光伏发电系统的蒙特卡罗序贯仿真和可靠性分析
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摘要
随着太阳电池和电力电子技术的不断进步，太阳能发电技术得到长足发展。发展光伏发电技术成为太阳能利用的主流。光伏转换技术被广泛认为是最有前途的再生能源技术，可以提供足够的能源供应，同时降低温室气体的排放。世界各国相继加大力度进行光伏研发项目和市场开拓。
太阳能发电和常规能源发电不同，它具有随机不确定性，而这种时变性又增加了系统的不稳定因素。这使得人们希望对其一段时间内的工作状况有所把握。本文的重点是运用概率抽样描述这种不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗序贯仿真对光伏发电各环节状态进行概率模拟，并计算相关可靠性指标。首先研究了各种影响太阳一次能源变化的因素，考虑因素之间的相互作用，采用按时间序贯仿真各小时太阳电池的出力。接着本文运用蒙特卡罗序贯的方法，模拟了光伏电站内部各元件的工作及故障检修的顺序，提出了阵列组件的检修判据，并仿真计算了独立光伏系统工作的各项可靠性指标。最后，进行了光伏并网系统研究，考虑不同的线路及保护随机故障动作，和多变的系统运行方式，结合配电网进行相关的可靠性经济性指标计算。
在理论研究的基础上，本文开发完成了“光伏发电系统可靠性分析软件”，可做进一步研究之用。
With the development of the solar cell and power electronics, photovoltaic system has grown up and become the main way on using the solar energy. Photovoltaic energy conversion is widely considered as one of the more promising renewable energy technologies which has the potential to contribute significantly to a sustainable energy supply and which may help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason there is a growing support from governments for photovoltaic R&D programs and market introduction schemes.
Stochastic nature is the main difference between photovoltaic system and conventional energy. Because the time dependence characteristics of photovoltaic system enhance the instability of system, it is desired to grasp the work status at a given time-interval. This paper focuses attention on using probabilistic simulation to describe this stochastic nature, and adopts the Sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate each element status in photovoltaic system, and calculating responded reliability indices. Firstly, this paper considers the interaction among factors, which may have effect on the solar cell power output , the solar cell output power every hour is simulated in time sequence. And then, the paper simulates the work status and the failure status of each component in photovoltaic station, and puts forward the criterion to repair photovoltaic array, and calculates reliability indices of the stand-alone PV system. At last grid-connected PV system has also been studied, different random faults in line and protection which bring the change of operating patterns have been taken account for, indices of reliability and economics have been computed in distribution system.
On the basis of algorithms study, a software package named "Photovoltaic system reliability analysis planning" is developed, which can be used for further research.
太阳能发电和常规能源发电不同，它具有随机不确定性，而这种时变性又增加了系统的不稳定因素。这使得人们希望对其一段时间内的工作状况有所把握。本文的重点是运用概率抽样描述这种不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗序贯仿真对光伏发电各环节状态进行概率模拟，并计算相关可靠性指标。首先研究了各种影响太阳一次能源变化的因素，考虑因素之间的相互作用，采用按时间序贯仿真各小时太阳电池的出力。接着本文运用蒙特卡罗序贯的方法，模拟了光伏电站内部各元件的工作及故障检修的顺序，提出了阵列组件的检修判据，并仿真计算了独立光伏系统工作的各项可靠性指标。最后，进行了光伏并网系统研究，考虑不同的线路及保护随机故障动作，和多变的系统运行方式，结合配电网进行相关的可靠性经济性指标计算。
在理论研究的基础上，本文开发完成了“光伏发电系统可靠性分析软件”，可做进一步研究之用。
With the development of the solar cell and power electronics, photovoltaic system has grown up and become the main way on using the solar energy. Photovoltaic energy conversion is widely considered as one of the more promising renewable energy technologies which has the potential to contribute significantly to a sustainable energy supply and which may help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason there is a growing support from governments for photovoltaic R&D programs and market introduction schemes.
Stochastic nature is the main difference between photovoltaic system and conventional energy. Because the time dependence characteristics of photovoltaic system enhance the instability of system, it is desired to grasp the work status at a given time-interval. This paper focuses attention on using probabilistic simulation to describe this stochastic nature, and adopts the Sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate each element status in photovoltaic system, and calculating responded reliability indices. Firstly, this paper considers the interaction among factors, which may have effect on the solar cell power output , the solar cell output power every hour is simulated in time sequence. And then, the paper simulates the work status and the failure status of each component in photovoltaic station, and puts forward the criterion to repair photovoltaic array, and calculates reliability indices of the stand-alone PV system. At last grid-connected PV system has also been studied, different random faults in line and protection which bring the change of operating patterns have been taken account for, indices of reliability and economics have been computed in distribution system.
On the basis of algorithms study, a software package named "Photovoltaic system reliability analysis planning" is developed, which can be used for further research.
引文
[1] Singh, et al. Can solar photovoltaic become the major source of energy for village electrification and significantly contribute towards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century? 2nd World Conference and Exhibition on Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conversion[c], 1998: 3313-3316
[2] 杨金焕，陈中华，21世纪太阳能发电的展望，上海电力学院学报，2001，17 (4)
[3] 宁铎，高继春，发展太阳能光伏发电的意义及前景，西北轻工业学院学报，2002，20
[4] 南映景，可持续发展战略中的太阳能——能源、发展、环境，1997，12
[5] WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development), Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University, 1987
[6] IUCN (World Conservation Union), World Wide Fund for Nature, United Nation Environmental Programme, Caring for the Earth, London: Earthscan, 1991
[7] 王微，我国开发太阳能资源综述，1997，6
[8] Gabler H, Grid-connected photovoltaic[J], Solar Energy, 2001, 70(6): 455-456
[9] Kurokawa K, IKKi O, The Japanese experiences with national PV system programmes[J], Solar Energy, 2001, 70 (6): 457-466
[10] Haas R, et al, Socio-economic aspects of the Austrian 200KW photovoltaic rooftop programme[J], Solar Energy, 1999, 66 (3): 183-191
[11] Chihchiang Hua, Jongrong Lin, Chihrning Shen, Implementation of a DSP-controlled photovoltaic system with peak power tracking, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 45(1): 99-107
[12] Martina Calais, hartmut Hinz, A Ripple-based maximum power point tracking algorithm for a single-phase, grid-connected photovoltaic system, Solar Energy, 63(5): 277-282
[13] R.Adjakou, C.Lishou, N.Dieye, L.Protin, Using state-space representation for the modellisation of photovoltaic system, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 124 (2001): 129-138
[14] Wagdy r, Anis, M.abdul-sadek nour, energy losses in photovoltaic system, EnergyConvers., 36(11): 1107-1113
[15] Youichi Hirata, Tutomu Inasaka, Tatsuo Tani, Output variation ofphotovoltaic modules with environmental factors-Ⅱ: Seasonal variation, Solar Energy, 63(3): 185-189
[16] B.Moshfegh, M.Sandberg, flow and heat transfer in the air gap behind photovoltaic panals, Renerable and Sustainable, Energy Reviews, 2 (1998): 287-301
[17] Ahmad, Y.al-hasan, A New correlation for direct beam solar radiation received by photovoltaic panel with sand dust accumulated on its surface, Solar Energy, 63(5): 323-333
[18] F.Bonanno, A.Consoli, A.Raciti, B.Morgana, U.Nocera, Transient analysis of integrated diesel-wind-photovoltaic generation systems, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 14 (2): 232-238
[19] M.Sidrach-de-Cardona, L1.Mora L(?)pez, performance analysis of a grid-connected photovoltaic system, Energy, 24 (1999): 93-102
[20] J.Milias-Argitis, Th.Zacharias, transient phenomena of RLC circuits-the photovoltaic input, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, 55(1998): 363-378
[21] Charles Iskander, Edward Scerri, Interfacing a solar photovoltaic system with the national electricing grid in malta, Renewable Energy, 15 (1998): 577-580
[22] A.GROSS, J.BOGENSPERGER, D.THYR, Impacts of large scale photovoltaic systems on the low voltage network, Solar Energy, 59 (4-6): 143-149
[23] G.A.Vokas, A.V.Machias, Harmonic Voltages and Currents on Two Greek Islands with Photovoltaic Station: study and field measurements, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 10(2): 302-306
[24] AMIT JAIN, S.C.TRIPATHY, R.BALAS UBRAMANIAN. Reliability and Economic Snalysis of a Power Generation System Including a Photovoltaic System. Energy Convers. 36(3): 183-189.
[25] OMAR ELSAMMANI IBRAHIM. Load matching to photovoltaic generations. Renewable Energy. 6(1): 29-34.
[26] Imad bouzahr, R.Ramakumar. Loss of Power Supply Probability of Stand-alone Photovoltaic Systems. IEEE 1991; 6(1): 1～11
[27] Wrixon GT, McCrathy S. Optimization and analysis of photovoltaic system using a computer model. IEEE 1988; 2: 1293-7.
[28] 方荣生、项立成、李亭寒、陈小霓．太阳能应用技术．中国农业机械出版社．1985
[29] 李安定．太阳能光伏发电系统工程．北京工业大学出版社．2001．
[30] 方荣生，项立成，李亭寒等．太阳能应用技术．北京：中国农业机械出版社．1985
[31] 胡列群，塔克拉玛干沙漠及周围地区直接太阳辐射研究，干旱区研究，1996，13(3)
[32] 王尧奇，韦志刚，河西地区的太阳直接辐射和大气透明度，气象学报，1995，53(3)
[33] 刘强，王明星，李晶，张仁健，大气气溶胶研究现状和发展趋势，中国粉体技术，1999，5(3)
[34] Y. SuKamongKol, S. Chungpaibulpatana, W. OngsaKul, A simulation model for predicting the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with alternating current loads. Renewable Energy. 2002(27): 237-258
[35] 杨金焕，汪征，陈中华等．负载缺电率用于独立光伏系统的最优化设计．太阳能学报，1999，20(1)：93～99
[36] 洪梅，大型电力系统可靠性评估中的元件建模及算法研究，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，1997，5．
[37] 黄凯，交直流混合电力系统概率稳定性研究，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，2002，5．
[38] 概率论与数理统计，上海科学技术出版社，1997，7．
[39] 李生虎，电力系统可靠性评估的算法研究及软件设计，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，2000，1．
[40] 刘恩科，光电池及其应用，北京科学出版社，1989：97
[41] 黎明等，太阳能电池参数的数值提取方法，北京师范大学学报，1999，35(2)
[42] Kaura V, Blasco V.Openration of voltage source converter at increased utility voltage[J]. IEEE Trans Power Electron, 1997, 12(1): 132—137.
[43] 张兴，张崇巍，孙本新，采用电流寻优的MPPT光伏阵列并网逆变器的研究，太阳能学报，2001，22(3)．
[44] H.Karl. ~nphotovoltaicsche Systeme-Grundlagen Zur Dimensionierung und Zum Bitrieb. Dissertations, Institut f(?)r theorie der Elektrotechnik, universit(?)t Stuttgart, 1984
[45] 丁明，戴仁昶，洪梅，徐先勇，影响输电网可靠性的气候条件模拟，电力系统自动化，1997，1
[46] IEEE Reliability Test System. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and System, 1979, Vol. PAS-98, No.6 Nov./Dec: 2047-2048
[47] Haley P H, Ayres M. Super decoupled load flow with distribution slack bus. IEEE Trans. PAS 1985; 104(1): 104-133
[48] 鄢长春，张焰，陈章潮，基于节点注入电流模型的配电网潮流算法，电力系统自动化，1999，23(17)：31-34
[49] 张学松，柳焯，于尔铿，刘广一，配电网追赶法潮流，中国电机工程学报，1997，17(6)：382-385
[50] 孙宏斌，张伯明，相年德，配电潮流前推回推法的收敛性研究，中国电机工程学报，1999，19(7)：26-29
[51] Roy Bilinton. Satish Jonnavithula. A Test System For Teaching Overall Power System Reliability Assessment. IEEE Transactions on Power System, 1996, 11(4): 1670-1676
[2] 杨金焕，陈中华，21世纪太阳能发电的展望，上海电力学院学报，2001，17 (4)
[3] 宁铎，高继春，发展太阳能光伏发电的意义及前景，西北轻工业学院学报，2002，20
[4] 南映景，可持续发展战略中的太阳能——能源、发展、环境，1997，12
[5] WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development), Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University, 1987
[6] IUCN (World Conservation Union), World Wide Fund for Nature, United Nation Environmental Programme, Caring for the Earth, London: Earthscan, 1991
[7] 王微，我国开发太阳能资源综述，1997，6
[8] Gabler H, Grid-connected photovoltaic[J], Solar Energy, 2001, 70(6): 455-456
[9] Kurokawa K, IKKi O, The Japanese experiences with national PV system programmes[J], Solar Energy, 2001, 70 (6): 457-466
[10] Haas R, et al, Socio-economic aspects of the Austrian 200KW photovoltaic rooftop programme[J], Solar Energy, 1999, 66 (3): 183-191
[11] Chihchiang Hua, Jongrong Lin, Chihrning Shen, Implementation of a DSP-controlled photovoltaic system with peak power tracking, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 45(1): 99-107
[12] Martina Calais, hartmut Hinz, A Ripple-based maximum power point tracking algorithm for a single-phase, grid-connected photovoltaic system, Solar Energy, 63(5): 277-282
[13] R.Adjakou, C.Lishou, N.Dieye, L.Protin, Using state-space representation for the modellisation of photovoltaic system, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 124 (2001): 129-138
[14] Wagdy r, Anis, M.abdul-sadek nour, energy losses in photovoltaic system, EnergyConvers., 36(11): 1107-1113
[15] Youichi Hirata, Tutomu Inasaka, Tatsuo Tani, Output variation ofphotovoltaic modules with environmental factors-Ⅱ: Seasonal variation, Solar Energy, 63(3): 185-189
[16] B.Moshfegh, M.Sandberg, flow and heat transfer in the air gap behind photovoltaic panals, Renerable and Sustainable, Energy Reviews, 2 (1998): 287-301
[17] Ahmad, Y.al-hasan, A New correlation for direct beam solar radiation received by photovoltaic panel with sand dust accumulated on its surface, Solar Energy, 63(5): 323-333
[18] F.Bonanno, A.Consoli, A.Raciti, B.Morgana, U.Nocera, Transient analysis of integrated diesel-wind-photovoltaic generation systems, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 14 (2): 232-238
[19] M.Sidrach-de-Cardona, L1.Mora L(?)pez, performance analysis of a grid-connected photovoltaic system, Energy, 24 (1999): 93-102
[20] J.Milias-Argitis, Th.Zacharias, transient phenomena of RLC circuits-the photovoltaic input, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, 55(1998): 363-378
[21] Charles Iskander, Edward Scerri, Interfacing a solar photovoltaic system with the national electricing grid in malta, Renewable Energy, 15 (1998): 577-580
[22] A.GROSS, J.BOGENSPERGER, D.THYR, Impacts of large scale photovoltaic systems on the low voltage network, Solar Energy, 59 (4-6): 143-149
[23] G.A.Vokas, A.V.Machias, Harmonic Voltages and Currents on Two Greek Islands with Photovoltaic Station: study and field measurements, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 10(2): 302-306
[24] AMIT JAIN, S.C.TRIPATHY, R.BALAS UBRAMANIAN. Reliability and Economic Snalysis of a Power Generation System Including a Photovoltaic System. Energy Convers. 36(3): 183-189.
[25] OMAR ELSAMMANI IBRAHIM. Load matching to photovoltaic generations. Renewable Energy. 6(1): 29-34.
[26] Imad bouzahr, R.Ramakumar. Loss of Power Supply Probability of Stand-alone Photovoltaic Systems. IEEE 1991; 6(1): 1～11
[27] Wrixon GT, McCrathy S. Optimization and analysis of photovoltaic system using a computer model. IEEE 1988; 2: 1293-7.
[28] 方荣生、项立成、李亭寒、陈小霓．太阳能应用技术．中国农业机械出版社．1985
[29] 李安定．太阳能光伏发电系统工程．北京工业大学出版社．2001．
[30] 方荣生，项立成，李亭寒等．太阳能应用技术．北京：中国农业机械出版社．1985
[31] 胡列群，塔克拉玛干沙漠及周围地区直接太阳辐射研究，干旱区研究，1996，13(3)
[32] 王尧奇，韦志刚，河西地区的太阳直接辐射和大气透明度，气象学报，1995，53(3)
[33] 刘强，王明星，李晶，张仁健，大气气溶胶研究现状和发展趋势，中国粉体技术，1999，5(3)
[34] Y. SuKamongKol, S. Chungpaibulpatana, W. OngsaKul, A simulation model for predicting the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with alternating current loads. Renewable Energy. 2002(27): 237-258
[35] 杨金焕，汪征，陈中华等．负载缺电率用于独立光伏系统的最优化设计．太阳能学报，1999，20(1)：93～99
[36] 洪梅，大型电力系统可靠性评估中的元件建模及算法研究，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，1997，5．
[37] 黄凯，交直流混合电力系统概率稳定性研究，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，2002，5．
[38] 概率论与数理统计，上海科学技术出版社，1997，7．
[39] 李生虎，电力系统可靠性评估的算法研究及软件设计，合肥工业大学硕士学位论文，2000，1．
[40] 刘恩科，光电池及其应用，北京科学出版社，1989：97
[41] 黎明等，太阳能电池参数的数值提取方法，北京师范大学学报，1999，35(2)
[42] Kaura V, Blasco V.Openration of voltage source converter at increased utility voltage[J]. IEEE Trans Power Electron, 1997, 12(1): 132—137.
[43] 张兴，张崇巍，孙本新，采用电流寻优的MPPT光伏阵列并网逆变器的研究，太阳能学报，2001，22(3)．
[44] H.Karl. ~nphotovoltaicsche Systeme-Grundlagen Zur Dimensionierung und Zum Bitrieb. Dissertations, Institut f(?)r theorie der Elektrotechnik, universit(?)t Stuttgart, 1984
[45] 丁明，戴仁昶，洪梅，徐先勇，影响输电网可靠性的气候条件模拟，电力系统自动化，1997，1
[46] IEEE Reliability Test System. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and System, 1979, Vol. PAS-98, No.6 Nov./Dec: 2047-2048
[47] Haley P H, Ayres M. Super decoupled load flow with distribution slack bus. IEEE Trans. PAS 1985; 104(1): 104-133
[48] 鄢长春，张焰，陈章潮，基于节点注入电流模型的配电网潮流算法，电力系统自动化，1999，23(17)：31-34
[49] 张学松，柳焯，于尔铿，刘广一，配电网追赶法潮流，中国电机工程学报，1997，17(6)：382-385
[50] 孙宏斌，张伯明，相年德，配电潮流前推回推法的收敛性研究，中国电机工程学报，1999，19(7)：26-29
[51] Roy Bilinton. Satish Jonnavithula. A Test System For Teaching Overall Power System Reliability Assessment. IEEE Transactions on Power System, 1996, 11(4): 1670-1676
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