农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产温室气体排放的影响研究
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摘要
近年来,贸易与环境问题日渐成为学术界的热点。国内外学术界对贸易自由化所产生的环境后果,一些学者持消极观点,认为贸易自由化政策的实施将直接导致环境的恶化；另一些学者则认为尽管贸易自由化在短期内的环境效应是消极的,但随着时间的推移,贸易自由化将对环境产生长期的积极影响。
对于中国而言,农产品自由贸易对农业的总体影响是利大于弊(黄季焜等,2005a；刘宇等,2009；黄季焜等,2005b),促进自由贸易符合中国的国家利益和长远利益。过去几十年,中国在推进农产品自由贸易的过程中做出了巨大的努力,在放宽对进出口市场准入的同时,还采取了一系列措施以消减关税。在1978-2008年间,中国农产品贸易额由1978年的61亿美元增加到2008年的992.1亿美元,年均增长率为9.7%。然而,在农产品对外贸易取得巨大进展,带动国内农业经济发展的同时,农业作为温室气体的排放大户,中国农业生产所带来的温室气体排放问题也日益引起人们的关注。
目前,普遍的共识是中国小麦、玉米、棉花、大豆等土地密集型农产品的生产已经不具备明显的比较优势,而蔬菜、肉类等劳动密集型农产品的生产则具备明显的比较优势(刘剑文,2004；黄季焜等,2005a；黄季焜等,2005b；刘宇等,2009)。表现为小麦、玉米、棉花、大豆等农产品的国内生产规模缩减,而蔬菜、肉类等农产品的国内生产规模扩张。由于土地密集型农作物与劳动密集型农作物,以及不同畜产品之间农业生产过程中的温室气体排放量存在很大差异。因此,农产品自由贸易会通过影响中国农产品的对外贸易结构,进而影响国内资源的配置和农业生产结构的改善(赵慧娥,2005；杜晓君等,1998；黄季焜等,1999),最终影响中国国内农业生产的温室气体排放量。那么,近几十年来,随着改革开放不断深入、贸易规模不断扩大,中国农业生产的温室气体排放量究竟有何变化,变化趋势如何；农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响机理如何；中国主要农产品进出口贸易的温室气体排放效应如何；农产品贸易开放度的变化是否也会显著影响中国农业生产的温室气体排放量。对于这些问题的回答,有助于我们认清中国农业生产的温室气体减排压力,以及选择符合我国国情的农业生产减排和农产品对外贸易战略,实现中国农产品对外贸易与农业生态环境的和谐、可持续发展。因此,本研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。
本研究的总体目标是考察农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。围绕这一目标,在理论分析农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响机理基础上,首先,廓清中国农产品进出口贸易格局及结构演变趋势；其次,根据IPCC (2006)、FAO (2004)等提供的的温室气体排放系数,构建温室气体排放量的测度模型,测算全国及分地区的农业生产的温室气体排放量；再次,借鉴Grossman等(1991)、Chai (2002)和李怀政(2010)的研究方法,实证分析中国农产品进出口贸易的温室气体排放效应；最后,通过改进Grossman和Krueger (1995)提出的经济增长与环境关系的计量模型,引入贸易开放度和农业环境变量,基于省际面板数据,实证分析农产品贸易开放度对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。本研究的主要结论如下：
1.90年代以来,中国农产品进出口贸易格局及结构发生了显著变化。表现为：农产品进出口贸易在商品对外贸易中的地位不断下降,创汇能力明显减弱；产品结构显现出口以蔬菜、水果等劳动密集型农产品为主,进口以棉花、大豆等土地密集型农产品为主的态势；进出口市场集中度不断降低,市场分布日趋合理和多元化；进出口贸易的国内区域集中度较高；进出口贸易的主体结构向多元化转变,主体结构日趋合理。
2.1991-2008年间,中国农业生产的温室气体排放量呈递增趋势,而且地区分布不均。具体而言：一是,就种植业而言,水稻的CH4排放量呈下降趋势,从1991年的999.50万吨下降到2008年的931.44万吨；而同期间的N2O和C02排放量却逐年升高,N20排放量从1991年的34.67万吨上升到2008年的48.74万吨,C02排放量从1991年的4019.48万吨增加到2008年的7785.87万吨。二是,畜牧业CH4和N20排放量均呈先升后降的趋势。CH4和N2O排放量分别从1991年的765.53万吨、35.32万吨上升到2006年的1111.43万吨、55.93万吨。此后,它们又分别下降到2008年的900.74万吨、46.90万吨。三是,农业生产的温室气体排放的结构,呈现种植业所占份额不断缩减、畜牧业所占份额不断递增的趋势。四是,农业生产的温室气体排放的区域集中度较高,排放的重点区域呈现向中西部和经济欠发达地区集中的趋势。
3.中国主要进出口农产品的温室气体排放效应分解结果如下：(1)就结构效应而言,1991-2008年间,由于农产品进出口份额的变化,共减排温室气体58.36万吨C02当量,表明中国农产品对外贸易结构的优化呈现显著的温室气体排放负效应。(2)就技术效应而言,由于农业生产的技术进步速度缓慢,1991-2008年间,中国农产品的出口贸易仅减排温室气体0.09万吨C02当量,表明技术进步的减排效果并不明显；同时期的中国农产品进口贸易少减排温室气体4.55万吨CO2当量。因此,整体而言,中国农产品对外贸易因技术进步速度缓慢累计少减排温室气体4.46万吨CO2当量,表明中国农产品对外贸易对国内温室气体排放呈现显著的技术正效应。(3)就规模效应而言,1991-2008年间,中国农产品出口规模扩大引致的温室气体排放量大幅增加,累计增加温室气体排放155.78万吨CO2当量；与此同时,中国农产品进口规模扩大引致的温室气体减排量也大幅增加,累计减排温室气体260.76万吨CO2当量。因此,中国农产品对外贸易的规模扩大累积净减排温室气体104.98万吨CO2当量,表明农产品对外贸易对国内温室气体排放呈现显著的规模负效应。
4.农产品贸易开放度对中国农业生产的不同温室气体排放品种的影响不同。具体而言：(1)农产品出口导向率和进口渗透率对农业生产的CO2排放量影响显著。农产品出口导向率的提升会增加国内农业生产的CO2排放量,而进口渗透率的提升则会减少国内农业生产的C02排放量；然而,农产品的贸易开放度对中国农业生产的CH4和N20排放量的影响并不明显。(2)中国农村实际收入与国内农业生产的温室气体排放量呈现倒U型关系。表明当农村收入水平较低时,为增加收入水平,农业生产者会通过提高农业生产规模、增加农业生产要素投入等手段,即增加化肥、农药等使用量和畜牧业生产规模,从而增加农业生产的温室气体排放量；当收入水平达到一定程度时,人们的环境保护意识会不断增强,要求政府制定更严格的环境保护措施,促使农业生产者加速技术革新,采用更低碳、环保的农业生产技术,从而有利于减少农业生产的温室气体排放量。
本研究的可能创新之处在于：一是,构建了中国农业生产的温室气体排放量测算模型,并利用相对比较合理的测算指标,初步测算了1991-2008年中国及地区农业生产的温室气体排放量,为后人的研究提供一定的借鉴和参考；二是,将Grossman等(1991)最初针对工业品贸易提出的对外贸易的环境效应引入农产品贸易,并借助其理论分析框架,从理论和实证两个方面,分析了农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。
本研究的不足在于：一是,受研究条件制约,未能获得农作物的温室气体排放系数的时间序列数据,这可能会影响本文测算结果的可信度。二是,由于缺少农作物各品种的碳汇系数,未考虑其通过光合作用所吸收的C02排放量,可能会高估中国农业生产的温室气体排放量。三是,本文假定我国进口农产品与国内生产的同类农产品的温室气体排放强度相同,这也会影响本文的实证结果。
In recent years, trade and environmental issues are becoming a hot topic in academia. The environmental consequences of trade liberalization in the domestic and international academic, some scholars hold a pessimistic view that the implementation of trade liberalization policies will directly lead to deterioration of the environment; some scholars believe that the environmental effects of trade liberalization in the short term is negative, but over time, trade liberalization to the environment long-term positive impact.
For China, the overall impact of free trade of agricultural products on agriculture is better than harm (J. k Huang et al,2005a; Liu Y et al,2009; J. k Huang et al,2005b), promote free trade in line with China's national interests and long-term interests. In the past few decades, China has made tremendous efforts in the process of promoting free trade of agricultural products, not only in relaxation of the import and export market access, but also adopted a series of measures to mitigate the tariff. During1978-2008, China's agricultural trade has increased from$6.1billion in1978to$99.21billion in2008, and the average annual growth rate is9.7%. However, made great progress in agricultural foreign trade, and promoted development of the domestic agricultural economy, at the same time, agriculture as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas emissions from the Chinese agricultural production brought about a cause for concern increasingly.
At present, the general consensus is the production of Chinese wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other land-intensive agricultural products didn't have a clear comparative advantage, while the production of vegetables, meat and other labor-intensive agricultural products are with a clear comparative advantage (J. w Liu,2004; J. k Huang et al,2005a; J. k Huang et al,2005b; Liu Y, et al,2009). Performance of reducing the domestic production scale of wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products, expansion of domestic production scale of vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. Due to greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production process is very different between land-intensive crops and labor-intensive crops, and among of livestock products. Thus, free trade of agricultural products will affect the foreign trade structure of China's agricultural products, and thus affect the domestic resource configuration and the structure of agricultural production to improve (H. E Zhao,2005; X. J Du et al,1998; J. k Huang et al,1999), and ultimately impact the greenhouse gas emissions of domestic agricultural production in China. So, in recent decades, with deepening of reform and opening up, and trade have been expanding, what changes and trends of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. What affect mechanism of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in international market, what greenhouse gas emissions effects of the main import and export agricultural production in China. Whether the change of agricultural trade openness will also affect the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production? For answers to these questions will help us to recognize the greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure of agricultural production in China, and to select strategies of reducing the greenhouse gas emission of agricultural production and foreign trade of agricultural products in line with our national conditions, and to achieve harmonious and sustainable development between Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products and agro-ecological environment. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical and practical value.
The overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Around this goal, the author on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism, that is agricultural products in international market to the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Firstly, depicts the evolution of trade patterns and structure of foreign trade in China's agricultural products. Secondly, estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions on the national and sub-regional agricultural production, according to the greenhouse gas emission factors provide by IPCC (2006) and FAO (2004), and the measure of greenhouse gas emissions model. Thirdly, empirical analysis of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions of foreign trade in China's agricultural products, by learning from Grossman (1991), Chai (2002) and H.Z Li (2010). Finally, empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural trade openness to the greenhouse gas emissions of China's agricultural production, by improving the econometric Model of economic growth and environmental relations proposed by Grossman&Krueger (1995), introducing the variable of trade openness and agriculture environment, and basing on the inter-provincial panel data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
1. Since the1990s, there are a significant change of the trade patterns&structure of foreign trade in China's agricultural products. Performance:A declining status of the foreign trade in Chinese agricultural products in foreign trade goods in China, foreign exchange earning capacity is significantly diminished. Products structure appeared the situation of mainly exports vegetables, fruits&other labor-intensive agricultural products, and imports cotton, soybeans&other land-intensive agricultural products. Import&export market concentration continue to lower, the market is becoming more rational distribution and diversification. The concentration of import&export trade in the domestic areas is high degree. A shift of the main structure of import&export trade to diversify, the main structure is becoming more rational.
2. During1991-2008, the greenhouse gas emissions of China's agricultural production show an increasing trend and an uneven regional distribution. In particular:Firstly, for farming, the amount of CH4emissions in rice procuction has declined, from9.3144million tons in1991down to9.995million tons in2008; and at the same period the amount of N2O and CO2emissions increased year by year, the amount of N2O emissions from346,700tons in1991rose to487,400tons in2008, the amount of CO2emissions from40,194,800tons in1991to77,858,700tons in2008. Secondly, the amount of CH4and N2O emissions in livestock production showed a "∩" trend. The amount of CH4and N2O emissions respectively from7.6553million tons and353.2thousand tons in1991rose to11,114,300tons and559,300tons in2006. Since then, they were respectively down to9.0074million tons and469,000tons in2008. Thirdly, the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production shows the shrinking trend of farming but the increasing trend of livestock production. Fourthly, the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has a high regional degree, and the key emissions areas shows a concentration trends to the less developed and Midwest areas in China.
3. China's main import and export of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions effects of the decomposition results are as follows:(1) For the structure effect, during1991-2008, due to the share changes of import&export of agricultural products, total greenhouse gas emission has reduced583,600tons CO2equivalents, indicating that the optimization of foreign trade structure in China's agricultural products presents a significant negative effect to greenhouse gas emissions.(2) For the technical effect, during1991-2008, due to the technological progress of agricultural production is slow, the exports of Chinese agricultural products has only reduced greenhouse gas emissions900tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the technological progress is not obvious. At the same time period, the imports of Chinese agricultural products less reduced greenhouse gas emissions45,500tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, in overall terms, the Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products accumulated less reduced greenhouse gas emissions44,600tons CO2equivalent, due to the slow pace of technological progress, indicating that China's foreign trade in agricultural products presents a significant technical positive effect to domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.(3) For the scale effect, during1991-2008, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has a substantial increase caused by export expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative increased greenhouse gas emissions1.5578million tons CO2equivalent. At the same time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reducted are also a significant increase caused by the import expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative reduced greenhouse gas emissions2.6076million tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, due to the scale of China's foreign trade in agricultural products expanded, cumulative net reducted greenhouse gases1.0498million tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products presents a significant scale negative effects on domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.
4. The trade openness of agricultural products on different varieties of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has different effects. In particular:Firstly, for the amount of CO2emissions in Chinese agricultural production, the agricultural export-oriented rate and import penetration influence is significant. Agricultural export-oriented rate increase will increase domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production, while import penetration enhancement will reduce domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production; but for the CH4and N2O emissions of Chinese agricultural production, the trade openness influence is not significant. Secondly, the relationship of the actual income in Chinese rural area and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in domestic agricultural production showing a inverted "U" shaped, indicating that when the income level is lower in rural areas, in order to increase income, agricultural producers by increasing the scale of agricultural production, increase factors inputs and other means of agricultural production, that is to increase the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc and to expand the production scale of livestock, thereby increasing the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. When the income reaches a certain level, people's awareness of environmental protection growing, asking the Government to introduce more stringent environmental protection measures to promote agricultural producers to accelerate technological innovation, and to use more low-carbon or environmental friendly agricultural production technologies, so helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production.
In this study, the possibility innovations are as follows:Firstly, build a calculation model of greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China, and take advantage of the relatively reasonable estimates indicators; preliminary estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in national and regional of China during1991-2008, providing a reference for future generations. Secondly, Grossman et al (1991) originally proposed the environmental effects of industrial products foreign trade used to the agricultural products foreign trade, and with its theoretical framework from both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China.
The lacks of this study are as follows:Firstly, subject to study conditions restricting could not get a time series data of the greenhouse gas emission factors of crop varieties, which may affect the credibility of calculation results in this article. Secondly, due to lack of the carbon sink factors of crop varieties, didn't take into the amount of CO2absorbed through photosynthesis, and may overestimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in China's agricultural production. Thirdly, assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the imported agricultural products and the agricultural products by domestic production are the same; this will also affect the empirical results.
对于中国而言,农产品自由贸易对农业的总体影响是利大于弊(黄季焜等,2005a；刘宇等,2009；黄季焜等,2005b),促进自由贸易符合中国的国家利益和长远利益。过去几十年,中国在推进农产品自由贸易的过程中做出了巨大的努力,在放宽对进出口市场准入的同时,还采取了一系列措施以消减关税。在1978-2008年间,中国农产品贸易额由1978年的61亿美元增加到2008年的992.1亿美元,年均增长率为9.7%。然而,在农产品对外贸易取得巨大进展,带动国内农业经济发展的同时,农业作为温室气体的排放大户,中国农业生产所带来的温室气体排放问题也日益引起人们的关注。
目前,普遍的共识是中国小麦、玉米、棉花、大豆等土地密集型农产品的生产已经不具备明显的比较优势,而蔬菜、肉类等劳动密集型农产品的生产则具备明显的比较优势(刘剑文,2004；黄季焜等,2005a；黄季焜等,2005b；刘宇等,2009)。表现为小麦、玉米、棉花、大豆等农产品的国内生产规模缩减,而蔬菜、肉类等农产品的国内生产规模扩张。由于土地密集型农作物与劳动密集型农作物,以及不同畜产品之间农业生产过程中的温室气体排放量存在很大差异。因此,农产品自由贸易会通过影响中国农产品的对外贸易结构,进而影响国内资源的配置和农业生产结构的改善(赵慧娥,2005；杜晓君等,1998；黄季焜等,1999),最终影响中国国内农业生产的温室气体排放量。那么,近几十年来,随着改革开放不断深入、贸易规模不断扩大,中国农业生产的温室气体排放量究竟有何变化,变化趋势如何；农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响机理如何；中国主要农产品进出口贸易的温室气体排放效应如何；农产品贸易开放度的变化是否也会显著影响中国农业生产的温室气体排放量。对于这些问题的回答,有助于我们认清中国农业生产的温室气体减排压力,以及选择符合我国国情的农业生产减排和农产品对外贸易战略,实现中国农产品对外贸易与农业生态环境的和谐、可持续发展。因此,本研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。
本研究的总体目标是考察农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。围绕这一目标,在理论分析农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响机理基础上,首先,廓清中国农产品进出口贸易格局及结构演变趋势；其次,根据IPCC (2006)、FAO (2004)等提供的的温室气体排放系数,构建温室气体排放量的测度模型,测算全国及分地区的农业生产的温室气体排放量；再次,借鉴Grossman等(1991)、Chai (2002)和李怀政(2010)的研究方法,实证分析中国农产品进出口贸易的温室气体排放效应；最后,通过改进Grossman和Krueger (1995)提出的经济增长与环境关系的计量模型,引入贸易开放度和农业环境变量,基于省际面板数据,实证分析农产品贸易开放度对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。本研究的主要结论如下：
1.90年代以来,中国农产品进出口贸易格局及结构发生了显著变化。表现为：农产品进出口贸易在商品对外贸易中的地位不断下降,创汇能力明显减弱；产品结构显现出口以蔬菜、水果等劳动密集型农产品为主,进口以棉花、大豆等土地密集型农产品为主的态势；进出口市场集中度不断降低,市场分布日趋合理和多元化；进出口贸易的国内区域集中度较高；进出口贸易的主体结构向多元化转变,主体结构日趋合理。
2.1991-2008年间,中国农业生产的温室气体排放量呈递增趋势,而且地区分布不均。具体而言：一是,就种植业而言,水稻的CH4排放量呈下降趋势,从1991年的999.50万吨下降到2008年的931.44万吨；而同期间的N2O和C02排放量却逐年升高,N20排放量从1991年的34.67万吨上升到2008年的48.74万吨,C02排放量从1991年的4019.48万吨增加到2008年的7785.87万吨。二是,畜牧业CH4和N20排放量均呈先升后降的趋势。CH4和N2O排放量分别从1991年的765.53万吨、35.32万吨上升到2006年的1111.43万吨、55.93万吨。此后,它们又分别下降到2008年的900.74万吨、46.90万吨。三是,农业生产的温室气体排放的结构,呈现种植业所占份额不断缩减、畜牧业所占份额不断递增的趋势。四是,农业生产的温室气体排放的区域集中度较高,排放的重点区域呈现向中西部和经济欠发达地区集中的趋势。
3.中国主要进出口农产品的温室气体排放效应分解结果如下：(1)就结构效应而言,1991-2008年间,由于农产品进出口份额的变化,共减排温室气体58.36万吨C02当量,表明中国农产品对外贸易结构的优化呈现显著的温室气体排放负效应。(2)就技术效应而言,由于农业生产的技术进步速度缓慢,1991-2008年间,中国农产品的出口贸易仅减排温室气体0.09万吨C02当量,表明技术进步的减排效果并不明显；同时期的中国农产品进口贸易少减排温室气体4.55万吨CO2当量。因此,整体而言,中国农产品对外贸易因技术进步速度缓慢累计少减排温室气体4.46万吨CO2当量,表明中国农产品对外贸易对国内温室气体排放呈现显著的技术正效应。(3)就规模效应而言,1991-2008年间,中国农产品出口规模扩大引致的温室气体排放量大幅增加,累计增加温室气体排放155.78万吨CO2当量；与此同时,中国农产品进口规模扩大引致的温室气体减排量也大幅增加,累计减排温室气体260.76万吨CO2当量。因此,中国农产品对外贸易的规模扩大累积净减排温室气体104.98万吨CO2当量,表明农产品对外贸易对国内温室气体排放呈现显著的规模负效应。
4.农产品贸易开放度对中国农业生产的不同温室气体排放品种的影响不同。具体而言：(1)农产品出口导向率和进口渗透率对农业生产的CO2排放量影响显著。农产品出口导向率的提升会增加国内农业生产的CO2排放量,而进口渗透率的提升则会减少国内农业生产的C02排放量；然而,农产品的贸易开放度对中国农业生产的CH4和N20排放量的影响并不明显。(2)中国农村实际收入与国内农业生产的温室气体排放量呈现倒U型关系。表明当农村收入水平较低时,为增加收入水平,农业生产者会通过提高农业生产规模、增加农业生产要素投入等手段,即增加化肥、农药等使用量和畜牧业生产规模,从而增加农业生产的温室气体排放量；当收入水平达到一定程度时,人们的环境保护意识会不断增强,要求政府制定更严格的环境保护措施,促使农业生产者加速技术革新,采用更低碳、环保的农业生产技术,从而有利于减少农业生产的温室气体排放量。
本研究的可能创新之处在于：一是,构建了中国农业生产的温室气体排放量测算模型,并利用相对比较合理的测算指标,初步测算了1991-2008年中国及地区农业生产的温室气体排放量,为后人的研究提供一定的借鉴和参考；二是,将Grossman等(1991)最初针对工业品贸易提出的对外贸易的环境效应引入农产品贸易,并借助其理论分析框架,从理论和实证两个方面,分析了农产品对外贸易对中国农业生产的温室气体排放的影响。
本研究的不足在于：一是,受研究条件制约,未能获得农作物的温室气体排放系数的时间序列数据,这可能会影响本文测算结果的可信度。二是,由于缺少农作物各品种的碳汇系数,未考虑其通过光合作用所吸收的C02排放量,可能会高估中国农业生产的温室气体排放量。三是,本文假定我国进口农产品与国内生产的同类农产品的温室气体排放强度相同,这也会影响本文的实证结果。
In recent years, trade and environmental issues are becoming a hot topic in academia. The environmental consequences of trade liberalization in the domestic and international academic, some scholars hold a pessimistic view that the implementation of trade liberalization policies will directly lead to deterioration of the environment; some scholars believe that the environmental effects of trade liberalization in the short term is negative, but over time, trade liberalization to the environment long-term positive impact.
For China, the overall impact of free trade of agricultural products on agriculture is better than harm (J. k Huang et al,2005a; Liu Y et al,2009; J. k Huang et al,2005b), promote free trade in line with China's national interests and long-term interests. In the past few decades, China has made tremendous efforts in the process of promoting free trade of agricultural products, not only in relaxation of the import and export market access, but also adopted a series of measures to mitigate the tariff. During1978-2008, China's agricultural trade has increased from$6.1billion in1978to$99.21billion in2008, and the average annual growth rate is9.7%. However, made great progress in agricultural foreign trade, and promoted development of the domestic agricultural economy, at the same time, agriculture as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas emissions from the Chinese agricultural production brought about a cause for concern increasingly.
At present, the general consensus is the production of Chinese wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other land-intensive agricultural products didn't have a clear comparative advantage, while the production of vegetables, meat and other labor-intensive agricultural products are with a clear comparative advantage (J. w Liu,2004; J. k Huang et al,2005a; J. k Huang et al,2005b; Liu Y, et al,2009). Performance of reducing the domestic production scale of wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products, expansion of domestic production scale of vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. Due to greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production process is very different between land-intensive crops and labor-intensive crops, and among of livestock products. Thus, free trade of agricultural products will affect the foreign trade structure of China's agricultural products, and thus affect the domestic resource configuration and the structure of agricultural production to improve (H. E Zhao,2005; X. J Du et al,1998; J. k Huang et al,1999), and ultimately impact the greenhouse gas emissions of domestic agricultural production in China. So, in recent decades, with deepening of reform and opening up, and trade have been expanding, what changes and trends of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. What affect mechanism of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in international market, what greenhouse gas emissions effects of the main import and export agricultural production in China. Whether the change of agricultural trade openness will also affect the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production? For answers to these questions will help us to recognize the greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure of agricultural production in China, and to select strategies of reducing the greenhouse gas emission of agricultural production and foreign trade of agricultural products in line with our national conditions, and to achieve harmonious and sustainable development between Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products and agro-ecological environment. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical and practical value.
The overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Around this goal, the author on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism, that is agricultural products in international market to the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Firstly, depicts the evolution of trade patterns and structure of foreign trade in China's agricultural products. Secondly, estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions on the national and sub-regional agricultural production, according to the greenhouse gas emission factors provide by IPCC (2006) and FAO (2004), and the measure of greenhouse gas emissions model. Thirdly, empirical analysis of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions of foreign trade in China's agricultural products, by learning from Grossman (1991), Chai (2002) and H.Z Li (2010). Finally, empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural trade openness to the greenhouse gas emissions of China's agricultural production, by improving the econometric Model of economic growth and environmental relations proposed by Grossman&Krueger (1995), introducing the variable of trade openness and agriculture environment, and basing on the inter-provincial panel data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
1. Since the1990s, there are a significant change of the trade patterns&structure of foreign trade in China's agricultural products. Performance:A declining status of the foreign trade in Chinese agricultural products in foreign trade goods in China, foreign exchange earning capacity is significantly diminished. Products structure appeared the situation of mainly exports vegetables, fruits&other labor-intensive agricultural products, and imports cotton, soybeans&other land-intensive agricultural products. Import&export market concentration continue to lower, the market is becoming more rational distribution and diversification. The concentration of import&export trade in the domestic areas is high degree. A shift of the main structure of import&export trade to diversify, the main structure is becoming more rational.
2. During1991-2008, the greenhouse gas emissions of China's agricultural production show an increasing trend and an uneven regional distribution. In particular:Firstly, for farming, the amount of CH4emissions in rice procuction has declined, from9.3144million tons in1991down to9.995million tons in2008; and at the same period the amount of N2O and CO2emissions increased year by year, the amount of N2O emissions from346,700tons in1991rose to487,400tons in2008, the amount of CO2emissions from40,194,800tons in1991to77,858,700tons in2008. Secondly, the amount of CH4and N2O emissions in livestock production showed a "∩" trend. The amount of CH4and N2O emissions respectively from7.6553million tons and353.2thousand tons in1991rose to11,114,300tons and559,300tons in2006. Since then, they were respectively down to9.0074million tons and469,000tons in2008. Thirdly, the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production shows the shrinking trend of farming but the increasing trend of livestock production. Fourthly, the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has a high regional degree, and the key emissions areas shows a concentration trends to the less developed and Midwest areas in China.
3. China's main import and export of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions effects of the decomposition results are as follows:(1) For the structure effect, during1991-2008, due to the share changes of import&export of agricultural products, total greenhouse gas emission has reduced583,600tons CO2equivalents, indicating that the optimization of foreign trade structure in China's agricultural products presents a significant negative effect to greenhouse gas emissions.(2) For the technical effect, during1991-2008, due to the technological progress of agricultural production is slow, the exports of Chinese agricultural products has only reduced greenhouse gas emissions900tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the technological progress is not obvious. At the same time period, the imports of Chinese agricultural products less reduced greenhouse gas emissions45,500tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, in overall terms, the Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products accumulated less reduced greenhouse gas emissions44,600tons CO2equivalent, due to the slow pace of technological progress, indicating that China's foreign trade in agricultural products presents a significant technical positive effect to domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.(3) For the scale effect, during1991-2008, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has a substantial increase caused by export expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative increased greenhouse gas emissions1.5578million tons CO2equivalent. At the same time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reducted are also a significant increase caused by the import expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative reduced greenhouse gas emissions2.6076million tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, due to the scale of China's foreign trade in agricultural products expanded, cumulative net reducted greenhouse gases1.0498million tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products presents a significant scale negative effects on domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.
4. The trade openness of agricultural products on different varieties of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has different effects. In particular:Firstly, for the amount of CO2emissions in Chinese agricultural production, the agricultural export-oriented rate and import penetration influence is significant. Agricultural export-oriented rate increase will increase domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production, while import penetration enhancement will reduce domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production; but for the CH4and N2O emissions of Chinese agricultural production, the trade openness influence is not significant. Secondly, the relationship of the actual income in Chinese rural area and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in domestic agricultural production showing a inverted "U" shaped, indicating that when the income level is lower in rural areas, in order to increase income, agricultural producers by increasing the scale of agricultural production, increase factors inputs and other means of agricultural production, that is to increase the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc and to expand the production scale of livestock, thereby increasing the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. When the income reaches a certain level, people's awareness of environmental protection growing, asking the Government to introduce more stringent environmental protection measures to promote agricultural producers to accelerate technological innovation, and to use more low-carbon or environmental friendly agricultural production technologies, so helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production.
In this study, the possibility innovations are as follows:Firstly, build a calculation model of greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China, and take advantage of the relatively reasonable estimates indicators; preliminary estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in national and regional of China during1991-2008, providing a reference for future generations. Secondly, Grossman et al (1991) originally proposed the environmental effects of industrial products foreign trade used to the agricultural products foreign trade, and with its theoretical framework from both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China.
The lacks of this study are as follows:Firstly, subject to study conditions restricting could not get a time series data of the greenhouse gas emission factors of crop varieties, which may affect the credibility of calculation results in this article. Secondly, due to lack of the carbon sink factors of crop varieties, didn't take into the amount of CO2absorbed through photosynthesis, and may overestimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in China's agricultural production. Thirdly, assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the imported agricultural products and the agricultural products by domestic production are the same; this will also affect the empirical results.
引文
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25.张连众、朱坦、李慕菡等,2003：《贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析》,《南开经济研究》,第3期。
26.李秀香、张婷,2004：《出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析——以CO2排放量为例》,《国际贸易问题》,第7期。
27.陆文聪、郭小钗,2002：《农业贸易自由化对我国环境的影响与对策》,《中国农村经济》,第1期。
28.曲如晓,2003：《农产品贸易自由化与发展中国家的生态环境》,《山东财政学院学报》,第5期。
29.代金贵,2009：《农业贸易自由化对农业环境的影响分析》,武汉：华中农业大学(硕士学位论文)。
30.新能源与低碳行动课题组,2011：《低碳经济与农业发展思考》,北京：中国时代经济出版社。
31.董红敏、李玉娥、陶秀萍等,2008：《中国农业源温室气体排放与减排技术对策》,《农业工程学报》,第10期。
32.董红敏、林而达、杨其长,1995：《中国反色动物甲烷排放量的初步估算及减缓技术》,《农村生态环境学报》,第3期。
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34.徐志刚,2001：《比较优势与中国农业生产结构调整》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
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37.张锋,2011：《中国化肥投入的面源污染问题研究——基于农户施用行为的视角》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
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43.张晖,2010：《中国畜牧业面源污染研究——基于长三角地区生猪养殖户的调查》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
44.刘培芳、陈振楼、许世远等,2002：《长江三角洲城郊畜禽粪便的污染负荷及其防治对策》,《长江流域资源与环境》,第5期。
45.唐红侠、韩丹、赵由才等,2009：《农林业温室气体减排与控制技术》,北京：化学工业出版社。
46.黄濒仪,2002：《稻米贸易自由化对要素需求与环境品质之影响》,中国文化大学(博士学位论文)。
47.胡启山,2010：《低碳农业任重道远》,《农药市场信息》,第2期。
48.李子奈、潘文卿,2005：《计量经济学》,北京：高等教育出版社。
49.卜伟、刘似臣、李雪梅等,2009：《国际贸易》,北京：清华大学出版社。
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54.陈宗良、高金、袁怡,1992：《不同农业管理方式对北京地区稻田甲烷排放的影响研究》,《环境科学研究》,第4期。
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1.黄季焜、徐志刚、李宁辉等,2005a：《贸易自由化与中国的农业、贫困和公平》,《农业经济问题》,第7期。
2.刘宇、黄季焜、杨军,2009：《新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响》,《农业经济问题,第9期。
3.黄季焜、徐志刚、李宁辉等,2005b：《新一轮贸易自由化与中国农业、贫困和环境》,《中国科学基金》,第3期。
4.刘剑文,2004：《论贸易自由化与我国粮食安全》,《农业经济问题》,第6期。
5.李怀政,2010：《出口贸易的环境效应实证研究》,《国际贸易问题》,第3期。
6.王明星、李晶、郑循华,1998：《稻田甲烷排放及产生、转化、输送机理》,《大气科学》,第22期。
7.王智平,1997：《中国农田N20排放量的估算》,《农村生态环境》,第2期。
8.苏维翰、宋文质、张桦等,1992：《华北典型冬小麦农田氧化亚氮通量》,《环境化学》,第11期。
9.于可伟、陈冠雄、杨思河等,1995：《几种旱地农作物在农田N2O释放中的作物及环境因素的影响》,《应用生态学报》,第6期。
10.黄国宏、陈冠雄、吴杰等,1995：《东北典型早作农田N20和CH4排放通量研究》,《应用生态学报》,第6期。
11.王少彬、苏维翰,1993：《中国地区氧化亚氮排放量及其变化的估算》,《环境科学》,第3期。
12.邱炜红、刘金山、胡承孝等,2010：《种植蔬菜地与裸地氧化亚氮排放差异比较研究》,《生态环境学报》,第12期。
13.智静、高吉喜,2009：《中国城乡居民食品消费碳排放对比分析》,《地理科学进展》,第3期。
14.李波、张俊飚、李海鹏,2011：《中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解》,《中国人口、资源与环境》,第8期。
15.伍芬琳、李琳、张海林,2007：《保护性耕作对农田生态系统净碳释放量的影响》,《生态学杂志》,第12期。
16.胡向东、王济民,2010：《中国畜禽温室气体排放量估算》,《农业工程学报》,第10期。
17.潘志坚,1997：《贸易自由化与我国的经济结构调整》,《经济问题》,第11期。
18.张凌云、毛显强、涂莹燕等,2005：《中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析》,《中国人口·资源与环境》,第6期。
19.钟钰,2007：《中国农产品关税减让与进口的相互关系及经济影响》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
20.程国强,1999：《中国农产品贸易：格局与政策》,《管理世界》,第3期。
21.余北迪,2005：《我国国际贸易的环境经济学分析》,《国际经贸探索》,第3期。
22.党玉婷、万能,2007：《贸易对环境影响的实证分析——以中国制造业为例》,《世界经济研究》,第4期。
23.周茂荣、祝佳,2008：《贸易自由化对我国环境的影响——基于ACT模型的实证研究》,《中国人口、资源与环境》,第4期。
24.程雁、郑玉刚,2009：《我国贸易自由化的环境效应分析——基于“污染避难所”假说与要素禀赋比较优势的检验》,《山东大学学报》(哲学社会科学版),第2期。
25.张连众、朱坦、李慕菡等,2003：《贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析》,《南开经济研究》,第3期。
26.李秀香、张婷,2004：《出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析——以CO2排放量为例》,《国际贸易问题》,第7期。
27.陆文聪、郭小钗,2002：《农业贸易自由化对我国环境的影响与对策》,《中国农村经济》,第1期。
28.曲如晓,2003：《农产品贸易自由化与发展中国家的生态环境》,《山东财政学院学报》,第5期。
29.代金贵,2009：《农业贸易自由化对农业环境的影响分析》,武汉：华中农业大学(硕士学位论文)。
30.新能源与低碳行动课题组,2011：《低碳经济与农业发展思考》,北京：中国时代经济出版社。
31.董红敏、李玉娥、陶秀萍等,2008：《中国农业源温室气体排放与减排技术对策》,《农业工程学报》,第10期。
32.董红敏、林而达、杨其长,1995：《中国反色动物甲烷排放量的初步估算及减缓技术》,《农村生态环境学报》,第3期。
33.85-913-04-05攻关课题组,1993：《我国稻田甲烷排放量和施用氮肥氧化亚氮排放量的估算》,《农业环境保护》,第2期。
34.徐志刚,2001：《比较优势与中国农业生产结构调整》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
35.董小琳,2011：《环境经济学》,北京：人民交通出版社。
36.王丽萍,2007：《环境与资源经济学》,徐州：中国矿业大学出版社。
37.张锋,2011：《中国化肥投入的面源污染问题研究——基于农户施用行为的视角》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
38.谭砚文,2004：《中国棉花生产波动研究》,武汉：华中农业大学(博士学位论文)。
39.农业部农产品贸易办公室,2006：《中国农产品贸易发展报告》,北京：中国农业出版社。
40.农业部农产品贸易办公室,2007：《中国农产品贸易发展报告》,北京：中国农业出版社。
41.农业部农产品贸易办公室,2008：《中国农产品贸易发展报告》,北京：中国农业出版社。
42.农业部农产品贸易办公室,2009:《中国农产品贸易发展报告》,北京：中国农业出版社。
43.张晖,2010：《中国畜牧业面源污染研究——基于长三角地区生猪养殖户的调查》,南京：南京农业大学(博士学位论文)。
44.刘培芳、陈振楼、许世远等,2002：《长江三角洲城郊畜禽粪便的污染负荷及其防治对策》,《长江流域资源与环境》,第5期。
45.唐红侠、韩丹、赵由才等,2009：《农林业温室气体减排与控制技术》,北京：化学工业出版社。
46.黄濒仪,2002：《稻米贸易自由化对要素需求与环境品质之影响》,中国文化大学(博士学位论文)。
47.胡启山,2010：《低碳农业任重道远》,《农药市场信息》,第2期。
48.李子奈、潘文卿,2005：《计量经济学》,北京：高等教育出版社。
49.卜伟、刘似臣、李雪梅等,2009：《国际贸易》,北京：清华大学出版社。
50.张玮、张宇馨,2009：《国际贸易》,北京：清华大学出版社。
51.喻志军、聂利君,2005：《国际贸易》,北京：中国金融出版社。
52.易丹辉,2008：《数据分析与EViews应用》,北京：中国人民大学出版社。
53.巴曙松、吴大义,2010：《能源消费、二氧化碳排放与经济增长》,《经济与管理研究》,第6期。
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