B2C电子商务市场价格竞争问题的模型与实证分析
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摘要
在网络经济的研究领域，有关电子商务较传统线下交易效率更高，由此将带来“无摩擦交易”的理论假说曾被普遍接受，按这一假说，可以推导出线上网络销售商的价格水平和价格离散程度应低于线下传统销售商等若干可检验的推论，从市场价格比较的角度对这一假说进行检验由此成为电子商务研究的一个集中热点。
近年来在B2C电子商务市场上，越来越多的传统线下销售商进入电子商务市场，作为兼营线下和线上渠道的多渠道销售商(简称MCRs)，与只在线上销售的纯网络销售商(简称Dotcoms)展开了直接的竞争。针对这一市场发展特征，本文就电子商务市场内部两类销售商之间的价格竞争问题进行了研究。首先，本文采用博弈模型分析的方法，构建了MCRs和Dotcoms之间的市场竞争模型，推导出了两类销售商在网络市场并存的四种市场结构；并求出了销售商的最优定价及其他均衡解。由本文的模型推导可知，有四种参数(其中，包括电子商务市场规模和电子商务渗透率两个市场整体层面的参数；电子商务企业成本和消费者购物时所感知的除价格外的其他成本系数两个销售商企业层面的参数)将影响两类销售商价格水平的高低关系，且随着参数关系的不同，两类销售商的价格高低比较将得到不同的结果。
在充分把握中国B2C电子商务市场的结构性特征的基础上，本文分别选择DC、DV产品(作为实体性产品的代表)和网络订房产品(作为服务性产品的代表)，按照规范的数据收集方法，对近1万个B2C市场价格数据进行的多种统计分析(包括参数和非参数分析)、模型分析(包括计量经济模型和ANOVA模型)结果显示：在两类销售商价格水平的比较上，与“无摩擦交易假说”所推导的结论相反，Dotcoms价格高于MCRs，Dotcoms并没有体现出较更高的效率；在两类销售商价格离散程度的比较上，“无摩擦交易假说”则得到了支持，Dotcoms内部的价格离散程度低于MCRs。
此外，本文还进一步就产品价值高低对电子商务市场价格离散程度的影响进行了研究。针对MP3产品市场上数千个价格数据的分析结果显示，高值产品的价格离散程度小于低值产品，符合“无摩擦交易假说”的推导。
结合有关DC、Dv产品市场和网络订房市场的分析可以发现，本文有关价格离散程度的实证研究均较好地支持了“无摩擦交易假说”，而有关价格水平的研究则基本拒绝了“无摩擦交易假说”。从这个角度看，可以认为：网络电子商务所带来的市场效率的提升，主要体现为销售商价格离散的降低，至于价格水平，则可能受其他因素的影响，并没有带来曾经被人们期望出现的下降。
为对价格竞争的实证分析结果做进一步的探讨，基于本文所构建理论模型的研究结论，本文集中从消费者对网络销售商认知的角度，分析了网络销售商的电子商务网站在内容和网页外观视觉呈现可能存在的不同。一般而言，网站提供的信息、服务等内容越丰富；网页的外观视觉呈现越吸引浏览者，则越可能发挥其吸引网民浏览，并刺激其做出购买决策(从浏览者变成网络消费者)。本文最后构建了一个评估指标体系，以分析判别电子商务网站在网站内容上的不同；进而设计一个针对网页视觉呈现的认知效果的电生理实验，针对样本网站的实验结果显示，两类销售商网站的网页视觉呈现没有显著的差别。无论从价格水平还是网站页面认知效果看，我国B2C电子商务市场上两类零售商存在着一定程度的“同质化竞争”迹象。
整体而言，本文在充分把握既有研究成果的基础上，首先建立了B2C电子商务市场上两类销售商之间价格竞争的理论模型，并推导出两类销售商并存的市场结构，以及各种市场结构下两类销售商的最优定价等均衡解。从推导结果看，该模型能够很好地解释传统的“无摩擦交易理论假说”所无法解释的MCRs价格水平高于Dotcoms等市场现象，在一定程度上深化了对电子商务市场的理论理解。进而本文系统收集了上万个代表性产品的B2C市场价格数据，进行了比较系统和深入的实证分析，得到的实证研究结论不仅可以作为前述理论模型的验证，而且对于深入认识和把握中国高速成长中的电子商务市场具有一定的指导意义。此外，本文在研究方法上广泛采用了统计学、计量经济学、电生理实验等多学科的研究手段，在研究工具上表现出一定程度的多学科交叉的特色。
It is generally accepted that in the research area of online economics, the efficiency of e-commerce is higher that traditional off-line commerce which result in the hypothesis that e-commerce will lead to friction-free commerce. According to this hypothesis, it can be deduced that the price level and the degree of price dispersion are lower for online retailers than traditional offline retailers as well as many other deductions that can be tested. Hence, it is a focus point of e-commerce research to test this hypothesis from the perspective of price.
Recent years, more and more traditional retailers participate in the B2C e-commerce market. The Multi-Channel Retailers (MCRs) who engage in both online and offline channels compete directly with the pure online retailers (Dotcoms) who only develop online business. Focus on this phenomenon, this paper investigates on price competition between these two kinds of retailers in the area of e-commerce market. First, it adopts the method called game model analysis to construct a market competition model of MCRs and Dotcoms, gives out two kinds of retailers' four types of market structure exist in the online market. By using this model, it can be deduced that there are four parameters (including two market layer parameters-the size of the e-commerce market and percentage of e-commerce infiltration together with two retailer enterprise layer parameters-the cost of the e-commerce enterprises and other coefficients excludes price that the consumers apperceive when doing shopping) that influence the price level relationship of two types of retailers. Meanwhile, when compare the prices of two kinds retailers, as the relationship between the parameters is different, it brings on different results.
On the basis of holding the Chinese B2C e-commerce market's structural characteristic sufficiently, we choose DC, DV (as the representation of physical product) and online room reserving (as the representation of service product) respectively, refer to normative data collect method, do statistic analysis (including parameter and non-parameter analysis) and mode analysis (including econometric model and ANOVA model) on almost ten thousand B2C market price data. It shows that: the price compare between the two kinds of retailers is adversely with the reduction of the friction-free commerce hypothesis, Dotcoms' prices are higher that MCRs', Dotcoms does not give out reflection about high efficiency; the price dispersion compare between the two kinds of retailers give support to friction-free commerce hypothesis, Dotcoms' internal price dispersion is lower that MCRs'.
In addition, there is further study about the value of the product influences on the e-commerce market price dispersion. Depend on analysis of thousand price data collected from MP3 market, we conclude that high value products' price dispersion is narrower than low value products' which is consistent with the deduction from friction-free commerce hypothesis.
Combine the analysis of DC,DV market and online room reserving, we can find that the empirical data on price dispersion degree give strong support to friction-free commerce hypothesis. However, the results about price level almost reject the friction-free commerce hypothesis. On this perspective, it can be considered that the efficiency raise comes from e-commerce mainly reflect on that decrease of retailers' price dispersion. As for the price level, it doesn't decline according to people's expectation and there maybe exist other factors that influence it
For further discussing on the empirical analysis results of price competition, based on the conclusions derived from theoretical model, from the angle of consumers' cognition about online retailers, this paper analyzes the possible differences among the online retailers' websites concentrated on the content and the web pages' visual appearance. Generally speaking, the more contents including information and service that websites supply and the more attractive the web pages' visual appearance are, the websites will potentially arrest more website viewer, besides, stimulate them make decision (website viewer turns to online consumer). At last, this paper constructs a evaluate index system in order to distinguish the content differences of e-commerce websites. Sequentially, designs an electric-physiological experiment focus on the cogitation effect of web pages' visual appearance. The results derived from the sample websites' experiment reveal that there is no significant difference between the two types of retailers' websites relate to the web pages' visual appearance.
近年来在B2C电子商务市场上，越来越多的传统线下销售商进入电子商务市场，作为兼营线下和线上渠道的多渠道销售商(简称MCRs)，与只在线上销售的纯网络销售商(简称Dotcoms)展开了直接的竞争。针对这一市场发展特征，本文就电子商务市场内部两类销售商之间的价格竞争问题进行了研究。首先，本文采用博弈模型分析的方法，构建了MCRs和Dotcoms之间的市场竞争模型，推导出了两类销售商在网络市场并存的四种市场结构；并求出了销售商的最优定价及其他均衡解。由本文的模型推导可知，有四种参数(其中，包括电子商务市场规模和电子商务渗透率两个市场整体层面的参数；电子商务企业成本和消费者购物时所感知的除价格外的其他成本系数两个销售商企业层面的参数)将影响两类销售商价格水平的高低关系，且随着参数关系的不同，两类销售商的价格高低比较将得到不同的结果。
在充分把握中国B2C电子商务市场的结构性特征的基础上，本文分别选择DC、DV产品(作为实体性产品的代表)和网络订房产品(作为服务性产品的代表)，按照规范的数据收集方法，对近1万个B2C市场价格数据进行的多种统计分析(包括参数和非参数分析)、模型分析(包括计量经济模型和ANOVA模型)结果显示：在两类销售商价格水平的比较上，与“无摩擦交易假说”所推导的结论相反，Dotcoms价格高于MCRs，Dotcoms并没有体现出较更高的效率；在两类销售商价格离散程度的比较上，“无摩擦交易假说”则得到了支持，Dotcoms内部的价格离散程度低于MCRs。
此外，本文还进一步就产品价值高低对电子商务市场价格离散程度的影响进行了研究。针对MP3产品市场上数千个价格数据的分析结果显示，高值产品的价格离散程度小于低值产品，符合“无摩擦交易假说”的推导。
结合有关DC、Dv产品市场和网络订房市场的分析可以发现，本文有关价格离散程度的实证研究均较好地支持了“无摩擦交易假说”，而有关价格水平的研究则基本拒绝了“无摩擦交易假说”。从这个角度看，可以认为：网络电子商务所带来的市场效率的提升，主要体现为销售商价格离散的降低，至于价格水平，则可能受其他因素的影响，并没有带来曾经被人们期望出现的下降。
为对价格竞争的实证分析结果做进一步的探讨，基于本文所构建理论模型的研究结论，本文集中从消费者对网络销售商认知的角度，分析了网络销售商的电子商务网站在内容和网页外观视觉呈现可能存在的不同。一般而言，网站提供的信息、服务等内容越丰富；网页的外观视觉呈现越吸引浏览者，则越可能发挥其吸引网民浏览，并刺激其做出购买决策(从浏览者变成网络消费者)。本文最后构建了一个评估指标体系，以分析判别电子商务网站在网站内容上的不同；进而设计一个针对网页视觉呈现的认知效果的电生理实验，针对样本网站的实验结果显示，两类销售商网站的网页视觉呈现没有显著的差别。无论从价格水平还是网站页面认知效果看，我国B2C电子商务市场上两类零售商存在着一定程度的“同质化竞争”迹象。
整体而言，本文在充分把握既有研究成果的基础上，首先建立了B2C电子商务市场上两类销售商之间价格竞争的理论模型，并推导出两类销售商并存的市场结构，以及各种市场结构下两类销售商的最优定价等均衡解。从推导结果看，该模型能够很好地解释传统的“无摩擦交易理论假说”所无法解释的MCRs价格水平高于Dotcoms等市场现象，在一定程度上深化了对电子商务市场的理论理解。进而本文系统收集了上万个代表性产品的B2C市场价格数据，进行了比较系统和深入的实证分析，得到的实证研究结论不仅可以作为前述理论模型的验证，而且对于深入认识和把握中国高速成长中的电子商务市场具有一定的指导意义。此外，本文在研究方法上广泛采用了统计学、计量经济学、电生理实验等多学科的研究手段，在研究工具上表现出一定程度的多学科交叉的特色。
It is generally accepted that in the research area of online economics, the efficiency of e-commerce is higher that traditional off-line commerce which result in the hypothesis that e-commerce will lead to friction-free commerce. According to this hypothesis, it can be deduced that the price level and the degree of price dispersion are lower for online retailers than traditional offline retailers as well as many other deductions that can be tested. Hence, it is a focus point of e-commerce research to test this hypothesis from the perspective of price.
Recent years, more and more traditional retailers participate in the B2C e-commerce market. The Multi-Channel Retailers (MCRs) who engage in both online and offline channels compete directly with the pure online retailers (Dotcoms) who only develop online business. Focus on this phenomenon, this paper investigates on price competition between these two kinds of retailers in the area of e-commerce market. First, it adopts the method called game model analysis to construct a market competition model of MCRs and Dotcoms, gives out two kinds of retailers' four types of market structure exist in the online market. By using this model, it can be deduced that there are four parameters (including two market layer parameters-the size of the e-commerce market and percentage of e-commerce infiltration together with two retailer enterprise layer parameters-the cost of the e-commerce enterprises and other coefficients excludes price that the consumers apperceive when doing shopping) that influence the price level relationship of two types of retailers. Meanwhile, when compare the prices of two kinds retailers, as the relationship between the parameters is different, it brings on different results.
On the basis of holding the Chinese B2C e-commerce market's structural characteristic sufficiently, we choose DC, DV (as the representation of physical product) and online room reserving (as the representation of service product) respectively, refer to normative data collect method, do statistic analysis (including parameter and non-parameter analysis) and mode analysis (including econometric model and ANOVA model) on almost ten thousand B2C market price data. It shows that: the price compare between the two kinds of retailers is adversely with the reduction of the friction-free commerce hypothesis, Dotcoms' prices are higher that MCRs', Dotcoms does not give out reflection about high efficiency; the price dispersion compare between the two kinds of retailers give support to friction-free commerce hypothesis, Dotcoms' internal price dispersion is lower that MCRs'.
In addition, there is further study about the value of the product influences on the e-commerce market price dispersion. Depend on analysis of thousand price data collected from MP3 market, we conclude that high value products' price dispersion is narrower than low value products' which is consistent with the deduction from friction-free commerce hypothesis.
Combine the analysis of DC,DV market and online room reserving, we can find that the empirical data on price dispersion degree give strong support to friction-free commerce hypothesis. However, the results about price level almost reject the friction-free commerce hypothesis. On this perspective, it can be considered that the efficiency raise comes from e-commerce mainly reflect on that decrease of retailers' price dispersion. As for the price level, it doesn't decline according to people's expectation and there maybe exist other factors that influence it
For further discussing on the empirical analysis results of price competition, based on the conclusions derived from theoretical model, from the angle of consumers' cognition about online retailers, this paper analyzes the possible differences among the online retailers' websites concentrated on the content and the web pages' visual appearance. Generally speaking, the more contents including information and service that websites supply and the more attractive the web pages' visual appearance are, the websites will potentially arrest more website viewer, besides, stimulate them make decision (website viewer turns to online consumer). At last, this paper constructs a evaluate index system in order to distinguish the content differences of e-commerce websites. Sequentially, designs an electric-physiological experiment focus on the cogitation effect of web pages' visual appearance. The results derived from the sample websites' experiment reveal that there is no significant difference between the two types of retailers' websites relate to the web pages' visual appearance.
引文
1 根据美国商务部季度统计数据整理而得，原始季度数据见http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/ecom.pdf
2 摩根斯坦利2004年的预测，转引自《中国互联网5年内将跃居世界首位》，新华网，2004年5月12日
3 见《电子商务季度报告：2004年第一季度》，互联网实验室(北京)，2004年3月1日
4 相关销售数据引自《网上销售手机市场研究报告》．艾瑞咨询，2002年
5 见《WTO后过渡期市场环境与机会：电子商务平台》，新浪网，2004年10月29日，电子文档见http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20041029/16181119517.shtml
6 从近年来的发展情况看，搜索引擎是最主要的电子商务市场中介，此外，专业比价网站等也承担了中介职能。参见《2004年中国搜索引擎研究报告》，艾瑞咨询，2005
7 R．Kutter语，见《商业周刊》(《Business Week》)，1998年5月11日
13 信息产业部专家的数据引自《我国电子商务的最新发展》，龚炳铮，2004；艾瑞咨询数据引自《2005年中国B2C电子商务报告》，艾瑞咨询，2006；易观国际数据引自《中国B2C市场年度报告2006年》，易观国际，2006年。
16 相关数据参见《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，CNNIC，2006年1月
17 数据来源同上。
18 网站的ALEXA排名数据可通过http://www.alexa.com进行检索，其数据在业内被广泛应用。
19 数据来源：《互联网风云再起两大电子商务巨头决战巅峰》，经济参考报，2007年4月18日
32 相关数据见《国产手机新军不再沉默》，21世纪经济报道，2005年12月3日
33 相关数据见《黑手机销量近市场份额40％，手机巨头联名声讨》，东方早报，2005年6月16日
34 见《数码相机市场调查报告》，ZDC(互联网消费调研中心)，2006年4月
41 网上订票市场数据引自《2003年中国网上订房订票研究报告》，艾瑞咨询，2004年；B2C市场数据引自《2005年中国B2C电子商务报告》，艾瑞咨询，2006年。
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2 摩根斯坦利2004年的预测，转引自《中国互联网5年内将跃居世界首位》，新华网，2004年5月12日
3 见《电子商务季度报告：2004年第一季度》，互联网实验室(北京)，2004年3月1日
4 相关销售数据引自《网上销售手机市场研究报告》．艾瑞咨询，2002年
5 见《WTO后过渡期市场环境与机会：电子商务平台》，新浪网，2004年10月29日，电子文档见http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20041029/16181119517.shtml
6 从近年来的发展情况看，搜索引擎是最主要的电子商务市场中介，此外，专业比价网站等也承担了中介职能。参见《2004年中国搜索引擎研究报告》，艾瑞咨询，2005
7 R．Kutter语，见《商业周刊》(《Business Week》)，1998年5月11日
13 信息产业部专家的数据引自《我国电子商务的最新发展》，龚炳铮，2004；艾瑞咨询数据引自《2005年中国B2C电子商务报告》，艾瑞咨询，2006；易观国际数据引自《中国B2C市场年度报告2006年》，易观国际，2006年。
16 相关数据参见《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，CNNIC，2006年1月
17 数据来源同上。
18 网站的ALEXA排名数据可通过http://www.alexa.com进行检索，其数据在业内被广泛应用。
19 数据来源：《互联网风云再起两大电子商务巨头决战巅峰》，经济参考报，2007年4月18日
32 相关数据见《国产手机新军不再沉默》，21世纪经济报道，2005年12月3日
33 相关数据见《黑手机销量近市场份额40％，手机巨头联名声讨》，东方早报，2005年6月16日
34 见《数码相机市场调查报告》，ZDC(互联网消费调研中心)，2006年4月
41 网上订票市场数据引自《2003年中国网上订房订票研究报告》，艾瑞咨询，2004年；B2C市场数据引自《2005年中国B2C电子商务报告》，艾瑞咨询，2006年。
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[37] Lee, M.K.O., & Turban, E.. A Trust Model for Consumer Internet Shopping. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 2001, 6 (1):75-91
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[41] Noldy, N.E., Stelmack, R.M. & Campbell, K.B. Event-related Potentials and Recognition Memory for Pictures and Words: The Effects of Intentional and Incidental Learning. Psychophysiology ,1990, 27 (4): 417-428
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[45] Pan,X.,Shankar,V., & Ratchford.B.. Price Competition Between Pure Play vs. Bricks-and-Clicks e-Tailers: Analytical Model and Empirical Analysis. Advances in Applied Microeconomics, 2002,11:29-61
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[49] Reinken Information Solutions, Web Site Evaluation Criteria, available at: http://www.reinken.com/Web-eval.html, 1997
[50] Scholton, P. & Smith, S. A.. Price Dispersion Then and Now: Evidence from Retail and E-tail Markets. Advances in Applied Microeconomics, 2002,Volume 11:63-88
[51] Scott Morton, F. , Zettelmeyer, F. ,& Silva-Risso, J.. Internet Car Retailing. Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. 1999
[52] Shim, Jae. K. et al.. The International Handbook of Electronic Commerce. Glenlake Pubishing Company, Ltd. Chicago,2000:9-10;60-63
[53] Singer, T. & Fehr, E.. Neuroscintific Foundations of Economic Decision-making. Aea Papers and Proceedings, 2005,95(2):340-345
[54] Sinha,I.. Cost Transparency: The Net's Real Threat to Prices and Brands. Harvard Business Review, 2000 ,(March/April):43-50
[55] Sinha, R., Hearst, M. and Ivory, M., Content or graphics? An empirical analysis of criteria for award-winning Websites, Proceedings of the 7th Conference on Human Factors and the Web, 2001
[56] Smith, A.G., Criteria for evaluation of Internet Information Resources, available at:http://www.vuw.ac.nz/staff/alastair_smith/evaln/index.htm,1997
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