用户名: 密码: 验证码:
日常消费类上市公司绩效影响因素研究
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
从上世纪90年代以来,我国人均居民消费水平增长速度滞后于人均GDP的增长速度,居民消费率不仅低于发达国家,也低于发展中国家。作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一的消费没有对经济增长发挥应有的贡献,形成我国经济社会发展中过分依靠投资与出口的局面。因此,扩大内需,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用成为宏观调控的主基调。消费类上市公司作为消费品生产和运营的企业组织代表,是消费品供应链和价值链中的重要环节。消费类上市公司的生产运营及经营绩效状况,将直接影响消费品的供求关系及居民消费的进一步扩大。因此,本研究以日常消费类上市公司为研究对象,在阐述日常消费类上市公司基本现状的基础上,从经济增长、居民消费等外生性因素和公司治理这一最主要的人力资产因素这两个角度,分析影响日常消费类上市公司经营绩效的内外部因素,提出对策建议,以促进日常消费是上市公司绩效的持续增长。这对推动我国经济由投资与出口主导型增长模式向消费、投资、出口协调拉动型增长模式转变,促进整个国民经济持续健康发展具有理论和实际意义。
     本研究以在居民日常消费中占比重最高且竞争较激烈的纺织、服装、食品和饮料等6个行业作为日常消费类上市公司的研究对象,选择国内A股上市公司中日常消费类上市公司共计87家,运用其1998-2009年共12年的相关数据研究影响公司绩效的因素。文章在统计分析日常消费类上市公司基本特征和财务状况的基础上,以经济增长和公司治理相关理论为基本分析框架,对面板数据进行平稳性检验后,实证分析外部经济增长、居民消费和公司治理对日常消费类上市公司绩效的影响,最后根据研究结论,提出了相关对策建议。研究的主要内容及得出的主要研究结论主要有以下几方面:
     1.日常消费类上市公司的一般性分析。简要回顾我国股票市场发展历程的基础上,着重对日常消费类上市公司行业分布、财务状况、资本结构、股权结构等进行描述性统计分析,这是本研究的现实背景。分析表明:日常消费类上市公司十多年来得到了较快发展,上市时间主要集中在90年代后期,地理分布上主要集中在经济发达的省市;日常消费类上市公司总体盈利能力不强,但平均每股收益和净资产收益率有较好的增长趋势,公司偿债能力总体较为稳定,资产管理能力则稳中有升,特别是应收账款周转率有较大提高;但是日常消费类上市公司整体增长能力不佳,尤其是净利润增长率,波动较大,并有下降的趋势;股权结构上,日常消费类上市公司的股权较为集中,且以国有控股公司为主。
     2.经济增长与日常消费类上市公司绩效关系研究。通过对数据的格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,运用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,实证分析我国经济增长与日常消费类上市公司业绩的动态影响关系。研究结果表明:经济增长及其组成部分固定资产投资额、社会消费品零售总额与日常消费类上市公司业绩之间存在长期动态的关系。日常消费类上市公司绩效受自身影响最大,经济增长对上市公司业绩也有较大影响;从反映经济增长的各个具体构成指标看:社会消费品零售总额的影响较大且基本稳定在34%左右,这和日常消费品类上市公司的特点相吻合;固定资产投资额对日常消费类上市公司业绩的贡献率为17%,而净出口额对日常消费类上市公司业绩的影响较小,基本稳定在7%左右的水平上。
     3.居民消费与日常消费类上市公司绩效关系研究。同样,通过对数据的单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,采用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,实证分析居民消费与日常消费类上市公司业绩的动态影响关系。研究结果表明:城乡居民消费额、人均可支配收入、居民消费率和日常消费类上市公司业绩之间存在长期动态的关系。日常消费类上市公司绩效受其自身的影响较大,公司自身对绩效的贡献率为44%;人均可支配收入对其业绩的贡献率次之为39%;城乡居民消费额的贡献率占11%;而居民消费率对公司业绩的贡献率在5%左右。
     4.公司治理对日常消费类上市公司绩效的影响研究。首先运用日常消费类公司1998-2009年间的面板数据,采用面板协整检验方法,实证分析股权结构与上市公司绩效间的动态变动关系。实证结果表明:日常消费类上市公司股权结构对公司会计绩效存在滞后影响效应,即股权结构变化影响下两期的公司绩效,验证了股权结构和公司绩效之间存在动态变化关系;进一步的格兰杰因果检验表明,股权结构的调整变化是公司会计绩效变化的原因。股权结构变化会直接影响当期托宾Q,而对滞后1期和滞后2期的影响则不显著。其次,通过对各变量的相关检验,运用面板数据模型实证分析公司治理的内外部治理对公司绩效的影响。实证结果表明:股权过于集中会降低公司绩效,其滞后期变量与公司绩效则呈弱的负相关;流通股比例提高能加强对经营者的监督,促进公司绩效的改善;管理层持股比例与公司绩效相关性不显著;独立董事制度的实施对公司治理的改善和公司绩效的提升有促进作用;董事会规模、董事会会议次数与公司绩效呈弱负相关,董事人数增加带来的摩擦成本高于董事会集体判断能力增强带来的绩效后果;董事会领导结构与公司绩效间负相关。日常消费类上市公司竞争的产品市场和公司绩效显著负相关,健全的法律法规体系的约束有助于公司提高治理效率,保护中小股东的权益,提高公司绩效。样本公司股权结构和董事会治理各变量与托宾Q值间不存在显著的相关性,而公司外部治理对公司总资产收益率和托宾Q值均有显著影响。此外,对于资产负债率较低的样本公司,提高该比率能改善公司绩效。
     最后,根据以上研究结论,提出了提升日常消费类上市公司绩效的对策建议:包括提高居民消费率、提升日常消费类上市公司的发展潜力和竞争力、完善公司治理等。
Since1990', the growth rate of the level of per capita consumption has felled behind personal average GDP in China. The rate of resident consumption is lower than not only developed countries, but also developing ones. As one of the "three horse carriages" of economy growth, consumption doesn't play its contribution that results in the development of our economy and social depending more on investment and export. So it is a main key of macro-adjustment to expanding dominate demand and consumption. Daily consumption listed companies, as firms'delegates of production and management consumer goods, are the important link in consumer goods' supplying and value chain. Their management and performance directly impacts on the relationship of consumer goods'supply and demand. On the basis of description present condition of daily consumption listed companies, this paper empirically analyses factors influencing on corporate performance from the view of economic growth, resident consumption and corporate governance. It is very theoretical and practical significant to promote the transfer of our economy growth pattern from investment and export to consumption and the national economy development.
     The paper selects listed companies of textile, clothes, food and drinking industries which have the highest ratio in resident daily consumption as the study objective of daily consumption listed companies. Under the frame of theories of economic growth and corporate governance, the thesis statistically analyses listed companies basic feature and financial situation, through stable test to panel data, empirically analyses economic growth, resident consumption and corporate governance influencing on corporate performance. According to above research, the thesis finally proposes some advises. The main research contents and their conclusions of this paper include five aspects:
     Part1:Generally analysis of daily consumption listed companies. This chapter reviews the development history of Chinese stock market and statistically analyses industry distribution, financial institution, capital structure and ownership structure of listed companies, which is the realistic background of this research. We find that daily consumption listed companies have developed quickly since1990and mainly distribute in developed provinces. Their Average earnings per share and return on assets have better growth trend, capacity of payable and assets management are stable and receivables turnover ratio is increased. But the whole growth of daily consumption listed companies are not good, especially profits growth. Their ownership structure is centralize and mainly by state-owned.
     Part2:Study of economic growth and corporate performance. Based on Chinese daily consumption listed companies over1998to2009, through Granger and Johansen test to data, we examine the dynamic relation between economic growth and daily consumption listed companies accounting performance by vector auto-regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. On the basis of the empirical study, we find that there is a significant effect between economic growth and listed companies performance. Companies themselves impact their performance more than Economic growth. From specific variables of economic growth, social consumption has greater effect and contributes to the performance about34%which is consistent with the character of daily consumption listed companies. The solid investment contributes to companies' performance about17%and net export is only about7%.
     Part3:Study of resident consumption and corporate performance. Based on Chinese daily consumption listed companies over1998to2009, as above, through Granger and Johansen test to data, we examine the dynamic relation between resident consumption and daily consumption listed companies accounting performance by vector auto-regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. On the basis of the empirical study, we find that there is a significant effect between resident consumption and listed companies performance. Daily consumption listed companies themselves impacts of performance more than per dominant income. Each of them contributes to the performance44%and39%. Urban and rural resident consumpution affects the performance about11%, and the ratio of resident consumption's contribution is only about5%.
     Part4:Study of influencing on corporate governance to performance. First, based on Chinese daily consumption listed companies over1998to2009, through Panel Co integration Test to data, we empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between Ownership Structure and Corporate Performance. Ownership structure and corporate performance panel data unit root test results indicate the level of value is not stable but after a post-order difference time series are stationary and single entire order. The co integration test statistics in Group PP and Group ADF statistic is significant. On the basis of the empirical study, we find that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between ownership structure and corporate performance. Besides, there is time lag effect between the change of the ownership structure and corporate performance. The change of the ownership structure impacts on the next two term of corporate performance. The change of the ownership structure is the reason of the change of the corporate performance through Grange's test, not reverse. The change of the ownership structure affects current Tobin'sQ directly, not lag1and2. Then using panel data model, through relative test to every variable, the paper explores the relationship between corporate governance and its performance. On the basis of the empirical study, we find that high proportion of stockholders is not good to company's performance and its lag variable has negative effect on performance weakly. Circulation shares positively impacts on company's performance. However, we are unable to detect any relationship between the proportion of management stockholders and performance. Independent board institution can improve companies' governance and performance. However, the scale and meeting times of board of directors' has negative effect to corporate performance. Competitive market of daily consumption listed companies cann't improve their performance. The strength system of laws is helpful to improve governance efficient and protect the rights of middle and small shareholders.Each variable of the ownership structure and Tobin Q is not exist outstanding relevance. Besides, the ratio of debt-asset has positive effect to corporate performance.
     Finally, according to above research, the paper provides some advice to improve corporate performance, including increasing residents'consumption ratio, development potentialities and competitiveness of listed companies, corporate governance.
引文
1 国家统计局彭志龙,“国家统计局:我国居民消费率比不上印度”,上海证券报,2009-12-03。
    5 冷建飞,中国农业上市公司盈利性的影响因素研究,南京农业大学博士学位论文,2007。
    8 左晶晶,高管激励与企业业绩的U形关系—基于边际递减效应和过度激励的研究,中国金融学术研究网。
    1. Berk, Adolf, and Gardiner Means. The Modern Corporation and Private Property. New York: Macmillan.,1932.
    2. Benjamin A. Abugri. Empirical Relationship between Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Returns: Evidence from Latin American Markets[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,2008,17(2): 396-410.
    3. Brown,P. and Ball R., Some Preliminary Findings on the Association between the Earnings of a firm, Its Industry, and the Economy, Journal of Accounting Research,Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies,1967,55-77.
    4. Carting, K., Jacobson T., Linde J., and Roszbach K, Exploring Relationships between Firms Balance Sheets and the Macroeconomy, Conference paper, Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Journal of Financial Stability,2003.
    5. Chant,P. D.,1980,"On the Predictability of Corporate Earnings per Share Behavior", Journal of Finance,35(1):13—21.
    6. Claessens, S., Ownership and Cororate Governance:Evidence from the Czech Republic, working Paper of the World Bank,1997.
    7. Claessens S. and Joseph P. H. Fan, Corporate Governance in Asia:A Survey, International interview of Finance,2002(3),71-103.
    8. Demsetz H, Lehn K. The structure of corporate ownership:causes and consequences. JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1983,93 (6),1155-1177.
    9. Diane K. Denis, John J. McConnell International Corporate Governance,ECGI-Finance Working Paper No.05/2003.
    10. Fama, E., and M. Jensen, Seperation of Ownership and Control, Journal of Law and Economics, 1983 (26):301-325.
    11. Fahlenbrach R., Stulz R M. Managerial Ownership Dynamics and Firm Value. Journal of Financial Economics,2009,92. (3).
    12. Grossman, S. and O. Hart, The Costs and Benefit of Ownership:A Theory of Lateral and Vertical Integration, Journal of Political Economy,1986(94),691-719.
    13. Jarvinen J.,2000,"Essays on Industry Portfolios and Macroeconomic News", Working paper.
    14. Jensen, M.C. and W., H. Meckling, Theory of Firm:Managerial Behavior, Agency cost and Capital Structure, Journal of Financial Economics,1976 (3),305-360.
    15. Jin,Q. L. and Zhang G. C.,2005,"Business Cycle and Accounting Behavior", Working paper, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
    16. King, B. F.,1966, Market and Industry Factors in Stock Behavior, Journal of Bussiness,1966,39 (1), 139-160.
    17. La Porta R. L., Lopez-de-Silanes F. and Shleifer A., the EconomicConsequences of Legal Origin, Journal of Economic Literature,2008 (46),285-332.
    18. Lehmann E, Weig J. Does the governed corporation performbetter? Governance Structures and Corporate Performance in Germany, European Finance Review,2000,4 (2),157-195.
    19. Magee R. P., Industry-wide Commonalities in Earnings, Journal of Accountin Research,1974,12(2), 270-287.
    20. McConnell J, Servaes H. Additional Evidence on Equity Ownership and Corporate Value. Journal of Financial Economics,1990,27 (2),595-612.
    21. Morck R., "Corporations", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (second edition), Edited by Steven N. D. & L. E. Blume,2008(2),265-268.
    22. Morch R., Wolfenzon D. and Yeung, Corporate Goverance, Economic Entrenchment and Growth, Journal of Economic Literature,2005(43),655-720.
    23.Pederson T, Thomsen S., Economic and Systemic Explana-tions of Insider Ownership among Europes Largest Companies. International Journal of the Economics of Business,1999,6 (3): 367-381.
    24. Randall Moeck, Andrei Shleifer, Robert w, Vishny, Alterative Mechanisms for Corporate Control, America Economic Review,1989,9.
    25. Shleifer, A. and R.W. Vishny, A Survey of Corporate Governance, Journal of Finance,1997, 52:737-775.
    26. Tian Lihui,2002, Government Shareholding and The Value of China's Modern Firms, Working Paper, London Business School.
    27. Yermack, D.,1996. Higher market valuation of companies with a small board of directors. J. Financial Economics.40:185-211.
    28.陈工孟、支晓强、周清杰,公司治理概论[M],清华大学出版社,2003年。
    29.吴晓求,中国上市公司:资本结构与公司治理[M],中国人民大学出版社,2003年。
    30.胡鞍钢、胡光宇,公司治理中外比较[M],新华出版社,2004年。
    31.张维迎,产权、激励与公司治理[M],经济科学出版社,2005年。
    32.严武,公司股权结构与治理机制[M],经济管理出版社,2004年。
    33.李维安等,现代公司治理研究[M],中国人民大学出版社,2002年。
    34.易丹辉,数据分析与EViews应用[M],中国人民大学出版社,2007年。
    35.张晓峒,计量经济分析[M],经济科学出版社,2003年。
    36.陈小悦,李晨.上海股市的收益与资本结构关系实证研究.北京大学学报,1995(1):72-79.
    37.孙永祥,黄祖辉.上市公司股权结构与绩效.经济研究,1999(12):23-30.
    38.朱武祥,宋勇.股权结构与企业价值一对家电行业上市公司实证分析.经济研究,2001(12):66-72.
    39.陈晓,江东.股权多元化、公司业绩与行业竞争性.经济研究,2000(8):28-35.
    40.魏刚.高级管理层激励与上市公司经营绩效.经济研究,2000(3):32-39.
    41.陈小悦,徐晓东.股权结构、企业绩效与投资者利益的保护.经济研究,2001(11):3-11.
    42.许均华,李启亚.宏观政策对我国股市影响的实证研究.经济研究,2001(9):12-21。
    43.赵振全,蒋瑛棍,陈守东.股票市场对经济增长作用的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2002(8):83-85.
    44.杜莹,刘立国.股权结构与公司治理效率:中国上市公司的实证分析.管理世界,2002(11):124-133.
    45.徐晓东,陈小悦.第一大股东对公司治理、企业绩效的影响分析.经济研究,2003(2):64-74.
    46.常健.我国上市公司业绩决定机制实证分析.管理世界,2003(5):109-116.
    47.宋增基,张宗益.中国上市公司董事会治理与公司绩效实证分析.重庆大学学报,2003(6):122-125.
    48.施东晖,司徒大年.中国上市公司治理水平及对绩效影响的经验研究.世界经济,2004(5):69-79.
    49.罗楚亮.经济转轨、不确定性与城镇居民消费行为.经济研究,2004(4):100-106.
    50.白重恩,刘俏,陆洲,宋敏,张俊喜.中国上市公司治理结构的实证研究.经济研究,2005(2):81-91.
    51.肖作平,公司治理结构对资本结构类型的影响一一个Logit模型,管理世界,2005(9):137-148.
    52.徐莉萍,辛宇,陈工孟.股权集中度和股权制衡及其对公司经营绩效的影响.经济研究,2006(1):90-100.
    53.李维安,李汉军.股权结构、高管持股与公司绩效.南开管理评论,2006(5):4-10.
    54.汤青.中国上市公司盈利能力影响因素实证分析.山东财政学院学报,2005(2)::56-59.
    55.王跃堂,赵子夜,魏晓雁.董事会的独立性是否影响公司绩效?.经济研究,2006(5):62-73.
    56.汪金龙,李创霏.高管人力资本、高管报酬和公司绩效关系的实证研究.经济管理,2007(24):33-38.
    57.徐向艺,王俊伟,巩震.高管人员报酬激励与公司治理绩效研究.中国工业经济,2007(02):94-100.
    58.魏刚,肖泽忠,NickTravlos,邹宏.独立董事背景与公司经营绩效.经济研究,2007(3):92-105.
    59.中国人民大学宏观经济预测课题组.调整国民收入分配格局是提升消费关键.21世纪经济报道,2007.11.26.
    60.高雷,宋顺林.高管报酬激励与企业绩效.财经科学,2007(b4):96-104.
    61.冷建飞.中国农业上市公司盈利性的影响因素研究[D],南京农业大学,2007.12.
    62.陈明贺,股权分置改革及股权结构对公司绩效影响的实证研究——基于面板数据的分析,南方经济,2007(2):57-66.
    63.李燕萍,孙红.不同高管报酬方式对公司绩效的影响研究.经济管理,2008(18):42-49.
    64.靳庆鲁,李荣林,万华林.经济增长、经济政策与公司业绩关系的实证研究.经济研究,2008(8):90-101.
    65.李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004.经济研究,2008(7):118-129.
    66.钱珍.经济增长、居民消费与保险发展的长期联动效应分析—基于VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的研究.统计与信息论坛,2008(7):50-54.
    67.宁家耀,王蕾.中国上市公司董事会行为与公司绩效关系实证研究.管理科学.2008(4):9-47.
    68.靳庆鲁,原红旗.公司治理与股改对价的确定.经济学(季刊),2008(10):249-270.
    69.廖理,沈红波,郦金梁.股权分置改革与上市公司治理的实证研究.中国工业经济,2008(5):99-108.
    70.陆旭辉,冯庆水.产业结构、消费结构与经济增长的实证分析—基于安徽省的VAR模型研究.中国集体经济,2009911):18-20.
    71.郝臣.国外公司治理与公司绩效关系研究综述—1976年—2006年经典文献梳理.审计与经济研究.2009(2):107-110.
    72.薛有志,李国栋.多元化战略、高管持股分布设计与公司治理.管理科学.2009(4):2-13.
    73.邹玲,骆昀晖.我国居民消费波动的影响因素研究.经济理论与经济管理,2009(5):24-30.
    74.杨倩,杨佳.物流类上市公司股权结构与经营绩效关系的实证研究.经济论坛,2009(15)134-137.
    75.郝云宏,周翼翔.股权结构与公司绩效关系研究综述.经济管理,2010(4):64-71.
    76.胡毅,王美今,余壮雄.面板协整检验有限样本性质的模拟比较.数量经济技术经济研究,2010(2),142-152.
    77.林晓羽.格兰杰因果检验在面板数据上的应用研究.福州大学学报(自然科学版),2010.38(2):]83-187.
    78.陈仕华,郑文全.公司治理理论的最新进展:一个新的分析框架.管理世界,2010(2):156-166.
    79.左晶晶.高管激励与企业业绩的u形关系—基于边际递减效应和过度激励的研究,2010,中国金融学术研究网.
    80.张学勇,廖理.股权分置改革、自愿性信息披露与公司治理.经济研究,2010(4):28-39.
    81.王成昌,刘升福.中国上市公司外部治理问题及对策研究.科技与管理,2003(5):9-11.
    82.姜再勇严宝玉,盛朝晖,李宏瑾.经济价值创造、投资效率与宏观经济增长—EVA方法及对我国 和北京市制造业面板数据的研究.金融研究,2007(329)11:118-128.
    83.刘金全,郑挺国,等.我国通货膨胀率均值过程和波动过程中的双长记忆性度量与统计检验.管理世界,2007,(7):14-21.
    84.肖作平.中国上市公司外部治理结构特征分析.财政研究,2007(3):66-69.
    85.范晓莉.上市公司外部治理机制分析及对策研究.牡丹江师范学院学报,2009(4):17-19.
    86.李维安,孙文.董事会治理对公司绩效累积效应的实证研究—基于中国上市公司的数据.中国工业经济,2007(12):77-84.
    87.徐冬莉,兰玉杰.董事会治理与公司绩效关系的研究综述.华东经济管理,2007(10):103-107.
    88.李斌,尹晓峰.中国上市公司绩效与宏观经济同步效应的实证分析.财经问题研究,2008,(10):76-82.
    89.李学峰,基于有效需求视角的股票市场发展与经济增长,广东金融学院学报,2008(23)2:81-90。
    90.李晓冬,我国股票市场与经济增长相关关系的经济计量表述,产业与科技论坛,2009(8)2:139-140
    91.黄波,陈正旭.中国A股上市公司董事会治理结构的影响因素研究.管理科学,2010(6):11-22.
    92.于少游,张红,旅游上市公司业绩与宏观经济的动态关系研究.资源开发与市场,2010.26.5:459-463.
    93.周建,方刚,刘小元.外部制度环境、内部治理结构与企业竞争优势—基于中国上市公司的经验证据.管理学报,2010(7):963-971.

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700