我国当代边境贸易发展研究
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摘要
长期以来中国致力于与俄罗斯修好关系、积极加入东盟自由贸易区,推动新疆的亚欧博览会,深化中巴自贸区合作等等,为边境贸易营造良好的外部环境。边境贸易已经成为少数民族地区重要的外贸方式,并形成了新疆、黑龙江和广西的“三极”发展模式。目前国内学界对边境贸易理论和实证研究的文献较分散,有深度且较系统的研究成果较少。20世纪80年代有一波边境贸易研究潮流,主要是为了顺应国家沿边开放战略的实施,研究的范畴也局限于定义、形式等问题；90年代的文献主要倾向于对各区域的边境贸易实际发展情况作总结；21世纪后的文献较多,主要集中于对区域边境贸易、物流、人民币结算、贸易新政策的运用等问题的探讨,研究范围和深度都有一定程度的扩展。本文将在这些前期研究的基础上,结合各国相关研究文献,及边境贸易最新发展事实,做出对我国当代边境贸易研究的系统的数据分析和实证研究成果。
本文的研究遵循先理论,再规范,最后实证研究的模式。通过中国边境贸易政策变迁,回顾边境贸易发展历程,在比较中国与世界其他地方边境贸易发展的基础上,分析中国边境贸易进出口的特征；本文发现边境贸易进出口呈现明显的“三极”发展模式,找出其影响因素并实证解释。通过交易成本的分析,找到边境贸易成本低的原因,解释为什么边境贸易更易产生。编制各国贸易便利化指数,解释为什么地理位置越近反而贸易量越小；再实证研究边境贸易发展对经济增长的额外贡献(因为相对于没有边境贸易的临近省份,有边境贸易的其经济发展较好,如新疆比甘肃发展较好等)。最后提出坚持边境贸易发展战略,构建边境贸易自由区,创新政策刺激发展,以增加落后地区的居民收入,促进边境贸易的持续发展。
全文共分9章,各章的主要内容为：
第1章,绪论。对本文的研究背景、研究意义、相关概念界定、创新点以及主要观点作了具体说明。
第2章,理论回顾和相关文献综述。从三个方面回顾了相关文献：贸易与经济增长、贸易产生等理论回顾,世界主要区域边境贸易发展特征的研究综述,和促进双边贸易发展的策略研究综述。梳理了与边境贸易相关的理论和实证文献,为边境贸易研究找到了理论渊源和文献基础。
第3章,中国边境贸易政策回顾和国际比较。回顾了与边境贸易相关的资金支付、行政制度、税收政策变化,以及对边境贸易阶段变化的影响。资金支付政策的变化是伴随着边境贸易规模逐步扩大而发展的,体现了边境贸易对人民币区域化改革的推动作用。行政管理经历了边境贸易区、边境经济合作区和跨境经济合作区建设,但跨境经济合作区运行效果尚不明确。各省市中地方政府对边境贸易扶持最多的是广西,周边国家中对外贸政策最支持的是越南。20世纪90年代边境贸易政策、文件的密集出台,边境贸易震荡发展,进入持续的低迷期。伴随着中国经济的软着陆,边境贸易从2002年开始逐步恢复。同时对比世界其他地方边境贸易,找到促进中国边境贸易发展的方向。
第4章,我国边境贸易的发展特征。基于我国海关统计HS八分位数据研究发现：边境贸易出口大省是新疆、黑龙江和广西,进口大省是内蒙、新疆和黑龙江,呈现出明显的“三极”发展模式；出口主要集中于纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽制造业和皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品,进口产品集中于石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、煤炭开采洗选业;乌鲁木齐出口主要集中于男女服装套装和鞋靴制品,哈尔滨是鞋靴零件、鞋靴,南宁则是女士服装套装、背心和袜子；新疆和黑龙江进口以原油为主,内蒙古以煤炭为主。同时,中国与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦边境贸易结构存在互补性,各国间双边贸易和投资不断增长,经济联系度在增强。
第5章,边境贸易“三极发展”的影响因素研究。在第4章研究的基础上,选取自然资源禀赋、汇率、东道国制度、双边投资协议的个数、人均GDP、各国的贸易开放度等指标建立引力模型。结果发现,距离、东道国的人均GDP.是显著影响边境贸易的因素,距离是显著的负相关,人均GDP是显著的正相关。东道国的自然资源禀赋影响我国从该国的边境贸易进口和我国省域的边境贸易出口；东道国的制度质量与我国从该国的边境贸易进口是负相关；人民币的升值不利于我国边境贸易的进出口,但是签订投资协议有利于我国边境贸易的出口,语言文化的接近越有利于中国临近省份的边境贸易的发展。这些因素能解释为什么中国边境贸易呈现出明显的增长极点模式。
第6章,边境贸易交易成本分析。论证了边境贸易的政策依赖性,以及低成本导致贸易的产生。使用“中国海关数据库”的交易记录数据,借助包含陆运与海运两种方式的引力模型进行实证分析。结果发现：边境贸易成本确实小于其他贸易方式,与海运贸易等非边境贸易相比,边境贸易成本更低,但其优势却在逐年的下降；中国对俄罗斯、朝鲜、越南三国边境贸易很可能是边境贸易更易开展的主要来源；边境贸易的“优势”主要来自于出口贸易；集体、私营企业和外资企业积极参与了边境贸易,国有企业在边境贸易上表现并不十分良好；相似的产品在边境贸易中有更大优势,边境贸易对差异化产品有较多阻碍。
第7章,边境贸易国际贸易便利化水平测算。选取港口效率(主要为公路运输质量、铁路运输质量、港口运输的质量、进出口所需要的天数),海关管理(进出口所需要的文件数、海关的效率评价、贸易壁垒的普遍性、清廉指数),管制环境(政府决策的透明度、司法的独立性、公众对于政治的信任程度、官员在决策中的偏袒性)和电子商务(每100人使用互联网的比例、互联网的速度)这四个指标构建的贸易便利化指标,发现：中国、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、泰国、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦、越南和尼泊尔这些国家相对贸易便利化水平较高,这些国家也是中国边境贸易出口较多的国家。计量分析同样也论证了边境贸易出口与距离之间是负相关,与国外人口数量之间是正相关,与是否是上合组织成员国之间是正相关,但与加入同一个自贸区组织是负相关。
第8章,边境贸易对经济增长贡献研究。边境贸易的发展能否促进经济的额外增长?基于《中国海关数据库》的2000-2006年的月度边贸数据,通过不同的回归方法实证发现：边境贸易与贸易所在省的GDP均呈显著的正相关关系,边贸与边境省份GDP额外增加值的弹性为0.05-0.06,与全国各省的额外增加值为0.015。边境省份的国有企业出口的增长、技术水平的提高对于经济增长的贡献不大；从全国各省来看,政策优惠指数对经济增长则稳健地具有正的影响,边境省份的经济增长要慢于非边境省份；但当对进口与经济增长关系进行检验时,发现边境贸易进口与经济增长的相关关系并不稳健。
第9章,促进边境贸易发展的对策研究。为了避免中国的边缘化,和周边国家建立良好的经贸关系,需要成立边境贸易自由区,并与周边国家签订双边的协议。在充分考虑自由区的数量和时间点、口岸的经济实力和辐射范围、建立的战略意义等要素的基础上,选择凭祥和满洲里口岸建立两个边境贸易自由区,并把霍尔果斯建设成区域物流中心、集散中心。主要在人流、物流、金融、投资软环境方面进行政策创新,做好承接产业转移的准备,实现产业结构升级；基础设施的建设要有战略的眼光,超前发展；需要进行制度的顶层设计,成立专门的自由区委员会,协调处理各项事宜；注重与大国合作的示范带动作用,推动大国合作机制。
本文通过研究当代中国边境贸易发展整体情况,试图实现三个角度的创新：
首先,重点研究了影响边境贸易发展的一些因素,如不同口岸贸易便利化程度、各国的贸易便利化指数、国家间贸易和投资政策等,并考察这些因素对边贸的影响,具有较强的政策含义。
其次,在分析边境贸易问题时,把边境贸易纳入更大的框架中,把边境贸易省份和非边境贸易省份、中国边境贸易与世界边境贸易发展相结合,考察不同口岸的发展特征和意义,找到政策的落脚点。
最后,试图从理论角度解释边境贸易的产生并提出战略对策建议。从贸易成本的角度对边境贸易的低成本做出分析,从一定程度上论证了边境贸易更易产生。同时,提出通过建立边境贸易自由区、探讨大国合作机制等方式,保持低成本优势,扩大贸易发展。
Recently, our government tried to get friendly relationship with Russian, joined in the Asian free trade zone, promoted the cooperation of China-Eurasia EXPO, deepened the cooperation of China-Pakistan free trade zone, etc, all these efforts are in order to make a better external environment for border trade development. As a result,border trade has become an important way of foreign trade in the ethnic minority areas, and the obvious characteristics is that it formed the "triangle" development pattern by Xinjiang、Heilongjiang and Guangxi provinces. There was once very few paper focus on the study of border trade, more about the empirical description research, and even scarcely comprehensive system research on these problems. In the early1980s, there were many paper focused on border trade research, the main purpose was to comply with the national implementation of opening-up strategy, and the theme of research mainly limited to the definition, forms and other issues. In the1990s, those papers mainly tended to summary the actual development situation of the regional border trade. More and more paper appeared in recent10years, the topic was also become more widely,including regional border trade, logistics, Renminbi settlement, the use of the new trade policy in border trade, the scope and depth of research are increased. On the basis of the previous studies and the status of nowadays border trade, compared with papers in different countries, this paper will research the development of border trade in a full-scale research way, in order to form a systematically data analysis and empirically paper.
In this paper, the research follows the analysis way that theoretical firstly, canonical again, finally empirical model. Through reviewed the changes of China's border trade policies, compared the development of border trade in China to the rest of the world, then decomposed characteristic of the Chinese border trade import and export. The major border trade provinces(Heilongjiang、 Xinjiang,Guangxi) have formed the "three pole development" pattern, this paper will find out which factors have influence on this outcome. Through the analysis of cost theories about border trade, this paper tried to find out the theoretical basis for border trade, and explain why the border trade had lower trade cost and lead to a easier border trade? As following, compiled the trade facilitation index about border trade in neighboring countries, and used the econometrics model to explain why the smaller geographical location, the closer trade instead. This part found that there is an additional growth about economy for border trade(because compare with the provinces have no border trade in neighboring provinces, those provinces have border trade will increased more rapidly, for example, Xinjiang has developed better than Gansu), by constructed econometric model to empirically research frontier trade's contribution to the economic growth. Finally, according to the border trade development strategy, this paper suggested to set up the free trade zone along the border, to increase the residents' income backward areas, and promote the sustainable development of border trade.
This paper is wholly divided into eight chapters to expound, and the main content of each chapter is as follows:
Chapter one is the introduction. This chapter mainly concretely introduced the research background, research significance, related conception, innovating ideas and the main points of view.
Chapter two is the theoretical and relevant literature about border trade review. This chapter reviews the related theory about border trade in there aspects:the relationship between trade and economic growth, and how the trade birth theory review; the study of development characteristics of border trade in the world's major regional; strategies to promote the development of bilateral trade research review. This part combined the theoretical and empirical literatures related to border trade, found the theoretical and literature basis for study about China border trade.
Chapter three is China's border trade policies review and international comparison. This part reviewed the changes of policy system related to border trade, including money payment, administrative management and tax policy, as well as the influence of these policies to the change of border trade in the same phase. Money pay policy' change is accompanied by scale expanding and the development of border trade, which reflected the border trade regionalization reform of Renminbi. Administrative system experienced the stage of border trade zone, border economic cooperation zones and cross-border economic cooperation zone, currently there is only one cross-border economic cooperation zone exist, and the running effect is unclear. Among the eight border provinces, local government support the border trade largest is Guangxi, the most support of foreign trade policy in the neighboring countries is Vietnam. In1990s, border trade policy and files appeared more densely, which caused the shock development of border trade into the last downturn. Along with China's economy to a soft landing, border trade step up rapidly since2002. At the same time, compared our border trade to other parts of the world, this part found the direction to promote the development of China's border trade.
Chapter four is the development characteristics of border trade in our country. On the basis of customs statistics HS eight bits of data, this part found that:the main border trade export provinces is Xinjiang Heilongjiang and Guangxi provinces, while the importer are Neimenggu,Xinjiang and Heilongjiang provinces; export products are mainly on textile industry, clothing shoes and hats manufacturing industry and leather fur feathers (fine hair) and its products industry, while the import are oil and gas industry, black metals extractive and mining industry, and coal washing industry; the main export products in Urumqi custom are men's and women's clothing suits and shoes boots products, in Haerbin custom are shoe parts, shoes, boots,in Nanning custom are women's clothes suit, vest and a pair of socks; import in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang are given priority to crude oil, and coal in Neimenggu. China and Russia, kazakhstan's border trade had structure complementation, the growing bilateral trade and investment between these countries will strengthen the degree of economic ties.
Chapter five is the analysis of "three pole development pattern" characteristics and factors influence the border trade growth. On the basis of above research, this chapter select the system of natural resources endowment, exchange rate, the host country, the number of bilateral investment agreement, per capita GDP, trade openness indicator measures, to establish gravity models. The consequence are:distance, the host country's GDP per capita income is still a significant factors that affect trade, but distance is a significant negative correlation, the per capita GDP is a significant positive correlation. In addition, the openness of host country is the factor with a positive impact on border trade. The natural resources endowment of host country has a great affect on China's imports from the country's border trade and the export of our provinces'. Quality of the system in the host country is negative correlate with China's imports from the country. The appreciation of the Renminbi is not benefit for the import and export of our country's border trade. But the signed of investment agreement is good for the export of China's border trade. The more closely of language culture for China's neighboring countries, the greater amount of export from China provinces to these countries. All these factors can explain why the "three pole development pattern" had birthed.
Chapter six is the trade cost of border trade. This part demonstrated policy dependence of border trade, as well as the low cost which caused the birth of border trade. By using "Chinese customs database", and empirical analysis with the help of gravity model which including two transport ways-sea and land, this part found that:the provinces of per capita area of trade is negative, the per capita area of foreign country is beneficial to the development of trade abroad; compared with shipping trade and non border trade, border trade costs more lower, but its advantage is reduced year by year; the border trade form China to Russia, north Korea, Vietnam, is likely to be the main source of border trade;"Comparative advantage" of border trade mainly comes from export trade; the collective, private enterprises and foreign enterprises actively participated in border trade, but state-owned enterprises in border trade is not good; similar products have more advantages in border trade, border trade have more obstacles for differentiated products. After comparison of different types of border trade, this part found that: the better development of border trade in major economies is because the core countries'economic level directly determines the border trade development level, the level of trade facilitation directly determines the border trade costs, border trade development cannot leave the good regional trade agreement and standard operation.
Chapter seven is the research on the trade facilitation of border trade. This part choose four major indicators to build the trade facilitation index system, including:port efficiency (mainly for the quality of highway transportation,railway transportation and port transportation, the number of days for import and export),customs administration (the number of documents required for import and export, customs efficiency evaluation, the universality of trade barriers, corruption perceptions index),regulation environment(transparency of government policymaking, judicial independence,public trust in politicians,favoritism in decisions of government officials) and e-business(the proportion of every100people use the internet, the speed of the internet). The empirical results are:China, kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam and Nepal, Mongolia, Tajikistan,all these countries have comparatively higher level of trade facilitation, and also the large export countries for our border trade. The econometric analysis demonstrate that the border trade is negative correlation between exports and distance, and the positive correlation between foreign population, and whether is a positive relationship between the SCO member states, but there is a negative correlation between join the same free trade zone organizations, on the whole, the OFDI of China is positively related to border trade.
Chapter eight is the research of border trade's effect on economic growth. Can border trade additionally promote economic growth? Based on the monthly datum from2000-2006from the Chinese Custom Database, and through different regression methods, this paper finds that border trade has an additional significant positive relationship with the provinces'GDP. The elasticity between border trade and the border provinces' GDP is0.05～0.06, and the elasticity between border trade and the GDP in all Chinese provinces is about0.015. The export growth of border province's state-owned enterprise and the level of technology raise do not contribute much to economic growth. From the vision of all the provinces, policy preferential index has sound positive influence on economic growth, and border provinces'economic growth is slower than those non-border provinces'. When testing the role of import border trade for the economic growth, this part found that import border trade and economic growth have not a steady relationship.
Chapter nine is the strategic countermeasures about border trade development. In order to avoid China's marginalization, to make good use of geopolitical advantage, our country should take new measures to foster the development of border trade, establish free trade zone along the border and sign bilateral trade and invest agreements with neighboring countries. On the basis of adequate consideration about the number and time of trade zone, economic strength and scope of radiation, the strategic significance of set up, this paper suggest to select Pingxiang and Manchurian posts as the two port free trade zones, and construct Huoerguos port into a regional logistics center and distribution center. The mainly innovation of policy are in the stream of people, logistics, financial, policy investment soft environment aspect, and design a system from the top, set up free zone committee, to promote the sustainable and healthy development of border trade in the end. We should make ready to undertake industrial transfer, get the industrial structure upgrade; have strategic vision in infrastructure construction and develop in advance; pay attention to the cooperation with big demonstration leading countries, promote power cooperation mechanism.
Through studies of contemporary Chinese border trade development overall situation, this paper tried to achieve these three angles of innovation:
Firstly, this paper mainly studied some factors that affecting the development of border trade, for example the degree of port trade facilitation, trade facilitation index in the neighbor countries, trade and investment policies in these countries, and so on, then tested the impact of these factors on the border trade, all these analysis have strong policy implications.
Secondly, when measuring the effect of border trade to economic growth, this paper did not only take the provinces border trade in account, but in the basis of all provinces and in the rest world for contrast analysis. Because of the border trade is not just in the border provinces, other provinces will be also involved in the process. Then analyse characteristics and significance of different port's development, in order to fing out the essences of policy.
Finally, this paper tried to explain how the border trade came about and provide some suggestion for the development of border trade. This paper from the perspective of trade costs to explain the theoretical basis of border trade's easy birth in some way. Meanwhile, on the basis of the development of border trade, this part suggested to established free trade zone along the border, promoted the great power cooperation mechanism, and keeped a low cost advantage, to expand the trade volume.
本文的研究遵循先理论,再规范,最后实证研究的模式。通过中国边境贸易政策变迁,回顾边境贸易发展历程,在比较中国与世界其他地方边境贸易发展的基础上,分析中国边境贸易进出口的特征；本文发现边境贸易进出口呈现明显的“三极”发展模式,找出其影响因素并实证解释。通过交易成本的分析,找到边境贸易成本低的原因,解释为什么边境贸易更易产生。编制各国贸易便利化指数,解释为什么地理位置越近反而贸易量越小；再实证研究边境贸易发展对经济增长的额外贡献(因为相对于没有边境贸易的临近省份,有边境贸易的其经济发展较好,如新疆比甘肃发展较好等)。最后提出坚持边境贸易发展战略,构建边境贸易自由区,创新政策刺激发展,以增加落后地区的居民收入,促进边境贸易的持续发展。
全文共分9章,各章的主要内容为：
第1章,绪论。对本文的研究背景、研究意义、相关概念界定、创新点以及主要观点作了具体说明。
第2章,理论回顾和相关文献综述。从三个方面回顾了相关文献：贸易与经济增长、贸易产生等理论回顾,世界主要区域边境贸易发展特征的研究综述,和促进双边贸易发展的策略研究综述。梳理了与边境贸易相关的理论和实证文献,为边境贸易研究找到了理论渊源和文献基础。
第3章,中国边境贸易政策回顾和国际比较。回顾了与边境贸易相关的资金支付、行政制度、税收政策变化,以及对边境贸易阶段变化的影响。资金支付政策的变化是伴随着边境贸易规模逐步扩大而发展的,体现了边境贸易对人民币区域化改革的推动作用。行政管理经历了边境贸易区、边境经济合作区和跨境经济合作区建设,但跨境经济合作区运行效果尚不明确。各省市中地方政府对边境贸易扶持最多的是广西,周边国家中对外贸政策最支持的是越南。20世纪90年代边境贸易政策、文件的密集出台,边境贸易震荡发展,进入持续的低迷期。伴随着中国经济的软着陆,边境贸易从2002年开始逐步恢复。同时对比世界其他地方边境贸易,找到促进中国边境贸易发展的方向。
第4章,我国边境贸易的发展特征。基于我国海关统计HS八分位数据研究发现：边境贸易出口大省是新疆、黑龙江和广西,进口大省是内蒙、新疆和黑龙江,呈现出明显的“三极”发展模式；出口主要集中于纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽制造业和皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品,进口产品集中于石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、煤炭开采洗选业;乌鲁木齐出口主要集中于男女服装套装和鞋靴制品,哈尔滨是鞋靴零件、鞋靴,南宁则是女士服装套装、背心和袜子；新疆和黑龙江进口以原油为主,内蒙古以煤炭为主。同时,中国与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦边境贸易结构存在互补性,各国间双边贸易和投资不断增长,经济联系度在增强。
第5章,边境贸易“三极发展”的影响因素研究。在第4章研究的基础上,选取自然资源禀赋、汇率、东道国制度、双边投资协议的个数、人均GDP、各国的贸易开放度等指标建立引力模型。结果发现,距离、东道国的人均GDP.是显著影响边境贸易的因素,距离是显著的负相关,人均GDP是显著的正相关。东道国的自然资源禀赋影响我国从该国的边境贸易进口和我国省域的边境贸易出口；东道国的制度质量与我国从该国的边境贸易进口是负相关；人民币的升值不利于我国边境贸易的进出口,但是签订投资协议有利于我国边境贸易的出口,语言文化的接近越有利于中国临近省份的边境贸易的发展。这些因素能解释为什么中国边境贸易呈现出明显的增长极点模式。
第6章,边境贸易交易成本分析。论证了边境贸易的政策依赖性,以及低成本导致贸易的产生。使用“中国海关数据库”的交易记录数据,借助包含陆运与海运两种方式的引力模型进行实证分析。结果发现：边境贸易成本确实小于其他贸易方式,与海运贸易等非边境贸易相比,边境贸易成本更低,但其优势却在逐年的下降；中国对俄罗斯、朝鲜、越南三国边境贸易很可能是边境贸易更易开展的主要来源；边境贸易的“优势”主要来自于出口贸易；集体、私营企业和外资企业积极参与了边境贸易,国有企业在边境贸易上表现并不十分良好；相似的产品在边境贸易中有更大优势,边境贸易对差异化产品有较多阻碍。
第7章,边境贸易国际贸易便利化水平测算。选取港口效率(主要为公路运输质量、铁路运输质量、港口运输的质量、进出口所需要的天数),海关管理(进出口所需要的文件数、海关的效率评价、贸易壁垒的普遍性、清廉指数),管制环境(政府决策的透明度、司法的独立性、公众对于政治的信任程度、官员在决策中的偏袒性)和电子商务(每100人使用互联网的比例、互联网的速度)这四个指标构建的贸易便利化指标,发现：中国、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、泰国、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦、越南和尼泊尔这些国家相对贸易便利化水平较高,这些国家也是中国边境贸易出口较多的国家。计量分析同样也论证了边境贸易出口与距离之间是负相关,与国外人口数量之间是正相关,与是否是上合组织成员国之间是正相关,但与加入同一个自贸区组织是负相关。
第8章,边境贸易对经济增长贡献研究。边境贸易的发展能否促进经济的额外增长?基于《中国海关数据库》的2000-2006年的月度边贸数据,通过不同的回归方法实证发现：边境贸易与贸易所在省的GDP均呈显著的正相关关系,边贸与边境省份GDP额外增加值的弹性为0.05-0.06,与全国各省的额外增加值为0.015。边境省份的国有企业出口的增长、技术水平的提高对于经济增长的贡献不大；从全国各省来看,政策优惠指数对经济增长则稳健地具有正的影响,边境省份的经济增长要慢于非边境省份；但当对进口与经济增长关系进行检验时,发现边境贸易进口与经济增长的相关关系并不稳健。
第9章,促进边境贸易发展的对策研究。为了避免中国的边缘化,和周边国家建立良好的经贸关系,需要成立边境贸易自由区,并与周边国家签订双边的协议。在充分考虑自由区的数量和时间点、口岸的经济实力和辐射范围、建立的战略意义等要素的基础上,选择凭祥和满洲里口岸建立两个边境贸易自由区,并把霍尔果斯建设成区域物流中心、集散中心。主要在人流、物流、金融、投资软环境方面进行政策创新,做好承接产业转移的准备,实现产业结构升级；基础设施的建设要有战略的眼光,超前发展；需要进行制度的顶层设计,成立专门的自由区委员会,协调处理各项事宜；注重与大国合作的示范带动作用,推动大国合作机制。
本文通过研究当代中国边境贸易发展整体情况,试图实现三个角度的创新：
首先,重点研究了影响边境贸易发展的一些因素,如不同口岸贸易便利化程度、各国的贸易便利化指数、国家间贸易和投资政策等,并考察这些因素对边贸的影响,具有较强的政策含义。
其次,在分析边境贸易问题时,把边境贸易纳入更大的框架中,把边境贸易省份和非边境贸易省份、中国边境贸易与世界边境贸易发展相结合,考察不同口岸的发展特征和意义,找到政策的落脚点。
最后,试图从理论角度解释边境贸易的产生并提出战略对策建议。从贸易成本的角度对边境贸易的低成本做出分析,从一定程度上论证了边境贸易更易产生。同时,提出通过建立边境贸易自由区、探讨大国合作机制等方式,保持低成本优势,扩大贸易发展。
Recently, our government tried to get friendly relationship with Russian, joined in the Asian free trade zone, promoted the cooperation of China-Eurasia EXPO, deepened the cooperation of China-Pakistan free trade zone, etc, all these efforts are in order to make a better external environment for border trade development. As a result,border trade has become an important way of foreign trade in the ethnic minority areas, and the obvious characteristics is that it formed the "triangle" development pattern by Xinjiang、Heilongjiang and Guangxi provinces. There was once very few paper focus on the study of border trade, more about the empirical description research, and even scarcely comprehensive system research on these problems. In the early1980s, there were many paper focused on border trade research, the main purpose was to comply with the national implementation of opening-up strategy, and the theme of research mainly limited to the definition, forms and other issues. In the1990s, those papers mainly tended to summary the actual development situation of the regional border trade. More and more paper appeared in recent10years, the topic was also become more widely,including regional border trade, logistics, Renminbi settlement, the use of the new trade policy in border trade, the scope and depth of research are increased. On the basis of the previous studies and the status of nowadays border trade, compared with papers in different countries, this paper will research the development of border trade in a full-scale research way, in order to form a systematically data analysis and empirically paper.
In this paper, the research follows the analysis way that theoretical firstly, canonical again, finally empirical model. Through reviewed the changes of China's border trade policies, compared the development of border trade in China to the rest of the world, then decomposed characteristic of the Chinese border trade import and export. The major border trade provinces(Heilongjiang、 Xinjiang,Guangxi) have formed the "three pole development" pattern, this paper will find out which factors have influence on this outcome. Through the analysis of cost theories about border trade, this paper tried to find out the theoretical basis for border trade, and explain why the border trade had lower trade cost and lead to a easier border trade? As following, compiled the trade facilitation index about border trade in neighboring countries, and used the econometrics model to explain why the smaller geographical location, the closer trade instead. This part found that there is an additional growth about economy for border trade(because compare with the provinces have no border trade in neighboring provinces, those provinces have border trade will increased more rapidly, for example, Xinjiang has developed better than Gansu), by constructed econometric model to empirically research frontier trade's contribution to the economic growth. Finally, according to the border trade development strategy, this paper suggested to set up the free trade zone along the border, to increase the residents' income backward areas, and promote the sustainable development of border trade.
This paper is wholly divided into eight chapters to expound, and the main content of each chapter is as follows:
Chapter one is the introduction. This chapter mainly concretely introduced the research background, research significance, related conception, innovating ideas and the main points of view.
Chapter two is the theoretical and relevant literature about border trade review. This chapter reviews the related theory about border trade in there aspects:the relationship between trade and economic growth, and how the trade birth theory review; the study of development characteristics of border trade in the world's major regional; strategies to promote the development of bilateral trade research review. This part combined the theoretical and empirical literatures related to border trade, found the theoretical and literature basis for study about China border trade.
Chapter three is China's border trade policies review and international comparison. This part reviewed the changes of policy system related to border trade, including money payment, administrative management and tax policy, as well as the influence of these policies to the change of border trade in the same phase. Money pay policy' change is accompanied by scale expanding and the development of border trade, which reflected the border trade regionalization reform of Renminbi. Administrative system experienced the stage of border trade zone, border economic cooperation zones and cross-border economic cooperation zone, currently there is only one cross-border economic cooperation zone exist, and the running effect is unclear. Among the eight border provinces, local government support the border trade largest is Guangxi, the most support of foreign trade policy in the neighboring countries is Vietnam. In1990s, border trade policy and files appeared more densely, which caused the shock development of border trade into the last downturn. Along with China's economy to a soft landing, border trade step up rapidly since2002. At the same time, compared our border trade to other parts of the world, this part found the direction to promote the development of China's border trade.
Chapter four is the development characteristics of border trade in our country. On the basis of customs statistics HS eight bits of data, this part found that:the main border trade export provinces is Xinjiang Heilongjiang and Guangxi provinces, while the importer are Neimenggu,Xinjiang and Heilongjiang provinces; export products are mainly on textile industry, clothing shoes and hats manufacturing industry and leather fur feathers (fine hair) and its products industry, while the import are oil and gas industry, black metals extractive and mining industry, and coal washing industry; the main export products in Urumqi custom are men's and women's clothing suits and shoes boots products, in Haerbin custom are shoe parts, shoes, boots,in Nanning custom are women's clothes suit, vest and a pair of socks; import in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang are given priority to crude oil, and coal in Neimenggu. China and Russia, kazakhstan's border trade had structure complementation, the growing bilateral trade and investment between these countries will strengthen the degree of economic ties.
Chapter five is the analysis of "three pole development pattern" characteristics and factors influence the border trade growth. On the basis of above research, this chapter select the system of natural resources endowment, exchange rate, the host country, the number of bilateral investment agreement, per capita GDP, trade openness indicator measures, to establish gravity models. The consequence are:distance, the host country's GDP per capita income is still a significant factors that affect trade, but distance is a significant negative correlation, the per capita GDP is a significant positive correlation. In addition, the openness of host country is the factor with a positive impact on border trade. The natural resources endowment of host country has a great affect on China's imports from the country's border trade and the export of our provinces'. Quality of the system in the host country is negative correlate with China's imports from the country. The appreciation of the Renminbi is not benefit for the import and export of our country's border trade. But the signed of investment agreement is good for the export of China's border trade. The more closely of language culture for China's neighboring countries, the greater amount of export from China provinces to these countries. All these factors can explain why the "three pole development pattern" had birthed.
Chapter six is the trade cost of border trade. This part demonstrated policy dependence of border trade, as well as the low cost which caused the birth of border trade. By using "Chinese customs database", and empirical analysis with the help of gravity model which including two transport ways-sea and land, this part found that:the provinces of per capita area of trade is negative, the per capita area of foreign country is beneficial to the development of trade abroad; compared with shipping trade and non border trade, border trade costs more lower, but its advantage is reduced year by year; the border trade form China to Russia, north Korea, Vietnam, is likely to be the main source of border trade;"Comparative advantage" of border trade mainly comes from export trade; the collective, private enterprises and foreign enterprises actively participated in border trade, but state-owned enterprises in border trade is not good; similar products have more advantages in border trade, border trade have more obstacles for differentiated products. After comparison of different types of border trade, this part found that: the better development of border trade in major economies is because the core countries'economic level directly determines the border trade development level, the level of trade facilitation directly determines the border trade costs, border trade development cannot leave the good regional trade agreement and standard operation.
Chapter seven is the research on the trade facilitation of border trade. This part choose four major indicators to build the trade facilitation index system, including:port efficiency (mainly for the quality of highway transportation,railway transportation and port transportation, the number of days for import and export),customs administration (the number of documents required for import and export, customs efficiency evaluation, the universality of trade barriers, corruption perceptions index),regulation environment(transparency of government policymaking, judicial independence,public trust in politicians,favoritism in decisions of government officials) and e-business(the proportion of every100people use the internet, the speed of the internet). The empirical results are:China, kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam and Nepal, Mongolia, Tajikistan,all these countries have comparatively higher level of trade facilitation, and also the large export countries for our border trade. The econometric analysis demonstrate that the border trade is negative correlation between exports and distance, and the positive correlation between foreign population, and whether is a positive relationship between the SCO member states, but there is a negative correlation between join the same free trade zone organizations, on the whole, the OFDI of China is positively related to border trade.
Chapter eight is the research of border trade's effect on economic growth. Can border trade additionally promote economic growth? Based on the monthly datum from2000-2006from the Chinese Custom Database, and through different regression methods, this paper finds that border trade has an additional significant positive relationship with the provinces'GDP. The elasticity between border trade and the border provinces' GDP is0.05～0.06, and the elasticity between border trade and the GDP in all Chinese provinces is about0.015. The export growth of border province's state-owned enterprise and the level of technology raise do not contribute much to economic growth. From the vision of all the provinces, policy preferential index has sound positive influence on economic growth, and border provinces'economic growth is slower than those non-border provinces'. When testing the role of import border trade for the economic growth, this part found that import border trade and economic growth have not a steady relationship.
Chapter nine is the strategic countermeasures about border trade development. In order to avoid China's marginalization, to make good use of geopolitical advantage, our country should take new measures to foster the development of border trade, establish free trade zone along the border and sign bilateral trade and invest agreements with neighboring countries. On the basis of adequate consideration about the number and time of trade zone, economic strength and scope of radiation, the strategic significance of set up, this paper suggest to select Pingxiang and Manchurian posts as the two port free trade zones, and construct Huoerguos port into a regional logistics center and distribution center. The mainly innovation of policy are in the stream of people, logistics, financial, policy investment soft environment aspect, and design a system from the top, set up free zone committee, to promote the sustainable and healthy development of border trade in the end. We should make ready to undertake industrial transfer, get the industrial structure upgrade; have strategic vision in infrastructure construction and develop in advance; pay attention to the cooperation with big demonstration leading countries, promote power cooperation mechanism.
Through studies of contemporary Chinese border trade development overall situation, this paper tried to achieve these three angles of innovation:
Firstly, this paper mainly studied some factors that affecting the development of border trade, for example the degree of port trade facilitation, trade facilitation index in the neighbor countries, trade and investment policies in these countries, and so on, then tested the impact of these factors on the border trade, all these analysis have strong policy implications.
Secondly, when measuring the effect of border trade to economic growth, this paper did not only take the provinces border trade in account, but in the basis of all provinces and in the rest world for contrast analysis. Because of the border trade is not just in the border provinces, other provinces will be also involved in the process. Then analyse characteristics and significance of different port's development, in order to fing out the essences of policy.
Finally, this paper tried to explain how the border trade came about and provide some suggestion for the development of border trade. This paper from the perspective of trade costs to explain the theoretical basis of border trade's easy birth in some way. Meanwhile, on the basis of the development of border trade, this part suggested to established free trade zone along the border, promoted the great power cooperation mechanism, and keeped a low cost advantage, to expand the trade volume.
引文
1 见百度百科相关词条介绍http://baike.baidu.com/view/396544.htm。
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2 理论上存在货物通过南宁海关以海运的方式向越南的胡志明市这类远离边境的区域进行贸易的情况,但由于海关数据库无法区分是江河运输还是海路运输,且经计算发现这种情况十分少见(贸易方式不是边境小额贸易的交易每月仅有50例),故本文将这类情况完全当作边境贸易处理。沈阳海关、大连海关对朝鲜的贸易情况也大致相同,故一并混淆处理。
3 需要说明的是海关数据中会存在沿海、沿边省份的贸易在内陆海关进行报关的现象,但这些现象极为个别,完全可以忽略不计。
4 网址http://www.sjgdp.cn/show.php?id=265.
5 网址http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/442545335.
6 事实上由于地理因素,中俄之间纯粹意义上的海运贸易并不大,所谓的“江海运输”更多地是内河(黑龙江)的运输。但为保证结论的严谨,我们还是将俄罗斯联邦一并去除。
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7 Rivera-Batiz & Romer, (1991) "International trade with endogenous technological change," European Economic Riview 35,1-47.
8 该假设符合中国的企业未能掌握世界市场定价权的现实。
9 刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化[J].经济研究,2011(3)：72-83
10 由于gdp与出口(进口)的单位不一样,造成了出口(进口)的均值大于gdp的均值的现象。边境贸易的数据的对数值是原数据加1后再取对数算得的。
11 这9个省份分别是广东、广西、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、西藏、新疆、云南。
12 该现象可以用边境省份的边贸额占各省进出口总额比重较大来解释。
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2 理论上存在货物通过南宁海关以海运的方式向越南的胡志明市这类远离边境的区域进行贸易的情况,但由于海关数据库无法区分是江河运输还是海路运输,且经计算发现这种情况十分少见(贸易方式不是边境小额贸易的交易每月仅有50例),故本文将这类情况完全当作边境贸易处理。沈阳海关、大连海关对朝鲜的贸易情况也大致相同,故一并混淆处理。
3 需要说明的是海关数据中会存在沿海、沿边省份的贸易在内陆海关进行报关的现象,但这些现象极为个别,完全可以忽略不计。
4 网址http://www.sjgdp.cn/show.php?id=265.
5 网址http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/442545335.
6 事实上由于地理因素,中俄之间纯粹意义上的海运贸易并不大,所谓的“江海运输”更多地是内河(黑龙江)的运输。但为保证结论的严谨,我们还是将俄罗斯联邦一并去除。
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7 Rivera-Batiz & Romer, (1991) "International trade with endogenous technological change," European Economic Riview 35,1-47.
8 该假设符合中国的企业未能掌握世界市场定价权的现实。
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10 由于gdp与出口(进口)的单位不一样,造成了出口(进口)的均值大于gdp的均值的现象。边境贸易的数据的对数值是原数据加1后再取对数算得的。
11 这9个省份分别是广东、广西、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、西藏、新疆、云南。
12 该现象可以用边境省份的边贸额占各省进出口总额比重较大来解释。
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