我国农村贫困、收入分配和反贫困政策研究
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摘要
在过去的30年里，中国农村扶贫工作取得了令世人瞩目的成就。如果按照官方贫困标准计算，农村贫困率从1978年的30．7％下降到2007年的1．6％；农村贫困人口数量从1978年的2．5亿下降到2007年的1479万。在如此短的时间里能使如此多的人口摆脱贫困，对于整个世界来说都是史无前例的。世界银行研究表明，如果没有中国的扶贫努力，世界贫困人口数量不会出现下降。不过，在中国改革开放进程中，收入分配和贫困的性质发生了根本性的变化。居多研究表明，中国农村的收入分配已经出现恶化，并且在严重影响扶贫进程。世界银行的最新研究报告表明，中国农村反贫困工作将变得更加困难和复杂。因此，研究农村贫困、收入分配和反贫困问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章主要从农村贫困和不平等测算、反贫困政策评价和减贫进程演进特征与趋势等方面展开分析。
文章第一部分从不同的视角测算农村贫困和不平等状况。文章采用七种不同的贫困线，三种不同的家庭等值算子对贫困和收入不平等变动进行洛伦茨曲线的洛伦茨占优分析、各种不平等指数的对比分析、贫困指标的变动分析与分解分析。结果发现，①无论是否考虑家庭规模经济效应，自20世纪80年代以来，洛伦茨曲线随时间向右下方移动，中国农村的收入不平等状况在恶化；②1980—2006年，高收入阶层和低收入阶层分配状况均处于大幅变动中，不平等程度波动幅度大于中等收入阶层，表明收入分配出现两极分化迹象；③贫困指数变动趋势不受贫困线和等价规模的影响。依据不同贫困线计算贫困指数，均表明绝对差距在缩小；高贫困线计算所得到的贫困指数值及其变动幅度均大于低贫困线；④贫困分解结果表明，1980年以来农村人均收入在增长，但收入不平等也在上升，而且收入增长带来的贫困减少不足以抵消不平等加剧所引起的贫困增加，即收入分配差距的扩大降低了增长在减少贫困方面的作用。
文章第二部分主要对我国农村反贫困政策进行了评价。本章在总结农村贫困特征的基础上，通过将我国农村反贫困政策划分为救济性扶贫阶段、开发式扶贫阶段、注重参与、内外兼顾扶贫政策阶段和整村推进、多元化扶贫阶段四个阶段，来重点分析农村反贫困政策演进的特征与原因。通过这些分析，我们认为下一步农村反贫困要做到“三个坚持”(即坚持开发式扶贫向社会保护式扶贫转变的方针；坚持解决温饱和巩固温饱同时推进；坚持让贫困人口直接受益)，抓好“三个重点”(即整村推进、培训促进劳动力转移、产业化扶贫)。
文章第三部分主要探讨了我国农村减贫进程的特征与发展趋势。文章首先在贫困分解的基础上，运用贫困弹性的动态特征，从理论和实证的角度探讨了经济增长和收入分配对贫困减少的影响。结果发现，①在经济发展过程中，人均收入水平越高，收入不平等引起的贫困效应越强；②收入不平等越严重的地区(或国家)，贫困对收入不平等的反映越迟钝；③我国农村反贫困性质发生改变的拐点大致出现在1998年。文章建议，今后农村反贫困战略的重点应从以促进收入增长的开发式扶贫向以改善收入分配为重点的社会保护式扶贫政策转变。并且，如果要实现快速的减贫目标，应当实施有利于穷人的经济发展政策。
文章最后一部分运用门槛面板数据模型实证研究了贸易自由化影响我国农村贫困的机制和关系特征。结果发现，贸易自由化主要从经济增长、就业与工资以及物价水平四种路径影响农村贫困。并且，贸易自由化和农村贫困之间存在一种非线性的倒U关系。其政策含义是，我国应继续扩大对外贸易的规模与层次，让广大农民，特别是低收入农民，充分享受改革开放成果，摆脱贫困困境。
文章的主要贡献有：①运用不同贫困和不平等指数，以及不同的贫困线标准测算农村贫困和不平等状况，来判断和认识农村贫困的广度、深度和强度，及其变化趋势。②细致测算了典型省区农村收入分布曲线及其演进特征，并探讨了各地区的经济发展模式。③构建了一个分析经济增长、收入分配和减贫进程之间关系的统一分析框架。
In the past 30 years, China's rural poverty alleviation has achieved great efforts. If calculated in accordance with the official poverty standard, rural poverty rate dropped from 30.7% in 1978 to 1.6% in 2007 and the number of rural poor dropped from 250,000,000 to 14,790,000. It is unprecedented for the whole world that so many people were out of poverty in such a short period of time. World Bank studies have shown that without China's poverty alleviation efforts, the world's poor population won't decline. However, in China's reform and opening process, income distribution and the nature of poverty have taken place fundamental changes. Most studies have shown that rural China's income distribution has worsened and seriously affect the poverty alleviation progress. The latest World Bank study shows that anti-poverty work in China's rural areas will become more difficult and complicated. Therefore, the study of rural poverty, income distribution and anti-poverty issue has significant theoretical and practical meaning. The paper mainly analyze from rural poverty and inequality measurement, evaluation of anti-poverty policies and the characteristics & trends of poverty alleviation processing.
The first part of the paper measured poverty and inequality in rural areas from different angles. The paper uses seven different poverty line and three different equivalent operator family poverty to perform Lorenz curve for Lorenz dominance analysis, a variety of inequality indices for comparative analysis, poverty indicator analysis and decomposition analysis on changes of poverty and income inequality. It was found that, 1 Whether or not to consider the family economies scale effect, with the Lorenz curve moving to the lower right corner rural China's income inequality has been worsening since the 80's in 20~(th) century. 2 In 1980 - 2006, allocation of the high-income group and low-income group is in dramatic changes and the fluctuations degree of inequality is intensified than middle-income group, that is, the polarization trend of income distribution is obvious. 3 The poverty line and equivalence scale has no impact of the changes in the direction of the poverty index. To calculate the poverty index according to different poverty line show that the absolute gap is narrowing; poverty index value from high poverty line and its fluctuation are larger than low-poverty line. There is no impact of family equivalent size in rural China. 4 Poverty decomposition analysis shows that average income in rural areas increased since 1980 but income inequality also increased. And the poverty reduction from income growth is not sufficient to offset the poverty increase from the inequality, that is, the expansion of income allocation gap reduces the effect of poverty alleviation from the growth.
The second part of the paper focus on the evaluation of anti-poverty policies in rural areas of China. On the basis of summarizing the characteristics of rural poverty, this chapter mainly analyze the characteristics and reasons of rural anti-poverty policies processing by dividing the anti-poverty policies in rural areas of China into four phases as relief of poverty alleviation policies, development of poverty alleviation stage, focus participation and poverty alleviation for both inside & outside policies, diversification of poverty alleviation. Through these analysis, we believe that next step of rural anti-poverty should be the "three adhere to" (that is adhering to solving adequate food & clothing and stabling this at the same time; insisting that directly benefit the poor), doing a good job of "three keys" (that is, promotion of the whole village, training to enhance transfer of the labor force and the industrialized poverty alleviation).
The third part of the paper focus on the characteristics and development trend of China's rural poverty reduction process. First on the basis of poverty decomposition, the paper uses the dynamic characteristics of poverty flexibility to discuss how income growth and allocation impact the poverty alleviation from a theoretical and empirical point of view. It was found that, 1 in the economic development, the higher the level of average income the stronger the poverty effect caused by income inequality. 2 The more serious the income inequality the slower of poverty reflection from income inequality. 3 1998 is the inflection point of changing nature of anti-poverty in rural China. The paper recommends that in future the focus of anti-poverty policies in rural areas should change from the development style which to promote income growth to the social protection style which to improve income distribution. In addition, in order to rapidly achieve poverty alleviation goal, we should implement pro-poor economic development policies.
The final part of the paper use the threshold panel data model to empirically study the mechanism and relationship characteristics of how trade liberalization impact China's rural poverty. It was found that trade liberalization mainly impact rural poverty from the economic growth, employment, wages and price level channels. In addition, there is a non-linear inverted U relationship between trade liberalization and the urban poverty. Its policy implications is that our country should continue to expand the scale and level of foreign trade, so that the majority of people can fully enjoy the outcome of the reform and opening then are out of poverty.
The main contribution of the paper are: 1 the use of different indices of poverty and inequality, as well as the different standards of measurement of the poverty line in rural poverty and inequality, to determine and understand the breadth, depth, intensity & trend of rural poverty. 2 detailed calculations of the typical curve of income distribution in rural provinces and its evolution characteristics, to explore the economic development model in each region. 3 Construction of a consolidated analysis frame to analyze the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and poverty reduction process.
文章第一部分从不同的视角测算农村贫困和不平等状况。文章采用七种不同的贫困线，三种不同的家庭等值算子对贫困和收入不平等变动进行洛伦茨曲线的洛伦茨占优分析、各种不平等指数的对比分析、贫困指标的变动分析与分解分析。结果发现，①无论是否考虑家庭规模经济效应，自20世纪80年代以来，洛伦茨曲线随时间向右下方移动，中国农村的收入不平等状况在恶化；②1980—2006年，高收入阶层和低收入阶层分配状况均处于大幅变动中，不平等程度波动幅度大于中等收入阶层，表明收入分配出现两极分化迹象；③贫困指数变动趋势不受贫困线和等价规模的影响。依据不同贫困线计算贫困指数，均表明绝对差距在缩小；高贫困线计算所得到的贫困指数值及其变动幅度均大于低贫困线；④贫困分解结果表明，1980年以来农村人均收入在增长，但收入不平等也在上升，而且收入增长带来的贫困减少不足以抵消不平等加剧所引起的贫困增加，即收入分配差距的扩大降低了增长在减少贫困方面的作用。
文章第二部分主要对我国农村反贫困政策进行了评价。本章在总结农村贫困特征的基础上，通过将我国农村反贫困政策划分为救济性扶贫阶段、开发式扶贫阶段、注重参与、内外兼顾扶贫政策阶段和整村推进、多元化扶贫阶段四个阶段，来重点分析农村反贫困政策演进的特征与原因。通过这些分析，我们认为下一步农村反贫困要做到“三个坚持”(即坚持开发式扶贫向社会保护式扶贫转变的方针；坚持解决温饱和巩固温饱同时推进；坚持让贫困人口直接受益)，抓好“三个重点”(即整村推进、培训促进劳动力转移、产业化扶贫)。
文章第三部分主要探讨了我国农村减贫进程的特征与发展趋势。文章首先在贫困分解的基础上，运用贫困弹性的动态特征，从理论和实证的角度探讨了经济增长和收入分配对贫困减少的影响。结果发现，①在经济发展过程中，人均收入水平越高，收入不平等引起的贫困效应越强；②收入不平等越严重的地区(或国家)，贫困对收入不平等的反映越迟钝；③我国农村反贫困性质发生改变的拐点大致出现在1998年。文章建议，今后农村反贫困战略的重点应从以促进收入增长的开发式扶贫向以改善收入分配为重点的社会保护式扶贫政策转变。并且，如果要实现快速的减贫目标，应当实施有利于穷人的经济发展政策。
文章最后一部分运用门槛面板数据模型实证研究了贸易自由化影响我国农村贫困的机制和关系特征。结果发现，贸易自由化主要从经济增长、就业与工资以及物价水平四种路径影响农村贫困。并且，贸易自由化和农村贫困之间存在一种非线性的倒U关系。其政策含义是，我国应继续扩大对外贸易的规模与层次，让广大农民，特别是低收入农民，充分享受改革开放成果，摆脱贫困困境。
文章的主要贡献有：①运用不同贫困和不平等指数，以及不同的贫困线标准测算农村贫困和不平等状况，来判断和认识农村贫困的广度、深度和强度，及其变化趋势。②细致测算了典型省区农村收入分布曲线及其演进特征，并探讨了各地区的经济发展模式。③构建了一个分析经济增长、收入分配和减贫进程之间关系的统一分析框架。
In the past 30 years, China's rural poverty alleviation has achieved great efforts. If calculated in accordance with the official poverty standard, rural poverty rate dropped from 30.7% in 1978 to 1.6% in 2007 and the number of rural poor dropped from 250,000,000 to 14,790,000. It is unprecedented for the whole world that so many people were out of poverty in such a short period of time. World Bank studies have shown that without China's poverty alleviation efforts, the world's poor population won't decline. However, in China's reform and opening process, income distribution and the nature of poverty have taken place fundamental changes. Most studies have shown that rural China's income distribution has worsened and seriously affect the poverty alleviation progress. The latest World Bank study shows that anti-poverty work in China's rural areas will become more difficult and complicated. Therefore, the study of rural poverty, income distribution and anti-poverty issue has significant theoretical and practical meaning. The paper mainly analyze from rural poverty and inequality measurement, evaluation of anti-poverty policies and the characteristics & trends of poverty alleviation processing.
The first part of the paper measured poverty and inequality in rural areas from different angles. The paper uses seven different poverty line and three different equivalent operator family poverty to perform Lorenz curve for Lorenz dominance analysis, a variety of inequality indices for comparative analysis, poverty indicator analysis and decomposition analysis on changes of poverty and income inequality. It was found that, 1 Whether or not to consider the family economies scale effect, with the Lorenz curve moving to the lower right corner rural China's income inequality has been worsening since the 80's in 20~(th) century. 2 In 1980 - 2006, allocation of the high-income group and low-income group is in dramatic changes and the fluctuations degree of inequality is intensified than middle-income group, that is, the polarization trend of income distribution is obvious. 3 The poverty line and equivalence scale has no impact of the changes in the direction of the poverty index. To calculate the poverty index according to different poverty line show that the absolute gap is narrowing; poverty index value from high poverty line and its fluctuation are larger than low-poverty line. There is no impact of family equivalent size in rural China. 4 Poverty decomposition analysis shows that average income in rural areas increased since 1980 but income inequality also increased. And the poverty reduction from income growth is not sufficient to offset the poverty increase from the inequality, that is, the expansion of income allocation gap reduces the effect of poverty alleviation from the growth.
The second part of the paper focus on the evaluation of anti-poverty policies in rural areas of China. On the basis of summarizing the characteristics of rural poverty, this chapter mainly analyze the characteristics and reasons of rural anti-poverty policies processing by dividing the anti-poverty policies in rural areas of China into four phases as relief of poverty alleviation policies, development of poverty alleviation stage, focus participation and poverty alleviation for both inside & outside policies, diversification of poverty alleviation. Through these analysis, we believe that next step of rural anti-poverty should be the "three adhere to" (that is adhering to solving adequate food & clothing and stabling this at the same time; insisting that directly benefit the poor), doing a good job of "three keys" (that is, promotion of the whole village, training to enhance transfer of the labor force and the industrialized poverty alleviation).
The third part of the paper focus on the characteristics and development trend of China's rural poverty reduction process. First on the basis of poverty decomposition, the paper uses the dynamic characteristics of poverty flexibility to discuss how income growth and allocation impact the poverty alleviation from a theoretical and empirical point of view. It was found that, 1 in the economic development, the higher the level of average income the stronger the poverty effect caused by income inequality. 2 The more serious the income inequality the slower of poverty reflection from income inequality. 3 1998 is the inflection point of changing nature of anti-poverty in rural China. The paper recommends that in future the focus of anti-poverty policies in rural areas should change from the development style which to promote income growth to the social protection style which to improve income distribution. In addition, in order to rapidly achieve poverty alleviation goal, we should implement pro-poor economic development policies.
The final part of the paper use the threshold panel data model to empirically study the mechanism and relationship characteristics of how trade liberalization impact China's rural poverty. It was found that trade liberalization mainly impact rural poverty from the economic growth, employment, wages and price level channels. In addition, there is a non-linear inverted U relationship between trade liberalization and the urban poverty. Its policy implications is that our country should continue to expand the scale and level of foreign trade, so that the majority of people can fully enjoy the outcome of the reform and opening then are out of poverty.
The main contribution of the paper are: 1 the use of different indices of poverty and inequality, as well as the different standards of measurement of the poverty line in rural poverty and inequality, to determine and understand the breadth, depth, intensity & trend of rural poverty. 2 detailed calculations of the typical curve of income distribution in rural provinces and its evolution characteristics, to explore the economic development model in each region. 3 Construction of a consolidated analysis frame to analyze the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and poverty reduction process.
引文
[1] 国家统计局公布的1980-2006年农村贫困线水平依次为：130元、142元、164元、179元、200元、206元、213元、227元、236元、259元、300元、307元、317元、350元、440元、530元、580元、640元、635元、625元、625元、630元、627元、637元、668元、683元和693元。该贫困线是国家统计局农调总队在1986年对全国6．7万户农村居民收支调查资料进行计算后，得到1985年绝对贫困线为206元，其余年份是依据农村居民消费物价指数变动逐年调整得到的(国家统计局农调总队，2003)。
[2] 表中，基尼系数、贫困率、贫困差距率、平方贫困距以及贫困的分解是用SimSIP贫困模拟器计算得到，软件来源：http://www.worldbank.org\simsip；相关贫困弹性是由POVCAL贫困软件计算得到，软件来源：http://www.worldbank.org/html/prdph/Isms/tools/povcal。
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[2] 表中，基尼系数、贫困率、贫困差距率、平方贫困距以及贫困的分解是用SimSIP贫困模拟器计算得到，软件来源：http://www.worldbank.org\simsip；相关贫困弹性是由POVCAL贫困软件计算得到，软件来源：http://www.worldbank.org/html/prdph/Isms/tools/povcal。
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