中国产业结构的投入产出关联分析
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摘要
当前我国正处于第三次产业结构调整的关键时期，实现产业结构的战略性转变，必须以准确的数量分析为基础。本项研究应用投入产出分析方法，对产业间的关联程度，不同产业的特点及其对经济增长的影响、与最终需求的关系等内容进行数量分析，探索不同产业及不同类别的需求与经济增长的关系，这对于加快我国产业结构战略性转变，保障国民经济持续、稳定、协调发展具有重要的现实意义。
以投入产出理论为基础，本文主要完成了如下工作：
(1)RAS方法是修正和预测投入系数最简单有效的手段之一，但在不同的应用条件下应做出相应的调整。本文将传统RAS方法中的最终需求向量与增加值向量替换为投入系数矩阵的各行之和与各列之和，提高了RAS方法的有效性，并据此预测了2002年中国17部门投入系数矩阵。
(2)测定了17个产业部门的关联程度，包括直接关联和间接关联，前向关联和后项关联。前向关联的测定以产出矩阵B为基础，应用产出逆阵(I-B)~(-1)计算各产业的完全前向关联程度，在经济增长过程中，前向关联大的产业部门最先受到需求压力，如果不能实现快速增长，容易形成经济增长的瓶颈产业，起到负面作用。后向关联大的产业对经济增长有较强的推动力，在我国目前需求不足的情况下，如果能有效刺激这些产业部门的需求，将有利于进一步加速经济的增长。
(3)由于投入产出关联程度的差异，满足消费需求所带动的生产部门结构与消费结构存在着不可忽视的差异。这表明考虑产业关联的同时，还必须考虑不同类别的最终使用对部门生产的拉动差异。最终需求主要由居民消费、政府消费、固定资本形成与净出口四个部分构成，其中固定资本形成的生产诱发系数最大，说明通过增加这一部分的需求刺激可以更有效地促进总产出的增长。
刺激经济宜在影响力系数比较大的部门着手，但对需求因素作进一步分析的结果表明，各部门的增长推动力各有不同。在进行经济宏观调控的过程中，要综合考虑到上述各种因素，针对不同产业的特性，采取不同的经济手段，加以区别对待。
China is in the key phase of the third industrial structure adjustment at present. This paper analyzes the intersectoral linkages, the characteristics of different industries, the impact on economic growth and the relation between the industry and final demands by the input-output method. This has important significance of accelerating of our country industrial structure strategic transitions and ensuring economic growth.
Based on the input-output theory, this paper has finished the following work:
(1) There has been a recent resurgence of interest in RAS technique for updating and interpreting change in matrix representations of regional structures, most commonly input-output accounts. Although this technique has been shown to have a number of theoretically appealing properties, various alternatives do exist. In this paper, I make substitutions in the final demand vector and the value-added vector, and improve the validity of RAS technique.
(2)I measure the intersectoral linkages of 17 sectors, including direct linkages and indirect linkages. Thereinto, the measure of forward linkages are base on the output matrix (B). During the course of economic growth, the sectors having higher forward linkages have received the demand pressure foremost, but the sectors having lower forward linkages have strong motive force to the economic growth.
(3)The different intersectoral linkages induce the difference of production structure and the consumption structure. This indicates that we must consider the diversity caused by final demands while we research the intersectoral linkages. Final demands are formed four parts with the consumption of resident, government consumption, fixed capital and the net export. Among them, fixed capital has the biggest production induction coefficient.
During the macro-economic control, we should consider above-mentioned factors synthetically, and take different economic means to the characteristic of different industries
以投入产出理论为基础，本文主要完成了如下工作：
(1)RAS方法是修正和预测投入系数最简单有效的手段之一，但在不同的应用条件下应做出相应的调整。本文将传统RAS方法中的最终需求向量与增加值向量替换为投入系数矩阵的各行之和与各列之和，提高了RAS方法的有效性，并据此预测了2002年中国17部门投入系数矩阵。
(2)测定了17个产业部门的关联程度，包括直接关联和间接关联，前向关联和后项关联。前向关联的测定以产出矩阵B为基础，应用产出逆阵(I-B)~(-1)计算各产业的完全前向关联程度，在经济增长过程中，前向关联大的产业部门最先受到需求压力，如果不能实现快速增长，容易形成经济增长的瓶颈产业，起到负面作用。后向关联大的产业对经济增长有较强的推动力，在我国目前需求不足的情况下，如果能有效刺激这些产业部门的需求，将有利于进一步加速经济的增长。
(3)由于投入产出关联程度的差异，满足消费需求所带动的生产部门结构与消费结构存在着不可忽视的差异。这表明考虑产业关联的同时，还必须考虑不同类别的最终使用对部门生产的拉动差异。最终需求主要由居民消费、政府消费、固定资本形成与净出口四个部分构成，其中固定资本形成的生产诱发系数最大，说明通过增加这一部分的需求刺激可以更有效地促进总产出的增长。
刺激经济宜在影响力系数比较大的部门着手，但对需求因素作进一步分析的结果表明，各部门的增长推动力各有不同。在进行经济宏观调控的过程中，要综合考虑到上述各种因素，针对不同产业的特性，采取不同的经济手段，加以区别对待。
China is in the key phase of the third industrial structure adjustment at present. This paper analyzes the intersectoral linkages, the characteristics of different industries, the impact on economic growth and the relation between the industry and final demands by the input-output method. This has important significance of accelerating of our country industrial structure strategic transitions and ensuring economic growth.
Based on the input-output theory, this paper has finished the following work:
(1) There has been a recent resurgence of interest in RAS technique for updating and interpreting change in matrix representations of regional structures, most commonly input-output accounts. Although this technique has been shown to have a number of theoretically appealing properties, various alternatives do exist. In this paper, I make substitutions in the final demand vector and the value-added vector, and improve the validity of RAS technique.
(2)I measure the intersectoral linkages of 17 sectors, including direct linkages and indirect linkages. Thereinto, the measure of forward linkages are base on the output matrix (B). During the course of economic growth, the sectors having higher forward linkages have received the demand pressure foremost, but the sectors having lower forward linkages have strong motive force to the economic growth.
(3)The different intersectoral linkages induce the difference of production structure and the consumption structure. This indicates that we must consider the diversity caused by final demands while we research the intersectoral linkages. Final demands are formed four parts with the consumption of resident, government consumption, fixed capital and the net export. Among them, fixed capital has the biggest production induction coefficient.
During the macro-economic control, we should consider above-mentioned factors synthetically, and take different economic means to the characteristic of different industries
引文
1 陈宏，韩轶，戴华．利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构．电子科技大学学报，1997，26(3)：293-297
2 原毅军．经济增长周期与产业结构变动研究．中国工业经济，1991(6)：34-41
3 Wassily W. Leontief. Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic System of the United States. Review of Economic Statistics, 1936 (3): 105-125
4 王海建．直接消耗系数变动的比较分析．统计研究，1999(2)：17-20
5 R. Stone. Input-Output and National Accounts. Paris: Organization for European Economic Cooperation, 1961
6 Stone Richard, A. Brown. (1962) A Computable Model of Economic Growth. Vol. 1, A Programme for Growth. London, Chapman and Hall.
7 Cambridge University, Department of Applied Economics. (1963) Input-Output Relationships, 1954-1966. Vol. 3, A Programme for Growth. London, Chapman and Hall.
8 Bacharach, Michael. (1970) Biproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change. Cambridge,Cambridge University Press.
9 Randall W. Jackson, Alan T. Murray. Alternate Formulations for Updating Input-Output Matrices. the Fourteenth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, October 10-15, 2002, Montreal, Canada
10 李善同，钟思斌．我国产业关联和产业结构变化的特点分析．管理世界，1998(3)：61-68
11 臧旭恒，徐向艺，杨蕙馨．《产业经济学》．经济科学出版社，2002：304-305
12 Chenery, H.B. and Watanabe, T (1958), "International Comparisons of the Structure of Production", Econometrica, 26 (4), October, pp.487-521.
13 王岳平．我国产业结构的投入产出关联分析．管理世界，2000(4)：59-65
14 李永．我国目前产业关联效果的实证分析．广西社会科学，2003(3)：80-82
15 张小蒂，李海峰．浙江省产业关联度分析．浙江统计，1994(10)：14-16
16 张志英．产业关联分析法与我国主导产业的选择分析．上海统计，2000(3)：21-23
17 李国娟．从产业关联看上海产业结构的调整方向．上海统计，2000(10)：8-11
18 高素英，徐兢学，王辉．利用投入产出模型分析产业结构．河北工业大学学报，2000(4)：37-39
19 杨斌斌．我国产业结构的投入产出分析．统计与信息论坛，2002(5)：23-27
20 Guo Ju-e. Some Trends on Change in Direct Input Coefficient of China. 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, University of Macerata, Italy, 2000
21 Okuyama, Y., G.J.D. Hewings, et al. (2002) . An Econometric Analysis of Biproportional Properties. Journal of regional science 42(2): 361-388.
22 《中国统计年鉴》1998，2000，2003
23 B.Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Guoqiang Yue. Intersectoral Linkages and Key Sectors in China 1987-1997--An Application of Input-output Linkage Analysis. 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, University of Macerata, Italy, 2000
24 Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. (1985) Regional Input-Output Analysis, Beverly Hills, Sage Publications.
25 厉无畏，王振．中国产业发展前沿问题．上海人民出版社，2003
26 苏东水．产业经济学．高等教育出版社，2000
27 郭克莎．结构优化与经济发展．广东经济出版社，2001
28 江小涓．中国工业中长期发展预测及结构变动趋势．管理世界，1995(3)
29 张立群．中国产业结构矛盾再认识．经济研究，1992(4)
30 周英章，蒋振声．我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究．浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)，2002，32(3)：146-152
2 原毅军．经济增长周期与产业结构变动研究．中国工业经济，1991(6)：34-41
3 Wassily W. Leontief. Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic System of the United States. Review of Economic Statistics, 1936 (3): 105-125
4 王海建．直接消耗系数变动的比较分析．统计研究，1999(2)：17-20
5 R. Stone. Input-Output and National Accounts. Paris: Organization for European Economic Cooperation, 1961
6 Stone Richard, A. Brown. (1962) A Computable Model of Economic Growth. Vol. 1, A Programme for Growth. London, Chapman and Hall.
7 Cambridge University, Department of Applied Economics. (1963) Input-Output Relationships, 1954-1966. Vol. 3, A Programme for Growth. London, Chapman and Hall.
8 Bacharach, Michael. (1970) Biproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change. Cambridge,Cambridge University Press.
9 Randall W. Jackson, Alan T. Murray. Alternate Formulations for Updating Input-Output Matrices. the Fourteenth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, October 10-15, 2002, Montreal, Canada
10 李善同，钟思斌．我国产业关联和产业结构变化的特点分析．管理世界，1998(3)：61-68
11 臧旭恒，徐向艺，杨蕙馨．《产业经济学》．经济科学出版社，2002：304-305
12 Chenery, H.B. and Watanabe, T (1958), "International Comparisons of the Structure of Production", Econometrica, 26 (4), October, pp.487-521.
13 王岳平．我国产业结构的投入产出关联分析．管理世界，2000(4)：59-65
14 李永．我国目前产业关联效果的实证分析．广西社会科学，2003(3)：80-82
15 张小蒂，李海峰．浙江省产业关联度分析．浙江统计，1994(10)：14-16
16 张志英．产业关联分析法与我国主导产业的选择分析．上海统计，2000(3)：21-23
17 李国娟．从产业关联看上海产业结构的调整方向．上海统计，2000(10)：8-11
18 高素英，徐兢学，王辉．利用投入产出模型分析产业结构．河北工业大学学报，2000(4)：37-39
19 杨斌斌．我国产业结构的投入产出分析．统计与信息论坛，2002(5)：23-27
20 Guo Ju-e. Some Trends on Change in Direct Input Coefficient of China. 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, University of Macerata, Italy, 2000
21 Okuyama, Y., G.J.D. Hewings, et al. (2002) . An Econometric Analysis of Biproportional Properties. Journal of regional science 42(2): 361-388.
22 《中国统计年鉴》1998，2000，2003
23 B.Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Guoqiang Yue. Intersectoral Linkages and Key Sectors in China 1987-1997--An Application of Input-output Linkage Analysis. 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, University of Macerata, Italy, 2000
24 Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. (1985) Regional Input-Output Analysis, Beverly Hills, Sage Publications.
25 厉无畏，王振．中国产业发展前沿问题．上海人民出版社，2003
26 苏东水．产业经济学．高等教育出版社，2000
27 郭克莎．结构优化与经济发展．广东经济出版社，2001
28 江小涓．中国工业中长期发展预测及结构变动趋势．管理世界，1995(3)
29 张立群．中国产业结构矛盾再认识．经济研究，1992(4)
30 周英章，蒋振声．我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究．浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)，2002，32(3)：146-152