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中国农村小额信贷风险管理研究
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摘要
小额信贷于20世纪70年代发端于孟加拉国,旨在面向贫困人口提供金融服务,是农村扶贫的一种有效金融工具。90年代初,我国引入小额信贷,经过十多年的发展,已经历了四个阶段:一是小额信贷试点的初期阶段;二是小额信贷项目的扩展阶段;三是全面试行推广小额信贷阶段;四是进入探索“商业性小额信贷”的全新阶段。随着我国小额信贷蓬勃发展,已经形成了非政府组织(NGO)小额信贷、农行/农发行(国有银行)开展的扶贫贴息小额信贷、农村信用社系统的小额信贷、城市商业银行和担保公司开展的小额信贷项目、只贷不存的小额贷款公司开展的小额信贷、邮政储蓄银行开展的小额信贷、村镇银行小额信贷、农村资金互助社开展的小额信贷、股份制商业银行小额信贷等多种类型的小额信贷。小额信贷,在扶贫领域取得了令人瞩目的成就,在解决农户贷款难问题、支持农村经济发展、促进农民增收等方面发挥了重要而积极的作用,受到了广大农户的普遍欢迎。然而,我国农村小额信贷业务的可持续发展也面临着诸多的问题,其中最为突出的难点在于小额信贷的各种风险(比如信用风险、利率风险、市场风险、自然风险、操作风险等),直接导致我国农户小额贷款困难,农户小额信贷市场普遍存在低覆盖率,难以满足农村经济发展的需要。我国农村小额信贷风险能否得到有效管理和化解,不仅关系到小额信贷机构的生存和发展以及农户增收的扶持资金能否得到保障,而且关系到农村信贷市场秩序稳定以及农户小额信贷今后可持续发展,最终影响到我国的社会主义新农村建设进程。
     本文从中国农村小额信贷风险状况出发,以风险管理理论为基础,重点研究了中国农村小额信贷的利率风险及管理;从中国农村小额信贷机构治理结构入手,分析其要解决的委托代理问题和内部人控制问题,并从小额信贷机构主体角度提出风险管理的方法;分析小额信贷客户信用等级评分方法及信用卡评分模型,按照评分等级进行小额信贷风险管理;介绍国际小额信贷成功监管方式,分析中国小额信贷机构监管面临的挑战,借鉴国际小额信贷机构成功监管经验,提出中国小额信贷机构有效监管框架;通过小额信贷风险形成原因分析,最终提出中国农村小额信贷风险控制策略。论文既包括小额信贷风险的基本理论,又包括小额信贷风险管理的实践探索;既有我国农村小额信贷风险现状、类型的考察,又有小额信贷风险形成原因的分析及采取的相应对策;既介绍了小额信贷风险量化的理论模型,也对中国农村小额信贷风险进行了实证分析;在此基础上,建立与我国实际情况相符合的农村小额信贷风险管理体系,进一步促进中国农村小额信贷的可持续发展。本文具体内容的安排如下:
     第一章:导论。阐述中国国农村小额信贷风险管理的选题背景、研究目的和意义、研究思路和方法以及本论文的可能创新之处。
     第二章:小额信贷风险管理基础理论。介绍了小额信贷的相关理论基础;对国内外小额信贷风险管理的文献进行了较为系统的梳理,并对国际国内小额信贷风险管理理论和实践进行介绍性评价。
     第三章:中国农村小额信贷风险状况及风险管理问题。介绍了中国农村小额信贷发展的历史沿革和发展现状;实证考察了非政府组织小额信贷机构、农村信用社、村镇银行、小额贷款公司开展小额信贷的具体情况及风险状况,分析了小额信贷机构信贷风险和风险管理存在的主要问题。
     第四章:中国农村小额信贷利率分析及风险管理。介绍了小额信贷利率机制和测算方法,重点分析了农户小额信贷利率的理论模型,得出结论:小额信贷机构进行风险控制,必须提高利率水平;通过案例分析,农户可以接受的利率水平在20%-30%。
     第五章:中国农村小额信贷机构治理与风险管理。从小额信贷机构的治理结构入手,分析其要解决的委托代理问题和内部人控制问题以及治理结构框架问题;论述了小额信贷机构的内部控制和内部审计,做好小额信贷机构的风险管理。
     第六章:中国小额信贷机构评估与客户信用等级评分管理。小额信贷机构评估和客户信用等级评分,是小额信贷机构自身风险管理和客户信用风险控制的重要前提和基础。本章具体论述了小额信贷机构评估的方法,分析小额信贷客户信用等级评分的可行性和必要性,并通过建立信用评分卡模型和应用,以及建立评分政策和在操作上监督,来控制小额信贷信用风险。
     第七章:中国农村小额信贷的有效监管。介绍了国际小额信贷机构监管的原则和成功经验;分析了中国小额信贷机构有效监管框架和审慎监管准则,以及小额信贷机构监管面临的挑战。
     第八章:中国农村小额信贷风险管理策略。介绍了农村小额信贷风险表现形式,并分析小额信贷风险产生的原因;分析比较国内外小额信贷风险控制模式;最终提出中国农村小额信贷风险管理策略。
Microfinance was originated from Bangladesh in the1970s, to face poverty populationto provide financial services.It is a kind of effective financial instrument to help poverty. In90s, microfinance was introduced to the our country.After more than10years development,our country microfinance experienced four stages: one is the microfinance first stage; two ismicrofinance project extension stages; Three is the comprehensive trial promotionmicrofinance stage; Four is to explore “commercial microfinance” new stage. With ourmicrofinance vigorous development, we have formed non-governmental organizations (NGOs)microfinance, agriculture bank(state-owned Banks) carrying out of poverty relief discountmicrofinance, rural credit cooperatives system microfinance, city commercial Banks and theguarantee company conducting microfinance projects, only borrowing not existing smallloans companies projiects, postal savings bank s projiects, small rural towns credit projects,rural financial institution of microfinance projects, joint stock commercial Banksmicrofinance projects,etc. Microfinance, in aid-the-poor work has made remarkableachievements and has been active fuction in solving farmers question of loans, supportting forrural economic development, promoting the increase in farmers' income.The majority offarmers generally welcome. However, at present our country rural microcredit business ofsustainable development is faced with many problems, some of the most prominent is thedifficulty of microfinance to all kinds of risk (such as credit risk, the interest rate risk, marketrisk, natural risk, operation risk, etc), led directly to the farmers small loans difficult andfarmers microfinance market is widespread low coverage, not to meet the needs of ruraleconomic development. Therefore, Our microfinance risk can be or not be effective and todissolve, is not only related to the survival and development of farmers' income and thesupport of the funding, and related to the rural credit market order and farmers microfinancethe sustainable development in the future, and ultimately affect China's construction ofsocialist new countryside construction.
     This article from the international and domestic microfinance development history,present situation, based on risk management theory, according to credit risk management,borrow before when risk management and credit risk management after logical sequence, withour rural financial system reform and microfinance development present situation, hascomprehensively study the credit risk appeared in the process of the development of our rural microcredit. The Paper includes the basic theory of microfinance risk, and includes thepractice exploration of microfinance risk manangement; includes the investigation of themicrofinance current situation and types, and the microfinance risk analysis of the cause andtakes countermeasures; not only introduces the microfinance risk quantitative theoreticalmodel, and empirically analysis the microfinance risk by establishing econometric model. Onthis basis,it set up a set of microfinance risk management system according with the actualsituation in our country,and further promotting our rural microcredit sustainable development.This article specifically arranges the content as follows:
     Chapter1: An introduction to the paper.It is a choosing background, research purposeand meaning, thoughts and methods of our rural microcredit risk management and thepossible innovation of the paper.
     Chapter2: The present situation of microfinance risk management at home and abroadand the theory reviewed. This chapter introduces the related theories of microfinance;introduces systemly the literature of domestic and foreign microfinance risk management, andcombins theory and practice of the international and domestic microfinance risk management,in order to existing introductory research of microfinance risk manangement based on presentresearch work.
     Chapter3: The Chinese rural microfinance risk situation, and the question of riskmanagement. This chapter presents the development of rural microcredit historical evolutionand development present situation. It empirically studies the NGOs institutions, rural creditcooperatives, villages Banks, and analyzes the microfinance institutions credit risk and thereason, then puts forward some countermeasures.
     Chapter4: Microfinance rates analysis and risk management. The interest rate is theimportant content of microfinance. This chapter discusses the microfinance rates mechanismand measuring methods, and discusses the theory model of peasant household microfinancerates; At the same time, analyzes the microcredit interest rate marketization and influencefactors.
     Chapter5:Microfinance institutions governance and risk management. This chapter frommicrofinance institutions of the governance structure, analyzes the problems to solve andgovernance framework; discusses the microfinance institutions internal control and theinternal audit, further works microfinance institutions risk management.
     Chapter6: Microfinance institutions evaluation and customer credit ratings management.Microfinance institutions evaluation and customer credit rating score are an importantpremise and foundation of microfinance institutions its own risk management and customercredit risk control. This chapter discusses the method of evaluating the microfinance institutions, analyzes the feasibility and necessity of microfinance customer credit rating score;and controls the microfinance credit risk by establishing credit score card model and theapplication, and by establishing rating policy and supervision in operation.
     Chapter7: The Chinese rural microfinance effective regulatory. This chapter presents theinternational microfinance institutions the principles of successful experience and supervision;analyzes the Chinese microfinance institutions effective regulatory framework and prudentsupervision standards, and the facing challenges of microfinance institutions supervision.
     Chapter8: The Chinese rural microfinance risk management strategy and policysuggestion. This chapter summarizes the types, characteristics and causes of microfinance risk;compares the controlling model of domestic and foreign microfinance risk; analysis thegeneral techniques and tools of microfinance risk control, puts forward to create the earlywarning system of microfinance risk control.
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