城市电网规划风险评价模型及风险规避方法研究
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摘要
城市是人类社会、经济、文化活动的中心。随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市电网担负着保障城市经济发展的重要使命,加快城市电网发展是构建社会主义和谐社会的必然要求。同时,城市电网规划项目存在实施周期长、不确定因素多、经济风险和技术风险大、对生态环境影响严重等问题更加突出,城市电网规划面临越来越多的风险,进行城市电网规划风险评价模型及规避方法研究,有利于促进我国城市电网建设的可持续发展。本文主要研究成果包括：
从城市电网规划方案全寿命周期风险角度来进行城市电网规划风险识别,按照规划、可研设计、建设、运行四个阶段来设计调查问卷,通过对专家的问卷调查来识别城市电网规划风险,并基于模糊隶属度理论建立了城市电网规划风险源评价模型,对未来的风险进行了量化分析,得出了我国城市电网规划应该关注的关键风险。同时,从政策、技术、经济、管理等角度对风险再进行系统识别与归类,在此基础上建立了城市电网规划方案的风险评价指标体系。同时对关键风险源,如电力负荷风险、电价风险等基于解释结构模型进行了子风险源的细化识别。
基于城市电网规划的风险评价指标体系,开展城市电网规划方案各典型风险要素的风险评价方法研究,主要从负荷不确定性风险、电价不确定性风险、工程造价风险、可靠性风险四个方面进行了概率分布分析和风险评价。同时在城市电网规划关键风险源风险评价的基础上提出了基于物元和可拓分析理论的规划方案风险等级综合评价模型和全寿命周期风险利润综合评价模型。
对城市电网规划的典型风险规避的方法进行理论与实证研究,以保证城市电网规划的科学性与适用性。在电力需求不确定性风险规避方法研究方面,从总量预测风险规避方法研究的角度提出了基于解释结构模型与风险评价的负荷预测精度提高方法；从负荷分布预测风险规避方法的角度提出了基于元胞自动机及负荷密度的空间负荷预测精度提高方法。同时建立了城市电网规划变电站选址风险规避方法、城市电网规划与城市规划协调风险规避方法等,并综合考虑规划方案的负荷不确定性风险、电价不确定性风险、方案造价风险、方案可靠性风险、方案运行成本风险以及后续投入成本等不确定性风险,以满足技术条件下的城市电网规划方案全寿命周期风险利润最大化为目标,建立了城市电网规划风险规避优化模型,优化了城市电网规划方案。最后,从政府政策、组织管理改进等角度,也对城市电网规划风险规避的方法进行了研究与探讨,提出了协调机制与风险规避的措施。
City is the center of the human social, economic and cultural activities. With the acceleration of urbanization process in China, urban network is changed with the important mission of protecting the urban economic development. To speed up the development of urban power grid, it is the necessary requirement to build a socialist and harmonious society. At the same time, urban network planning project faces many problems such as long implementation cycle, many uncertainty factors, great economic and technical risk, and serious impact on the ecological environment and so on. In fact, the planning faces more and more risks. Studying on the characteristics of urban economic development, risk assessment model and aversion methods in urban network planning can be conducive to promoting the sustainable development of urban power grid construction in China. The main research objects and resuls are:
Firstly, Questionnaires are designed as four phases:planning, feasibility design, construction and operation. And urban network planning risks are identified through surveying of experts and quantitative analyzed. And risk evaluation model of urban power network is established based on the fuzzy set theory. Then the key risks which should be concerned are obtained. Meanwhile, risks have been systematically identified and classified from the perspective of policy, technical, economic and management. In this foundation, risk assessment index system of urban power grid planning programs has been established. In order to identify the key sub-risk source in detail, such as power load risk source, electricity price risk and so on, the interpretative structural model has been built.
The evaluation method of typical risk factors in urban power grid planning programs has been studied based on the risk assessment index system. Probability distribution analysis and risk assessment from four aspects are mainly made:load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk and reliability risk. In addition, on the basis of risk assessment of key risk source in urban power grid planning programs, two comprehensive evaluation models are put forward:the comprehensive evaluation model of planning programs risk based on matter-element and extension analysis theory and the comprehensive evaluation model of risk profit based on life-cycle benefit.
This paper does also research on the method of risk aversion to ensure the scientificity and applicability of urban power grid planning from the perspective of optimization and policy assurance. In studying the risk aversion method of electricity demand uncertainty, load forecast accuracy improvement method based on the interpretative structural modeling and risk assessment has been put forward from the perspective of total forecast and spatial load forecasting accuracy improvement method based on the cellular automata and load density from the perspective of load distribution prediction. Meanwhile risk aversion method of substation site selection in urban power network, coordination risk aversion method between urban network planning with urban planning, and so on have been established. On the one hand, in order to optimize the urban power grid planning programs, this paper sets the maximum risk profit in life-cycle as target and synthetically takes account of uncertain risks such as power load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk, reliability risk, operational cost risk, further investment cost and so on. On the other hand, this paper makes a study of coordination mechanism and risk aversion measures between the urban planning and urban power network planning by taking government policy, organization improvement and other facets into account.
从城市电网规划方案全寿命周期风险角度来进行城市电网规划风险识别,按照规划、可研设计、建设、运行四个阶段来设计调查问卷,通过对专家的问卷调查来识别城市电网规划风险,并基于模糊隶属度理论建立了城市电网规划风险源评价模型,对未来的风险进行了量化分析,得出了我国城市电网规划应该关注的关键风险。同时,从政策、技术、经济、管理等角度对风险再进行系统识别与归类,在此基础上建立了城市电网规划方案的风险评价指标体系。同时对关键风险源,如电力负荷风险、电价风险等基于解释结构模型进行了子风险源的细化识别。
基于城市电网规划的风险评价指标体系,开展城市电网规划方案各典型风险要素的风险评价方法研究,主要从负荷不确定性风险、电价不确定性风险、工程造价风险、可靠性风险四个方面进行了概率分布分析和风险评价。同时在城市电网规划关键风险源风险评价的基础上提出了基于物元和可拓分析理论的规划方案风险等级综合评价模型和全寿命周期风险利润综合评价模型。
对城市电网规划的典型风险规避的方法进行理论与实证研究,以保证城市电网规划的科学性与适用性。在电力需求不确定性风险规避方法研究方面,从总量预测风险规避方法研究的角度提出了基于解释结构模型与风险评价的负荷预测精度提高方法；从负荷分布预测风险规避方法的角度提出了基于元胞自动机及负荷密度的空间负荷预测精度提高方法。同时建立了城市电网规划变电站选址风险规避方法、城市电网规划与城市规划协调风险规避方法等,并综合考虑规划方案的负荷不确定性风险、电价不确定性风险、方案造价风险、方案可靠性风险、方案运行成本风险以及后续投入成本等不确定性风险,以满足技术条件下的城市电网规划方案全寿命周期风险利润最大化为目标,建立了城市电网规划风险规避优化模型,优化了城市电网规划方案。最后,从政府政策、组织管理改进等角度,也对城市电网规划风险规避的方法进行了研究与探讨,提出了协调机制与风险规避的措施。
City is the center of the human social, economic and cultural activities. With the acceleration of urbanization process in China, urban network is changed with the important mission of protecting the urban economic development. To speed up the development of urban power grid, it is the necessary requirement to build a socialist and harmonious society. At the same time, urban network planning project faces many problems such as long implementation cycle, many uncertainty factors, great economic and technical risk, and serious impact on the ecological environment and so on. In fact, the planning faces more and more risks. Studying on the characteristics of urban economic development, risk assessment model and aversion methods in urban network planning can be conducive to promoting the sustainable development of urban power grid construction in China. The main research objects and resuls are:
Firstly, Questionnaires are designed as four phases:planning, feasibility design, construction and operation. And urban network planning risks are identified through surveying of experts and quantitative analyzed. And risk evaluation model of urban power network is established based on the fuzzy set theory. Then the key risks which should be concerned are obtained. Meanwhile, risks have been systematically identified and classified from the perspective of policy, technical, economic and management. In this foundation, risk assessment index system of urban power grid planning programs has been established. In order to identify the key sub-risk source in detail, such as power load risk source, electricity price risk and so on, the interpretative structural model has been built.
The evaluation method of typical risk factors in urban power grid planning programs has been studied based on the risk assessment index system. Probability distribution analysis and risk assessment from four aspects are mainly made:load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk and reliability risk. In addition, on the basis of risk assessment of key risk source in urban power grid planning programs, two comprehensive evaluation models are put forward:the comprehensive evaluation model of planning programs risk based on matter-element and extension analysis theory and the comprehensive evaluation model of risk profit based on life-cycle benefit.
This paper does also research on the method of risk aversion to ensure the scientificity and applicability of urban power grid planning from the perspective of optimization and policy assurance. In studying the risk aversion method of electricity demand uncertainty, load forecast accuracy improvement method based on the interpretative structural modeling and risk assessment has been put forward from the perspective of total forecast and spatial load forecasting accuracy improvement method based on the cellular automata and load density from the perspective of load distribution prediction. Meanwhile risk aversion method of substation site selection in urban power network, coordination risk aversion method between urban network planning with urban planning, and so on have been established. On the one hand, in order to optimize the urban power grid planning programs, this paper sets the maximum risk profit in life-cycle as target and synthetically takes account of uncertain risks such as power load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk, reliability risk, operational cost risk, further investment cost and so on. On the other hand, this paper makes a study of coordination mechanism and risk aversion measures between the urban planning and urban power network planning by taking government policy, organization improvement and other facets into account.
引文
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