Zhejiang and10counties (Chang'an in Shanxi province; Shouguang in Shandong; Wuchuan in Inner Mongolia; Yantan in Sichuan; Huainan in Anhui; Qionghai in Hainan; Qiqihar in Heilongjiang; Wuxing in Zhejiang; Ruichang in Jiangxi and Mae Tam in Guizhou). Had received samples from1325unmigrated farmers;960migrated farmers;1981farmers'employment intention;105staying enterprises; and88relocated enterprises, the paper adopted cost-benefit analysis method, set up the measuring model, binary Logistic model, binary choice Probit model and multivariate Logistic model. In addition, the paper used panel data of171countries by the World Bank public database, built the DSR theory of urbanization development model and binary Logistic model to do the empirical analysis. From macroscopic view and microscopic perspective, with theoretical and empirical perspective, the thesis identified six key problems in the development of Chinese rural urbanization:(1) How the industrialization and modernization of agriculture would affect urbanization developments?(2) What factors would influence the intention of the migration for the farmers?(3) What factors would influence the intention to continue the migration for migrated farmers?(4) What are the motivation and influence factors of farmers'employment intention?(5) What factors would influence the intention to relocate staying enterprises?(6) What factors would influence the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises?
The main conclusions of this article are from the answers of the six questions above:
(1) Industrialization and modernization of Agriculture has positive significant relationship with rural urbanization. Agricultural industrialization and modernization plays positive role in the development of urbanization. That is to say, Industrialization urbanization and agricultural modernization are coordinated with each others. It is important that urbanization synchronized industrialization and agricultural modernization.
(2) Age, numbers of students in the family, household registration policy, years of the education, annual income of the Family and working years as migrated workers had a significant impact on the migration of staying farmers. There are significant differences in Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan. Such as:Due to city education costs make education quality less attractive to farmers and education discrimination of migrated farmers, would make the family with many students less intention to move. Although the household registration policy has unregulated to some extent, there is still an impact on urbanization. The current household registration system brought farmers as much welfare as barrier. So the household registration policy will have a significant negative impact on migrated farmers. Working years as migrated workers variable is not significant in all provinces, in limited provinces, this variable shows otherwise due to the longer the working years, it is more likely for migrated farmers to obtain relatively stable job in the city, have more chance to adapt city life and gradually establish their own" life".
(3) Age, number of students in the family, annual income of the Family and working years as migrated workers had resulted in different degrees of influences on the migrated farmers'intention of continuing moving and had significant regional differences. Such as:Aging has a significant negative impact on intention of continuing moving of migrated farmers', so the government might reform endowment insurance in China. The variables significances and symbol direction of Sichuan and Henan are basically identical with collected samples of three provinces. The variable of number of students in the family have a significant negative impact in Zhejiang, while have a significant positive impact in Henan, which may be reflected the satisfaction of local education.
(4) The main influence factors of staying farmers' employment behavior included Age, number of students in the family, area of Farmland owned, gender, numbers of villages in the around area, whether the villages they stayed is model villages. For example, the older the farmers are, the greater chance for them to be engaged in farming work, they have no ability and willing to move into cities because of physical conditions, which also very consistent with other empirical researches; Stay-at-home children, who face quite a lot of problems physically and emotionally, definitely are the "chains" to pull back the migrated workers. And bigger size of villages may give more employment opportunities, so the size of villages significantly influence on farmers' employment intention.
(5) Total assets, land price, transportation cost, business environment, tax policy and government relations had great influence on the intention to relocate for staying enterprises. In the starting stage, the enterprises normally have close relationship with the local government. With rapid development, many small and medium-sized business have to escape from this relationship and move to other places. Relations with the local government will have a negative effect on rural enterprise relocation intention. There is a negative correlation relationship between Land prices and enterprises relocation intention, which also explained why a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises moved to the Midwest from coastal developed areas. As the companies grow, the cities have better business environment. The new emerging enterprises are specially focused on business environment. Business environment would have negative impact on enterprise relocation intention. Some research also got similar conclusions.
(6) Business types, Land price and police and business environment had great influence on the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises. Business types would have negative impact on the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises, which inspires the local governments' decisions on moving in enterprises types. Land prices and business environment have a positive impact for relocation enterprises, which is just as opposed for the staying enterprises. The better business environment and the more favorable land price make the smaller possibility for enterprise to move back, which is similar to some researchers'view.
Overall, combined theoretical and empirical research, this thesis analyzed the rural microeconomic foundation of development mechanism of urbanization in China, from the perspective of different migration groups or remigration groups. In this paper, some classic theories applies to broader scopes:First of all, the thesis built cost-benefit theory model through Schultz human capital thoughts, and adopted the binary Logistic model to do an overall and regression analyze of three typical the east, west and central provinces in China. Based on the relative theory of farmers back to hometown and the binary Logistic model, the paper explained the factors why the migrated farmers continued to resettled by regression analysis, and gave an empirical analysis with the multivariate orderly Logistic model of the migrated farmers and staying farmers. Secondly, based on the related theory of labor resettlement and Probit model, the paper empirical analyzed the motivation and influence factors for the rural staying farmers employment intention. Finally, with the enterprise relocation theory and binary Logistic model, the paper gave an empirical analysis of staying enterprise'intention of relocation. Based on the theory of enterprise return and multivariate orderly Logistic model, the paper analyzed the motivation and influence factors for relocated enterprises and staying enterprises.
本文以农村居民和农村企业为研究对象,利用浙江、四川、河南3个省级层面以及10个县级层面(陕西长安、山东寿光、内蒙古武川、四川沿滩、安徽淮南、海南琼海、黑龙江齐齐哈尔、浙江吴兴、江西瑞昌、贵州湄潭)的实地调查数据,共获得1325份未迁移农民样本、960份已迁移农民样本、1981份农民就业意愿样本、105份未迁移企业样本、88份已迁移企业样本,采用成本收益分析方法,运用二元Logistic模型、Probit模型、多元有序Logistic模型进行验证,另外,利用世界银行公开数据库提供的171个国家的面板数据,构建城镇化发展的DSR理论模型基础上进行面板数据分析。从理论和实证上回答了宏观规律视野和微观主体视角下中国城镇化发展的6个关键问题：(1)工业化、农业现代化对城镇化发展起到何种作用?(2)未迁移农民迁移意愿的影响因素有哪些?(3)已迁移农民继续迁移意愿的影响因素又有哪些?(4)农民就业意愿的动因和影响因素分别是什么?(5)未迁移企业愿不愿意迁移,有哪些影响因素?(6)已迁移企业是否愿意继续迁移,影响因素又有哪些?
对上述6个问题的回答形成了本研究的主要结论：
(1)工业化、农业现代化均与城镇化存在正向显著关系,工业化、农业现代化均对城镇化发展起到积极的促进作用,这也说明了工业化、城镇化、农业现代化是一种协调演进关系,城镇化进程中同步推进“工业化、城镇化、农业现代化”非常重要。
(2)对于未迁移农民,年龄、在读学生数、户籍政策、受教育年限、家庭年总收入、打工年限对迁移意愿有显著影响。其中,浙江、四川与河南三地的差异显著。如：由于城市的教育质量对农民的吸引力不及城市教育成本对农民的推力,加上城市对迁移农民的教育歧视,这些可能造成了家庭中在读学生越多,越不愿意迁移；虽然户籍制度有所放开,但是对城镇化的影响还是存在的,户籍政策对农民意味着能够享受农村的户籍福利,但同时也带来了融入城市的壁垒,因此户籍政策对农民迁移意愿有显著的负面影响。打工年限虽然在不控制省份虚拟变量时并不显著,但是控制省份变量后,打工年限也显著,因为打工年限越长,越有可能在城市获得相对稳定的工作,更能适应城市生活,在城市中也可能逐步建立自己的“圈子”。
(3)对于已搬迁到城镇的居民,年龄、家庭年收入、在读学生数、打工年限等对其继续迁移意愿产生不同程度影响,且地区差异显著。如：年龄对继续前移意愿有负向显著影响,可见迁移到城镇的居民对继续前移,仍然受到年龄的影响,因此政府应加大养老保障；四川和河南两地的模型变量的显著性及变量符号方向与三地汇总样本的结果基本一致,但是在读学生在浙江、河南两省显著,浙江反向相关,而河南正向相关,可见在读学生仍然是影响迁移的重要原因,而方向不同,可能是反映了被调查人员对当地教育的满意度。
(4)对于择业的农民,其就业意愿的主要影响因素包括年龄、是否有在读的小孩、拥有土地面积、性别、所在村自然村数量、所在村是否是新农村示范村。如年龄越大,务农的可能性越大,不管从外出的机会、能力还是意愿上都不如年轻人,这也与其他实证研究的观点非常一致；家庭中的小孩对农民外出务工产生了一定的“枷锁效应”和“拉回效应”,加上留守儿童面临的诸多问题,家庭小孩在农民就业行为的决策上起到了重要的决定影响。自然村规模越大,在本地就业机会可能会更多,因此自然村对农民就业意愿影响显著。
(5)对于未进城的企业,土地价格、运输成本、集群环境、与政府关系、税收政策都对其迁移意愿产生重要影响。如：企业在开创期,一般企业和政府之间关系密切,但到了企业快速发展期,不少中小企业主为了“逃离”乡村所广泛存在的不正常的政企关系的束缚,而不得不离开自己藉以“起家”的“乡土”,可见与政府关系对企业搬迁意愿存在负相关关系。土地价格与企业搬迁意愿存在负相关关系,这也是我国不少沿海发达地区中小企业向中西部地区迁移企业的一种重要原因。随着企业不断成长,其进城的一个重要目的就是需要完善的产业集聚环境,越是新兴性企业,对产业的集群环境更看重,集群环境与企业进城意愿存在负相关关系,这也和一些学者的研究结论相近。
(6)对于已进城的企业,企业类型、土地价格政策、集群环境对其继续迁移意愿产生重要影响。已进城企业进一步迁移意愿受到企业类型的影响,两者存在负相关关系,因此这也给地方政府在考虑吸引什么类型的企业迁入时提供一些有益启示。而土地价格与集群环境对于已进城企业来说,存在正相关关系,这一点正好与未进城企业相反,本地集群环境越好,地价越优惠,企业回迁的可能性越小,这也与一些研究者的观点类似。
总体而言,本文结合理论分析和实证研究,从不同迁移主体的迁移或再迁移的视角,分析了中国城镇化发展机制的微观基础。本文在以下方面拓展了相关经典理论的适用范围：首先,通过采用舒尔茨人力资本的思想构建成本收益理论模型,并采用二元Logistic模型对我国东、中、西部三个典型省份农村未迁移农民样本进行总体和分省回归分析。基于农民回流的相关理论,运用二元Logistic模型对已迁移农民继续迁移意愿进行回归分析,然后进一步对未迁移农民样本和已迁移农民样本进行多元有序Logistic模型的实证分析。其次,基于劳动力转移相关理论,运用Probit模型实证分析了农民就业意愿的动因和影响因素。最后,基于企业迁移的相关理论,运用二元Logistic模型实证分析农村未迁移企业样本的迁移意愿,基于企业回迁的相关理论,进一步对农村未迁移企业样本和已迁移企业样本的迁移意愿进行了多元有序Logistic模型分析。
In the process of urbanization, Peasants are the basic factor from the view of microeconomics. Whether Farmers are willing to migrate to cities or not is the key of acceleration of Chinese rural urbanization. And, rural entrepreneurs, special groups of the farmers, whether they voluntarily relocate their enterprises will have a significant impact on the urbanization as well.
This paper researched on current residents and enterprises in rural area, with the field data of three provinces of Henan, Sichuan, Zhejiang and10counties (Chang'an in Shanxi province; Shouguang in Shandong; Wuchuan in Inner Mongolia; Yantan in Sichuan; Huainan in Anhui; Qionghai in Hainan; Qiqihar in Heilongjiang; Wuxing in Zhejiang; Ruichang in Jiangxi and Mae Tam in Guizhou). Had received samples from1325unmigrated farmers;960migrated farmers;1981farmers'employment intention;105staying enterprises; and88relocated enterprises, the paper adopted cost-benefit analysis method, set up the measuring model, binary Logistic model, binary choice Probit model and multivariate Logistic model. In addition, the paper used panel data of171countries by the World Bank public database, built the DSR theory of urbanization development model and binary Logistic model to do the empirical analysis. From macroscopic view and microscopic perspective, with theoretical and empirical perspective, the thesis identified six key problems in the development of Chinese rural urbanization:(1) How the industrialization and modernization of agriculture would affect urbanization developments?(2) What factors would influence the intention of the migration for the farmers?(3) What factors would influence the intention to continue the migration for migrated farmers?(4) What are the motivation and influence factors of farmers'employment intention?(5) What factors would influence the intention to relocate staying enterprises?(6) What factors would influence the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises?
The main conclusions of this article are from the answers of the six questions above:
(1) Industrialization and modernization of Agriculture has positive significant relationship with rural urbanization. Agricultural industrialization and modernization plays positive role in the development of urbanization. That is to say, Industrialization urbanization and agricultural modernization are coordinated with each others. It is important that urbanization synchronized industrialization and agricultural modernization.
(2) Age, numbers of students in the family, household registration policy, years of the education, annual income of the Family and working years as migrated workers had a significant impact on the migration of staying farmers. There are significant differences in Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan. Such as:Due to city education costs make education quality less attractive to farmers and education discrimination of migrated farmers, would make the family with many students less intention to move. Although the household registration policy has unregulated to some extent, there is still an impact on urbanization. The current household registration system brought farmers as much welfare as barrier. So the household registration policy will have a significant negative impact on migrated farmers. Working years as migrated workers variable is not significant in all provinces, in limited provinces, this variable shows otherwise due to the longer the working years, it is more likely for migrated farmers to obtain relatively stable job in the city, have more chance to adapt city life and gradually establish their own" life".
(3) Age, number of students in the family, annual income of the Family and working years as migrated workers had resulted in different degrees of influences on the migrated farmers'intention of continuing moving and had significant regional differences. Such as:Aging has a significant negative impact on intention of continuing moving of migrated farmers', so the government might reform endowment insurance in China. The variables significances and symbol direction of Sichuan and Henan are basically identical with collected samples of three provinces. The variable of number of students in the family have a significant negative impact in Zhejiang, while have a significant positive impact in Henan, which may be reflected the satisfaction of local education.
(4) The main influence factors of staying farmers' employment behavior included Age, number of students in the family, area of Farmland owned, gender, numbers of villages in the around area, whether the villages they stayed is model villages. For example, the older the farmers are, the greater chance for them to be engaged in farming work, they have no ability and willing to move into cities because of physical conditions, which also very consistent with other empirical researches; Stay-at-home children, who face quite a lot of problems physically and emotionally, definitely are the "chains" to pull back the migrated workers. And bigger size of villages may give more employment opportunities, so the size of villages significantly influence on farmers' employment intention.
(5) Total assets, land price, transportation cost, business environment, tax policy and government relations had great influence on the intention to relocate for staying enterprises. In the starting stage, the enterprises normally have close relationship with the local government. With rapid development, many small and medium-sized business have to escape from this relationship and move to other places. Relations with the local government will have a negative effect on rural enterprise relocation intention. There is a negative correlation relationship between Land prices and enterprises relocation intention, which also explained why a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises moved to the Midwest from coastal developed areas. As the companies grow, the cities have better business environment. The new emerging enterprises are specially focused on business environment. Business environment would have negative impact on enterprise relocation intention. Some research also got similar conclusions.
(6) Business types, Land price and police and business environment had great influence on the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises. Business types would have negative impact on the intention to continue the relocation for relocated enterprises, which inspires the local governments' decisions on moving in enterprises types. Land prices and business environment have a positive impact for relocation enterprises, which is just as opposed for the staying enterprises. The better business environment and the more favorable land price make the smaller possibility for enterprise to move back, which is similar to some researchers'view.
Overall, combined theoretical and empirical research, this thesis analyzed the rural microeconomic foundation of development mechanism of urbanization in China, from the perspective of different migration groups or remigration groups. In this paper, some classic theories applies to broader scopes:First of all, the thesis built cost-benefit theory model through Schultz human capital thoughts, and adopted the binary Logistic model to do an overall and regression analyze of three typical the east, west and central provinces in China. Based on the relative theory of farmers back to hometown and the binary Logistic model, the paper explained the factors why the migrated farmers continued to resettled by regression analysis, and gave an empirical analysis with the multivariate orderly Logistic model of the migrated farmers and staying farmers. Secondly, based on the related theory of labor resettlement and Probit model, the paper empirical analyzed the motivation and influence factors for the rural staying farmers employment intention. Finally, with the enterprise relocation theory and binary Logistic model, the paper gave an empirical analysis of staying enterprise'intention of relocation. Based on the theory of enterprise return and multivariate orderly Logistic model, the paper analyzed the motivation and influence factors for relocated enterprises and staying enterprises.
引文
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