乘用车轻量化绿色效应评价理论与方法研究
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摘要
人类第三次面临的可持续发展问题，是资源耗竭、能源耗竭、环境恶化与人口激增一道袭来，因之，问题要严重、复杂得多。人类从三次危机中汲取的教训是，追求绿色效应是人类社会可持续发展的不二法门。绿色效应的广义定义是指，人类以生产、生活中的绿色伦理、理念与行为，减少对自然界的干扰，形成人类社会生态圈，使人类与自然(生物)界和谐共处，有益于人类自身，促使人类社会可持续发展与自然界的生物多样性。绿色效应的狭义定义则是指，在产品的生命周期中采用绿色理念、绿色技术、环境管理技术与相应的环境标准，使产品具有节能、节材、减排、回收重用(熔)功能，从而有利于环境的保护和社会的可持续发展。
2010年中国大陆乘用车保有量为5330.00(万辆)，是1960年的231.74倍；且大陆自主品牌乘用车整备质量的均值较发达国家同类车高8～10%，其年石油消耗量均值是日本同类车的2.5倍，欧洲同类车的2.27倍。因此，2010年中国大陆乘用车保有量消耗的石油占其石油消耗总量的30.46%，占其年石油进口总量的56.26%；该保有量年消耗的铁矿石，分别占中国大陆铁矿石消耗总量和铁矿石进口量48.77%和21.8%；该保有量在其孕育期与运行期内CO2排放量分别占中国大陆同期CO2排放总量的15.33%和4.22%。
为了应对乘用车保有量所引发的上述问题，人们主要采取减轻乘用车的整备质量——乘用车轻量化的方式。虽然降低乘用车的整备质量可以减少乘用车在其使用阶段对能源的消耗和对环境的排放，但从乘用车轻量化的生命周期来看，由于不同的轻量化材料在其生产过程中对资源和能源的消耗和对环境排放的种类和数量均不尽相同。因此，不能够简单地认为乘用车轻量化一定能够产生降低乘用车对资源、能源的消耗和减少对环境的排放效果，即乘用车轻量化的绿色效应一定会提高；而需从生命周期角度出发，对乘用车轻量化的绿色效应给予综合的评价，才能够得出正确的结论，并为国家产业政策的调整提供有益的建议。
本文主要研究的内容如下：
(1)对绿色效应的问题进行了溯源，并提出了乘用车轻量化绿色效应的概念及问题。
(2)以工业工程(IE)消除无效劳动思想对乘用车整备质量进行分析，将乘用车整备质量分解为有效整备质量、无效整备质量和条件无效整备质量；进而提出乘用车轻量化应最大程度地消除无效整备质量，以使乘用车整备质量逐渐趋于其理论极限。
(3)依据乘用车轻量化绿色效应的定义，提出以L2R(轻量化，the Lightweight, L;再使用化，Reusing, R；再循环化，Recycling, R)为准则来追求乘用车轻量化绿色效应，以与可持续发展思想、循环经济契合；并应用目标分解法及相关文献，构建了乘用车轻量化绿色效应评价的指标体系。
(4)提出以4F法(Material Flow, Energy Flow, Environment Factor Flow,Information Flow,)与生命周期评价(Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)耦合，计算乘用车轻量化绿色效应影响因子。
(5)构造了基于欧氏距离的模糊物元法，用以评价、优化乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应。
(6)构造了3组共12个乘用车轻量化方案，用以对不同的乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应进行评价和比较。
在案例研究中，对H型乘用车12个轻量化方案评价的结果表明，作者在本文中提出和采用的乘用车轻量化绿色效应评价理论与方法及所建立的4F—LCA系统是有效的。
(1)H型乘用车轻量化方案绿色效应综合评价的优先排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的绿色效应优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的绿色效应；而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的绿色效应又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁铸件方案(方案3#-1)绿色效应。
(2)由敏感性分析(见本文7.7节)可知，当H型乘用车以铝合金结构白车身和镁合金铸件构造轻量化方案3#-3时，其绿色效应取决于再生铝、镁合金的比例，当再生比例超过60%时，此方案方可成为第3组评价方案中的最优方案。
(3)当再生材料比例不足，方案3#-3的绿色效应不足以满足要求时。此时先进高强度钢结构白车身和再生镁合金铸件轻量化方案的绿色效应为优，其次为先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁合金铸件的绿色效应。
若以单项指标来评价乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应，可得到与上述相似的结论。
(1)H型乘用车轻量化方案的矿产资源耗竭排序为：，
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)对资源的消耗量低于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)，而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)对资源的消耗量又低于原生普钢结构白车身和铸铁件(方案3#-1)。
(2)H型乘用车轻量化方案的能源耗竭排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的节能效果优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)，而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的节能效果又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-4)。
(3)H型乘用车轻量化方案的环境影响潜值排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的减排效果优于原生铝结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-2)，而原生铝结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-2)的减排效果又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)。
Third crisis have been facing by Human on a sustainable development for human society,which has been becoming a complexity and seriousness because of the shocks from theexhaustion of resources, energy, environment and human population. It is the crises that havemade Human learn the lessons from ones of which there is one way only being used to searchgreen-effect for human society’s sustainable development. The generalized definition upongreen-effect is that the green ethics, green ideas and green behavior of human in life andproductive activities are being implemented so that human social ecosphere is beingestablished in which there will be harmonious coexistent situations between human and natureand then between human social sustainable development and natural biodiversity. And therestricted definition on green-effect is that product’s green-effect functions as follows: savingmineral resources, saving energy resources, decreasing environmental discharge amountbecause of being applied green ideas, green techniques, environmental techniques andstandards to the products in order to protect natural environment and human social sustainabledevelopment. In view of this, the facts below about behavior and population being increasedrapidly of passenger cars are a paradox to the definitions of green-effect of passenger cars.
Because the passenger cars population in Chinese mainland have been increasing, onwhich the population are 5330.0 (104 cars) in 2010 that are 231.74– fold as much thepopulation as did in 1960; and the curb mass average of passenger cars of the mainland ownbrand is heavier 8～10% than the same kind of passenger cars of developed country ownbrand, the oil consumption by the passenger cars of the mainland own brand is 2.5– fold asmuch the consumption as Japan own brand one, is 2.27– fold as Europe own brand one.Therefore, the oil consumption by the population is 30.46% as much the oil consumption bythe mainland and the oil consumption by the population is 56.26% as much the oil importamount by the mainland in 2010, the iron ore consumption by the population is 21.8% asmuch the iron ore consumption by the mainland and is 48.77% as much iron ore importamount by the mainland in 2010; CO2 discharge amount by the population during it’s lifecycle and operation is separately 15.3% and 4.22% as much the amount by the mainland. Asmentioned above, an important measure is the Lightweight of passenger cars being resolvedthe problems above. The major fruits and innovations in this paper as follows.
In order to deal with these issues have been caused by the drastic increasementpopulation of passenger cars, the means of reducing curb mass of passenger cars wereemployed. Although the amount of fuel oil can be saved by reducing passenger cars curb massduring use stage, from the Lightweight life cycle perspective of passenger cars, distinctLightweight materials will consume energy resources with different type and quantity. So the result is unclear that the Lightweight of passenger cars can improve its green-effect beforeevaluating from Life Cycle perspective.
In this paper, research content as follow:
(1) The background of green-effect being arisen has been traced to the source and theissues and concept of green-effect upon the Lightweight of passenger cars have been presented
(2) The curb mass of passenger cars has been analyzed based on Industrial Engineering(IE) thinking on eliminating ineffective work and decomposed into effective, ineffective andconditional ineffective curb mass. So the aim of the Light weight of passenger cars is to lowerthe curb mass at utmost degree and make curb mass incline towards it theoretical limitation.
(3) L2R (the Lightweight, L; Reusing, R; Recycle, R) guideline has been advanced inorder to search the green-effect of the Lightweight of passenger cars and to tally with theThinking of the Sustainable Development and Circular Economy; And the evaluating indexsystem has been constructed applying VGOCS(Values-Goals-Objectives-Criterial andStandards) method and related documents.
(4) The coupling method has been advanced between 4F (Material Flow, F; Energy Flow,F; Environment Factor Flow, F; Information Flow, F) and LCA (Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)in order to structure the schemes for the Lightweight of passenger cars being searched thegreen-effect.
(5) The coupling method has being advanced between Euclid Approach Degree and fuzzy– matter element in order to evaluate green-effect of the Lightweight of passenger cars.
In the case study of this paper, the evaluation upon schemes of the Lightweight for H typepassenger cars have indicated the effectualness of the major fruits & innovations, evaluatingtheories & methods and 4F–LCA system being structured. The evaluating results as follows.
(1) The evaluating comprehensively results on the green-effect of H type passenger carare the green-effect of scheme No.3#-3 is better than one of scheme No.3#-5,…, and so on.
(2) As to the scheme No.3#-3 being made of aluminium alloy body in white andmagnesium alloy casting, the balance point (the proportion of recycle aluminium alloy orrecycle magnesium alloy) should be 60%, if the proportion is bigger than 60% , then thescheme No. 3# - 3 green-effect is in optimization.
(3) If the scheme No.3#-3 green-effect is not in optimization, then the Lightweightscheme No.3#-5 green-effect is in optimization being made of AHSS (Advanced High StrengthSteel) BIW (Body in White)—recycle magnesium alloy, and the Lightweight scheme No.3#-4green-effect is in second optimization being made of AHSS BIW proto-magnesium alloy.
And it indicates that the results being evaluating by means of single target of the greeneffectto H type passenger car are below.
(1) The priority order according to the mineral resource’s exhaustion amount (Sbeq.) isthat the mineral resource’s exhaustion amount of scheme No. 3#-3 is better than one of schemeNo. 3#-5,…,and so on.
(2) The priority order according to the energy resource’s exhaustion amount (MJ) are theenergy resource’s exhaustion amount of scheme No.3# - 3 is better than one of scheme No. 3# -5,…, and so on.
(3) The priority order according to the environmental affect potential amount (Env) are theenvironmental affect potential amount of scheme No.3#-3 is better than one of schemeNo.3#-2,…, and so on.
2010年中国大陆乘用车保有量为5330.00(万辆)，是1960年的231.74倍；且大陆自主品牌乘用车整备质量的均值较发达国家同类车高8～10%，其年石油消耗量均值是日本同类车的2.5倍，欧洲同类车的2.27倍。因此，2010年中国大陆乘用车保有量消耗的石油占其石油消耗总量的30.46%，占其年石油进口总量的56.26%；该保有量年消耗的铁矿石，分别占中国大陆铁矿石消耗总量和铁矿石进口量48.77%和21.8%；该保有量在其孕育期与运行期内CO2排放量分别占中国大陆同期CO2排放总量的15.33%和4.22%。
为了应对乘用车保有量所引发的上述问题，人们主要采取减轻乘用车的整备质量——乘用车轻量化的方式。虽然降低乘用车的整备质量可以减少乘用车在其使用阶段对能源的消耗和对环境的排放，但从乘用车轻量化的生命周期来看，由于不同的轻量化材料在其生产过程中对资源和能源的消耗和对环境排放的种类和数量均不尽相同。因此，不能够简单地认为乘用车轻量化一定能够产生降低乘用车对资源、能源的消耗和减少对环境的排放效果，即乘用车轻量化的绿色效应一定会提高；而需从生命周期角度出发，对乘用车轻量化的绿色效应给予综合的评价，才能够得出正确的结论，并为国家产业政策的调整提供有益的建议。
本文主要研究的内容如下：
(1)对绿色效应的问题进行了溯源，并提出了乘用车轻量化绿色效应的概念及问题。
(2)以工业工程(IE)消除无效劳动思想对乘用车整备质量进行分析，将乘用车整备质量分解为有效整备质量、无效整备质量和条件无效整备质量；进而提出乘用车轻量化应最大程度地消除无效整备质量，以使乘用车整备质量逐渐趋于其理论极限。
(3)依据乘用车轻量化绿色效应的定义，提出以L2R(轻量化，the Lightweight, L;再使用化，Reusing, R；再循环化，Recycling, R)为准则来追求乘用车轻量化绿色效应，以与可持续发展思想、循环经济契合；并应用目标分解法及相关文献，构建了乘用车轻量化绿色效应评价的指标体系。
(4)提出以4F法(Material Flow, Energy Flow, Environment Factor Flow,Information Flow,)与生命周期评价(Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)耦合，计算乘用车轻量化绿色效应影响因子。
(5)构造了基于欧氏距离的模糊物元法，用以评价、优化乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应。
(6)构造了3组共12个乘用车轻量化方案，用以对不同的乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应进行评价和比较。
在案例研究中，对H型乘用车12个轻量化方案评价的结果表明，作者在本文中提出和采用的乘用车轻量化绿色效应评价理论与方法及所建立的4F—LCA系统是有效的。
(1)H型乘用车轻量化方案绿色效应综合评价的优先排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的绿色效应优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的绿色效应；而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的绿色效应又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁铸件方案(方案3#-1)绿色效应。
(2)由敏感性分析(见本文7.7节)可知，当H型乘用车以铝合金结构白车身和镁合金铸件构造轻量化方案3#-3时，其绿色效应取决于再生铝、镁合金的比例，当再生比例超过60%时，此方案方可成为第3组评价方案中的最优方案。
(3)当再生材料比例不足，方案3#-3的绿色效应不足以满足要求时。此时先进高强度钢结构白车身和再生镁合金铸件轻量化方案的绿色效应为优，其次为先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁合金铸件的绿色效应。
若以单项指标来评价乘用车轻量化方案的绿色效应，可得到与上述相似的结论。
(1)H型乘用车轻量化方案的矿产资源耗竭排序为：，
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)对资源的消耗量低于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)，而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)对资源的消耗量又低于原生普钢结构白车身和铸铁件(方案3#-1)。
(2)H型乘用车轻量化方案的能源耗竭排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的节能效果优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)，而先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)的节能效果又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-4)。
(3)H型乘用车轻量化方案的环境影响潜值排序为：
全再生铝结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-3)的减排效果优于原生铝结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-2)，而原生铝结构白车身和原生镁铸件(方案3#-2)的减排效果又优于先进高强度钢结构白车身和全再生镁铸件(方案3#-5)。
Third crisis have been facing by Human on a sustainable development for human society,which has been becoming a complexity and seriousness because of the shocks from theexhaustion of resources, energy, environment and human population. It is the crises that havemade Human learn the lessons from ones of which there is one way only being used to searchgreen-effect for human society’s sustainable development. The generalized definition upongreen-effect is that the green ethics, green ideas and green behavior of human in life andproductive activities are being implemented so that human social ecosphere is beingestablished in which there will be harmonious coexistent situations between human and natureand then between human social sustainable development and natural biodiversity. And therestricted definition on green-effect is that product’s green-effect functions as follows: savingmineral resources, saving energy resources, decreasing environmental discharge amountbecause of being applied green ideas, green techniques, environmental techniques andstandards to the products in order to protect natural environment and human social sustainabledevelopment. In view of this, the facts below about behavior and population being increasedrapidly of passenger cars are a paradox to the definitions of green-effect of passenger cars.
Because the passenger cars population in Chinese mainland have been increasing, onwhich the population are 5330.0 (104 cars) in 2010 that are 231.74– fold as much thepopulation as did in 1960; and the curb mass average of passenger cars of the mainland ownbrand is heavier 8～10% than the same kind of passenger cars of developed country ownbrand, the oil consumption by the passenger cars of the mainland own brand is 2.5– fold asmuch the consumption as Japan own brand one, is 2.27– fold as Europe own brand one.Therefore, the oil consumption by the population is 30.46% as much the oil consumption bythe mainland and the oil consumption by the population is 56.26% as much the oil importamount by the mainland in 2010, the iron ore consumption by the population is 21.8% asmuch the iron ore consumption by the mainland and is 48.77% as much iron ore importamount by the mainland in 2010; CO2 discharge amount by the population during it’s lifecycle and operation is separately 15.3% and 4.22% as much the amount by the mainland. Asmentioned above, an important measure is the Lightweight of passenger cars being resolvedthe problems above. The major fruits and innovations in this paper as follows.
In order to deal with these issues have been caused by the drastic increasementpopulation of passenger cars, the means of reducing curb mass of passenger cars wereemployed. Although the amount of fuel oil can be saved by reducing passenger cars curb massduring use stage, from the Lightweight life cycle perspective of passenger cars, distinctLightweight materials will consume energy resources with different type and quantity. So the result is unclear that the Lightweight of passenger cars can improve its green-effect beforeevaluating from Life Cycle perspective.
In this paper, research content as follow:
(1) The background of green-effect being arisen has been traced to the source and theissues and concept of green-effect upon the Lightweight of passenger cars have been presented
(2) The curb mass of passenger cars has been analyzed based on Industrial Engineering(IE) thinking on eliminating ineffective work and decomposed into effective, ineffective andconditional ineffective curb mass. So the aim of the Light weight of passenger cars is to lowerthe curb mass at utmost degree and make curb mass incline towards it theoretical limitation.
(3) L2R (the Lightweight, L; Reusing, R; Recycle, R) guideline has been advanced inorder to search the green-effect of the Lightweight of passenger cars and to tally with theThinking of the Sustainable Development and Circular Economy; And the evaluating indexsystem has been constructed applying VGOCS(Values-Goals-Objectives-Criterial andStandards) method and related documents.
(4) The coupling method has been advanced between 4F (Material Flow, F; Energy Flow,F; Environment Factor Flow, F; Information Flow, F) and LCA (Life Cycle Assessment, LCA)in order to structure the schemes for the Lightweight of passenger cars being searched thegreen-effect.
(5) The coupling method has being advanced between Euclid Approach Degree and fuzzy– matter element in order to evaluate green-effect of the Lightweight of passenger cars.
In the case study of this paper, the evaluation upon schemes of the Lightweight for H typepassenger cars have indicated the effectualness of the major fruits & innovations, evaluatingtheories & methods and 4F–LCA system being structured. The evaluating results as follows.
(1) The evaluating comprehensively results on the green-effect of H type passenger carare the green-effect of scheme No.3#-3 is better than one of scheme No.3#-5,…, and so on.
(2) As to the scheme No.3#-3 being made of aluminium alloy body in white andmagnesium alloy casting, the balance point (the proportion of recycle aluminium alloy orrecycle magnesium alloy) should be 60%, if the proportion is bigger than 60% , then thescheme No. 3# - 3 green-effect is in optimization.
(3) If the scheme No.3#-3 green-effect is not in optimization, then the Lightweightscheme No.3#-5 green-effect is in optimization being made of AHSS (Advanced High StrengthSteel) BIW (Body in White)—recycle magnesium alloy, and the Lightweight scheme No.3#-4green-effect is in second optimization being made of AHSS BIW proto-magnesium alloy.
And it indicates that the results being evaluating by means of single target of the greeneffectto H type passenger car are below.
(1) The priority order according to the mineral resource’s exhaustion amount (Sbeq.) isthat the mineral resource’s exhaustion amount of scheme No. 3#-3 is better than one of schemeNo. 3#-5,…,and so on.
(2) The priority order according to the energy resource’s exhaustion amount (MJ) are theenergy resource’s exhaustion amount of scheme No.3# - 3 is better than one of scheme No. 3# -5,…, and so on.
(3) The priority order according to the environmental affect potential amount (Env) are theenvironmental affect potential amount of scheme No.3#-3 is better than one of schemeNo.3#-2,…, and so on.
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