非正规金融视角下的地摊银行问题研究
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摘要
“地摊银行”是一个在金融学说史和金融学教科书中都不曾多见的特定产物,是中越边贸发展的初期人们习惯用现金交易而衍生的一种特有现象。因此,地摊银行问题较少被研究非正规金融的主流学者所关注。本文则在非正规金融理论的视角下,对在中越边境地区大量存在并为边境贸易支付结算的顺利进行发挥了较大作用的地摊银行展开了深入的研究。
在“睦邻、友邻、富邻”待邻之道的指导原则下,中国与周边国家的政治、经贸、文化等各方面的交流不断深入和发展。中国与邻国,尤其是与越南之间双方往来的加强、边境贸易的发展促进了边境地区经济的繁荣。但是由于边境贸易对于支付结算的需求以及正规金融机构金融服务缺失之间矛盾的存在,在中国与部分邻国国家之间的边境地区,诞生了服务于这种需求,替代正规金融机构服务职能的非正规金融机构——地摊银行。尤其是在中越边境地区,地摊银行适应边境贸易发展的要求而诞生,并随着经济和两国形势的变化,业务领域不断的得到拓展和扩大,业务种类不断的增多,业务规模不断的获得新突破。尤其是在越南政府单方面公开承认地摊银行的合法地位,并予以其经营执照允许其合法经营之后,地摊银行更是得到了更大的发展空间。
但是,在现阶段,我国政府相关监管部门并没有认可地摊银行的合法地位。因此,地摊银行便处于一个在越南合法,但是在中国却没有合法身份和地位的这样一个尴尬境地。虽然我国政府没有公开承认地摊银行的合法地位,允许其合法合规经营,但是在实际操作中,由于地摊银行在边境贸易、支付结算、货币兑换、中越汇价决定、人民币跨境流动和国际化中发挥的较大作用,我国政府并没有采取一刀切、全部打压和取缔的严厉措施,而是采取了默许其存在和发展,并允许其提供金融服务的态度。
因此,对地摊银行展开深入的调查和研究,探讨其存在的利弊,研究其存在的必要性,并对地摊银行未来的发展以及如何对地摊银行进行监督管理和规范等提供建议具有巨大的理论和实践意义。本文在总结借鉴国内外众多研究成果的基础上,从八个方面对地摊银行问题进行了分析和研究。
第一章是绪论,主要是对全文进行了整体概括以及前瞻性的说明,包括对研究背景和意义、研究的主要内容、研究的主要方法、研究的结构安排以及主要研究结论和创新点等进行了简单全面的介绍,并对研究地摊银行的相关文献进行了综述。
第二章是有关于非正规金融的理论基础与国际借鉴方面的研究。我们对非正规金融问题的研究现状、研究成果等各方面进行了全面的总括介绍,为后文对归属于非正规金融的地摊银行进行研究打下了理论基础和相关理论铺垫。
第三章对地摊银行产生的历史背景、文化背景和经济背景等各个方面进行了阐述。同时,对地摊银行的发展历史,地摊银行在越南由非法转变为合法的过程和理由进行了分析。同时,对地摊银行存在的危害进行研究,结合相关的案例分析了地摊银行存在的各种弊端和危害,并着重指出了地摊银行的存在利大于弊的结论。对地摊银行存在的危害进行研究并不是否定地摊银行存在的价值,而是在辩证的视角下,对地摊银行有个更科学合理的认识,从而能够吸取经验,趋利避害,能够更好的对地摊银行进行监管并防范和减少地摊银行危害的发生,更好的发挥地摊银行在便利边境贸易支付结算、人民币跨境流通等中的作用。最后,对地摊银行的发展趋势进行了前景展望,得出了地摊银行将会长期存在和发展的初步结论,为进一步对地摊银行展开深入研究奠定了基础。
第四章研究了地摊银行与边境贸易的关系。本章主要研究了中越发展边境贸易的优势、发展历史、现阶段边境贸易的特点、现阶段边境贸易支付结算的现状以及存在的问题等,分析了地摊银行在中越边境贸易支付结算中所发挥的作用。通过分析,本文肯定了地摊银行在便利边民往来,促进边境贸易发展,解决边境贸易支付结算难题等各个方面所发挥的较大的正面作用。
第五章主要是研究中越货币黑市汇价的决定。本章在对黑市汇价决定的相关研究成果进行总结和概述的基础上,利用现代计量方法,实证分析了黑市汇价的决定问题,并研究了地摊银行在中越货币黑市汇价决定中发挥的作用,分析了中越汇价的形成机制,并进一步分析了商业银行定价权旁落的原因。同时,本章尝试构建了一个新的货币兑换交易机制,并希望能够通过此交易机制来形成市场价格。本章研究发现：地摊银行决定的黑市汇价基本上反应了两国货币之间的真实价格,是根据两国货币之间的套算汇价并根据市场对人民币和越南盾的需求情况进行相应浮动所得到的价格。因此对地摊银行操控下的中越货币黑市汇价进行研究,对于人民币汇率的市场化改革也具有一定的借鉴和参考意义。
第六章是关于地摊银行与跨境人民币流通和人民币国际化关系的研究。本文主要分析了地摊银行在跨境人民币流动和人民币国际化中发挥的作用。我们认为：当前,人民币跨境流通和人民币国际化已经取得了巨大的成就,但是毕竟会涉及到货币主权以及涉及铸币税收入等问题,部分国家和地区对人民币跨境流通和人民币国际化存在一定的担忧甚至敌视态度,但是如果利用当年“乒乓外交”一样的智慧,通过民间的途径,比如地摊银行,可以很便捷的避开政治因素,从而能够更好更顺利的促进人民跨境流通、促进人民币国际化的快速发展。
第七章研究了地摊银行的规范和发展。在重点分析了地摊银行存在的必要性、所发挥的重要作用的基础上,对地摊银行的规范办法与未来发展前景进行了分析,并提出了规范地摊银行以及如何对地摊银行进行监督管理的建议,为未来地摊银行的转型以及为政府相关政策的制定提供参考依据。本文认为：正是因为当前边境地区正规金融服务缺失以及相关金融服务需求旺盛才导致了地摊银行获得了飞速的发展。因此,本章提出了规范地摊银行,发挥其积极正面作用,构建服务于边境地区的正规金融服务体系的建议,这样不仅仅可以减弱边境贸易发展对地摊银行的依赖,还可以更好的促进边境地区整体经济的繁荣和发展。
本论文可能的创新点主要有以下三点：
第一,本文第一次从全方位、多角度对地摊银行问题展开研究。地摊银行存在己久,但是对地摊银行的研究很少,即使有部分研究也大多是泛泛而谈,而没有能够深入分析其产生机制,运作机理、汇价决定等比较深入的一些问题。本文在非正规金融研究理论的指导下,首次对地摊银行进行了全方位的剖析和解读,深入分析了地摊银行产生和发展的历史轨迹,并分析了其未来可能的多种发展趋势和方向。本文研究发现,地摊银行的发展存在历史必然性,并在特定的历史阶段能够发挥一定的积极作用,比如其便利人民币跨境流通的作用能够有助于推进人民币的国际化,其在中越货币汇价决定中所起到的主导作用有利于我们研究人民币利率市场化改革的问题等。因此,在了解了地摊银行未来的发展方向的情况下,需要对地摊银行进行规范管理和科学指导,从而促使地摊银行发挥促进边境贸易发展的作用。
第二,本文首次全方位、多角度的论证了地摊银行在边境贸易、货币兑换、汇价决定、人民币跨境流动以及人民币区域化中发挥的巨大作用,以充分的理论依据论证了打击消灭地摊银行是完全没有必要的,提出了最好的措施是对地摊银行进行规范管理,化弊为利,充分发挥地摊银行的作用的建议。并首次提出了设立小额货币兑换交易所,允许地摊银行登记之后进场交易的建议。这有利于解决商业银行在从事边境贸易支付结算时所产生头寸的清算,也有利于对地摊银行进行加强监督管理,同时也有利于构建合理的汇价形成机制。
第三,对于中越货币黑市汇价的形成,大都认为是由地摊银行把持和决定的,但是一直以来,众多的研究学者由于数据缺乏的原因,并没有能够确切的知道地摊银行到底是如何决定汇价的。本文首次以2004年1月至2010年8月之间的中越货币官方套算汇价,中越货币黑市汇价以及中越边境贸易净出口量数据,采用向量误差修正模型(VECM),对这三者之间的关系进行了估计。并进一步进行了Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。研究结果表明,中越货币黑市汇价主要由官方套算汇价决定,并且一定程度上受中越边境贸易净出口量变动的影响,而中越官方套算汇价和黑市汇价对边境贸易净出口都具有显著影响,边境贸易净出口对黑市汇价具有一定程度影响,但是对中越货币官方套算汇价影响不显著。同时由于和商业银行的外汇业务之间竞存在竞争因素,中越货币黑市汇价相比官方套算汇价存在一定的折价现象,这也与一般的外汇黑市汇价存在溢价现象相悖。
"Stall bank" is a specific product which rarely occurs in the history of financial literature and textbook and a special phenomenon derivatived from cash transactions in the early stages of trade between China and Vietnam, therefore, the questions of stall bank are given less attention by informal financial scholars。This paper does some research on the stall bank, which massively plays a great role in the payment and settlement of border trade.
In the guiding principle of building up the amicable, friendly and prosperous neighborliness, China has been unceasingly developing the exchange with its neighboring countries in such fields as politics, economy and trade, and culture. The strengthening development of border trade between China and its neighboring countries, especially with Vietnam, has greatly promoted the prosperity of the borders economically.
Because of the contradictory between the needs of the payments and settlement in border trade and the lack of financial services from formal financial institutions, an informal financial institution, named stall bank, emerges to meet the needs. It is an alternative to service functions of the formal financial institutions.
Stall Bank comes into being in accordance with the development of border trade, especially in Sino-Vietnamese border. Along with changes in economy and Sino-Vietnamese relations, its lines of business have been continuously expanded, its business varieties have been constantly increasing and its business scales have been unceasingly obtaining new breakthroughs. Since the Vietnamese government publicly acknowledged the legitimacy of Stall Bank and granted the business licenses for legal operation, it has got larger development space.
However, the concerned regulatory department of China doesn't admit the legal status of Stall Bank at present. Therefore, Stall Bank is exposed to such an embarrassing situation that it is legal in Vietnam but not lawful in china. Despites that, in practice though, Chinese government doesn't take stern actions to crack them down with "one size fits all" policy, but to give tacit consent to its existence and development and allow them to provide financial services, since the great impact Stall Bank has on border trade, payment and settlement, currency exchange, decision of the exchange rate between China and Vietnam and the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB.
Therefore, it is meaningful both in theory and practice to further investigate and research Stall Bank, discuss its advantages and disadvantages of its existence, study the necessity of its existence, and put forward some suggestions on the future development of Stall Banks and how to supervise and administrate them. Based on the reference and summary of numerous related research achievements both at home and abroad, this paper makes some Analysis And Investigation on Stall Bank from eight aspects in the following chapters.
The first chapter is introduction, which are mainly the general idea and prospective instruction of the full text. summaries the related literature on study of Stall Banks. It contains brief but overall introduction to the background and significance of the research, the main contents and the research approaches, the structure of the paper and the chief conclusion and innovations.
The second chapter looks into non-formal financial issues, which is also the theoretical basis of the research in this paper. A general and inclusive introduction to non-formal financial issues is made in such aspects as research status and research findings, which establishes a theoretical foundation laid for the research of Stall Banks in the chapters that follow.
The third chapter firstly throws lights on the historical background, cultural background and economic background of Stall Banks, Then, the development history of as well as the process and reasons of its transformation from illegal to legal in Vietnam is analyzed. Then this paper deals with the hazards of Stall Banks. With relevant cases, this chapter analyzes the disadvantages and hazards of Stall Banks, and emphatically points out that its advantages outweigh disadvantages. The study on the hazards of Stall Bank is not to deny the value of Stall Banks, but to form a more scientific and rational understanding from the dialectical perspective so as to draw on its advantages and avoid disadvantages effectively supervising stall banks and reducing hazards of Stall Banks to happen, which may result in better roles that Stall Banks play in facilitating the payment and settlement in border trade payment and the RMB cross-border circulation. Finally, this chapter gives an prospect forecast for its development trend, and get preliminary conclusion that Stall Banks will be existing and developing for a long time, which provides an foundation for further study of Stall Banks.
The fourth chapter discusses the relations of Stall Banks and border trade. It focuses on the advantages of developing border trade in Sino-Vietnamese border, the development history, the characteristics of the present border trade, the current situation of payment and settlement in border trade, and its existing problems. Besides, the roles that Stall Bank plays in payment and settlement in border trade are analyzed in this paper. Through the analysis, this paper affirms positive effects that Stall Banks have in all the aspects of facilitating the intercourse among inhabitants of the border area, promoting border trade and solving the problem of payment and settlement in border trade.
The fifth chapter is about the determination of currency exchange rate between China and Vietnam in black market. Based on the overview of related research findings, this chapter empirically analyzes the determining factors of the black market exchange rate with modern metering methods, and discusses the roles Stall Banks play the determination of currency exchange rate between China and Vietnam in black market. In addition, the formation mechanism of Sino-Vietnamese exchange rate and the reason for the pricing rights devolution of commercial banks are observed. At the same time, this chapter attempts to construct a new trading mechanism for currency exchange contributing to the formation of market price. From what have been discussed above, it is found that the exchange rate decided by Stall Banks basically mirrors the real currency price between two countries. It is in fact the cross rate between two countries which fluctuates with the conditions of demands for CNY and VND in the market. Hence the research under the condition that Stall Banks manipulate currency exchange rate on the black market research is meaningful, which is also shed light for RMB exchange rate reform.
The sixth chapter looks into the relationships between Stall Banks and the cross-border circulation as well as internationalization of RMB. This paper mainly analyzes the impact Stall Banks have on the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB. It is believed that though there is great achievement in the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB at present, the problems like currency sovereignty and coins tax revenue have been involved in, which has, to some extent, brought about anxiety even hostility from some countries and regions. Assume that the wit of "ping-pong diplomacy" is employed through the folk approach such as Stall Banks, political factors may be conveniently avoided, thus smoothly promoting nongovernmental cross-border circulation and the rapid development of RMB internationalization.
The seventh chapter deals with The eighth chapter investigates the specification and development of the Stall Bank. Based on the analysis of the necessity of being and the vital roles of Stall Bank has played, this paper analyzes the regulatory approaches and the future prospects of Stall Banks and raises proposals on specifications and supervision of Stall Banks, which provides the reference for the restruction of Stall Banks and relevant policies made by government. This paper believes that it is the lack of formal financial services in border areas, and the needs bloom of relevant services that lead to the rapid development of Stall Banks. Therefore, this chapter makes suggestions of normalizing Stall Bank to play its positive role of constructing formal financial service system in the borders, which can not only weaken the dependence of border trade on Stall Banks but also better promote the overall economic prosperity and development in border regions.
There have three main points of innovations in this paper.
First, this paper is the first to look into the issue of Stall Bank in a comprehensive and multi-angle approach. Few studies focused on Stall Bank though it has been in existence for a long time. Even if some, most is taking in generalities without in-depth analysis in such aspects as its generation mechanism, operation mechanism, exchange rate determination and so on. This paper, under the guidance of the informal financial theory, is the first to analyze and interpret the Stall Bank from a comprehensive perspective, probe into the historical trace of its emergence and development and analyze its possible future development trends and directions. This study found that the development of Stall Bank has its historical inevitability, and also can play a positive role in the particular historical stage. For example, its role of facilitating the RMB cross-border circulation promotes the internationalization of RMB. What's more, its leading role in the determination of Sino-Vietnamese currency exchange is in favor of the study on the reform of marketization of the RMB interest rate. Understanding the future direction of Stall Bank, therefore, standard management and scientific guidance for Stall Bank are necessary, which may contribute to the promotion of border trade development.
Second, through the investigation into the tremendous roles Stall Bank has played in the border trade as well as that in the currency exchange, the exchange rate detemination, the RMB cross-border circulation and RMB regionalization, this article, for the first time, argues the significant rule that Stall Bank has played in a comprehensive and multi-angle approach, demonstrates that attacking or smashing the Stall Bank is absolutely unnecessary with sufficient theoretical foundations. In this paper the best measures are come up with to regulate the Stall Bank with standardized norms, turn disadvantages into advantages, and make full use of the roles of Stall Bank. And it for the first time proposes to establish small currency exchange, allowing the Stall Bank to enter trade after registration. It is in favor of clearing the liquidation which is caused by commercial banks in border trade payments, also strengthening supervision and management of Stall Bank, and constructing a reasonable exchange rate formation mechanism.
Third, for the decision of the black market exchange rate between China and Vietnam, most scholars believe that it is dominated and determined by the stall bank. Because of the lack of the research data, researchers do not know exactly that the stall banks how to determine the exchange rate. Based on the data of official exchange rate, black market exchange rate and net exports of border trade of china and Vietnam, this article uses the vector error correction model(VECM) and analyses the relationship among the three variables.In order to further clarify the relationship between the variables, the article makes the granger causality test, impulse response function test and variance decomposition analysis.
This article shows that the black market exchange rate is decided by the official exchange rate and affected by net exports, the official exchange rate and black market exchange rate have obvious influences, and net exports have certain influences to black market exchange but no obvious influence to the official exchange rate.
在“睦邻、友邻、富邻”待邻之道的指导原则下,中国与周边国家的政治、经贸、文化等各方面的交流不断深入和发展。中国与邻国,尤其是与越南之间双方往来的加强、边境贸易的发展促进了边境地区经济的繁荣。但是由于边境贸易对于支付结算的需求以及正规金融机构金融服务缺失之间矛盾的存在,在中国与部分邻国国家之间的边境地区,诞生了服务于这种需求,替代正规金融机构服务职能的非正规金融机构——地摊银行。尤其是在中越边境地区,地摊银行适应边境贸易发展的要求而诞生,并随着经济和两国形势的变化,业务领域不断的得到拓展和扩大,业务种类不断的增多,业务规模不断的获得新突破。尤其是在越南政府单方面公开承认地摊银行的合法地位,并予以其经营执照允许其合法经营之后,地摊银行更是得到了更大的发展空间。
但是,在现阶段,我国政府相关监管部门并没有认可地摊银行的合法地位。因此,地摊银行便处于一个在越南合法,但是在中国却没有合法身份和地位的这样一个尴尬境地。虽然我国政府没有公开承认地摊银行的合法地位,允许其合法合规经营,但是在实际操作中,由于地摊银行在边境贸易、支付结算、货币兑换、中越汇价决定、人民币跨境流动和国际化中发挥的较大作用,我国政府并没有采取一刀切、全部打压和取缔的严厉措施,而是采取了默许其存在和发展,并允许其提供金融服务的态度。
因此,对地摊银行展开深入的调查和研究,探讨其存在的利弊,研究其存在的必要性,并对地摊银行未来的发展以及如何对地摊银行进行监督管理和规范等提供建议具有巨大的理论和实践意义。本文在总结借鉴国内外众多研究成果的基础上,从八个方面对地摊银行问题进行了分析和研究。
第一章是绪论,主要是对全文进行了整体概括以及前瞻性的说明,包括对研究背景和意义、研究的主要内容、研究的主要方法、研究的结构安排以及主要研究结论和创新点等进行了简单全面的介绍,并对研究地摊银行的相关文献进行了综述。
第二章是有关于非正规金融的理论基础与国际借鉴方面的研究。我们对非正规金融问题的研究现状、研究成果等各方面进行了全面的总括介绍,为后文对归属于非正规金融的地摊银行进行研究打下了理论基础和相关理论铺垫。
第三章对地摊银行产生的历史背景、文化背景和经济背景等各个方面进行了阐述。同时,对地摊银行的发展历史,地摊银行在越南由非法转变为合法的过程和理由进行了分析。同时,对地摊银行存在的危害进行研究,结合相关的案例分析了地摊银行存在的各种弊端和危害,并着重指出了地摊银行的存在利大于弊的结论。对地摊银行存在的危害进行研究并不是否定地摊银行存在的价值,而是在辩证的视角下,对地摊银行有个更科学合理的认识,从而能够吸取经验,趋利避害,能够更好的对地摊银行进行监管并防范和减少地摊银行危害的发生,更好的发挥地摊银行在便利边境贸易支付结算、人民币跨境流通等中的作用。最后,对地摊银行的发展趋势进行了前景展望,得出了地摊银行将会长期存在和发展的初步结论,为进一步对地摊银行展开深入研究奠定了基础。
第四章研究了地摊银行与边境贸易的关系。本章主要研究了中越发展边境贸易的优势、发展历史、现阶段边境贸易的特点、现阶段边境贸易支付结算的现状以及存在的问题等,分析了地摊银行在中越边境贸易支付结算中所发挥的作用。通过分析,本文肯定了地摊银行在便利边民往来,促进边境贸易发展,解决边境贸易支付结算难题等各个方面所发挥的较大的正面作用。
第五章主要是研究中越货币黑市汇价的决定。本章在对黑市汇价决定的相关研究成果进行总结和概述的基础上,利用现代计量方法,实证分析了黑市汇价的决定问题,并研究了地摊银行在中越货币黑市汇价决定中发挥的作用,分析了中越汇价的形成机制,并进一步分析了商业银行定价权旁落的原因。同时,本章尝试构建了一个新的货币兑换交易机制,并希望能够通过此交易机制来形成市场价格。本章研究发现：地摊银行决定的黑市汇价基本上反应了两国货币之间的真实价格,是根据两国货币之间的套算汇价并根据市场对人民币和越南盾的需求情况进行相应浮动所得到的价格。因此对地摊银行操控下的中越货币黑市汇价进行研究,对于人民币汇率的市场化改革也具有一定的借鉴和参考意义。
第六章是关于地摊银行与跨境人民币流通和人民币国际化关系的研究。本文主要分析了地摊银行在跨境人民币流动和人民币国际化中发挥的作用。我们认为：当前,人民币跨境流通和人民币国际化已经取得了巨大的成就,但是毕竟会涉及到货币主权以及涉及铸币税收入等问题,部分国家和地区对人民币跨境流通和人民币国际化存在一定的担忧甚至敌视态度,但是如果利用当年“乒乓外交”一样的智慧,通过民间的途径,比如地摊银行,可以很便捷的避开政治因素,从而能够更好更顺利的促进人民跨境流通、促进人民币国际化的快速发展。
第七章研究了地摊银行的规范和发展。在重点分析了地摊银行存在的必要性、所发挥的重要作用的基础上,对地摊银行的规范办法与未来发展前景进行了分析,并提出了规范地摊银行以及如何对地摊银行进行监督管理的建议,为未来地摊银行的转型以及为政府相关政策的制定提供参考依据。本文认为：正是因为当前边境地区正规金融服务缺失以及相关金融服务需求旺盛才导致了地摊银行获得了飞速的发展。因此,本章提出了规范地摊银行,发挥其积极正面作用,构建服务于边境地区的正规金融服务体系的建议,这样不仅仅可以减弱边境贸易发展对地摊银行的依赖,还可以更好的促进边境地区整体经济的繁荣和发展。
本论文可能的创新点主要有以下三点：
第一,本文第一次从全方位、多角度对地摊银行问题展开研究。地摊银行存在己久,但是对地摊银行的研究很少,即使有部分研究也大多是泛泛而谈,而没有能够深入分析其产生机制,运作机理、汇价决定等比较深入的一些问题。本文在非正规金融研究理论的指导下,首次对地摊银行进行了全方位的剖析和解读,深入分析了地摊银行产生和发展的历史轨迹,并分析了其未来可能的多种发展趋势和方向。本文研究发现,地摊银行的发展存在历史必然性,并在特定的历史阶段能够发挥一定的积极作用,比如其便利人民币跨境流通的作用能够有助于推进人民币的国际化,其在中越货币汇价决定中所起到的主导作用有利于我们研究人民币利率市场化改革的问题等。因此,在了解了地摊银行未来的发展方向的情况下,需要对地摊银行进行规范管理和科学指导,从而促使地摊银行发挥促进边境贸易发展的作用。
第二,本文首次全方位、多角度的论证了地摊银行在边境贸易、货币兑换、汇价决定、人民币跨境流动以及人民币区域化中发挥的巨大作用,以充分的理论依据论证了打击消灭地摊银行是完全没有必要的,提出了最好的措施是对地摊银行进行规范管理,化弊为利,充分发挥地摊银行的作用的建议。并首次提出了设立小额货币兑换交易所,允许地摊银行登记之后进场交易的建议。这有利于解决商业银行在从事边境贸易支付结算时所产生头寸的清算,也有利于对地摊银行进行加强监督管理,同时也有利于构建合理的汇价形成机制。
第三,对于中越货币黑市汇价的形成,大都认为是由地摊银行把持和决定的,但是一直以来,众多的研究学者由于数据缺乏的原因,并没有能够确切的知道地摊银行到底是如何决定汇价的。本文首次以2004年1月至2010年8月之间的中越货币官方套算汇价,中越货币黑市汇价以及中越边境贸易净出口量数据,采用向量误差修正模型(VECM),对这三者之间的关系进行了估计。并进一步进行了Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。研究结果表明,中越货币黑市汇价主要由官方套算汇价决定,并且一定程度上受中越边境贸易净出口量变动的影响,而中越官方套算汇价和黑市汇价对边境贸易净出口都具有显著影响,边境贸易净出口对黑市汇价具有一定程度影响,但是对中越货币官方套算汇价影响不显著。同时由于和商业银行的外汇业务之间竞存在竞争因素,中越货币黑市汇价相比官方套算汇价存在一定的折价现象,这也与一般的外汇黑市汇价存在溢价现象相悖。
"Stall bank" is a specific product which rarely occurs in the history of financial literature and textbook and a special phenomenon derivatived from cash transactions in the early stages of trade between China and Vietnam, therefore, the questions of stall bank are given less attention by informal financial scholars。This paper does some research on the stall bank, which massively plays a great role in the payment and settlement of border trade.
In the guiding principle of building up the amicable, friendly and prosperous neighborliness, China has been unceasingly developing the exchange with its neighboring countries in such fields as politics, economy and trade, and culture. The strengthening development of border trade between China and its neighboring countries, especially with Vietnam, has greatly promoted the prosperity of the borders economically.
Because of the contradictory between the needs of the payments and settlement in border trade and the lack of financial services from formal financial institutions, an informal financial institution, named stall bank, emerges to meet the needs. It is an alternative to service functions of the formal financial institutions.
Stall Bank comes into being in accordance with the development of border trade, especially in Sino-Vietnamese border. Along with changes in economy and Sino-Vietnamese relations, its lines of business have been continuously expanded, its business varieties have been constantly increasing and its business scales have been unceasingly obtaining new breakthroughs. Since the Vietnamese government publicly acknowledged the legitimacy of Stall Bank and granted the business licenses for legal operation, it has got larger development space.
However, the concerned regulatory department of China doesn't admit the legal status of Stall Bank at present. Therefore, Stall Bank is exposed to such an embarrassing situation that it is legal in Vietnam but not lawful in china. Despites that, in practice though, Chinese government doesn't take stern actions to crack them down with "one size fits all" policy, but to give tacit consent to its existence and development and allow them to provide financial services, since the great impact Stall Bank has on border trade, payment and settlement, currency exchange, decision of the exchange rate between China and Vietnam and the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB.
Therefore, it is meaningful both in theory and practice to further investigate and research Stall Bank, discuss its advantages and disadvantages of its existence, study the necessity of its existence, and put forward some suggestions on the future development of Stall Banks and how to supervise and administrate them. Based on the reference and summary of numerous related research achievements both at home and abroad, this paper makes some Analysis And Investigation on Stall Bank from eight aspects in the following chapters.
The first chapter is introduction, which are mainly the general idea and prospective instruction of the full text. summaries the related literature on study of Stall Banks. It contains brief but overall introduction to the background and significance of the research, the main contents and the research approaches, the structure of the paper and the chief conclusion and innovations.
The second chapter looks into non-formal financial issues, which is also the theoretical basis of the research in this paper. A general and inclusive introduction to non-formal financial issues is made in such aspects as research status and research findings, which establishes a theoretical foundation laid for the research of Stall Banks in the chapters that follow.
The third chapter firstly throws lights on the historical background, cultural background and economic background of Stall Banks, Then, the development history of as well as the process and reasons of its transformation from illegal to legal in Vietnam is analyzed. Then this paper deals with the hazards of Stall Banks. With relevant cases, this chapter analyzes the disadvantages and hazards of Stall Banks, and emphatically points out that its advantages outweigh disadvantages. The study on the hazards of Stall Bank is not to deny the value of Stall Banks, but to form a more scientific and rational understanding from the dialectical perspective so as to draw on its advantages and avoid disadvantages effectively supervising stall banks and reducing hazards of Stall Banks to happen, which may result in better roles that Stall Banks play in facilitating the payment and settlement in border trade payment and the RMB cross-border circulation. Finally, this chapter gives an prospect forecast for its development trend, and get preliminary conclusion that Stall Banks will be existing and developing for a long time, which provides an foundation for further study of Stall Banks.
The fourth chapter discusses the relations of Stall Banks and border trade. It focuses on the advantages of developing border trade in Sino-Vietnamese border, the development history, the characteristics of the present border trade, the current situation of payment and settlement in border trade, and its existing problems. Besides, the roles that Stall Bank plays in payment and settlement in border trade are analyzed in this paper. Through the analysis, this paper affirms positive effects that Stall Banks have in all the aspects of facilitating the intercourse among inhabitants of the border area, promoting border trade and solving the problem of payment and settlement in border trade.
The fifth chapter is about the determination of currency exchange rate between China and Vietnam in black market. Based on the overview of related research findings, this chapter empirically analyzes the determining factors of the black market exchange rate with modern metering methods, and discusses the roles Stall Banks play the determination of currency exchange rate between China and Vietnam in black market. In addition, the formation mechanism of Sino-Vietnamese exchange rate and the reason for the pricing rights devolution of commercial banks are observed. At the same time, this chapter attempts to construct a new trading mechanism for currency exchange contributing to the formation of market price. From what have been discussed above, it is found that the exchange rate decided by Stall Banks basically mirrors the real currency price between two countries. It is in fact the cross rate between two countries which fluctuates with the conditions of demands for CNY and VND in the market. Hence the research under the condition that Stall Banks manipulate currency exchange rate on the black market research is meaningful, which is also shed light for RMB exchange rate reform.
The sixth chapter looks into the relationships between Stall Banks and the cross-border circulation as well as internationalization of RMB. This paper mainly analyzes the impact Stall Banks have on the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB. It is believed that though there is great achievement in the cross-border circulation and internationalization of RMB at present, the problems like currency sovereignty and coins tax revenue have been involved in, which has, to some extent, brought about anxiety even hostility from some countries and regions. Assume that the wit of "ping-pong diplomacy" is employed through the folk approach such as Stall Banks, political factors may be conveniently avoided, thus smoothly promoting nongovernmental cross-border circulation and the rapid development of RMB internationalization.
The seventh chapter deals with The eighth chapter investigates the specification and development of the Stall Bank. Based on the analysis of the necessity of being and the vital roles of Stall Bank has played, this paper analyzes the regulatory approaches and the future prospects of Stall Banks and raises proposals on specifications and supervision of Stall Banks, which provides the reference for the restruction of Stall Banks and relevant policies made by government. This paper believes that it is the lack of formal financial services in border areas, and the needs bloom of relevant services that lead to the rapid development of Stall Banks. Therefore, this chapter makes suggestions of normalizing Stall Bank to play its positive role of constructing formal financial service system in the borders, which can not only weaken the dependence of border trade on Stall Banks but also better promote the overall economic prosperity and development in border regions.
There have three main points of innovations in this paper.
First, this paper is the first to look into the issue of Stall Bank in a comprehensive and multi-angle approach. Few studies focused on Stall Bank though it has been in existence for a long time. Even if some, most is taking in generalities without in-depth analysis in such aspects as its generation mechanism, operation mechanism, exchange rate determination and so on. This paper, under the guidance of the informal financial theory, is the first to analyze and interpret the Stall Bank from a comprehensive perspective, probe into the historical trace of its emergence and development and analyze its possible future development trends and directions. This study found that the development of Stall Bank has its historical inevitability, and also can play a positive role in the particular historical stage. For example, its role of facilitating the RMB cross-border circulation promotes the internationalization of RMB. What's more, its leading role in the determination of Sino-Vietnamese currency exchange is in favor of the study on the reform of marketization of the RMB interest rate. Understanding the future direction of Stall Bank, therefore, standard management and scientific guidance for Stall Bank are necessary, which may contribute to the promotion of border trade development.
Second, through the investigation into the tremendous roles Stall Bank has played in the border trade as well as that in the currency exchange, the exchange rate detemination, the RMB cross-border circulation and RMB regionalization, this article, for the first time, argues the significant rule that Stall Bank has played in a comprehensive and multi-angle approach, demonstrates that attacking or smashing the Stall Bank is absolutely unnecessary with sufficient theoretical foundations. In this paper the best measures are come up with to regulate the Stall Bank with standardized norms, turn disadvantages into advantages, and make full use of the roles of Stall Bank. And it for the first time proposes to establish small currency exchange, allowing the Stall Bank to enter trade after registration. It is in favor of clearing the liquidation which is caused by commercial banks in border trade payments, also strengthening supervision and management of Stall Bank, and constructing a reasonable exchange rate formation mechanism.
Third, for the decision of the black market exchange rate between China and Vietnam, most scholars believe that it is dominated and determined by the stall bank. Because of the lack of the research data, researchers do not know exactly that the stall banks how to determine the exchange rate. Based on the data of official exchange rate, black market exchange rate and net exports of border trade of china and Vietnam, this article uses the vector error correction model(VECM) and analyses the relationship among the three variables.In order to further clarify the relationship between the variables, the article makes the granger causality test, impulse response function test and variance decomposition analysis.
This article shows that the black market exchange rate is decided by the official exchange rate and affected by net exports, the official exchange rate and black market exchange rate have obvious influences, and net exports have certain influences to black market exchange but no obvious influence to the official exchange rate.
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