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中国乡镇企业增长与效率的实证研究
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摘要
改革开放30年来中国农村经济乃至整个国民经济的迅速增长,在很大程度上主要受益于具有中国特色的农村工业化进程,而在这一进程中扮演关键角色的就是乡镇企业的异军突起。得益于一系列特殊的宏观环境因素和自身的微观组织优势,乡镇企业从无到有迅猛发展,在增加农民收入、转移农业剩余劳动力、调整农村经济结构、扩大出口创汇和加快我国工业化与城镇化进程等方面做出了不可磨灭的贡献。然而,随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,整个社会经济发展朝着城乡协调、资源节约、环境友好和效益提高的内涵式方向转变。在面临着市场约束增强、资源短缺和竞争加剧的巨大压力下,“发端于农村,脱胎于农业”的乡镇企业在技术、结构和体制上的不适应性日渐显现,开始进入到一个要素重组、结构优化和改革攻坚的发展阶段。在新形势下,揭示我国乡镇企业发展中存在的问题,探究其增长的制约因素,寻找其效率增进的源泉,无疑具有重大的理论价值和现实意义。
     全要素生产率(TFP)反映了投入产出过程中生产单位将投入转变为产出的转化效率,它能够全面综合地反映传统生产要素投入之外的因素对于产出增长的贡献和作用,是集约型增长方式的集中体现,也是一个相当理想的理论分析框架。从增长源泉的角度来讲,乡镇企业增长是要素投入增长与全要素生产率提高共同作用的结果,而在生产前沿面方法的实证框架内,全要素生产率增长又可以进一步分解为技术效率增进和技术进步等内容,它们蕴含着不同的政策含义。本文正是基于上述实际需求,在全要素生产率理论与生产前沿面分析方法的框架内,采取规范分析与实证分析、宏观分析与微观分析相结合的方法,对乡镇企业的增长与效率问题进行全面系统的研究,具体包括乡镇企业的总量增长与源泉、地区差距与根源、生产率变迁与构成,及其宏观与微观影响因素等多方面内容。全文的研究内容和主要结论如下:
     (1)经济转型期乡镇企业增长的一般特点。论文第2、3和4章,首先在对我国乡镇企业的发展历程和历史贡献,以及相关经典经济增长理论进行总结的基础上,利用索洛增长核算框架,寻找乡镇企业产出增长的主要动力源泉,从而对整个经济转型期乡镇企业的增长类型做出一个基本判断;然后运用方差分解技术,考察要素投入与全要素生产率增长各自对省区间乡镇企业增长差异的贡献。研究表明:从各增长因素的贡献来看,全部要素投入对于乡镇企业增长的贡献将近70%,而全要素生产率增长的贡献作用相对较小,即乡镇企业产出增长动力主要来源于要素投入的增加,这说明了乡镇企业总体上呈现出一定的粗放经营特征。从方差分析结果来看,整个转型期乡镇企业增长呈现出明显的地区不平衡性,自20世纪80年代中期开始,东中西三大区域之间的差距,远远超过了区域内部各省区的差距,而各省区之间全要素生产率增长的差异则是造成乡镇企业增长地区差距的主要原因。
     (2)乡镇企业全要素生产率的增长与详尽分解。论文第5章,借助于考虑技术非效率项的非中性技术进步“随机前沿生产函数模型”,考察上世纪90年代以来我国省区乡镇企业的全要素生产率增长,将其分解为技术进步、技术效率增进、要素配置效率和规模效率变化四个部分,这是迄今为止对全要素生产率增长最为详尽的分解。主要得出结论如下:90年代初期,乡镇企业增长主要依靠于我国农村的劳动力比较优势,TFP保持了较高的增长势头;到本世纪初,资本要素的作用有不断接近甚至超过劳动力要素作用的趋势,在一定程度上出现了“资本挤出劳动”的现象,而TFP开始转为低速但平稳的增长。在TFP增长的四大贡献源泉中,因为技术进步、技术效率变化、要素配置效率改善和规模效率改进,分别使得乡镇企业全要素生产率平均每年上升3.68、1.95、1.14和1.62个百分点,其中技术进步是推动乡镇企业TFP增长的最主要推动力。
     (3)乡镇企业全要素生产率动态变化与源泉。论文第6章,利用基于数据包络分析的曼奎斯特生产率指数对我国省区乡镇企业的全要素生产率动态变化与源泉继续进行实证分析,并与随机前沿生产函数的实证进行相互验证。得出的结论主要有:从时间变动模式来看,考察期内乡镇企业的全要素生产率增长呈现出明显的阶段性特点,其中1990-1995年,年均增长率达10.71%,其主要动力来源于技术进步;1996-2001年,主要受技术进步下降的影响,TFP的年度间波动较大,增长势头有所回落;2002-2005年是乡镇企业全要素生产率的衰退期,主要体现为技术进步减缓与效率损失现象并存。从空间分布模式来看,乡镇企业TFP增长的省际差异明显,从高到低,依次是东部、西部和中部地区,而省区间生产率增长的贡献来源也并不相同:东部省份乡镇企业的TFP增长,主要来源于技术进步,技术效率处于恶化之中;中部和西部乡镇企业,在保持技术进步的同时,技术效率得到了有效提升,其中中部省份乡镇企业的TFP增长主要由技术进步贡献,而西部省份乡镇企业的TFP增长则主要来源于技术效率增进。
     (4)乡镇企业全要素生产率增长与技术效率增进的影响因素分析。论文第6、7章,首先在上述对乡镇企业TFP增长与构成进行系统测算的基础上,运用面板数据双向固定效应模型,进一步研究了农村人力资本、产权结构、FDI比重、贸易依存度、乡镇企业相对规模和农村城市化进程等变量,对整个乡镇企业TFP增长、技术进步和技术效率改进的影响方式和影响程度。然后,论文以湖北省2001-2005年乡镇企业数据为例,借用Battese & Coelli(1995)的B-C“一步法”估计模型,通过在技术非效率方程中引入企业性质、所处经济环境、交通情况以及企业开办年数等微观变量,估计出上述外生性因素对于技术效率的影响冲击,这相对于以往传统的两步法估计是一个重要的创新。整个影响因素分析结论基本符合于经济理论预期,这为寻找乡镇企业生产率增长与技术效率增进的源泉提供了有效政策工具。
     (5)乡镇企业可持续增长与效率提升的对策建议。论文第8章,针对上述研究结论,提出了若干对策建议:一是深化乡镇企业产权改革,完善公司治理结构;二是建立有效的技术创新机制,提高前沿技术进步水平;三是完善各种制度建设,消除各种非效率因素;四是合理确定乡镇企业规模,加快乡镇企业集聚发展;五是加大农村人力资本投入,提高乡镇企业劳动者素质。
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has gained a rapid growth in rural economy and even the whole national economy, the success of which achieved substantially benefited from the process of rural industrialization with Chinese characteristics, and the key role played in this process of rural industrialization is the rise and development of township-village enterprises (TVEs). Owing to a series of special macro-environmental factors and their own micro-organization advantages, the township-village enterprises have grown out of nothing and developed rapidly, and made an indelible contribution on increasing countrymen's incomes, transferring surplus labors, adjusting structure of rural economy and earning foreign exchange through export, and accelerating the process of industrialization and urbanization. However, with the establishment and perfection of China's socialism market economy system, the entire society economy development is transferring to the intension direction of urban-rural coordinated development, resource thrift, environment-friendly, and efficiency improvement. In the face of such tremendous pressures like the strengthen market restraint, shortage of resources and intensified competition, the township-village enterprises which "originated from rural areas and were born out of agriculture" are showing more and more inability to adapt to the technology, structure, and system as the day goes by and start to entering a developing stage of factor reorganization, structure optimization, and reformation assault. To explore the existing problems in the development of township-village enterprises in China, probe the constraints in their growth and to seek their source of efficiency enhancements under new situations are undoubtedly of great theoretical values and practical significances.
     Total Factor Productivity (TFP) reflects that production units transfer the input into convention efficiency of the output in the input-output process. It is the epitome of the intensive growth mode and a relatively ideal analytical framework that can reflect comprehensively the contributions of factors besides the traditional production factor input to the growth of output. From the perspective of the growth source, the output growth for the township-village enterprises is the combined effect made by the factor input growth and factor productivity improvement, and the total factor productivity improvement may also be attributed itself further to the improvement of the technical efficiency and technological progress etc. which contain different policy implications in the empirical framework of production frontier approach. Based on the practical demand, this dissertation, in the framework grounding on the total factor productivity and production frontier approach, combines the theory analysis with empirical analysis and the macro analysis with micro analysis, makes an all-around study of the growth and efficiency of China's township-village enterprises which include the gross growth and source, the regional disparity and root, changes and its components of productivity, and the macro and micro acting factors for TVEs etc. The contents and conclusions are as follows.
     (1) The common characteristics of growth of township-village enterprises in the transformation period. Firstly, on the base of summarizing the development course, the historical contribution as well as the related theory of economic growth, chapters 2, 3 and 4, seek out the sources of motive force for output growth in China's township-village enterprises, and then makes a basic judgment of the growth type of township-village enterprises using the framework of Solow's Growth Accounting. Secondly, this dissertation uses the variance decomposition method to assess the contribution of the factor input increase and the variation of the total factor productivity to the disparities of output across provincial township-village enterprises. The research shows that from the perspective of contribution of each growth factor, the contribution of total factor inputs to the growth of township-village enterprises reaches nearly 70%, while the contribution of the TFP growth is relatively small, therefore the driving force for the output growth of the township-village enterprises mainly rooted in the increase of factor input, from which we may conclude that the township-village enterprises show a degree of extensive operating characteristic as a whole. Viewed the result of variance analysis, the growth of township-village enterprises in the whole transition period has showed clear regional imbalance, and since the mid-1980s, the disparities between the three regions of east, middle, and west have surpass the intra-area disparities, meanwhile the provincial total factor productivity growth disparities are the most important factor that causes the regional disparities.
     (2) The total factor productivity growth and its elaborate decomposition in township-village enterprises. Drawing support from the non-neutral technological progress stochastic frontier production function model in the technology inefficiency, chapter 5 researches the vicissitudes of the TFP growth between 29 provincial township-village enterprises since the 1990s, and breaks into technological progress, technical efficiency change, allocative efficiency and scale efficiency which is the strictest decomposition so far. The conclusions achieved are as follows: In the early 1990s the rapid growth in TVEs' output depended on the comparative advantages of abundant labor forces in China's rural areas, and the total factor productivity maintained relatively speedy growth; in the early twentieth century, the capital output elasticity was more and more close to and even exceeded to the labor output elasticity, which led to the appearance of "capital crowds out labor", and the total factor productivity has transferred into slow-speed, steady growth. In the four main component factors, the township-village enterprises, because of technological progress, technical efficiency change, allocative efficiency and scale efficiency, enabled the total factor productivity to increase 3.68, 1.95, 1.14 and 1.62 percentage points per year with technological progress as TFP growth's principal driving force.
     (3) The dynamic changes and the source of the total factor productivity in township-village enterprises. Using Malmquist productivity index based on the DEA method, chapter 6 empirically analyzes the dynamic changes and source of the total factor productivity in China's 29 provincial township-village enterprises, and verifies with the empirical result of Stochastic Frontier production Function. The dissertation draws the following conclusions: From the time change pattern, the total factor productivity growth in our township-village enterprises showed a distinct stage characteristic, with 10.71% growth rate per year in the period of 1990-1995 and technological progress as the principal driving force; in the period of 1996-2001, under the influence of the technological progress index changes, the township-village enterprises' TFP growth dropped in momentum, and fluctuated repeatedly in each year; in the period of 2002-2005, the total factor productivity in township-village enterprises was declined, moreover, technological progress reduction coexisted with the technical efficiency loss. From the space change pattern, the provincial discrepancies in the township-village enterprises' TFP growth were obvious, and different TFP growths have taken place (in order, were east, west, and middle from high growth to low one), however the main reasons for the discrepancies were different. The technical efficiency index of township-village enterprises in eastern provinces were negative and the growth of TFP mainly relied on the technological progress; while the township-village enterprises in the middle and western provinces have been maintaining the technological progress, their technical efficiencies were improved effectively. The difference was that the TFP growths of township-village enterprises in the middle provinces were chiefly contributed by the technological progress while in the eastern provinces the technical efficiency improvement played the main role.
     (4) The influential factor analysis of township-village enterprises' TFP growth and technical efficiency improvement. Firstly, basing on the measurements and calculations of the township-village enterprises' TFP growth and its components, chapters 6 and 7 make a further research on the influences of factors such as the rural human capital, the structure of property rights, FDI proportion, dependent ratio of China's trade, relative scale of township-village enterprises and urbanization process on the township-village enterprises' TFP growth, technological progress and technical efficiency improvement. And then grounding on the micro township-village enterprises data from the year of 2001 to 2005 in Hubei province, this dissertation employs Battese & Coelli's (1995) B-C model and introduces the variables like legal status, economic environments, traffic situations and operating years in the technical non-efficiency equation so as to using one step evaluation method to discuss the influence of exogenous factors on the technical efficiency. The above named method is an important innovation to the former traditional two steps evaluation method. The whole conclusions of influence factors analysis are basically in line with the anticipations of economic theory, which provides an efficient policy tool for seeking after the sources of the township-village enterprises' productivity growth and technical efficiency enhancements.
     (5) Countermeasures and proposals of promoting efficiency and realizing the sustainable development of the township-village enterprises. Basing on the above research conclusions, the eighth chapter of this dissertation puts forwards several policy proposals for improving the total factor productivity of the township-village enterprises in China: the first one is to deepen the property right reform in the township-village enterprises and to perfect corporate governance structure; the second one is to establish effective technological innovation mechanism and to improve stochastic technological progress level; the third one is to perfect various kinds of institutional construction and to remove the inefficiency factors; the forth one is to rationally determine the scales of the township-village enterprises and to accelerate the overall development of the township-village enterprises; the fifth one is to enlarge the rural human capital input and to enhance the qualities of laborers in the township-village enterprises.
引文
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