非线性产业或经济系统的演化（创新）分析
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摘要
经济学发展到现在,对于研究纯粹理论的学者来说,都要求他们具备极高的科学素养(那些不将经济学视为科学的学者除外)。所以,那些仍旧认为地震可以短期精确预测的学者,显然对于快速发展了半个多世纪的非线性科学不太了解,也就不明白“如何处理整个人类社会有机性或非线性”问题。
一百多年前的学者也看到了社会系统的有机性或非线性问题(例如:马克思、马歇尔等等),但是当时的科学技术处理不了这个问题。
20世纪的科学技术和数学工具的发展使得处理非线性问题出现了曙光。至少在两个方面能够撬开非线性世界的一点端倪。一个方面是非线性规划的发展使得最优规划理论进入经济学(直接导致杨小凯使用超边际分析解决分工问题:创立新兴古典经济学),另一方面是非线性动态科学本身的高速发展(导致混沌经济学、演化经济学等等的进展)。
非线性这个问题也许难以短期彻底解决,但是一定会不断进展。
本文预言:在不久的未来,计算机技术将会借助非线性问题的进展彻底占据经济学的主流地位。这项技术不再是简单的用于经验数据的回归预测,而将成为主流形式化逻辑。
本文作者甚至计划在将来使用纯计算机程序的形式化逻辑写作一篇经济学论文。
基于本文强调形式化逻辑的理念,正文应该是包括所有的数理推导和计算机程序,文字说明部分反而应该放入附件。但是全文框架较大,所以仍旧将一些数理推导放入附件,以便精简正文,方便读者理解。
下面是本文主要内容摘要(本文征求意见稿件的字数总计约72万字,其中:正文约44万字,脚注和尾注约8万字,附录约20万字):
(一)
全文包含两个部分:第一个部分是建立一个新的分析框架;第二个部分是应用这个分析框架解释产业或经济系统的演化(创新)问题。
本文最初源自于一个极其庞大的研究计划:建立一个基础分析框架,这个框架可以用来解释所有经济领域以及与经济领域有关的社会问题。这个计划的产生受到杨小凯的影响:他希望用他的新兴古典经济学理论统一或融合所有的经济学理论。
这个计划不可能在本文的研究篇幅内完成!本文仅仅是个最初的理论基石。体现在本文的研究内容包括:建立一个“个人专业化—企业组织—产业结构—宏观经济”的形式化分析框架;将“瓦尔拉斯静态一般均衡”、“动态经济方法”和“计算机模拟现实”方法通过逐步放松假设衔接起来,形成一个前后一致的研究方法体系(并计算现实样本的各项指标,包括分工程度)、研究经济域和政务域共同构成的系统……
本文的研究领域涉及两个方向:分工(专业化)的作用、经济系统的有机性(或复杂性、或内部相关性、协同演化)。
本文具体的研究核心点是:制度、分工(专业化)、产业(或市场)系统的协同演化或有机性(或非线性、混沌系统、超循环)。
本文的形式化逻辑是通过分工、专业化的视角切入到经济系统来展开。产业或市场的演化是伴生过程
本文的目的之一:建立一个分工、专业化视角的理论分析框架(以此说明产业经济所有问题):本文的第二个目的是:从更接近现实的非线性和复杂性视角研究实际产业演化的规律。第二个目的与第一个目的构成一个硬币的两面,本质是一样的。理论的形式化的研究不仅是为了建立逻辑严密的分析框架,而且是为了分析现实,所以必须研究现实变化的真实路径,以求获得真实的逻辑:产业演化的规律研究是通过一个形式化框架进行推演,以求解释掩盖在现实表象浪花下的内在规律。
本文的研究框架也将展现现代科学方法论的演化过程,静态部分是确定性的牛顿物理的决定论范式,动态部分引入动态非线性和动态有机性,模拟部分体现计算机技术处理复杂性世界的优势。所有部分的逻辑将力求一致,形成一个前后承接的统一的分析框架(静态形式化,动态形式化,计算机模拟形式化,实际观察度量与验证)。
全文的研究可以看作由两个相互印证的主架构成:主架一,分工视角的形式化范式;主架二,产业或市场演化的本质。
全文的具体分析结构,除了文献评述和方法论的外,主要分析过程由:静态分析、动态分析,度量和样本分析和计算机模拟四个部分构成。其中静态分析是最基础的部分,这个部分假设较强,远离现实,以简化现实为目的建立基本的形式化逻辑体系。静态分析的组成成分中,新兴古典框架占优势比例;动态分析和计算机模拟是分析框架中复杂的高层的部分,这个部分逐步放松假设,逐步接近现实。,模拟部分甚至以与现实一致为目的,建立在目前经济学理论界全新的形式化分析工具。度量和样本分析是个辅助工具,是为了从现实中发现新规律和验证纯理论的逻辑推导结果。
本文的目的除了理论或方法创新外,也是为了研究分工视角的产业演化的深层原因。
本文在文献综述后,提出了二十个相关的问题,包括:问题一,分工的演化是单向的加强?何以判断分工水平的变化?;问题二,市场交易效率的更快提高将可能导致分工在企业间更快发展,企业平均规模将减小?分工大量在企业间发展是否会导致产业集中度的减小?;问题三,平均企业规模和总人口有什么关系?如果劳动力资源过剩或者短缺,情况会怎么变化?“规模经济”这个理论真的可以被分工理论替代?分工理论展现的规模效应到底如何?;问题四,同一产业中,不同分工结构如何竞争?同一分工或产业链条的体系中企业如何竞争?不同分工或产业链条之间,企业存在什么样的竞争?;问题五:产业分工链条的加长或者产业分工网络的更加复杂是否都会导致经济规模的加大?;问题六,如何保持规模经济报酬递增的假设又不妨碍竞争,这就是经济学理论中著名的马歇尔困境(Marshall Dilemma)。这个问题斯蒂格勒也给出了解释。是否有别的解释?;问题七:检验张永生的关于产业演化的论断:发展中的产业的特点是非垂直一体化,衰退产业的特点是垂直一体化;问题八:产业创新的源泉和方式是什么?;问题九:不同国家(美,日)的产业中分工结构或分工链的变化是否不同?;问题十,检验Jean Tirole的一个观点“成本差异对产业的影响”;问题十一,关于产业一体化问题;问题十二,重新检验斯蒂格勒对于Allyn Young的批评;问题十三,分工形式化理论和传统产业分析接轨:问题十四:检验斯密定理;问题十五,市场的本质是什么?;问题十六,制度与分工及产业演化的关系到底是什么?能否内生制度,建立一个数理分析框架。假如放在社会有机体的角度,如何体现制度与分工及产业的有机?;问题十七:专业化程度和交易成本的关系?;问题十八:政务域的分工(专业化)演化规律?;问题十九:企业何以产生,是否有其他解释?;问题二十:政府何以产生?
所有问题将在本文对分析框架的研究中尝试解决。
(二)
在研究分析框架前,本文首先进行经济学方法论的研究。研究主要进行了两项工作:归纳整理了经济学理论200多年的大致脉络;对于和经济学有关的近代新兴学科进行评述。这两项工作是为了本章后面建立一个分工研究框架服务的。
对于经济学理论,本文强调:观察视角、相干性、度量尺度、假设前提、形式化、交叉学科和工具等等作用。
方法论研究中把包含政务专业化的分工系统当作一个有机系统进行研究,并初步设计一个研究有机系统的指导原则。
方法论研究确定了论文全文的方法是:坚持数理形式化和文字逻辑的结合,并且加入计算机逻辑的形式化研究。研究会从静态开始,到动态,到计算机程序模拟。这个过程是一个逐步放松假设的过程。
静态分析的最大局限在于时间(优点在于便于得到解析解)、动态分析的最大局限在于非线性动态方程很难得到解析解(优点在于时间假设被放松)、计算机模拟的最大局限在于很难得到细致的实际数据来还原现实的轨迹(优点在于相对不受时间、计算能力、参数数量、限制条件数量等等因素的限制)。
(三)
静态形式化研究是分析框架的第一个构件。这个构件仍旧是使用新兴古典范式:比较静态一般均衡分析。
静态形式化研究是将政务的专业化化纳入分工的静态数理形式化框架,这是从未出现的研究角度。
静态的研究使用超边际分析来寻求静态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡下的最优解并得到全社会的帕累托最优。
因为纳入政务专业化后,用于简化超边际分析的新兴古典的文定理不再适合,那么本文首次推导了适用于内涵政务专业化的简化超边际分析的定理3.1(本文命名为Chen定理),这个定理仅仅适用于特定条件下的静态态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡。
静态形式化研究的所有结论仅在静态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡下成立,结论如下:
第一,证明了人口规模对于一般均衡的限制。“那么区分是否完全专业化政务的临界点实际上就是人口条件(3.33)。一个人口稀少的社会不能实现完全专业化政务。其中原因之一就是:没有足够的产出支撑政务的完全专业化。”。
并且得到一个猜想3.2(第六型规模效应):一国政务专业化的程度和种类与人口规模有关。
第二,关于政务的问题(政务出现的原因?演化的方向?制度(政务)—分工—市场三体共进问题。),情况基本和前面验证Allyn·Young(1928)的观点时一样。如果和完全自给自足结构比较本文已经得到制度(政务)—分工—市场共同演进的结论。但是这个结论没有现实意义。
定理3.1证明了政务专业化程度高的情况下的决策优势。
为什么“两个交易效率参数的加权比较竟然能够区分政务是否会出现在完全依赖市场分工的结构”?这被本文称为一个谜3.11也本文被称为猜想3.4。这也另外得到一个猜想3.5:过高的外生交易效率会阻碍政务的产生。
那么政务的产生有什么规律?本文作如下总结性判断:政务的产生一定与相关结构的交易效率有关;政务的产生也和人口、a等参数相关。(三个结构的每一个条件中,与本结构有关的交易效率种类和相对的结构的相关交易效率种类共同构成的加权比较。)
第三,当出现中间产品时,在杨小凯的“引理8.1”和杨小凯“企业的生成”的数理形式化中,本文认为杨小凯出现一个重大疏漏:在最终产品生产函数中,本文不认同杨小凯的设定中间产品投入的(指数)权重参数的范围。
本文重新设定了包含中间产品的最终产品生产函数。在考虑政务的情况下,对于中间产品的权重(或贡献度)a进行重新研究,本文重新证明了不同产权结构企业的a的范围条件(3.38b**)和有政务专业化的不同产权结构企业a的范围条件(3.38b*****)。
并形成本文的猜想3.3:企业的雇主是谁和中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率相关。(因为最优结构中,个人最终产品生产函数中,l_y总是“1”所以,l_y的指数权重在此分析中不受影响)。
本文证明了:这个猜想3.3在一定条件下成立。
第四,关于“企业的产生”:所有的企业模式都需要先决条件,这个先决条件至少和a的取值区间密切相关;
所有的企业类型成立的条件都和“不同的种类的交易效率之间的加权组合”有关,而且这些交易效率中至少包括“企业内中间产品x的转换效率或企业内管理效率k_(35)”;在针对完全市场分工结构的条件时,相关条件至少还包括中间产品x的产品市场交易效率(1+k_(31));
通过生成包含企业的一般均衡分析,本文发现中间产品贡献参数a在区分不同一般均衡结构中起到极其重要的作用。这个作用甚至在大多结构中优先于交易效率参数的作用。a的这个作用被杨小凯等学者忽略;
包含政务的两个企业产权结构的比较,也就是条件“(3.50e)或(3.48f)”:这是四种交易效率“最终产品y的产品市场交易效率(1+k_(32))、中间产品x专家和最终产品y专家的劳动力市场交易效率(1+k_(33))和(1+k_(34))、企业内中间产品x的转化效率或管理效率(1+k_(35))”加权组合与临界点k_(19)的比较,这个临界点由参数“a、t、ω、c”加权构成。
B类迂回认为与完全没有政务的自给自足相比,政务的出现也是与不同种类的交易效率比较相关。当然绝对不能排除其他参数(影响因素)的作用。
第五,关于静态形式化研究章节的创新点之一:B类一般性迂回(m＞2)中,有企业的结构可能尚未在新兴古典的文献中出现(需要查询最新文献确认)过,有企业和政务的模型肯定没有在现有的所有文献中出现过。本文对此的研究也是一个理论补充。而且,针对产业分析的范式,必须有企业。
第六:关于分工的产生。本文推导的结果认为:“交易效率的增加导致结构从自给自足跃进到分工结构”仅仅是分工产生的一个条件。杨小凯的模型仅仅坚持这个条件是片面的!
本文的迂回模型(A、B类)都发现了有的分工结构的出现,尤其复杂分工结构的出现需要不同种类交易效率参数的比较。这是杨小凯的新兴古典研究没有注意的。
分工是人类社会的常态,没有分工很难产生人类社会,完全自给自足的个体难以组成人类社会。所以,完全自给自足结构作为其他分工结构比较的基点,太勉强!
具体的不同分工结构需要具体分析。
本文发现:数理形式上,不同的分工结构仅仅需要突破与自给自足有关的条件组3.44a系列中的一个对应条件就可以实现分工。也就是说条件组3.44a系列中任何一个条件被突破都可能产生某一个分工结构!突破条件组3.44a是分工产生的必要条件。
但是,“分工突破自给自足而产生”是交易效率提高的结果吗?本文认为这个论断并不确定!交易效率对于“分工突破自给自足而产生”至少不是充分必要条件,至多是必要条件!
AB类迂回都得出分工的出现是不同类型交易效率之间的比较。这个结论与新兴古典学派(杨小凯等)的研究不相符合。
第七,重新设计了B类迂回的一般模式(m＞2)。
关于中间产品种类数m,本文的B类迂回研究认为,“m和交易效率k的相互影响关系”需要根据参数a(中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献度)的不同范围确定。这个发现与杨小凯等学者的发现不同。
也就是说:新产品种类的增加并不必然与k正相关。(在没有企业的纯市场结构中,这种必然的正相关仅仅在a的范围0＜a＜1/2时才成立。也就意味着中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率不能过高!)
第八,第一次推导了C类迂回的一般模式。尤其包含政务专业化的一般形式从未在文献中出现过。
C类迂回推导中得到猜想3.4:用以表述中间产品价格和产出的一般形式。
第九,C类迂回的研究再一次发现:在最终产品生产函数中,中间产品的影响因子(参数β)的重要性,这个因子在A类迂回中表现为参数a。这是一个被新兴古典学者忽略的发现。新兴古典的学者或杨小凯将主要精力都放在了交易效率参数的影响上。
对于C类迂回的链条扩展,只要相关科技能够出现,或者创新能够完成,那么就有趋势无限扩大迂回链条,这是一个正反馈的过程。这也可以解析工业革命的出现。但是需要注意到的是外生约束仍旧存在,例如:总人口和外生交易效率参数的约束。人口可以解释为总市场的约束。而且本文强调的政务专业化也加入了整个正反馈系统。
为什么工业革命出现在西方世界?因为他们启动并进入了这个正反馈的过程,工业革命后西方世界不断地向外开拓新的市场,新的市场又促进正反馈的继续进行…
第十,C类的迂回分工一个结论验证了技术创新的一个规律,也证实了杨小凯和Shi and Yang(1995)的C类模型的论断:“当迂回程度继续增加时..,第一台蒸汽发动机比一匹马更慢而且更加昂贵”。
而且税率的高低使得C类迂回出现完全差异的产品创新路径!
第十一,通过本章的形式化推导,会明白:为什么所有的超过两人以上的宏观现象都是以微观个人为基础建立起来的。这是新兴古典和杨小凯的理论的特点所在。也就如本文最开始哪句话“究微末变化,演天下大势”。当然,新兴古典的优势在于推导静态的一般均衡体系。
第十二,B类迂回的研究认为:基于本文的m与k的研究,本文不同意杨锌赜谛虏泛凸ひ祷慕崧邸?
本文并不认为交易效率一定促进新产品的种类出现。
而且本文也不认为工业化道路中工业品的加速增加与交易效率增加必然相关。这种必然的正相关仅仅在a的范围0＜a＜1/2时才成立。也就意味着中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率不能过高!
静态形式化研究存在一些局限(详见正文第三章最后一节),例如:假设前提、“最优结构是怎么突然从无到有的?”和“最优结构如何从局部结构扩散成全局结构?”、经济组织的演化模式可能出现各种不同类型的结构、“变量的变动范围”、“资本(或资产)存量”对于一般均衡的影响、时间假设、淘汰和生存咱标准、非确定性与非线性、关于交易效率参数(与时间有关)的动态变化与内生政务的影响…等等。
第三章以后,论文的研究将走向与杨小凯截然不同的两条道路,本文的理论范式将不再以求得最优模式为研究目标!
论文后面的部分也需求弥补静态的缺陷。
(四)
动态形式化的研究是在放松静态形式化的一些假设基础上进行的。在弥补前一章节静态分析的缺陷的基础上,这一部分有两个大目标需要解决,是:第一,建立一个分工(含政务专业化)的动态形式化框架;第二,动态形式化与分析有机系统联系起来。
这一部分主要进行的工作是建立动态分析框架,这个框架包主要针对:政务专业化、分工、有机系统、稳态(homeostasis)、与静态分析有一定的逻辑承接、非均衡、保持个人角点决策模式、经济域与非经济域(社会背景:政务、文化…)、创新等等问题建立的。本章基本完成了基于政务专业化的针对分工的动态形式化框架的推演。
针对动态,提出了十九条改进意见。针对有机系统提出了三点改进;针对静态缺陷和分工系统的动态,提出了十四条改进要点、采纳了“拟种”间竞争(或分工结构间竞争)的思路。针对动态形式化又重新研究明确了对“适应值”、“竞争”、有机系统及其稳定(“稳态(homeostasis)”)、数理形式化“社会背景”等问题的处理办法
综合以上改进,本章还提出了建立动态形式化框架的具体内容。其中提出:将动态分析框架分两个部分框架。框架一,演化博弈分析创新的出现:框架二,逻辑斯蒂演化方程分析包含政务的两结构产业。
本部分对于这两个框架进行了推演,并成功的展示分工的动态形式化过程。推演的范例是:人类的起源(家庭分工结构的产生与稳定)。第一个原始家庭在动态数理形式化中出现,于是社会开始萌芽,人类的起源开始。
(五)
运用前面静态形式化的研究成果,本文重新推演了青木昌彦等学者对于美国和日本的比较经济模式研究。成功的演化了两国的不同产业或经济系统模式。
运用动态形式化的研究成果,本文成功的推演了5000年的中国历史模式,这个模式曾经被一些学者研究,本文的研究是独特的数理模型。但是本文并不认为这个模式能够具有替代其他学者的研究范式,因为幅员辽阔的中国社会的复杂性并不能那么简单的用一个视角的模式表达。
运用动态形式化的研究成果,本文成功的推演了中国自1978年以来的30年的产业发展模式。这个推演尝试表达各种不同产业在中国改革中的不同演化路径。
在推演中国5000年代的形式化时:本文首次在此出现政务内部的分工(两类专业)。
(六)
为了经验数据的检验,本文重新发展出一套度量分工程度的指标体系,并且认为这个指标体系强于杨小凯的指标体系(他的体系是基于静态一般均衡)。
应用指标体系,本文对实际数据进行了度量分析。这一数据来自于对江西财经大学的西区餐饮业的长时间直接观察所得。直接观察法又被文化人类学、考古学称为“田野调查”。
(七)
计算机模拟是本文形式化研究的最后一个构架。这个构架的目标在于尽量还原现实演化轨迹的基础上推演形式化模式,这个形式化模式不是用文字或数学表达,而是计算机程序。
因为本文强调的是形式化过程,所以计算机程序表示的形式化逻辑应该放在正文。但是因为程序过于庞大(论文篇幅也过大),所以只能暂时放在附录。关于程序的文字说明部分应该放在附录,正文仅仅保留必要的程序说明,以保持读者对这一章的完整理解。详细的程序和运行说明见论文所附光盘。
这一部分的模拟有三个范例:对于市场竞争过程的研究;对于企业分工与经营研究:对于产业的演化研究。前两个范例的数据是基于江财西区快餐业的研究,最后一个范例是针对南昌餐饮业的四年演化还原。
模拟三的研究过程及其复杂,计算机随机生成100家不同企业的复杂经营行为,涉及的程序规模非常庞大。企业和政府等参数来自于现实数据。
本文猜想这种模拟方法是否可以广泛用于历史研究,并发展出一门新的学科“模拟史学”。
事实上,对于计算机模拟发展出的形式化方法是本文认为最有可能冲击并彻底改变主流经济学方法的一项革命性趋势,整个21世纪的经济研究将完全改变范式。
值得注意的是模拟三中,交易成本和制度效率都出现了具体数值,分工程度也出现了长达四年的具体数值.交易效率参数在模拟中出现了复杂的变化,这些变化不可能在数理模型中出现。
理论上,模拟三可以扩展到其他不同行业和地区,甚至用于国家层面或世界层面的分析,区别在于参数的设置和工作量的不同。
(八)
全文的研究成果大致有:对于分工理论提出很多新的观点;对于分工形式化方法不仅仅补入了政务专业化这个内容而且尝试在研究方法上进行创新(将静态、动态、计算机模拟结合起来);运用本文的分工形式化研究成果对现实进行分析。
因为本文是新的研究视角,所以很多研究成果可能是首次出现或全新视角的证明。几个主要的创新是:
第一,政务专业化的分工形式化的工作迄今没有看到类似的研究。内涵政务专业化后,能将交易效率参数k中与政府有关的一部分因素剥离出来内生化;
第二,推导定理3.1,用于简化政务专业化的分工形式化超边际分析;
第三,动态方面,放弃了新兴古典的均衡思想,采用了演化经济学常采用的非均衡设定,试图使分析框架更加接近现实。这项研究对于分工的形式化是重大补充;
第四,采用了“现实模拟”的方式进行分工视角的现实行业(产业)分析,计算机模拟也放弃了均衡思想;
第五,因为对于非均衡思想的采用和现实分析的目的,分工的度量指标放弃了新兴古典原有的指标设计,重新设计了一套新的指标并进行了现实数据的样本分析。这套指标笔者认为比杨小凯的指标更加实用。
全文有些缺陷,有些需要留待以后解决,例如:定理3.1仍旧是个特定条件下的定理,没有一般化。定理3.1(Cheng定理)的企业形式没有在本文单独证明,有待在以后重新证明。(这会导致进行产业分析过程的逻辑漏洞);政务分工的形式化(静态,动态,计算机模拟)分析没有做一般性推导;因为需要,所以大着胆子对经济学说进行了一个粗浅的疏理。这个疏理的漏缺之处可能较多;非经济域或政务域同样存在分工结构,那么多样化的政务和经济分工共同形成的系统的数理形式化将非常复杂,这不是本文能够解决的!;C类迂回的一般形式(中间产品种类大于1)的解析遇到一个难题:这个难题是因为出现几何级数,本文不能得到常规状态下的几何级数的简化形式。;最优规划的出现使得解决角点问题出现可能。但是,必须注意的是:最优规划并不都有解析解;全程的最优方法最适用于静态一般均衡;迄今为止,所有的研究(包括本文)都不能很好的解决不完全专业化的分工问题。不完全专业化导致可能性太多,一旦放松假设,那么将难以解析;对于制度,因为以本文目前的处理技术,还无法掌控制度的回归分析,所以本文的制度都是间接反映在一些参数上,例如:交易效率参数k(k是承袭新兴古典惯例)。
The rapid development of economics requires scholars who study pure economic theory a high scientific attainment.As a result,those who still believe that earthquake can be accurately predicted in short time doesn't really know much about nonlinear science,thus feeling confused about "how to deal with the organic or nonlinear problems in human society."
Scholars of a century ago,such as Karl Marx and Michelle,have already noticed the organic or nonlinear problems,which could not be handled with contemporary science and technology.
Two important steps have been made in nonlinear science with the development of 20~(th)-century scientific technology and mathematics.One is the introduction of optimum programming theory into economics.The other is the rapid development of nonlinear dynamics.
This paper predicates that computer technology will become the mainstream of economics with the progress of nonlinear science in the not-too-distant future.The author has a plan to compose a thesis on economics with formal logic of pure computer procedure.
Below is the abstract of the paper.
(Ⅰ)
The main aim of the paper is to quest the future of economic theory,then the division theory and application will be researched.
This paper originated from a tremendous research plan:to establish a fundamental analysis framework,which can explain all social problems in all economic fields and related problems.
The birth of the plan has been affected by Yang Xiaokai.He hopes to inosculate all economic theory by his new classical economic theory.
However,this paper is just an initial theoretical principal.That is to build a formal analysis framework of"personal specialization - Business organizations - the industrial structure - macro-economic";to link up" Walrasian static general equilibrium," "dynamic economy" and "Computer simulation of reality" approach through the gradual relaxation of the assumption to form a coherent system of research methods(and calculate the index of reality sample,including the degree of labor division),and to study the system constituted by economic domain and administrative domain...
Areas of research in this article involves two directions:the labor division (specialization)、the role of the organic nature of the economic system(or the complexity or internal、relevance of co-evolution).
the Specific research core point in this article is:the system,labor division(specialized)、co-evolution of industry(or market) system or organic(or non-linear chaotic system,Hypercycle).
In this paper,the adoption of formal logic starts from perspective of specialized labor division into the economic system.Evolution of industry or market interacts with each other.
One of the purposes of this article:to establish a theoretical analytical framework of specialized perspective of labor division(to illustrate all the problems in industrial economy);the second objective of this paper is:to study the law of the actual industrial evolution from the perspective of nonlinear and complexity which is closer to the reality.The second purpose and the first one form two faces of a coin which is in essence the same.Formal study of the theory can not only to establish a rigorous analysis of the logical framework,but also to study the true path of the changing realities in order to obtain true logic;the law study of the industry evolution is deducted through a formal framework in order to explain the inherent law covered up the appearance of spray.
Research framework of this article will also show the evolution of modern scientific methodology process,in which the static part is of Newton's physics decision paradigm,the dynamic part is of the introduction of dynamic non-linear and dynamic organic nature,and the stimulation part shows the advantage of the computer technology to deal with the complexity of the world.Logic of all parts will seek to form similarity and a unified analysis framework(static formalization,dynamic formalization,computer simulation formalization and actual observation of measurement and verification).
The full text of the study can be seen as evidence by two of the main structure as follows:the main frame is a formula from perspective of labor division;the second frame is the nature of the evolution of industry or the market.
The main analysis process is constituted of static analysis,dynamic analysis,and measure and sample analysis and computer simulation.Static analysis is one of the most basic parts,which has a strong assumption far away from reality,establishing the basic system of formal logic for the purpose of simplifying reality.In the composition of the static analysis the new classical framework is of the dominant ratio; dynamic analysis and computer simulation is of the complex high-level part in the analysis framework,which is of the gradual relaxation of some assumptions,and gradually closer to reality.The purpose of simulation part is in line with reality based on the current formal sector,a new analysis tools.Measure and sample analysis are assistant tools in order to discover new laws and to verify the logic of theoretical results from the reality.
In addition to theoretical or methodological innovation,the purpose of this paper is also to study the underlying causes of the industry evolution from the perspective of labor division.
This paper,after literature review,proposed 20-related issues,including:
1.Is the evolution of labor division strengthened in one-way? How to determine changes in the level of labor division?
2.Will the efficiency of market transactions lead to faster development of the labor division in enterprises and reduce the average size of enterprises? Will large number of inter-firm labor division lead to the decrease of industrial concentration?
3.What is the relationship between an average size of enterprise and the total population? What the situation will be in the shortage or surplus of labor resources? How is the scale effect shown by theory of labor division?
4.How different division of the structure to compete in the same industry? How the enterprises in the same or different labor division or industrial chain business?
5.Will the lengthening of the chain of industrial labor division or complexity of networks of industrial labor division lead to greater economies of scale?
6.How to maintain the assumption of increasing returns of scale economy which is not anti-competitive(Marshall Dilemma).This problem is also given an explanation by Stigler.Is there any other explanation?
7.to test the inference of Yong-Sheng Zhang on the evolution of industries:the characteristic of developing industry is non-vertical integration,while that of declining industry is vertical integration.
8.What is the means and source of industrial innovation?
9.Are there any differences in the changes of the division chain or division structure in different countries(the United States and Japan)?
10.To test a point of view of Jean Tirole:the impace of cost difference to industry.
11.with regard to the issue of industrial integration
12.Re-examine Stigler's criticism to Allyn Young
13.The integration of formal theory of the labor division and practice of traditional industry analysis;
14.Smith theorem test;
15.What is the nature of the market?;
16.What is the relationship between the system and the evolution of labor division?
17.The relationship between degree of specialization and transaction costs?
18.The evolution rule of the division of the administrative domain (professionalism)?
19.How the enterprise came into being? are there other explanations?;
20.How government came into being?
The attempt to solve all the questions will be done in the study of analysis framework in the paper.
(Ⅱ)
This article first studies the economic research methodology before the analysis framework.The research carries out two major tasks:to collate and analyze the general context of the economic theory in more than 200 years;to review the emerging modern disciplines relating to economics.Both are for establishing research framework for the labor division behind this chapter.
For economic theory,the paper stresses the functions of observation of the perspectives,coherence,measurement scales,assumptions,formalization, cross-disciplinary and tools and so on.
In the study of methodology,system of labor division,which includes administrative specialization,is studied as an organic system,and guiding principles are designed to study the organic systems.
Research methodology determines the method of the full text:to uphold the combination of formal mathematical and logical of text with the formal study of computer logic.Study will be started from a static to dynamic,and to the simulation computer program.This process is a process of gradual relaxation of the assumption.
The biggest limitations of static analysis is time(the advantage is easy to obtain analytical solution),the biggest limitations of dynamic analysis is the difficulty to obtain nonlinear dynamic equation analytic solution(the advantage is of time relaxation),the biggest limitations of computer simulation is the difficulty to obtain detailed data to restore the reality of the actual track(the merit is that this is relatively unrestricted by time,computing power,the number of parameters,constraints limit number and other factors).
(Ⅲ)
Static formal study is the first component of the analysis framework.This component still uses new classical paradigm:comparative static analysis of general equilibrium.
Static Formal research is the formal mathematical framework which put administrative specialization into labor division;this is point of view which has never been used.
Exploring the use of passive infra-marginal analysis to find the static Walrasian general equilibrium under the optimal solution and Pareto optimality of society as a whole.
after being put into the administrative specialization,the new classical theorem that to simplify the infra-marginal analysis is no longer suitable,then this article for the first time deduced the infra-marginal analysis theorem 3.1(Theorem Chen named in this article) suitable to the administrative specialization.This theorem only applies under certain conditions in a static state of the Walrasian general equilibrium.
All the conclusions of static formal study can be true only in the static Walrasian general equilibrium.Here are the following conclusions:
1.it proves that the size of the population restricts the general equilibrium."Then the critical point to distinguish whether it is a complete administrative specialization is in fact the conditions of the population(3.33).A sparsely populated community cannot fully be administratively specialized.One of the reasons is there is no enough output to support the complete administrative specialization."
And get conjecture 3.2(scale-Ⅵ):degree and types of a country's administrative specialization relate to population size.
2.with regard to the administrative issue(reasons,evolution direction? System (administration) - labor division - the market.) The situation is basically the same with that of authentication of Allyn·Young(1928).If compared with the complete self-sufficient structure,this article has already got the conclusion that system (administration) - the labor division - the markets develop in the same progress. However,there is no practical significance to this conclusion. Theorem 3.1 proves decision-making advantages in the Case of a high degree of administrative specialization.
Why "two transaction efficiency parameters compared can distinguish whether the administration will appear in the structure depending entirely on of the labor division"? This is known as a mystery 3.1 of this articlel In this paper,it is also known as the conjecture 3.4.There is also another conjecture 3.5:if the exogenous transaction efficiency is too high,it will hinder the emergence of the administration.
So what is the discipline of the emergence of administration? This article summary as follows:Administration's emergence is related to certain transaction efficiency, population and A parameters.(The structure of each of the three conditions,with the structure of the transaction types and the relative efficiency of the structure of the relevant type of transaction efficiency compared weighted together.)
3.when there is intermediate product,in Yang's "Lemma 8.1" and Yang" business generation" mathematical formalization,this paper argues that there is a significant omission:In the final product of the production function,this article do not agree with Yang's the scope of the weighing parameters of the set of intermediate inputs(index).
This article re-set contains the final products production function including intermediate goods.In considering the case of the administration,also re-studies intermediate products weighting parameter A(or contribution).this paper proves the range of different property rights of business conditions(3.38b **) and the range of different professional property with administrative specialization(3.38b *****). And forming the conjecture 3.3 of this article:that who the employer of enterprises is relates to contribution rate of the intermediate products in the final production. (Because in the optimal structure,the individual production functions of the final product,ly is always "1" so ly weight of the index will not be affected in this analysis). In this paper,we prove Conjecture 3.3 will be set up under certain conditions.
4.with regard to "the emergence of Enterprise":All the business models require a prerequisite,which is at least closely related to the interval A;
The establishment conditions of all types of enterprises are related to "weighted array among different types Of transaction efficiency," including at least" conversion efficiency of intermediate products x in the enterprise or the management efficiency k35of enterprise ";in response to conditions of division of the complete structure of the market,the conditions also at least include product market transaction efficiency (1 + k31)including intermediate products x;
By general equilibrium analysis including enterprises,this article found intermediate goods contribution parameter A plays a vital role in distinguishing between different general equilibrium structures.The role even takes precedence over transaction efficient parameters in the most of structure.A's role has been ignored by Yang and other scholars;
Comparison of property right structure of two companies(including administration)is the conditions "(3.50e) or(3.48f)":This is comparison between four types weighted array of transaction efficiency—"the final product y product market transaction efficiency(1 + k32),intermediate goods x experts and experts in the final product y trading efficiency of the labor market(1 + k33) and(1 + k34),enterprise transformation of intermediate products x efficiency or managerial efficiency(1 + k35) "—and the critical point.The critical point is constituted by the parameters "a,t,w, c".
Type B winding thinks compared with self-government without any administration, the emergence of the administration is also associated with different types of transaction efficiency.Of course,we cannot absolutely rule out the role of other parameters(factors).
5.One of the innovative sections of static formal research:in B-type general circuitous(m＞2),there may not have been found the structure of enterprises in the classical literature there(need to check with the latest literature) and that there is certainly not have been found model of government andenterprises in the existing literature.This paper theoretically added content to study.Moreover,there must be a business for the paradigm of industry analysis.
6.With regard to the emergence of labor division.The results of this paper said:"The increase in transaction efficiency result in the structure leaping from self-sufficiency to structure of the labor division" is only a condition resulting in the labor division. Yang's model only insisted that the condition is one-sided!
In this paper,the indirect model(A,B type) are found in the emergence of some labor division structure,in particular the emergence of the complex labor division structure require different types of transaction efficiency parameters.This is an aspect which Yang paid no attention in new classic study.
Labor division is the norm of human society,without which there will be no chance of haman society.Therefore,it is very hard to take the completely self-supporting structure as the base of the other division structure.
Different division structures need concrete analysis.
This paper found:mathematically,the different structure of the labor division can be achieved just when breaking a corresponding condition of the conditions of the group a series 3.44a relating to self-sufficiency.This means breakthrough of any condition of Section 3.44a series can emerge a division of the structure! Breaking the conditions of Section 3.44a is a necessary condition for the labor division generation. However,is the "labor division created breakthrough self-sufficiency" the results of higher transaction efficiency? This article does not determine that!
Class AB both find that emergence of the division is comparison between the different types of transaction efficiency.This conclusion does not conform to the study with the New Classical School(Yang,etc.)
7.Re-design of the general pattern of the B category winding(m＞2).
The increase in the types of new products does not necessarily positively correlated with k.(In the absence of pure market structure of enterprises,this is bound to be set up the positive correlation only in a range of 0＜a＜1 / 2.It means that the intermediate goods production in the contribution of the final product rate cannot be too high!)
8.To derivate the general pattern of C-type around for the first time.
Then we get conjecture 3.4:for the expression of intermediate goods prices and the general form of output.
9.Rediscovery of C Class circuitous research:in the final product production function, the importance of the impact factor of the intermediate products(parameterβ).This factor is parameter a in the A category.This is a new discovery neglected by new classic scholars.
10.A discipline has been confirmed of C type:"When the level of the roundabout continues to increase..,The first steam engine will be more slowly than a horse but also more expensive."
11.From the formal derivation of this chapter,we will understand:the reason why all macro-phenomena more than two people involved are based on individual micro-established.
12.B-type indirect studies suggest that:In this paper,based on the study of m and k, this article does not agree with the conclusions of industrialization of new products made by Yang.
This article does not consider that transaction efficiency is certain s to promote the emergence of new types of products.
There are some limitations of the static formal study,for example:based on the assumption,"how the optimal structure becomes something out of nothing in a sudden?" And "how the best structure get the proliferation of local structure into the overall structure? ",the evolution model of economic organization may be of different types of structure," the changing scope of variables ",the impact of" capital(or assets) of the stock "for the general equilibrium effects,time assumptions,the survival standard,non-identified and non-linear,dynamics of change and endogenous administration of trading efficiency parameters(with time) the...and so on.
After ChapterⅢ,the paradigm of the theory in this article will no longer take achievement of the optimal model as study the target!
(Ⅳ)
Dynamic formal study is based on certain assumptions of the relaxation of static formalization.Here are two main targets:firstly,the establishment of a dynamic formal framework of labor division(including administrative specialization);second, connection of dynamic formalization and organic system analysis.
In this part the main work is to establish dynamic analysis framework aiming at: administrative specialization,division of labor and organic systems,steady-state (homeostasis),certain logic static analysis,non-balance,personal decisions Corner model,the economic domain and non-economic domain(social backgrounds: administration,culture and so on...),innovation.
19 proposed improvements are raised to dynamic.For Organic system there are three improvements;and so on.
Taking all these improvements,this chapter also proposed methods to establish dynamic formal framework.Which put forward:fordynamic analysis framework can be divided into two parts.A framework,the emergence of innovation of evolutionary Game Analysis;B framework,Logisticanalysis of evolution equations contain the two-government structure of industry.
(Ⅴ)
the paper successfully deducted 5000-year Chinese history model with the research results of the dynamic formalization.
The paper successfully deducted the 30-year pattern of industrial development in China since 1978 with the research results of dynamic formalization.In Deduction of 5000-year formalization in China,this article for the first time raised this division of labor in administration(two professions).
(Ⅵ)
In order to test empirical data,this article re-develop a set of indicators to qualify the extent of labor division system,and we claim that the indicator system is stronger than the index system proposed by Yang(his system is based on a static general equilibrium).
Application of indicators,the paper made quality analysis of the actual data.This data comes from long-time direct observation to the Western restaurants in Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics.
(Ⅶ)
Computer simulation is the final framework for the formal study in this paper.The aim of this framework is to deduct formal model on the basis of restoring reality evolution track;the formal model is not expressed in words or mathematics,but a computer program.
There are three examples in the simulation of this part:the study of market competition process;the study of business labor division and management;the study of evolution of the industry.
The research process of simulation 3 is of great complexity;to restore the complex management behavior of the 100 different business enterprises in reality is a very large procedure.
This article made a conjecture whether such simulations can be widely used in historical research and to develop a new discipline,"Simulation of History."
(Ⅷ)
research results of the full text of are:new ideas of the theory of labor division;new content of administrative specialization to methods of labor division formalization and innovations of research methods(combination of static,dynamic and computer simulation);analysis of reality with the research results of labor division formalization.
A lot of new research results appear in this article appears,in which some maybe innovative as bellows:
1.The study of labor division formalization of administrative specialization is innovative.After the content of the Chief of specialization,transaction efficiency parameter k can be in part related to the Government to divest from biochemical factors;
2.Theorem 3.1 is derived for inframarginal analysis of labor division formalization of the simplification of administrative specialization;
3.In the dynamic context,this paper gives up the new classical ideas of balance,using non-equilibrium setting usually adopted in the evolutionary economics,and tries to make analytical framework more realistic.
4.This paper made industries(industries) analysis in the use of a "realistic simulation" approach from perspective of labor division;
5.A new set of indicators we designed to make sample analysis of truthful data.
There are also some flaws in the paper to be solved.For instance,we don't generalize Theorem 3.1,which can be proved only under certain conditions;we cannot acquire all latest materials in every knowledge points especially English materials;this paper doesn't make general deduction to the formal analysis of administrative labor division; as a doctoral dissertation,the subject of this paper may be too large;
In this paper,the process of mathematical proof is still not very tight,many places remain to be improved;the analysis of the general form of C-type around(types of intermediate goods is greater than 1) encounters a problem:it was because of the emergence of geometric series,this article cannot get the simplified geometric forms in normal condition;The emergence of the optimal planning solution makes possible angle points.However,it must be noted that:the best planning does not have the analytical solution;the best practices is most appropriate for a static general equilibrium;so far,all studies(including this article) cannot be a good solution to labor division Of incomplete specialization.There are many better tools in Modern technology to determine the chaotic(fractal,steady-state) nature;the system,because current technology in this article isn't so mature,cannot control the regression analysis.
一百多年前的学者也看到了社会系统的有机性或非线性问题(例如:马克思、马歇尔等等),但是当时的科学技术处理不了这个问题。
20世纪的科学技术和数学工具的发展使得处理非线性问题出现了曙光。至少在两个方面能够撬开非线性世界的一点端倪。一个方面是非线性规划的发展使得最优规划理论进入经济学(直接导致杨小凯使用超边际分析解决分工问题:创立新兴古典经济学),另一方面是非线性动态科学本身的高速发展(导致混沌经济学、演化经济学等等的进展)。
非线性这个问题也许难以短期彻底解决,但是一定会不断进展。
本文预言:在不久的未来,计算机技术将会借助非线性问题的进展彻底占据经济学的主流地位。这项技术不再是简单的用于经验数据的回归预测,而将成为主流形式化逻辑。
本文作者甚至计划在将来使用纯计算机程序的形式化逻辑写作一篇经济学论文。
基于本文强调形式化逻辑的理念,正文应该是包括所有的数理推导和计算机程序,文字说明部分反而应该放入附件。但是全文框架较大,所以仍旧将一些数理推导放入附件,以便精简正文,方便读者理解。
下面是本文主要内容摘要(本文征求意见稿件的字数总计约72万字,其中:正文约44万字,脚注和尾注约8万字,附录约20万字):
(一)
全文包含两个部分:第一个部分是建立一个新的分析框架;第二个部分是应用这个分析框架解释产业或经济系统的演化(创新)问题。
本文最初源自于一个极其庞大的研究计划:建立一个基础分析框架,这个框架可以用来解释所有经济领域以及与经济领域有关的社会问题。这个计划的产生受到杨小凯的影响:他希望用他的新兴古典经济学理论统一或融合所有的经济学理论。
这个计划不可能在本文的研究篇幅内完成!本文仅仅是个最初的理论基石。体现在本文的研究内容包括:建立一个“个人专业化—企业组织—产业结构—宏观经济”的形式化分析框架;将“瓦尔拉斯静态一般均衡”、“动态经济方法”和“计算机模拟现实”方法通过逐步放松假设衔接起来,形成一个前后一致的研究方法体系(并计算现实样本的各项指标,包括分工程度)、研究经济域和政务域共同构成的系统……
本文的研究领域涉及两个方向:分工(专业化)的作用、经济系统的有机性(或复杂性、或内部相关性、协同演化)。
本文具体的研究核心点是:制度、分工(专业化)、产业(或市场)系统的协同演化或有机性(或非线性、混沌系统、超循环)。
本文的形式化逻辑是通过分工、专业化的视角切入到经济系统来展开。产业或市场的演化是伴生过程
本文的目的之一:建立一个分工、专业化视角的理论分析框架(以此说明产业经济所有问题):本文的第二个目的是:从更接近现实的非线性和复杂性视角研究实际产业演化的规律。第二个目的与第一个目的构成一个硬币的两面,本质是一样的。理论的形式化的研究不仅是为了建立逻辑严密的分析框架,而且是为了分析现实,所以必须研究现实变化的真实路径,以求获得真实的逻辑:产业演化的规律研究是通过一个形式化框架进行推演,以求解释掩盖在现实表象浪花下的内在规律。
本文的研究框架也将展现现代科学方法论的演化过程,静态部分是确定性的牛顿物理的决定论范式,动态部分引入动态非线性和动态有机性,模拟部分体现计算机技术处理复杂性世界的优势。所有部分的逻辑将力求一致,形成一个前后承接的统一的分析框架(静态形式化,动态形式化,计算机模拟形式化,实际观察度量与验证)。
全文的研究可以看作由两个相互印证的主架构成:主架一,分工视角的形式化范式;主架二,产业或市场演化的本质。
全文的具体分析结构,除了文献评述和方法论的外,主要分析过程由:静态分析、动态分析,度量和样本分析和计算机模拟四个部分构成。其中静态分析是最基础的部分,这个部分假设较强,远离现实,以简化现实为目的建立基本的形式化逻辑体系。静态分析的组成成分中,新兴古典框架占优势比例;动态分析和计算机模拟是分析框架中复杂的高层的部分,这个部分逐步放松假设,逐步接近现实。,模拟部分甚至以与现实一致为目的,建立在目前经济学理论界全新的形式化分析工具。度量和样本分析是个辅助工具,是为了从现实中发现新规律和验证纯理论的逻辑推导结果。
本文的目的除了理论或方法创新外,也是为了研究分工视角的产业演化的深层原因。
本文在文献综述后,提出了二十个相关的问题,包括:问题一,分工的演化是单向的加强?何以判断分工水平的变化?;问题二,市场交易效率的更快提高将可能导致分工在企业间更快发展,企业平均规模将减小?分工大量在企业间发展是否会导致产业集中度的减小?;问题三,平均企业规模和总人口有什么关系?如果劳动力资源过剩或者短缺,情况会怎么变化?“规模经济”这个理论真的可以被分工理论替代?分工理论展现的规模效应到底如何?;问题四,同一产业中,不同分工结构如何竞争?同一分工或产业链条的体系中企业如何竞争?不同分工或产业链条之间,企业存在什么样的竞争?;问题五:产业分工链条的加长或者产业分工网络的更加复杂是否都会导致经济规模的加大?;问题六,如何保持规模经济报酬递增的假设又不妨碍竞争,这就是经济学理论中著名的马歇尔困境(Marshall Dilemma)。这个问题斯蒂格勒也给出了解释。是否有别的解释?;问题七:检验张永生的关于产业演化的论断:发展中的产业的特点是非垂直一体化,衰退产业的特点是垂直一体化;问题八:产业创新的源泉和方式是什么?;问题九:不同国家(美,日)的产业中分工结构或分工链的变化是否不同?;问题十,检验Jean Tirole的一个观点“成本差异对产业的影响”;问题十一,关于产业一体化问题;问题十二,重新检验斯蒂格勒对于Allyn Young的批评;问题十三,分工形式化理论和传统产业分析接轨:问题十四:检验斯密定理;问题十五,市场的本质是什么?;问题十六,制度与分工及产业演化的关系到底是什么?能否内生制度,建立一个数理分析框架。假如放在社会有机体的角度,如何体现制度与分工及产业的有机?;问题十七:专业化程度和交易成本的关系?;问题十八:政务域的分工(专业化)演化规律?;问题十九:企业何以产生,是否有其他解释?;问题二十:政府何以产生?
所有问题将在本文对分析框架的研究中尝试解决。
(二)
在研究分析框架前,本文首先进行经济学方法论的研究。研究主要进行了两项工作:归纳整理了经济学理论200多年的大致脉络;对于和经济学有关的近代新兴学科进行评述。这两项工作是为了本章后面建立一个分工研究框架服务的。
对于经济学理论,本文强调:观察视角、相干性、度量尺度、假设前提、形式化、交叉学科和工具等等作用。
方法论研究中把包含政务专业化的分工系统当作一个有机系统进行研究,并初步设计一个研究有机系统的指导原则。
方法论研究确定了论文全文的方法是:坚持数理形式化和文字逻辑的结合,并且加入计算机逻辑的形式化研究。研究会从静态开始,到动态,到计算机程序模拟。这个过程是一个逐步放松假设的过程。
静态分析的最大局限在于时间(优点在于便于得到解析解)、动态分析的最大局限在于非线性动态方程很难得到解析解(优点在于时间假设被放松)、计算机模拟的最大局限在于很难得到细致的实际数据来还原现实的轨迹(优点在于相对不受时间、计算能力、参数数量、限制条件数量等等因素的限制)。
(三)
静态形式化研究是分析框架的第一个构件。这个构件仍旧是使用新兴古典范式:比较静态一般均衡分析。
静态形式化研究是将政务的专业化化纳入分工的静态数理形式化框架,这是从未出现的研究角度。
静态的研究使用超边际分析来寻求静态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡下的最优解并得到全社会的帕累托最优。
因为纳入政务专业化后,用于简化超边际分析的新兴古典的文定理不再适合,那么本文首次推导了适用于内涵政务专业化的简化超边际分析的定理3.1(本文命名为Chen定理),这个定理仅仅适用于特定条件下的静态态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡。
静态形式化研究的所有结论仅在静态瓦尔拉斯一般均衡下成立,结论如下:
第一,证明了人口规模对于一般均衡的限制。“那么区分是否完全专业化政务的临界点实际上就是人口条件(3.33)。一个人口稀少的社会不能实现完全专业化政务。其中原因之一就是:没有足够的产出支撑政务的完全专业化。”。
并且得到一个猜想3.2(第六型规模效应):一国政务专业化的程度和种类与人口规模有关。
第二,关于政务的问题(政务出现的原因?演化的方向?制度(政务)—分工—市场三体共进问题。),情况基本和前面验证Allyn·Young(1928)的观点时一样。如果和完全自给自足结构比较本文已经得到制度(政务)—分工—市场共同演进的结论。但是这个结论没有现实意义。
定理3.1证明了政务专业化程度高的情况下的决策优势。
为什么“两个交易效率参数的加权比较竟然能够区分政务是否会出现在完全依赖市场分工的结构”?这被本文称为一个谜3.11也本文被称为猜想3.4。这也另外得到一个猜想3.5:过高的外生交易效率会阻碍政务的产生。
那么政务的产生有什么规律?本文作如下总结性判断:政务的产生一定与相关结构的交易效率有关;政务的产生也和人口、a等参数相关。(三个结构的每一个条件中,与本结构有关的交易效率种类和相对的结构的相关交易效率种类共同构成的加权比较。)
第三,当出现中间产品时,在杨小凯的“引理8.1”和杨小凯“企业的生成”的数理形式化中,本文认为杨小凯出现一个重大疏漏:在最终产品生产函数中,本文不认同杨小凯的设定中间产品投入的(指数)权重参数的范围。
本文重新设定了包含中间产品的最终产品生产函数。在考虑政务的情况下,对于中间产品的权重(或贡献度)a进行重新研究,本文重新证明了不同产权结构企业的a的范围条件(3.38b**)和有政务专业化的不同产权结构企业a的范围条件(3.38b*****)。
并形成本文的猜想3.3:企业的雇主是谁和中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率相关。(因为最优结构中,个人最终产品生产函数中,l_y总是“1”所以,l_y的指数权重在此分析中不受影响)。
本文证明了:这个猜想3.3在一定条件下成立。
第四,关于“企业的产生”:所有的企业模式都需要先决条件,这个先决条件至少和a的取值区间密切相关;
所有的企业类型成立的条件都和“不同的种类的交易效率之间的加权组合”有关,而且这些交易效率中至少包括“企业内中间产品x的转换效率或企业内管理效率k_(35)”;在针对完全市场分工结构的条件时,相关条件至少还包括中间产品x的产品市场交易效率(1+k_(31));
通过生成包含企业的一般均衡分析,本文发现中间产品贡献参数a在区分不同一般均衡结构中起到极其重要的作用。这个作用甚至在大多结构中优先于交易效率参数的作用。a的这个作用被杨小凯等学者忽略;
包含政务的两个企业产权结构的比较,也就是条件“(3.50e)或(3.48f)”:这是四种交易效率“最终产品y的产品市场交易效率(1+k_(32))、中间产品x专家和最终产品y专家的劳动力市场交易效率(1+k_(33))和(1+k_(34))、企业内中间产品x的转化效率或管理效率(1+k_(35))”加权组合与临界点k_(19)的比较,这个临界点由参数“a、t、ω、c”加权构成。
B类迂回认为与完全没有政务的自给自足相比,政务的出现也是与不同种类的交易效率比较相关。当然绝对不能排除其他参数(影响因素)的作用。
第五,关于静态形式化研究章节的创新点之一:B类一般性迂回(m＞2)中,有企业的结构可能尚未在新兴古典的文献中出现(需要查询最新文献确认)过,有企业和政务的模型肯定没有在现有的所有文献中出现过。本文对此的研究也是一个理论补充。而且,针对产业分析的范式,必须有企业。
第六:关于分工的产生。本文推导的结果认为:“交易效率的增加导致结构从自给自足跃进到分工结构”仅仅是分工产生的一个条件。杨小凯的模型仅仅坚持这个条件是片面的!
本文的迂回模型(A、B类)都发现了有的分工结构的出现,尤其复杂分工结构的出现需要不同种类交易效率参数的比较。这是杨小凯的新兴古典研究没有注意的。
分工是人类社会的常态,没有分工很难产生人类社会,完全自给自足的个体难以组成人类社会。所以,完全自给自足结构作为其他分工结构比较的基点,太勉强!
具体的不同分工结构需要具体分析。
本文发现:数理形式上,不同的分工结构仅仅需要突破与自给自足有关的条件组3.44a系列中的一个对应条件就可以实现分工。也就是说条件组3.44a系列中任何一个条件被突破都可能产生某一个分工结构!突破条件组3.44a是分工产生的必要条件。
但是,“分工突破自给自足而产生”是交易效率提高的结果吗?本文认为这个论断并不确定!交易效率对于“分工突破自给自足而产生”至少不是充分必要条件,至多是必要条件!
AB类迂回都得出分工的出现是不同类型交易效率之间的比较。这个结论与新兴古典学派(杨小凯等)的研究不相符合。
第七,重新设计了B类迂回的一般模式(m＞2)。
关于中间产品种类数m,本文的B类迂回研究认为,“m和交易效率k的相互影响关系”需要根据参数a(中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献度)的不同范围确定。这个发现与杨小凯等学者的发现不同。
也就是说:新产品种类的增加并不必然与k正相关。(在没有企业的纯市场结构中,这种必然的正相关仅仅在a的范围0＜a＜1/2时才成立。也就意味着中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率不能过高!)
第八,第一次推导了C类迂回的一般模式。尤其包含政务专业化的一般形式从未在文献中出现过。
C类迂回推导中得到猜想3.4:用以表述中间产品价格和产出的一般形式。
第九,C类迂回的研究再一次发现:在最终产品生产函数中,中间产品的影响因子(参数β)的重要性,这个因子在A类迂回中表现为参数a。这是一个被新兴古典学者忽略的发现。新兴古典的学者或杨小凯将主要精力都放在了交易效率参数的影响上。
对于C类迂回的链条扩展,只要相关科技能够出现,或者创新能够完成,那么就有趋势无限扩大迂回链条,这是一个正反馈的过程。这也可以解析工业革命的出现。但是需要注意到的是外生约束仍旧存在,例如:总人口和外生交易效率参数的约束。人口可以解释为总市场的约束。而且本文强调的政务专业化也加入了整个正反馈系统。
为什么工业革命出现在西方世界?因为他们启动并进入了这个正反馈的过程,工业革命后西方世界不断地向外开拓新的市场,新的市场又促进正反馈的继续进行…
第十,C类的迂回分工一个结论验证了技术创新的一个规律,也证实了杨小凯和Shi and Yang(1995)的C类模型的论断:“当迂回程度继续增加时..,第一台蒸汽发动机比一匹马更慢而且更加昂贵”。
而且税率的高低使得C类迂回出现完全差异的产品创新路径!
第十一,通过本章的形式化推导,会明白:为什么所有的超过两人以上的宏观现象都是以微观个人为基础建立起来的。这是新兴古典和杨小凯的理论的特点所在。也就如本文最开始哪句话“究微末变化,演天下大势”。当然,新兴古典的优势在于推导静态的一般均衡体系。
第十二,B类迂回的研究认为:基于本文的m与k的研究,本文不同意杨锌赜谛虏泛凸ひ祷慕崧邸?
本文并不认为交易效率一定促进新产品的种类出现。
而且本文也不认为工业化道路中工业品的加速增加与交易效率增加必然相关。这种必然的正相关仅仅在a的范围0＜a＜1/2时才成立。也就意味着中间产品在最终产品生产中的贡献率不能过高!
静态形式化研究存在一些局限(详见正文第三章最后一节),例如:假设前提、“最优结构是怎么突然从无到有的?”和“最优结构如何从局部结构扩散成全局结构?”、经济组织的演化模式可能出现各种不同类型的结构、“变量的变动范围”、“资本(或资产)存量”对于一般均衡的影响、时间假设、淘汰和生存咱标准、非确定性与非线性、关于交易效率参数(与时间有关)的动态变化与内生政务的影响…等等。
第三章以后,论文的研究将走向与杨小凯截然不同的两条道路,本文的理论范式将不再以求得最优模式为研究目标!
论文后面的部分也需求弥补静态的缺陷。
(四)
动态形式化的研究是在放松静态形式化的一些假设基础上进行的。在弥补前一章节静态分析的缺陷的基础上,这一部分有两个大目标需要解决,是:第一,建立一个分工(含政务专业化)的动态形式化框架;第二,动态形式化与分析有机系统联系起来。
这一部分主要进行的工作是建立动态分析框架,这个框架包主要针对:政务专业化、分工、有机系统、稳态(homeostasis)、与静态分析有一定的逻辑承接、非均衡、保持个人角点决策模式、经济域与非经济域(社会背景:政务、文化…)、创新等等问题建立的。本章基本完成了基于政务专业化的针对分工的动态形式化框架的推演。
针对动态,提出了十九条改进意见。针对有机系统提出了三点改进;针对静态缺陷和分工系统的动态,提出了十四条改进要点、采纳了“拟种”间竞争(或分工结构间竞争)的思路。针对动态形式化又重新研究明确了对“适应值”、“竞争”、有机系统及其稳定(“稳态(homeostasis)”)、数理形式化“社会背景”等问题的处理办法
综合以上改进,本章还提出了建立动态形式化框架的具体内容。其中提出:将动态分析框架分两个部分框架。框架一,演化博弈分析创新的出现:框架二,逻辑斯蒂演化方程分析包含政务的两结构产业。
本部分对于这两个框架进行了推演,并成功的展示分工的动态形式化过程。推演的范例是:人类的起源(家庭分工结构的产生与稳定)。第一个原始家庭在动态数理形式化中出现,于是社会开始萌芽,人类的起源开始。
(五)
运用前面静态形式化的研究成果,本文重新推演了青木昌彦等学者对于美国和日本的比较经济模式研究。成功的演化了两国的不同产业或经济系统模式。
运用动态形式化的研究成果,本文成功的推演了5000年的中国历史模式,这个模式曾经被一些学者研究,本文的研究是独特的数理模型。但是本文并不认为这个模式能够具有替代其他学者的研究范式,因为幅员辽阔的中国社会的复杂性并不能那么简单的用一个视角的模式表达。
运用动态形式化的研究成果,本文成功的推演了中国自1978年以来的30年的产业发展模式。这个推演尝试表达各种不同产业在中国改革中的不同演化路径。
在推演中国5000年代的形式化时:本文首次在此出现政务内部的分工(两类专业)。
(六)
为了经验数据的检验,本文重新发展出一套度量分工程度的指标体系,并且认为这个指标体系强于杨小凯的指标体系(他的体系是基于静态一般均衡)。
应用指标体系,本文对实际数据进行了度量分析。这一数据来自于对江西财经大学的西区餐饮业的长时间直接观察所得。直接观察法又被文化人类学、考古学称为“田野调查”。
(七)
计算机模拟是本文形式化研究的最后一个构架。这个构架的目标在于尽量还原现实演化轨迹的基础上推演形式化模式,这个形式化模式不是用文字或数学表达,而是计算机程序。
因为本文强调的是形式化过程,所以计算机程序表示的形式化逻辑应该放在正文。但是因为程序过于庞大(论文篇幅也过大),所以只能暂时放在附录。关于程序的文字说明部分应该放在附录,正文仅仅保留必要的程序说明,以保持读者对这一章的完整理解。详细的程序和运行说明见论文所附光盘。
这一部分的模拟有三个范例:对于市场竞争过程的研究;对于企业分工与经营研究:对于产业的演化研究。前两个范例的数据是基于江财西区快餐业的研究,最后一个范例是针对南昌餐饮业的四年演化还原。
模拟三的研究过程及其复杂,计算机随机生成100家不同企业的复杂经营行为,涉及的程序规模非常庞大。企业和政府等参数来自于现实数据。
本文猜想这种模拟方法是否可以广泛用于历史研究,并发展出一门新的学科“模拟史学”。
事实上,对于计算机模拟发展出的形式化方法是本文认为最有可能冲击并彻底改变主流经济学方法的一项革命性趋势,整个21世纪的经济研究将完全改变范式。
值得注意的是模拟三中,交易成本和制度效率都出现了具体数值,分工程度也出现了长达四年的具体数值.交易效率参数在模拟中出现了复杂的变化,这些变化不可能在数理模型中出现。
理论上,模拟三可以扩展到其他不同行业和地区,甚至用于国家层面或世界层面的分析,区别在于参数的设置和工作量的不同。
(八)
全文的研究成果大致有:对于分工理论提出很多新的观点;对于分工形式化方法不仅仅补入了政务专业化这个内容而且尝试在研究方法上进行创新(将静态、动态、计算机模拟结合起来);运用本文的分工形式化研究成果对现实进行分析。
因为本文是新的研究视角,所以很多研究成果可能是首次出现或全新视角的证明。几个主要的创新是:
第一,政务专业化的分工形式化的工作迄今没有看到类似的研究。内涵政务专业化后,能将交易效率参数k中与政府有关的一部分因素剥离出来内生化;
第二,推导定理3.1,用于简化政务专业化的分工形式化超边际分析;
第三,动态方面,放弃了新兴古典的均衡思想,采用了演化经济学常采用的非均衡设定,试图使分析框架更加接近现实。这项研究对于分工的形式化是重大补充;
第四,采用了“现实模拟”的方式进行分工视角的现实行业(产业)分析,计算机模拟也放弃了均衡思想;
第五,因为对于非均衡思想的采用和现实分析的目的,分工的度量指标放弃了新兴古典原有的指标设计,重新设计了一套新的指标并进行了现实数据的样本分析。这套指标笔者认为比杨小凯的指标更加实用。
全文有些缺陷,有些需要留待以后解决,例如:定理3.1仍旧是个特定条件下的定理,没有一般化。定理3.1(Cheng定理)的企业形式没有在本文单独证明,有待在以后重新证明。(这会导致进行产业分析过程的逻辑漏洞);政务分工的形式化(静态,动态,计算机模拟)分析没有做一般性推导;因为需要,所以大着胆子对经济学说进行了一个粗浅的疏理。这个疏理的漏缺之处可能较多;非经济域或政务域同样存在分工结构,那么多样化的政务和经济分工共同形成的系统的数理形式化将非常复杂,这不是本文能够解决的!;C类迂回的一般形式(中间产品种类大于1)的解析遇到一个难题:这个难题是因为出现几何级数,本文不能得到常规状态下的几何级数的简化形式。;最优规划的出现使得解决角点问题出现可能。但是,必须注意的是:最优规划并不都有解析解;全程的最优方法最适用于静态一般均衡;迄今为止,所有的研究(包括本文)都不能很好的解决不完全专业化的分工问题。不完全专业化导致可能性太多,一旦放松假设,那么将难以解析;对于制度,因为以本文目前的处理技术,还无法掌控制度的回归分析,所以本文的制度都是间接反映在一些参数上,例如:交易效率参数k(k是承袭新兴古典惯例)。
The rapid development of economics requires scholars who study pure economic theory a high scientific attainment.As a result,those who still believe that earthquake can be accurately predicted in short time doesn't really know much about nonlinear science,thus feeling confused about "how to deal with the organic or nonlinear problems in human society."
Scholars of a century ago,such as Karl Marx and Michelle,have already noticed the organic or nonlinear problems,which could not be handled with contemporary science and technology.
Two important steps have been made in nonlinear science with the development of 20~(th)-century scientific technology and mathematics.One is the introduction of optimum programming theory into economics.The other is the rapid development of nonlinear dynamics.
This paper predicates that computer technology will become the mainstream of economics with the progress of nonlinear science in the not-too-distant future.The author has a plan to compose a thesis on economics with formal logic of pure computer procedure.
Below is the abstract of the paper.
(Ⅰ)
The main aim of the paper is to quest the future of economic theory,then the division theory and application will be researched.
This paper originated from a tremendous research plan:to establish a fundamental analysis framework,which can explain all social problems in all economic fields and related problems.
The birth of the plan has been affected by Yang Xiaokai.He hopes to inosculate all economic theory by his new classical economic theory.
However,this paper is just an initial theoretical principal.That is to build a formal analysis framework of"personal specialization - Business organizations - the industrial structure - macro-economic";to link up" Walrasian static general equilibrium," "dynamic economy" and "Computer simulation of reality" approach through the gradual relaxation of the assumption to form a coherent system of research methods(and calculate the index of reality sample,including the degree of labor division),and to study the system constituted by economic domain and administrative domain...
Areas of research in this article involves two directions:the labor division (specialization)、the role of the organic nature of the economic system(or the complexity or internal、relevance of co-evolution).
the Specific research core point in this article is:the system,labor division(specialized)、co-evolution of industry(or market) system or organic(or non-linear chaotic system,Hypercycle).
In this paper,the adoption of formal logic starts from perspective of specialized labor division into the economic system.Evolution of industry or market interacts with each other.
One of the purposes of this article:to establish a theoretical analytical framework of specialized perspective of labor division(to illustrate all the problems in industrial economy);the second objective of this paper is:to study the law of the actual industrial evolution from the perspective of nonlinear and complexity which is closer to the reality.The second purpose and the first one form two faces of a coin which is in essence the same.Formal study of the theory can not only to establish a rigorous analysis of the logical framework,but also to study the true path of the changing realities in order to obtain true logic;the law study of the industry evolution is deducted through a formal framework in order to explain the inherent law covered up the appearance of spray.
Research framework of this article will also show the evolution of modern scientific methodology process,in which the static part is of Newton's physics decision paradigm,the dynamic part is of the introduction of dynamic non-linear and dynamic organic nature,and the stimulation part shows the advantage of the computer technology to deal with the complexity of the world.Logic of all parts will seek to form similarity and a unified analysis framework(static formalization,dynamic formalization,computer simulation formalization and actual observation of measurement and verification).
The full text of the study can be seen as evidence by two of the main structure as follows:the main frame is a formula from perspective of labor division;the second frame is the nature of the evolution of industry or the market.
The main analysis process is constituted of static analysis,dynamic analysis,and measure and sample analysis and computer simulation.Static analysis is one of the most basic parts,which has a strong assumption far away from reality,establishing the basic system of formal logic for the purpose of simplifying reality.In the composition of the static analysis the new classical framework is of the dominant ratio; dynamic analysis and computer simulation is of the complex high-level part in the analysis framework,which is of the gradual relaxation of some assumptions,and gradually closer to reality.The purpose of simulation part is in line with reality based on the current formal sector,a new analysis tools.Measure and sample analysis are assistant tools in order to discover new laws and to verify the logic of theoretical results from the reality.
In addition to theoretical or methodological innovation,the purpose of this paper is also to study the underlying causes of the industry evolution from the perspective of labor division.
This paper,after literature review,proposed 20-related issues,including:
1.Is the evolution of labor division strengthened in one-way? How to determine changes in the level of labor division?
2.Will the efficiency of market transactions lead to faster development of the labor division in enterprises and reduce the average size of enterprises? Will large number of inter-firm labor division lead to the decrease of industrial concentration?
3.What is the relationship between an average size of enterprise and the total population? What the situation will be in the shortage or surplus of labor resources? How is the scale effect shown by theory of labor division?
4.How different division of the structure to compete in the same industry? How the enterprises in the same or different labor division or industrial chain business?
5.Will the lengthening of the chain of industrial labor division or complexity of networks of industrial labor division lead to greater economies of scale?
6.How to maintain the assumption of increasing returns of scale economy which is not anti-competitive(Marshall Dilemma).This problem is also given an explanation by Stigler.Is there any other explanation?
7.to test the inference of Yong-Sheng Zhang on the evolution of industries:the characteristic of developing industry is non-vertical integration,while that of declining industry is vertical integration.
8.What is the means and source of industrial innovation?
9.Are there any differences in the changes of the division chain or division structure in different countries(the United States and Japan)?
10.To test a point of view of Jean Tirole:the impace of cost difference to industry.
11.with regard to the issue of industrial integration
12.Re-examine Stigler's criticism to Allyn Young
13.The integration of formal theory of the labor division and practice of traditional industry analysis;
14.Smith theorem test;
15.What is the nature of the market?;
16.What is the relationship between the system and the evolution of labor division?
17.The relationship between degree of specialization and transaction costs?
18.The evolution rule of the division of the administrative domain (professionalism)?
19.How the enterprise came into being? are there other explanations?;
20.How government came into being?
The attempt to solve all the questions will be done in the study of analysis framework in the paper.
(Ⅱ)
This article first studies the economic research methodology before the analysis framework.The research carries out two major tasks:to collate and analyze the general context of the economic theory in more than 200 years;to review the emerging modern disciplines relating to economics.Both are for establishing research framework for the labor division behind this chapter.
For economic theory,the paper stresses the functions of observation of the perspectives,coherence,measurement scales,assumptions,formalization, cross-disciplinary and tools and so on.
In the study of methodology,system of labor division,which includes administrative specialization,is studied as an organic system,and guiding principles are designed to study the organic systems.
Research methodology determines the method of the full text:to uphold the combination of formal mathematical and logical of text with the formal study of computer logic.Study will be started from a static to dynamic,and to the simulation computer program.This process is a process of gradual relaxation of the assumption.
The biggest limitations of static analysis is time(the advantage is easy to obtain analytical solution),the biggest limitations of dynamic analysis is the difficulty to obtain nonlinear dynamic equation analytic solution(the advantage is of time relaxation),the biggest limitations of computer simulation is the difficulty to obtain detailed data to restore the reality of the actual track(the merit is that this is relatively unrestricted by time,computing power,the number of parameters,constraints limit number and other factors).
(Ⅲ)
Static formal study is the first component of the analysis framework.This component still uses new classical paradigm:comparative static analysis of general equilibrium.
Static Formal research is the formal mathematical framework which put administrative specialization into labor division;this is point of view which has never been used.
Exploring the use of passive infra-marginal analysis to find the static Walrasian general equilibrium under the optimal solution and Pareto optimality of society as a whole.
after being put into the administrative specialization,the new classical theorem that to simplify the infra-marginal analysis is no longer suitable,then this article for the first time deduced the infra-marginal analysis theorem 3.1(Theorem Chen named in this article) suitable to the administrative specialization.This theorem only applies under certain conditions in a static state of the Walrasian general equilibrium.
All the conclusions of static formal study can be true only in the static Walrasian general equilibrium.Here are the following conclusions:
1.it proves that the size of the population restricts the general equilibrium."Then the critical point to distinguish whether it is a complete administrative specialization is in fact the conditions of the population(3.33).A sparsely populated community cannot fully be administratively specialized.One of the reasons is there is no enough output to support the complete administrative specialization."
And get conjecture 3.2(scale-Ⅵ):degree and types of a country's administrative specialization relate to population size.
2.with regard to the administrative issue(reasons,evolution direction? System (administration) - labor division - the market.) The situation is basically the same with that of authentication of Allyn·Young(1928).If compared with the complete self-sufficient structure,this article has already got the conclusion that system (administration) - the labor division - the markets develop in the same progress. However,there is no practical significance to this conclusion. Theorem 3.1 proves decision-making advantages in the Case of a high degree of administrative specialization.
Why "two transaction efficiency parameters compared can distinguish whether the administration will appear in the structure depending entirely on of the labor division"? This is known as a mystery 3.1 of this articlel In this paper,it is also known as the conjecture 3.4.There is also another conjecture 3.5:if the exogenous transaction efficiency is too high,it will hinder the emergence of the administration.
So what is the discipline of the emergence of administration? This article summary as follows:Administration's emergence is related to certain transaction efficiency, population and A parameters.(The structure of each of the three conditions,with the structure of the transaction types and the relative efficiency of the structure of the relevant type of transaction efficiency compared weighted together.)
3.when there is intermediate product,in Yang's "Lemma 8.1" and Yang" business generation" mathematical formalization,this paper argues that there is a significant omission:In the final product of the production function,this article do not agree with Yang's the scope of the weighing parameters of the set of intermediate inputs(index).
This article re-set contains the final products production function including intermediate goods.In considering the case of the administration,also re-studies intermediate products weighting parameter A(or contribution).this paper proves the range of different property rights of business conditions(3.38b **) and the range of different professional property with administrative specialization(3.38b *****). And forming the conjecture 3.3 of this article:that who the employer of enterprises is relates to contribution rate of the intermediate products in the final production. (Because in the optimal structure,the individual production functions of the final product,ly is always "1" so ly weight of the index will not be affected in this analysis). In this paper,we prove Conjecture 3.3 will be set up under certain conditions.
4.with regard to "the emergence of Enterprise":All the business models require a prerequisite,which is at least closely related to the interval A;
The establishment conditions of all types of enterprises are related to "weighted array among different types Of transaction efficiency," including at least" conversion efficiency of intermediate products x in the enterprise or the management efficiency k35of enterprise ";in response to conditions of division of the complete structure of the market,the conditions also at least include product market transaction efficiency (1 + k31)including intermediate products x;
By general equilibrium analysis including enterprises,this article found intermediate goods contribution parameter A plays a vital role in distinguishing between different general equilibrium structures.The role even takes precedence over transaction efficient parameters in the most of structure.A's role has been ignored by Yang and other scholars;
Comparison of property right structure of two companies(including administration)is the conditions "(3.50e) or(3.48f)":This is comparison between four types weighted array of transaction efficiency—"the final product y product market transaction efficiency(1 + k32),intermediate goods x experts and experts in the final product y trading efficiency of the labor market(1 + k33) and(1 + k34),enterprise transformation of intermediate products x efficiency or managerial efficiency(1 + k35) "—and the critical point.The critical point is constituted by the parameters "a,t,w, c".
Type B winding thinks compared with self-government without any administration, the emergence of the administration is also associated with different types of transaction efficiency.Of course,we cannot absolutely rule out the role of other parameters(factors).
5.One of the innovative sections of static formal research:in B-type general circuitous(m＞2),there may not have been found the structure of enterprises in the classical literature there(need to check with the latest literature) and that there is certainly not have been found model of government andenterprises in the existing literature.This paper theoretically added content to study.Moreover,there must be a business for the paradigm of industry analysis.
6.With regard to the emergence of labor division.The results of this paper said:"The increase in transaction efficiency result in the structure leaping from self-sufficiency to structure of the labor division" is only a condition resulting in the labor division. Yang's model only insisted that the condition is one-sided!
In this paper,the indirect model(A,B type) are found in the emergence of some labor division structure,in particular the emergence of the complex labor division structure require different types of transaction efficiency parameters.This is an aspect which Yang paid no attention in new classic study.
Labor division is the norm of human society,without which there will be no chance of haman society.Therefore,it is very hard to take the completely self-supporting structure as the base of the other division structure.
Different division structures need concrete analysis.
This paper found:mathematically,the different structure of the labor division can be achieved just when breaking a corresponding condition of the conditions of the group a series 3.44a relating to self-sufficiency.This means breakthrough of any condition of Section 3.44a series can emerge a division of the structure! Breaking the conditions of Section 3.44a is a necessary condition for the labor division generation. However,is the "labor division created breakthrough self-sufficiency" the results of higher transaction efficiency? This article does not determine that!
Class AB both find that emergence of the division is comparison between the different types of transaction efficiency.This conclusion does not conform to the study with the New Classical School(Yang,etc.)
7.Re-design of the general pattern of the B category winding(m＞2).
The increase in the types of new products does not necessarily positively correlated with k.(In the absence of pure market structure of enterprises,this is bound to be set up the positive correlation only in a range of 0＜a＜1 / 2.It means that the intermediate goods production in the contribution of the final product rate cannot be too high!)
8.To derivate the general pattern of C-type around for the first time.
Then we get conjecture 3.4:for the expression of intermediate goods prices and the general form of output.
9.Rediscovery of C Class circuitous research:in the final product production function, the importance of the impact factor of the intermediate products(parameterβ).This factor is parameter a in the A category.This is a new discovery neglected by new classic scholars.
10.A discipline has been confirmed of C type:"When the level of the roundabout continues to increase..,The first steam engine will be more slowly than a horse but also more expensive."
11.From the formal derivation of this chapter,we will understand:the reason why all macro-phenomena more than two people involved are based on individual micro-established.
12.B-type indirect studies suggest that:In this paper,based on the study of m and k, this article does not agree with the conclusions of industrialization of new products made by Yang.
This article does not consider that transaction efficiency is certain s to promote the emergence of new types of products.
There are some limitations of the static formal study,for example:based on the assumption,"how the optimal structure becomes something out of nothing in a sudden?" And "how the best structure get the proliferation of local structure into the overall structure? ",the evolution model of economic organization may be of different types of structure," the changing scope of variables ",the impact of" capital(or assets) of the stock "for the general equilibrium effects,time assumptions,the survival standard,non-identified and non-linear,dynamics of change and endogenous administration of trading efficiency parameters(with time) the...and so on.
After ChapterⅢ,the paradigm of the theory in this article will no longer take achievement of the optimal model as study the target!
(Ⅳ)
Dynamic formal study is based on certain assumptions of the relaxation of static formalization.Here are two main targets:firstly,the establishment of a dynamic formal framework of labor division(including administrative specialization);second, connection of dynamic formalization and organic system analysis.
In this part the main work is to establish dynamic analysis framework aiming at: administrative specialization,division of labor and organic systems,steady-state (homeostasis),certain logic static analysis,non-balance,personal decisions Corner model,the economic domain and non-economic domain(social backgrounds: administration,culture and so on...),innovation.
19 proposed improvements are raised to dynamic.For Organic system there are three improvements;and so on.
Taking all these improvements,this chapter also proposed methods to establish dynamic formal framework.Which put forward:fordynamic analysis framework can be divided into two parts.A framework,the emergence of innovation of evolutionary Game Analysis;B framework,Logisticanalysis of evolution equations contain the two-government structure of industry.
(Ⅴ)
the paper successfully deducted 5000-year Chinese history model with the research results of the dynamic formalization.
The paper successfully deducted the 30-year pattern of industrial development in China since 1978 with the research results of dynamic formalization.In Deduction of 5000-year formalization in China,this article for the first time raised this division of labor in administration(two professions).
(Ⅵ)
In order to test empirical data,this article re-develop a set of indicators to qualify the extent of labor division system,and we claim that the indicator system is stronger than the index system proposed by Yang(his system is based on a static general equilibrium).
Application of indicators,the paper made quality analysis of the actual data.This data comes from long-time direct observation to the Western restaurants in Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics.
(Ⅶ)
Computer simulation is the final framework for the formal study in this paper.The aim of this framework is to deduct formal model on the basis of restoring reality evolution track;the formal model is not expressed in words or mathematics,but a computer program.
There are three examples in the simulation of this part:the study of market competition process;the study of business labor division and management;the study of evolution of the industry.
The research process of simulation 3 is of great complexity;to restore the complex management behavior of the 100 different business enterprises in reality is a very large procedure.
This article made a conjecture whether such simulations can be widely used in historical research and to develop a new discipline,"Simulation of History."
(Ⅷ)
research results of the full text of are:new ideas of the theory of labor division;new content of administrative specialization to methods of labor division formalization and innovations of research methods(combination of static,dynamic and computer simulation);analysis of reality with the research results of labor division formalization.
A lot of new research results appear in this article appears,in which some maybe innovative as bellows:
1.The study of labor division formalization of administrative specialization is innovative.After the content of the Chief of specialization,transaction efficiency parameter k can be in part related to the Government to divest from biochemical factors;
2.Theorem 3.1 is derived for inframarginal analysis of labor division formalization of the simplification of administrative specialization;
3.In the dynamic context,this paper gives up the new classical ideas of balance,using non-equilibrium setting usually adopted in the evolutionary economics,and tries to make analytical framework more realistic.
4.This paper made industries(industries) analysis in the use of a "realistic simulation" approach from perspective of labor division;
5.A new set of indicators we designed to make sample analysis of truthful data.
There are also some flaws in the paper to be solved.For instance,we don't generalize Theorem 3.1,which can be proved only under certain conditions;we cannot acquire all latest materials in every knowledge points especially English materials;this paper doesn't make general deduction to the formal analysis of administrative labor division; as a doctoral dissertation,the subject of this paper may be too large;
In this paper,the process of mathematical proof is still not very tight,many places remain to be improved;the analysis of the general form of C-type around(types of intermediate goods is greater than 1) encounters a problem:it was because of the emergence of geometric series,this article cannot get the simplified geometric forms in normal condition;The emergence of the optimal planning solution makes possible angle points.However,it must be noted that:the best planning does not have the analytical solution;the best practices is most appropriate for a static general equilibrium;so far,all studies(including this article) cannot be a good solution to labor division Of incomplete specialization.There are many better tools in Modern technology to determine the chaotic(fractal,steady-state) nature;the system,because current technology in this article isn't so mature,cannot control the regression analysis.
引文
[1]“规模经济”的概念是如此重要,以至于琼斯认为新古典内生增长模型中如果没有规模效应,内生增长就不会出现。(张永生,2003,page23)
[1]一些学者认为现代经济学从亚当斯密开始(所以分工在经济学的历史也从亚当斯密开始)例如:盛洪:“亚当斯密在《国富论》中,用这样的话开始了现代经济学的历史‘劳动生产力上最大的增进…似乎都是分工的结果'”(盛洪,分工与交易,1994,page1)。Emile Durkhem(涂尔干)甚至认为“分工”这个术语最早由亚当斯密创立。(涂尔干,社会分工论,2000(中文版),page1)
[2]斯密认为动物没有交易。
[1]马歇尔关于极端专门化的论断,本文作者在分工的实证研究中发现反例。
[2]“技能被淘汰的过程”换成本文后面章节实证研究分工时的语言:这个分工位或分工网络中的专业化环节被淘汰了。
[3]“它”指的是:机械。
[4]马歇尔使用规模经济和外部性这些概念的一种解释是:当时数学工具不足以解决角点问题。直到20世纪50年代数学家才发现解决角点解的方法。(张永生,2003,page149)Stigler给出了另一个原因是:马歇尔为了解决解决“报酬递增”和“竞争”理论相冲突的两难,所以设定了几个理论(其中之一就是:外部经济)以解决冲突。(Stigler,产业组织,2006(中译本),page170)
[5]又有译为:施蒂格勒(产业组织理论,2006(中译本))
[1]黄有光阅读本文到此,补充说杨小凯的两难模式“是取舍”。
[2]图1.1来源于杨小凯的著作(杨小凯,2003,11)
[1]第二型规模效应:人口增加对经济发展有正面作用(杨小凯,2003,225)。
[2]矛盾的是,杨小凯在迂回的动态模型中认为分工的潜力无限。(杨小凯,2003,388)这和杨小凯分工水平计算中的最优分工水平的结论(产品种类以人口数为上限)矛盾。
[3]k的内生说得不够。
[4]外生的制度设定和观点,导致了杨小凯和林毅夫之间曾经发生了一场关于中国改革现状与前途的著名争论。
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[1]一些学者认为现代经济学从亚当斯密开始(所以分工在经济学的历史也从亚当斯密开始)例如:盛洪:“亚当斯密在《国富论》中,用这样的话开始了现代经济学的历史‘劳动生产力上最大的增进…似乎都是分工的结果'”(盛洪,分工与交易,1994,page1)。Emile Durkhem(涂尔干)甚至认为“分工”这个术语最早由亚当斯密创立。(涂尔干,社会分工论,2000(中文版),page1)
[2]斯密认为动物没有交易。
[1]马歇尔关于极端专门化的论断,本文作者在分工的实证研究中发现反例。
[2]“技能被淘汰的过程”换成本文后面章节实证研究分工时的语言:这个分工位或分工网络中的专业化环节被淘汰了。
[3]“它”指的是:机械。
[4]马歇尔使用规模经济和外部性这些概念的一种解释是:当时数学工具不足以解决角点问题。直到20世纪50年代数学家才发现解决角点解的方法。(张永生,2003,page149)Stigler给出了另一个原因是:马歇尔为了解决解决“报酬递增”和“竞争”理论相冲突的两难,所以设定了几个理论(其中之一就是:外部经济)以解决冲突。(Stigler,产业组织,2006(中译本),page170)
[5]又有译为:施蒂格勒(产业组织理论,2006(中译本))
[1]黄有光阅读本文到此,补充说杨小凯的两难模式“是取舍”。
[2]图1.1来源于杨小凯的著作(杨小凯,2003,11)
[1]第二型规模效应:人口增加对经济发展有正面作用(杨小凯,2003,225)。
[2]矛盾的是,杨小凯在迂回的动态模型中认为分工的潜力无限。(杨小凯,2003,388)这和杨小凯分工水平计算中的最优分工水平的结论(产品种类以人口数为上限)矛盾。
[3]k的内生说得不够。
[4]外生的制度设定和观点,导致了杨小凯和林毅夫之间曾经发生了一场关于中国改革现状与前途的著名争论。
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