我国潜在产出的估计与评价
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摘要
欧美经济危机之后，世界经济复苏进程缓慢，全球主要经济体失业率居高不下。现阶段我国同样面临经济下行压力，未来一段时间，我国经济能否保持过去30年的高速增长成为人们日益关心的话题。潜在产出的估计与分析对于一个国家制定中长期经济政策、抑制短期经济波动非常重要。因此，美国国会预算办公室(CBO)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、美联储(Fed)、世界银行等诸多机构均开展了有关潜在产出的研究工作，并作为自己政策制定的基础。
潜在产出和产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念，与政策制定者关心的经济增长、物价水平、失业率和短期经济波动等都密切相关，具有相当重要的理论和现实意义。潜在产出(Potential Output)的概念最早是由美国经济学家奥肯提出的，他依据自然失业率假设，首次提出了潜在产出的定义：“一个经济体在所有资源被充分利用时的最大可能产出。”并首次运用线性趋势方法对潜在产出和产出缺口进行估计。产出缺口是由潜在产出的概念引申而来，表示为潜在产出和实际产出的差额，也可以表示为这个差额占实际产出的比重，它反映了总需求与总供给之间的差异。
估计潜在产出可以对一个国家和地区长期经济增长的影响因素和发展趋势做出准确的分析和判断，可以使政策制定者明晰经济增长的最大潜能，从而为政府制定长期经济发展目标提供依据。产出缺口与短期经济波动密切相关，与通货膨胀和失业率紧密相连。若产出缺口为负，即实际产出低于潜在产出，实体经济运行在潜在水平之下。表明经济在发展过程中可能出现了运行效率低下或者要素闲置的情况。传导至劳动力市场就会出现非自愿失业，实际失业率高于自然失业率的现象，当失业率达到一定程度时就容易引发一系列的社会问题。过高的失业率是民众和政府不能容忍的情况。当产出缺口为正，即实际产出高于潜在产出，实体经济运行在潜在水平之上。表明经济在发展过程中可能出现了要素过度使用的状态，这会导致要素价格上涨并传导至其它产品，短期需求冲击并不会增加长期实际产出，最终只是带来通货膨胀等后果。因此，计算产出缺口可以使政策制定者知晓经济运行的合理水平，识别经济波动所处的冷暖状态，为政府短期的宏观经济调控提供依据。
为了避免严重的通货膨胀和过高的失业率，政府希望通过各种宏观调控政策使经济在潜在产出或略低于潜在产出附近平稳运行，因此潜在经济增长是判断一个经济体是否健康运行的重要参考指标。由于潜在产出和产出缺口是统计部门无法直接观测到，因此，这个反映了宏观经济调控方向和实际经济运行水平的潜在产出和产出缺口的定量估计便成为了众多学者和机构投入大量精力研究的一项重要课题。
本文主体部分共分五章，从分析梳理潜在产出概念入手，运用三种较为成熟的方法分别估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口，结合对通货膨胀解释能力和经济周期变动规律等建立潜在产出估计方法的评价体系，并给出相应的政策结论。
第一章为潜在产出的理论回顾，是本文研究的基础。在这一章中，我们对现有相关文献进行了分类与回顾，对潜在产出和产出缺口的相关研究成果和研究进展进行全面梳理和评述：包括对潜在产出和产出缺口基本内涵的界定；潜在产出估计方法的归类与优缺点分析；潜在产出国内外研究现状。明晰本文要从哪几个角度、运用哪几类方法来估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第二章基于总供给理论，运用不同的生产函数法对我国的潜在产出和产出缺口进行了估计。生产函数法已经被国外很多权威机构广泛使用，包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)、美联储(Fed)等。该方法建立在经济增长理论上，从供给角度出发，全面考虑了要素投入对经济增长的贡献度，具有明确的经济理论基础，能包含解释潜在经济增长的主要因素。本章对我国劳动力和资本存量分别进行了修正和再估计，对于资本存量中四个关键变量的选取，做了较为详细的研究和论述。其中，我国资本折旧率的取值争议一直较大，为了考察全面，本章选取了较为公认的6%和10.96%。通过计算发现，我国劳动对资本的替代弹性(1996-2011)可变，并且呈现出整体下降趋势。为了解决上述问题，本章选用超越生产函数对我国的潜在产出进行估计。最后的评价结果也验证了模型选择的正确性，利用超越生产函数形式计算得到的潜在产出结果在各个评价准则中的效果都是很好的。劳动对资本的替代弹性下降意味着在经济活动中，劳动这种生产要素变得越来越稀缺，相对地，另一种主要生产要素资本就变得相对充足。这个实证结果与我国劳动力成本不断上升的基本国情相符，意味着我国以后将越来越难再依靠原有的生产方式来实现经济的快速增长。最后，本章分别利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型和超越生产函数模型，在两组资本存量(不同折旧率)的情况下估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第三章基于总需求和总供给均衡理论，参考Blanchard和Quah(1989)中关于需求冲击对产出水平长期影响约束的设定方式。假设需求冲击只会引起短期的经济波动，长期对产出的趋势变动没有影响。经济的长期均衡趋势来源于永久冲击(供给冲击)。最后的实证结果也表明，需求冲击对于产出水平的影响确实只是暂时性的，而供给冲击对于产出水平的影响具有持续性。验证了SVAR模型关于供给冲击和需求冲击的假设是合理的。根据伯南克提出的金融加速器原理，金融系统在很大程度上加剧了经济的波动程度。为此，政策当局应该尽可能通过各种有效措施来保证产出波动最小，不应为了追求短期更快的经济增长而滥用一些需求管理工具。注重短期政策上的稳定性，否则就很可能会导致产出水平的巨大波动和宏观经济整体上出现“大起大落”的情况。相比产出的短期波动，政府更应该实施旨在提高产出供给方面的长期政策。这些长期政策短期可能不如需求管理政策工具见效快，但是对于经济长期产出水平的增长所起的作用是非常关键的。在上述长期约束条件假定下，本章根据菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律曲线反应的经济变量关系，同时考虑供给冲击和需求冲击的影响，利用结构向量自回归方法估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第四章考虑国际经济因素，尤其是产出波动的主要影响因素(内因和外因)，在开放经济条件下对我国的潜在产出和产出缺口进行估计。本章选用状态空间模型，利用卡尔曼滤波这个强有力的迭代算法进行估计。本章中估计潜在产出状态空间模型设定的基础主要包括附加预期的菲利普斯曲线反应的经济变量关系和开放经济条件下影响产出波动的主要因素。其中，产出缺口比例代表了经济周期的波动因素，这个波动主要是受到内部和外部冲击所导致的。内部冲击指的是利率缺口冲击，而外部冲击主要考虑的是净出口额和外国净投资额。同时，产出缺口比例也可能受到上一期值以及通货膨胀的影响。最后的实证结果证明了影响我国经济周期波动的内部冲击和外部冲击等都是显著存在的。这说明，造成我国经济出现波动的原因不仅仅包括通货膨胀、本国利率缺口等内部因素，还包括净出口额缺口和外国净投资额缺口等外部因素。
第五章利用四个评价准则对第二、三、四章的潜在产出估计方法进行全面的比较和评价。这四个评价准则包括：产出缺口比例是否能够解释通货膨胀率的变化；产出缺口比例是否能够刻画我国经济周期的变动规律；潜在产出增长率对实际产出增长率的短期预测能力；在不同样本区间下检验模型结果是否稳健。最终的评价结果显示：利用生产函数方法估计潜在产出的结果相对来说是最可信的。利用SVAR模型估计潜在产出的效果要优于状态空间模型。在生产函数方法中，柯布道格拉斯生产函数和超越生产函数形式的结果对于通货膨胀率的解释和模型结果稳健性检验差别并不明显。而在与基准经济周期转折点比较中，超越生产函数形式与基准经济周期谷值年份转折点的相同个数上比柯布道格拉斯生产函数多一个。相对而言，超越生产函数形式估计潜在产出要略优于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数形式。对于实际产出增长率的短期预测效果，超越生产函数在折旧率10.96%下得到的结果在两种检验模型中的结论并不一致，而在折旧率6%下估计得到的潜在产出增长率对于实际产出增长率的短期预测效果是显著的。综上所述，在所选取的历史样本区间下，利用超越生产函数法(资本折旧率取6%)估计我国的潜在产出要优于其他的方法。最后，针对这些实证结果给出相应的政策建议。
结论部分将对全文进行总结，并基于全篇提出政策建议。
After the economic crisis of Europe and the United States, the process of theworld economy recovery was slow, and the unemployment rate of major economies inEurope and America remained high. China at present is also facing the downwardpressure on economic. Thus, it has increasingly become the topic of public concernwhether China's economy can keep the high-speed growth as it has done in the past30years for some time to come. Estimates of potential output and analysis are veryimportant for a country to develop medium and long-term economic policy and tosuppress short-term economic fluctuations. Therefore, a number of institutions,including Congressional Budget Office, Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, international Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve System and World Bank,are carrying out research on potential output, and do their policy-making based on theresearch.
Potential output and output gap are important concepts in macroeconomics, whichare closely related to what policy makers concern: the economic growth, the price level,the unemployment rate and short-term fluctuations. Therefore they have importanttheoretical and practical significance. Potential output was first proposed by theAmerican economist Okun. Based on the natural rate hypothesis, he originated thedefinition of potential output:"the most likely output when an economy makes full useof all the resources." Also, it is the first time to use the linear trend for regression toestimate potential output and output gap. Output gap is extended from the concept ofpotential output, which is expressed as balance between potential output and the actualoutput and indicated as a proportion of the balance in the actual output. It reflects thedifference between the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply.?
Estimating potential output can accurately analyze and judge the influentialfactors and developing trends of the long-term economic growth of a country andregion, which can let the policy maker clearly know the maximum potential of theeconomic growth in order to provide the basis for government to formulate long-term economic development goals. The output gap is close relatived of the short-termeconomic fluctuations, and is closely relatived to inflation and unemployment rate. Ifthe output gap figure is negative, that is, actual output is below potential output and theentity economic operates below the potential level, it is evident that the economy haslow efficiency or elements are idle in the development process. When it’s transferred tothe labor market, involuntary unemployment shows up, namely the actualunemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment. To make mattersworse, the high unemployment rate can easily lead to a series of social problems,which is the most intolerable situation to the people and government; When the outputgap figure is positive, that is, the actual output is above potential output and the entityeconomic operates above the potential level, it means the factors have been overlyused in the development process, which will lead to prices rise of factors and otherproducts, but the short-term demand shocks will not increase the actual long-termoutput, just bring inflation consequences. Therefore, calculating the output gap canmake policy makers know the reasonable level to economic operation, and distinguishthe situation of economic fluctuations, providing the basis for the short-termmacroeconomic regulation and control of government.
To avoid severe inflation and high unemployment rate, the government hopes touse various macro-control policies to ensure that economy runs smoothly nearbypotential output or slightly below. Thus, potential economic growth is an importantparameter to judge if an economy runs healthily. However, potential output and outputgap cannot be observed directly by the statistical office. Hence, the quantitativeestimation of potential output and output gap, which reflects both the direction ofeconomic macro-control and real economic operation level, has become an importantissue that many scholars and institutions would take huge efforts to study.
The main part of the article can be divided into five chapters, starting with theconcept of potential output analysis, and using three kinds of mature method ofcalculation of potential output and the output gap. Then, combining the explanatorypower of inflation with the changes in the economic cycle, the article will establish thesystem of evaluation of the potential output to make appropriate policy conclusions.
Chapter one is theoretical review of potential output, which is the basis of thisstudy. In this chapter, we classify and review the existing literature to sort out theresearch results and research progress of the potential output, and conduct a comprehensive comments including the definition of the basic connotation of potentialoutput and the output gap, the classification of estimation methods for potential outputand analysis of their strengths and weaknesses, and potential output research status athome and abroad. It will be apparent that how this article estimates the potential outputand the output gap from which several perspectives and applying which severalmethods.
In chapter two, different production function methods are used to estimate thepotential output and the output gap based on the aggregate supply theory. Productionfunction method has been widely used by many foreign authorities including theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve (Fed). This method isestablished theoretically on economic growth. From the supply point of view, it hastaken full account of the contribution of factor inputs for economic growth and it alsohas a clear economic theoretical basis and contains main factors to explain thepotential economic growth. China's labor force and capital stock are modified andre-estimated. As to the selection of four key variables of the capital stock, detailedstudies and discusses have been done in this chapter. There exist different opinions onthe value of capital depreciation rate in China. In order to have a full study,6%and10.96%, which are more recognized, are selected as the final rate of depreciation. It isfound that working capital substitution elasticity of substitution (1996-2011) is variableand shows an overall downward trend. To solve the above problems, this chapterselects the transcendental production function to estimate China’s potential output forthe first time. The final evaluation results also verify the correctness of the modelselection, and the result of using the transcendental production function to calculatepotential output is the best among all the results in various evaluation criteria. Thedecline in the substitution elasticity of labor to capital means that the factor ofproduction of labor become increasingly scarce in economic activities, and anothermajor factor of production capital becomes relatively abundant. The result matches theempirical results and rising labor costs in China's basic national conditions, whichmeans that China will be no longer rely on the original production to achieve rapideconomic growth in future. The Cobb-Douglas production function and thetranscendental production function are used to estimate the potential output and theoutput gap respectively using two sets of capital stock (different rate).
Chapter three is based on the aggregate demand and aggregate supply equilibrium theory and is referred in the setting mode of long-term fluctuations of demanddisturbances to output level by Blanchard and Quah(1989). Assuming that if thedemand disturbances will only cause hort-term economic fluctuations do not causelong-term fluctuations to the trend of output. The trend of the economics’ long-termbalance comes from permanent disturbances(supply disturbances).The final empiricalresults show that demand disturbances on output level is really just temporary, whilethe impact of supply disturbances on output level is continued, which verify the SVARmodel assumptions about supply shocks and demand shocks is reasonable. Based onBernanke's financial accelerator principle, the financial system contributessignificantly to the volatility of the economy. For this reason, the policy authoritiesshould take various effective measures to ensure the minimum of output volatility asfar as possible, and should not abuse demand management tools in order to pursueshort-term faster economic growth. Focus on short-term policy stability, otherwise itmay cause huge fluctuations in the level of output and appear the "ups and downs" onthe overall macroeconomic. Compared to short-term fluctuations in output, thegovernment should implement a long-term policy aimed at improving the outputsupply. The impact of these long-standing policy may not be as quick as the short-termdemand management policy tools do, but it is very critical for the economic growth ofoutput level in the long-term. Based on the long-term assumption constraints, thischapter estimates China’s potential output and the output gap using structural vectorauto-regression method, in accordance with the relationship of economic variableswhich the Phillips curve and Okun's law curve response, taking the impact of supplydisturbances and demand disturbances into account at the same time.
The international economy factors are considered in chapter four, especially themajor factors which influence output fluctuations (including internal factor andexternal factor). Domestic potential output and output gap will be evaluated in an openeconomy condition. In this chapter, we adopt the State Space Model, and use apowerful iterative algorithm-Kalman filter–to do the estimation. The key is thesetting of both measurement equation and state equation, because different settings canbring different results to the estimation. The setting of the State Space Model forpotential output is based on Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curves and the mainfactors that influence the output fluctuation in an open economy condition, in whichthe proportion of output gap represents the fluctuation of economic cycle. This fluctuation is mainly caused by internal and external impact. The former impart refersto the impact of interest rate gap, while the latter focus on net exports and overseas netinvestment. At the same time, the proportion of output gap can be also influenced byinflation and the record of last term. The final empirical results prove that both internaland external impacts that influence domestic economic cycle do exist, which indicatesthat the reason why our economy experiences a period of fluctuation is not only thoseinternal factors including inflation, interest rate gap, but also external factors includingnet exports gap and overseas net investment. And these are doubtlessly of vitalimportance for policy authority.
Chapter five makes comprehensive comparison and evaluation on potential outputcalculation methods discussed in the second, third and fourth chapters. The fourevaluation criteria include: whether the proportion of the output gap is able to explainthe changes in the inflation rate; whether the proportion of the output gap is wellillustrated in the law of changes in China's economic cycle; soundness test modelresults in different sample intervals; the ability of potential output growth rate of actualproduction to forecast the rate of growth of short-term. The final results of theevaluation show that calculating potential output resulting in the framework of theproduction function is the most credible. Using the SVAR model to calculate thegrowth rate of potential output and the effects of potential output is superior to theresults of the state space model to calculate potential output. It is not obvious that thereare some differences in the explanation of the inflation and the robustness test ofmodel results between Cobb-Douglas production function and the transcendentalproduction function. While in comparison with Cobb-Douglas production function,trans-production function has one more turning points that equal the benchmark yearof economic cycle valley value. Relatively, trans-production function for calculatingpotential output is slightly better than Cobb-Douglas production function. As toshort-term forecasting effect on real output growth rate, trans-production function inthe depreciation rate of10.96%results two test conclusions which are inconsistentwith the two models, but it is significant that the forecast effect of potential outputgrowth rate to the short-term of real output growth rate is under the depreciation rate of6%To sum up, under the selection of the sample interval, using trans-productionfunction (in the capital depreciation rate of6%) to calculate the potential output issuperior to other methods. Finally, according to these empirical results, we give the corresponding policy recommendations.
The conclusion part is to summarize the full text and offer policy suggestions basedon the whole.
潜在产出和产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念，与政策制定者关心的经济增长、物价水平、失业率和短期经济波动等都密切相关，具有相当重要的理论和现实意义。潜在产出(Potential Output)的概念最早是由美国经济学家奥肯提出的，他依据自然失业率假设，首次提出了潜在产出的定义：“一个经济体在所有资源被充分利用时的最大可能产出。”并首次运用线性趋势方法对潜在产出和产出缺口进行估计。产出缺口是由潜在产出的概念引申而来，表示为潜在产出和实际产出的差额，也可以表示为这个差额占实际产出的比重，它反映了总需求与总供给之间的差异。
估计潜在产出可以对一个国家和地区长期经济增长的影响因素和发展趋势做出准确的分析和判断，可以使政策制定者明晰经济增长的最大潜能，从而为政府制定长期经济发展目标提供依据。产出缺口与短期经济波动密切相关，与通货膨胀和失业率紧密相连。若产出缺口为负，即实际产出低于潜在产出，实体经济运行在潜在水平之下。表明经济在发展过程中可能出现了运行效率低下或者要素闲置的情况。传导至劳动力市场就会出现非自愿失业，实际失业率高于自然失业率的现象，当失业率达到一定程度时就容易引发一系列的社会问题。过高的失业率是民众和政府不能容忍的情况。当产出缺口为正，即实际产出高于潜在产出，实体经济运行在潜在水平之上。表明经济在发展过程中可能出现了要素过度使用的状态，这会导致要素价格上涨并传导至其它产品，短期需求冲击并不会增加长期实际产出，最终只是带来通货膨胀等后果。因此，计算产出缺口可以使政策制定者知晓经济运行的合理水平，识别经济波动所处的冷暖状态，为政府短期的宏观经济调控提供依据。
为了避免严重的通货膨胀和过高的失业率，政府希望通过各种宏观调控政策使经济在潜在产出或略低于潜在产出附近平稳运行，因此潜在经济增长是判断一个经济体是否健康运行的重要参考指标。由于潜在产出和产出缺口是统计部门无法直接观测到，因此，这个反映了宏观经济调控方向和实际经济运行水平的潜在产出和产出缺口的定量估计便成为了众多学者和机构投入大量精力研究的一项重要课题。
本文主体部分共分五章，从分析梳理潜在产出概念入手，运用三种较为成熟的方法分别估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口，结合对通货膨胀解释能力和经济周期变动规律等建立潜在产出估计方法的评价体系，并给出相应的政策结论。
第一章为潜在产出的理论回顾，是本文研究的基础。在这一章中，我们对现有相关文献进行了分类与回顾，对潜在产出和产出缺口的相关研究成果和研究进展进行全面梳理和评述：包括对潜在产出和产出缺口基本内涵的界定；潜在产出估计方法的归类与优缺点分析；潜在产出国内外研究现状。明晰本文要从哪几个角度、运用哪几类方法来估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第二章基于总供给理论，运用不同的生产函数法对我国的潜在产出和产出缺口进行了估计。生产函数法已经被国外很多权威机构广泛使用，包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)、美联储(Fed)等。该方法建立在经济增长理论上，从供给角度出发，全面考虑了要素投入对经济增长的贡献度，具有明确的经济理论基础，能包含解释潜在经济增长的主要因素。本章对我国劳动力和资本存量分别进行了修正和再估计，对于资本存量中四个关键变量的选取，做了较为详细的研究和论述。其中，我国资本折旧率的取值争议一直较大，为了考察全面，本章选取了较为公认的6%和10.96%。通过计算发现，我国劳动对资本的替代弹性(1996-2011)可变，并且呈现出整体下降趋势。为了解决上述问题，本章选用超越生产函数对我国的潜在产出进行估计。最后的评价结果也验证了模型选择的正确性，利用超越生产函数形式计算得到的潜在产出结果在各个评价准则中的效果都是很好的。劳动对资本的替代弹性下降意味着在经济活动中，劳动这种生产要素变得越来越稀缺，相对地，另一种主要生产要素资本就变得相对充足。这个实证结果与我国劳动力成本不断上升的基本国情相符，意味着我国以后将越来越难再依靠原有的生产方式来实现经济的快速增长。最后，本章分别利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型和超越生产函数模型，在两组资本存量(不同折旧率)的情况下估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第三章基于总需求和总供给均衡理论，参考Blanchard和Quah(1989)中关于需求冲击对产出水平长期影响约束的设定方式。假设需求冲击只会引起短期的经济波动，长期对产出的趋势变动没有影响。经济的长期均衡趋势来源于永久冲击(供给冲击)。最后的实证结果也表明，需求冲击对于产出水平的影响确实只是暂时性的，而供给冲击对于产出水平的影响具有持续性。验证了SVAR模型关于供给冲击和需求冲击的假设是合理的。根据伯南克提出的金融加速器原理，金融系统在很大程度上加剧了经济的波动程度。为此，政策当局应该尽可能通过各种有效措施来保证产出波动最小，不应为了追求短期更快的经济增长而滥用一些需求管理工具。注重短期政策上的稳定性，否则就很可能会导致产出水平的巨大波动和宏观经济整体上出现“大起大落”的情况。相比产出的短期波动，政府更应该实施旨在提高产出供给方面的长期政策。这些长期政策短期可能不如需求管理政策工具见效快，但是对于经济长期产出水平的增长所起的作用是非常关键的。在上述长期约束条件假定下，本章根据菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律曲线反应的经济变量关系，同时考虑供给冲击和需求冲击的影响，利用结构向量自回归方法估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。
第四章考虑国际经济因素，尤其是产出波动的主要影响因素(内因和外因)，在开放经济条件下对我国的潜在产出和产出缺口进行估计。本章选用状态空间模型，利用卡尔曼滤波这个强有力的迭代算法进行估计。本章中估计潜在产出状态空间模型设定的基础主要包括附加预期的菲利普斯曲线反应的经济变量关系和开放经济条件下影响产出波动的主要因素。其中，产出缺口比例代表了经济周期的波动因素，这个波动主要是受到内部和外部冲击所导致的。内部冲击指的是利率缺口冲击，而外部冲击主要考虑的是净出口额和外国净投资额。同时，产出缺口比例也可能受到上一期值以及通货膨胀的影响。最后的实证结果证明了影响我国经济周期波动的内部冲击和外部冲击等都是显著存在的。这说明，造成我国经济出现波动的原因不仅仅包括通货膨胀、本国利率缺口等内部因素，还包括净出口额缺口和外国净投资额缺口等外部因素。
第五章利用四个评价准则对第二、三、四章的潜在产出估计方法进行全面的比较和评价。这四个评价准则包括：产出缺口比例是否能够解释通货膨胀率的变化；产出缺口比例是否能够刻画我国经济周期的变动规律；潜在产出增长率对实际产出增长率的短期预测能力；在不同样本区间下检验模型结果是否稳健。最终的评价结果显示：利用生产函数方法估计潜在产出的结果相对来说是最可信的。利用SVAR模型估计潜在产出的效果要优于状态空间模型。在生产函数方法中，柯布道格拉斯生产函数和超越生产函数形式的结果对于通货膨胀率的解释和模型结果稳健性检验差别并不明显。而在与基准经济周期转折点比较中，超越生产函数形式与基准经济周期谷值年份转折点的相同个数上比柯布道格拉斯生产函数多一个。相对而言，超越生产函数形式估计潜在产出要略优于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数形式。对于实际产出增长率的短期预测效果，超越生产函数在折旧率10.96%下得到的结果在两种检验模型中的结论并不一致，而在折旧率6%下估计得到的潜在产出增长率对于实际产出增长率的短期预测效果是显著的。综上所述，在所选取的历史样本区间下，利用超越生产函数法(资本折旧率取6%)估计我国的潜在产出要优于其他的方法。最后，针对这些实证结果给出相应的政策建议。
结论部分将对全文进行总结，并基于全篇提出政策建议。
After the economic crisis of Europe and the United States, the process of theworld economy recovery was slow, and the unemployment rate of major economies inEurope and America remained high. China at present is also facing the downwardpressure on economic. Thus, it has increasingly become the topic of public concernwhether China's economy can keep the high-speed growth as it has done in the past30years for some time to come. Estimates of potential output and analysis are veryimportant for a country to develop medium and long-term economic policy and tosuppress short-term economic fluctuations. Therefore, a number of institutions,including Congressional Budget Office, Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, international Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve System and World Bank,are carrying out research on potential output, and do their policy-making based on theresearch.
Potential output and output gap are important concepts in macroeconomics, whichare closely related to what policy makers concern: the economic growth, the price level,the unemployment rate and short-term fluctuations. Therefore they have importanttheoretical and practical significance. Potential output was first proposed by theAmerican economist Okun. Based on the natural rate hypothesis, he originated thedefinition of potential output:"the most likely output when an economy makes full useof all the resources." Also, it is the first time to use the linear trend for regression toestimate potential output and output gap. Output gap is extended from the concept ofpotential output, which is expressed as balance between potential output and the actualoutput and indicated as a proportion of the balance in the actual output. It reflects thedifference between the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply.?
Estimating potential output can accurately analyze and judge the influentialfactors and developing trends of the long-term economic growth of a country andregion, which can let the policy maker clearly know the maximum potential of theeconomic growth in order to provide the basis for government to formulate long-term economic development goals. The output gap is close relatived of the short-termeconomic fluctuations, and is closely relatived to inflation and unemployment rate. Ifthe output gap figure is negative, that is, actual output is below potential output and theentity economic operates below the potential level, it is evident that the economy haslow efficiency or elements are idle in the development process. When it’s transferred tothe labor market, involuntary unemployment shows up, namely the actualunemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment. To make mattersworse, the high unemployment rate can easily lead to a series of social problems,which is the most intolerable situation to the people and government; When the outputgap figure is positive, that is, the actual output is above potential output and the entityeconomic operates above the potential level, it means the factors have been overlyused in the development process, which will lead to prices rise of factors and otherproducts, but the short-term demand shocks will not increase the actual long-termoutput, just bring inflation consequences. Therefore, calculating the output gap canmake policy makers know the reasonable level to economic operation, and distinguishthe situation of economic fluctuations, providing the basis for the short-termmacroeconomic regulation and control of government.
To avoid severe inflation and high unemployment rate, the government hopes touse various macro-control policies to ensure that economy runs smoothly nearbypotential output or slightly below. Thus, potential economic growth is an importantparameter to judge if an economy runs healthily. However, potential output and outputgap cannot be observed directly by the statistical office. Hence, the quantitativeestimation of potential output and output gap, which reflects both the direction ofeconomic macro-control and real economic operation level, has become an importantissue that many scholars and institutions would take huge efforts to study.
The main part of the article can be divided into five chapters, starting with theconcept of potential output analysis, and using three kinds of mature method ofcalculation of potential output and the output gap. Then, combining the explanatorypower of inflation with the changes in the economic cycle, the article will establish thesystem of evaluation of the potential output to make appropriate policy conclusions.
Chapter one is theoretical review of potential output, which is the basis of thisstudy. In this chapter, we classify and review the existing literature to sort out theresearch results and research progress of the potential output, and conduct a comprehensive comments including the definition of the basic connotation of potentialoutput and the output gap, the classification of estimation methods for potential outputand analysis of their strengths and weaknesses, and potential output research status athome and abroad. It will be apparent that how this article estimates the potential outputand the output gap from which several perspectives and applying which severalmethods.
In chapter two, different production function methods are used to estimate thepotential output and the output gap based on the aggregate supply theory. Productionfunction method has been widely used by many foreign authorities including theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve (Fed). This method isestablished theoretically on economic growth. From the supply point of view, it hastaken full account of the contribution of factor inputs for economic growth and it alsohas a clear economic theoretical basis and contains main factors to explain thepotential economic growth. China's labor force and capital stock are modified andre-estimated. As to the selection of four key variables of the capital stock, detailedstudies and discusses have been done in this chapter. There exist different opinions onthe value of capital depreciation rate in China. In order to have a full study,6%and10.96%, which are more recognized, are selected as the final rate of depreciation. It isfound that working capital substitution elasticity of substitution (1996-2011) is variableand shows an overall downward trend. To solve the above problems, this chapterselects the transcendental production function to estimate China’s potential output forthe first time. The final evaluation results also verify the correctness of the modelselection, and the result of using the transcendental production function to calculatepotential output is the best among all the results in various evaluation criteria. Thedecline in the substitution elasticity of labor to capital means that the factor ofproduction of labor become increasingly scarce in economic activities, and anothermajor factor of production capital becomes relatively abundant. The result matches theempirical results and rising labor costs in China's basic national conditions, whichmeans that China will be no longer rely on the original production to achieve rapideconomic growth in future. The Cobb-Douglas production function and thetranscendental production function are used to estimate the potential output and theoutput gap respectively using two sets of capital stock (different rate).
Chapter three is based on the aggregate demand and aggregate supply equilibrium theory and is referred in the setting mode of long-term fluctuations of demanddisturbances to output level by Blanchard and Quah(1989). Assuming that if thedemand disturbances will only cause hort-term economic fluctuations do not causelong-term fluctuations to the trend of output. The trend of the economics’ long-termbalance comes from permanent disturbances(supply disturbances).The final empiricalresults show that demand disturbances on output level is really just temporary, whilethe impact of supply disturbances on output level is continued, which verify the SVARmodel assumptions about supply shocks and demand shocks is reasonable. Based onBernanke's financial accelerator principle, the financial system contributessignificantly to the volatility of the economy. For this reason, the policy authoritiesshould take various effective measures to ensure the minimum of output volatility asfar as possible, and should not abuse demand management tools in order to pursueshort-term faster economic growth. Focus on short-term policy stability, otherwise itmay cause huge fluctuations in the level of output and appear the "ups and downs" onthe overall macroeconomic. Compared to short-term fluctuations in output, thegovernment should implement a long-term policy aimed at improving the outputsupply. The impact of these long-standing policy may not be as quick as the short-termdemand management policy tools do, but it is very critical for the economic growth ofoutput level in the long-term. Based on the long-term assumption constraints, thischapter estimates China’s potential output and the output gap using structural vectorauto-regression method, in accordance with the relationship of economic variableswhich the Phillips curve and Okun's law curve response, taking the impact of supplydisturbances and demand disturbances into account at the same time.
The international economy factors are considered in chapter four, especially themajor factors which influence output fluctuations (including internal factor andexternal factor). Domestic potential output and output gap will be evaluated in an openeconomy condition. In this chapter, we adopt the State Space Model, and use apowerful iterative algorithm-Kalman filter–to do the estimation. The key is thesetting of both measurement equation and state equation, because different settings canbring different results to the estimation. The setting of the State Space Model forpotential output is based on Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curves and the mainfactors that influence the output fluctuation in an open economy condition, in whichthe proportion of output gap represents the fluctuation of economic cycle. This fluctuation is mainly caused by internal and external impact. The former impart refersto the impact of interest rate gap, while the latter focus on net exports and overseas netinvestment. At the same time, the proportion of output gap can be also influenced byinflation and the record of last term. The final empirical results prove that both internaland external impacts that influence domestic economic cycle do exist, which indicatesthat the reason why our economy experiences a period of fluctuation is not only thoseinternal factors including inflation, interest rate gap, but also external factors includingnet exports gap and overseas net investment. And these are doubtlessly of vitalimportance for policy authority.
Chapter five makes comprehensive comparison and evaluation on potential outputcalculation methods discussed in the second, third and fourth chapters. The fourevaluation criteria include: whether the proportion of the output gap is able to explainthe changes in the inflation rate; whether the proportion of the output gap is wellillustrated in the law of changes in China's economic cycle; soundness test modelresults in different sample intervals; the ability of potential output growth rate of actualproduction to forecast the rate of growth of short-term. The final results of theevaluation show that calculating potential output resulting in the framework of theproduction function is the most credible. Using the SVAR model to calculate thegrowth rate of potential output and the effects of potential output is superior to theresults of the state space model to calculate potential output. It is not obvious that thereare some differences in the explanation of the inflation and the robustness test ofmodel results between Cobb-Douglas production function and the transcendentalproduction function. While in comparison with Cobb-Douglas production function,trans-production function has one more turning points that equal the benchmark yearof economic cycle valley value. Relatively, trans-production function for calculatingpotential output is slightly better than Cobb-Douglas production function. As toshort-term forecasting effect on real output growth rate, trans-production function inthe depreciation rate of10.96%results two test conclusions which are inconsistentwith the two models, but it is significant that the forecast effect of potential outputgrowth rate to the short-term of real output growth rate is under the depreciation rate of6%To sum up, under the selection of the sample interval, using trans-productionfunction (in the capital depreciation rate of6%) to calculate the potential output issuperior to other methods. Finally, according to these empirical results, we give the corresponding policy recommendations.
The conclusion part is to summarize the full text and offer policy suggestions basedon the whole.
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