金融发展影响经济增长的多重机制
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摘要
本论文研究的核心是,中国的金融发展通过哪些渠道对经济增长产生影响?具体而言,我们试图从资本有效积累的前端、资本有效积累的过程和资本有效积累的后端(结果)这三个方面探究中国的金融发展影响经济增长的不同机制。全文由七章组成。
第一章通过归纳和对比,总结了以往研究中关于金融发展的一般内涵的界定,并在中国转型期背景下拓展了金融发展的一般内涵,使其适用于中国经济发展的转型期特征。中国的金融系统不论从金融服务的供给还是从结构演化上看都与发达金融系统存在不小的差距。我们注意到,西方经济学家在研究金融发展时所处的经济环境和语义环境具有一些很重要的事实前提。因此,在理解中国的金融发展时,我们应该同时强调两点:一方面,金融发展体现为不断健全和完善金融系统的基本功能。另一方面,不断在改革过程中调整金融结构,尤其是银行业市场结构,使其不仅在静态上更加符合经济结构和经济发展的要求,而且在动态上具有最佳的适应能力,从长远看,金融系统应运行于相对稳态之中。这是中国转型过程中金融发展的另一层重要含义,也是既往研究中重视不够的地方。
在拓展金融发展在中国的具体内涵后,我们在第二章首先对现有的文献进行评析,归纳了金融发展影响经济增长的若干种微观机制,并讨论了两者之间的因果关系。然后构建了度量中国金融发展的两个指标,一个以信贷资产(全部金融机构贷款)在GDP中的比率度量,另一个以银行业市场竞争程度来度量。最后根据研究内容和数据特征,比较并确定相应的计量经济学技术。
第三章首先提供了国际上和我国金融发展与经济增长关系的一些特征事实。其次,重点分析中国金融体制改革的历程,抓住银行业改革这一条主线,并考察了信贷资金管理体制的变革。从改革路线上为度量中国金融发展的两个指标提供支持。
在做了理论准备、指标构建和数据整理工作之后,本文进入实证分析部分,实证部分由逻辑上相互联结的三块内容组成。
第四章从资本有效积累的前端着手。在收入差距持续扩大不利于我国高储蓄模式的转变,从而不利于资本有效积累的情况下,我们使用1992-2005年的省级面板数据和动态面板回归技术,考察金融发展与影响我国居民储蓄模式的城乡收入差距之间的关系。第四章主要结论是:(1)以信贷资产指标度量的金融发展对缩小城乡收入差距会产生不利影响;(2)以银行业市场竞争度指标度量的金融发展对缩小城乡收入差距有利;(3)改善银行业市场结构不仅有利于促进农村居民人均收入的增加,而且还能刺激农村居民的消费支出。总体上看,金融发展促进居民储蓄的有效形成(通过降低城乡收入差距的方式),有利于转变中国的高储蓄模式,改善投资效率,从而有利于经济增长。
第五章从资本有效积累的过程着手。我们整理了中国1993-2004年的省级面板数据,运用动态面板技术,重点考察了转型期中国的资本形成与银行业市场结构变迁之间的内在联系。从改革过程看,我国银行业市场的产权改革已经先行,但是银行业市场结构的变化还并不十分明显,从动态面板回归方程估计结果看,伴随着国有企业改革,银行业市场集中程度的下降使得资本形成对经济增长的敏感性呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,但是,资本形成对经济增长的反应仍旧低弥,徘徊于U型曲线的最底端。不过,我们的结果同时显示部分地区已经越过了U型反应曲线的最底端,资本形成再次对经济增长(产出需求)体现出较高的敏感性。我们的实证结果显示,金融发展促进资本形成机制的转型,资本形成的市场化机制逐渐占主导地位,资源配置效率提高,从而有利于经济增长。因此,相对与银行业市场的产权改革,银行业市场结构的改革还需要进一步跟上。
第六章从资本有效积累的后端(结果)着手。我们使用中国分省1993-2005年的面板数据和固定效应面板回归技术,首先检验了金融发展在经济增长和经济波动之间的作用。实证结果显示,随着我国金融系统市场化改革的推进和系统本身的不断完善,金融发展能够降低经济增长对外生冲击的敏感性,从而为经济的长期增长提供了稳定的运行环境,防止宏观经济大起伏的波动。其次,我们从回归模型的结论中发现,金融发展平抑经济波动的作用很可能是通过优化经济中的投资结构来实现的,这是金融发展影响经济增长的重要途径和机制之一。因此,我们找到了一条从资本有效积累后端(结果),即优化投资结构角度理解金融发展影响经济增长的途径,把金融发展、经济波动和经济增长三者有机地结合在一起,即金融发展促进投资结构的优化,防止经济过度波动,从而有利于促进长期经济增长。
第七章在总结前文的基础上,得到本文的最终结论。总体来看,中国的金融系统在改革开放的三十多年中逐渐完善,不仅为改革开放过程中的各方面需求提供了及时的帮助,也度过了一次次严峻考验。然而,中国金融系统的发展还有很长的路要走,尤其在各国经济利益休戚相关的情况下,我国金融系统进一步发展还会遇到许许多多新的问题。研究中国的金融发展对中国增长奇迹的贡献与影响是难得的机遇,同时也是艰巨的挑战。
The key issue of this thesis is that through which channels China’s financial development has an impact on economic growth. We are concerned about three mechanisms. In particular, we research into the impact of financial development on growth at three continuous stages (before, during and after) of effective capital formation. This thesis consists of seven chapters.
Chapter one extends the connotation of financial development in the context of China’s economic transition. We argue that the supply of financial services and the evolution of financial structure are both critical when reviewing the evolution of China’s financial system. Financial development in China consists of two aspects. The first one is that financial development means continuously improving basic functions of financial system. The second one is that during the economic reform, financial development needs financial structure adjustment, especially banking marketing structure adjustment in China, in response to the economic development. The second aspect is lack of enough attention in previous research.
Chapter two first reviews literatures, analyses several mechanisms through which financial development has an impact on growth and causality between financial development and growth. Then we construct two indicators to measure the financial development. The first indicator is the ratio of credit of all financial institutions to GDP and the second one is the degree of competition in banking market. Finally we make a choice among several econometric techniques.
In Chapter three, we first present some stylized facts about the financial development-growth nexus. Then we analyze the process of China’s financial system since China’s reform and opening-up. We find out that the banking reform is the core of the entire process. Finally we take a look at the changes in the credit capital management system.
We launch our positive analysis since Chapter four. In this chapter we focus on the role of financial development in economic growth before the beginning of effective capital formation. Under the circumstance that continuously enlarged income disparity has negative impact on the alteration of high saving mode and effective capital formation, using provincial data from 1992 to 2005 and dynamic panel data technique, we find that financial development can facilitate residents’effective saving through reducing the income disparity. So financial development can promote to alter high saving mode, improve investment effectiveness and therefore accelerate economic growth.
Chapter five focuses on the role of financial development in economic growth during the effective capital formation. As we all know, the reforms on property right of banks has been going on for many years, but the banking market structure has not been changed much. Using provincial data from 1993 to 2004 and dynamic panel data technique, we investigate the relation between capital formation and banking market structure. We find that (1) the change of banking market structure is a result of reforms in SOEs and financial system; (2) the banking market structure has a nonlinear, i.e. U-shaped curve, effect on investment, in the sense that it enhances the response of capital formation to growth. The main explanation of this phenomenon is that the needs of external finance of SMEs still have not been satisfied with the degree of concentration in banking market decreasing. The results support the idea that financial development promotes the transition of capital formation from central planning-oriented to market-oriented system.
Chapter six focuses on the role of financial development in economic growth after the effective capital formation. Using provincial panel data of China (1993-2005), we find that financial development can decrease the responsiveness of economic growth to exogenous shocks, thus it offers a good environment for stable economic growth in the long run. We believe that this effect comes from optimizing the composition of investment during economic development through financial development. The further evidence supports this idea.
Based on the previous research we come to the conclusion. Generally the financial development in China during last 30 years has positive impact on economic growth. On the road to the future we may encounter a lot of obstacles. Further reforms in financial system are very necessary.
第一章通过归纳和对比,总结了以往研究中关于金融发展的一般内涵的界定,并在中国转型期背景下拓展了金融发展的一般内涵,使其适用于中国经济发展的转型期特征。中国的金融系统不论从金融服务的供给还是从结构演化上看都与发达金融系统存在不小的差距。我们注意到,西方经济学家在研究金融发展时所处的经济环境和语义环境具有一些很重要的事实前提。因此,在理解中国的金融发展时,我们应该同时强调两点:一方面,金融发展体现为不断健全和完善金融系统的基本功能。另一方面,不断在改革过程中调整金融结构,尤其是银行业市场结构,使其不仅在静态上更加符合经济结构和经济发展的要求,而且在动态上具有最佳的适应能力,从长远看,金融系统应运行于相对稳态之中。这是中国转型过程中金融发展的另一层重要含义,也是既往研究中重视不够的地方。
在拓展金融发展在中国的具体内涵后,我们在第二章首先对现有的文献进行评析,归纳了金融发展影响经济增长的若干种微观机制,并讨论了两者之间的因果关系。然后构建了度量中国金融发展的两个指标,一个以信贷资产(全部金融机构贷款)在GDP中的比率度量,另一个以银行业市场竞争程度来度量。最后根据研究内容和数据特征,比较并确定相应的计量经济学技术。
第三章首先提供了国际上和我国金融发展与经济增长关系的一些特征事实。其次,重点分析中国金融体制改革的历程,抓住银行业改革这一条主线,并考察了信贷资金管理体制的变革。从改革路线上为度量中国金融发展的两个指标提供支持。
在做了理论准备、指标构建和数据整理工作之后,本文进入实证分析部分,实证部分由逻辑上相互联结的三块内容组成。
第四章从资本有效积累的前端着手。在收入差距持续扩大不利于我国高储蓄模式的转变,从而不利于资本有效积累的情况下,我们使用1992-2005年的省级面板数据和动态面板回归技术,考察金融发展与影响我国居民储蓄模式的城乡收入差距之间的关系。第四章主要结论是:(1)以信贷资产指标度量的金融发展对缩小城乡收入差距会产生不利影响;(2)以银行业市场竞争度指标度量的金融发展对缩小城乡收入差距有利;(3)改善银行业市场结构不仅有利于促进农村居民人均收入的增加,而且还能刺激农村居民的消费支出。总体上看,金融发展促进居民储蓄的有效形成(通过降低城乡收入差距的方式),有利于转变中国的高储蓄模式,改善投资效率,从而有利于经济增长。
第五章从资本有效积累的过程着手。我们整理了中国1993-2004年的省级面板数据,运用动态面板技术,重点考察了转型期中国的资本形成与银行业市场结构变迁之间的内在联系。从改革过程看,我国银行业市场的产权改革已经先行,但是银行业市场结构的变化还并不十分明显,从动态面板回归方程估计结果看,伴随着国有企业改革,银行业市场集中程度的下降使得资本形成对经济增长的敏感性呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,但是,资本形成对经济增长的反应仍旧低弥,徘徊于U型曲线的最底端。不过,我们的结果同时显示部分地区已经越过了U型反应曲线的最底端,资本形成再次对经济增长(产出需求)体现出较高的敏感性。我们的实证结果显示,金融发展促进资本形成机制的转型,资本形成的市场化机制逐渐占主导地位,资源配置效率提高,从而有利于经济增长。因此,相对与银行业市场的产权改革,银行业市场结构的改革还需要进一步跟上。
第六章从资本有效积累的后端(结果)着手。我们使用中国分省1993-2005年的面板数据和固定效应面板回归技术,首先检验了金融发展在经济增长和经济波动之间的作用。实证结果显示,随着我国金融系统市场化改革的推进和系统本身的不断完善,金融发展能够降低经济增长对外生冲击的敏感性,从而为经济的长期增长提供了稳定的运行环境,防止宏观经济大起伏的波动。其次,我们从回归模型的结论中发现,金融发展平抑经济波动的作用很可能是通过优化经济中的投资结构来实现的,这是金融发展影响经济增长的重要途径和机制之一。因此,我们找到了一条从资本有效积累后端(结果),即优化投资结构角度理解金融发展影响经济增长的途径,把金融发展、经济波动和经济增长三者有机地结合在一起,即金融发展促进投资结构的优化,防止经济过度波动,从而有利于促进长期经济增长。
第七章在总结前文的基础上,得到本文的最终结论。总体来看,中国的金融系统在改革开放的三十多年中逐渐完善,不仅为改革开放过程中的各方面需求提供了及时的帮助,也度过了一次次严峻考验。然而,中国金融系统的发展还有很长的路要走,尤其在各国经济利益休戚相关的情况下,我国金融系统进一步发展还会遇到许许多多新的问题。研究中国的金融发展对中国增长奇迹的贡献与影响是难得的机遇,同时也是艰巨的挑战。
The key issue of this thesis is that through which channels China’s financial development has an impact on economic growth. We are concerned about three mechanisms. In particular, we research into the impact of financial development on growth at three continuous stages (before, during and after) of effective capital formation. This thesis consists of seven chapters.
Chapter one extends the connotation of financial development in the context of China’s economic transition. We argue that the supply of financial services and the evolution of financial structure are both critical when reviewing the evolution of China’s financial system. Financial development in China consists of two aspects. The first one is that financial development means continuously improving basic functions of financial system. The second one is that during the economic reform, financial development needs financial structure adjustment, especially banking marketing structure adjustment in China, in response to the economic development. The second aspect is lack of enough attention in previous research.
Chapter two first reviews literatures, analyses several mechanisms through which financial development has an impact on growth and causality between financial development and growth. Then we construct two indicators to measure the financial development. The first indicator is the ratio of credit of all financial institutions to GDP and the second one is the degree of competition in banking market. Finally we make a choice among several econometric techniques.
In Chapter three, we first present some stylized facts about the financial development-growth nexus. Then we analyze the process of China’s financial system since China’s reform and opening-up. We find out that the banking reform is the core of the entire process. Finally we take a look at the changes in the credit capital management system.
We launch our positive analysis since Chapter four. In this chapter we focus on the role of financial development in economic growth before the beginning of effective capital formation. Under the circumstance that continuously enlarged income disparity has negative impact on the alteration of high saving mode and effective capital formation, using provincial data from 1992 to 2005 and dynamic panel data technique, we find that financial development can facilitate residents’effective saving through reducing the income disparity. So financial development can promote to alter high saving mode, improve investment effectiveness and therefore accelerate economic growth.
Chapter five focuses on the role of financial development in economic growth during the effective capital formation. As we all know, the reforms on property right of banks has been going on for many years, but the banking market structure has not been changed much. Using provincial data from 1993 to 2004 and dynamic panel data technique, we investigate the relation between capital formation and banking market structure. We find that (1) the change of banking market structure is a result of reforms in SOEs and financial system; (2) the banking market structure has a nonlinear, i.e. U-shaped curve, effect on investment, in the sense that it enhances the response of capital formation to growth. The main explanation of this phenomenon is that the needs of external finance of SMEs still have not been satisfied with the degree of concentration in banking market decreasing. The results support the idea that financial development promotes the transition of capital formation from central planning-oriented to market-oriented system.
Chapter six focuses on the role of financial development in economic growth after the effective capital formation. Using provincial panel data of China (1993-2005), we find that financial development can decrease the responsiveness of economic growth to exogenous shocks, thus it offers a good environment for stable economic growth in the long run. We believe that this effect comes from optimizing the composition of investment during economic development through financial development. The further evidence supports this idea.
Based on the previous research we come to the conclusion. Generally the financial development in China during last 30 years has positive impact on economic growth. On the road to the future we may encounter a lot of obstacles. Further reforms in financial system are very necessary.
引文
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