中国失踪货币和流动性过剩研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,伴随着经济的快速发展,中国的M2/GDP一直呈现上升趋势,远远超过世界其他国家。这一“超额”货币供应与低物价水平并存的现象,大量“失踪货币”的存在及其对传统货币数量论对货币、产出、物价三者之间关系表述的违背,被国际经济学界称之为“中国之谜”。很多经济学家一度对M2/GDP数值的变动持中性或肯定的态度。但进入21世纪以来,世界范围内各主要经济体宏观货币经济运行中出现了一个显著变化:流动性由2001年开始至2007年的明显过剩,到2007年底次贷危机爆发后,随着实体经济陷入衰退而急转直下,再发展到2008年底的流动性极度短缺,中外各国为刺激经济纷纷采取宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策,导致2009年上半年开始全球流动性从短缺再次转变为泛滥。大量“失踪货币”不断涌现,冲击价格指数(CPI)和资产价格,导致全球范围内的滞胀。
流动性过剩及其逆转被广泛地认为是导致各类商品和资产价格泡沫膨胀及破灭的主要因素。无论是世界经济还是中国经济,货币流动性变动已经成为影响经济运行的重要因素,它通过种种传导机制,影响实物商品和金融资产的定价机制,打破传统的实体经济和虚拟经济之间的均衡关系,这不仅使通货膨胀和资产价格的走势变得扑朔迷离,也使实体经济屈从于金融环境的波动。在当前国际经济金融形势错综复杂、几大实体经济由盛及衰又纷纷探底回升、再到二次衰退的国际大环境下,研究失踪货币和流动性过剩之间的关系,以及它们与实体经济和金融市场之间的关系,不仅是重要的理论问题,更是重要的现实问题,这也是目前我国宏观经济政策决策中亟待回答的问题。因此,本文主要开展金融深化和货币竞争环境下中国经济中失踪货币和流动性过剩并存现象的研究,笔者期望能围绕上述问题为相关政策提供科学的定性和定量分析依据。
首先,本文对与“失踪货币”和广义货币流动性的产出、货币、物价之间关系的货币理论进行了梳理,同时给出了笔者认为最为合适的研究中国货币问题的两个角度和分析框架——对内的金融深化和对外的货币竞争。前者是一个经济货币化和资产资本化的过程,由于快速发展的商品市场化和要素市场化过程,货币供应会显得不足进而形成长期存在的失踪货币;而后者在全球流动性泛滥的大环境下,资本泡沫化和泡沫全球化形成普遍的流动性过剩。在这一思路指导下,本文在“马歇尔K值”基础上对流动性、流动性过剩(短缺)进行界定和测度,并对全球范围内的M2/GDP的长期趋势进行描述和跨国比较。然后对货币流动性与实体经济、价格水平和金融资产之间的影响关系进行考察。
其次,本文针对中国近些年来流动性过剩和短缺并存的显著特征,对中国货币总供给和总需求两方面分别进行建模,将资产价格变动、通货膨胀包含在商品、货币和信贷市场均衡的联立模型中予以内生解释,从货币总量供求失衡的角度对中国出现流动性过剩及逆转的原因进行探讨,考察多种外生冲击影响、央行货币政策组合、商业银行行为选择在流动性状况变动中产生的影响及效果,以此来解释中国失踪货币和流动性过剩交织的奇异现象。在此基础上,我们再使用新一代“存量—流量一致分析方法”(SFCA),深入宏观经济分部门,将流动性状况变动与经济部门资产负债调整行为相结合进行考察,认为比宏观货币总量层面的流动性状况及变动更能反映真实货币资金供求关系的是微观经济部门内部的资产选择行为变动。使用中国分部门经济数据,经过参数校准后,构建了基于SFCA的宏观经济五部门模型,通过对SFCA模型系统进行动态模拟分析,探讨了货币政策工具等各种外生冲击变量对居民部门资产选择行为变动产生影响的解释程度。
最后,本文基于前述研究结论,提出了治理流动性过剩的货币政策建议和经济结构调整政策参考:一是在源头上,紧缩货币政策、控制货币发放。发展资本市场,增加长期资产供给。以多元投资应对流动性过剩风险,中国的最优选择应是继续投资,增加实物资产而不是金融资产。二是在政策上,加强工具组合调控流动性。中央银行可以采用市场化和非市场化的方式吸收流动性,必须以克服“外患”为先导,消除“内忧”为根本,依靠“开源”、“节流”和“吸纳”三类措施,选择社会保障、外汇使用和资本市场发展为主要突破口,积极稳妥推进。三是从制度上,调整经济结构失衡状况。对我国总储蓄过大和储蓄投资差额过大的状况,既要采取一般性的政策刺激居民消费,也要采取特殊的政策削减过大的企业储蓄和政府储蓄。四是从技术上,拓展流动性管理范围。应从银行体系的流动性控制转向全社会的流动性控制,建立流动性监测指标,进一步改革中国的汇率机制与外汇管理体制。
本文的创新之处:①本文总结提炼了三层次广义流动性监测指标体系,进一步扩充和明确了流动性的概念。②本文提出了金融深化和货币竞争两个关键环境下的中国货币经济运行的理论模型,在对中国宏观总量货币供给与需求函数的建模中,把中国经济中出现的失踪货币及流动性过剩等特征纳入模型框架之中。③本文在新一代“存量—流量一致分析”(SFCA)框架下,建立了中国宏观经济五部门一般均衡模型,在此基础上通过考察各个部门的资产负债表变化过程,寻找流动性过剩(短缺)形成的微观部门内生机制。
Since China embarked on the path of reform and opening-up, along with the rapid economic growth, the Chinese M2/GDP ratio has been rising continuously. The“excessive”money supply coexisted with lower price level, as well as the existence of large amount of“missing money”, which was compounded with the relationship among money, output and price in classic Quantity Theory of Money, were characterized by the economist as“Chinese Puzzle”. The economists mainly hold positive views toward the high value of M2/GDP ratio. Many economists have, for a time, kept a neutral or optimistic attitude to the variation of M2/GDP. However a remarkable change has taken place since entering the 21 century in the macro monetary economical operation of the major economies of the world. Macro liquidities were obvious excessive during 2001 to 2007, but this trend reversed sharply to extreme shortage of liquidity in 2008, because the real economy gradually stuck in the recession after the explosively outburst of sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in the second half year of 2007. Both China and foreign countries adopted eased monetary policy and active fiscal policies, which caused the sudden reversal from liquidity shortage to excessive liquidity in the first half year of 2009. Astronomical magnitude of missing money has emerged, which had ferocious impact on price indices and asset prices, then resulted in global stagflation
Excessive liquidity and its reversal were widely considered to be the main source which triggers boom and bust of various types of commodity and asset price. Whether in world economy or Chinese economy, changes in monetary liquidity have played a significant role in economy operation. Monetary liguidity changes have affected physical commodities and financial assets pricing mechanism through various transmission mechanisms, and broken the equilibrium between real and virtual economy, which will not only lead to a confusing and complicated trend of inflation and asset prices, but also make the real economy succumbed to the volatility of the financial environment. Currently, the international economical and financial situation is so complicated, in which the main economies picked up again from bottom in the previous time and now have been trapped in the second recession. Under this circumstance, researches on the relationship between the missing money and excess liquidity, and the relationship among them, real economy and financial markets, are not just the theoretical problems but also practical problems that need to be solved in China's current macroeconomic policy decisions. So this paper focuses on the research of financial deepening and the coexistence of“missing money”and“excessive”money supply in Chinese economy in the environment of monetary competition. The paper expects to raise quantitative analysis to provide scientific basis for these issues.
Firstly, this paper sorts out the theories of relationship among output, money and price in relation with the "missing money" and the broad money liquidity, and then gives the most appropriate analytical framework to study Chinese currency problems - internal financial deepening and external currency competition. The former is the process of economic monetization and asset capitalized. Due to the process of commodity and factor marketization, the shortage of money supply will lead to the long-term problem of missing money. The latter one, with global excessive liquidity, globalization of capital bubblization will result in general form of excess liquidity. In this line of analysis, based on the measure of“Marshall K”, this paper defines and measures the liquidity and the extent of excessive liquidity or liquidity shortage, then describes the worldwide long-term trend of M2/GDP and make cross-country comparisons. Further more, this paper analyses the impact of the relationship among the excessive liquidity, the real economy, price level and financial asset.
Next, with a sight on the coexistence of excess and shortage of liquidity in China recently, this paper models the monetary demand and supply functions separately, and includes the asset prices and inflation indigenously in a simultaneous equations framework with goods, money and credit markets involved. From the point of view that excess liquidity or liquidity shortage origins from the non-equilibrium of monetary demand and supply and within this analytical framework, we could analyze the effect on excess liquidity of various exogenous variables, such as external shock, policy basket adopted by monetary authorities and voluntary behaviour adopted by commercial banks. Further more, we use the Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis( SFCA) method to go into the deeper view of sectoral economy. We relate the change of monetary liquidity conditions with the sectors’assets/liabilities adjustment behaviour because we believe micro-foundation of sectoral change of asset allocation behaviour can more accurately reveal the real monetary conditions than the measures based on the macro monetary variables. After calibration parameters we use Chinese sectoral data to construct China’s SFCA model with five sectors, we analyse the effect and relative importance of various external shocks, such as policy instruments, toward households’assets allocation and adjustment behaviour. Finally, we provide some advices on monetary policy and the corresponding economic structural adjustment policies involving excess liquidity management for reference.
At last and based on the research result stated above, this paper gives policy advice on the management of excess liquidity and the readjustment of economic structure:I. Measures from the Original, i.e., to tighten monetary policy and control currency issuing. With the background of global excess liquidity, diversified investment should be made as risk response measure, macro policy should be focused on lowering time-spanning risks, continuous investment especially in real investment instead of financial capital should be the first and best choice for China.II. Measures of policies, i.e., to use the mixture of regulating instruments for the liquidity control. Central bank may deploy market or non-market measures to absorb liquidity, but first the risks from "outside"should be overcome and the risks from "inside" should be eliminated. Attention should be paid to opening up the source and regulating the flow of costs, and to the "absorbing measures". We should choose social security, foreign capital usage and capital market development as breakthrough to actively and steadily promote these policy measures.III. Measures of the system, i.e., to readjust the imbalanced economic structure. In response to the oversize total saving and saving and investment difference, we should adopt both general incentive for resident consumption stimulating, and special policies for enterprises and government saving reduction. IV. Measures of technology, i.e., to broaden the field of liquidity management. Controlling should not be restricted to the banking liquidity only but to the whole society. We need to set a liquidity monitoring index and to further reform China's foreign currency rate system and foreign currency management system.
The innovation part of this pater includes: I. The summing-up of monitoring index system of liquidity of general money on three levels, as well as the clarification and expansion of the liquidity concept. II. The theoretical modelling of China’s monetary economic operation under the circumstances of financial deepening and monetary competition. In the process of modelling China’s macro and general money supply and its demand function, this paper put China’s economic characteristics such as the missing money and the excess liquidity into the model scheme. III. The building of a generally balanced model of the 5 major Chinese Authorities in the framework of new-generation Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis(SFCA). By building this model this paper analyes the changes of the balance sheets of the Authorities and finds out the inside reasons of the liquidity access (shortage) in the micro mechanism.
流动性过剩及其逆转被广泛地认为是导致各类商品和资产价格泡沫膨胀及破灭的主要因素。无论是世界经济还是中国经济,货币流动性变动已经成为影响经济运行的重要因素,它通过种种传导机制,影响实物商品和金融资产的定价机制,打破传统的实体经济和虚拟经济之间的均衡关系,这不仅使通货膨胀和资产价格的走势变得扑朔迷离,也使实体经济屈从于金融环境的波动。在当前国际经济金融形势错综复杂、几大实体经济由盛及衰又纷纷探底回升、再到二次衰退的国际大环境下,研究失踪货币和流动性过剩之间的关系,以及它们与实体经济和金融市场之间的关系,不仅是重要的理论问题,更是重要的现实问题,这也是目前我国宏观经济政策决策中亟待回答的问题。因此,本文主要开展金融深化和货币竞争环境下中国经济中失踪货币和流动性过剩并存现象的研究,笔者期望能围绕上述问题为相关政策提供科学的定性和定量分析依据。
首先,本文对与“失踪货币”和广义货币流动性的产出、货币、物价之间关系的货币理论进行了梳理,同时给出了笔者认为最为合适的研究中国货币问题的两个角度和分析框架——对内的金融深化和对外的货币竞争。前者是一个经济货币化和资产资本化的过程,由于快速发展的商品市场化和要素市场化过程,货币供应会显得不足进而形成长期存在的失踪货币;而后者在全球流动性泛滥的大环境下,资本泡沫化和泡沫全球化形成普遍的流动性过剩。在这一思路指导下,本文在“马歇尔K值”基础上对流动性、流动性过剩(短缺)进行界定和测度,并对全球范围内的M2/GDP的长期趋势进行描述和跨国比较。然后对货币流动性与实体经济、价格水平和金融资产之间的影响关系进行考察。
其次,本文针对中国近些年来流动性过剩和短缺并存的显著特征,对中国货币总供给和总需求两方面分别进行建模,将资产价格变动、通货膨胀包含在商品、货币和信贷市场均衡的联立模型中予以内生解释,从货币总量供求失衡的角度对中国出现流动性过剩及逆转的原因进行探讨,考察多种外生冲击影响、央行货币政策组合、商业银行行为选择在流动性状况变动中产生的影响及效果,以此来解释中国失踪货币和流动性过剩交织的奇异现象。在此基础上,我们再使用新一代“存量—流量一致分析方法”(SFCA),深入宏观经济分部门,将流动性状况变动与经济部门资产负债调整行为相结合进行考察,认为比宏观货币总量层面的流动性状况及变动更能反映真实货币资金供求关系的是微观经济部门内部的资产选择行为变动。使用中国分部门经济数据,经过参数校准后,构建了基于SFCA的宏观经济五部门模型,通过对SFCA模型系统进行动态模拟分析,探讨了货币政策工具等各种外生冲击变量对居民部门资产选择行为变动产生影响的解释程度。
最后,本文基于前述研究结论,提出了治理流动性过剩的货币政策建议和经济结构调整政策参考:一是在源头上,紧缩货币政策、控制货币发放。发展资本市场,增加长期资产供给。以多元投资应对流动性过剩风险,中国的最优选择应是继续投资,增加实物资产而不是金融资产。二是在政策上,加强工具组合调控流动性。中央银行可以采用市场化和非市场化的方式吸收流动性,必须以克服“外患”为先导,消除“内忧”为根本,依靠“开源”、“节流”和“吸纳”三类措施,选择社会保障、外汇使用和资本市场发展为主要突破口,积极稳妥推进。三是从制度上,调整经济结构失衡状况。对我国总储蓄过大和储蓄投资差额过大的状况,既要采取一般性的政策刺激居民消费,也要采取特殊的政策削减过大的企业储蓄和政府储蓄。四是从技术上,拓展流动性管理范围。应从银行体系的流动性控制转向全社会的流动性控制,建立流动性监测指标,进一步改革中国的汇率机制与外汇管理体制。
本文的创新之处:①本文总结提炼了三层次广义流动性监测指标体系,进一步扩充和明确了流动性的概念。②本文提出了金融深化和货币竞争两个关键环境下的中国货币经济运行的理论模型,在对中国宏观总量货币供给与需求函数的建模中,把中国经济中出现的失踪货币及流动性过剩等特征纳入模型框架之中。③本文在新一代“存量—流量一致分析”(SFCA)框架下,建立了中国宏观经济五部门一般均衡模型,在此基础上通过考察各个部门的资产负债表变化过程,寻找流动性过剩(短缺)形成的微观部门内生机制。
Since China embarked on the path of reform and opening-up, along with the rapid economic growth, the Chinese M2/GDP ratio has been rising continuously. The“excessive”money supply coexisted with lower price level, as well as the existence of large amount of“missing money”, which was compounded with the relationship among money, output and price in classic Quantity Theory of Money, were characterized by the economist as“Chinese Puzzle”. The economists mainly hold positive views toward the high value of M2/GDP ratio. Many economists have, for a time, kept a neutral or optimistic attitude to the variation of M2/GDP. However a remarkable change has taken place since entering the 21 century in the macro monetary economical operation of the major economies of the world. Macro liquidities were obvious excessive during 2001 to 2007, but this trend reversed sharply to extreme shortage of liquidity in 2008, because the real economy gradually stuck in the recession after the explosively outburst of sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in the second half year of 2007. Both China and foreign countries adopted eased monetary policy and active fiscal policies, which caused the sudden reversal from liquidity shortage to excessive liquidity in the first half year of 2009. Astronomical magnitude of missing money has emerged, which had ferocious impact on price indices and asset prices, then resulted in global stagflation
Excessive liquidity and its reversal were widely considered to be the main source which triggers boom and bust of various types of commodity and asset price. Whether in world economy or Chinese economy, changes in monetary liquidity have played a significant role in economy operation. Monetary liguidity changes have affected physical commodities and financial assets pricing mechanism through various transmission mechanisms, and broken the equilibrium between real and virtual economy, which will not only lead to a confusing and complicated trend of inflation and asset prices, but also make the real economy succumbed to the volatility of the financial environment. Currently, the international economical and financial situation is so complicated, in which the main economies picked up again from bottom in the previous time and now have been trapped in the second recession. Under this circumstance, researches on the relationship between the missing money and excess liquidity, and the relationship among them, real economy and financial markets, are not just the theoretical problems but also practical problems that need to be solved in China's current macroeconomic policy decisions. So this paper focuses on the research of financial deepening and the coexistence of“missing money”and“excessive”money supply in Chinese economy in the environment of monetary competition. The paper expects to raise quantitative analysis to provide scientific basis for these issues.
Firstly, this paper sorts out the theories of relationship among output, money and price in relation with the "missing money" and the broad money liquidity, and then gives the most appropriate analytical framework to study Chinese currency problems - internal financial deepening and external currency competition. The former is the process of economic monetization and asset capitalized. Due to the process of commodity and factor marketization, the shortage of money supply will lead to the long-term problem of missing money. The latter one, with global excessive liquidity, globalization of capital bubblization will result in general form of excess liquidity. In this line of analysis, based on the measure of“Marshall K”, this paper defines and measures the liquidity and the extent of excessive liquidity or liquidity shortage, then describes the worldwide long-term trend of M2/GDP and make cross-country comparisons. Further more, this paper analyses the impact of the relationship among the excessive liquidity, the real economy, price level and financial asset.
Next, with a sight on the coexistence of excess and shortage of liquidity in China recently, this paper models the monetary demand and supply functions separately, and includes the asset prices and inflation indigenously in a simultaneous equations framework with goods, money and credit markets involved. From the point of view that excess liquidity or liquidity shortage origins from the non-equilibrium of monetary demand and supply and within this analytical framework, we could analyze the effect on excess liquidity of various exogenous variables, such as external shock, policy basket adopted by monetary authorities and voluntary behaviour adopted by commercial banks. Further more, we use the Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis( SFCA) method to go into the deeper view of sectoral economy. We relate the change of monetary liquidity conditions with the sectors’assets/liabilities adjustment behaviour because we believe micro-foundation of sectoral change of asset allocation behaviour can more accurately reveal the real monetary conditions than the measures based on the macro monetary variables. After calibration parameters we use Chinese sectoral data to construct China’s SFCA model with five sectors, we analyse the effect and relative importance of various external shocks, such as policy instruments, toward households’assets allocation and adjustment behaviour. Finally, we provide some advices on monetary policy and the corresponding economic structural adjustment policies involving excess liquidity management for reference.
At last and based on the research result stated above, this paper gives policy advice on the management of excess liquidity and the readjustment of economic structure:I. Measures from the Original, i.e., to tighten monetary policy and control currency issuing. With the background of global excess liquidity, diversified investment should be made as risk response measure, macro policy should be focused on lowering time-spanning risks, continuous investment especially in real investment instead of financial capital should be the first and best choice for China.II. Measures of policies, i.e., to use the mixture of regulating instruments for the liquidity control. Central bank may deploy market or non-market measures to absorb liquidity, but first the risks from "outside"should be overcome and the risks from "inside" should be eliminated. Attention should be paid to opening up the source and regulating the flow of costs, and to the "absorbing measures". We should choose social security, foreign capital usage and capital market development as breakthrough to actively and steadily promote these policy measures.III. Measures of the system, i.e., to readjust the imbalanced economic structure. In response to the oversize total saving and saving and investment difference, we should adopt both general incentive for resident consumption stimulating, and special policies for enterprises and government saving reduction. IV. Measures of technology, i.e., to broaden the field of liquidity management. Controlling should not be restricted to the banking liquidity only but to the whole society. We need to set a liquidity monitoring index and to further reform China's foreign currency rate system and foreign currency management system.
The innovation part of this pater includes: I. The summing-up of monitoring index system of liquidity of general money on three levels, as well as the clarification and expansion of the liquidity concept. II. The theoretical modelling of China’s monetary economic operation under the circumstances of financial deepening and monetary competition. In the process of modelling China’s macro and general money supply and its demand function, this paper put China’s economic characteristics such as the missing money and the excess liquidity into the model scheme. III. The building of a generally balanced model of the 5 major Chinese Authorities in the framework of new-generation Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis(SFCA). By building this model this paper analyes the changes of the balance sheets of the Authorities and finds out the inside reasons of the liquidity access (shortage) in the micro mechanism.
引文
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