水库诱发地震时空演化特征及其动态响应机制研究
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摘要
水库诱发地震(Reservoir-induced seismicity,简称RIS)是由水库蓄水或排水过程引发的一类特殊的地震活动。由于其震中位置一般邻近重要的水利工程设施,且震源浅、震中烈度高,往往具有很大的破坏性,可造成大坝及附近建筑物的破坏和人员伤亡。因此,RIS不仅是水利水电工程研究的重要内容,也是地震学、区域构造稳定性和环境工程地质研究的重要内容之一。
20世纪60年代世界上接连发生水库诱发6级以上强震以后,RIS很快引起社会各界的广泛关注,特别是上世纪80年代以来,RIS逐渐成为地学界研究的热门和前瞻性课题之一。经过半个世纪的探索,人们对RIS的地震学特征、易于诱发地震的地质构造条件、诱震机理及预测评价方法等方面的认识取得了一定的进步,但由于RIS本身的复杂性,目前尚存在着许多问题,例如:(1)前人大多从统计资料来归纳RIS的共性,总结其规律。此方法虽有实用的一面,但并不能从根本上解释RIS成因机制。此外,研究程度较高的几个典型水库都处于剪切或拉张构造应力环境中,目前尚缺少对处于挤压构造应力环境中诱震水库进行详细解剖的实例。因此,亟需跨越震例统计分析的局限,面向挤压构造应力环境的诱震水库,利用多学科的手段和方法,开展多方位的综合研究,探索挤压环境条件下RIS成因机制及诱震主控性因素,丰富RIS理论体系。(2)当前,对RIS力学机制虽然有了一些定性的认识,但对水库水位变化过程中,诱发地震活动在不同时、空尺度上对库体荷载及水库附加水头压力扩散的动态响应机制的认识尚不清晰。倘若能从这方面得到一些由定性到定量的揭示,无疑对RIS诱发机制的探索而言将是一项创新性的工作。(3)在定量化研究方面,前人大多是在半无限弹性介质的假设下,利用格林函数和孔隙压力扩散方程求解应力场和流体压力场,定量讨论断层库仑应力变化对库体荷载及附加水头压力扩散的静态响应问题。这一方法虽然便捷,但在处理复杂介质域时却有很大的局限性。同时,由于他们多采用了简化的地质模型,忽视了发震库区地质构造及水文地质结构复杂性及岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性对RIS的重要影响,因此,很难对发生在围岩体中的中小RIS进行定量化分析。
正是基于以上存在的问题,本文以库水加卸载过程中RIS的时空演化特征及动态响应机制研究为切入点,在系统收集全球最新RIS震例资料,分析其空间分布与时间响应基本特征的基础上,以处于挤压构造背景的紫坪铺水库为重点,较为深入地研究了库区的地质构造及水文地质结构条件、水库蓄水后小震活动的时空演化特征,剖析了小震分布与局部地质构造条件的关系;以先进的岩体介质变形与流体渗流耦合及断层稳定性理论为指导,利用有限元方法计算了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,研究了RIS对库水加卸载及渗透过程动态响应的力学机制,分析了RIS孕发的主控性因素;并结合前人的研究,对紫坪铺水库蓄水与“5.12”汶川大震可能的关联性问题进行了初步的讨论。此研究不仅有助于丰富构造流体动力学的理论体系和拓宽RIS孕育发生机理研究的思路,同时对于区域稳定性评价及RIS预测也有重要的参考价值。
一、主要研究内容及取得的成果与认识
(一)初步分析了全球RIS空间分布与时间响应的基本特征
1.在空间分布上,RIS主要集中在水库周缘10 km范围之内,并局限于特定的库段丛集分布。当库区具备一定的地质构造与水文地质条件时,诱发地震活动会随着水库蓄、放水过程中的水位变化而发生迁移,笔者对迁移类型进行了归纳。
2.对于不同地区或不同水库,诱发地震活动的时间响应存在着差异,总体上:在水库蓄水后1年以内,RIS初次响应占据一定的优势,而绝大部分诱发主震活动发生在水库初始蓄水1年以后;对长时间的水库蓄水历程而言,“混合响应”是RIS活动表现形式的主体,而“快速响应”和“滞后响应”仅是在一定的时间段内反应的阶段性现象;RIS响应与水库水位变化的关系十分复杂多样,既存在正相关关系,又有负相关性,同时在某种程度上表现出了较高震级的RIS对水位变化速率的依赖。
3.RIS时空分布受发震库区地形地貌与局部地质构造条件、岩性条件、水文地质条件等方面的先存内因的控制,事实上,它们对RIS时空分布的控制作用并不是截然分开的,其间存在着相互依存、辩证统一的关系。
(二)建立了针对RIS定量化研究的数理模型,完善了有限元求解程序
1.RIS的发生不仅与库底先存断层等大型结构面有关,而且还受控于断层与围岩的组合形式,以及围岩体的岩石组合、岩性变化反映的岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性。基于此认识,本文将RIS诱发机制的定量化模型分为2个层次:一是以孔隙介质为载体的流体渗流对岩体变形和稳定性的影响,由流-固耦合形式的岩体变形与孔隙渗流模型进行描述,此模型可反映岩体力学性质与渗透性能的不均匀性及其对库水加卸载的变形响应上的差异;二是对断层相关的RIS定量研究则将水库附加水头压力沿断层面(区)的扩散与断层库仑应力变化联系起来。两种形式模型的结合将能对RIS定量研究提供一个相对宏观的力学框架。
2.根据Galerkin有限元理论,推导了“弱积分”形式的有限元公式,并利用有限元程序自动生成软件FEPG编写了计算程序。完善了针对RIS问题的有限元求解方法,尝试解决了以往RIS定量研究中难以处理库区复杂介质条件的问题。
(三)分析了紫坪铺库区及邻近区域地质构造与水文地质结构条件,建立了二维地质模型
1.紫坪铺库区位于青藏高原东缘龙门山造山带的中段,茂县-汶川、北川-映秀、通济场、安县-灌县和广元-大邑5条主干断裂控制了本区的基本构造格架。库区附近的主干断裂都不同程度的具有使地表水体向深部渗流的通道性。在断裂的深部,可能是一种上盘破碎带导水、下盘地层及断层核阻水的“上导下阻型”的新的渗透结构类型,这种断裂渗透结构对孔隙压力变化下断裂的力学响应具有重要的影响。
2.在地质构造单元上,紫坪铺库体座落于龙门山前缘拆离带内。主滑脱面发育在三叠系雷口坡组和嘉陵江组的弱地层中,滑脱面上、下沉积地层组成及构造变形程度、变形样式等都存在着显著的差异。
3.岩体渗透稳定性差异在很大程度上导致了诱发地震活动对岩性条件的依赖。依据谷德振等对岩体结构的分类标准,将研究区的岩体结构分为整体结构、层状结构和散体结构三种类型,岩体渗透稳定性分为高、中、低三个类别。
4.在前人研究的基础上,运用比较构造学和解析构造学的理论和方法,对研究区深浅构造组合特征进行了解析,建立了研究区二维地质构造与水文地质结构模型。
(四)研究了紫坪铺水库蓄水过程中RIS时空演化特征,分析了小震分布与地质构造及岩体渗透稳定性的关系
1.自1970年有较为可靠的现代小震监测记录以来,至紫坪铺水库蓄水之前,库区及邻近区域的中、小地震活动在空间分布上非常分散,时间分布上也未表现出明显的周期性变化规律。
2.利用紫坪铺水库台网2004年8月16日至2008年5月10日期间记录小震的精定位数据,分析了水库蓄水后地震活动的时空演化规律,发现:
(1)紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动明显呈现出条带状分布和丛集分布的特点。震中大多分布于库岸周边10 km范围以内且平行于主构造线呈NE向优势分布;小震活动在水库西南侧、东北侧和坝址下游9～18 km的都江堰市幸福乡、中兴镇和聚源镇一带丛集分布,在库体覆盖区地震活动非常少,几乎为空白区。随水库蓄、放水过程的变化,小震活动亦表现出一定程度的震中迁移特征。
(2)紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震震源深度优势分布在4～10 km范围内,在通济场断裂与安县-灌县断裂的深部汇聚区域震源分布最为密集。同时,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生。
3.水库西南侧和东北侧两个丛集区的小震活动可能属于“快速响应型”诱发地震活动,而都江堰小震群活动可能属于“滞后响应型”水库诱发地震。
(五)揭示了RIS时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的动态响应关系,初步搞清了RIS孕发的主控性因素
1.RIS的发生与库水加卸载及渗透过程中库底岩体有效应力的变化密切相关。在以挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用的结果一般会使库底断层更趋向稳定,而水库附加水头压力扩散的效应则是促使断层趋向失稳,正是这个矛盾双方相互制约与平衡的动态过程,控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向,从而决定了RIS时空演化的规律。从紫坪铺水库蓄水后小震活动的特征来看,亦表明了RIS时空演化受控于ΔCFS的动态变化过程。
2.RIS的诱发条件和因素十分复杂,其中有些与地壳的内动力地质作用有关,也有一些与地表的外动力地质作用关系密切。在影响RIS孕发的诸多因素中,孕震区应变能积累达到临界状态是构造型RIS发生的先决条件,库区断裂渗透结构和岩体渗透稳定性是RIS诱发的主控性内因,水库水位变化幅度是直接影响RIS发生的重要外在条件。当地震孕育过程本身进入临界不稳定状态后,是诱发因子和构造动力学因子的相互作用,共同推动了RIS的孕发过程。研究同时表明,由于库区所处的构造应力环境的不同、发震构造尺度的差异及岩体性质的各向异性,造成了孕震构造达到破裂临界状态的条件亦有所不同,依此合理解释了弱震区或中等震区RIS的发生机率反而较高这一客观现象。
3.孔隙压扩散与诱发地震活动之间存在着相互促进与制约的关系。诱发地震序列初期的微震既是对水库蓄水的响应,又是一种反馈因素,它们为更大规模释放构造应变能的积累创造了条件。
(六)尝试性探讨了紫坪铺水库蓄水与汶川“5.12”大震可能的相关性问题
从地表水体能够下渗的最大深度、水库蓄水后库区及附近区域的波速异常、汶川地震序列与典型中强水库诱发地震序列的差异以及弹性介质条件假设下震源处的断层库仑应力变化等方面,对汶川8.0级大地震与紫坪铺水库蓄水可能的关联性问题进行了初步的讨论。分析认为:从目前掌握的资料来看,尚未发现汶川8.0级大震与紫坪铺水库蓄水有关系的直接证据;由于汶川大地震的成核区域在地下约19 km深处的脆韧性转换带内,对于此深度范围内断裂渗透结构的变化、流体状态及其运移特征等,目前我们还知之甚少。因此,对它们之间相关性更为全面的认识依赖于上述研究取得突破性的进展。
二、研究取得的主要进展
1.本项研究综合了地质学、地震学和力学等多学科的方法,体现出集成性、前瞻性的特色,为挤压为主的构造应力环境中RIS综合研究的探索提供了一个范例。
2.发现了紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生的现象,进一步证实了RIS对岩体渗透稳定性的依赖。
3.充分考虑了库底先存断层、断层与围岩的组合形式,以及围岩体的岩石组合、岩性变化反映的岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性等对RIS的影响,将RIS诱发机制的定量化模型分为2个层次,建立了相对宏观的定量评价的力学框架,尝试解决了以往难以处理库区复杂介质条件的问题。
4.基于岩体介质变形与流体渗流耦合及断层稳定性理论进行了有限元数值模拟,分析了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,揭示了紫坪铺水库诱发地震的可能成因及诱震主控性因素。进一步证实了挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用一般使库底断层更趋向稳定,水库附加水头压力扩散的效应是促使断层趋向失稳。认为这两个因素相互制约与平衡的动态过程控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向与RIS时空演化的规律。
Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS), which is generated in the process of reservoir storage or drainage, is a special kind of earthquakes. Because these shocks generally occur near important water conservancy establishments and commonly with low focal depth and high seismic intensity, sometimes they can cause very big destructiveness, and may cause personnel casualties and damage of the dams and buildings nearby. Therefore RIS is not only an important study of the water conservancy and hydropower project field, but also one of important contents in seismology, regional geological stability and environmental engineering geology.
After several reservoir-induced earthquakes with M≥6 occurred one after another in the world in the 1960s, RIS had quickly drawn the society's widespread attention, especially from the 1980s, it has gradually become one of the focused and forward-looking topics in the geoscience field. Through half a century’s exploratory study, many a progress have been achieved in such aspects as seismological characteristics, conditions of geological structure being prone to induce seismic activities, mechanism, forecasting and assessing methods for RIS, and so on. While RIS is so complex that there are still a lot of difficult problems at present. For instance, previous studies mostly focused on summing up commonness and rules of RIS from statistical data. Although this method is practical, it still can not explain the origin mechanism of RIS fundamentally. Furthermore, several representative reservoirs studied in relatively high degree were all in extensional or shearing tectonic environments, there has still been short of the detailedly studied example in the compressional tectonic stress environment. Therefore, it needs to break the limitation of statistical analysis, and choose some typical reservoirs which are relatively rich in basic data and have relatively perfect reservoir earthquake monitoring station networks, utilizing multi-disciplinary methods to conduct synthetic study in multi-aspects, to explore the generation mechanism and main controlling factors of RIS, to enrich RIS system info. Presently, although there have been some qualitative understandings of RIS mechanism, it is still not clear what is the dynamic response mechanism of the RIS activities in space-time that responds the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and additional water pressure diffusion. If some revelations can be obtained from qualitative analysis to quantitative study in this aspect, certainly, it will be an innovative work for RIS mechanism's exploration. In the quantitative study, mainly based on the semi-infinitely elastic medium supposition, the previous work has discussed the static response problems for fault Coulomb stress changes responding to reservoir water body loading and additional water pressure diffusion by using the Green’s function and the pore pressure diffusion equation to solve the stress field and fluid pressure field. Although this method is very convenient, it has a very big limitation when processing complex media condition. At the same time, because they mostly used simplified geological models, and neglected the important influence of those, including complexities of geologic structure and hydrogeology structure, asymmetries of rock-mass’s mechanical properties and permeability, they can hardly quantitatively analyze the small-medium RIS occurring in surrounding rock-mass.
According to the above problems, this thesis focuses on the study of evolution characteristics in space-time and dynamic response mechanism of RIS, systematically collects the newest data of global RIS cases, and analyzes the basic features of them in spatial distribution and time response. Taking the Zipingpu reservoir for an example, which is in the compressional tectonic stress environment, this work has studied the geological structure and hydrogeological conditions of the reservoir area, characteristics of swarm earthquake evolution in space-time after reservoir storage impounding, and the relationship between the distribution of swarm earthquakes and the local geological structure. According to the advanced theory of rock-mass deformation and fluid flow coupling and fault stability and using the finite elemental method, the elastic additional stress field, effective additional stress field, pore pressure and fault stability during the process of reservoir storage impounding were calculated. The major induced factors of RIS and the relationship between the evolvement of RIS in space-time and the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and water infiltration were studied. Combined with previous study, the possible relationship between Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding and the Wenchuan earthquake was attempted to be discussed. This study will be not only helpful for enriching the theoretical system of structure fluid dynamics and broadening thinkings of RIS mechanism research, but also have an important reference value for regional stability evaluation and RIS forecast.
1.Main research contents and results
(1) Analysis on basic characteristics of spatial distribution and time response of global RIS
ⅰ. In the spatial distribution, RIS mainly concentrated in the range of 10 km away from the reservoir margin and confined to a particular segment of the reservoir. When a certain condition of geological structure and hydrogeological conditions are met in the reservoir region, the activities of RIS will migrate with the changes of water level during water storage and drainage. The types of migration have been summed up in this thesis.
ⅱ. The time responses of RIS are different from region to region and from reservoir to reservoir. In general, RIS’s initial response is dominant when the reservoir is filled less than 1 year, while most of the main earthquakes of RIS occur in more than 1 year after the reservoir initial storage. The“mixture response”is the main form of RIS activities for the long process of reservoir storage, while the“rapid response”and“delayed response”are only a periodic phenomenon. RIS response has very complex and diverse relationships with the reservoir water level changes, which can be positive correlation or negative correlation, and higher magnitude of RIS shows certain dependence on the rate of water level changes.
ⅲ. RIS spatial and temporal distribution is controlled by the existing internal causes including local terrain features, geological structure, lithologic and hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area. In fact, all these causes that influenc the spatial and temporal distribution of RIS are interdependent and dialectical united and can not be completely separated.
(2) Establishment of the mathematical model for the quantitative study of RIS and improvement of the finite element solving procedure
ⅰ.The incidence of RIS is not only in connection with pre-existing large-scale faults under the reservoir area, but also controlled by the combination form of faults and their surrounding rock-mass, rock-mass composition, and heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality reflected by the lithologic changes. Based on this understanding, a mathematical model for RIS is divided into two levels in this paper: One is the rock-mass distortion and stability influenced by liquid seepage in porous rock media, which is described by a solid-liquid coupling modal. This model can reflect the heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality in surrounding rock-masses and their deformation differences in response to the process of reservoir water body loading and unloading. The other is a fault-related quantitative model for RIS, which is described by the linkage between additional reservoir water pressure diffusion along the faults and change of Coulomb failure stress on fault plane. The combination of two forms of modeling approach provides a comparatively macro-mechanical framework for RIS quantitative study.
ⅱ. According to Galerkin’s finite element theory, the“weak integral”form of finite element formulation has been deduced, and a calculation program has been compiled utilizing the finite element program automatically generating software FEPG. An attempt is made to solve the difficult problem of dealing with complex media conditions in quantitative studies.
(3) Construction of a two-dimensional geological model based on analysis of the geological structure and hydrogeological conditions in the Zipingpu reservoir and adjacent regions
ⅰ. The Zipingpu reservoir is located in the middle of the Longmenshan orogenic belt in the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Five major faults including the Maoxian-Wenchuan, Beichuan-Yingxiu, Tongjichang, Anxian-Guanxian and Guangyuan-Dayi controls the basic structure frame of the study area., The main faults near the reservoir area can provide a leak path for the surface water flowing into the deep crust to various degrees. At deep depths of these faults, there may be a new permeability structure type, which is water-conductive in hanging wall strata and water-resisting in footwall strata. This fault permeability structure has an important influence on the mechanical response under a changing pore pressure.
ⅱ. In the geological tectonic units, the Zipingpu reservoir lies in the frontal detachment zone of the Longmenshan system. In the vertical direction, the detachment zone is separated by the sedimentary formation of the Leikoupo group and Jialingjiang group of Triassic as a slide plane. The formation composition, tectonic deformation degrees and styles are significantly different between the upper part and lower part.
ⅲThe cause of induced seismic activities depending on the lithologic conditions is mainly influenced by the difference of permeability stability of rock-mass. According to Gu Dezhen’s classification standard, the rock-mass structure in the studied area can be divided into three types, which are integral structure, layered structure and unconsolidated structure, and the permeability stability of rock-mass can be divided into 3 types which are high, medium and low.
ⅳ. Based on previous research and combined with the theory and methods of comparative tectonics and analytical tectonics, a two-dimensional geological model has been built up by analyzing the structural characteristics in upper and lower formations in the study area.
(4) Evolution characteristics of RIS in space-time during the process of reservoir storage impounding and the relationship between small earthquake distribution and geological structure and permeability stability of rock-mass in the Zipingpu reservoir area
ⅰ. From 1970, when small earthquakes could be relatively reliably monitored in the study area, to the time of Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the middle-small earthquakes taking place in Zipingpu reservoir area and its adjacent regions were scattered in spatial distribution, and also did not show obviously cyclical variation in time distribution.
ⅱ. Making use of the accurate seismic data which were relocated by the double difference location method from August 16, 2004 to May 10, 2008 recorded by the Zipingpu reservoir network, the characteristics of swarm earthquake evolution in space-time after the reservoir storage impounding have been analyzed and found that:
(ⅰ) After Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the activity of small earthquakes in the spatial distribution exhibited banded or cluster distribution characteristics. Most epicenters were concentrated within 10 km range away from the reservoir margin, and predominantly distributed in NE direction parallel to the main structure line. The small earthquakes were clustered in the northeast and southwest of the reservoir, and also in 9~18 km downstream of the dam site which is adjacent to Xingfu, Zhongxing and Juyuan town of Dujiangyan city. While in the reservoir water body covered area, there was little earthquakes. The small earthquakes also shows characteristics of seismic migration accompanying with water level changes with reservoir’s being loaded or unloaded.
(ⅱ) After Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the source depths of small earthquakes were preponderantly distributed in the range of 4~10 km under the ground, and the deep pooling area of the Tongjichang fault and Anxian-guanxian fault was most intensive. Meanwhile, the small earthquakes mainly occurred in the carbonate rock-masses with high brittle lithology and low infiltration stability, but there were little earthquakes occurred in the Triassic Xujiahe sand mudstone and coal measure strata which were relatively weak in lithology and high in infiltration stability.
ⅲ. For the responding speed of RIS, the small earthquakes in the southwest and northeast seismic cluster area of the reservoir maybe belong to“rapid responsing type”, and the Dujiangyan small seismic swarm maybe fall into“delay responsive”induced seismicity.
(5) Major induced factors of RIS and the relationship between the evolution of RIS in space-time and the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and water infiltration
ⅰ. RIS is closely related to the change of effective additional stress in rock-masses under the reservoir body. In dominant compressional tectonic stress environment, the result of reservoir water body loading tends to make the faults more stable, while the effect of additional water pressure diffusion tends to promote instability of the faults. It is the dynamic process, in which two contradiction sides restrict and balance each other, that controls the orientation of Coulomb failure stress changes, and determines the characteristics of RIS evolution. The characteristics of small earthquakes after Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding also indicates that the evolution of RIS in space-time is controlled by the dynamic process ofΔCFS.
ⅱ. The inducing conditions and factors of RIS are very complicated, some of which are connected with endogenic geological process of the crust, and others closely related to exogenic process. Among those factors which probably affect RIS’s pregnancy and occurrence, the precondition is accumulated elastic strain energy in a seismogenic zone having reached critical state. the principal internal controlling factors are features of fault permeability structure and permeability stability of rock-mass in the reservoir area, and the change scope of water level is the importantly external condition which can directly influence RIS. When the seismic pregnant process having reached critical state, it is the interaction between inducing factors and tectonic dynamic factors that impells the process of RIS’s pregnancy and occurrence.The study has also indicated that because of differences in tectonic stress environment, seismogenic structure scale, and aeolotropy of rock-mass, the critical states of seismogenic structure are different too. According to that, the objective phenomenon that there is relatively high occurrence probability of RIS in a seismic zone of weak-middle activity can be reasonably interpreted.
ⅲ. There is a mutually stimulative and restrictive relationship between pore presses diffusion and RIS. The microseisms in the initial period of induced seismic sequence were not only a response to the reservoir storage, but also one kind of feedback factor, and created conditions for the large-scale release of elastic strain energy.
(6) Possible correlation between the Zipingpu reservoir storge impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake
The possible correlation between the Zipingpu reservoir storge impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake has been discussed tentatively based on the analysis, including the lower limit depth of ground surface water’s seepage, the P wave velocity abnormlies in the reservoir area and its vicinities after storage impounding, the differences in characteristics of seismic sequence between the Wenchuan M8.0 earhquake and representative RIS,ΔCFS near the epicenter on the assumption of elastic media condition, and so on. The analysis suggests that there is no direct evidence to prove the obvious relationship between the Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake. The nuclear region of this great shock located in the brittle-ductile transition zone about 19 km under the ground, and scientists have realized little about the changes of fault permeability structure, state and transportation characteristics of the liquid at that depth. Therefore, a more comprehensive understanding about this relationship will rely on unprecedented progress in the above research fields.
2. Main progresses of this study
(1) Multi-disciplinary methods have been synthesized, such as geology, seismology, mechanics, and so on, and integral and forward-looking studying characteristics has also been incarnated. The thesis will provide a typical model for RIS synthetic study in the future.
(2) It has been discovered that the small earthquakes mainly occurred in the carbonate rock-masses with high brittle lithology and low infiltration stability, but there were little earthquakes occurred in the Triassic Xujiahe sand mudstone and coal measure strata which are relatively weak in lithology and high in infiltration stability. RIS’s depending on permeable stability of rock-mass has been further proved.
(3) The incidence of RIS is not only in connection with pre-existing large-scale faults under the reservoir area, but also controlled by the combination form of faults and their surrounding rock-mass, rock-mass composition, and heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality reflected by the lithologic changes. Based on this understanding, a mathematical model for RIS is divided into two levels in this paper, the combination of two forms of modeling approach provides a comparatively macro-mechanical framework for RIS quantitative study. An attempt is made to solve the difficult problem of dealing with complex media conditions in quantitative studies.
(4) Based on the coupling theory of solid deformation and liquid seepage and fault stability theory, the dynamic changes of elastic additional stress field, effective additional stress field, pore pressure and fault stability have been calculated and analyzed. Major induced factors and the possibile causes for RIS ocuuring after the Zipingpu resevior impounding have been discovered. It has been approved futher that In dominant compressional tectonic stress environment, the result of reservoir water body loading tends to make the faults more stable, while the effect of additional water pressure diffusion tends to promote instability of the faults. It is the dynamic process, in which two contradiction sides restrict and balance each other, that controls the orientation of Coulomb failure stress changes, and determines the characteristics of RIS evolution.
20世纪60年代世界上接连发生水库诱发6级以上强震以后,RIS很快引起社会各界的广泛关注,特别是上世纪80年代以来,RIS逐渐成为地学界研究的热门和前瞻性课题之一。经过半个世纪的探索,人们对RIS的地震学特征、易于诱发地震的地质构造条件、诱震机理及预测评价方法等方面的认识取得了一定的进步,但由于RIS本身的复杂性,目前尚存在着许多问题,例如:(1)前人大多从统计资料来归纳RIS的共性,总结其规律。此方法虽有实用的一面,但并不能从根本上解释RIS成因机制。此外,研究程度较高的几个典型水库都处于剪切或拉张构造应力环境中,目前尚缺少对处于挤压构造应力环境中诱震水库进行详细解剖的实例。因此,亟需跨越震例统计分析的局限,面向挤压构造应力环境的诱震水库,利用多学科的手段和方法,开展多方位的综合研究,探索挤压环境条件下RIS成因机制及诱震主控性因素,丰富RIS理论体系。(2)当前,对RIS力学机制虽然有了一些定性的认识,但对水库水位变化过程中,诱发地震活动在不同时、空尺度上对库体荷载及水库附加水头压力扩散的动态响应机制的认识尚不清晰。倘若能从这方面得到一些由定性到定量的揭示,无疑对RIS诱发机制的探索而言将是一项创新性的工作。(3)在定量化研究方面,前人大多是在半无限弹性介质的假设下,利用格林函数和孔隙压力扩散方程求解应力场和流体压力场,定量讨论断层库仑应力变化对库体荷载及附加水头压力扩散的静态响应问题。这一方法虽然便捷,但在处理复杂介质域时却有很大的局限性。同时,由于他们多采用了简化的地质模型,忽视了发震库区地质构造及水文地质结构复杂性及岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性对RIS的重要影响,因此,很难对发生在围岩体中的中小RIS进行定量化分析。
正是基于以上存在的问题,本文以库水加卸载过程中RIS的时空演化特征及动态响应机制研究为切入点,在系统收集全球最新RIS震例资料,分析其空间分布与时间响应基本特征的基础上,以处于挤压构造背景的紫坪铺水库为重点,较为深入地研究了库区的地质构造及水文地质结构条件、水库蓄水后小震活动的时空演化特征,剖析了小震分布与局部地质构造条件的关系;以先进的岩体介质变形与流体渗流耦合及断层稳定性理论为指导,利用有限元方法计算了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,研究了RIS对库水加卸载及渗透过程动态响应的力学机制,分析了RIS孕发的主控性因素;并结合前人的研究,对紫坪铺水库蓄水与“5.12”汶川大震可能的关联性问题进行了初步的讨论。此研究不仅有助于丰富构造流体动力学的理论体系和拓宽RIS孕育发生机理研究的思路,同时对于区域稳定性评价及RIS预测也有重要的参考价值。
一、主要研究内容及取得的成果与认识
(一)初步分析了全球RIS空间分布与时间响应的基本特征
1.在空间分布上,RIS主要集中在水库周缘10 km范围之内,并局限于特定的库段丛集分布。当库区具备一定的地质构造与水文地质条件时,诱发地震活动会随着水库蓄、放水过程中的水位变化而发生迁移,笔者对迁移类型进行了归纳。
2.对于不同地区或不同水库,诱发地震活动的时间响应存在着差异,总体上:在水库蓄水后1年以内,RIS初次响应占据一定的优势,而绝大部分诱发主震活动发生在水库初始蓄水1年以后;对长时间的水库蓄水历程而言,“混合响应”是RIS活动表现形式的主体,而“快速响应”和“滞后响应”仅是在一定的时间段内反应的阶段性现象;RIS响应与水库水位变化的关系十分复杂多样,既存在正相关关系,又有负相关性,同时在某种程度上表现出了较高震级的RIS对水位变化速率的依赖。
3.RIS时空分布受发震库区地形地貌与局部地质构造条件、岩性条件、水文地质条件等方面的先存内因的控制,事实上,它们对RIS时空分布的控制作用并不是截然分开的,其间存在着相互依存、辩证统一的关系。
(二)建立了针对RIS定量化研究的数理模型,完善了有限元求解程序
1.RIS的发生不仅与库底先存断层等大型结构面有关,而且还受控于断层与围岩的组合形式,以及围岩体的岩石组合、岩性变化反映的岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性。基于此认识,本文将RIS诱发机制的定量化模型分为2个层次:一是以孔隙介质为载体的流体渗流对岩体变形和稳定性的影响,由流-固耦合形式的岩体变形与孔隙渗流模型进行描述,此模型可反映岩体力学性质与渗透性能的不均匀性及其对库水加卸载的变形响应上的差异;二是对断层相关的RIS定量研究则将水库附加水头压力沿断层面(区)的扩散与断层库仑应力变化联系起来。两种形式模型的结合将能对RIS定量研究提供一个相对宏观的力学框架。
2.根据Galerkin有限元理论,推导了“弱积分”形式的有限元公式,并利用有限元程序自动生成软件FEPG编写了计算程序。完善了针对RIS问题的有限元求解方法,尝试解决了以往RIS定量研究中难以处理库区复杂介质条件的问题。
(三)分析了紫坪铺库区及邻近区域地质构造与水文地质结构条件,建立了二维地质模型
1.紫坪铺库区位于青藏高原东缘龙门山造山带的中段,茂县-汶川、北川-映秀、通济场、安县-灌县和广元-大邑5条主干断裂控制了本区的基本构造格架。库区附近的主干断裂都不同程度的具有使地表水体向深部渗流的通道性。在断裂的深部,可能是一种上盘破碎带导水、下盘地层及断层核阻水的“上导下阻型”的新的渗透结构类型,这种断裂渗透结构对孔隙压力变化下断裂的力学响应具有重要的影响。
2.在地质构造单元上,紫坪铺库体座落于龙门山前缘拆离带内。主滑脱面发育在三叠系雷口坡组和嘉陵江组的弱地层中,滑脱面上、下沉积地层组成及构造变形程度、变形样式等都存在着显著的差异。
3.岩体渗透稳定性差异在很大程度上导致了诱发地震活动对岩性条件的依赖。依据谷德振等对岩体结构的分类标准,将研究区的岩体结构分为整体结构、层状结构和散体结构三种类型,岩体渗透稳定性分为高、中、低三个类别。
4.在前人研究的基础上,运用比较构造学和解析构造学的理论和方法,对研究区深浅构造组合特征进行了解析,建立了研究区二维地质构造与水文地质结构模型。
(四)研究了紫坪铺水库蓄水过程中RIS时空演化特征,分析了小震分布与地质构造及岩体渗透稳定性的关系
1.自1970年有较为可靠的现代小震监测记录以来,至紫坪铺水库蓄水之前,库区及邻近区域的中、小地震活动在空间分布上非常分散,时间分布上也未表现出明显的周期性变化规律。
2.利用紫坪铺水库台网2004年8月16日至2008年5月10日期间记录小震的精定位数据,分析了水库蓄水后地震活动的时空演化规律,发现:
(1)紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动明显呈现出条带状分布和丛集分布的特点。震中大多分布于库岸周边10 km范围以内且平行于主构造线呈NE向优势分布;小震活动在水库西南侧、东北侧和坝址下游9～18 km的都江堰市幸福乡、中兴镇和聚源镇一带丛集分布,在库体覆盖区地震活动非常少,几乎为空白区。随水库蓄、放水过程的变化,小震活动亦表现出一定程度的震中迁移特征。
(2)紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震震源深度优势分布在4～10 km范围内,在通济场断裂与安县-灌县断裂的深部汇聚区域震源分布最为密集。同时,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生。
3.水库西南侧和东北侧两个丛集区的小震活动可能属于“快速响应型”诱发地震活动,而都江堰小震群活动可能属于“滞后响应型”水库诱发地震。
(五)揭示了RIS时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的动态响应关系,初步搞清了RIS孕发的主控性因素
1.RIS的发生与库水加卸载及渗透过程中库底岩体有效应力的变化密切相关。在以挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用的结果一般会使库底断层更趋向稳定,而水库附加水头压力扩散的效应则是促使断层趋向失稳,正是这个矛盾双方相互制约与平衡的动态过程,控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向,从而决定了RIS时空演化的规律。从紫坪铺水库蓄水后小震活动的特征来看,亦表明了RIS时空演化受控于ΔCFS的动态变化过程。
2.RIS的诱发条件和因素十分复杂,其中有些与地壳的内动力地质作用有关,也有一些与地表的外动力地质作用关系密切。在影响RIS孕发的诸多因素中,孕震区应变能积累达到临界状态是构造型RIS发生的先决条件,库区断裂渗透结构和岩体渗透稳定性是RIS诱发的主控性内因,水库水位变化幅度是直接影响RIS发生的重要外在条件。当地震孕育过程本身进入临界不稳定状态后,是诱发因子和构造动力学因子的相互作用,共同推动了RIS的孕发过程。研究同时表明,由于库区所处的构造应力环境的不同、发震构造尺度的差异及岩体性质的各向异性,造成了孕震构造达到破裂临界状态的条件亦有所不同,依此合理解释了弱震区或中等震区RIS的发生机率反而较高这一客观现象。
3.孔隙压扩散与诱发地震活动之间存在着相互促进与制约的关系。诱发地震序列初期的微震既是对水库蓄水的响应,又是一种反馈因素,它们为更大规模释放构造应变能的积累创造了条件。
(六)尝试性探讨了紫坪铺水库蓄水与汶川“5.12”大震可能的相关性问题
从地表水体能够下渗的最大深度、水库蓄水后库区及附近区域的波速异常、汶川地震序列与典型中强水库诱发地震序列的差异以及弹性介质条件假设下震源处的断层库仑应力变化等方面,对汶川8.0级大地震与紫坪铺水库蓄水可能的关联性问题进行了初步的讨论。分析认为:从目前掌握的资料来看,尚未发现汶川8.0级大震与紫坪铺水库蓄水有关系的直接证据;由于汶川大地震的成核区域在地下约19 km深处的脆韧性转换带内,对于此深度范围内断裂渗透结构的变化、流体状态及其运移特征等,目前我们还知之甚少。因此,对它们之间相关性更为全面的认识依赖于上述研究取得突破性的进展。
二、研究取得的主要进展
1.本项研究综合了地质学、地震学和力学等多学科的方法,体现出集成性、前瞻性的特色,为挤压为主的构造应力环境中RIS综合研究的探索提供了一个范例。
2.发现了紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生的现象,进一步证实了RIS对岩体渗透稳定性的依赖。
3.充分考虑了库底先存断层、断层与围岩的组合形式,以及围岩体的岩石组合、岩性变化反映的岩体力学性质与渗透性能不均匀性等对RIS的影响,将RIS诱发机制的定量化模型分为2个层次,建立了相对宏观的定量评价的力学框架,尝试解决了以往难以处理库区复杂介质条件的问题。
4.基于岩体介质变形与流体渗流耦合及断层稳定性理论进行了有限元数值模拟,分析了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,揭示了紫坪铺水库诱发地震的可能成因及诱震主控性因素。进一步证实了挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用一般使库底断层更趋向稳定,水库附加水头压力扩散的效应是促使断层趋向失稳。认为这两个因素相互制约与平衡的动态过程控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向与RIS时空演化的规律。
Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS), which is generated in the process of reservoir storage or drainage, is a special kind of earthquakes. Because these shocks generally occur near important water conservancy establishments and commonly with low focal depth and high seismic intensity, sometimes they can cause very big destructiveness, and may cause personnel casualties and damage of the dams and buildings nearby. Therefore RIS is not only an important study of the water conservancy and hydropower project field, but also one of important contents in seismology, regional geological stability and environmental engineering geology.
After several reservoir-induced earthquakes with M≥6 occurred one after another in the world in the 1960s, RIS had quickly drawn the society's widespread attention, especially from the 1980s, it has gradually become one of the focused and forward-looking topics in the geoscience field. Through half a century’s exploratory study, many a progress have been achieved in such aspects as seismological characteristics, conditions of geological structure being prone to induce seismic activities, mechanism, forecasting and assessing methods for RIS, and so on. While RIS is so complex that there are still a lot of difficult problems at present. For instance, previous studies mostly focused on summing up commonness and rules of RIS from statistical data. Although this method is practical, it still can not explain the origin mechanism of RIS fundamentally. Furthermore, several representative reservoirs studied in relatively high degree were all in extensional or shearing tectonic environments, there has still been short of the detailedly studied example in the compressional tectonic stress environment. Therefore, it needs to break the limitation of statistical analysis, and choose some typical reservoirs which are relatively rich in basic data and have relatively perfect reservoir earthquake monitoring station networks, utilizing multi-disciplinary methods to conduct synthetic study in multi-aspects, to explore the generation mechanism and main controlling factors of RIS, to enrich RIS system info. Presently, although there have been some qualitative understandings of RIS mechanism, it is still not clear what is the dynamic response mechanism of the RIS activities in space-time that responds the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and additional water pressure diffusion. If some revelations can be obtained from qualitative analysis to quantitative study in this aspect, certainly, it will be an innovative work for RIS mechanism's exploration. In the quantitative study, mainly based on the semi-infinitely elastic medium supposition, the previous work has discussed the static response problems for fault Coulomb stress changes responding to reservoir water body loading and additional water pressure diffusion by using the Green’s function and the pore pressure diffusion equation to solve the stress field and fluid pressure field. Although this method is very convenient, it has a very big limitation when processing complex media condition. At the same time, because they mostly used simplified geological models, and neglected the important influence of those, including complexities of geologic structure and hydrogeology structure, asymmetries of rock-mass’s mechanical properties and permeability, they can hardly quantitatively analyze the small-medium RIS occurring in surrounding rock-mass.
According to the above problems, this thesis focuses on the study of evolution characteristics in space-time and dynamic response mechanism of RIS, systematically collects the newest data of global RIS cases, and analyzes the basic features of them in spatial distribution and time response. Taking the Zipingpu reservoir for an example, which is in the compressional tectonic stress environment, this work has studied the geological structure and hydrogeological conditions of the reservoir area, characteristics of swarm earthquake evolution in space-time after reservoir storage impounding, and the relationship between the distribution of swarm earthquakes and the local geological structure. According to the advanced theory of rock-mass deformation and fluid flow coupling and fault stability and using the finite elemental method, the elastic additional stress field, effective additional stress field, pore pressure and fault stability during the process of reservoir storage impounding were calculated. The major induced factors of RIS and the relationship between the evolvement of RIS in space-time and the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and water infiltration were studied. Combined with previous study, the possible relationship between Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding and the Wenchuan earthquake was attempted to be discussed. This study will be not only helpful for enriching the theoretical system of structure fluid dynamics and broadening thinkings of RIS mechanism research, but also have an important reference value for regional stability evaluation and RIS forecast.
1.Main research contents and results
(1) Analysis on basic characteristics of spatial distribution and time response of global RIS
ⅰ. In the spatial distribution, RIS mainly concentrated in the range of 10 km away from the reservoir margin and confined to a particular segment of the reservoir. When a certain condition of geological structure and hydrogeological conditions are met in the reservoir region, the activities of RIS will migrate with the changes of water level during water storage and drainage. The types of migration have been summed up in this thesis.
ⅱ. The time responses of RIS are different from region to region and from reservoir to reservoir. In general, RIS’s initial response is dominant when the reservoir is filled less than 1 year, while most of the main earthquakes of RIS occur in more than 1 year after the reservoir initial storage. The“mixture response”is the main form of RIS activities for the long process of reservoir storage, while the“rapid response”and“delayed response”are only a periodic phenomenon. RIS response has very complex and diverse relationships with the reservoir water level changes, which can be positive correlation or negative correlation, and higher magnitude of RIS shows certain dependence on the rate of water level changes.
ⅲ. RIS spatial and temporal distribution is controlled by the existing internal causes including local terrain features, geological structure, lithologic and hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area. In fact, all these causes that influenc the spatial and temporal distribution of RIS are interdependent and dialectical united and can not be completely separated.
(2) Establishment of the mathematical model for the quantitative study of RIS and improvement of the finite element solving procedure
ⅰ.The incidence of RIS is not only in connection with pre-existing large-scale faults under the reservoir area, but also controlled by the combination form of faults and their surrounding rock-mass, rock-mass composition, and heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality reflected by the lithologic changes. Based on this understanding, a mathematical model for RIS is divided into two levels in this paper: One is the rock-mass distortion and stability influenced by liquid seepage in porous rock media, which is described by a solid-liquid coupling modal. This model can reflect the heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality in surrounding rock-masses and their deformation differences in response to the process of reservoir water body loading and unloading. The other is a fault-related quantitative model for RIS, which is described by the linkage between additional reservoir water pressure diffusion along the faults and change of Coulomb failure stress on fault plane. The combination of two forms of modeling approach provides a comparatively macro-mechanical framework for RIS quantitative study.
ⅱ. According to Galerkin’s finite element theory, the“weak integral”form of finite element formulation has been deduced, and a calculation program has been compiled utilizing the finite element program automatically generating software FEPG. An attempt is made to solve the difficult problem of dealing with complex media conditions in quantitative studies.
(3) Construction of a two-dimensional geological model based on analysis of the geological structure and hydrogeological conditions in the Zipingpu reservoir and adjacent regions
ⅰ. The Zipingpu reservoir is located in the middle of the Longmenshan orogenic belt in the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Five major faults including the Maoxian-Wenchuan, Beichuan-Yingxiu, Tongjichang, Anxian-Guanxian and Guangyuan-Dayi controls the basic structure frame of the study area., The main faults near the reservoir area can provide a leak path for the surface water flowing into the deep crust to various degrees. At deep depths of these faults, there may be a new permeability structure type, which is water-conductive in hanging wall strata and water-resisting in footwall strata. This fault permeability structure has an important influence on the mechanical response under a changing pore pressure.
ⅱ. In the geological tectonic units, the Zipingpu reservoir lies in the frontal detachment zone of the Longmenshan system. In the vertical direction, the detachment zone is separated by the sedimentary formation of the Leikoupo group and Jialingjiang group of Triassic as a slide plane. The formation composition, tectonic deformation degrees and styles are significantly different between the upper part and lower part.
ⅲThe cause of induced seismic activities depending on the lithologic conditions is mainly influenced by the difference of permeability stability of rock-mass. According to Gu Dezhen’s classification standard, the rock-mass structure in the studied area can be divided into three types, which are integral structure, layered structure and unconsolidated structure, and the permeability stability of rock-mass can be divided into 3 types which are high, medium and low.
ⅳ. Based on previous research and combined with the theory and methods of comparative tectonics and analytical tectonics, a two-dimensional geological model has been built up by analyzing the structural characteristics in upper and lower formations in the study area.
(4) Evolution characteristics of RIS in space-time during the process of reservoir storage impounding and the relationship between small earthquake distribution and geological structure and permeability stability of rock-mass in the Zipingpu reservoir area
ⅰ. From 1970, when small earthquakes could be relatively reliably monitored in the study area, to the time of Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the middle-small earthquakes taking place in Zipingpu reservoir area and its adjacent regions were scattered in spatial distribution, and also did not show obviously cyclical variation in time distribution.
ⅱ. Making use of the accurate seismic data which were relocated by the double difference location method from August 16, 2004 to May 10, 2008 recorded by the Zipingpu reservoir network, the characteristics of swarm earthquake evolution in space-time after the reservoir storage impounding have been analyzed and found that:
(ⅰ) After Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the activity of small earthquakes in the spatial distribution exhibited banded or cluster distribution characteristics. Most epicenters were concentrated within 10 km range away from the reservoir margin, and predominantly distributed in NE direction parallel to the main structure line. The small earthquakes were clustered in the northeast and southwest of the reservoir, and also in 9~18 km downstream of the dam site which is adjacent to Xingfu, Zhongxing and Juyuan town of Dujiangyan city. While in the reservoir water body covered area, there was little earthquakes. The small earthquakes also shows characteristics of seismic migration accompanying with water level changes with reservoir’s being loaded or unloaded.
(ⅱ) After Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding, the source depths of small earthquakes were preponderantly distributed in the range of 4~10 km under the ground, and the deep pooling area of the Tongjichang fault and Anxian-guanxian fault was most intensive. Meanwhile, the small earthquakes mainly occurred in the carbonate rock-masses with high brittle lithology and low infiltration stability, but there were little earthquakes occurred in the Triassic Xujiahe sand mudstone and coal measure strata which were relatively weak in lithology and high in infiltration stability.
ⅲ. For the responding speed of RIS, the small earthquakes in the southwest and northeast seismic cluster area of the reservoir maybe belong to“rapid responsing type”, and the Dujiangyan small seismic swarm maybe fall into“delay responsive”induced seismicity.
(5) Major induced factors of RIS and the relationship between the evolution of RIS in space-time and the process of reservoir water body load-unloading and water infiltration
ⅰ. RIS is closely related to the change of effective additional stress in rock-masses under the reservoir body. In dominant compressional tectonic stress environment, the result of reservoir water body loading tends to make the faults more stable, while the effect of additional water pressure diffusion tends to promote instability of the faults. It is the dynamic process, in which two contradiction sides restrict and balance each other, that controls the orientation of Coulomb failure stress changes, and determines the characteristics of RIS evolution. The characteristics of small earthquakes after Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding also indicates that the evolution of RIS in space-time is controlled by the dynamic process ofΔCFS.
ⅱ. The inducing conditions and factors of RIS are very complicated, some of which are connected with endogenic geological process of the crust, and others closely related to exogenic process. Among those factors which probably affect RIS’s pregnancy and occurrence, the precondition is accumulated elastic strain energy in a seismogenic zone having reached critical state. the principal internal controlling factors are features of fault permeability structure and permeability stability of rock-mass in the reservoir area, and the change scope of water level is the importantly external condition which can directly influence RIS. When the seismic pregnant process having reached critical state, it is the interaction between inducing factors and tectonic dynamic factors that impells the process of RIS’s pregnancy and occurrence.The study has also indicated that because of differences in tectonic stress environment, seismogenic structure scale, and aeolotropy of rock-mass, the critical states of seismogenic structure are different too. According to that, the objective phenomenon that there is relatively high occurrence probability of RIS in a seismic zone of weak-middle activity can be reasonably interpreted.
ⅲ. There is a mutually stimulative and restrictive relationship between pore presses diffusion and RIS. The microseisms in the initial period of induced seismic sequence were not only a response to the reservoir storage, but also one kind of feedback factor, and created conditions for the large-scale release of elastic strain energy.
(6) Possible correlation between the Zipingpu reservoir storge impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake
The possible correlation between the Zipingpu reservoir storge impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake has been discussed tentatively based on the analysis, including the lower limit depth of ground surface water’s seepage, the P wave velocity abnormlies in the reservoir area and its vicinities after storage impounding, the differences in characteristics of seismic sequence between the Wenchuan M8.0 earhquake and representative RIS,ΔCFS near the epicenter on the assumption of elastic media condition, and so on. The analysis suggests that there is no direct evidence to prove the obvious relationship between the Zipingpu reservoir storage impounding and the“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake. The nuclear region of this great shock located in the brittle-ductile transition zone about 19 km under the ground, and scientists have realized little about the changes of fault permeability structure, state and transportation characteristics of the liquid at that depth. Therefore, a more comprehensive understanding about this relationship will rely on unprecedented progress in the above research fields.
2. Main progresses of this study
(1) Multi-disciplinary methods have been synthesized, such as geology, seismology, mechanics, and so on, and integral and forward-looking studying characteristics has also been incarnated. The thesis will provide a typical model for RIS synthetic study in the future.
(2) It has been discovered that the small earthquakes mainly occurred in the carbonate rock-masses with high brittle lithology and low infiltration stability, but there were little earthquakes occurred in the Triassic Xujiahe sand mudstone and coal measure strata which are relatively weak in lithology and high in infiltration stability. RIS’s depending on permeable stability of rock-mass has been further proved.
(3) The incidence of RIS is not only in connection with pre-existing large-scale faults under the reservoir area, but also controlled by the combination form of faults and their surrounding rock-mass, rock-mass composition, and heterogeneity of mechanical properties and penetrating quality reflected by the lithologic changes. Based on this understanding, a mathematical model for RIS is divided into two levels in this paper, the combination of two forms of modeling approach provides a comparatively macro-mechanical framework for RIS quantitative study. An attempt is made to solve the difficult problem of dealing with complex media conditions in quantitative studies.
(4) Based on the coupling theory of solid deformation and liquid seepage and fault stability theory, the dynamic changes of elastic additional stress field, effective additional stress field, pore pressure and fault stability have been calculated and analyzed. Major induced factors and the possibile causes for RIS ocuuring after the Zipingpu resevior impounding have been discovered. It has been approved futher that In dominant compressional tectonic stress environment, the result of reservoir water body loading tends to make the faults more stable, while the effect of additional water pressure diffusion tends to promote instability of the faults. It is the dynamic process, in which two contradiction sides restrict and balance each other, that controls the orientation of Coulomb failure stress changes, and determines the characteristics of RIS evolution.
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