自由贸易的环境效应研究
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摘要
本文在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,结合中国贸易自由化进程中工业进出口贸易的实例,采用规范研究和经验分析相结合的方法,针对“自由贸易的环境效应”这一命题,展开了较为系统、深入的讨论。
理论上,应用国际贸易学、环境经济学及福利经济学的原理和分析方法,将环境要素纳入自由贸易理论的分析框架,论证了环境比较优势的产生及其对贸易模式和贸易(环境)利益的影响。其次,从“污染避难所效应”与“要素禀赋效应”,“环境三效应”和贸易隐含污染的国际间转移等视角,分析了自由贸易环境效应的作用机理；进而应用投入产出经济学的原理和方法并借鉴“环境三效应”原理,构建了测度贸易隐含污染物和“环境三效应”的计量模型。
在实证方面,首先对中国对外贸易的环境影响进行了描述性统计分析。在概述我国外贸基本特征的基础上,着重对主要工业行业的三废排放变化进行了比较分析。分析结果表明：目前我国粗放式的对外贸易增长方式,加重了日益严峻的环境压力,并使自身的可持续发展受到严重挑战；出口贸易加剧了国内环境污染,但进口贸易则有效缓解了资源、环境的压力。
其次,运用上述计量模型,分别测算了我国对外贸易,尤其是工业进出口贸易隐含三废污染排放量及含污贸易条件等指标；并估计了工业出口贸易的环境“三效应”、交互效应和净效应。研究发现目前我国工业出口的环境净效应为负,根本原因在于巨大的负面出口规模效应。出口结构效应亦为负,但影响较小；技术效应为正,一定程度上抑制了规模和结构的负效应。然而,当结合进口贸易含污量分析时发现,进口的排污替代效应显著,且含污贸易条件均小于1,表明我国贸易自由化总体上有利于生态环境改善,目前不存在“贸易顺差、环境逆差”的不利格局。换言之,污染避难所效应不成立,要素禀赋效应对环境影响起决定作用。这意味着我国由传统要素禀赋决定的比较优势和贸易模式,并未因为较宽松的环境规制而发生根本改变。但是,近年有关工业污染物含污贸易条件趋升的迹象表明,对我国贸易自由化的环境效应不可盲目乐观。
最后,本文指出可持续贸易是实现贸易与环境双赢目标的必由之路,并提出以协调贸易政策和环境规制为重心,构建中国可持续贸易政策体系的若干建议。
Based on the existing studies, this dissertation investigates the environmental effects of free trade, especially focuses on the impact of China's foreign trade on local pollution emissions in the process of the trade liberalization by means of normative and empirical analysis.
Theoretically, the dissertation firstly demonstrates how the environmental comparative advantage occurs and how it affects the trade pattern and trade benefits, especially, the environmental benefits with the environmental factors taken into H-O model, by using the principles of international trade, environmental economics and welfare economics. Next the mechanism of the free trade's environmental effects is studied, from the points of the Pollution Haven Effect & Factor Endowment Effect, "the three environmental effects", and the international transfer of pollution induced by the emissions embodied in trade. Finally, according to the principle of input-output analysis, the econometric model of trade liberalization's environmental effects is built.
In terms of empirical analysis, first, this dissertation provides a statistical description about the characteristics of foreign trade in China, its impact on environment, and the industrial pollution emissions of the major industrial branches. The results indicate that the extensive growth mode of China foreign trade has severely worsened the local environment and challenged the sustainable development of itself. Also it finds that the export increases the pollution while the import relieves the burdens on the resource and environment.
Second, using the model mentioned above, the dissertation calculates separately the amount of emissions of the waste water, waste gas and solid waste embodied in industrial export & import trade in China, including these of the major industrial branches, and the pollution term of trade (PTT) as well. The dissertation also estimates the scale effect, structure effect, technical effect, their cross reactions and the net environmental effect of the industrial export. We find that the net environmental effect is negative, i.e, the export harms the local environment. The fundamental cause is the huge scale of the export; the structure effect is also negative but relatively small whereas technical effect is positive. When taking the import into consideration, we find that it has great "substituted effect" on local pollution emissions, and also the ratio of PTT is smaller than 1, which means the industrial foreign trade is good to the local ecological environment, and at present, there doesn't exist such a situation that china has a trade surplus but an environment deficit. In other words, Factor Endowment Effect plays a decisive role on the environmental effect of free trade while Pollution Heaven Effect is not the case. The comparative advantage and the trade pattern of China's foreign trade are still decided by the H-O Principle, and our relatively lax environmental regulations cannot change the comparative advantage. But the rising trend of the PTT ratio warns that we can't be so optimistic about China's environmental effects of trade liberalization.
Lastly but not least, the dissertation points out sustainable trade is the way to fulfill the win-win target between free trade and environment in China. Some suggestions, especially trade policies and environmental regulations, are recommended so as to get the Chinese sustainable trade policy system.
理论上,应用国际贸易学、环境经济学及福利经济学的原理和分析方法,将环境要素纳入自由贸易理论的分析框架,论证了环境比较优势的产生及其对贸易模式和贸易(环境)利益的影响。其次,从“污染避难所效应”与“要素禀赋效应”,“环境三效应”和贸易隐含污染的国际间转移等视角,分析了自由贸易环境效应的作用机理；进而应用投入产出经济学的原理和方法并借鉴“环境三效应”原理,构建了测度贸易隐含污染物和“环境三效应”的计量模型。
在实证方面,首先对中国对外贸易的环境影响进行了描述性统计分析。在概述我国外贸基本特征的基础上,着重对主要工业行业的三废排放变化进行了比较分析。分析结果表明：目前我国粗放式的对外贸易增长方式,加重了日益严峻的环境压力,并使自身的可持续发展受到严重挑战；出口贸易加剧了国内环境污染,但进口贸易则有效缓解了资源、环境的压力。
其次,运用上述计量模型,分别测算了我国对外贸易,尤其是工业进出口贸易隐含三废污染排放量及含污贸易条件等指标；并估计了工业出口贸易的环境“三效应”、交互效应和净效应。研究发现目前我国工业出口的环境净效应为负,根本原因在于巨大的负面出口规模效应。出口结构效应亦为负,但影响较小；技术效应为正,一定程度上抑制了规模和结构的负效应。然而,当结合进口贸易含污量分析时发现,进口的排污替代效应显著,且含污贸易条件均小于1,表明我国贸易自由化总体上有利于生态环境改善,目前不存在“贸易顺差、环境逆差”的不利格局。换言之,污染避难所效应不成立,要素禀赋效应对环境影响起决定作用。这意味着我国由传统要素禀赋决定的比较优势和贸易模式,并未因为较宽松的环境规制而发生根本改变。但是,近年有关工业污染物含污贸易条件趋升的迹象表明,对我国贸易自由化的环境效应不可盲目乐观。
最后,本文指出可持续贸易是实现贸易与环境双赢目标的必由之路,并提出以协调贸易政策和环境规制为重心,构建中国可持续贸易政策体系的若干建议。
Based on the existing studies, this dissertation investigates the environmental effects of free trade, especially focuses on the impact of China's foreign trade on local pollution emissions in the process of the trade liberalization by means of normative and empirical analysis.
Theoretically, the dissertation firstly demonstrates how the environmental comparative advantage occurs and how it affects the trade pattern and trade benefits, especially, the environmental benefits with the environmental factors taken into H-O model, by using the principles of international trade, environmental economics and welfare economics. Next the mechanism of the free trade's environmental effects is studied, from the points of the Pollution Haven Effect & Factor Endowment Effect, "the three environmental effects", and the international transfer of pollution induced by the emissions embodied in trade. Finally, according to the principle of input-output analysis, the econometric model of trade liberalization's environmental effects is built.
In terms of empirical analysis, first, this dissertation provides a statistical description about the characteristics of foreign trade in China, its impact on environment, and the industrial pollution emissions of the major industrial branches. The results indicate that the extensive growth mode of China foreign trade has severely worsened the local environment and challenged the sustainable development of itself. Also it finds that the export increases the pollution while the import relieves the burdens on the resource and environment.
Second, using the model mentioned above, the dissertation calculates separately the amount of emissions of the waste water, waste gas and solid waste embodied in industrial export & import trade in China, including these of the major industrial branches, and the pollution term of trade (PTT) as well. The dissertation also estimates the scale effect, structure effect, technical effect, their cross reactions and the net environmental effect of the industrial export. We find that the net environmental effect is negative, i.e, the export harms the local environment. The fundamental cause is the huge scale of the export; the structure effect is also negative but relatively small whereas technical effect is positive. When taking the import into consideration, we find that it has great "substituted effect" on local pollution emissions, and also the ratio of PTT is smaller than 1, which means the industrial foreign trade is good to the local ecological environment, and at present, there doesn't exist such a situation that china has a trade surplus but an environment deficit. In other words, Factor Endowment Effect plays a decisive role on the environmental effect of free trade while Pollution Heaven Effect is not the case. The comparative advantage and the trade pattern of China's foreign trade are still decided by the H-O Principle, and our relatively lax environmental regulations cannot change the comparative advantage. But the rising trend of the PTT ratio warns that we can't be so optimistic about China's environmental effects of trade liberalization.
Lastly but not least, the dissertation points out sustainable trade is the way to fulfill the win-win target between free trade and environment in China. Some suggestions, especially trade policies and environmental regulations, are recommended so as to get the Chinese sustainable trade policy system.
引文
4 李怀政国际贸易与环境问题溯源及其研究进展国际贸易问题,2009.04 pp68
8 这意味着资本和劳动要素的边际替代率不受污染水平的影响。
9 游德才国内外对经济环境协调发展研究进展：文献综述上海经济研究2008.6 pp3-15
10Soumyanada Dinda Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey Ecological Economics,2004,49 (4), 431-455.
13 Managi, S,. A, Hibiki and T, Tsurumi (2009), "Do Trade Openness Improve Environmental Quality? ", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 58(3):pp346-363.
30 强永昌《环境规制与中国对外贸易可持续发展》复旦大学出版社,2006.8 pp25
31 俄林《地区间贸易和国际贸易》,哈佛大学出版社,1967年修订版pp7,pp34
32 Donald R.Davis 和 David E.Weinstein (2001)"The Factor Content of Trade" National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper Series, No.8637 pp2 http://www.nber.org/papers/w8637
33 吴易明环境经济政策对贸易影响的理论分析国际经贸探索2007.8 pp6
36 本节所用局部均衡分析简图参考或引用了：Kym Anderson and Richard Blackhurst《The Greening of World Trade Issues》 P28-38, First published 1992 by Harvester Wheatsheaf
46 赵景峰沙汉英：论贸易全球化下国际交换关系的本质[J]当代亚太,2005.0 1 pp：17-21
47 数据引自国务院发展研究中心报告《中国：在应对危机中寻求新突破》国务院发展研究中心课题组2009,4,来源：中经http://www.cei.gov.cn/LoadPage.aspx?Page=ShowDoc&CategoryAlias
48 数据来源同上
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8 这意味着资本和劳动要素的边际替代率不受污染水平的影响。
9 游德才国内外对经济环境协调发展研究进展：文献综述上海经济研究2008.6 pp3-15
10Soumyanada Dinda Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey Ecological Economics,2004,49 (4), 431-455.
13 Managi, S,. A, Hibiki and T, Tsurumi (2009), "Do Trade Openness Improve Environmental Quality? ", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 58(3):pp346-363.
30 强永昌《环境规制与中国对外贸易可持续发展》复旦大学出版社,2006.8 pp25
31 俄林《地区间贸易和国际贸易》,哈佛大学出版社,1967年修订版pp7,pp34
32 Donald R.Davis 和 David E.Weinstein (2001)"The Factor Content of Trade" National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper Series, No.8637 pp2 http://www.nber.org/papers/w8637
33 吴易明环境经济政策对贸易影响的理论分析国际经贸探索2007.8 pp6
36 本节所用局部均衡分析简图参考或引用了：Kym Anderson and Richard Blackhurst《The Greening of World Trade Issues》 P28-38, First published 1992 by Harvester Wheatsheaf
46 赵景峰沙汉英：论贸易全球化下国际交换关系的本质[J]当代亚太,2005.0 1 pp：17-21
47 数据引自国务院发展研究中心报告《中国：在应对危机中寻求新突破》国务院发展研究中心课题组2009,4,来源：中经http://www.cei.gov.cn/LoadPage.aspx?Page=ShowDoc&CategoryAlias
48 数据来源同上
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