中国能源强度变动的成因及效应研究
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摘要
能源强度作为反映能源效率水平的一个综合性指标,不仅受经济结构和能源经济效率的变化影响,而且也受到能源结构、资源禀赋、能源价格机制、经济体制及人口等结构因素的影响。同时,能源强度的变化对能源政策的制定及环境质量都将会产生一定的影响。本文以规范研究与实证分析相结合,采用定性与定量分析的方法,针对中国能源强度变动的影响因素、能源强度变动的效应等问题进行研究与分析,提出能源强度变动的多因素、多层次的分析方法,构建了研究能源消费反弹效应的理论研究框架,研究了能源、经济与环境间的关联关系,建立了空间环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,为能源强度变动的成因及效应的研究提供理论和方法上的支持。本文主要工作如下：
(1)能源强度变动的成因研究。提出包含产业结构份额、部门能源效率份额和能源结构份额的三因素几何均值能源强度分解模型,该模型不仅能够将能源消费结构对能源强度的影响从产业结构和部门效率份额中分离出来,而且克服了当数据集合中出现零值时,现有处理方法产生较大误差的缺点,提供了一种精度较高的多因素能源强度分解方法。针对区域能源强度受多因素的影响,数据中包含了截面、时间与空间纵横交错的信息这一特征,构建了能够反映中国区域能源强度及其影响因素之间集群特征的向量面板数据的协整与误差修正模型,定量研究了影响区域能源强度变动的长期因素和短期因素。这一模型将区域问题的研究由二维结构系统推广到多维结构系统,充分挖掘样本信息,克服了截面模型和时序模型的设定偏差及多重共线性问题。建立了多因素、多层次研究能源强度变动成因的理论框架体系。
(2)能源强度变动的效应研究。基于反弹效应概念的内涵,提出能源消费反弹效应的测算方法,该方法揭示了能源价格对能源强度变动的影响机制,建立了要素替代效应理论研究与能源强度变动效应理论研究的联系,由此形成了研究由替代效应所产生的反弹效应的理论分析框架。基于可持续发展思想和投入产出弹性系数的研究方法,本文将部门终端能源消费的研究与产业关联研究结合起来,提出部门能源消费影响力弹性系数和感应度弹性系数概念,并通过计算方法的数理推导阐明了其经济含义,给出根据两类弹性系数值对部门能源消费进行分类和确定能源消费关键部门的方法。
(3)能源强度变动的环境影响与空间环境库兹涅茨曲线研究。本文构建了能源、环境关联模型和能源、经济与环境关联模型,运用对比分析的方法,研究了能源强度变动及经济增长的环境影响。运用空间经济计量模型与方法研究以C02排放作为环境污染指标的中国及周边国家或地区的环境库兹涅茨曲线。该模型方法将能源消费与环境问题置于统一框架下来进行研究,考虑了经济及环境问题中的空间外溢性。它不仅能够克服常用方法中参数估计所产生的有偏和不一致问题,而且能够解释为什么在估计环境库兹涅茨曲线时,数据子集产生不稳定现象,为研究环境问题提供了新的工具。
As a comprehensive index of reflecting energy efficiency, not only was energy intensity effected by economic structure and energy efficiency, but also was effected by energy structure, resource, mechanism of energy price, economic system and so on. At the same time, the change of energy intensity will affect energy policy and environmental quality a lot.This dissertation, combining normal research and empirical analysis, applying qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, emphasizes on the influencing factors and effects of energy intensity changing. Contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Influencial factors of energy intensity changes. This dissertation proposes a decomposition model containing industrial structure share, sectoral energy efficiency share and energy consumption structure share and chooses the geometric mean as the weight coefficient of the decomposition model. The model successfully separates the energy structure share from the economic structure share and energy intensity share, overcomes the shortcoming when the data set appears in the zero value causing greater error and presentes a multi-factor decomposition method being of exact accuracy. Due to the multi-factors which influence regional energy intensity, the data contain the cross-section, time and space crossing information with a multi-dimensional characteristics. This dissertation sets up a vector panel data cointegration and error correction model which can reflect the regional energy intensity and the clustering characteristics of the influential factors. It quantitatively studies the long and short term factors which influence the changes of regional energy intensity. This model focus on the study of regional energy intensity issue, spreads the two-dimensional structure to multi-dimensional structure, fully diges the sample information and overcome the cross-section model and time series model on setting bias and multicollinearity problems.
2. Effect of energy intensity changes. This dissertation proposes the calculating method based on the concept of energy consumption rebound effect. The method reveals the influence mechanism of energy price on changes in energy intensity and sets up the relationship between the theory of factor substitution effects and the effect of changes in energy intensity. Therefore, a theoretical analysis framework of measuring the rebound effect which is generated by the substitution effect can be obtained. Based on the study methods of input-output elasticity, this dissertation combines the study of energy consumption with the study of industry association, define the concepts of sectoral energy consumption elasticity coefficient, calculate the mathematical derivation to proof its economic implications and put forward the method on indentifying the sectoral energy consumption and confirming the main sector of energy consumption according to the above two elasticity coefficient. According to this approach, it is more pertinent to formulate industrial and energy policy and keep sustainable economic development as well as the sustainable use of energy.
3. The environmental impact of energy intensity changes and the study of spatial environmental Kuznets curve. This dissertation constructs the associated model of energy, economy and the environment, studies the environmental influence which results from the changes of energy intensity and the economic growth, and make up for the deficiencies of the existing studies. By using spatial econometric model and method, the dissertation studies the Environmental Kuzbets Curve(EKC) which uses the emission of CO2 due to energy consumption as the index of China and the around countries and regions. The model and the method putes energy consumption and the environmental issues into a unified framework to research, considering the spillover space in the economic and environmental problems. It is not only able to overcome the issue resulting from biased and inconsistent in the common parameter estimation, but also able to explain the instability of the subset when estimating the EKC.
(1)能源强度变动的成因研究。提出包含产业结构份额、部门能源效率份额和能源结构份额的三因素几何均值能源强度分解模型,该模型不仅能够将能源消费结构对能源强度的影响从产业结构和部门效率份额中分离出来,而且克服了当数据集合中出现零值时,现有处理方法产生较大误差的缺点,提供了一种精度较高的多因素能源强度分解方法。针对区域能源强度受多因素的影响,数据中包含了截面、时间与空间纵横交错的信息这一特征,构建了能够反映中国区域能源强度及其影响因素之间集群特征的向量面板数据的协整与误差修正模型,定量研究了影响区域能源强度变动的长期因素和短期因素。这一模型将区域问题的研究由二维结构系统推广到多维结构系统,充分挖掘样本信息,克服了截面模型和时序模型的设定偏差及多重共线性问题。建立了多因素、多层次研究能源强度变动成因的理论框架体系。
(2)能源强度变动的效应研究。基于反弹效应概念的内涵,提出能源消费反弹效应的测算方法,该方法揭示了能源价格对能源强度变动的影响机制,建立了要素替代效应理论研究与能源强度变动效应理论研究的联系,由此形成了研究由替代效应所产生的反弹效应的理论分析框架。基于可持续发展思想和投入产出弹性系数的研究方法,本文将部门终端能源消费的研究与产业关联研究结合起来,提出部门能源消费影响力弹性系数和感应度弹性系数概念,并通过计算方法的数理推导阐明了其经济含义,给出根据两类弹性系数值对部门能源消费进行分类和确定能源消费关键部门的方法。
(3)能源强度变动的环境影响与空间环境库兹涅茨曲线研究。本文构建了能源、环境关联模型和能源、经济与环境关联模型,运用对比分析的方法,研究了能源强度变动及经济增长的环境影响。运用空间经济计量模型与方法研究以C02排放作为环境污染指标的中国及周边国家或地区的环境库兹涅茨曲线。该模型方法将能源消费与环境问题置于统一框架下来进行研究,考虑了经济及环境问题中的空间外溢性。它不仅能够克服常用方法中参数估计所产生的有偏和不一致问题,而且能够解释为什么在估计环境库兹涅茨曲线时,数据子集产生不稳定现象,为研究环境问题提供了新的工具。
As a comprehensive index of reflecting energy efficiency, not only was energy intensity effected by economic structure and energy efficiency, but also was effected by energy structure, resource, mechanism of energy price, economic system and so on. At the same time, the change of energy intensity will affect energy policy and environmental quality a lot.This dissertation, combining normal research and empirical analysis, applying qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, emphasizes on the influencing factors and effects of energy intensity changing. Contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Influencial factors of energy intensity changes. This dissertation proposes a decomposition model containing industrial structure share, sectoral energy efficiency share and energy consumption structure share and chooses the geometric mean as the weight coefficient of the decomposition model. The model successfully separates the energy structure share from the economic structure share and energy intensity share, overcomes the shortcoming when the data set appears in the zero value causing greater error and presentes a multi-factor decomposition method being of exact accuracy. Due to the multi-factors which influence regional energy intensity, the data contain the cross-section, time and space crossing information with a multi-dimensional characteristics. This dissertation sets up a vector panel data cointegration and error correction model which can reflect the regional energy intensity and the clustering characteristics of the influential factors. It quantitatively studies the long and short term factors which influence the changes of regional energy intensity. This model focus on the study of regional energy intensity issue, spreads the two-dimensional structure to multi-dimensional structure, fully diges the sample information and overcome the cross-section model and time series model on setting bias and multicollinearity problems.
2. Effect of energy intensity changes. This dissertation proposes the calculating method based on the concept of energy consumption rebound effect. The method reveals the influence mechanism of energy price on changes in energy intensity and sets up the relationship between the theory of factor substitution effects and the effect of changes in energy intensity. Therefore, a theoretical analysis framework of measuring the rebound effect which is generated by the substitution effect can be obtained. Based on the study methods of input-output elasticity, this dissertation combines the study of energy consumption with the study of industry association, define the concepts of sectoral energy consumption elasticity coefficient, calculate the mathematical derivation to proof its economic implications and put forward the method on indentifying the sectoral energy consumption and confirming the main sector of energy consumption according to the above two elasticity coefficient. According to this approach, it is more pertinent to formulate industrial and energy policy and keep sustainable economic development as well as the sustainable use of energy.
3. The environmental impact of energy intensity changes and the study of spatial environmental Kuznets curve. This dissertation constructs the associated model of energy, economy and the environment, studies the environmental influence which results from the changes of energy intensity and the economic growth, and make up for the deficiencies of the existing studies. By using spatial econometric model and method, the dissertation studies the Environmental Kuzbets Curve(EKC) which uses the emission of CO2 due to energy consumption as the index of China and the around countries and regions. The model and the method putes energy consumption and the environmental issues into a unified framework to research, considering the spillover space in the economic and environmental problems. It is not only able to overcome the issue resulting from biased and inconsistent in the common parameter estimation, but also able to explain the instability of the subset when estimating the EKC.
引文
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