船舶配套产业共生系统稳定性研究
摘要
船舶工业是关系着国防安全及国民经济发展,并推动产业结构升级的战略性产业。虽然目前中国船舶制造能力全球排名第三,仅次于日本和韩国,但我国船舶配套产业发展相对滞后,致使我国造船业濒临陷入“船壳工业”的危险。我国国产船舶配套设备率平均仅为40%,大量设备依赖进口,严重制约了船舶工业的盈利能力和持续发展。
船舶配套产业的特征符合集聚式发展条件,且表现出典型的共生特征,即通过合作,共同提高企业经济效益和竞争力,同时实现对资源的节约和环境保护。但由于产业共生系统存在稳定性脆弱的缺陷,因此需科学地遵循客观经济规律,使共生系统长期维持稳定。本文对船舶配套产业共生稳定性展开系统研究,深入探究共生稳定条件与影响因素,力求为我国船舶配套企业合理选择共生模式提供理论指导,并为船舶配套产业园区的规划者和政策制定者提供有益参考。
本文以实地考察与专家访谈为经验基础,通过文献梳理汲取国内外产业共生研究的最新理论成果,综合运用生态学、经济学中的共生理论、Logistic增长模型、n人合作博弈Shapley值等分析方法,对船舶配套产业共生系统的稳定性进行静态与动态结合的全面阐释与论证,最后以大连船舶配套产业的发展实际,对本文所构建的理论模型做出检验与修正。得出主要结论为:船舶配套产业共生系统稳定性的实现,要求系统中同类企业与异类企业的数量保持在合理水平上;采取对各企业共生单元具有一致激励功能的对称性利益分配方式;开展多种经营,以扩大企业产品品种,按专业分工形成集中优势,提高企业生存能力,最终提升系统抵抗风险的能力;此外,政府支持、技术供给充足、关键种企业扶持等因素也对船舶配套产业共生稳定性实现发挥着重要作用。大连船舶配套产业发展对策包括建立公正、平等的共生机制,培育并引进关键船舶配套设备企业,建设产业共性技术创新基地,发挥行业协会的协调作用,建立完善的服务网络,鼓励企业经营产品多元化,加大政府支持力度,提升创新能力,培育关键种企业等。
Shipbuilding industry is one of the strategic industries, which affects national security and economic development, and also promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure. China's current shipbuilding capacity is the third among the world, only behind Japan and South Korea, however, the development of China's ship equipment manufacturing industry lags far behind that of shipbuilding industry, which leads the latter to the verge of a "hull industry". China's localization rate of shipping equipment is around 40%, which means a mass of equipment need to be imported, therefore, the profitability and continuous development are seriously hampered.
The character of marine equipment industry matches the condition of cluster-oriented development; meanwhile, the industry performs the typical characteristics of the symbiosis, namely, enterprises in marine equipment industry can improve their economic benefit and competitiveness through cooperation, and meanwhile realize resource conservation and environmental protection. However, it is necessary to scientifically follow the objective and economic laws due to the defects of fragile stability of industry symbiotic system, in order to maintain its long-term stability. The paper systematically researches the stability of symbiotic system of marine equipment industry, and thoroughly probe into the conditions and factors of stability, for the sake of providing theoretical guidance for enterprises to reasonably select symbiotic models, and also supplying planners and policy makers of marine equipment industrial park with useful reference.
The paper bases on the on-spot investigation and experts interviews, absorbs the latest theoretical results by documentary analysis, adopts the ecological and economic methods, such as symbiotic theory, Logistic growth model and Shapley value in n-person cooperative game to demonstrate the static and dynamic stability of symbiotic system of marine equipment industry, and finally tests the theory with reality of Dalian marine equipment industry as a case study. It can be led to the conclusion that the realization of stability requires the reasonable number of similar enterprises and heterogeneous enterprises, the symmetrical profit distribution mode with consistently incentive function, the diversified operations to expand product variety, enhance their viability, and ultimately enhance the ability to resist risks. In addition, the government supports, adequate supply of technology, cultivation of key enterprises play an important role in maintaining the stability. The strategy for Dalian's marine equipment industry development includes establishing the just and equal symbiotic mechanism, cultivating and introducing the key equipment companies, constructing the base for innovation of industrial common technology, exerting the coordination role of industrial association, establishing the complete network of services, encouraging the diversified business, enhancing the government supports, improving the innovation capacity, cultivating key enterprises and so on.
船舶配套产业的特征符合集聚式发展条件,且表现出典型的共生特征,即通过合作,共同提高企业经济效益和竞争力,同时实现对资源的节约和环境保护。但由于产业共生系统存在稳定性脆弱的缺陷,因此需科学地遵循客观经济规律,使共生系统长期维持稳定。本文对船舶配套产业共生稳定性展开系统研究,深入探究共生稳定条件与影响因素,力求为我国船舶配套企业合理选择共生模式提供理论指导,并为船舶配套产业园区的规划者和政策制定者提供有益参考。
本文以实地考察与专家访谈为经验基础,通过文献梳理汲取国内外产业共生研究的最新理论成果,综合运用生态学、经济学中的共生理论、Logistic增长模型、n人合作博弈Shapley值等分析方法,对船舶配套产业共生系统的稳定性进行静态与动态结合的全面阐释与论证,最后以大连船舶配套产业的发展实际,对本文所构建的理论模型做出检验与修正。得出主要结论为:船舶配套产业共生系统稳定性的实现,要求系统中同类企业与异类企业的数量保持在合理水平上;采取对各企业共生单元具有一致激励功能的对称性利益分配方式;开展多种经营,以扩大企业产品品种,按专业分工形成集中优势,提高企业生存能力,最终提升系统抵抗风险的能力;此外,政府支持、技术供给充足、关键种企业扶持等因素也对船舶配套产业共生稳定性实现发挥着重要作用。大连船舶配套产业发展对策包括建立公正、平等的共生机制,培育并引进关键船舶配套设备企业,建设产业共性技术创新基地,发挥行业协会的协调作用,建立完善的服务网络,鼓励企业经营产品多元化,加大政府支持力度,提升创新能力,培育关键种企业等。
Shipbuilding industry is one of the strategic industries, which affects national security and economic development, and also promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure. China's current shipbuilding capacity is the third among the world, only behind Japan and South Korea, however, the development of China's ship equipment manufacturing industry lags far behind that of shipbuilding industry, which leads the latter to the verge of a "hull industry". China's localization rate of shipping equipment is around 40%, which means a mass of equipment need to be imported, therefore, the profitability and continuous development are seriously hampered.
The character of marine equipment industry matches the condition of cluster-oriented development; meanwhile, the industry performs the typical characteristics of the symbiosis, namely, enterprises in marine equipment industry can improve their economic benefit and competitiveness through cooperation, and meanwhile realize resource conservation and environmental protection. However, it is necessary to scientifically follow the objective and economic laws due to the defects of fragile stability of industry symbiotic system, in order to maintain its long-term stability. The paper systematically researches the stability of symbiotic system of marine equipment industry, and thoroughly probe into the conditions and factors of stability, for the sake of providing theoretical guidance for enterprises to reasonably select symbiotic models, and also supplying planners and policy makers of marine equipment industrial park with useful reference.
The paper bases on the on-spot investigation and experts interviews, absorbs the latest theoretical results by documentary analysis, adopts the ecological and economic methods, such as symbiotic theory, Logistic growth model and Shapley value in n-person cooperative game to demonstrate the static and dynamic stability of symbiotic system of marine equipment industry, and finally tests the theory with reality of Dalian marine equipment industry as a case study. It can be led to the conclusion that the realization of stability requires the reasonable number of similar enterprises and heterogeneous enterprises, the symmetrical profit distribution mode with consistently incentive function, the diversified operations to expand product variety, enhance their viability, and ultimately enhance the ability to resist risks. In addition, the government supports, adequate supply of technology, cultivation of key enterprises play an important role in maintaining the stability. The strategy for Dalian's marine equipment industry development includes establishing the just and equal symbiotic mechanism, cultivating and introducing the key equipment companies, constructing the base for innovation of industrial common technology, exerting the coordination role of industrial association, establishing the complete network of services, encouraging the diversified business, enhancing the government supports, improving the innovation capacity, cultivating key enterprises and so on.
引文
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[4]张一青等.“十一五”浙江省船舶工业发展的思考.船舶工程,2006,6:71-74.
[5]张澄宇,赵大利.中国船舶配套业现状及其发展方向.船舶工程,2005,1:1-5.
[6]杨新昆.世界船舶配套业聚焦.中国船检,2004,5:8-11.
[7]曹惠芬.世界船舶配套工业与市场概述.船舶物资与市场,2003,3:3-7.
[8]Marian Chertow.Industrial symbiosis:literature and taxonomy.Annual Review of Energy and Environment,2000,25:313-337.
[9]Allenby B R.Industrial ecology:the material scientist in an environmentally constrained world.MRS(Materials Research Society),1992,17:6-51.
[10]Industrial Development Counci.1 Industrial symbiosis exchange of resources,Karlundborg.Accessed on March 7,2005.
[11]AyresR U.AyresL Industrial ecology-towards closing the materials cycle.Edward Elgar,Cheltenham,UK,1996.278-280.
[12]Frosch R,N Gallopoulos.Strategies formanufacturing.ScientificAmerican,1989,261(3):144-152.
[13]王寿兵,吴峰,刘晶如.产业生态学.北京:化学工业出版社,2006:26.
[14]Ehrenfeld J,Chertow M.Industrial Symbiosis:the Legacy of Kalundborg.A Handbook of Industrial Ecology,UK:Edward Elgar,2002:334-348.
[15]LAMBERTA,BOONS F.Eco-industrial Parks:Stimulating Sustainable Development in Mixed Industrial Parks.Technovation,2002,22:471-484.
[16]MIRATA M,EMTAIRAH T.Industrial Symbiosis Networks and the Contribution to Environmental Innovation:the Case of the Landskrona Industrial Symbiosis Programme.Journal of Cleaner Production,2005,13:993-1002.
[17]陈凤先,夏训峰.浅析产业共生.工业技术经济,2007,1.
[18]Marshall,A.1890.Principles of economics.London:Macmillan.
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[21]Duranton,G.and D.Puga.2003.Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies.National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 9931.
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