中国投入产出核算矩阵的编制与应用研究
|
摘要
投入产出理论自Leontief于1936年提出以来，便成为经济分析中的一种经典的分析方法，得到了广泛地应用，并且经过各个国家多年在实践中的研究和探索，得到了不断的完善和发展。与经济账户比较，投入产出核算提供了一个非常详细的产品部门和产业部门分类结构，从而便于进行更加详细的分析，被普遍用于经济预测、政策模拟、经济规划等方面，投入产出技术的应用范围也从原来经济领域扩展到了人口、劳动、资源、环境等诸多领域，是对经济社会分析的有力工具。
投入产出核算矩阵是投入产出表的一种特殊形式，是社会核算矩阵（SAM）的组成部分，表式结构与供给使用表一致，即“产品×部门”表，包含了中间流量矩阵、产出矩阵、最终使用矩阵和增加值矩阵四个子矩阵，从本质上来说，投入产出核算矩阵就是经济账户的矩阵表现形式，由产品账户、产业部门账户、增加值账户所构成。综合经济账户只包含重要经济总量，而投入产出核算矩阵中则能够对生产活动和产品做出划分，从而便于进行更加详细的分析。从投入产出核算衍生出的投入产出分析是一种将经济理论和数学方法结合的最为融洽的经济数量分析方法，投入产出核算矩阵将“投入”和“产出”放在一起，在全球市场中，出现了更多的竞争、相互依存的生产关系、分工的深化、以及更多复杂和多样的产品，中间交换变得越来越重要。因此近些年来，基于投入产出技术的各种经济分析方法也日渐丰富，如乘数分析、线性规划分析、动态投入产出模型等等，纵观国内外研究成果，我国对于投入产出的研究虽说成果丰富，但与国外当前研究水平之间差距依然存在。
鉴于此，本文在对国内外关于投入产出研究成果进行大量查阅基础上，主要从投入产出核算矩阵连续年度编制、延长表编制、分析模型三个方面对我国投入产出核算矩阵进行研究。主要思路是：1、将我国公布的“产品×产品”表调整为“产品×部门”表形式，并以我国GDP核算数据口径为准，将“产品×部门”表数据调整到与GDP核算数据口径一致，编制已公布数据年度投入产出核算矩阵；2、以我国各种来源的公开数据为基础，通过逐项衔接的方法对不平衡数据进行处理，采用“RAS法”、“修正的RAS法”、“固定比例法”、“可变比例法”、“分项平衡等方法，推算部分中间年份未知数据，形成1992-2007年连续年度中国投入产出核算矩阵序列表；3、在连续年度投入产出核算矩阵序列表的基础上，利用“计量经济模型预测”方法，对2008-2011年延长表进行编制，并运用联合国在SNA中倡导的推导法编制我国1992-2011年连续年度“部门×部门”表；4、利用前文编制和推算的投入产出核算矩阵和“部门×部门”表时间序列作为数据基础，采用基本分析、乘数模型分析、动态模型分析等方法对我国经济发展进行了分析。
本文的第一章对现有的、比较成熟的投入产出核算以及矩阵理论进行了介绍，具体为投入产出核算的概念及产生的背景、投入产出核算矩阵概念、原理、特点等方面，并对本文的研究背景、内容、方法、创新点及重点进行了详细的说明。
第二章是文献综述部分，主要对投入产出核算矩阵编制方法理论、更新方法以及应用技术的发展及现状进行了梳理，对理论及前人使用过的相关编制和分析方法做出了清晰的说明，为本文的研究奠定了基础。
第三章主要讨论了我国投入产出核算矩阵编制的整体思路以及详细的编制方法。首先，对本文所要编制的投入产出核算矩阵具体表式结构进行了说明，并根据我国公布投入产出表的实际情况，将编制过程分为三步，第一是已公布数据年份投入产出核算矩阵编制设计，第二是中间未公布数据年度矩阵推算方法设计，第三是投入产出核算矩阵延长表的预测模型设计。尔后在投入产出核算矩阵的基础上，运用“推导法”编制出“部门×部门”投入产出表。第四章则是根据第三章中所设计的编制方法，对中国1992-2011年投入产出核算矩阵以及“部门×部门”表进行实际编制。
第五章和第六章是以1992-2011年的中国投入产出核算矩阵以及“部门×部门”表为数据基础，利用投入产出分析方法对我国经济现状及变化趋势进行了分析。首先是基本分析，也就是非常直观的对投入产出核算矩阵序列表中的总量以及结构进行了描述性分析；其次是部门间流量关系分析，是在“部门×部门”序列表的基础上，计算直接消耗系数矩阵、最初投入系数矩阵、分配系数矩阵对部门间的流量关系进行了分析；第三是静态乘数模型分析，构建了基于投入产出核算矩阵的乘数模型，对最终需求变动的经济效应进行了分析；第六章为动态投入产出计量经济模型的设计与分析，结合投入产出核算矩阵序列表以及必要的经济变量，构建中国动态投入产出计量经济模型，对我国2012-2015年的主要经济变量进行了预测及规划。
最后的第七章对全文的研究内容进行了一个概括性的总结，并结合前人的研究和本文研究的不足之处，对未来我国投入产出研究的发展方向提出了一些展望。
Since input-output theory has been proposed by Leontief in1936, it has become a classicalanalysis method widely used in economic analysis, and through the research and exploration ofmany countries in the world in practice for many years, it gets the continuous improvement anddevelopment. Compared with the economic accounts, input-output model provides a very detailedproduct department and the industry structure, so as to facilitate more detailed analysis, and widelyused in economic forecasting, policy simulation, economic planning, the application of theinput-output technology range from the original economic field to expand to many areas ofpopulation, labor, resource, environment and so on, it has become a powerful tool for the analysisof economic relations among departments.
Input-Output Accounting Matrix is a special form of input-output tables, is a component ofSocial Accounting Matrix (SAM), its structure is consistent with supply and use table, embodyingthe middle flow matrix, output matrix, finally use matrix and the added value matrix. In essence,Input-Output Accounting Matrix is the form of matrix of economic accounts, composed of productaccounts, industry sector accounts and added value account. For economic accounts, it onlycontains economic integrated indicator, while production activities and products can be divided soas to make analysis more detailed. Input-output analysis derivate from input-output accounting is amore harmonious economic quantity analysis method linking economic theory with mathematicalmethod. Input-Output Accounting Matrix puts "input" and "output" together, in the global market;there are much more competition, the interdependent production relations, the deepening divisionof labor, and more complex and diverse products, therefore intermediate exchange becomes moreand more important. In recent years, various methods of economic analysis based on input-outputtables are also increasingly rich, such as the multiplier analysis, linear programming analysis, anddynamic input-output model and so on. Throughout the research at home and abroad, domesticresearch on input-output is rich to some extent, but the gap of current research between domesticand foreign still exists.
In view of this, this thesis mainly research Input-Output Accounting Matrix of China from thethree aspects of continuous annual Input-Output Accounting Matrix compilation, extension table compilation, and input-output models, based on reviewing a large number of the domestic andforeign research on input-output technology. The main idea is:1、adjusting the "Products byProducts" tables announced by National Bureau of Statistics of China to the form of "Products byIndustries ", and further adjusting "Products by Industries " tables to GDP accounting caliber.2、Based on publicly available data from various sources, adjusting items unbalanced through themethod of linking, including "RAS method","modified RAS method","fixed ratio method","variable ratio method" and " equilibrium itemized method", then we compile continuousInput-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables of China from the year1992to2007.3、Based onthe continuous Input-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables, this thesis compile extend tablesfrom the year2008to2011using the method of “Econometric model”, and compile “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations.4、 Based onInput-Output Accounting Matrix and “Industries by Industries” tables compiled in the previoussection, the thesis analyzes present situation and trend of economic development of China,applying the methods including fundamental analysis, multiplier analysis, dynamic analysis and soon.
The first chapter of this thesis introduces the current, mature Input-Output Accounting andMatrix related theoretical system in detail, including the Input-Output Accounting concept,background, Input-Output Accounting Matrix concept, principles, characteristics, finally alsointroduces the background, content, research methods, innovation and emphasis of the thesis indetail.
The second chapter is the literature review section, mainly introduces theoretical systemcurrent situation and development of compilation methods, update methods, and the applicationtechnology, it laid the foundation for research of this thesis.
The third chapter focuses on the whole compilation idea and detailed compilation methods ofChina’s Input-Output Accounting Matrix. First, introduces specific table structure of China’sInput-Output Accounting Matrix, and according to the actual situation of input-output tablesannounced by National Bureau of Statistics of China, the chapter follows three-step process: thefirst step designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix announced; the secondstep designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix unpublished data in Year ofthe middle; and the third step designs the prediction model of Input-Output Accounting Matrix extended table, and on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix, compiles “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations. According to thecompilation method in the previous chapter, the fourth chapter compiles Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables including data from the year1992to2011.
The fifth and sixth chapter uses the1992-2011years’ Chinese Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables for data base design, analysis China's current economicsituation and trend based on the above analysis models. The first is the basic analysis, which is veryintuitive descriptive analysis of aggregate indicators and structure of Input-Output AccountingMatrix sequence tables. Followed by inter-sectoral flow relations analysis, calculates the directconsumption coefficient matrix, the initial input coefficient matrix and the distribution coefficientmatrix based on “Industries by Industries” tables. The third is static multiplier analysis, calculatesthe economic effects of final demand on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix. Finally thesixth chapter designs and analyzes the dynamic input-output econometric model, then buildsdynamic input-output econometric model combined with the Input-Output Accounting Matrixsequence tables data and other necessary economic data, forecasts and plans the main economicindicators of the year2012-2015.
The seventh chapter is a general summary according to the study contents of the thesis, andcombining with the Predecessors’ summary and shortcoming of this thesis, some future prospectson Chinese input-output research are made.
投入产出核算矩阵是投入产出表的一种特殊形式，是社会核算矩阵（SAM）的组成部分，表式结构与供给使用表一致，即“产品×部门”表，包含了中间流量矩阵、产出矩阵、最终使用矩阵和增加值矩阵四个子矩阵，从本质上来说，投入产出核算矩阵就是经济账户的矩阵表现形式，由产品账户、产业部门账户、增加值账户所构成。综合经济账户只包含重要经济总量，而投入产出核算矩阵中则能够对生产活动和产品做出划分，从而便于进行更加详细的分析。从投入产出核算衍生出的投入产出分析是一种将经济理论和数学方法结合的最为融洽的经济数量分析方法，投入产出核算矩阵将“投入”和“产出”放在一起，在全球市场中，出现了更多的竞争、相互依存的生产关系、分工的深化、以及更多复杂和多样的产品，中间交换变得越来越重要。因此近些年来，基于投入产出技术的各种经济分析方法也日渐丰富，如乘数分析、线性规划分析、动态投入产出模型等等，纵观国内外研究成果，我国对于投入产出的研究虽说成果丰富，但与国外当前研究水平之间差距依然存在。
鉴于此，本文在对国内外关于投入产出研究成果进行大量查阅基础上，主要从投入产出核算矩阵连续年度编制、延长表编制、分析模型三个方面对我国投入产出核算矩阵进行研究。主要思路是：1、将我国公布的“产品×产品”表调整为“产品×部门”表形式，并以我国GDP核算数据口径为准，将“产品×部门”表数据调整到与GDP核算数据口径一致，编制已公布数据年度投入产出核算矩阵；2、以我国各种来源的公开数据为基础，通过逐项衔接的方法对不平衡数据进行处理，采用“RAS法”、“修正的RAS法”、“固定比例法”、“可变比例法”、“分项平衡等方法，推算部分中间年份未知数据，形成1992-2007年连续年度中国投入产出核算矩阵序列表；3、在连续年度投入产出核算矩阵序列表的基础上，利用“计量经济模型预测”方法，对2008-2011年延长表进行编制，并运用联合国在SNA中倡导的推导法编制我国1992-2011年连续年度“部门×部门”表；4、利用前文编制和推算的投入产出核算矩阵和“部门×部门”表时间序列作为数据基础，采用基本分析、乘数模型分析、动态模型分析等方法对我国经济发展进行了分析。
本文的第一章对现有的、比较成熟的投入产出核算以及矩阵理论进行了介绍，具体为投入产出核算的概念及产生的背景、投入产出核算矩阵概念、原理、特点等方面，并对本文的研究背景、内容、方法、创新点及重点进行了详细的说明。
第二章是文献综述部分，主要对投入产出核算矩阵编制方法理论、更新方法以及应用技术的发展及现状进行了梳理，对理论及前人使用过的相关编制和分析方法做出了清晰的说明，为本文的研究奠定了基础。
第三章主要讨论了我国投入产出核算矩阵编制的整体思路以及详细的编制方法。首先，对本文所要编制的投入产出核算矩阵具体表式结构进行了说明，并根据我国公布投入产出表的实际情况，将编制过程分为三步，第一是已公布数据年份投入产出核算矩阵编制设计，第二是中间未公布数据年度矩阵推算方法设计，第三是投入产出核算矩阵延长表的预测模型设计。尔后在投入产出核算矩阵的基础上，运用“推导法”编制出“部门×部门”投入产出表。第四章则是根据第三章中所设计的编制方法，对中国1992-2011年投入产出核算矩阵以及“部门×部门”表进行实际编制。
第五章和第六章是以1992-2011年的中国投入产出核算矩阵以及“部门×部门”表为数据基础，利用投入产出分析方法对我国经济现状及变化趋势进行了分析。首先是基本分析，也就是非常直观的对投入产出核算矩阵序列表中的总量以及结构进行了描述性分析；其次是部门间流量关系分析，是在“部门×部门”序列表的基础上，计算直接消耗系数矩阵、最初投入系数矩阵、分配系数矩阵对部门间的流量关系进行了分析；第三是静态乘数模型分析，构建了基于投入产出核算矩阵的乘数模型，对最终需求变动的经济效应进行了分析；第六章为动态投入产出计量经济模型的设计与分析，结合投入产出核算矩阵序列表以及必要的经济变量，构建中国动态投入产出计量经济模型，对我国2012-2015年的主要经济变量进行了预测及规划。
最后的第七章对全文的研究内容进行了一个概括性的总结，并结合前人的研究和本文研究的不足之处，对未来我国投入产出研究的发展方向提出了一些展望。
Since input-output theory has been proposed by Leontief in1936, it has become a classicalanalysis method widely used in economic analysis, and through the research and exploration ofmany countries in the world in practice for many years, it gets the continuous improvement anddevelopment. Compared with the economic accounts, input-output model provides a very detailedproduct department and the industry structure, so as to facilitate more detailed analysis, and widelyused in economic forecasting, policy simulation, economic planning, the application of theinput-output technology range from the original economic field to expand to many areas ofpopulation, labor, resource, environment and so on, it has become a powerful tool for the analysisof economic relations among departments.
Input-Output Accounting Matrix is a special form of input-output tables, is a component ofSocial Accounting Matrix (SAM), its structure is consistent with supply and use table, embodyingthe middle flow matrix, output matrix, finally use matrix and the added value matrix. In essence,Input-Output Accounting Matrix is the form of matrix of economic accounts, composed of productaccounts, industry sector accounts and added value account. For economic accounts, it onlycontains economic integrated indicator, while production activities and products can be divided soas to make analysis more detailed. Input-output analysis derivate from input-output accounting is amore harmonious economic quantity analysis method linking economic theory with mathematicalmethod. Input-Output Accounting Matrix puts "input" and "output" together, in the global market;there are much more competition, the interdependent production relations, the deepening divisionof labor, and more complex and diverse products, therefore intermediate exchange becomes moreand more important. In recent years, various methods of economic analysis based on input-outputtables are also increasingly rich, such as the multiplier analysis, linear programming analysis, anddynamic input-output model and so on. Throughout the research at home and abroad, domesticresearch on input-output is rich to some extent, but the gap of current research between domesticand foreign still exists.
In view of this, this thesis mainly research Input-Output Accounting Matrix of China from thethree aspects of continuous annual Input-Output Accounting Matrix compilation, extension table compilation, and input-output models, based on reviewing a large number of the domestic andforeign research on input-output technology. The main idea is:1、adjusting the "Products byProducts" tables announced by National Bureau of Statistics of China to the form of "Products byIndustries ", and further adjusting "Products by Industries " tables to GDP accounting caliber.2、Based on publicly available data from various sources, adjusting items unbalanced through themethod of linking, including "RAS method","modified RAS method","fixed ratio method","variable ratio method" and " equilibrium itemized method", then we compile continuousInput-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables of China from the year1992to2007.3、Based onthe continuous Input-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables, this thesis compile extend tablesfrom the year2008to2011using the method of “Econometric model”, and compile “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations.4、 Based onInput-Output Accounting Matrix and “Industries by Industries” tables compiled in the previoussection, the thesis analyzes present situation and trend of economic development of China,applying the methods including fundamental analysis, multiplier analysis, dynamic analysis and soon.
The first chapter of this thesis introduces the current, mature Input-Output Accounting andMatrix related theoretical system in detail, including the Input-Output Accounting concept,background, Input-Output Accounting Matrix concept, principles, characteristics, finally alsointroduces the background, content, research methods, innovation and emphasis of the thesis indetail.
The second chapter is the literature review section, mainly introduces theoretical systemcurrent situation and development of compilation methods, update methods, and the applicationtechnology, it laid the foundation for research of this thesis.
The third chapter focuses on the whole compilation idea and detailed compilation methods ofChina’s Input-Output Accounting Matrix. First, introduces specific table structure of China’sInput-Output Accounting Matrix, and according to the actual situation of input-output tablesannounced by National Bureau of Statistics of China, the chapter follows three-step process: thefirst step designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix announced; the secondstep designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix unpublished data in Year ofthe middle; and the third step designs the prediction model of Input-Output Accounting Matrix extended table, and on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix, compiles “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations. According to thecompilation method in the previous chapter, the fourth chapter compiles Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables including data from the year1992to2011.
The fifth and sixth chapter uses the1992-2011years’ Chinese Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables for data base design, analysis China's current economicsituation and trend based on the above analysis models. The first is the basic analysis, which is veryintuitive descriptive analysis of aggregate indicators and structure of Input-Output AccountingMatrix sequence tables. Followed by inter-sectoral flow relations analysis, calculates the directconsumption coefficient matrix, the initial input coefficient matrix and the distribution coefficientmatrix based on “Industries by Industries” tables. The third is static multiplier analysis, calculatesthe economic effects of final demand on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix. Finally thesixth chapter designs and analyzes the dynamic input-output econometric model, then buildsdynamic input-output econometric model combined with the Input-Output Accounting Matrixsequence tables data and other necessary economic data, forecasts and plans the main economicindicators of the year2012-2015.
The seventh chapter is a general summary according to the study contents of the thesis, andcombining with the Predecessors’ summary and shortcoming of this thesis, some future prospectson Chinese input-output research are made.
引文
4《国民经济行业分类》(GB T4754-2011)。
5李宝瑜．国民经济核算与分析[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1994．
【1】 Aberg M., H. Persson, A Note on a Closed Input-Output Model with Finite Life-Times andGestation Lags, Journal of Economic Theory,1981(24):446–452.
【2】 Annemarth M. Idenburg, Harry C. Wilting, DIMITRI: A Dynamic Input-Output Model toStudy the Impacts of Technology Related Innovations [J], Paper to be presented at the XIII InternationalConference on Input-Output Techniques,2000,
【3】 Armstrong A.G., Technology Assumptions in the Construction of United KingdomInput–Output Tables. In: R.I.G. Allen and W.F. Gossling (eds.) Estimating and Updating Input–OutputCoefficients [M]. London,1975.
【4】 Bacharach M., Biproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change [M], Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1970.
【5】 Benjamin, Ahmadi-Esfahani, Updating an Input-Output Table for Use In Policy Analysis[J], Australian Journal of Agr icultural and Resource Economics,1998(4):573-631.
【6】 Beutel, Joerg, The economic impact of objective interventions for the period2000-2006[J],Report to the Directorate General for Regional Policies, Konstanz,2002.
【7】 Bohlin L., L.M.Widell, Estimation of Commodity-by-Commodity Input–Output Matrices [J],Economic Systems Research,2006(18):205–215.
【8】 Branko Vitas, The Challenges of Introducing New Standards and Classificationgs into theAstraliasn Input-Output Tables [J], Paper for The19th International Input-Output Conference.
【9】 Chenery, Hollis B., Clark P. G., Interindustry Economics [M], New York,1959.
【10】 Chipman J., Linear Programming [J], Review of Economics and Statistics,1953, Vol.35:101-117.
【11】 Christopher W. Anderson, Joost R. Santos, Yacov Y. Haimes, A Risk-based Input–OutputMethodology for Measuring the Effects of the August2003Northeast Blackout [J], Economic SystemsResearch,2007(2):183-204.
【12】 Dantzig, George, Maximisation of a Linear Function of Variables Subject to LinearInequalities, in: Activity analysis of Production and Allocation [M]. New York,1951.
【13】 Department for Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations, Handbook of Input-OutputTable Compilation and Analysis, New York: United Nations publication,1999.
【14】 Dorfman, Robert, Samuelson, Paul. A., Solow, Robert M., Linear Programming andEconomic Analysis [M], New York,1958.
【15】 Dorfman Robert, Mathematical or Linear Programming: A Nonmathematical Exposition[J], American Economic Review,1953, Vol.43:797-825.
【16】 European Commission, Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables [M],Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,2008.
【17】 Gigantes T., The Representation of Technology in Input–Output Systems. In: A.P. Carterand A. Brody Contributions to Input–Output Analysis [M], Luxembourg: North Holland,1970.
【18】 Gilchrist D.A., St Louis L.V., Completing Input-Output Tables Using Partial Information:with an Application to Canadian Data [J], Economic Systems Research,1999(2):185-193.
【19】 Golan A., Judge G., Robinson S., Recovering Information from Incomplete or PartialMultisectoral Economic Data [J], The Review of Economic and Statistics,1994(3):541-549.
【20】 Gosh A., Programming and Input-Output Models [J], Selected Papers on Indian Planning,Cambridge,1968.
【21】 Hy R.J., J.R.Wollscheid, Economic Modeling.In:G.J.Miller and K.Yang, Hand-book ofResearch Methods Public Administration [M], New York: Auerbach Publications,2008.
【22】 Holub, Hans-Werner, Hermann Schnabl, Input-Output Rechnung-Input-Output Analyse[J], München,1994:331-373.
【23】 Israilevich,Hewings, For Ecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model [J], Journal of Regional Science,1997(4):565-591.
【24】 Jackson R.W., Murray A.T., Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations [J],Economic Systems Research,2004(2):135-148.
【25】 Johansen L., On the Theory of Dynamic Input-Output Models with Different Time Profilesof Capital Construction and Finite Life-Time of Capital Equipment [J], Journal of Economic Theory,1978(19):513–533.
【26】 Jorgenson D. W., A dual stability theorem [J], Econometrica,1960(28):892–899.
【27】 Jorgenson D. W., Stability of a Dynamic Input-Output System [J], Review of EconomicStudies,1961(28):105–116.
【28】 JoséM.Rueda-Cantuche, Econometric Analysis of European Carbon Dioxide EmissionsBased On Rectangular Supply-Use Tables [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(3):261-280.
【29】 Jose B. Cruz., Raymond R. Tan, Alvin B. Culaba, Jo-Anne Ballacillo, A dynamicInput–Output Model for Nascent Bioenergy Supply Chains [J], Applied Energy,2009(4):86-94.
【30】 Kendrick D., On the Leontief Dynamic Inverse [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1972(86):693–696.
【31】 Koopmans, T. C. Analysis of Production as an Efficient Combination of Activities, in:Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation [M], New York,1951.
【32】 Kop Jansen P., T.ten Raa, The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input–OutputCoefficients Matrices [J], International Economic Review,1990(31):213–227.
【33】 Kuroda, KLEMS in ICPA. Mimeo,2001.
【34】 Kurz H. D., N. Salvadori, The Dynamic Leontief Model and the Theory of EndogenousGrowth [J], Economic Systems Research,2000(2):255–265.
【35】 Lahr M.L., Mesnard L.D., Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: TablesUpdating and Structural Anaysis [J], Economic Systems Research,2004(2):115-134.
【36】 Lars Bohlina and Lars M. Widella, Estimation of commodity-by-commodity input–outputmatrices [J], Economic Systems Research,2006(2).
【37】 Los B., Endogenous Growth and Structural Change in a Dynamic Input-Output Model [J],Economic Systems Research,2001(1):3–34.
【38】 Luenberger D. G., A. Arbel, Singular Dynamic Leontief Systems [J], Econometrica,1977(45):991–995.
【39】 Manfred Lenzen, Aggregation Versus Disaggregation In Input–Output Analysis Of TheEnvironment [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(1):73–89.
【40】 Manfred Lenzena, Maria Cecilia Pinto de Mourab, Arne Geschkea, Keiichiro Kanemotoac,Daniel Dean Morana, A Cycling Method For Constructing Input–Output Table Time Series FromIncomplete Data [J], Economic Systems Research,2012(4):413-432.
【41】 Matthews H.S, L.B Lave, Using Input–Output Analysis for Corporate Benchmarking [J],Benchmarking: An International Journal,2003(10):153–168.
【42】 Matuszewski T., Partly disaggregated rectangular input-output models and their use forthe purposes of large corporation [M], London,1972.
【43】 Marco Percoco, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Lanfranco Senn, Structural ChangeDecomposition through a Global Sensitivity Analysis of Input–Output Models [J], Economic SystemsResearch,2006(2):115-131.
【44】 Matuszewski, T.I., Pitts, P.R, Sawyer J.A., Linear Programming Estimates Of Changes InInput-Coefficients [J], Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1964(2):202-210.
【45】 Meyer U., Why Singularity of Dynamic Leontief Systems Does Not Matter [M], inInput-Output Analysis Volume, Northampton: Edward Elger Publishing,1982.
【46】 Miller R.E., Blair, Input–Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions [M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,2009.
【47】 Morishima M. Prices, Interest and Profits in a Dynamic Leontief System [J], Econometrica,1958(26):358–380.
【48】 Natalia Ustinova, Supply and Use Tables and Input-Output Tables for Russia [J], Paperfor The17th International Input-Output Conference,2008.
【49】 Nicola J. Smith, Garry W. McDonald, Estimation of Symmetric Input-Output Tables: AnExtension to Bholin and Widell [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(23):49–72.
【50】 Oosterhaven J., Junius T., The Solution of Updating or Regionalizing a Matrix with bothPositive and Negative Entries [J], Economic Systems Research,2003(1):87-96.
【51】 Pasinetti, Luigi L., Lectures on the Theory of Production [M], London,1977.
【52】 Peter Ritzmann, Jose M.Rueda-Cantuche, A Consolidated European Union and EuroArea Supply-Use System and Input-Output Tablrs [J], Paper for The18th International Input-OutputConference,2010.
【53】 Piet, Verbiest, Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables in the Netherlands [J], Paper for The19th International Input-Output Conference,2011.
【54】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., Beutel J., Neuwahl F., Mongelli I., Loeschel A., A SymmetricInput-Output Table for EU27: Latest Progress [J], Economic Systems Research,2009(21),59-79.
【55】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., T. ten Raa, Testing the Assumptions Made in the Construction ofInput–Output Tables [J]. Working Paper Series of the IIOA,2009.
【56】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., T. ten Raa, The Choice of Model in the Construction of IndustryCoefficients Matrices [J], Economic Systems Research,2009(21):363–376.
【57】 Sargan J. D., The Instability Of The Leontief Dynamic Model [J], Econometrica,1958(26):381–392.
【58】 Sargan J. D., Lags And The Stability Of Dynamic Systems: A Reply [J], Econometrica,1961(29):670–673.
【59】 Schumann, Jochen, Input-Output-Analyse [M], Berlin,1968.
【60】 Shannon C.E., A Mathematical Theoty of Communication Bell [J], Systems TechnicalJournal,1948(27):379-423.
【61】 Shrestha N., An Estimation Algorithm of International Input–Output Table: How to Get anUnpublished Year Table [M], Yokohama: Yokohama University,2008.
【62】 Solow R. M., Competitive Valuation in a Dynamic Input-Output System [J], Econometrica,1989(27):30–53.
【63】 Stone, Multiple Classification in Social Accounting [J], Bulletin Institut InternationalStatistical, Vol.1962(3):215-231.
【64】 ten Raa T., J.M.Rueda-Cantuche, The Construction of Input–Output Coefficients Matrix inan Axiomatic Context: Some Further Considerations [J]. Economic Systems Research,2003(15):439–445.
【65】 ten Raa, Thijs, The Economics of Input-Output Analysis [M], Cambridge UniversityPress,2006.
【66】 ten Raa, Dynamic Input-Output Analysis with Distributed Activities [J], Review ofEconomics and Statistics,1986b(68):300–310.
【67】 Thomas Wiedmann, Carbon Footprint and Input–Output Analysis–An Introduction [J],Economic Systems Research,2009(3):175-186.
【68】 Tilanus, C.B., Input-output experiments, The Netherlands1948-1961[M], Rotterdam,1968.
【69】 Tokoyama, K., Y. Murakami, Relative Stability in Two Types Of Dynamic Leontief Models[J], International Economic Review,1972(13):408–415.
【70】 United Nations, The System of National Accounts(2008)[M], New York: United Nationspublication,2008.
【71】 United Nations, The System of National Accounts (1968)[M], New York: United Nationspublication,1968.
【72】 Wassily Leontief, Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of theUnited States [J], The Review of Economids and Statistics,1936(3):105-125.
【73】 Wassily Leontief, Lags And The Stability Of Dynamic Systems [J], Econometrica,1961(29):659–669.
【74】 Wassily Leontief, Input-Output Economics [M], New York.1966.
【75】 Wassily Leontief, Faye Duchin et al, The Impacts of Automation on Employment1963-2000[J], Final Report to the Science Foundation,PRA-8012844,1984.
【76】 Wassily Leontief, Input-Output Economics [M], New York1986.
【77】陈锡康，杨翠红．投入产出技术[M]．北京：科学出版社，2011第1版．
【78】陈锡康，王戈丰，张启江．偏差法—投入产出表平衡调整的新方法[J]．统计研究，1988（2）：41-43．
【79】成定平．浙江扩大消费和出口的产业结构调整方向—基于动态投入产出模型分析[J]．统计科学与实践，2011（4）：23-25．
【80】董承章．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国财政出版社，2000第1版．
【81】范金，万兴．投入产出表和社会核算矩阵更新研究评述[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，2007（5）：151-160．
【82】国家统计局国民经济核算司．2007中国地区投入产出表[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，2011第1版．
【83】贺菊煌．混合工艺假设下投入产出系数推导法[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1988（8）．
【84】胡兆光，谭显东．直接消耗系数的组合更新法研究[J]．统计研究，2008（3）：71-74．
【85】姜超，张金水．考虑税收的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型及其参数设定[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2004（8）：32-37．
【86】李宝瑜．国民经济核算与分析[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1994．
【87】李宝瑜，马克卫．中国社会核算矩阵编制方法研究[J]，统计研究，2011（11）．
【88】李善同．中国宏观经济多部门动态模型(MUDAN)[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1995（1）：19-27．
【89】李秉全．投入产出技术与企业管理现代化[M]．北京：科学出版社，1988．
【90】联合国等．国民经济核算体系（1993）[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1995．
【91】刘起运．关于投入产出系数结构分析方法的研究[J]．统计研究，2002（2）：40-42．
【92】刘起运，陈璋，苏汝．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006．
【93】刘焕新．一种改进的动态投入产出模型[J]．系统工程，1987（2）：50-54．
【94】马向前，任若恩．中国投入产出序列表外推方法研究[J]．统计研究，2004（4）：31-34．
【95】瓦尔拉斯.纯粹经济学要义或社会财富理论[M].蔡受百译.北京:商务印书馆，1898．
【96】向蓉美．投入产出分析[M]．成都：西南财经大学出版社，2007第1版．
【97】曾五一．关于动态投入产出最优化模型应用的研究[J]．系统工程，1985（5）。
【98】张凤祥．一个容易操作的动态投入产出模型[J]．经济数学，1998（1）：114-119．
【99】张守一，肖志杰．科技投入产出模型研究[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1991（2）．
【100】张金水．中国六部门可计算非线性动态投入产出模型的平衡增长解[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2000（9）：49-52．
【101】赵新刚，袁晓波，宋建学．含有产出增长率的动态投入产出模型及应用[J]．技术经济，2003（4）：55-56．
【102】钟契夫．钟契夫自选集[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2007．
【103】钟契夫，陈锡康，刘起运．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1993．
5李宝瑜．国民经济核算与分析[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1994．
【1】 Aberg M., H. Persson, A Note on a Closed Input-Output Model with Finite Life-Times andGestation Lags, Journal of Economic Theory,1981(24):446–452.
【2】 Annemarth M. Idenburg, Harry C. Wilting, DIMITRI: A Dynamic Input-Output Model toStudy the Impacts of Technology Related Innovations [J], Paper to be presented at the XIII InternationalConference on Input-Output Techniques,2000,
【3】 Armstrong A.G., Technology Assumptions in the Construction of United KingdomInput–Output Tables. In: R.I.G. Allen and W.F. Gossling (eds.) Estimating and Updating Input–OutputCoefficients [M]. London,1975.
【4】 Bacharach M., Biproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change [M], Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1970.
【5】 Benjamin, Ahmadi-Esfahani, Updating an Input-Output Table for Use In Policy Analysis[J], Australian Journal of Agr icultural and Resource Economics,1998(4):573-631.
【6】 Beutel, Joerg, The economic impact of objective interventions for the period2000-2006[J],Report to the Directorate General for Regional Policies, Konstanz,2002.
【7】 Bohlin L., L.M.Widell, Estimation of Commodity-by-Commodity Input–Output Matrices [J],Economic Systems Research,2006(18):205–215.
【8】 Branko Vitas, The Challenges of Introducing New Standards and Classificationgs into theAstraliasn Input-Output Tables [J], Paper for The19th International Input-Output Conference.
【9】 Chenery, Hollis B., Clark P. G., Interindustry Economics [M], New York,1959.
【10】 Chipman J., Linear Programming [J], Review of Economics and Statistics,1953, Vol.35:101-117.
【11】 Christopher W. Anderson, Joost R. Santos, Yacov Y. Haimes, A Risk-based Input–OutputMethodology for Measuring the Effects of the August2003Northeast Blackout [J], Economic SystemsResearch,2007(2):183-204.
【12】 Dantzig, George, Maximisation of a Linear Function of Variables Subject to LinearInequalities, in: Activity analysis of Production and Allocation [M]. New York,1951.
【13】 Department for Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations, Handbook of Input-OutputTable Compilation and Analysis, New York: United Nations publication,1999.
【14】 Dorfman, Robert, Samuelson, Paul. A., Solow, Robert M., Linear Programming andEconomic Analysis [M], New York,1958.
【15】 Dorfman Robert, Mathematical or Linear Programming: A Nonmathematical Exposition[J], American Economic Review,1953, Vol.43:797-825.
【16】 European Commission, Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables [M],Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,2008.
【17】 Gigantes T., The Representation of Technology in Input–Output Systems. In: A.P. Carterand A. Brody Contributions to Input–Output Analysis [M], Luxembourg: North Holland,1970.
【18】 Gilchrist D.A., St Louis L.V., Completing Input-Output Tables Using Partial Information:with an Application to Canadian Data [J], Economic Systems Research,1999(2):185-193.
【19】 Golan A., Judge G., Robinson S., Recovering Information from Incomplete or PartialMultisectoral Economic Data [J], The Review of Economic and Statistics,1994(3):541-549.
【20】 Gosh A., Programming and Input-Output Models [J], Selected Papers on Indian Planning,Cambridge,1968.
【21】 Hy R.J., J.R.Wollscheid, Economic Modeling.In:G.J.Miller and K.Yang, Hand-book ofResearch Methods Public Administration [M], New York: Auerbach Publications,2008.
【22】 Holub, Hans-Werner, Hermann Schnabl, Input-Output Rechnung-Input-Output Analyse[J], München,1994:331-373.
【23】 Israilevich,Hewings, For Ecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model [J], Journal of Regional Science,1997(4):565-591.
【24】 Jackson R.W., Murray A.T., Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations [J],Economic Systems Research,2004(2):135-148.
【25】 Johansen L., On the Theory of Dynamic Input-Output Models with Different Time Profilesof Capital Construction and Finite Life-Time of Capital Equipment [J], Journal of Economic Theory,1978(19):513–533.
【26】 Jorgenson D. W., A dual stability theorem [J], Econometrica,1960(28):892–899.
【27】 Jorgenson D. W., Stability of a Dynamic Input-Output System [J], Review of EconomicStudies,1961(28):105–116.
【28】 JoséM.Rueda-Cantuche, Econometric Analysis of European Carbon Dioxide EmissionsBased On Rectangular Supply-Use Tables [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(3):261-280.
【29】 Jose B. Cruz., Raymond R. Tan, Alvin B. Culaba, Jo-Anne Ballacillo, A dynamicInput–Output Model for Nascent Bioenergy Supply Chains [J], Applied Energy,2009(4):86-94.
【30】 Kendrick D., On the Leontief Dynamic Inverse [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1972(86):693–696.
【31】 Koopmans, T. C. Analysis of Production as an Efficient Combination of Activities, in:Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation [M], New York,1951.
【32】 Kop Jansen P., T.ten Raa, The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input–OutputCoefficients Matrices [J], International Economic Review,1990(31):213–227.
【33】 Kuroda, KLEMS in ICPA. Mimeo,2001.
【34】 Kurz H. D., N. Salvadori, The Dynamic Leontief Model and the Theory of EndogenousGrowth [J], Economic Systems Research,2000(2):255–265.
【35】 Lahr M.L., Mesnard L.D., Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: TablesUpdating and Structural Anaysis [J], Economic Systems Research,2004(2):115-134.
【36】 Lars Bohlina and Lars M. Widella, Estimation of commodity-by-commodity input–outputmatrices [J], Economic Systems Research,2006(2).
【37】 Los B., Endogenous Growth and Structural Change in a Dynamic Input-Output Model [J],Economic Systems Research,2001(1):3–34.
【38】 Luenberger D. G., A. Arbel, Singular Dynamic Leontief Systems [J], Econometrica,1977(45):991–995.
【39】 Manfred Lenzen, Aggregation Versus Disaggregation In Input–Output Analysis Of TheEnvironment [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(1):73–89.
【40】 Manfred Lenzena, Maria Cecilia Pinto de Mourab, Arne Geschkea, Keiichiro Kanemotoac,Daniel Dean Morana, A Cycling Method For Constructing Input–Output Table Time Series FromIncomplete Data [J], Economic Systems Research,2012(4):413-432.
【41】 Matthews H.S, L.B Lave, Using Input–Output Analysis for Corporate Benchmarking [J],Benchmarking: An International Journal,2003(10):153–168.
【42】 Matuszewski T., Partly disaggregated rectangular input-output models and their use forthe purposes of large corporation [M], London,1972.
【43】 Marco Percoco, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Lanfranco Senn, Structural ChangeDecomposition through a Global Sensitivity Analysis of Input–Output Models [J], Economic SystemsResearch,2006(2):115-131.
【44】 Matuszewski, T.I., Pitts, P.R, Sawyer J.A., Linear Programming Estimates Of Changes InInput-Coefficients [J], Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1964(2):202-210.
【45】 Meyer U., Why Singularity of Dynamic Leontief Systems Does Not Matter [M], inInput-Output Analysis Volume, Northampton: Edward Elger Publishing,1982.
【46】 Miller R.E., Blair, Input–Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions [M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,2009.
【47】 Morishima M. Prices, Interest and Profits in a Dynamic Leontief System [J], Econometrica,1958(26):358–380.
【48】 Natalia Ustinova, Supply and Use Tables and Input-Output Tables for Russia [J], Paperfor The17th International Input-Output Conference,2008.
【49】 Nicola J. Smith, Garry W. McDonald, Estimation of Symmetric Input-Output Tables: AnExtension to Bholin and Widell [J], Economic Systems Research,2011(23):49–72.
【50】 Oosterhaven J., Junius T., The Solution of Updating or Regionalizing a Matrix with bothPositive and Negative Entries [J], Economic Systems Research,2003(1):87-96.
【51】 Pasinetti, Luigi L., Lectures on the Theory of Production [M], London,1977.
【52】 Peter Ritzmann, Jose M.Rueda-Cantuche, A Consolidated European Union and EuroArea Supply-Use System and Input-Output Tablrs [J], Paper for The18th International Input-OutputConference,2010.
【53】 Piet, Verbiest, Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables in the Netherlands [J], Paper for The19th International Input-Output Conference,2011.
【54】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., Beutel J., Neuwahl F., Mongelli I., Loeschel A., A SymmetricInput-Output Table for EU27: Latest Progress [J], Economic Systems Research,2009(21),59-79.
【55】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., T. ten Raa, Testing the Assumptions Made in the Construction ofInput–Output Tables [J]. Working Paper Series of the IIOA,2009.
【56】 Rueda-Cantuche J.M., T. ten Raa, The Choice of Model in the Construction of IndustryCoefficients Matrices [J], Economic Systems Research,2009(21):363–376.
【57】 Sargan J. D., The Instability Of The Leontief Dynamic Model [J], Econometrica,1958(26):381–392.
【58】 Sargan J. D., Lags And The Stability Of Dynamic Systems: A Reply [J], Econometrica,1961(29):670–673.
【59】 Schumann, Jochen, Input-Output-Analyse [M], Berlin,1968.
【60】 Shannon C.E., A Mathematical Theoty of Communication Bell [J], Systems TechnicalJournal,1948(27):379-423.
【61】 Shrestha N., An Estimation Algorithm of International Input–Output Table: How to Get anUnpublished Year Table [M], Yokohama: Yokohama University,2008.
【62】 Solow R. M., Competitive Valuation in a Dynamic Input-Output System [J], Econometrica,1989(27):30–53.
【63】 Stone, Multiple Classification in Social Accounting [J], Bulletin Institut InternationalStatistical, Vol.1962(3):215-231.
【64】 ten Raa T., J.M.Rueda-Cantuche, The Construction of Input–Output Coefficients Matrix inan Axiomatic Context: Some Further Considerations [J]. Economic Systems Research,2003(15):439–445.
【65】 ten Raa, Thijs, The Economics of Input-Output Analysis [M], Cambridge UniversityPress,2006.
【66】 ten Raa, Dynamic Input-Output Analysis with Distributed Activities [J], Review ofEconomics and Statistics,1986b(68):300–310.
【67】 Thomas Wiedmann, Carbon Footprint and Input–Output Analysis–An Introduction [J],Economic Systems Research,2009(3):175-186.
【68】 Tilanus, C.B., Input-output experiments, The Netherlands1948-1961[M], Rotterdam,1968.
【69】 Tokoyama, K., Y. Murakami, Relative Stability in Two Types Of Dynamic Leontief Models[J], International Economic Review,1972(13):408–415.
【70】 United Nations, The System of National Accounts(2008)[M], New York: United Nationspublication,2008.
【71】 United Nations, The System of National Accounts (1968)[M], New York: United Nationspublication,1968.
【72】 Wassily Leontief, Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of theUnited States [J], The Review of Economids and Statistics,1936(3):105-125.
【73】 Wassily Leontief, Lags And The Stability Of Dynamic Systems [J], Econometrica,1961(29):659–669.
【74】 Wassily Leontief, Input-Output Economics [M], New York.1966.
【75】 Wassily Leontief, Faye Duchin et al, The Impacts of Automation on Employment1963-2000[J], Final Report to the Science Foundation,PRA-8012844,1984.
【76】 Wassily Leontief, Input-Output Economics [M], New York1986.
【77】陈锡康，杨翠红．投入产出技术[M]．北京：科学出版社，2011第1版．
【78】陈锡康，王戈丰，张启江．偏差法—投入产出表平衡调整的新方法[J]．统计研究，1988（2）：41-43．
【79】成定平．浙江扩大消费和出口的产业结构调整方向—基于动态投入产出模型分析[J]．统计科学与实践，2011（4）：23-25．
【80】董承章．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国财政出版社，2000第1版．
【81】范金，万兴．投入产出表和社会核算矩阵更新研究评述[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，2007（5）：151-160．
【82】国家统计局国民经济核算司．2007中国地区投入产出表[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，2011第1版．
【83】贺菊煌．混合工艺假设下投入产出系数推导法[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1988（8）．
【84】胡兆光，谭显东．直接消耗系数的组合更新法研究[J]．统计研究，2008（3）：71-74．
【85】姜超，张金水．考虑税收的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型及其参数设定[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2004（8）：32-37．
【86】李宝瑜．国民经济核算与分析[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1994．
【87】李宝瑜，马克卫．中国社会核算矩阵编制方法研究[J]，统计研究，2011（11）．
【88】李善同．中国宏观经济多部门动态模型(MUDAN)[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1995（1）：19-27．
【89】李秉全．投入产出技术与企业管理现代化[M]．北京：科学出版社，1988．
【90】联合国等．国民经济核算体系（1993）[M]．北京：中国统计出版社，1995．
【91】刘起运．关于投入产出系数结构分析方法的研究[J]．统计研究，2002（2）：40-42．
【92】刘起运，陈璋，苏汝．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006．
【93】刘焕新．一种改进的动态投入产出模型[J]．系统工程，1987（2）：50-54．
【94】马向前，任若恩．中国投入产出序列表外推方法研究[J]．统计研究，2004（4）：31-34．
【95】瓦尔拉斯.纯粹经济学要义或社会财富理论[M].蔡受百译.北京:商务印书馆，1898．
【96】向蓉美．投入产出分析[M]．成都：西南财经大学出版社，2007第1版．
【97】曾五一．关于动态投入产出最优化模型应用的研究[J]．系统工程，1985（5）。
【98】张凤祥．一个容易操作的动态投入产出模型[J]．经济数学，1998（1）：114-119．
【99】张守一，肖志杰．科技投入产出模型研究[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，1991（2）．
【100】张金水．中国六部门可计算非线性动态投入产出模型的平衡增长解[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2000（9）：49-52．
【101】赵新刚，袁晓波，宋建学．含有产出增长率的动态投入产出模型及应用[J]．技术经济，2003（4）：55-56．
【102】钟契夫．钟契夫自选集[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2007．
【103】钟契夫，陈锡康，刘起运．投入产出分析[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1993．