基于OMI卫星数据和数值模拟的中国大气SO_2浓度监测与排放量估算
摘要
二氧化硫(Sulfur dioxide, SO2)作为大气中一种重要的痕量气体,是大气污染的主要成分之一,对大气环境和人体健康造成非常严重的影响。随着改革开放以来社会经济迅速发展,我国SO2排放量不断增加,至2005年全国S02排放总量为2549万吨,比2000年增加了约27%,总量居世界第一。为此,国家把SO2作为“十一五”期间大气污染减排的唯一约束性指标：至2010年S02排放比2005年减少10%。
本文通过2005～2010年臭氧监测仪(OMI)卫星遥感数据分析我国大气S02时空分布特征,采用中尺度气象模式(WRF)和通用多尺度空气质量模式(CMAQ)对大气802进行模拟,分析了各地SO2的源汇关系,并提出基于遥感数据的S02排放量估算方法,以期为国家S02减排及污染控制提供理论依据和方法参考。
本文主要研究工作和成果如下：
(1) OMI/SO2数据获取与处理。对2005～2010年的OMI PBL SO2数据,剔除了太阳天顶角比较高,云量大的数据,通过大气质量因子(AMF)对SO2数据重新校正,计算出中国地区不同月份的大气S02平均浓度。通过与东亚酸沉降监测网(EANET)中国站点SO2浓度数据和重点城市空气污染指数(API)转换的浓度数据对比,卫星数据与地面监测数据具有一致的季节变化趋势和较好的相关性。
(2)基于OMI数据分析中国大气S02浓度时空分布特征。由卫星数据分析,中国大气SO2分布具有明显的时空变化特征。空间分布上,全国SO2柱含量分布不均匀,东西部地区反差很大,东部地区的浓度明显高于西部地区,其中山西、河北、山东三省交界区域SO2浓度最高。季节变化上,东部地区季节变化明显,夏季浓度最低,冬季浓度最高；而西部地区季节变化幅度不大,但其变化趋势与东部地区相反,表现为夏季浓度高,冬季浓度比较低。年度变化上,呈现明显的波动性,2007年浓度最高,2009年又降至最低,而2010年浓度又开始回升。通过SO2浓度与能源消耗量的相关性分析知,SO2浓度与煤炭的消耗量相关性最好,说明大气中SO2主要来源于煤炭燃烧排放。
(3)中国大气SO2数值模拟分析。以INTEX-B资料为大气质量模拟所需的排放方案,采用WRF与CMAQ模型对中国地区不同季节的大气SO2浓度进行了模拟。模拟结果的空间分布和季节变化与卫星监测结果类似,冬季是一年中SO2浓度最高的季节,空间分布上东部地区明显高于西北地区。模拟显示不同地区SO2浓度的日变化不同,各地垂直变化主要表现为SO2主要分布在800hPa以下。S02沉降主要集中于S02高排放区域,季节分布上秋冬季节S02沉降量大,且主要分布于中国的中东部地区。
(4)中国大气S02浓度及沉降的源汇分析。提出四种模拟方案进行各地S02浓度及沉降量源汇分析。对比四种模拟方案,100RM_S方案相关性及误差都要优于其它方案,其误差分布表现为模拟区域的周边地区误差比较大,而中国的大部分地区,特别是SO2浓度比较高的中东部地区误差在3%以内。采用100RM_S方案计算了各区域及分省SO2浓度及沉降量的源汇关系。区域上中部地区对周边影响最大,西南区则主要受自身排放影响；河北、山西等省份对周边地区影响比较大,而北京、天津等地受周边省份影响大；1月源汇明显,而7月则自身排放影响占主导：SO2浓度的源汇明显,而SO2沉降则受自身排放影响比重大。
(5)基于卫星数据的SO2排放量估算。通过分析大气中SO2的收支平衡方程,提出了基于线性比例和基于源汇关系的SO2排放量估算方法。分别以CMAQ模拟的1月、4月、7月和10月S02浓度和各地S02源汇关系以及OMI卫星观测浓度值,估算出中东部地区12省市的SO2排放量。由于排放因子等不确定性因素的影响,各种以统计数据估算的SO2排放量之间差异较大。而基于卫星观测的S02数据,结合CMAQ模型,自上而下的进行S02排放量的估算,避免了地面不确定性因素影响,将是对传统排放系数法估算有效的补充与提高。
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important trace gas in the atmosphere and one of the main air pollutants, which has a serious impact on atmospheric environment and human health. The SO2in the atmosphere mainly derives from human discharge, and the process of the economic booming since reform and opening up in China is accompanied by the increase of SO2emission. The increasing emission of SO2leads to serious environmental pollution, and it has been regarded as a restricting environment factor in the development of Chinese economy. During the10th Five Year Plan (FYP) period, the totale missions of SO2increased by27.8%from19.95Mt to25.49Mt. In an attempt to address these challenges, the Chinese government published the11th FYP for national environment protection. The11th FYP included only one goal for air pollution control policy to reduce SO2emissions in2010by10%from the2005level.
The spatiotemporal variation in SO2concentration during2005-2010over China was monitored from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) SO2column concentration retrieved from Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) data, in this study. The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were applied to assess the source-receptor relationships of SO2, and a new methodology was developed to constrain the emissions of SO2based on OMI data, so as to provide theoretic reference for national emission control.
The main studies and results are as follows.
(1) The acquisition and procession of OMI data:The data used in this study are acquired from the OMI/Aura Level-2SO2data product between2005and2010. The study abandons data affected by large solar zenith angle and big cloud, rectifies the valid data by AMF, and calculates the average value of each month in different area in China. After comparing the SO2concentration data acquired from EANET china station and API data in key cities, this study concludes that the satellite data corresponds to the observed data in season trend well and has a good correlation.
(2) The temporal and spatial distribution of SO2concentration in china based on OMI data:By the analysis of satellite data, the distribution of SO2in china has obvious temporal and spatial feature. In the spatial distribution, the volume of SO2 varies greatly in China, and there is a big difference between the east and the west. The concentration in the east is much higher than that of the west, with the maximum appeared in the border of ShanXi, HeBei and ShanDong provinces. In the seasonal variation, there is an obvious seasonal change in the east; the concentration is in the lowest in summer and in the highest in winter. Conversely, there is not an obvious seasonal change in the west; the concentration is in the highest in summer and in the lowest in winter. In the annual change trend, there is obvious concentration fluctuations in the five years, which is in the highest in2007and in the lowest in2009, yet restart to increase in2010. With the analysis of correlation between SO2concentration and energy consumption, it is found that the SO2concentration correlates best with coal consumptions, which indicates that the SO2in the atmosphere is mainly from coal burning.
(3) The simulation of SO2concentration in china:Using data of INTEX-B as the emission scheme to the atmosphere, this study simulates the SO2concentration in different seasons in China by WRF and CMAQ model. It shows that the spatial distribution and the seasonal variation of simulation are similar to satellite monitoring results. The concentration of SO2in the east is much higher than that in the northwest, and winter is the season with highest concentration. The simulation also shows the daily variations of SO2concentration varies in different regions. The curve of Beijing is just like "N" with two peaks. In the vertical change, the SO2distributes mainly under800hpa. The SO2deposition area is the region with high SO2emission, mainly in mid-eastern China, and the heaviest deposition season is fall and winter.
(4) Source-receptor relationships of SO2concentration and deposition in China. Four simulated schemes are designed to find the source-receptor relationships of SO2concentration and deposition in china. After the comparison of these schemes, it can be found that the100RM_S scheme is far good than others because of the better correlation and less errors. The error is mainly appeared on the surrounding area of simulated region. In most regions in china, especially the mid-eastern China where the SO2concentration is high, the error is under3%. So the source-receptor relationships were calculated by100RM_S model. From the results, it can be found that CTR area has most impact on its surrounding area, while SW area is mainly affected by the emission from its own. HeBei and Shanxi provinces have more impact on other regions, while Beijing and Tianjin cities are heavily influenced by their neighboring areas. Temporally, there is a specific source-receptor relationship in January, and its own emission will be the primary cause in July. SO2concentration has a specific source-receptor relationship, and SO2deposition is mainly determined by its own emission.
(5) Estimation of SO2emission based on satellite data:SO2concentration in the atmosphere is controlled by some physical and chemical processes, such as surface emission, transport, chemical transform and dry deposition, called SO2budget. A new methodology was developed to constrain the emissions of SO2based on OMI data, Using the linear relationship between concentration and emission, and the source-receptor relationships of SO2. Based on the concentration and the source-receptor relationships simulated by CMAQ and OMI data in January, April, July and October,2006, the SO2emission in the East of China was estimated. It can be found that SO2emission from the statistic data is less than data of INTEX-B and estimation based on satellite. Assessments of the implications of SO2emissions usually are based on "bottom-up" inventories as estimated by using geographical and statistical data to extrapolate measurements of emission factors, typically available only on a sparse spatial and temporal network and subject to uncertainty."Top-down" constraints on SO2emissions through satellite observations could provide valuable data to inform emission inventory development and evaluation.
本文通过2005～2010年臭氧监测仪(OMI)卫星遥感数据分析我国大气S02时空分布特征,采用中尺度气象模式(WRF)和通用多尺度空气质量模式(CMAQ)对大气802进行模拟,分析了各地SO2的源汇关系,并提出基于遥感数据的S02排放量估算方法,以期为国家S02减排及污染控制提供理论依据和方法参考。
本文主要研究工作和成果如下：
(1) OMI/SO2数据获取与处理。对2005～2010年的OMI PBL SO2数据,剔除了太阳天顶角比较高,云量大的数据,通过大气质量因子(AMF)对SO2数据重新校正,计算出中国地区不同月份的大气S02平均浓度。通过与东亚酸沉降监测网(EANET)中国站点SO2浓度数据和重点城市空气污染指数(API)转换的浓度数据对比,卫星数据与地面监测数据具有一致的季节变化趋势和较好的相关性。
(2)基于OMI数据分析中国大气S02浓度时空分布特征。由卫星数据分析,中国大气SO2分布具有明显的时空变化特征。空间分布上,全国SO2柱含量分布不均匀,东西部地区反差很大,东部地区的浓度明显高于西部地区,其中山西、河北、山东三省交界区域SO2浓度最高。季节变化上,东部地区季节变化明显,夏季浓度最低,冬季浓度最高；而西部地区季节变化幅度不大,但其变化趋势与东部地区相反,表现为夏季浓度高,冬季浓度比较低。年度变化上,呈现明显的波动性,2007年浓度最高,2009年又降至最低,而2010年浓度又开始回升。通过SO2浓度与能源消耗量的相关性分析知,SO2浓度与煤炭的消耗量相关性最好,说明大气中SO2主要来源于煤炭燃烧排放。
(3)中国大气SO2数值模拟分析。以INTEX-B资料为大气质量模拟所需的排放方案,采用WRF与CMAQ模型对中国地区不同季节的大气SO2浓度进行了模拟。模拟结果的空间分布和季节变化与卫星监测结果类似,冬季是一年中SO2浓度最高的季节,空间分布上东部地区明显高于西北地区。模拟显示不同地区SO2浓度的日变化不同,各地垂直变化主要表现为SO2主要分布在800hPa以下。S02沉降主要集中于S02高排放区域,季节分布上秋冬季节S02沉降量大,且主要分布于中国的中东部地区。
(4)中国大气S02浓度及沉降的源汇分析。提出四种模拟方案进行各地S02浓度及沉降量源汇分析。对比四种模拟方案,100RM_S方案相关性及误差都要优于其它方案,其误差分布表现为模拟区域的周边地区误差比较大,而中国的大部分地区,特别是SO2浓度比较高的中东部地区误差在3%以内。采用100RM_S方案计算了各区域及分省SO2浓度及沉降量的源汇关系。区域上中部地区对周边影响最大,西南区则主要受自身排放影响；河北、山西等省份对周边地区影响比较大,而北京、天津等地受周边省份影响大；1月源汇明显,而7月则自身排放影响占主导：SO2浓度的源汇明显,而SO2沉降则受自身排放影响比重大。
(5)基于卫星数据的SO2排放量估算。通过分析大气中SO2的收支平衡方程,提出了基于线性比例和基于源汇关系的SO2排放量估算方法。分别以CMAQ模拟的1月、4月、7月和10月S02浓度和各地S02源汇关系以及OMI卫星观测浓度值,估算出中东部地区12省市的SO2排放量。由于排放因子等不确定性因素的影响,各种以统计数据估算的SO2排放量之间差异较大。而基于卫星观测的S02数据,结合CMAQ模型,自上而下的进行S02排放量的估算,避免了地面不确定性因素影响,将是对传统排放系数法估算有效的补充与提高。
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important trace gas in the atmosphere and one of the main air pollutants, which has a serious impact on atmospheric environment and human health. The SO2in the atmosphere mainly derives from human discharge, and the process of the economic booming since reform and opening up in China is accompanied by the increase of SO2emission. The increasing emission of SO2leads to serious environmental pollution, and it has been regarded as a restricting environment factor in the development of Chinese economy. During the10th Five Year Plan (FYP) period, the totale missions of SO2increased by27.8%from19.95Mt to25.49Mt. In an attempt to address these challenges, the Chinese government published the11th FYP for national environment protection. The11th FYP included only one goal for air pollution control policy to reduce SO2emissions in2010by10%from the2005level.
The spatiotemporal variation in SO2concentration during2005-2010over China was monitored from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) SO2column concentration retrieved from Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) data, in this study. The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were applied to assess the source-receptor relationships of SO2, and a new methodology was developed to constrain the emissions of SO2based on OMI data, so as to provide theoretic reference for national emission control.
The main studies and results are as follows.
(1) The acquisition and procession of OMI data:The data used in this study are acquired from the OMI/Aura Level-2SO2data product between2005and2010. The study abandons data affected by large solar zenith angle and big cloud, rectifies the valid data by AMF, and calculates the average value of each month in different area in China. After comparing the SO2concentration data acquired from EANET china station and API data in key cities, this study concludes that the satellite data corresponds to the observed data in season trend well and has a good correlation.
(2) The temporal and spatial distribution of SO2concentration in china based on OMI data:By the analysis of satellite data, the distribution of SO2in china has obvious temporal and spatial feature. In the spatial distribution, the volume of SO2 varies greatly in China, and there is a big difference between the east and the west. The concentration in the east is much higher than that of the west, with the maximum appeared in the border of ShanXi, HeBei and ShanDong provinces. In the seasonal variation, there is an obvious seasonal change in the east; the concentration is in the lowest in summer and in the highest in winter. Conversely, there is not an obvious seasonal change in the west; the concentration is in the highest in summer and in the lowest in winter. In the annual change trend, there is obvious concentration fluctuations in the five years, which is in the highest in2007and in the lowest in2009, yet restart to increase in2010. With the analysis of correlation between SO2concentration and energy consumption, it is found that the SO2concentration correlates best with coal consumptions, which indicates that the SO2in the atmosphere is mainly from coal burning.
(3) The simulation of SO2concentration in china:Using data of INTEX-B as the emission scheme to the atmosphere, this study simulates the SO2concentration in different seasons in China by WRF and CMAQ model. It shows that the spatial distribution and the seasonal variation of simulation are similar to satellite monitoring results. The concentration of SO2in the east is much higher than that in the northwest, and winter is the season with highest concentration. The simulation also shows the daily variations of SO2concentration varies in different regions. The curve of Beijing is just like "N" with two peaks. In the vertical change, the SO2distributes mainly under800hpa. The SO2deposition area is the region with high SO2emission, mainly in mid-eastern China, and the heaviest deposition season is fall and winter.
(4) Source-receptor relationships of SO2concentration and deposition in China. Four simulated schemes are designed to find the source-receptor relationships of SO2concentration and deposition in china. After the comparison of these schemes, it can be found that the100RM_S scheme is far good than others because of the better correlation and less errors. The error is mainly appeared on the surrounding area of simulated region. In most regions in china, especially the mid-eastern China where the SO2concentration is high, the error is under3%. So the source-receptor relationships were calculated by100RM_S model. From the results, it can be found that CTR area has most impact on its surrounding area, while SW area is mainly affected by the emission from its own. HeBei and Shanxi provinces have more impact on other regions, while Beijing and Tianjin cities are heavily influenced by their neighboring areas. Temporally, there is a specific source-receptor relationship in January, and its own emission will be the primary cause in July. SO2concentration has a specific source-receptor relationship, and SO2deposition is mainly determined by its own emission.
(5) Estimation of SO2emission based on satellite data:SO2concentration in the atmosphere is controlled by some physical and chemical processes, such as surface emission, transport, chemical transform and dry deposition, called SO2budget. A new methodology was developed to constrain the emissions of SO2based on OMI data, Using the linear relationship between concentration and emission, and the source-receptor relationships of SO2. Based on the concentration and the source-receptor relationships simulated by CMAQ and OMI data in January, April, July and October,2006, the SO2emission in the East of China was estimated. It can be found that SO2emission from the statistic data is less than data of INTEX-B and estimation based on satellite. Assessments of the implications of SO2emissions usually are based on "bottom-up" inventories as estimated by using geographical and statistical data to extrapolate measurements of emission factors, typically available only on a sparse spatial and temporal network and subject to uncertainty."Top-down" constraints on SO2emissions through satellite observations could provide valuable data to inform emission inventory development and evaluation.
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