要素投入与巴西经济增长
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摘要
巴西是拉丁美洲最大的发展中国家,不仅人口最多、国土面积最为辽阔,而且经济实力居拉美之首、世界第六。对于一个如此重要的经济大国,我国国内学术界对它的研究还相当贫乏。本文的研究对象是巴西的经济增长。
巴西的经济增长之路并非一帆风顺。从上世纪以来,巴西的经济发展大致经历了三个阶段：第一阶段(1900—1929)为初级产品出口驱动下的巴西经济增长。第二阶段为进口替代工业化驱动下的巴西经济增长(1929—1994)。在这一阶段又可以1975年为节点,细分成两个时期。第一个时期(1929—1975)是巴西经济的高速发展期。在此期间,巴西工业得到了快速发展,并顺利地从低收入国家进入中等收入国家行列。第二时期为1975年至1994年。在这一时期,巴西受到两次石油危机的外部冲击,且前阶段高速增长的经济模式带来的种种弊端显露无疑。在内忧外患的双重夹击之下,巴西经济陷入了“丢失的十年”。第三阶段(1994年至今)为新自由主义改革驱动下的巴西经济增长。在新自由主义改革的推动下,巴西逐渐转变经济增长模式,经济开始复苏,并成为世界第六大经济体。
本文使用经济增长理论,从要素投入以及全要素生产率的视角来剖析巴西的经济增长。因此在导论、相关文献综述、巴西经济发展历程的研究之后,本文分别从自然资源要素、劳动力要素、人力资本投资要素、资本要素以及全要素生产率的角度分别研究其与巴西经济增长之间的关系.并发现,作为一个自然资源丰裕的发展中大国,巴西经济带有明显的自然资源依赖性特征。针对其自然资源依赖性,本文提出了如何避免资源诅咒效应的政策建议。本文继而采用柯布一道格拉斯函数估算了20世纪以来巴西经济增长中资本要素及人力资本要素投入、全要素生产率对GDP增长的贡献度,发现巴西的资本形成快慢、资本效率、全要素生产率增长率与巴西经济增长之间存在显著的相关关系,也就是说巴西增长模式仍然依赖于投资拉动,属于粗放型的经济增长模式。在使用马尔姆·奎斯特指数法对巴西全要素生产率进一步分解后,本文发现巴西TFP的增长来源于技术进步,而非资源配置效率的改善。
在前文分析的基础上,本文总结了巴西经济增长的特点,分析了巴西经济大幅震荡的原因在于对外过于依赖国际市场、对内过于依赖自然资源和要素拉动型的经济增长模式,且人力资本的形成和积累尚不足以支持巴西的创新,在制度上巴西政府未能及时选择经济增长模式的转型。这些因素的共同作用,导致巴西20世纪前八十年快速的经济增长未能持续。以“雷亚尔计划”为标志的新自由主义制度变革推动巴西逐渐走出“丢失的十年”,但要维持巴西的可持续性发展,巴西政府一方面需要降低巴西经济对自然资源禀赋的依赖性、进一步稳定国内的宏观经济形势,加强对外部冲击的抵御能力；另一方面要加快人力资本积累,鼓励创新,尽快完成产业结构调整和增长方式的转型。
Brazil is the largest country in Latin America, both in terms of its population, its territory and its economic power. However, such an important country as Brazil is heavily under-researched in China. The thesis takes up a daunting task to unveil the secrets behind Brazilian economic growth since last century.
Brazil used to be one of the fastest growing countries in the first eight decades of the20th century. However, Brazilian growth came to a sudden halt in the1980s. Throughout the1980s, Brazil could barely survive from the oil shock and debt crisis. In1994, Brazil embarked on political and economic reforms, which pulled Brazilian economy out of the trenches and drove it to become the sixth largest economy in the world in2010.
The thesis aims to unveil the secrets of the ups and downs of Brazilian economic growth from the perspective of factor inputs and total factor productivity. After the introduction, literature review and a brief overview of Brazilian economic history, the thesis examines how much the factor inputs (natural resources, labor, human resources, capitals) and total factor productivity contribute to Brazilian economic growth respectively. The thesis finds that as a natural resource abundant country, Brazil benefits from its abundancy. In the meantime, however, it suffers from the natural resource curse with the signs of de-industrialization appearing. The thesis then endeavors to make policy suggestions with a view to minimizing the effects of the resource curse. In the following Chapters Five and Six, the thesis measures how labor and capital factors contribute to Brazilian economic growth. The calculation indicates that throughout the20th century, Brazil remains a factor-driven economy. Also, based on the calculation of the total factor productivity in Brazil from1960to2010with growth accounting and Malmquist Index, the thesis finds that institutional reforms, which bring forth the growth of Brazilian TFP, are the driving forces behind the Brazilian economic takeoff in the early21st century.
Upon summarizing the features of Brazilian economic growth, the thesis points out the huge fluctuations of Brazilian economy result from its over-dependence over international market for exports and over-reliance over a factor-driven growth model domestically. Moreover, Brazil lacks a strong human resource pool to support its innovation and industrial restructuring. With all the above reasons combined, Brazilian economic growth pulled a sudden stop in the early1980s. The institutional reforms, unleashed by the Real Plan, enable Brazil to embark on a new recovery. However, to make the recovery sustainable, Brazilian government need reduce Brazil's dependence over commodity exports, further stabilize its domestic economy against external shocks, and accelerate the pace of human resource accumulation to encourage innovation and industrial restructuring.
巴西的经济增长之路并非一帆风顺。从上世纪以来,巴西的经济发展大致经历了三个阶段：第一阶段(1900—1929)为初级产品出口驱动下的巴西经济增长。第二阶段为进口替代工业化驱动下的巴西经济增长(1929—1994)。在这一阶段又可以1975年为节点,细分成两个时期。第一个时期(1929—1975)是巴西经济的高速发展期。在此期间,巴西工业得到了快速发展,并顺利地从低收入国家进入中等收入国家行列。第二时期为1975年至1994年。在这一时期,巴西受到两次石油危机的外部冲击,且前阶段高速增长的经济模式带来的种种弊端显露无疑。在内忧外患的双重夹击之下,巴西经济陷入了“丢失的十年”。第三阶段(1994年至今)为新自由主义改革驱动下的巴西经济增长。在新自由主义改革的推动下,巴西逐渐转变经济增长模式,经济开始复苏,并成为世界第六大经济体。
本文使用经济增长理论,从要素投入以及全要素生产率的视角来剖析巴西的经济增长。因此在导论、相关文献综述、巴西经济发展历程的研究之后,本文分别从自然资源要素、劳动力要素、人力资本投资要素、资本要素以及全要素生产率的角度分别研究其与巴西经济增长之间的关系.并发现,作为一个自然资源丰裕的发展中大国,巴西经济带有明显的自然资源依赖性特征。针对其自然资源依赖性,本文提出了如何避免资源诅咒效应的政策建议。本文继而采用柯布一道格拉斯函数估算了20世纪以来巴西经济增长中资本要素及人力资本要素投入、全要素生产率对GDP增长的贡献度,发现巴西的资本形成快慢、资本效率、全要素生产率增长率与巴西经济增长之间存在显著的相关关系,也就是说巴西增长模式仍然依赖于投资拉动,属于粗放型的经济增长模式。在使用马尔姆·奎斯特指数法对巴西全要素生产率进一步分解后,本文发现巴西TFP的增长来源于技术进步,而非资源配置效率的改善。
在前文分析的基础上,本文总结了巴西经济增长的特点,分析了巴西经济大幅震荡的原因在于对外过于依赖国际市场、对内过于依赖自然资源和要素拉动型的经济增长模式,且人力资本的形成和积累尚不足以支持巴西的创新,在制度上巴西政府未能及时选择经济增长模式的转型。这些因素的共同作用,导致巴西20世纪前八十年快速的经济增长未能持续。以“雷亚尔计划”为标志的新自由主义制度变革推动巴西逐渐走出“丢失的十年”,但要维持巴西的可持续性发展,巴西政府一方面需要降低巴西经济对自然资源禀赋的依赖性、进一步稳定国内的宏观经济形势,加强对外部冲击的抵御能力；另一方面要加快人力资本积累,鼓励创新,尽快完成产业结构调整和增长方式的转型。
Brazil is the largest country in Latin America, both in terms of its population, its territory and its economic power. However, such an important country as Brazil is heavily under-researched in China. The thesis takes up a daunting task to unveil the secrets behind Brazilian economic growth since last century.
Brazil used to be one of the fastest growing countries in the first eight decades of the20th century. However, Brazilian growth came to a sudden halt in the1980s. Throughout the1980s, Brazil could barely survive from the oil shock and debt crisis. In1994, Brazil embarked on political and economic reforms, which pulled Brazilian economy out of the trenches and drove it to become the sixth largest economy in the world in2010.
The thesis aims to unveil the secrets of the ups and downs of Brazilian economic growth from the perspective of factor inputs and total factor productivity. After the introduction, literature review and a brief overview of Brazilian economic history, the thesis examines how much the factor inputs (natural resources, labor, human resources, capitals) and total factor productivity contribute to Brazilian economic growth respectively. The thesis finds that as a natural resource abundant country, Brazil benefits from its abundancy. In the meantime, however, it suffers from the natural resource curse with the signs of de-industrialization appearing. The thesis then endeavors to make policy suggestions with a view to minimizing the effects of the resource curse. In the following Chapters Five and Six, the thesis measures how labor and capital factors contribute to Brazilian economic growth. The calculation indicates that throughout the20th century, Brazil remains a factor-driven economy. Also, based on the calculation of the total factor productivity in Brazil from1960to2010with growth accounting and Malmquist Index, the thesis finds that institutional reforms, which bring forth the growth of Brazilian TFP, are the driving forces behind the Brazilian economic takeoff in the early21st century.
Upon summarizing the features of Brazilian economic growth, the thesis points out the huge fluctuations of Brazilian economy result from its over-dependence over international market for exports and over-reliance over a factor-driven growth model domestically. Moreover, Brazil lacks a strong human resource pool to support its innovation and industrial restructuring. With all the above reasons combined, Brazilian economic growth pulled a sudden stop in the early1980s. The institutional reforms, unleashed by the Real Plan, enable Brazil to embark on a new recovery. However, to make the recovery sustainable, Brazilian government need reduce Brazil's dependence over commodity exports, further stabilize its domestic economy against external shocks, and accelerate the pace of human resource accumulation to encourage innovation and industrial restructuring.
引文
① Eduardo Rodrigues, China Passa Estados Unidos Como Principal Parceiro Comercial do Brasil, O Globo,5 de Maio de 2009,
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③World Bank, World Development Report 2000-2001, Attacking Poverty, Oxford University Press,2002
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② 速水佑次郎,《发展经济学—从贫困到富裕》,社会科学文献出版社,2003年,第78-79页
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① Schultz, Theodore W.:" Investment in Human Capital", American Economic Review:Vol.51, No.1, (March 1961), p1-17
② Schultz, Theodore W.:"Investment in Human Capital", American Economic Review:Vol.51, No.1,(March 1961), p1-17
① Lucas, R.E, "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol22,1989,p3-42
② 转引自谭崇台,《发展经济学》,山西经济出版社,2000年,第91-92页
② Theodore W. Schultz, "Investment in Human Captial", The Amercian Economic Review, Vol 51, March 1961, p1-17
① 亚当·斯密,《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》,商务印书馆1972年版,第315-316页
② 大卫·李嘉图,《政治经济学及赋税原理》,华夏出版社；第1版(2005年9月1日),第37页
③ 同上,第39页
④ 同上,第41页
⑤ 同上,第53页
① 同上,第61页
② 邹刚,“增长理论的新进展”,载汤敏,茅于轼主编：《现代经济学前沿》,第二集,商务印书馆,1993年,第43页
① 沈坤荣,《新增长理论与中国经济增长》,南京大学出版社,2003
① 《巴西经济的形成》,塞尔索·富尔塔多著,徐宜行,张玮琪译,社会科学文献出版社,2002
① Armando Castelar Pinheiro, Indermit S, Gill, Luis Serven, Mark Thomas, "Brazilian Economic Growth,1900-2000:Lessons and Policy Implications", Inter American Development Bank,2004. 5
① Ricardo Hausmann, "In Search of the Chains That Hold Brazil Back", September 2008, Working Paper
② Jim O'Neill, "Building Better Global Economic BRICs",2001 Nov.
③ Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman, "Dreaming with BRICs:The Path to 2050",2003 Oct 1st.
④ Jim O'Neill, "BRICs and Beyond",2007, Nov.23
① 2010年12月南非正式加入金砖国家,“金砖四国”变成“金砖五国”。
② PricewaterCooper, The World in 2050, May 2011
③ www.economist.com/node/14845179
① World Development Indicators database, World Bank,18 September 2012
② J.F诺尔马诺,《巴西经济类型的研究》,北卡罗莱纳大学出版社,1935,第22页。转自斯蒂芬·罗博克,《巴西经济发展研究》,上海：上海译文出版社,1980,第26页。
① 宋则行等,《世界经济史》(上),北京：北京科技出版社,1994。钱乘旦等,《世界现代化进程》,南京大学出版社,1997
① 相重光：《国际分工》,经济科学出版社,1987,第12页。
② 贝瑟尔：《剑桥拉丁美洲史》,第四卷,社会科学文献出版社,1991年,P34-35.
③ Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, US,2008, P23
① 同上
② 张家哲,《资本主义在北、南美洲早起发展速缓缘由探析》载《上海社会科学院季刊》,1990年第4期。
③ 卡尔洛斯·达维拉,《我们的美州人》,芝加哥,1949,211-215。转引自韩琦,《拉丁美洲经济制度史论》,中国社会科学出版社,1996,第206页
④ 海因茨·阿恩特：《经济发展思想史》,商务印书馆,1999,第24页
① 苏振兴等,《巴西经济》,人民出版社,1983,第7-8页
② Werner Baer, The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development, (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, US, 2008. p20
① T. Schultz, "Economic Prospectus of Primary Products," in Economic Development of Latin America, H. Ellis and H. Wallich, eds. (New York:St. Martin's Press,1961). P313
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008, P35
① Raul Prebisch, "The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems", Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Vol.7, No.1, Feb.1962, p.4
② United Nations, World Economic Survey,1962, part 1. "The Developing Countries in World Trade," p.6
③ Rex F. Daily, "Coffee Consumption and Prices in the United States," Agricultural Economics Research, July 1958, P61-71
① 杰拉尔德·迈耶,达德利·希尔斯编：《发展经济学的先驱》,经济科学出版社1988年,p181。
① 多恩·布什主编,《开放经济：发展中国家际决策者的工具》,英国牛津大学出版社,1988,P299
① 卢中原, 《世界产业结构变动趋势和我国的战略抉择》,人民出版社,2009
② 周志伟,《从“永远的潜在大国”到崛起的金砖——试论巴西发展模式的转变》,2009,第11页
③ 苏振兴等,《巴西经济》,人民出版社,1983,第24页
① World Development Indicators, World Bank
② Huddle, Donald, "Postwar Brazilian Industrialization:Growth Patterns, Inflation and Sources of Stagnation", in Eric N Baklandoff ed.:The Shaping of Modern Brazil, Baton Rouge, Louisiana State University,1969, p96
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008
② Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008.p462
①Ricardo Adrogue, Martin Cerisola, and Gaston Gelos, "Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance-Trying to Explain the Puzzle", IMF Working Paper, December 2006
① 转自张宝宇,《拉丁美洲外债简论》,社会科学文献出版社,1993,第79页
② 同上
① Albert Fishlow, "A Tale of Two Presidents:The Political Economy of Crisis Management," in Alfred Stepan, ed., Democratizing Brazil:Problems of Transition and Consolidation, Oxford University Press,1989, P83,85
② 林毅夫,《新结构经济学—重构发展经济学的框架》,2010年1月19日在联合国大学世界经发展经济研究院(UNU-WIDER)的报告
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), London, Praeger Publisher,2008,357-358
① 亚历山大,《拉美进口替代的回顾》,载于J.迪兹等,《走向发展：从普雷维什到技术自立》美国林—雷纳出版公司,1990,转自江学时,《拉美发展模式研究》,北京：经济管理出版社,1996,84
② 莱斯利·贝瑟尔主编,《剑桥拉丁美洲史》(中文版),北京：当代世界出版社,2000年版,第六卷(上),第203页。
③ O·松凯尔：《90年代的新结构主义与新自由主义之争》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1990年12月,第36-40页。
① J.M.萨拉查—西林纳科斯：《经济发展中国家与市场的作用》,载O·松凯尔主编：《从内部发展：用新结构主义方法解释拉丁美洲》,美国林—雷纳出版公司,1993年,第271页。
② 《拉美经委会与新自由主义：法恩齐伯访谈录》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》,1994年4月,P205-207
③ 关于新结构主义的主张,见苏振兴《拉丁美洲的新结构主义》,载于《拉丁美洲研究》,1991年第二期；O·松凯尔等,《90年代的新结构主义与新自由主义之争》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1990年12月：J·拉莫斯：《增长、危机和战略性改变》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1993年8月
① 拉美经委会,《拉美经委会评论》,1993年8月,第4.4页
① A. Pinheirio y F. Giambiagi, "The Macroeconomic Background and the Institutional Framework of Brazilian Privatization," 1998, El Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Ecnomico e Social. www.bndes.gov.br
② 同上
① General Carlos de Meira Mattos,Brasill Geopolitica e Destino,Biblioteca do Exercito Editora, Rio de Janerio,1975, p1
①Roberto Dumas Dams,Tatiana Rosito,《巴西经济与社会发展：2010年总结与2011年展望》,《金砖国家经济社会发展报告,2011》,社会科学文献出版社
① Ministerio de Minas e Energia, Piano Nacional de Minerarcao 2030, Brasil,10 de Novembro de 2010
② www.eia.doe.gov, Country Analysis Briefs, EIA, International Energy Statistics
② Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Briefs, Brazil,www.eia.doe.gov, Feb.29, 2012
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① Nancy Birdsall, "Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Thomas Pinckney, Williams College, Richard Sabot, Williams College,22 September 1999
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② 贝瑟尔：《剑桥拉丁美洲史》,第四卷,社会科学文献出版社,1991年,P34-35.
③ Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, US,2008, P23
① 同上
② 张家哲,《资本主义在北、南美洲早起发展速缓缘由探析》载《上海社会科学院季刊》,1990年第4期。
③ 卡尔洛斯·达维拉,《我们的美州人》,芝加哥,1949,211-215。转引自韩琦,《拉丁美洲经济制度史论》,中国社会科学出版社,1996,第206页
④ 海因茨·阿恩特：《经济发展思想史》,商务印书馆,1999,第24页
① 苏振兴等,《巴西经济》,人民出版社,1983,第7-8页
② Werner Baer, The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development, (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, US, 2008. p20
① T. Schultz, "Economic Prospectus of Primary Products," in Economic Development of Latin America, H. Ellis and H. Wallich, eds. (New York:St. Martin's Press,1961). P313
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008, P35
① Raul Prebisch, "The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems", Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Vol.7, No.1, Feb.1962, p.4
② United Nations, World Economic Survey,1962, part 1. "The Developing Countries in World Trade," p.6
③ Rex F. Daily, "Coffee Consumption and Prices in the United States," Agricultural Economics Research, July 1958, P61-71
① 杰拉尔德·迈耶,达德利·希尔斯编：《发展经济学的先驱》,经济科学出版社1988年,p181。
① 多恩·布什主编,《开放经济：发展中国家际决策者的工具》,英国牛津大学出版社,1988,P299
① 卢中原, 《世界产业结构变动趋势和我国的战略抉择》,人民出版社,2009
② 周志伟,《从“永远的潜在大国”到崛起的金砖——试论巴西发展模式的转变》,2009,第11页
③ 苏振兴等,《巴西经济》,人民出版社,1983,第24页
① World Development Indicators, World Bank
② Huddle, Donald, "Postwar Brazilian Industrialization:Growth Patterns, Inflation and Sources of Stagnation", in Eric N Baklandoff ed.:The Shaping of Modern Brazil, Baton Rouge, Louisiana State University,1969, p96
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008
② Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc,2008.p462
①Ricardo Adrogue, Martin Cerisola, and Gaston Gelos, "Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance-Trying to Explain the Puzzle", IMF Working Paper, December 2006
① 转自张宝宇,《拉丁美洲外债简论》,社会科学文献出版社,1993,第79页
② 同上
① Albert Fishlow, "A Tale of Two Presidents:The Political Economy of Crisis Management," in Alfred Stepan, ed., Democratizing Brazil:Problems of Transition and Consolidation, Oxford University Press,1989, P83,85
② 林毅夫,《新结构经济学—重构发展经济学的框架》,2010年1月19日在联合国大学世界经发展经济研究院(UNU-WIDER)的报告
① Baer, Werner:The Brazilian Economy:Growth and Development (6th edition), London, Praeger Publisher,2008,357-358
① 亚历山大,《拉美进口替代的回顾》,载于J.迪兹等,《走向发展：从普雷维什到技术自立》美国林—雷纳出版公司,1990,转自江学时,《拉美发展模式研究》,北京：经济管理出版社,1996,84
② 莱斯利·贝瑟尔主编,《剑桥拉丁美洲史》(中文版),北京：当代世界出版社,2000年版,第六卷(上),第203页。
③ O·松凯尔：《90年代的新结构主义与新自由主义之争》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1990年12月,第36-40页。
① J.M.萨拉查—西林纳科斯：《经济发展中国家与市场的作用》,载O·松凯尔主编：《从内部发展：用新结构主义方法解释拉丁美洲》,美国林—雷纳出版公司,1993年,第271页。
② 《拉美经委会与新自由主义：法恩齐伯访谈录》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》,1994年4月,P205-207
③ 关于新结构主义的主张,见苏振兴《拉丁美洲的新结构主义》,载于《拉丁美洲研究》,1991年第二期；O·松凯尔等,《90年代的新结构主义与新自由主义之争》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1990年12月：J·拉莫斯：《增长、危机和战略性改变》,载拉美经委会：《拉美经委会评论》1993年8月
① 拉美经委会,《拉美经委会评论》,1993年8月,第4.4页
① A. Pinheirio y F. Giambiagi, "The Macroeconomic Background and the Institutional Framework of Brazilian Privatization," 1998, El Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Ecnomico e Social. www.bndes.gov.br
② 同上
① General Carlos de Meira Mattos,Brasill Geopolitica e Destino,Biblioteca do Exercito Editora, Rio de Janerio,1975, p1
①Roberto Dumas Dams,Tatiana Rosito,《巴西经济与社会发展：2010年总结与2011年展望》,《金砖国家经济社会发展报告,2011》,社会科学文献出版社
① Ministerio de Minas e Energia, Piano Nacional de Minerarcao 2030, Brasil,10 de Novembro de 2010
② www.eia.doe.gov, Country Analysis Briefs, EIA, International Energy Statistics
② Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Briefs, Brazil,www.eia.doe.gov, Feb.29, 2012
① 莱斯利·贝瑟尔主编：《剑桥拉丁美洲史》,(中文版),北京：当代世界出版社,2000年版,第6卷,p201-202。
① Nancy Birdsall, "Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Thomas Pinckney, Williams College, Richard Sabot, Williams College,22 September 1999
①World Bank, WDI Database
②Guiherme Evelin, O Presendete e o Futuro, epoca Edicao no 646,1 de Outubro de 2010.
① United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects, the 2006 Revision. New York. Oct.2007
① Jones, Gavin W., Visaria, Provin, eds.1997, Urbanization in Large Developing Countries: China, Indonesia, Brazil and India, Clarendon Press, p 204.
① Barbara Bruns, David Evans, Javier Luque, Achieving World Class Education in Brazil:The Next Agenda, World Bank,2010
① Andre Martinez-Fritscher, Aldo Musacchio, "The Great Leap Forward:The Political Economy of Education in Brazil,1889-1930", NBER Working Paper
② 黄志成,《巴西教育》,吉林教育出版社,2000,第48页
③ 陈作彬,《拉丁美洲国家的教育》,人民教育出版社,1985,第112页
④ Clarissa Eckert Baeta Neves, "Higher Education in Brazil:Access and Equity through Social Inclusion Policies,"World Bank Report.
① Torres, Carlos Alberto and Adriana Puiggros ed.:Latin American Education:Comparative Perspectives, Boulder, Westview Press,1997, p130
② 曾绍耀等,《战后拉丁美洲教育研究》,江西教育出版社,1994,第312页
③ "Opportunity Foregone:Education in Brazil",Inter-American Development Bank,1991
① 孙发利,李军靠,《新自由主义对我国教育体制重构的启示》,广西社会科学,2004(1),第166-168页
① 第一次PISA评估于2000年首次举行,此后每3年举行一次。为了确保巴西和其他国家之间教育质量的可比性,巴西政府于2000年就参加了该项目。最近一次PISA测试是在2009年进行的。同时,2009年上海首次参与PISA项目测试。PISA数据成为巴西各级教育政策制定者跟踪教育质量最重要的指标。
② OECD (2010), PISA 2009 Results:Executive Summary
③ Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais Anisio Teixeira (INEP) http://portal.inep.gov.br/
① OECD, PISA 2009 Database,http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342
② See Menezes-Filho et al (2002), http://cep.lse.ac.uk/seminarpapers/03-02-04-FIL.pdf
③ Clarissa Eckert Baeta Neves,"Higher Education In Brazil:Access And Equity Through Social Inclusion Policies",World Bank Report
① Naercio Menezes-Filho, Elaine Pazello,"Evaluating the Effects of FUNDEF on Wages and Test Scores in Brazil", http://cep.lse.ac.uk/seminarpapers/03-02-04-FIL.pdf
② UNESCO, Education For All Global Monitoring Report,2011-The Hidden Crisis:Armed Conflict and Education,2011
① Arnold, J. (2011), "Raising Investment in Brazil", OECD Publishing, Economics Department Working Papers, No.900, OECD
① 周志伟,《巴西崛起与世界格局》,社会科学文献出版社,2010
① 转引自谭崇台《发展经济学》,山西经济出版社,2000年版,第91-92页
① 莱斯利·贝瑟尔主编：《剑桥拉丁美洲史》,(中文版),北京：当代世界出版社,2000年版,第6卷,第201-202页
② "China ajuda crescimento economic brasilerir, diz economist," Agencia Lusa,28 de Fervererio de 2008.
① The World Bank, "Robust Recovery,Rising Risks", World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010,Volume 2. Washington,DC. November 2010,p.27.
② 黄亚生,《中国模式到底有独特》,中信出版社,2011
① 刘国光,王洛林，李金文，刘树成,汪同三《2002—2003中国经济形势分析预报》,社会科学文献出版社,2002.1
② 林毅夫,《经济增长方式转变和“十一五”规划》,http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-10/14/content_3615336.htm
③ 《吴敬琏称腐败垄断造成当前贫富差距拉大》,http://view.news.qq.com/a/20060626/000012.htm
④ 杜德利·西尔斯：《发展的含义》,萨缪尔·亨廷顿等著《现代化理论与历史经验的再探讨》中文版,上海译文出版社1993年版,第46-47页,第50-51页。
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