基于东北亚石油合作的中国石油安全研究
|
摘要
石油被誉为“黑色的金子”、“工业的血液”、“现代经济的发动机”。石油作为一种重要的战略资源，对国民经济的发展起着重要的作用。石油安全问题已成为世界各国共同关注的重大课题。随着中国经济的又好又快发展，中国对石油的需求不断增加，石油生产量与消费量之间的缺口逐年拉大，石油供需矛盾日益突出，不得不通过增加进口来满足石油供求平衡问题，原油消费对外依存度呈逐年攀升趋势，并且原油进口大部分来自中东和非洲，进口来源地相对单一，运输通道又面临着“马六甲困局”等风险，中国石油安全形势极其严峻。东北亚区域是当今全球经济最具活力的区域之一，在世界政治、经济格局中占据重要地位。其石油资源较丰富，但分布非常不均。既有石油生产大国俄罗斯，又有石油匮乏但拥有技术和资金优势的日本和韩国，还有需求激增且有广阔市场的中国。目前，东北亚区域内国家在资源、技术、资金、劳动力等方面具有较强的互补性。东北亚多边石油合作既可以实现优势互补，降低石油开发风险，保障石油战略安全，又能加速区域一体化进程，获得良好的区域经济效应。东北亚区域石油合作虽然具有地缘优势和较强的互补性，但东北亚是大国利益交汇之地，热点问题多、隐患多，如朝核问题、台海问题、某些岛屿的主权归属问题、海域划界争端问题等，这些因素制约着东北亚石油合作的进程。东北亚区域至今尚未建立起全面的实质性的石油合作体系，主要是由于东北亚区域各国政治问题复杂，缺乏互信，经济发展水平存在巨大差异，石油需求国之间激烈竞争，地缘文化十分复杂等。另外，美国因素的介入为东北亚区域石油合作增加了变数。
鉴于中国石油安全形势极其严峻，如何发挥地缘优势，依托并推进东北亚国家石油合作，确保中国石油安全显得尤为重要。因此，选择将“基于东北亚石油合作的中国石油安全研究”作为研究课题，具有突出的现实意义和重要的学术价值。与以往文献不同的是，课题结合东北亚区域实际情况，分析了各国合作基础、中外石油合作现状及影响因素；运用多种方法综合评价了中国石油安全度；探讨了东北亚区域中外石油合作模式；并从多个角度提出了依托东北亚石油合作，确保中国石油安全的保障措施。这为促进东北亚区域中外石油合作，维护中国石油安全提供了理论指导。
全文共分七部分。第1章绪论，从石油在现代经济社会中的重要作用和中国石油安全形势出发，论述了课题研究背景和研究意义。然后分国内外两部分，从石油安全及评价、石油合作等方面进行了文献述评，接着阐述了研究内容与方法、思路与框架。
第2章阐述了相关理论基础。首先对石油安全的涵义、判别标准进行了探讨；然后阐述了地缘经济学理论、区域经济合作理论、国际石油合作模式理论、协议性国际分工理论、国家竞争优势理论等，为后文研究做了理论铺垫。
第3章比较分析了东北亚区域中外石油合作的基础。从石油资源禀赋、石油生产加工能力、石油消费需求水平及石油企业实力四个角度，分析了东北亚区域中俄日韩四国的合作基础。对于中国而言，如何加强与石油生产国俄罗斯的合作，以及正确处理与石油消费国日韩的合作关系，实现优势互补，显得尤为重要。
第4章分析了东北亚区域中外石油合作现状及影响因素。首先分析了东北亚区域的经济发展状况；然后介绍了东北亚区域石油合作的现状，分析了东北亚区域中俄、中日、中韩石油合作的影响因素。东北亚多边石油合作具有必要性和可行性，但东北亚区域复杂的政治、经济关系以及外在的一些影响因素严重阻碍了东北亚区域石油合作的步伐。
第5章基于东北亚石油合作综合评价了中国石油安全度。首先分析了影响石油安全的主要因素，然后筛选了中国石油安全度评价指标，接着运用主成分分析法计算了中国石油安全度各指标客观权重，运用模糊一致偏好关系计算了中国石油安全度各指标主观权重，并基于离差平方和的最优组合赋权方法计算了各指标综合权重。最后运用TOPSIS法计算了2001-2011年中国石油安全度评价值。从计算结果来看，中国石油安全度处于“弱安全”和“不安全”之间，应引起政府部门的高度关注。并指出加强东北亚区域中外石油合作，可以大大提高中国石油安全度。
第6章全面论述了东北亚区域中外石油合作的模式选择。首先分析了中国石油安全形势，论述了推进东北亚石油合作应遵循的原则；接着探讨了中俄石油合作模式，比如贷款换石油、合作开发等；最后研究了中日韩三个石油消费国之间的合作模式，在边界争议海域石油权益方面采取搁置争议、共同开发、产量分成模式应属上策。
第7章从东北亚石油合作视角提出了保障中国石油安全的措施。主要从促进中俄石油合作，提升中日韩石油合作水平，推动建立东北亚石油合作组织，完善石油期货市场，建立东北亚原油定价中心，健全石油战略储备体系，加强石油企业合作等角度提出了依托东北亚石油合作，确保中国石油安全的措施。
As an important strategic resource, oil is horned as the “black gold”, the “blood forindustry” and “engine of the modern economy”, having a main effect on the development ofnational economy. The oil security has become an attractive topic. The demand for oil isincreasing with sound and rapid growth of Chinese economy, and the gap between oilproduction and consumption would continue to widen with each passing year, so that thecontradiction between supply and demand of oil is becoming more and more serious. It has toincrease imports to meet the balance. It is the imports of oil going up faster that lead to anincreasing dependence on the world market. Most of the China's oil imports are from theMiddle East and Africa. The source of importation is relatively single. Most of shippers withoil nearly went through the Strait of Malacca which had a bigger risk called “Malaccadilemma”. In conclusion, the situation of China’s oil security is serious. As one of the mostdynamic economy areas of the world, Northeast Asia occupied an important place in globalpolitical and economic patterns. Though abundant in this region, oil resources are in unevendistribution. It not only has Russia, the big production of oil, but also has Japan and SouthKorea which are lack of oil and rich in techniques and financing funds. In addition, China hasbooming oil demand and board market. It is showed that the region has strongcomplementary in resource, technology, funding, labor etc. At present, there are strongernecessity and realistic possibilities in Northeast Asia multilateral cooperation, it can bothrealize complement with the advantages, reduce the risk of oil development, keep oil strategysafe, and accelerate process of regional integration, achieve good effect of regional economy.But Northeast Asia is a region where big powers have common interests, despite advantagesmentioned above. Many hidden troubles and hot issues have limitted the oil cooperation andlead to disputes in this region, such as the nuclear issue in Korea, the issue of the TaiwanStraits, some of the islands' sovereignty and maritime demarcations. Mainly because ofcomplicated politics, the lack of mutual trust, great gap in economic development, the fiercecompetition as well as different geocultures, Northeast Asia has not yet established a systemof substantially comprehensive oil security cooperation. In addition, America has involved inNortheast Asia cooperation which increases uncertainties.
It was important for us to give play to the geographical advantages and ensure the security of China’s oil based on cooperation with countries included in view of extremelyserious situation of oil security that China was facing. Therefore, the topic “Research on oilsecurity in china based on oil cooperation in Northeast Asia” had prominently practical andacademic significance. Different from previous literatures, combined with the actual situationin Northeast Asia, it analyzed the foundation of cooperation, recent situation of cooperationand factors of Chinese-foreign oil cooperation in Northeast Asia, and evaluatecomprehensively safe-degree of China's oil security by various measures, then explore themode of oil cooperation between China and foreign countries in Northeast Asia. In the end,security measures were suggested to ensure China's oil security from various angles relyingon Northeast Asia oil cooperation. It provided the theoretical basis to promote the oilcooperation between China and foreign countries in Northeast Asia and maintain Chinese oilsecurity.
The content of this thesis was divided into seven chapters. The first chapter was thepreface. The background and significance were illustrated considering the importance of oilin modern life and security situation of china’s oil. The literature review focused on thenational and international security and evaluation of oil, and the cooperation. Then itdescribed the content and methods, ideas and frameworks.
Relevant theories bases were discussed in the second chapter. First, it explored the origin,definition of the meaning and the judging standard of oil security. Then, it elaborated on thetheories of geopolitical economics, regionally economical cooperation, mode of internationaloil cooperation, international division in agreement, international competitive advantages etc.All of these theories paved the way for later research.
The contents of the third chapter analyzed the foundation of sino-foreign cooperation inNortheast Asia region. It analyzed comparative advantages from angles of natural endowmentof oil, oil production capacity, consumption levels and powers of enterprises in China, Russia,Japan and Korea. For China, it's obviously important to strengthen cooperation with Russia,appropriately handle relationship with Japan and Korea, and realize complement with theadvantages.
In chapter4, recent situation of cooperation and the influential factors in Northeast Asiawere analyzed. Firstly, it analyzed the economic development in Northeast Asia. Then itintroduced the current situation of the oil cooperation. The factors affecting oil cooperationwere analyzed between China and Russia, Japan, South Korea. Multilateral cooperation of oilhere has its necessity and feasibility. It was the complicated politics, economy and externalfactors that hindered the development of oil cooperation in Northeast Asia seriously.
In chapter5, comprehensive evaluation for China's oil security degree was made basedon oil cooperation in Northeast Asia region. The main factors that influenced oil security were analyzed, and evaluation index was screened. The objective weight of each index ofChina's oil security was calculated by principal components analysis, and subjective weightof each index was made by the method of consistent fuzzy preference relation. Then, thecomprehensive weight of each index was calculated according to the method of an optimalweights combination with sum of squares of deviation. Finally the calculation of the China'soil security degree was made from2001to2011by using the method of TOPSIS. It showedthat China's oil security degree was between "weak security" and "unsafe" which should beconcerned highly by government. It can be speculated that China's oil security degree wouldbe improved greatly in the way of strengthening the oil cooperation in Northeast Asia.
In chapter6, it detailedly discussed the mode selection of oil cooperation in NortheastAsia region. At first, the situation of China's oil security was analyzed. After that, principlesof promoting cooperation that should be followed were discussed. The next, cooperationmode between China and Russia also be discussed, for example, loans for oil, cooperativedevelopment etc. At last, it discussed the cooperation mode between China, Japan and SouthKorea, the three oil consumers. Shelving disputes, seeking common development, andproduction-sharing in the sea oil disputed interests would be the feasible modes.
In chapter7, some measures were put forward to ensure China's oil security from theaspects of oil cooperation in Northeast Asia, such as promoting the China-Russia oilcooperation, enhancing the level of oil cooperation between China, Japan and Korea,promoting the establishment of organization of Northeast Asia oil cooperation, improving thefutures market of oil, establishing the center for crude oil price, and improving the systems ofstrategic oil reserve, deepening cooperation of oil enterprises etc.
鉴于中国石油安全形势极其严峻，如何发挥地缘优势，依托并推进东北亚国家石油合作，确保中国石油安全显得尤为重要。因此，选择将“基于东北亚石油合作的中国石油安全研究”作为研究课题，具有突出的现实意义和重要的学术价值。与以往文献不同的是，课题结合东北亚区域实际情况，分析了各国合作基础、中外石油合作现状及影响因素；运用多种方法综合评价了中国石油安全度；探讨了东北亚区域中外石油合作模式；并从多个角度提出了依托东北亚石油合作，确保中国石油安全的保障措施。这为促进东北亚区域中外石油合作，维护中国石油安全提供了理论指导。
全文共分七部分。第1章绪论，从石油在现代经济社会中的重要作用和中国石油安全形势出发，论述了课题研究背景和研究意义。然后分国内外两部分，从石油安全及评价、石油合作等方面进行了文献述评，接着阐述了研究内容与方法、思路与框架。
第2章阐述了相关理论基础。首先对石油安全的涵义、判别标准进行了探讨；然后阐述了地缘经济学理论、区域经济合作理论、国际石油合作模式理论、协议性国际分工理论、国家竞争优势理论等，为后文研究做了理论铺垫。
第3章比较分析了东北亚区域中外石油合作的基础。从石油资源禀赋、石油生产加工能力、石油消费需求水平及石油企业实力四个角度，分析了东北亚区域中俄日韩四国的合作基础。对于中国而言，如何加强与石油生产国俄罗斯的合作，以及正确处理与石油消费国日韩的合作关系，实现优势互补，显得尤为重要。
第4章分析了东北亚区域中外石油合作现状及影响因素。首先分析了东北亚区域的经济发展状况；然后介绍了东北亚区域石油合作的现状，分析了东北亚区域中俄、中日、中韩石油合作的影响因素。东北亚多边石油合作具有必要性和可行性，但东北亚区域复杂的政治、经济关系以及外在的一些影响因素严重阻碍了东北亚区域石油合作的步伐。
第5章基于东北亚石油合作综合评价了中国石油安全度。首先分析了影响石油安全的主要因素，然后筛选了中国石油安全度评价指标，接着运用主成分分析法计算了中国石油安全度各指标客观权重，运用模糊一致偏好关系计算了中国石油安全度各指标主观权重，并基于离差平方和的最优组合赋权方法计算了各指标综合权重。最后运用TOPSIS法计算了2001-2011年中国石油安全度评价值。从计算结果来看，中国石油安全度处于“弱安全”和“不安全”之间，应引起政府部门的高度关注。并指出加强东北亚区域中外石油合作，可以大大提高中国石油安全度。
第6章全面论述了东北亚区域中外石油合作的模式选择。首先分析了中国石油安全形势，论述了推进东北亚石油合作应遵循的原则；接着探讨了中俄石油合作模式，比如贷款换石油、合作开发等；最后研究了中日韩三个石油消费国之间的合作模式，在边界争议海域石油权益方面采取搁置争议、共同开发、产量分成模式应属上策。
第7章从东北亚石油合作视角提出了保障中国石油安全的措施。主要从促进中俄石油合作，提升中日韩石油合作水平，推动建立东北亚石油合作组织，完善石油期货市场，建立东北亚原油定价中心，健全石油战略储备体系，加强石油企业合作等角度提出了依托东北亚石油合作，确保中国石油安全的措施。
As an important strategic resource, oil is horned as the “black gold”, the “blood forindustry” and “engine of the modern economy”, having a main effect on the development ofnational economy. The oil security has become an attractive topic. The demand for oil isincreasing with sound and rapid growth of Chinese economy, and the gap between oilproduction and consumption would continue to widen with each passing year, so that thecontradiction between supply and demand of oil is becoming more and more serious. It has toincrease imports to meet the balance. It is the imports of oil going up faster that lead to anincreasing dependence on the world market. Most of the China's oil imports are from theMiddle East and Africa. The source of importation is relatively single. Most of shippers withoil nearly went through the Strait of Malacca which had a bigger risk called “Malaccadilemma”. In conclusion, the situation of China’s oil security is serious. As one of the mostdynamic economy areas of the world, Northeast Asia occupied an important place in globalpolitical and economic patterns. Though abundant in this region, oil resources are in unevendistribution. It not only has Russia, the big production of oil, but also has Japan and SouthKorea which are lack of oil and rich in techniques and financing funds. In addition, China hasbooming oil demand and board market. It is showed that the region has strongcomplementary in resource, technology, funding, labor etc. At present, there are strongernecessity and realistic possibilities in Northeast Asia multilateral cooperation, it can bothrealize complement with the advantages, reduce the risk of oil development, keep oil strategysafe, and accelerate process of regional integration, achieve good effect of regional economy.But Northeast Asia is a region where big powers have common interests, despite advantagesmentioned above. Many hidden troubles and hot issues have limitted the oil cooperation andlead to disputes in this region, such as the nuclear issue in Korea, the issue of the TaiwanStraits, some of the islands' sovereignty and maritime demarcations. Mainly because ofcomplicated politics, the lack of mutual trust, great gap in economic development, the fiercecompetition as well as different geocultures, Northeast Asia has not yet established a systemof substantially comprehensive oil security cooperation. In addition, America has involved inNortheast Asia cooperation which increases uncertainties.
It was important for us to give play to the geographical advantages and ensure the security of China’s oil based on cooperation with countries included in view of extremelyserious situation of oil security that China was facing. Therefore, the topic “Research on oilsecurity in china based on oil cooperation in Northeast Asia” had prominently practical andacademic significance. Different from previous literatures, combined with the actual situationin Northeast Asia, it analyzed the foundation of cooperation, recent situation of cooperationand factors of Chinese-foreign oil cooperation in Northeast Asia, and evaluatecomprehensively safe-degree of China's oil security by various measures, then explore themode of oil cooperation between China and foreign countries in Northeast Asia. In the end,security measures were suggested to ensure China's oil security from various angles relyingon Northeast Asia oil cooperation. It provided the theoretical basis to promote the oilcooperation between China and foreign countries in Northeast Asia and maintain Chinese oilsecurity.
The content of this thesis was divided into seven chapters. The first chapter was thepreface. The background and significance were illustrated considering the importance of oilin modern life and security situation of china’s oil. The literature review focused on thenational and international security and evaluation of oil, and the cooperation. Then itdescribed the content and methods, ideas and frameworks.
Relevant theories bases were discussed in the second chapter. First, it explored the origin,definition of the meaning and the judging standard of oil security. Then, it elaborated on thetheories of geopolitical economics, regionally economical cooperation, mode of internationaloil cooperation, international division in agreement, international competitive advantages etc.All of these theories paved the way for later research.
The contents of the third chapter analyzed the foundation of sino-foreign cooperation inNortheast Asia region. It analyzed comparative advantages from angles of natural endowmentof oil, oil production capacity, consumption levels and powers of enterprises in China, Russia,Japan and Korea. For China, it's obviously important to strengthen cooperation with Russia,appropriately handle relationship with Japan and Korea, and realize complement with theadvantages.
In chapter4, recent situation of cooperation and the influential factors in Northeast Asiawere analyzed. Firstly, it analyzed the economic development in Northeast Asia. Then itintroduced the current situation of the oil cooperation. The factors affecting oil cooperationwere analyzed between China and Russia, Japan, South Korea. Multilateral cooperation of oilhere has its necessity and feasibility. It was the complicated politics, economy and externalfactors that hindered the development of oil cooperation in Northeast Asia seriously.
In chapter5, comprehensive evaluation for China's oil security degree was made basedon oil cooperation in Northeast Asia region. The main factors that influenced oil security were analyzed, and evaluation index was screened. The objective weight of each index ofChina's oil security was calculated by principal components analysis, and subjective weightof each index was made by the method of consistent fuzzy preference relation. Then, thecomprehensive weight of each index was calculated according to the method of an optimalweights combination with sum of squares of deviation. Finally the calculation of the China'soil security degree was made from2001to2011by using the method of TOPSIS. It showedthat China's oil security degree was between "weak security" and "unsafe" which should beconcerned highly by government. It can be speculated that China's oil security degree wouldbe improved greatly in the way of strengthening the oil cooperation in Northeast Asia.
In chapter6, it detailedly discussed the mode selection of oil cooperation in NortheastAsia region. At first, the situation of China's oil security was analyzed. After that, principlesof promoting cooperation that should be followed were discussed. The next, cooperationmode between China and Russia also be discussed, for example, loans for oil, cooperativedevelopment etc. At last, it discussed the cooperation mode between China, Japan and SouthKorea, the three oil consumers. Shelving disputes, seeking common development, andproduction-sharing in the sea oil disputed interests would be the feasible modes.
In chapter7, some measures were put forward to ensure China's oil security from theaspects of oil cooperation in Northeast Asia, such as promoting the China-Russia oilcooperation, enhancing the level of oil cooperation between China, Japan and Korea,promoting the establishment of organization of Northeast Asia oil cooperation, improving thefutures market of oil, establishing the center for crude oil price, and improving the systems ofstrategic oil reserve, deepening cooperation of oil enterprises etc.
引文
[1](美)弗兰克尔.石油安全:牵动一个国家的安全[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2011.
[2] Richard Eden. Energy economics: Growth, resources and policies[M]. Cambridgeuniversity press,1981.
[3](美)安德烈斯·卡拉,迈克尔·伊科诺米季斯著,李东超等译.美国的盲点:查韦斯、石油和美国安全[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2013.
[4](美)卢安武等著,李政,江宁译.石油博弈解困之道:通向利润、就业和国家安全[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[5] Danielsen. Futures volumes soars to record highs[J]. Futures industry magazine,1982,21(1):10-18.
[6] Arrow, Chang. Optimal pricing, use and exploration of uncertain natural resourcestocks[J]. Journal of environmental economics and management,1982,9(1):1-10.
[7] Paul Robert. The end of oil: on the edge of a perilous new world[M]. Oversea publishinghouse.2005,
[8](俄)С·日兹宁.全球能源安全与俄罗斯能源外交[J].俄罗斯学刊,2011,1(3):10-13.
[9](美)斯科特L·蒙哥马利.全球能源大趋势[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2012.
[10](俄)C·日兹宁.俄罗斯在东北亚地区的对外能源合作[J].俄罗斯研究,2010,(3):71-79.
[11]何沙,秦扬.国际政治经济与石油安全战略研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2011.
[12]何贤杰.石油安全评价指标体系初步研究[M].北京:地质出版社,2006.
[13]张茉楠.美国能源大棋局下的中国石油安全冲击[J].发展研究,2012,(12):9-11.
[14]管清友.石油的逻辑—国际油价波动机制与中国能源安全[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.
[15]常虹.经济全球化与中国的能源安全[J].生产力研究,2011,(12):16-17.
[16]何鸿,汤昌福.中国石油安全形势与对策[J].改革与战略,2012,28(2):47-50.
[17]王紫伟.中国石油安全的三个层次及政策侧重点分析[J].经济研究参考,2012,(7):50-61.
[18]何沙,吉安民,杨喆.基于我国石油对外依存度的石油安全策略研究[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(3):1-6.
[19]林建,王安建,于汶加等.石油期货市场机制及对中国石油安全的影响[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):693-698.
[20]陈惠芬,张斌.中国石油安全的影响因素及战略选择[J].理论月刊,2010,(3):75-77.
[21]王桂荣,刘甲.影响中国石油安全的因素分析及对策[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2009,25(2):5-9.
[22]孟刚,张意翔.影响石油安全的因素分析与对策探讨[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(4):42-45.
[23]庄韶辉.石油安全的经济学解释:基于供给中断和需求拉动模型[J].中国物价,2012,(11):61-63.
[24]何政泉,胡志荣.中国对外石油安全的战略思考[J].改革与战略,2012,(11):45-48.
[25]吴昊,李宁.中、日、韩能源安全关系:竞争敌手还是合作伙伴[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(5):119-124.
[26]殷冬青,吴秉辉.中东北非动荡与中国石油进口安全[J].国际石油经济,2012,(10):12-15.
[27]薄蓉,唐旭,冯连勇等.中国的石油安全令人堪忧[J].中国能源,2012,34(10):24-28.
[28]王礼茂,方叶兵.国家石油安全评估指标体系的构建[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):821-830.
[29]范秋芳.基于BP神经网络的中国石油安全预警研究[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(5):100-105.
[30]李小亮,陈彦玲,董正信.基于PSR框架的我国石油安全评价[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2008,16(1):62-66.
[31]李桂东,马广兴,何双.基于混沌理论的中国石油安全评价及预测[J].能源与节能,2011(11):11-14.
[32]陈军,成金华,吴巧生.中国石油安全战略评价:1990-2006[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(1):62-68.
[33]李铭,王高尚,于汶加等,中国石油资源安全评价[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):686-692.
[34]张传平,赵蕊蕊,闫雪平等.中国石油自给量分析与中国石油供给安全刍议[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2011,27(5):1-6.
[35]戴照明.我国石油安全战略研究[J].科学社会主义,2013,(1):40-44.
[36]郑明贵.中国石油资源经济安全评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2012,(6):7-9.
[37]王莉,李静.能源安全视角下中俄能源合作战略选择[J].资源开发与市场,2012,28(8):729-732.
[38]倪建平.俄罗斯能源战略与东北亚能源安全合作:地区公共产品的视角[J].黑龙江社会科学,2011,(1):29-33.
[39]邱询立.东北亚区域能源安全与合作[J].贵州财经学院学报,2009,(4):70-75.
[40]刁秀华.俄罗斯与东北亚地区经济合作的进展—以能源合作和中俄区域合作为视角的分析[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2011.
[41]伍福佐.亚洲能源消费国间的能源竞争与合作[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2010.
[42]孙霞.权力与规范:东北亚能源安全合作[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2010.
[43]赵振智,赵松.我国国际石油合作中的问题与对策[J].改革与战略,2009,25(9):33-35.
[44]耿晔强,马志敏.基于博弈视角下的中国与上海合作组织成员国能源合作分析[J].世界经济研究,2011,(1):82-86.
[45]王海燕.上海合作组织成员国能源合作:趋势与问题[J].俄罗斯研究,2010,(3):94-103.
[46]李恒仁,张继华,万毅.中俄石油合作新态势分析[J].边疆经济与文化,2012,(10):1-2.
[47]吴绩新.国际金融危机背景下的中俄石油合作[J].国际商务研究,2010,(3):51-58.
[48]孙博.新形势下中国参与东北亚石油合作的对策[J].经济纵横,2009,(1):80-82.
[49]张莹.国际能源新形势下的中俄能源合作问题分析[J].学术交流,2012,(11):129-132.
[50]谢文心.从贸易互补性看中俄能源合作发展[J].经济问题,2012,(1):43-45.
[51]杨文兰.中俄能源合作现状及发展问题研究[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2010,(4):42-47.
[52]陆南泉.中俄能源合作态势论析[J].黑龙江社会科学,2010,(1):16-22.
[53]衣保中,王浩.区域合作系统演化与东北亚能源合作[J].东北亚论坛,2009,18(6):51-55.
[54]郭锐,洪英莲.中俄能源合作的问题与对策[J].经济纵横,2009,(9):40-42.
[55] Darwin C. Hall, Oil and nationalal security[J]. Energy policy,1992,20(11):1089-1096.
[56] Douglas R. Bohi, Michael A. Toman. Energy security: externalities and policies[J].Energy policy,1993,21(11):1093-1109.
[57] Helcio Blum, Luiz F.L. Legey. The challenging economics of energy security: ensuringenergy benefits in support to sustainable development [J]. Energy economics,2012,34(6):1982-1989.
[58] Robert L, San Martin. Energy future from the Unitied States perspective[J]. Renewableenergy,1998,(15):8-9.
[59] Patrick Clawson. Energy and national security in the21St century[M]. Institute fornational strategic studies,1997.
[60](英)丹尼尔·耶金.全球能源安全[J].国际经济评论,2003,(3):45-49.
[61] Christian Winzer. Conceptualizing energy security[J]. Energy policy,2012,46:36-48.
[62] Chapman D, Khanna N. An economic analysis of aspects of petroleum and militarysecurity in the persian gulf [J]. Contemporary economic policy,2001,(4):25-28.
[63]崔新健.中国石油安全的战略抉择分析[J].财经研究,2003,(5):130-137.
[64]安丰全.我国的石油安全问题[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):9-13.
[65]张宇燕,管清友.世界能源格局与中国的能源安全[J].世界经济,2007,(9):17-30.
[66]单卫国.试论石油安全[J].国际石油经济,2003,(10):5-11.
[67] Andrews, C.J. Energy security as a rationale for governmental action[J]. Technology andsociety magazine,2005,24(2):16-25.
[68] Peter Toft, Arash Duero. Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oilsupplier reliability[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(10):6583-6594.
[69] Giacomo Luciani. Security of oil supplies: issues and remedies[M]. Claeys&casteelspublishing,2013.
[70] Salvatore Carollo. Understanding oil prices: a guide to what drives the price of oil intoday's markets [M]. Wiley;1edition,2011.
[71] Bruce A. Beaubouef. The strategic petroleum reserve: U.S. energy security and oilpolitics,1975-2005[M]. Texas A&M University Press,2007.
[72] TonyAkaki. The transportation of oil by sea [M]. Iuniverse, Inc.,2005.
[73] John V. Mitchell. A new political economy of oil[J]. The quarterly review of economicsand finance,2002,42(2):251-272.
[74] H. McKinley Conway. Geo-economics: the new science[M]. Conway data, Inc.,1994.
[75]李敦瑞.地缘经济学的理论流派与发展趋向[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2009,(1):26-29.
[76]卢光盛.国际关系理论中的地缘经济学[J].世界经济研究,2004,(3):11-16.
[77] Adam smith. An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations [M]. Oxford,at the Clarendon Press,1880.
[78] Ricardo, D. The principles of politieal economy and taxation[M]. Cambridge UniversityPress,1951.
[79] Heckscher, E. The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income[M]. EkonomiskTidskrift,1919.
[80] Bertil Gotthard Ohlin. Interregional and international trade[M]. Harvard University Press,1933.
[81] Paul Krugman. Strategic trade policy and the new international economics[M]. The MITPress,1986.
[82] Vessela Chakarova. Oil supply crises: cooperation and discord in the west[M]. LexingtonBooks,2012.
[83] Keun-Wook Paik. Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation: the reality and implications[M].Oxford University Press, USA,2012.
[84] Dag Harald Claes. The politics of oil-producer cooperation[M]. Westview Press,2001.
[85] Benjamin K. Sovacool. Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?[J]. Energypolicy,2007,35(11):5505-5514.
[86] Ystein Noreng. Oil politics in the1980: patterns of international cooperation[M].Mcgraw Hill,1978.
[87](日)小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987.
[88] Michael E. Porter. Competitive advantage of nations[M]. Free Press,1998.
[89] Robert Huggins, Hiro Izushi. Competition, competitive advantage, and clusters: theideas of michael porter [M]. USA: Oxford University Press,2012.
[90] Masanari Koike, Gento Mogi, Waleed H. Albedaiwi. Overseas oil-development policy ofresource-poor countries: A case study from Japan[J]. Energy policy,2008,36(5):1764-1775.
[91] Malavika Jain Bambawale, Benjamin K. Sovacool. China’s energy security: The perspec-tive of energy users [J]. Applied energy,2011,88(5):1949-1956.
[92]刘耀彬.中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(11):72-81.
[93]赵俊平,马小涛.我国石油供给与需求分析及其平衡策略[J].边疆经济与文化,2011,(2):1-4.
[94]马恒运,郭学先,唐华仓.中国的能源经济形势、机遇挑战和政策建议[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):257-260.
[95]朱富强.中国经济快速增长中的制度隐患—兼论中国经济增长方式面临的转变[J].社会科学研究,2011,(1):34-41.
[96]李永刚.“金砖五国”贸易竞争力的比较分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2013,(1):57-58.
[97]范拓源.资源禀赋视角下的中日国际技术转移研究[J].科技进步与对策,2009,26(10):12-17.
[98]江瑞平.当前日本经济回升的态势、动因、问题与前景[J].日本学刊,2010,(5):47-60.
[99]朴光星.“汉江奇迹”与韩国的企业家精神[J].当代韩国,2009,(4):52-59.
[100]顾晓安,李彬彬,顾宝炎.技术创新对经济发展的影响研究—来自韩国汽车产业的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2007,(12):56-63.
[101] Robert E. Ebel. The geopolitics of Russian energy: looking back, looking forward[M].Center for Strategic&International Studies,2009.
[102]袁新华,徐苑媛.中俄石油合作的历史与阶段研究[J].上海商学院学报,2010,11(2):46-52.
[103]凌胜利.地缘文明视角下的中俄关系[J].西伯利亚研究,2010,37(3):92-95.
[104]曾兴球.中俄油气合作现状和发展前景[J].国际石油经济,2010,(11):39-44.
[105]王海运.“能源超级大国”俄罗斯的能源外交[J].国际石油经济,2006,(10):8-16.
[106]徐德荣,王岩.论中俄石油合作的制约因素[J].西伯利亚研究,2009,36(6):17-21.
[107]刘江永.安倍再度执政后的中日关系展望[J].东北亚论坛,2013,(2):3-14.
[108]石源华,(韩)文恩熙.试论中韩战略合作伙伴关系中的美国因素[J].东北亚论坛,2012,(5):15-22.
[109] Boyan Kavalov, Hrvoje Petric, Evangelos Tzimas. Evolution of the indigenousEuropean oil and gas sources—Recent trends and issues for consideration[J]. Energypolicy,2011,39(1):487-492.
[110]于春苓.论俄罗斯的石油经济[J].世界历史,2011,(5):25-37.
[111] Bert Kruyt, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J.M. de Vries, H. Groenenberg. Indicators for energysecurity[J]. Energy policy,2009,37(6):2166-2181.
[112]王伯安,张德胜.中国石油经济安全评价指标体系设计[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(1):141-144.
[113]彭民,马海超,李义鹏.海外油气项目投融资环境评价指标及方法选择[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2012,28(2):1-2.
[114]方燕,李美.国际石油价格波动影响因素的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2012,(7):61-62.
[115]何贤杰，吴初国，刘增洁.石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J].自然资源学报，2006,21(2):245-251.
[116]孙鹏,雷涯邻.基于因子分析的国际石油合作潜力评价研究[J].经济研究导刊,2013,(3):197-201.
[117] Hotelling H. Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components[J].Journal of educational psychology,1933,24(6):417-441,498-520.
[118](美)Johnson,(美)Wichern著,陆璇译.实用多元统计分析(第四版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.
[119] Pierpaolo D'Urso, Paolo Giordani. A least squares approach to principal componentanalysis for interval valued data[J].Chemometrics and intelligent laboratory systems,2004,70(2):179-192.
[120]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例(第二版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012.
[121] Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F, Chiclana F. Some issues on consistency of fuzzypreference relations[J]. European journal of operational research,2004,154(1):98-109.
[122] Wang T, Chang T. Application of consistent fuzzy preference relations in predicting thesuccess of knowledge management implementation[J]. European journal of operationalresearch,2007,182(3):1313-1329.
[123] Chao R, Chen Y. Evaluation of the criteria and effectiveness of distance e-learning withconsistent fuzzy preference relations[J]. Expert systems with applications,2009,36(7):10657-10662.
[124] Wang T, Chen Y. Applying fuzzy linguistic preference relations to the improvement ofconsistency of fuzzy AHP[J]. Information sciences.2008,178(19):3755-3765.
[125] Wang T, Chen Y. Applying consistent fuzzy preference relations to partnershipselection[J]. Omega,2007,35(4):384-388.
[126]林向义.企业集成技术创新中的知识整合研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2010．
[127] Saeed Rouhani, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mostafa Jafari. Evaluation model of businessintelligence for enterprise systems using fuzzy TOPSIS[J]. Expert systems withapplications,2012,39:3764-3771.
[128]何贤杰,刘增洁,吴初国等.我国石油安全评价及建议[J].国土资源情报,2012,(10):2-7.
[129]陈伟,夏建华.综合主、客观权重信息的最优组合赋权方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(1):17-22.
[130]迟国泰,王钰娟,刘艳萍.基于三角模糊熵的经济评价模型及副省级城市的实证研究[J].运筹与管理,2010,19(5):112-113.
[131] C. L. Hwang, K. Yoon. Multiple attribute decision making: methods andapplications[M]. springer-verlag, berlin,1981.
[132] H.Deng, C.H.Yeh,R.J.Willis, Inter-company comparison using modified TOPSIS withobjective weights[J]. Computers&operations research,2000,27(4):963-973.
[133]宁方伟.基于信息熵与TOPSIS方法的高新技术企业创业孵化器选择模型[J].情报理论与实践,2013,36(1):115-118.
[134]邵强,张红源.基于模糊AHP/TOPSIS法的项目群构建评价研究[J].江西科学,2011,29(1):122-127.
[135] Renato A. Krohling, Vinicius C. Campanharo. Fuzzy TOPSIS for group decisionmaking: A case study for accidents with oil spill in the sea[J]. Expert systems withapplications,2011,38:4190-4197.
[136]何贤杰,刘增洁,吴初国.中国石油安全评价及建议[J].地质通报,2006,25(9):1108-1111.
[137]马凯.驳“中国能源威胁论”[J].价格理论与实践,2006,(11):4-6.
[138] Guy C.K. Leung. China's energy security: perception and reality[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(3):1330-1337.
[139]周晓波,吴家新,赵媛.中非石油合作的战略意义与重点区域选择[J].世界地理研究,2011,20(1):63-69.
[140] Peter Toft. Intrastate conflict in oil producing states: A threat to global oil supply?[J].Energy policy,2011,39(11):7265-7274.
[141]赵媛,嵇昊威.中非石油合作之石油运输通道研究[J].广东社会科学,2011,(2):25-30.
[142]邹立刚,叶鑫欣.南海资源共同开发的法律机制构建略论[J].河南省政法管理干部学院学报,2011,(1):59-63.
[143]胡德坤,杜婧文.二战后海洋油气资源勘探开发中的国际合作与争端研究[J].武汉大学学报(人文科学版),2011,64(5):98-103.
[144]孙彦彬,李凤升.加快建立东北亚多边石油合作机制[J].中国石油企业,2013,(1):38-39.
[145] Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Bundit Limmeechokchai. Energy security and co-benefits ofenergy efficiency improvement in three Asian countries[J]. Renewable and sustainableenergy reviews,2013,20:491-503.
[146]肖枫.美“重返亚洲”战略与中美关系走向[J].当代世界,2013,(1):30-31.
[147] Camyab, A., McConnach, J.S. A more perfect energy union[J]. Power and energymagazine,2006,4(4):47-56.
[148] Fredrik Hedenus, Christian Azar, Daniel J.A. Johansson. Energy security policies inEU-25—The expected cost of oil supply disruptions[J]. Energy policy,2010,38(3):1241-1250.
[149] Aad Correljé, Coby van der Linde. Energy supply security and geopolitics: AEuropeanperspective[J]. Energy policy,2006,34(5):532-543.
[150] Eui-soon Shin, Tim Savage. Joint stockpiling and emergency sharing of oil: Arrange-ments for regional cooperation in East Asia[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(5):2817-2823.
[151] Frederick H. Murphy, Michael A. Toman, Howard J. Weiss. International cooperation instockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions[J]. Journal of policymodeling,1985,7(4):649-672.
[152] Peter Zweifel, Susanne Bonomo. Energy security coping with multiple supply risks[J].Energy economics,1995,17(3):179-183.
[153]孙彦彬,李凤升.维护石油安全中国必备的战略思考[J].中国石油企业,2012,(3):32-33.
[2] Richard Eden. Energy economics: Growth, resources and policies[M]. Cambridgeuniversity press,1981.
[3](美)安德烈斯·卡拉,迈克尔·伊科诺米季斯著,李东超等译.美国的盲点:查韦斯、石油和美国安全[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2013.
[4](美)卢安武等著,李政,江宁译.石油博弈解困之道:通向利润、就业和国家安全[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[5] Danielsen. Futures volumes soars to record highs[J]. Futures industry magazine,1982,21(1):10-18.
[6] Arrow, Chang. Optimal pricing, use and exploration of uncertain natural resourcestocks[J]. Journal of environmental economics and management,1982,9(1):1-10.
[7] Paul Robert. The end of oil: on the edge of a perilous new world[M]. Oversea publishinghouse.2005,
[8](俄)С·日兹宁.全球能源安全与俄罗斯能源外交[J].俄罗斯学刊,2011,1(3):10-13.
[9](美)斯科特L·蒙哥马利.全球能源大趋势[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2012.
[10](俄)C·日兹宁.俄罗斯在东北亚地区的对外能源合作[J].俄罗斯研究,2010,(3):71-79.
[11]何沙,秦扬.国际政治经济与石油安全战略研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2011.
[12]何贤杰.石油安全评价指标体系初步研究[M].北京:地质出版社,2006.
[13]张茉楠.美国能源大棋局下的中国石油安全冲击[J].发展研究,2012,(12):9-11.
[14]管清友.石油的逻辑—国际油价波动机制与中国能源安全[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.
[15]常虹.经济全球化与中国的能源安全[J].生产力研究,2011,(12):16-17.
[16]何鸿,汤昌福.中国石油安全形势与对策[J].改革与战略,2012,28(2):47-50.
[17]王紫伟.中国石油安全的三个层次及政策侧重点分析[J].经济研究参考,2012,(7):50-61.
[18]何沙,吉安民,杨喆.基于我国石油对外依存度的石油安全策略研究[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(3):1-6.
[19]林建,王安建,于汶加等.石油期货市场机制及对中国石油安全的影响[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):693-698.
[20]陈惠芬,张斌.中国石油安全的影响因素及战略选择[J].理论月刊,2010,(3):75-77.
[21]王桂荣,刘甲.影响中国石油安全的因素分析及对策[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2009,25(2):5-9.
[22]孟刚,张意翔.影响石油安全的因素分析与对策探讨[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(4):42-45.
[23]庄韶辉.石油安全的经济学解释:基于供给中断和需求拉动模型[J].中国物价,2012,(11):61-63.
[24]何政泉,胡志荣.中国对外石油安全的战略思考[J].改革与战略,2012,(11):45-48.
[25]吴昊,李宁.中、日、韩能源安全关系:竞争敌手还是合作伙伴[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(5):119-124.
[26]殷冬青,吴秉辉.中东北非动荡与中国石油进口安全[J].国际石油经济,2012,(10):12-15.
[27]薄蓉,唐旭,冯连勇等.中国的石油安全令人堪忧[J].中国能源,2012,34(10):24-28.
[28]王礼茂,方叶兵.国家石油安全评估指标体系的构建[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):821-830.
[29]范秋芳.基于BP神经网络的中国石油安全预警研究[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(5):100-105.
[30]李小亮,陈彦玲,董正信.基于PSR框架的我国石油安全评价[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2008,16(1):62-66.
[31]李桂东,马广兴,何双.基于混沌理论的中国石油安全评价及预测[J].能源与节能,2011(11):11-14.
[32]陈军,成金华,吴巧生.中国石油安全战略评价:1990-2006[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(1):62-68.
[33]李铭,王高尚,于汶加等,中国石油资源安全评价[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):686-692.
[34]张传平,赵蕊蕊,闫雪平等.中国石油自给量分析与中国石油供给安全刍议[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2011,27(5):1-6.
[35]戴照明.我国石油安全战略研究[J].科学社会主义,2013,(1):40-44.
[36]郑明贵.中国石油资源经济安全评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2012,(6):7-9.
[37]王莉,李静.能源安全视角下中俄能源合作战略选择[J].资源开发与市场,2012,28(8):729-732.
[38]倪建平.俄罗斯能源战略与东北亚能源安全合作:地区公共产品的视角[J].黑龙江社会科学,2011,(1):29-33.
[39]邱询立.东北亚区域能源安全与合作[J].贵州财经学院学报,2009,(4):70-75.
[40]刁秀华.俄罗斯与东北亚地区经济合作的进展—以能源合作和中俄区域合作为视角的分析[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2011.
[41]伍福佐.亚洲能源消费国间的能源竞争与合作[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2010.
[42]孙霞.权力与规范:东北亚能源安全合作[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2010.
[43]赵振智,赵松.我国国际石油合作中的问题与对策[J].改革与战略,2009,25(9):33-35.
[44]耿晔强,马志敏.基于博弈视角下的中国与上海合作组织成员国能源合作分析[J].世界经济研究,2011,(1):82-86.
[45]王海燕.上海合作组织成员国能源合作:趋势与问题[J].俄罗斯研究,2010,(3):94-103.
[46]李恒仁,张继华,万毅.中俄石油合作新态势分析[J].边疆经济与文化,2012,(10):1-2.
[47]吴绩新.国际金融危机背景下的中俄石油合作[J].国际商务研究,2010,(3):51-58.
[48]孙博.新形势下中国参与东北亚石油合作的对策[J].经济纵横,2009,(1):80-82.
[49]张莹.国际能源新形势下的中俄能源合作问题分析[J].学术交流,2012,(11):129-132.
[50]谢文心.从贸易互补性看中俄能源合作发展[J].经济问题,2012,(1):43-45.
[51]杨文兰.中俄能源合作现状及发展问题研究[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2010,(4):42-47.
[52]陆南泉.中俄能源合作态势论析[J].黑龙江社会科学,2010,(1):16-22.
[53]衣保中,王浩.区域合作系统演化与东北亚能源合作[J].东北亚论坛,2009,18(6):51-55.
[54]郭锐,洪英莲.中俄能源合作的问题与对策[J].经济纵横,2009,(9):40-42.
[55] Darwin C. Hall, Oil and nationalal security[J]. Energy policy,1992,20(11):1089-1096.
[56] Douglas R. Bohi, Michael A. Toman. Energy security: externalities and policies[J].Energy policy,1993,21(11):1093-1109.
[57] Helcio Blum, Luiz F.L. Legey. The challenging economics of energy security: ensuringenergy benefits in support to sustainable development [J]. Energy economics,2012,34(6):1982-1989.
[58] Robert L, San Martin. Energy future from the Unitied States perspective[J]. Renewableenergy,1998,(15):8-9.
[59] Patrick Clawson. Energy and national security in the21St century[M]. Institute fornational strategic studies,1997.
[60](英)丹尼尔·耶金.全球能源安全[J].国际经济评论,2003,(3):45-49.
[61] Christian Winzer. Conceptualizing energy security[J]. Energy policy,2012,46:36-48.
[62] Chapman D, Khanna N. An economic analysis of aspects of petroleum and militarysecurity in the persian gulf [J]. Contemporary economic policy,2001,(4):25-28.
[63]崔新健.中国石油安全的战略抉择分析[J].财经研究,2003,(5):130-137.
[64]安丰全.我国的石油安全问题[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):9-13.
[65]张宇燕,管清友.世界能源格局与中国的能源安全[J].世界经济,2007,(9):17-30.
[66]单卫国.试论石油安全[J].国际石油经济,2003,(10):5-11.
[67] Andrews, C.J. Energy security as a rationale for governmental action[J]. Technology andsociety magazine,2005,24(2):16-25.
[68] Peter Toft, Arash Duero. Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oilsupplier reliability[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(10):6583-6594.
[69] Giacomo Luciani. Security of oil supplies: issues and remedies[M]. Claeys&casteelspublishing,2013.
[70] Salvatore Carollo. Understanding oil prices: a guide to what drives the price of oil intoday's markets [M]. Wiley;1edition,2011.
[71] Bruce A. Beaubouef. The strategic petroleum reserve: U.S. energy security and oilpolitics,1975-2005[M]. Texas A&M University Press,2007.
[72] TonyAkaki. The transportation of oil by sea [M]. Iuniverse, Inc.,2005.
[73] John V. Mitchell. A new political economy of oil[J]. The quarterly review of economicsand finance,2002,42(2):251-272.
[74] H. McKinley Conway. Geo-economics: the new science[M]. Conway data, Inc.,1994.
[75]李敦瑞.地缘经济学的理论流派与发展趋向[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2009,(1):26-29.
[76]卢光盛.国际关系理论中的地缘经济学[J].世界经济研究,2004,(3):11-16.
[77] Adam smith. An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations [M]. Oxford,at the Clarendon Press,1880.
[78] Ricardo, D. The principles of politieal economy and taxation[M]. Cambridge UniversityPress,1951.
[79] Heckscher, E. The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income[M]. EkonomiskTidskrift,1919.
[80] Bertil Gotthard Ohlin. Interregional and international trade[M]. Harvard University Press,1933.
[81] Paul Krugman. Strategic trade policy and the new international economics[M]. The MITPress,1986.
[82] Vessela Chakarova. Oil supply crises: cooperation and discord in the west[M]. LexingtonBooks,2012.
[83] Keun-Wook Paik. Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation: the reality and implications[M].Oxford University Press, USA,2012.
[84] Dag Harald Claes. The politics of oil-producer cooperation[M]. Westview Press,2001.
[85] Benjamin K. Sovacool. Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?[J]. Energypolicy,2007,35(11):5505-5514.
[86] Ystein Noreng. Oil politics in the1980: patterns of international cooperation[M].Mcgraw Hill,1978.
[87](日)小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987.
[88] Michael E. Porter. Competitive advantage of nations[M]. Free Press,1998.
[89] Robert Huggins, Hiro Izushi. Competition, competitive advantage, and clusters: theideas of michael porter [M]. USA: Oxford University Press,2012.
[90] Masanari Koike, Gento Mogi, Waleed H. Albedaiwi. Overseas oil-development policy ofresource-poor countries: A case study from Japan[J]. Energy policy,2008,36(5):1764-1775.
[91] Malavika Jain Bambawale, Benjamin K. Sovacool. China’s energy security: The perspec-tive of energy users [J]. Applied energy,2011,88(5):1949-1956.
[92]刘耀彬.中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(11):72-81.
[93]赵俊平,马小涛.我国石油供给与需求分析及其平衡策略[J].边疆经济与文化,2011,(2):1-4.
[94]马恒运,郭学先,唐华仓.中国的能源经济形势、机遇挑战和政策建议[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):257-260.
[95]朱富强.中国经济快速增长中的制度隐患—兼论中国经济增长方式面临的转变[J].社会科学研究,2011,(1):34-41.
[96]李永刚.“金砖五国”贸易竞争力的比较分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2013,(1):57-58.
[97]范拓源.资源禀赋视角下的中日国际技术转移研究[J].科技进步与对策,2009,26(10):12-17.
[98]江瑞平.当前日本经济回升的态势、动因、问题与前景[J].日本学刊,2010,(5):47-60.
[99]朴光星.“汉江奇迹”与韩国的企业家精神[J].当代韩国,2009,(4):52-59.
[100]顾晓安,李彬彬,顾宝炎.技术创新对经济发展的影响研究—来自韩国汽车产业的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2007,(12):56-63.
[101] Robert E. Ebel. The geopolitics of Russian energy: looking back, looking forward[M].Center for Strategic&International Studies,2009.
[102]袁新华,徐苑媛.中俄石油合作的历史与阶段研究[J].上海商学院学报,2010,11(2):46-52.
[103]凌胜利.地缘文明视角下的中俄关系[J].西伯利亚研究,2010,37(3):92-95.
[104]曾兴球.中俄油气合作现状和发展前景[J].国际石油经济,2010,(11):39-44.
[105]王海运.“能源超级大国”俄罗斯的能源外交[J].国际石油经济,2006,(10):8-16.
[106]徐德荣,王岩.论中俄石油合作的制约因素[J].西伯利亚研究,2009,36(6):17-21.
[107]刘江永.安倍再度执政后的中日关系展望[J].东北亚论坛,2013,(2):3-14.
[108]石源华,(韩)文恩熙.试论中韩战略合作伙伴关系中的美国因素[J].东北亚论坛,2012,(5):15-22.
[109] Boyan Kavalov, Hrvoje Petric, Evangelos Tzimas. Evolution of the indigenousEuropean oil and gas sources—Recent trends and issues for consideration[J]. Energypolicy,2011,39(1):487-492.
[110]于春苓.论俄罗斯的石油经济[J].世界历史,2011,(5):25-37.
[111] Bert Kruyt, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J.M. de Vries, H. Groenenberg. Indicators for energysecurity[J]. Energy policy,2009,37(6):2166-2181.
[112]王伯安,张德胜.中国石油经济安全评价指标体系设计[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,(1):141-144.
[113]彭民,马海超,李义鹏.海外油气项目投融资环境评价指标及方法选择[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2012,28(2):1-2.
[114]方燕,李美.国际石油价格波动影响因素的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2012,(7):61-62.
[115]何贤杰，吴初国，刘增洁.石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J].自然资源学报，2006,21(2):245-251.
[116]孙鹏,雷涯邻.基于因子分析的国际石油合作潜力评价研究[J].经济研究导刊,2013,(3):197-201.
[117] Hotelling H. Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components[J].Journal of educational psychology,1933,24(6):417-441,498-520.
[118](美)Johnson,(美)Wichern著,陆璇译.实用多元统计分析(第四版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.
[119] Pierpaolo D'Urso, Paolo Giordani. A least squares approach to principal componentanalysis for interval valued data[J].Chemometrics and intelligent laboratory systems,2004,70(2):179-192.
[120]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例(第二版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012.
[121] Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F, Chiclana F. Some issues on consistency of fuzzypreference relations[J]. European journal of operational research,2004,154(1):98-109.
[122] Wang T, Chang T. Application of consistent fuzzy preference relations in predicting thesuccess of knowledge management implementation[J]. European journal of operationalresearch,2007,182(3):1313-1329.
[123] Chao R, Chen Y. Evaluation of the criteria and effectiveness of distance e-learning withconsistent fuzzy preference relations[J]. Expert systems with applications,2009,36(7):10657-10662.
[124] Wang T, Chen Y. Applying fuzzy linguistic preference relations to the improvement ofconsistency of fuzzy AHP[J]. Information sciences.2008,178(19):3755-3765.
[125] Wang T, Chen Y. Applying consistent fuzzy preference relations to partnershipselection[J]. Omega,2007,35(4):384-388.
[126]林向义.企业集成技术创新中的知识整合研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2010．
[127] Saeed Rouhani, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mostafa Jafari. Evaluation model of businessintelligence for enterprise systems using fuzzy TOPSIS[J]. Expert systems withapplications,2012,39:3764-3771.
[128]何贤杰,刘增洁,吴初国等.我国石油安全评价及建议[J].国土资源情报,2012,(10):2-7.
[129]陈伟,夏建华.综合主、客观权重信息的最优组合赋权方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(1):17-22.
[130]迟国泰,王钰娟,刘艳萍.基于三角模糊熵的经济评价模型及副省级城市的实证研究[J].运筹与管理,2010,19(5):112-113.
[131] C. L. Hwang, K. Yoon. Multiple attribute decision making: methods andapplications[M]. springer-verlag, berlin,1981.
[132] H.Deng, C.H.Yeh,R.J.Willis, Inter-company comparison using modified TOPSIS withobjective weights[J]. Computers&operations research,2000,27(4):963-973.
[133]宁方伟.基于信息熵与TOPSIS方法的高新技术企业创业孵化器选择模型[J].情报理论与实践,2013,36(1):115-118.
[134]邵强,张红源.基于模糊AHP/TOPSIS法的项目群构建评价研究[J].江西科学,2011,29(1):122-127.
[135] Renato A. Krohling, Vinicius C. Campanharo. Fuzzy TOPSIS for group decisionmaking: A case study for accidents with oil spill in the sea[J]. Expert systems withapplications,2011,38:4190-4197.
[136]何贤杰,刘增洁,吴初国.中国石油安全评价及建议[J].地质通报,2006,25(9):1108-1111.
[137]马凯.驳“中国能源威胁论”[J].价格理论与实践,2006,(11):4-6.
[138] Guy C.K. Leung. China's energy security: perception and reality[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(3):1330-1337.
[139]周晓波,吴家新,赵媛.中非石油合作的战略意义与重点区域选择[J].世界地理研究,2011,20(1):63-69.
[140] Peter Toft. Intrastate conflict in oil producing states: A threat to global oil supply?[J].Energy policy,2011,39(11):7265-7274.
[141]赵媛,嵇昊威.中非石油合作之石油运输通道研究[J].广东社会科学,2011,(2):25-30.
[142]邹立刚,叶鑫欣.南海资源共同开发的法律机制构建略论[J].河南省政法管理干部学院学报,2011,(1):59-63.
[143]胡德坤,杜婧文.二战后海洋油气资源勘探开发中的国际合作与争端研究[J].武汉大学学报(人文科学版),2011,64(5):98-103.
[144]孙彦彬,李凤升.加快建立东北亚多边石油合作机制[J].中国石油企业,2013,(1):38-39.
[145] Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Bundit Limmeechokchai. Energy security and co-benefits ofenergy efficiency improvement in three Asian countries[J]. Renewable and sustainableenergy reviews,2013,20:491-503.
[146]肖枫.美“重返亚洲”战略与中美关系走向[J].当代世界,2013,(1):30-31.
[147] Camyab, A., McConnach, J.S. A more perfect energy union[J]. Power and energymagazine,2006,4(4):47-56.
[148] Fredrik Hedenus, Christian Azar, Daniel J.A. Johansson. Energy security policies inEU-25—The expected cost of oil supply disruptions[J]. Energy policy,2010,38(3):1241-1250.
[149] Aad Correljé, Coby van der Linde. Energy supply security and geopolitics: AEuropeanperspective[J]. Energy policy,2006,34(5):532-543.
[150] Eui-soon Shin, Tim Savage. Joint stockpiling and emergency sharing of oil: Arrange-ments for regional cooperation in East Asia[J]. Energy policy,2011,39(5):2817-2823.
[151] Frederick H. Murphy, Michael A. Toman, Howard J. Weiss. International cooperation instockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions[J]. Journal of policymodeling,1985,7(4):649-672.
[152] Peter Zweifel, Susanne Bonomo. Energy security coping with multiple supply risks[J].Energy economics,1995,17(3):179-183.
[153]孙彦彬,李凤升.维护石油安全中国必备的战略思考[J].中国石油企业,2012,(3):32-33.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |