我国钢铁产业安全的国防经济学分析
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摘要
钢铁产业安全是产业安全的重要组成部分,对经济发展和社会稳定至关重要。由于钢铁产业具有较强的国防相关性,钢铁产业安全应当成为国防经济学理性思考和深入研究的课题。本文基于国防经济学的基本理论和视角,力图对我国的钢铁产业安全问题做出全面分析。
钢铁产业安全的国防经济学分析就是从国防经济学角度分析钢铁产业安全这一产品的成功输出过程,取决于四个方面:第一,钢铁产业的实力与潜力;第二,提供军用钢材的优特钢产业的实力;第三,钢铁产业的军民配置方式;第四,国家为抵御钢铁产业发展的外部风险而采取的适当措施。
钢铁产业安全构成要素包括硬安全因素与软安全因素,钢铁产业安全的形成取决于三个环节:强大竞争实力的企业、稳定的产业链、国家对产业发展及其外部环境的掌控与应对。
在明晰产权的基础上提高企业竞争力、确保铁矿石的供应、促进钢铁产业兼并重组是实现我国钢铁产业安全的三大对策措施。
The factors which result in the danger of iron-steel industry at home and abroard are becoming more and more predominant.
Firstly,as for internal production,although iron-steel industry can meets the increasing domestic demand in quantity,it too much concentrated on primary product market in product structure,and it has caused extreme non-balance in import and export.It shows that the domestic surplus inferior production compacity brought serious impact on outside environment,a great deal of exports are leading to more and more trade controversy between our country and other countries,and at the same time the domestic urgent advanced civil-military products seriously depend upon import.
Secondly,the raw material demand of the iron-steel industry also seriously relies on the foreign provision of the three biggest company of iron ore on the condition that it should be able to meet the domestic demand in quantity,what is more,our country does not have the decision power on price,but also suffers the obstruction and destruction of some developed oceanic country which is our enemy.
Thirdly,even if there are not some disadvantages given above,the supper transnational Ltd. of developed countries always plot how to eat Chinese iron-steel industry which is growing stronger and stronger.
At last,iron-steel products,especially some kind of special steel,are one of the three basic material used to produce army weapon,and its provision capacity depends more on the development of civl steel demand.What is more important ,the development of military steel has invaluable infuluence on the whole industry.
But now our country does not have enough awareness of the security of our national iron-steel industry ,and also does not reach the level of national economic security.This thesis is divided into four parts.
Chapter 1,The security of iron-steel industry in terms of defense economics means the safety of defense economics of Chinese iron-steel industry.
1 Recently three specific happened cases make us be careful to watch the safety problem of our national iron-steel industry,and make us worry the prospect deeply.
2 The statement on national security,economic security,and iron-steel industry security is a logical theory framework,and the security of iron-steel industry in terms of defense economics means the security of defense economics of Chinese iron-steel industry.
3 The iron-steel industry security is how to avoid the iron-steel industry risk,and the risks includes the hard risks and soft risks.The factors which make up the iron-steel industry security is made of avoidable hard risks and soft risks
4 The iron-steel industry security is the result of the national macroeconomic management combined with the running of market system,which is divided into three parts:the powerful iron-steel company,the steady industry chain,and the powerful national macroeconomic management.
Chapter 2, This thesis reviews the practional situation of our national iron-steel industry based on contemporary difficult conditions,explais its existing problem,and calculates its safty index.
Chapter 3 ,Then this thesis analyzes its causes for those difficulties,and points out that the weakness of the iron-steel industry is its inner reason.But the funda1mental reason for the weakness of the iron-steel industry is that our national iron-steel industry have not formed economies of scale and its degree of concentration is very low.
Chapter 4, And then this thesis raises three important messures to solve those problems ,especially emphasizes that it is important for the provision of special steel for military demand to maitain the safety of our national iron-steel industry on the condition that“we should integrate and balance well the need to build a strong defence with economic development,and achieve the integrity of rich country and powerful army during the course of building China into a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.
钢铁产业安全的国防经济学分析就是从国防经济学角度分析钢铁产业安全这一产品的成功输出过程,取决于四个方面:第一,钢铁产业的实力与潜力;第二,提供军用钢材的优特钢产业的实力;第三,钢铁产业的军民配置方式;第四,国家为抵御钢铁产业发展的外部风险而采取的适当措施。
钢铁产业安全构成要素包括硬安全因素与软安全因素,钢铁产业安全的形成取决于三个环节:强大竞争实力的企业、稳定的产业链、国家对产业发展及其外部环境的掌控与应对。
在明晰产权的基础上提高企业竞争力、确保铁矿石的供应、促进钢铁产业兼并重组是实现我国钢铁产业安全的三大对策措施。
The factors which result in the danger of iron-steel industry at home and abroard are becoming more and more predominant.
Firstly,as for internal production,although iron-steel industry can meets the increasing domestic demand in quantity,it too much concentrated on primary product market in product structure,and it has caused extreme non-balance in import and export.It shows that the domestic surplus inferior production compacity brought serious impact on outside environment,a great deal of exports are leading to more and more trade controversy between our country and other countries,and at the same time the domestic urgent advanced civil-military products seriously depend upon import.
Secondly,the raw material demand of the iron-steel industry also seriously relies on the foreign provision of the three biggest company of iron ore on the condition that it should be able to meet the domestic demand in quantity,what is more,our country does not have the decision power on price,but also suffers the obstruction and destruction of some developed oceanic country which is our enemy.
Thirdly,even if there are not some disadvantages given above,the supper transnational Ltd. of developed countries always plot how to eat Chinese iron-steel industry which is growing stronger and stronger.
At last,iron-steel products,especially some kind of special steel,are one of the three basic material used to produce army weapon,and its provision capacity depends more on the development of civl steel demand.What is more important ,the development of military steel has invaluable infuluence on the whole industry.
But now our country does not have enough awareness of the security of our national iron-steel industry ,and also does not reach the level of national economic security.This thesis is divided into four parts.
Chapter 1,The security of iron-steel industry in terms of defense economics means the safety of defense economics of Chinese iron-steel industry.
1 Recently three specific happened cases make us be careful to watch the safety problem of our national iron-steel industry,and make us worry the prospect deeply.
2 The statement on national security,economic security,and iron-steel industry security is a logical theory framework,and the security of iron-steel industry in terms of defense economics means the security of defense economics of Chinese iron-steel industry.
3 The iron-steel industry security is how to avoid the iron-steel industry risk,and the risks includes the hard risks and soft risks.The factors which make up the iron-steel industry security is made of avoidable hard risks and soft risks
4 The iron-steel industry security is the result of the national macroeconomic management combined with the running of market system,which is divided into three parts:the powerful iron-steel company,the steady industry chain,and the powerful national macroeconomic management.
Chapter 2, This thesis reviews the practional situation of our national iron-steel industry based on contemporary difficult conditions,explais its existing problem,and calculates its safty index.
Chapter 3 ,Then this thesis analyzes its causes for those difficulties,and points out that the weakness of the iron-steel industry is its inner reason.But the funda1mental reason for the weakness of the iron-steel industry is that our national iron-steel industry have not formed economies of scale and its degree of concentration is very low.
Chapter 4, And then this thesis raises three important messures to solve those problems ,especially emphasizes that it is important for the provision of special steel for military demand to maitain the safety of our national iron-steel industry on the condition that“we should integrate and balance well the need to build a strong defence with economic development,and achieve the integrity of rich country and powerful army during the course of building China into a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.
引文
[1] 希奇,中国人民解放军军事科学院译.核时代的国防经济学.中国人民解放军总参谋部出版局,1965,103-113 页
[2] 于连坤.国防经济学概论. 北京:国防大学出版社,1999,01,48-70 页
[3] 库桂生.国防经济学说史. 北京:高等教育出版社,2003,07,第二版,234-270页
[4] 中国国防经济. 国防大学国防经济中心出版,2007 年
[5] 国增明.中国国家安全经济导论.中国统计出版社,2006,第一版,24-27 页
[6] 中国现代国际关系研究院经济安全中心.国家经济安全.北京:时事出版社,2005,35-60 页
[7] 叶卫平. 避险求强:中国军工“入世”对策. 北京出版社,2001,01,77-78 页
[8] 朱庆林. 中国国防经济改革与发展论丛. 军事科学出版社,1999,12,46-63 页
[9] 芮明杰. 产业经济学. 上海财经大学出版社, 2005,08
[10] 冯飞、杨建龙. 2006 中国产业发展报告. 北京:华夏出版社,2006,06,页码97—104
[11] 中国联合钢铁网. 2007—2010 年中国钢铁工业整体形式发展报告,22-23 页
[12] 中国联合钢铁网. 2007—2015 年中国钢材消费发展趋势预测报告,15-20 页
[13] 刘瑞. 国民经济管理学概论. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004
[14] 李子奈. 计量经济学. 北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[15] 高鸿业. 西方经济学.教育部高教司,2004,第三版,上册 183-317 页
[16] (德)柯武钢、史漫飞. 制度经济学. 韩朝华译,北京:商务印书馆,2000,05,1-16 页
[17] 军事科学院战略研究部. 战略学. 北京:军事科学出版社,2001,第一版,67-87页
[18] 波札罗夫. 社会主义国家国防实力的经济基础. 李洪元等译,解放军出版社,1985
[19] 毛泽东选集,第 1—4 卷. 人民出版社,1991,第二版,
[20] 张中元,王文华. 江泽民新时期国防经济思想研究. 陕西人民出版社,2002
[21] 教育部社会科学研究与思想政治工作司,教育部考试中心编制.2008 年全国硕士研究生入学统一考试政治理论考试大纲解析. 北京:高等教育出版社,2007,06
[1] 谈万强. 我国国防经济运行模式探析. 南京政治学院学报,2002,03
[2] 古先光. 论国防经济的市场配置特征. 中国军转民,2004 第 11 期
[3] 毛志龙. 关于国防与经济协调发展战略的经济分析. 西南师范大学,2004
[4] 焦智立、夏炎. 国防经济建设中体现科学发展观的哲学思考. 北京理工大学学报社会科学版,2005,02
[5] 张文元. 经济全球化对我国国防经济安全的挑战与维护对策. 东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003,03
[6] 叶辉南. 建国以来我国国防战略的四次重大调整. 当代中国史研究,1999
[7] 杨继平. 入世后中国钢铁工业产业安全估算. 求索,2005,03
[8] 王琴华. 维护产业安全任重而道远. 国际商报,2005,01,12,第 011 版
[9] 2005 年 4 月 20 日国务院审议并原则通过了《钢铁产业发展政策》(7 月 20日,发展改革委令第 35 号)
[10] 赵玉申. 近年钢材市场回顾及 07 年后市展望. 中国联合钢铁网,2007,05,25
[11] 国信证券. 钢铁行业专题研究报告. 2006,03,31
[12] 2007 年 1 月 14 日,美国钢铁协会、美国钢铁制造商协会、北美特种钢工业协会和美国钢铁工人联合会共同发布了题为《国产钢铁对整体国防目标和经济及军事安全的重要性》的钢铁行业分析报告
[13] 陈友谊. 美国国防工业“军转民研究”. 国际技术经济研究,2000,02
[14] 胡鞍钢. 中国国防建设大大滞后于经济建设. 中国国防经济,2003,02
[15] 李鹏.中国钢铁产业国际竞争力分析.经济纵横,2002,11
[1] Todd Sandler and Keith Hartley,The Ecnomics of Defence,Cambridge University Press,2000.
[2] Pilisbury Michael,China:Debates the Future Security Invironment [M].New York:National Defence University Press,2004.
[3] Either, Wilfred J., Dumping, Journal of Political Econorny, vol.90 (1982), no.3, pp.487-506.
[4] Hindley, B. and Patrick A. Messerlin, Antidumping Industrial Policy: Legalized Protectionism in the WTO arul What to Do about It Washington, D.C.:The AEI Press, 1996.
[5] Moore, Michael.O., Steel Protection in the 1980s:the Waning Influence of Big Steel, NBER Working Paper No.4760, 1994.
[6] Committee on Economic Studies.Steelstatistical year book 2004 : .Brussels International Iron and Steel Institute 2004.10-13,102-107.
[7] Committee on Economic Studies.World steel in figures2005, Brussels:International Iron and Steel Institute 2005.17-18.
[2] 于连坤.国防经济学概论. 北京:国防大学出版社,1999,01,48-70 页
[3] 库桂生.国防经济学说史. 北京:高等教育出版社,2003,07,第二版,234-270页
[4] 中国国防经济. 国防大学国防经济中心出版,2007 年
[5] 国增明.中国国家安全经济导论.中国统计出版社,2006,第一版,24-27 页
[6] 中国现代国际关系研究院经济安全中心.国家经济安全.北京:时事出版社,2005,35-60 页
[7] 叶卫平. 避险求强:中国军工“入世”对策. 北京出版社,2001,01,77-78 页
[8] 朱庆林. 中国国防经济改革与发展论丛. 军事科学出版社,1999,12,46-63 页
[9] 芮明杰. 产业经济学. 上海财经大学出版社, 2005,08
[10] 冯飞、杨建龙. 2006 中国产业发展报告. 北京:华夏出版社,2006,06,页码97—104
[11] 中国联合钢铁网. 2007—2010 年中国钢铁工业整体形式发展报告,22-23 页
[12] 中国联合钢铁网. 2007—2015 年中国钢材消费发展趋势预测报告,15-20 页
[13] 刘瑞. 国民经济管理学概论. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004
[14] 李子奈. 计量经济学. 北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[15] 高鸿业. 西方经济学.教育部高教司,2004,第三版,上册 183-317 页
[16] (德)柯武钢、史漫飞. 制度经济学. 韩朝华译,北京:商务印书馆,2000,05,1-16 页
[17] 军事科学院战略研究部. 战略学. 北京:军事科学出版社,2001,第一版,67-87页
[18] 波札罗夫. 社会主义国家国防实力的经济基础. 李洪元等译,解放军出版社,1985
[19] 毛泽东选集,第 1—4 卷. 人民出版社,1991,第二版,
[20] 张中元,王文华. 江泽民新时期国防经济思想研究. 陕西人民出版社,2002
[21] 教育部社会科学研究与思想政治工作司,教育部考试中心编制.2008 年全国硕士研究生入学统一考试政治理论考试大纲解析. 北京:高等教育出版社,2007,06
[1] 谈万强. 我国国防经济运行模式探析. 南京政治学院学报,2002,03
[2] 古先光. 论国防经济的市场配置特征. 中国军转民,2004 第 11 期
[3] 毛志龙. 关于国防与经济协调发展战略的经济分析. 西南师范大学,2004
[4] 焦智立、夏炎. 国防经济建设中体现科学发展观的哲学思考. 北京理工大学学报社会科学版,2005,02
[5] 张文元. 经济全球化对我国国防经济安全的挑战与维护对策. 东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003,03
[6] 叶辉南. 建国以来我国国防战略的四次重大调整. 当代中国史研究,1999
[7] 杨继平. 入世后中国钢铁工业产业安全估算. 求索,2005,03
[8] 王琴华. 维护产业安全任重而道远. 国际商报,2005,01,12,第 011 版
[9] 2005 年 4 月 20 日国务院审议并原则通过了《钢铁产业发展政策》(7 月 20日,发展改革委令第 35 号)
[10] 赵玉申. 近年钢材市场回顾及 07 年后市展望. 中国联合钢铁网,2007,05,25
[11] 国信证券. 钢铁行业专题研究报告. 2006,03,31
[12] 2007 年 1 月 14 日,美国钢铁协会、美国钢铁制造商协会、北美特种钢工业协会和美国钢铁工人联合会共同发布了题为《国产钢铁对整体国防目标和经济及军事安全的重要性》的钢铁行业分析报告
[13] 陈友谊. 美国国防工业“军转民研究”. 国际技术经济研究,2000,02
[14] 胡鞍钢. 中国国防建设大大滞后于经济建设. 中国国防经济,2003,02
[15] 李鹏.中国钢铁产业国际竞争力分析.经济纵横,2002,11
[1] Todd Sandler and Keith Hartley,The Ecnomics of Defence,Cambridge University Press,2000.
[2] Pilisbury Michael,China:Debates the Future Security Invironment [M].New York:National Defence University Press,2004.
[3] Either, Wilfred J., Dumping, Journal of Political Econorny, vol.90 (1982), no.3, pp.487-506.
[4] Hindley, B. and Patrick A. Messerlin, Antidumping Industrial Policy: Legalized Protectionism in the WTO arul What to Do about It Washington, D.C.:The AEI Press, 1996.
[5] Moore, Michael.O., Steel Protection in the 1980s:the Waning Influence of Big Steel, NBER Working Paper No.4760, 1994.
[6] Committee on Economic Studies.Steelstatistical year book 2004 : .Brussels International Iron and Steel Institute 2004.10-13,102-107.
[7] Committee on Economic Studies.World steel in figures2005, Brussels:International Iron and Steel Institute 2005.17-18.