政府节能政策绩效的动态综合评价方法及应用
|
摘要
论文着力于定量测算和定性分析的方法来评价节能政策实施的效果。将政策绩效评价的视野向前后两个方向的深度拓展,研究了我国节能政策体系以及与国外节能政策体系的差别,提出了国外节能政策对我国节能政策的作用与启示;将我国20多年的节能法规政策分为综合、资源、煤炭、油气、电力、能源效率和重点节能领域、环境安全与健康七大部分来分析我国节能政策的历史演变。建立动态不确定性评价模型和灰色预测理论模型,对我国标志性节能政策和重点区域节能情况进行预测,并根据预测结果对项目进行科学的评价和分析。
构建了节能政策的能源节约贡献度测算模型,分别测算了《节能中长期规划》、《节能法》、《进一步加强节约能源工作的建议》等三部重要节能政策法规的能源节约贡献度。建立了新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对我国高耗能行业总体节能效果进行了测算,并对煤炭开采和洗选业、石油加工工业等具体高耗能行业,我国重点区域实施节能政策的效果,长三角地区实施节能政策,东北三省实施节能政策等方面进行了政策效果测算,分别提出了政策建议。
提出了基于定量判断和定性分析为框架的政府节能政策绩效综合评价框架体系,分别建立了基于模糊判断的政府节能政策绩效评价方法和基于模糊判断的政府节能政策绩效群体综合评价方法,以对政府节能政策的实施效果进行综合评价。研究了模糊判断矩阵一致性的若干问题,包含次序一致性和满意一致性两方面,在满意一致性研究方面,提出度量满意一致性程度的指标,并提出改善模糊判断矩阵满意一致性的方法。基于随机确定性判断矩阵,建立求解权重问题的模型。基于目标规划方法和模糊数学的方法提出了专家模糊判断集结的思路,定义了专家群和个体判断的一致性程度指标,并对一致性程度较差的专家判断提出了修改建议。
研究我国节能政策实施的综合效果,建立了我国节能政策绩效评价指标体系,通过专家调查法和信息熵相结合的方法确定相关指标的权重,既考虑到指标的实际重要性,又考虑到指标数值的有效性,对我国节能政策绩效水平进行了评价。应用灰色预测理论的思想,对潜在发展态势的政府节能政策绩效进行了动态评价,并预测了未来5年的节能政策绩效水平。
基于灰色关联理论的思想,将政府节能政策(措施)综合绩效值作为灰色关联分析的基准指标,研究节能政策绩效指标值关于节能政策绩效水平高峰低谷的同步与滞后关系,对节能政策绩效水平的时差性进行了研究。通过对中国节能政策绩效水平进行研究,发现节能政策存在一定的失效性,研究了我国节能政策失效性情况,分析了节能政策失效性的原因,总结了政府节能政策存在的经验和不足,并提出了政府节能政策的若干对策和建议。
The thesis puts forth effort on calculating the method with qualitative analysis quantitatively to appraise the result that is implemented of energy-conserving policy. Develop the policy appraisal field of vision to the around two directions depth, studied the differences between the policy of our country energy conservation system and the overseas energy conservation policy system. Propose the enlightenment of energy conservation policy to our country. Divide our country energy conservation policy into the synthesis, the resources, the coal, the oil gas, the electric power, the energy efficiency and the key energy conservation domain, the environment security and the health seven major parts to analyze the historical evolution of our country conservation energy policy.
Construct the calculation model of the energy conservation policy about saving contribution. Establish calculation models of "The Energy conservation Long-term Plan", "Energy conservation Law" and "Suggestion of Further Strengthen to Save Energy ".Then these models carried on surveys.Establish the model of Metabolism GM (1,1) to calculate the total energy-saving effect of high-energy-consuming industries in China. Moreover calculate high energy-consuming industries such as coal mining and dressing industry, oil processing industry and also calculate energy-saving effect of key regions where carried on policies. Finally, calculate energy-saving effect of The Yangtze River Delta region and the three northeast provinces.
Have proposed it on the basis of judging quantitatively and qualitative analysis is government energy-conserving policy performance comprehensive appraisal frame systems of the frame, have set up on the basis of the fuzzy government energy-conserving policy performance appraisal method to judge separately and on the basis of colony's comprehensive appraisal method of the energy-conserving policy performance of fuzzy government that judge, by carrying on comprehensive appraisal to the implementing effect of government's energy-conserving policy. Used to the method of the theory of ideological gray forecast to evaluate the development trend of the potential energy saving policy and forecast performance of energy-saving policy level the next five years.
On the basis of the thought of the gray related theory, regard government's energy-conserving policy (measure) comprehensive performance value as the basic index of gray related analysis, study the energy-conserving policy going ahead of the rest, relation with lagging behind of synchronism about the performance horizontal peak low ebb of energy-conserving policy of performance index value, have carried on research to the time difference of levels of energy-conserving policy performance. Through carry on research to China energy-conserving policy performance level, find energy-conserving policy store sure person who lose efficiency in, have study the energy-conserving policy losing efficiency situation of our country, has analyzed the reason of losing efficiency the energy-conserving policy, have summarize experience and deficiency that government's energy-conserving policy exists, has proposed several countermeasures and suggestions of government's energy-conserving policy.
构建了节能政策的能源节约贡献度测算模型,分别测算了《节能中长期规划》、《节能法》、《进一步加强节约能源工作的建议》等三部重要节能政策法规的能源节约贡献度。建立了新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对我国高耗能行业总体节能效果进行了测算,并对煤炭开采和洗选业、石油加工工业等具体高耗能行业,我国重点区域实施节能政策的效果,长三角地区实施节能政策,东北三省实施节能政策等方面进行了政策效果测算,分别提出了政策建议。
提出了基于定量判断和定性分析为框架的政府节能政策绩效综合评价框架体系,分别建立了基于模糊判断的政府节能政策绩效评价方法和基于模糊判断的政府节能政策绩效群体综合评价方法,以对政府节能政策的实施效果进行综合评价。研究了模糊判断矩阵一致性的若干问题,包含次序一致性和满意一致性两方面,在满意一致性研究方面,提出度量满意一致性程度的指标,并提出改善模糊判断矩阵满意一致性的方法。基于随机确定性判断矩阵,建立求解权重问题的模型。基于目标规划方法和模糊数学的方法提出了专家模糊判断集结的思路,定义了专家群和个体判断的一致性程度指标,并对一致性程度较差的专家判断提出了修改建议。
研究我国节能政策实施的综合效果,建立了我国节能政策绩效评价指标体系,通过专家调查法和信息熵相结合的方法确定相关指标的权重,既考虑到指标的实际重要性,又考虑到指标数值的有效性,对我国节能政策绩效水平进行了评价。应用灰色预测理论的思想,对潜在发展态势的政府节能政策绩效进行了动态评价,并预测了未来5年的节能政策绩效水平。
基于灰色关联理论的思想,将政府节能政策(措施)综合绩效值作为灰色关联分析的基准指标,研究节能政策绩效指标值关于节能政策绩效水平高峰低谷的同步与滞后关系,对节能政策绩效水平的时差性进行了研究。通过对中国节能政策绩效水平进行研究,发现节能政策存在一定的失效性,研究了我国节能政策失效性情况,分析了节能政策失效性的原因,总结了政府节能政策存在的经验和不足,并提出了政府节能政策的若干对策和建议。
The thesis puts forth effort on calculating the method with qualitative analysis quantitatively to appraise the result that is implemented of energy-conserving policy. Develop the policy appraisal field of vision to the around two directions depth, studied the differences between the policy of our country energy conservation system and the overseas energy conservation policy system. Propose the enlightenment of energy conservation policy to our country. Divide our country energy conservation policy into the synthesis, the resources, the coal, the oil gas, the electric power, the energy efficiency and the key energy conservation domain, the environment security and the health seven major parts to analyze the historical evolution of our country conservation energy policy.
Construct the calculation model of the energy conservation policy about saving contribution. Establish calculation models of "The Energy conservation Long-term Plan", "Energy conservation Law" and "Suggestion of Further Strengthen to Save Energy ".Then these models carried on surveys.Establish the model of Metabolism GM (1,1) to calculate the total energy-saving effect of high-energy-consuming industries in China. Moreover calculate high energy-consuming industries such as coal mining and dressing industry, oil processing industry and also calculate energy-saving effect of key regions where carried on policies. Finally, calculate energy-saving effect of The Yangtze River Delta region and the three northeast provinces.
Have proposed it on the basis of judging quantitatively and qualitative analysis is government energy-conserving policy performance comprehensive appraisal frame systems of the frame, have set up on the basis of the fuzzy government energy-conserving policy performance appraisal method to judge separately and on the basis of colony's comprehensive appraisal method of the energy-conserving policy performance of fuzzy government that judge, by carrying on comprehensive appraisal to the implementing effect of government's energy-conserving policy. Used to the method of the theory of ideological gray forecast to evaluate the development trend of the potential energy saving policy and forecast performance of energy-saving policy level the next five years.
On the basis of the thought of the gray related theory, regard government's energy-conserving policy (measure) comprehensive performance value as the basic index of gray related analysis, study the energy-conserving policy going ahead of the rest, relation with lagging behind of synchronism about the performance horizontal peak low ebb of energy-conserving policy of performance index value, have carried on research to the time difference of levels of energy-conserving policy performance. Through carry on research to China energy-conserving policy performance level, find energy-conserving policy store sure person who lose efficiency in, have study the energy-conserving policy losing efficiency situation of our country, has analyzed the reason of losing efficiency the energy-conserving policy, have summarize experience and deficiency that government's energy-conserving policy exists, has proposed several countermeasures and suggestions of government's energy-conserving policy.
引文
[1]程默,陈永春,略论我国能源节约利用战略,西安石油学院学报(社会科学版),2003年,12卷,03期:27-31。
[2]赵欣,朱跃中,当前我国节能形势的判断及节能工作的回顾评价,山西能源与节能,2001年,01期:20-23。
[3]陈甲斌,我国现行节能政策及相关产业发展前景,福建能源开发与节约,2003年,02期:5-6。
[4]房维中,我国能源和环境的严峻形势,我国电力企业管理,2006年,04期:28-30。
[5]张胤鸿,外国节能措施及其对我国的启示,科学决策,2005年,09期:23-24。
[6]宣能啸,我国能效问题分析,我国能源,2004年,26卷,09期:4-7。
[7]王学杰,我国政策评价工作的特点及改进,我国行政管理,1999年,12期:62-64。
[8]郁聪,康艳兵,国内外节能政策的回顾及强化我国节能政策的建议,我国能源,2003年,25卷,10期:4-14。
[9]我国能源研究会,关于推进我国节能工作的专家建议,广西节能,1999年,01期:35-36。
[10]傅定法,周伟强,节能政策转型的探讨,能源工程,2001年,04期:55-57。
[11]巩曜平,节能:国家能源发展的重头政策,我国科技投资,2006年,09期:21-23。
[12]陈甲斌,我国现行节能政策述评,我国能源,2003年,03期:28-30。
[13]易安,节能与新能源政策解读,我国创业投资与高科技,2005年,09期:17-19。
[14]李云香,创建节约型社会是落实科学发展观的重要保障,四川省社会主义学院学报,2006年,01期:58-59。
[15]方烨,李圆,六大措施建立节约型社会,财经界,2005年,08期:80-81。
[16]马凯,大力推进节能工作努力建设节能型社会,电力需求侧管理,2003年,05卷,06期:1-2。
[17]徐文红,王冬利,以政府机构节能推动资源节约型社会建设,电力需求侧管理,2006年,08卷,02期:6-8。
[18]徐焕东,政府采购在环保与节能中的功能及方式选择,环境保护,2005年,08期:64-67。
[19]王庆一,市场经济国家的节能激励政策措施,北京节能,2000年,03期:2-7。
[20]渠时远,市场经济体制下的节能对策,我国能源,1999年,01期:25-27。
[21]丁峰,我国能源“十一五”规划取向建议,我国矿业,2005年,14卷,10期:8-10。
[22]张正敏,王革华,我国可再生能源发展战略与政策研究,经济研究参考,2004年,84期:26-32
[23]“我国能源发展战略与政策研究报告”课题组,我国能源发展战略与政策研究报告(上),经济研究参考,2004年,83期:3-51。
[24]刘满平,我国产业结构调整与能源协调发展,宏观经济管理,2006年,02期:24-26。
[25]戴坚,当前开展节能工作的难点和今后发展的方向,冶金能源,2000年,19卷,05期:3-5。
[26]绩效评价的理论与方法-在科研机构的实践,北京,科学技术文献出版社,1992。
[27]政策科学,北京,我国人民大学出版社,1998。
[28]公共政策评估,北京,我国人民出版社,2003。
[29] Xu Ze-shui,Da Qing-li,A least deviation method to obtain a priority vector of a fuzzy preference relation,European Journal of Operational Research,2005,164(1):206-216。
[30] Fan Zhi-Ping,Hu Guo-Fen,Xiao Si-Han,A method for multiple attribute decision-making with the fuzzy preference relation on alternatives ,Computers & Industrial Engineering,2004,46(2):321–327。
[31] Wang Ying-Ming,Parkand C,Multiple attribute decision-making based on fuzzy preference information on alternatives: Ranking and weighting,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2005,153(3):331–346。
[32]樊治平,姜艳萍,模糊判断矩阵排序方法研究的综述,系统工程,2001,19(5):12-18。
[33] Chiclana F,Herrera F,Viedma E,A note on the internal consistency of various Preference representations,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,131(1):75-78。
[34] Luis J,Luis C,Individual-valued preferences and their aggregation: consistency analysis in a real case ,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2005,151(2):269–284。
[35] Switalski Z,Transitivity of fuzzy preference relations- an empirical study ,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2001,118(3:503-508。
[36] Herrera E,Herrera F,Chiclana F,Some issues on consistency of fuzzy preference relations,European Journal of Operational research,2004,154(1):98-109。
[37]姜艳萍,基于模糊互补判断矩阵的决策理论与方法研究,东北大学博士论文,2002,24-35。
[38]樊治平,姜艳萍,互补判断矩阵一致性改进方法,东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(1):98-101。
[39]姜艳萍,樊治平,一种校正模糊判断矩阵一致性的新方法,模糊系统与数学,2002,16(2):74-78。
[40]宋光兴,杨得礼,模糊判断矩阵的一致性检验及一致性改进方法,系统工程,2003,21(1):110-116。
[41]马维野,一种检验判断矩阵次序一致性的实用方法,系统工程理论与实践,1996,(11):103-105。
[42] Kwiesielewicz M,Uden E. Inconsistent and contradictory judgments in pairwise comparison method in the AHP ,Computers & Operations Research,2004,31(5):713-719。
[43] Saaty T L,Decision making with the AHP: why is the principal eigenvector necessary [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2003,145(1):85-91
[44] Tam M C, Tummala V M. An application of the AHP in vendor selection of atelecommunications system [J].Omega,2001,29(2):171-182
[45]肖四汉,樊治平,王梦光,FUZZY判断矩阵的一致性分析[J],系统工程学报,2001,16(1):142-145
[46]徐泽水,不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2004
[47]徐泽水,模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J],系统工程学报,2001,16(4):311-314
[48] Buckley J,Feuring T,Hayashi Y, Fuzzy hierarchical analysis revisited [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2001,129(1):48-64.
[49] Mikhailov L, Deriving priorities from fuzzy pairwise comparison judgments [J], Fuzzy sets and systems,2003,134(3):365-385
[50] Zhu Jian-jun, Liu Shi-xin, Wang Meng-guang, Integration of Weights Model of Interval Numbers Comparison Matrix [J], Acta Automatica Sinica, 2005,31(3): 434-439
[51]徐泽水,基于可能度和误差分析的区间数互补矩阵排序法[J],解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版)2003,4(2):96-98
[52]徐泽水,区间数互补判断矩阵排序的一种实用方法[J],运筹与管理,2001,10(3):16-19
[53]魏毅强,刘进生,王绪拄,不确定型AHP中判断矩阵的一致性概念及权重[J],系统工程理论与实践,1994,(4):16-22
[54]姚敏,黄燕君,模糊决策方法研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,1999,11:61-64
[55] Leung L,Cao D, On consistency and ranking of alternatives in fuzzy AHP [J],European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):102-113.
[56] Mikhailov L,Deriving priorities from fuzzy pariwise comparison judgements[J],Fuzzy sets and syste365-385ms,2003,134:
[57] Mikhailov L,A fuzzy approach to deriving priorites from interval pairwise comparison judgements[J],European journal of operational research,2004,159:687-704
[58]李炳军,刘思峰,一种基于区间数判断矩阵的群决策新方法[J],中国管理科学,2004,12(6):109-112
[59] Cheng C,Group opinion aggregation based on a grading process:a method for constructiong triangular fuzzy numbers[J],An international journal computers & mathematics with application,2004,48:1619-1632
[60] Wang Ying-Ming, Yang Jian-Bo, Xu Dong-Ling, A two-stage logarithmic goal programming method for generating weights from interval comparison matrices [J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2005,152(3): 475-498
[61]吴江,群组区间数互补判断矩阵偏好信息的一种集结方法[J],系统工程理论方法与应用,2004,13(6):500-503
[62]王欣荣,樊治平,一种具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策方法[J],东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(2):178-181
[63]徐泽水,一种不确定型OWA算子及其在群决策中的应用[J],东南大学学报(自然科学版),2002,32(1):147-150
[64] Herrera E, Herrera F, Chiclana F, Some issues on consistency of fuzzy preference relations[J],European Journal of Operational research,2004,154(1):98-109
[65]陈岩,樊治平,基于语言判断矩阵的群决策逆判问题研究[J],系统工程学报,2005,20(2):211-215
[66]刘万里,关于AHP中逆判问题的研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2001,(4):133-136
[67] Weiigen,Anderss.S,Time series analysis and Perdietion using gated experts with application to energy demand forecasts [J],APPlied Artifieial Inetlligenee, 1996(11-12): 583-624,
[68] Jeyaraj,K.,Paranjothi,S.R,Short-tem laod forecasting using time series methods [J],joumal of theInstiution of Ellgineers Electrical Engineeing Division,1994(8):50-52
[69] Ina D.McAvinehey,Anderas Ynnaopoulos Stationariyt,structural change and sPecification in a demand system: the case of energy. Enegry Economics 25(2003),65~92
[70] Mc Mensmin,J.S,Monofrte,F.A.Short term energy forecasting with neural ne-rwoks [J],Enegy Jomual,1998(4):43~62.
[71] Soersen,bent.Non-linear modeling of integrated supply and demand sysetms[J]. Intemationl Journal of Global Energ yIssues,1999(l):131一137.
[72] Shiying Dong,Enegry demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach[J],Energy Sources,2000(7):443-451.
[73] Bnejmain Warr,Robert Ayres,REXS:A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth[J] Structural Change and Eeonomic Dynmaies,2005.
[74]魏翠萍,李继乾,韩丽丽,不确定型AHP中残缺区间数判断矩阵的性质及排序方法[J],曲阜师范大学学报,1999,25(3):17-20。
[75] Nishizawa K, A method to find elements of cycles in an incomplete directed graph and its applications-binary AHP and Petri nets [J], Computers Math Applic,1997,33(9):33-46.
[76]胡培,不完全判断矩阵的决策方法[J],西南交通大学学报,1995,30(5):573-578。
[77]赵卫东,陈国华,基于变精度粗集的判断矩阵构造方法[J],中国管理科学,2002,10(1):94-97。
[78]覃菊莹.灰色层次分析法-GAHP[D],广西:广西大学硕士学位论文,2002。
[79] Malcolm B, DS/AHP method:A mathematical analysis,including an understanding of uncertainty,European Journal of Operational Research,2002,140(1):148-164.
[80] Malcolm B,Bruce C,Peter M, The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence:an alternative approach to multicriteria decision modelling,Omega,2000,28(1):37-50.
[81]杨萍,刘卫东,基于证据理论的群决策层次评价方法研究[J],系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(2):42-44。
[82]王应明,判断矩阵排序方法综述[J],决策与决策支持系统,1995,5(3):101-114。
[83]刘思峰、党耀国、方志耕,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],北京,科学出版社,2004。
[84] Lipovetsky S,Conklin M, Robust estimation of priorities in the AHP[J],European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(1):110-122.
[85] Saaty T, Decision making with the AHP:Why is the principal eigenvector necessary [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2003,145(1):85–91.
[86] Saaty T, Ranking by eigenvector versus other methods in the analytic hierarchy process [J] ,Appl,math,11(4):121-125.
[87]魏翠萍,李荣生,章志敏,层次分析法正互反矩阵灵敏度的Hadamard乘积分析法,系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):49-53。
[88] Xu Z,On consistency of the weighted geometric mean complex Judgement matrix in AHP [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2000,126(3):683-687.
[89]姜艳萍,樊治平,AHP中判断矩阵排序的灵敏度分析[J],运筹与管理,2001,10(3):1-5。
[90] Hurley W,The analytic hierarchy process:a note on an approach to sensitivity which preserves rank order[J],Computers & Operations Research ,2001,28(2):185-188.
[91] Andras F,Rozsa P, Data perturbations of matrices of pairwise comparisons[J],Annals of Operations Research,2001,101:401-425.
[92] Obata T,Shiraishi S, Assessment for an incomplete comparison matrix and improvement of an inconsistent comparison:computational experiments [C],Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process , http ://www3.toyama-u.ac.jp/~shira/isahp.pdf,1999.
[93] Triantaphyllou E,Sanchez A,A sensitivity analysis approach for some deterministic multi-criteria decision making methods [J],Decision Sciences,1997,28(1):151-187.
[94] Madu C,Kuei C, Stability analyses of group decision making [J],Computers and Industrial Engineering,1995,28(4):881-892.
[95] Finan J,Hurley W, Transitive calibration of the AHP verbal scale [J],European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112(2):367-372.
[96] Yoon K, The propagation of errors in multiple-attribute decision analysis:a practical approach [J],Journal of the Operational Research Society,1989,40(7):681-686.
[97]樊治平,张全,不确定性多属性决策的一种线性规划方法[J],东北大学学报(自然科学版),1998,19(4):419-421。
[98]高峰记,不完全信息下对方案有偏好的多指标决策[J],系统工程理论与实践,2000,20(4):94-97。
[99] Shirland L,Jesse R,Thompsom R, Determining attribute weights using mathematical programming[J],Omega,2003,31(6):423-437.
[100] Ngai E, Selection of web sites for online advertising using the AHP [J], Information& Management,2002,40(4):233-242.
[101] Mikhailov L,Group prioritization in the AHP by fuzzy preference programming method [J],Computers & Operational Research,2004,31(2):293-301.
[102]王宗军,综合评价的方法、问题及其研究趋势[J],管理科学学报,1998,1(1):73-79。
[103]徐泽水,部分权重信息下对方案有偏好的多属性决策法[J],控制与决策,2004,19(1):85-88。
[104] Fan Z,Ma J,Zhang Q, An approach to multiple attribute decision making based on fuzzy preference information on alternatives[J],Fuzzy sets and systems,2002,131(1):101-106.
[105] Ma J,Fan Z,Huang L,H. A subjective and objective integrated approach to determine attributes weights [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112 (2):397-404.
[106] Masood A, A combined AHP-GP model for quality control systems [J], International Journal of Production Economics,2001,72(1):27-40.
[107] Ghodsypour S,Brien C, A decision support system for supplier selection using an integrated analytic hierarchy process and linear programming [J], International Journal of Production Economics,1998,56-57:199-212.
[108] Korpela J, Kylaheiko K, Lehmusvaara A,et al, An analytic approach to production capacity allocation and supply chain design [J], International Journal of Production Economics,2002,78(2):187-195.
[109] Jung H,Choi B, Optimization models for quality and cost of modular software systems [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112(3):613-619.
[110] Forman E,Gass S, THE analytic hierarchy process-an exposition[J],Operations Research,2001,49(4):469-486.
[111]吴祈宗,李有文,层次分析法中矩阵的判断一致性研究[J],北京理工大学学报,1999,19(4):502-505。
[112]马维野,一种检验判断矩阵次序一致性的实用方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,1996,(11):103-105。
[113]韩光文,韩松,差异判断层次分析法[J],华中理工大学学报,1997,25(8):1-4。
[114] Kwiesielewicz M,Uden E, Inconsistent and contradictory judgments in pairwise comparison method in the AHP[J],Computers & Operations Research,2004,31(5):713-719.
[115] Karapetrovic S,Rosenbloom E, A quality control approach to consistency paradoxes in AHP[J],European Journal of Operational Research,1999,119(3):704-718.
[116] Finan J,Hurley W, A note on a method to ensure rank-order consistency in the Analytic Hierarchy Process [J], Int.Trans.Opl Res,1996,3(1):99-103.
[117]樊治平,肖四汉,基于自然语言符号表示的比较矩阵的一致性及排序[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(5):87-91。
[118]肖四汉,具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策理论与方法研究[D],沈阳:东北大学博士学位论文,2001。
[119] Finan J,Hurley W,Analytic hierarchy process:Does adjusting a pair wise comparison matrix to improve the consistency ratio help? [J] ,Computers & Operations Research,1997,24(8):749-755.
[120] Apostolou B, Note on Consistency Ratio:A Reply [J],Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2002,35 (9-10):1081-1083.
[121] Aguaron J,Moreno J, Local stability intervals in the analytic hierarchy process [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2000,125(1):113-132.
[122] Chen S, Evaluating weapon systems using fuzzy arithmetic operations [J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1996,77(3):265-276.
[123]姚敏,黄燕君,模糊决策方法研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,1999,19(11):61-64。
[2]赵欣,朱跃中,当前我国节能形势的判断及节能工作的回顾评价,山西能源与节能,2001年,01期:20-23。
[3]陈甲斌,我国现行节能政策及相关产业发展前景,福建能源开发与节约,2003年,02期:5-6。
[4]房维中,我国能源和环境的严峻形势,我国电力企业管理,2006年,04期:28-30。
[5]张胤鸿,外国节能措施及其对我国的启示,科学决策,2005年,09期:23-24。
[6]宣能啸,我国能效问题分析,我国能源,2004年,26卷,09期:4-7。
[7]王学杰,我国政策评价工作的特点及改进,我国行政管理,1999年,12期:62-64。
[8]郁聪,康艳兵,国内外节能政策的回顾及强化我国节能政策的建议,我国能源,2003年,25卷,10期:4-14。
[9]我国能源研究会,关于推进我国节能工作的专家建议,广西节能,1999年,01期:35-36。
[10]傅定法,周伟强,节能政策转型的探讨,能源工程,2001年,04期:55-57。
[11]巩曜平,节能:国家能源发展的重头政策,我国科技投资,2006年,09期:21-23。
[12]陈甲斌,我国现行节能政策述评,我国能源,2003年,03期:28-30。
[13]易安,节能与新能源政策解读,我国创业投资与高科技,2005年,09期:17-19。
[14]李云香,创建节约型社会是落实科学发展观的重要保障,四川省社会主义学院学报,2006年,01期:58-59。
[15]方烨,李圆,六大措施建立节约型社会,财经界,2005年,08期:80-81。
[16]马凯,大力推进节能工作努力建设节能型社会,电力需求侧管理,2003年,05卷,06期:1-2。
[17]徐文红,王冬利,以政府机构节能推动资源节约型社会建设,电力需求侧管理,2006年,08卷,02期:6-8。
[18]徐焕东,政府采购在环保与节能中的功能及方式选择,环境保护,2005年,08期:64-67。
[19]王庆一,市场经济国家的节能激励政策措施,北京节能,2000年,03期:2-7。
[20]渠时远,市场经济体制下的节能对策,我国能源,1999年,01期:25-27。
[21]丁峰,我国能源“十一五”规划取向建议,我国矿业,2005年,14卷,10期:8-10。
[22]张正敏,王革华,我国可再生能源发展战略与政策研究,经济研究参考,2004年,84期:26-32
[23]“我国能源发展战略与政策研究报告”课题组,我国能源发展战略与政策研究报告(上),经济研究参考,2004年,83期:3-51。
[24]刘满平,我国产业结构调整与能源协调发展,宏观经济管理,2006年,02期:24-26。
[25]戴坚,当前开展节能工作的难点和今后发展的方向,冶金能源,2000年,19卷,05期:3-5。
[26]绩效评价的理论与方法-在科研机构的实践,北京,科学技术文献出版社,1992。
[27]政策科学,北京,我国人民大学出版社,1998。
[28]公共政策评估,北京,我国人民出版社,2003。
[29] Xu Ze-shui,Da Qing-li,A least deviation method to obtain a priority vector of a fuzzy preference relation,European Journal of Operational Research,2005,164(1):206-216。
[30] Fan Zhi-Ping,Hu Guo-Fen,Xiao Si-Han,A method for multiple attribute decision-making with the fuzzy preference relation on alternatives ,Computers & Industrial Engineering,2004,46(2):321–327。
[31] Wang Ying-Ming,Parkand C,Multiple attribute decision-making based on fuzzy preference information on alternatives: Ranking and weighting,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2005,153(3):331–346。
[32]樊治平,姜艳萍,模糊判断矩阵排序方法研究的综述,系统工程,2001,19(5):12-18。
[33] Chiclana F,Herrera F,Viedma E,A note on the internal consistency of various Preference representations,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,131(1):75-78。
[34] Luis J,Luis C,Individual-valued preferences and their aggregation: consistency analysis in a real case ,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2005,151(2):269–284。
[35] Switalski Z,Transitivity of fuzzy preference relations- an empirical study ,Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2001,118(3:503-508。
[36] Herrera E,Herrera F,Chiclana F,Some issues on consistency of fuzzy preference relations,European Journal of Operational research,2004,154(1):98-109。
[37]姜艳萍,基于模糊互补判断矩阵的决策理论与方法研究,东北大学博士论文,2002,24-35。
[38]樊治平,姜艳萍,互补判断矩阵一致性改进方法,东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(1):98-101。
[39]姜艳萍,樊治平,一种校正模糊判断矩阵一致性的新方法,模糊系统与数学,2002,16(2):74-78。
[40]宋光兴,杨得礼,模糊判断矩阵的一致性检验及一致性改进方法,系统工程,2003,21(1):110-116。
[41]马维野,一种检验判断矩阵次序一致性的实用方法,系统工程理论与实践,1996,(11):103-105。
[42] Kwiesielewicz M,Uden E. Inconsistent and contradictory judgments in pairwise comparison method in the AHP ,Computers & Operations Research,2004,31(5):713-719。
[43] Saaty T L,Decision making with the AHP: why is the principal eigenvector necessary [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2003,145(1):85-91
[44] Tam M C, Tummala V M. An application of the AHP in vendor selection of atelecommunications system [J].Omega,2001,29(2):171-182
[45]肖四汉,樊治平,王梦光,FUZZY判断矩阵的一致性分析[J],系统工程学报,2001,16(1):142-145
[46]徐泽水,不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2004
[47]徐泽水,模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J],系统工程学报,2001,16(4):311-314
[48] Buckley J,Feuring T,Hayashi Y, Fuzzy hierarchical analysis revisited [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2001,129(1):48-64.
[49] Mikhailov L, Deriving priorities from fuzzy pairwise comparison judgments [J], Fuzzy sets and systems,2003,134(3):365-385
[50] Zhu Jian-jun, Liu Shi-xin, Wang Meng-guang, Integration of Weights Model of Interval Numbers Comparison Matrix [J], Acta Automatica Sinica, 2005,31(3): 434-439
[51]徐泽水,基于可能度和误差分析的区间数互补矩阵排序法[J],解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版)2003,4(2):96-98
[52]徐泽水,区间数互补判断矩阵排序的一种实用方法[J],运筹与管理,2001,10(3):16-19
[53]魏毅强,刘进生,王绪拄,不确定型AHP中判断矩阵的一致性概念及权重[J],系统工程理论与实践,1994,(4):16-22
[54]姚敏,黄燕君,模糊决策方法研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,1999,11:61-64
[55] Leung L,Cao D, On consistency and ranking of alternatives in fuzzy AHP [J],European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):102-113.
[56] Mikhailov L,Deriving priorities from fuzzy pariwise comparison judgements[J],Fuzzy sets and syste365-385ms,2003,134:
[57] Mikhailov L,A fuzzy approach to deriving priorites from interval pairwise comparison judgements[J],European journal of operational research,2004,159:687-704
[58]李炳军,刘思峰,一种基于区间数判断矩阵的群决策新方法[J],中国管理科学,2004,12(6):109-112
[59] Cheng C,Group opinion aggregation based on a grading process:a method for constructiong triangular fuzzy numbers[J],An international journal computers & mathematics with application,2004,48:1619-1632
[60] Wang Ying-Ming, Yang Jian-Bo, Xu Dong-Ling, A two-stage logarithmic goal programming method for generating weights from interval comparison matrices [J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2005,152(3): 475-498
[61]吴江,群组区间数互补判断矩阵偏好信息的一种集结方法[J],系统工程理论方法与应用,2004,13(6):500-503
[62]王欣荣,樊治平,一种具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策方法[J],东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(2):178-181
[63]徐泽水,一种不确定型OWA算子及其在群决策中的应用[J],东南大学学报(自然科学版),2002,32(1):147-150
[64] Herrera E, Herrera F, Chiclana F, Some issues on consistency of fuzzy preference relations[J],European Journal of Operational research,2004,154(1):98-109
[65]陈岩,樊治平,基于语言判断矩阵的群决策逆判问题研究[J],系统工程学报,2005,20(2):211-215
[66]刘万里,关于AHP中逆判问题的研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2001,(4):133-136
[67] Weiigen,Anderss.S,Time series analysis and Perdietion using gated experts with application to energy demand forecasts [J],APPlied Artifieial Inetlligenee, 1996(11-12): 583-624,
[68] Jeyaraj,K.,Paranjothi,S.R,Short-tem laod forecasting using time series methods [J],joumal of theInstiution of Ellgineers Electrical Engineeing Division,1994(8):50-52
[69] Ina D.McAvinehey,Anderas Ynnaopoulos Stationariyt,structural change and sPecification in a demand system: the case of energy. Enegry Economics 25(2003),65~92
[70] Mc Mensmin,J.S,Monofrte,F.A.Short term energy forecasting with neural ne-rwoks [J],Enegy Jomual,1998(4):43~62.
[71] Soersen,bent.Non-linear modeling of integrated supply and demand sysetms[J]. Intemationl Journal of Global Energ yIssues,1999(l):131一137.
[72] Shiying Dong,Enegry demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach[J],Energy Sources,2000(7):443-451.
[73] Bnejmain Warr,Robert Ayres,REXS:A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth[J] Structural Change and Eeonomic Dynmaies,2005.
[74]魏翠萍,李继乾,韩丽丽,不确定型AHP中残缺区间数判断矩阵的性质及排序方法[J],曲阜师范大学学报,1999,25(3):17-20。
[75] Nishizawa K, A method to find elements of cycles in an incomplete directed graph and its applications-binary AHP and Petri nets [J], Computers Math Applic,1997,33(9):33-46.
[76]胡培,不完全判断矩阵的决策方法[J],西南交通大学学报,1995,30(5):573-578。
[77]赵卫东,陈国华,基于变精度粗集的判断矩阵构造方法[J],中国管理科学,2002,10(1):94-97。
[78]覃菊莹.灰色层次分析法-GAHP[D],广西:广西大学硕士学位论文,2002。
[79] Malcolm B, DS/AHP method:A mathematical analysis,including an understanding of uncertainty,European Journal of Operational Research,2002,140(1):148-164.
[80] Malcolm B,Bruce C,Peter M, The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence:an alternative approach to multicriteria decision modelling,Omega,2000,28(1):37-50.
[81]杨萍,刘卫东,基于证据理论的群决策层次评价方法研究[J],系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(2):42-44。
[82]王应明,判断矩阵排序方法综述[J],决策与决策支持系统,1995,5(3):101-114。
[83]刘思峰、党耀国、方志耕,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],北京,科学出版社,2004。
[84] Lipovetsky S,Conklin M, Robust estimation of priorities in the AHP[J],European Journal of Operational Research,2002,137(1):110-122.
[85] Saaty T, Decision making with the AHP:Why is the principal eigenvector necessary [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2003,145(1):85–91.
[86] Saaty T, Ranking by eigenvector versus other methods in the analytic hierarchy process [J] ,Appl,math,11(4):121-125.
[87]魏翠萍,李荣生,章志敏,层次分析法正互反矩阵灵敏度的Hadamard乘积分析法,系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):49-53。
[88] Xu Z,On consistency of the weighted geometric mean complex Judgement matrix in AHP [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2000,126(3):683-687.
[89]姜艳萍,樊治平,AHP中判断矩阵排序的灵敏度分析[J],运筹与管理,2001,10(3):1-5。
[90] Hurley W,The analytic hierarchy process:a note on an approach to sensitivity which preserves rank order[J],Computers & Operations Research ,2001,28(2):185-188.
[91] Andras F,Rozsa P, Data perturbations of matrices of pairwise comparisons[J],Annals of Operations Research,2001,101:401-425.
[92] Obata T,Shiraishi S, Assessment for an incomplete comparison matrix and improvement of an inconsistent comparison:computational experiments [C],Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process , http ://www3.toyama-u.ac.jp/~shira/isahp.pdf,1999.
[93] Triantaphyllou E,Sanchez A,A sensitivity analysis approach for some deterministic multi-criteria decision making methods [J],Decision Sciences,1997,28(1):151-187.
[94] Madu C,Kuei C, Stability analyses of group decision making [J],Computers and Industrial Engineering,1995,28(4):881-892.
[95] Finan J,Hurley W, Transitive calibration of the AHP verbal scale [J],European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112(2):367-372.
[96] Yoon K, The propagation of errors in multiple-attribute decision analysis:a practical approach [J],Journal of the Operational Research Society,1989,40(7):681-686.
[97]樊治平,张全,不确定性多属性决策的一种线性规划方法[J],东北大学学报(自然科学版),1998,19(4):419-421。
[98]高峰记,不完全信息下对方案有偏好的多指标决策[J],系统工程理论与实践,2000,20(4):94-97。
[99] Shirland L,Jesse R,Thompsom R, Determining attribute weights using mathematical programming[J],Omega,2003,31(6):423-437.
[100] Ngai E, Selection of web sites for online advertising using the AHP [J], Information& Management,2002,40(4):233-242.
[101] Mikhailov L,Group prioritization in the AHP by fuzzy preference programming method [J],Computers & Operational Research,2004,31(2):293-301.
[102]王宗军,综合评价的方法、问题及其研究趋势[J],管理科学学报,1998,1(1):73-79。
[103]徐泽水,部分权重信息下对方案有偏好的多属性决策法[J],控制与决策,2004,19(1):85-88。
[104] Fan Z,Ma J,Zhang Q, An approach to multiple attribute decision making based on fuzzy preference information on alternatives[J],Fuzzy sets and systems,2002,131(1):101-106.
[105] Ma J,Fan Z,Huang L,H. A subjective and objective integrated approach to determine attributes weights [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112 (2):397-404.
[106] Masood A, A combined AHP-GP model for quality control systems [J], International Journal of Production Economics,2001,72(1):27-40.
[107] Ghodsypour S,Brien C, A decision support system for supplier selection using an integrated analytic hierarchy process and linear programming [J], International Journal of Production Economics,1998,56-57:199-212.
[108] Korpela J, Kylaheiko K, Lehmusvaara A,et al, An analytic approach to production capacity allocation and supply chain design [J], International Journal of Production Economics,2002,78(2):187-195.
[109] Jung H,Choi B, Optimization models for quality and cost of modular software systems [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1999,112(3):613-619.
[110] Forman E,Gass S, THE analytic hierarchy process-an exposition[J],Operations Research,2001,49(4):469-486.
[111]吴祈宗,李有文,层次分析法中矩阵的判断一致性研究[J],北京理工大学学报,1999,19(4):502-505。
[112]马维野,一种检验判断矩阵次序一致性的实用方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,1996,(11):103-105。
[113]韩光文,韩松,差异判断层次分析法[J],华中理工大学学报,1997,25(8):1-4。
[114] Kwiesielewicz M,Uden E, Inconsistent and contradictory judgments in pairwise comparison method in the AHP[J],Computers & Operations Research,2004,31(5):713-719.
[115] Karapetrovic S,Rosenbloom E, A quality control approach to consistency paradoxes in AHP[J],European Journal of Operational Research,1999,119(3):704-718.
[116] Finan J,Hurley W, A note on a method to ensure rank-order consistency in the Analytic Hierarchy Process [J], Int.Trans.Opl Res,1996,3(1):99-103.
[117]樊治平,肖四汉,基于自然语言符号表示的比较矩阵的一致性及排序[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(5):87-91。
[118]肖四汉,具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策理论与方法研究[D],沈阳:东北大学博士学位论文,2001。
[119] Finan J,Hurley W,Analytic hierarchy process:Does adjusting a pair wise comparison matrix to improve the consistency ratio help? [J] ,Computers & Operations Research,1997,24(8):749-755.
[120] Apostolou B, Note on Consistency Ratio:A Reply [J],Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2002,35 (9-10):1081-1083.
[121] Aguaron J,Moreno J, Local stability intervals in the analytic hierarchy process [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2000,125(1):113-132.
[122] Chen S, Evaluating weapon systems using fuzzy arithmetic operations [J], Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1996,77(3):265-276.
[123]姚敏,黄燕君,模糊决策方法研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,1999,19(11):61-64。