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投资者情绪与上市公司投资行为研究
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摘要
公司金融理论中投融资决策是一个很重要的分支,其中投资决策作为企业最核心的财务决策之一,是未来现金流增长和决定企业未来成长性的主要动因,直接决定了公司面临的经营风险和未来的盈利能力,同时还客观的影响资本市场对于公司价值的评估和证券价格的有效性,因此投资决策可以称为公司财务决策的起点。
     传统的投融资理论是以有效市场的假设条件为基础的,市场参与者理性与市场价格信息的有效是公司投资决策的前提,但在现实市场中无论是经济运行状况还是证券市场的波动都证明市场价格常常偏离公司的基本价值。为此,Shleifer(2003)、Baker et al.(2004)、Polk and Sapienza(2009)等学者对在市场非理性状态下的公司投资决策行为做了大量的研究,以理性人假设为出发点,从投资者非理性和企业决策者非理性的角度,提出了如市场迎合机制和市场时机选择机制等理论。此外,价格信号作为市场信息传递的重要手段,公司决策者在信息不完全的条件下有向市场学习的动力,价格信号的扭曲也在很大程度上影响到公司的投资决策的制定者,如果决策者达不到理性人的要求,或者无法过滤市场中的非有效信息,那么在制定决策的过程中必然会受到市场中非理性因素的影响MSV(1990)。
     以行为金融视角研究公司投资决策的文献多是从以上两个层面分别出发单独研究的,虽然该领域的研究才刚刚起步,已经有越来越多的学者已经将目光投向这个领域,也得到了许多有价值的研究成果,‘但笔者认为市场参与者的非理性行为与市场信息的有效程度二者是互为因果的统一整体,无法分离,因此如何将两个研究方向结合起来讨论市场信息效率、投资者情绪与上市公司投资行为之间关系引起了笔者的兴趣。一方面投资者情绪使得股价偏离了自身价值,价格信号失真,企业管理者在不准确的价格信号引导下或是处于自身有限理性的原因进行投资决策,造成投资的非效率。另一方面,随着我国资本市场的不断发展完善,越来越多的文献证明我国的市场效率在不断的提高,尤其在进行了股权分置改革之后,股价信息含量有了明显的提升,股价信号中公司私有信息成分越高,理论上公司管理者接受到的信息噪声越小,高效率的价格信号应当有助于引导企业将资金投入到更符合长期公司价值最大化的项目中去。同时,随着市场效率的不断提高和股价信息含量的逐步丰富,股票价格中含有的市场信息和行业信息比例应当越来越小,公司特质化信息越来越多,即股票的非同步性越来越强,由投资者非理性引起的市场情绪化波动应当也能够得到一定程度的缓解,这从另一方面又反作用于市场,提高了市场价格信号的准确程度,有助于企业投资效率的提升。鉴于以上的理论基础,本文试图利用我国上市公司的财务数据,选取合理的投资者情绪和股价信息含量的代理指标构建模型,将企业投资行为研究中理性人角度与信息机制角度结合起来,讨论三者之间的关系和相互影响,希望能够从一个较为完整的体系中提供一个企业投资行为研究领域的新视角。
     本文通过实证研究主要得出了一下结论:
     1、我国上市公司的投资行为与投资者情绪显著正相关,说明企业管理层在投资决策过程中受到了投资者情绪的正向影响。由于我国特殊的市场环境和经济体制,上市公司投资行为对于市场情绪的反映存在明显的时滞。在股价信息含量对于上市公司投资行为的市场情绪迎合倾向的作用时发现,上市公司投资行为与市场情绪显著正相关,但与市场情绪与股价信息含量的交乘项显著负相关,说明就总体投资水平而言,股价信息含量的提高有助于公司特质化信息的表达,信息效率的提高让公司管理层能够更加清楚的认识到公司的价值,分离股价信号中的理性成分和非理性成分,抑制由于信息不完全而导致的上市公司投资决策受到投资者情绪影响的问题。
     2、与传统公司投资研究的结论类似,无论从公司的股权结构、资产特点还是公司治理结构来看,不同公司特征面对情绪投资问题时也会表现出一定的差异性。具体地,从股权结构角度分析,上市公司中国有股比例的高低并不是决定其投资水平的关键性因素,同时上市公司的国有化程度也不是引起企业情绪投资问题的主要因素,上市公司投资的非效率问题是通过其他渠道导致的,因此信息效率的提高并不能从改变投资者情绪的渠道改善企业投资效率。股权集中度是影响上市公司情绪投资的重要因素,随着第一大股东持股比例的提高,上市公司管理者迎合投资者情绪投资的倾向性也随之增强,信息效率不高是引起这一现象的原因,随着股价信息含量的提升,信息机制作用效果的增强更够抑制市场非理性因素对于上市公司投资行为的影响。
     公司资产特点中公司资产规模大小和负债率的高低都是影响上市公司投资水平的显性因素,但影响的方式不同。在企业情绪投资问题上,资产规模因子对于投资者情绪的变化并不敏感,而资产负债率则显著为负,说明如果上市公司的负债比率过高,债权人的资产替代行为能够弱化上市公司的情绪投资问题。而在加入了股价信息含量变量后,发现信息机制在不同程度上影响了公司的情绪投资倾向。资产规模大的公司,信息效率机制起到的作用是抑制性的而对于负债比例高的公司,信息效率机制起到是一种正向的作用,但是这种作用并不明显。
     公司治理同样是影响公司情绪化投资问题的主因之一,具体来说,董事长与CEO二职合一的公司容易选择迎合市场的非理性情绪,且这种迎合行为是出于自身目的有意为之的,因此信息效率的提高不能够改变这种迎合倾向。同时随着独立董事比例的提高,公司治理机制的增强有助于抑制上市公司的情绪投资问题,信息效率的提高是帮助上市公司提高投资效率的有效途径之一。
     3、在对上市公司投资效率的考察中,发现无论是投资过度还是投资不足的情形下,如果投资者情绪(过度乐观或者过度悲观)与投资非效率的方向(投资过度或者投资不足)相同,则会使企业投资更加偏离其合理化水平,表现出“恶化效应”,如果与非效率方向相反,则此时投资者情绪能够在一定程度上使企业投资效率得到修正,即“矫正效应”。此无论在投资过度还是投资不足时期,股价信息含量的提高能够抑制投资过度同时也能够缓解投资不足,说明市场信息效率的提高有助于企业决策者接受股价中表示公司特质的私有化信息,分离股价信号中的理性因素与非理性因素,明确对未来的预期,改善上市公司的投资效率。
     4、在股价信息含量提高改善公司投资效率的研究中发现,信息效率作用于上市公司投资决策行为是通过两种不同机制,即直接作用机制和间接作用机制。同时还强调以股价信息含量为代理变量的信息效率并不是越高越好,股价信息含量的测量计算方式决定了其存在一定的缺陷:股价信息含量对于投资决策的作用不能够准确的区分上市公司情绪投资的两种效应,即“矫正效应”和“恶化效应”。在能够有效加强投资者情绪对非效率投资“纠正作用”的同时,也会使投资者情绪对于企业非效率投资的“恶化作用”被放大。
The investment and financing decisions is a very important branch of corporate finance. As the core of one of the financial decisions, investment decision is the driving force of cash flow and corporate growth in the future, directly determines the operational risks faced by the company and the future profitability of the capital market for the company. It also objectively effect validity of the assessment of the value of the company and the prices of the securities.So investment decisions can be called the beginning of the corporate financial decisions.
     Traditional investment and financing theory is based on the assumptions of the efficient market, rational market participants and the effectiveness of market price is the premise of the company's investment decisions, but in fact,the economic situation and the stock market fluctuations have proved market prices often deviate from the real value of the company. Shleifer (2003)、Baker et al (2004)、Polk and Sapienza (2009) and other scholars have done a lot of research on investment decision of companies in the irrational market, using rational man as a starting point, from the viewpoint of irrational man and irrational decision-makers of company, put forward theory of market caters mechanism and market timing mechanism.
     In addition, price signals is an important means of transmission of market information, in conditions of incomplete information, decision-makers have the motivation to learn from the market. To a large extent, distortions in market prices affect the company's investment decision-makers. If the decision maker is irrational, or non-valid information can not be filtered in the market, then the decision-making process will be inevitably effected by the irrational factors in the market MS V (1990).
     From Behavioral finance point of view, the vast majority of researches on corporate investment decision start from the two aspects above, although research in this field has just started, there have been more and more scholars have set their sights on the field, also obtained many valuable research results, but the author believes that irrational behavior of market participants and the effective degree of market information are in a mutual cause-effect relation, which evokes my great interest.
     On one hand, investor sentiment causes the stock price deviates from its value, under the guidance of the wrong price, managers of the company make investment decisions and causing inefficiency investments On the other hand, with the continuous development of China's capital market, more and more literatures have proved that China's market efficiency is increasing, especially after non-tradable shares reform, the stock price informativeness has been significantly improved. Higher the stock price informativeness, smaller the noise the manager accepts from the price signals, higher efficient of price information help managers to fund more in line with the maximum value of the company's long-term project.
     At the same time, with the increase of market efficiency and the information content of stock price, market information and industry information contained in stock prices should be more and more small, the company private information should more and more, so the stock price non-synchronicity grows. Market emotional fluctuations caused by the irrational can be alleviated, which makes further efforts to improve the accuracy of market price signals, help enterprises to promote investment efficiency.
     In view of the above theory, this paper tries to use the financial data of China's listing Corporation, building model of proxy index to select reasonable investor sentiment and the information content of stock price, discuss the relationship between factors, hoping to offer a new perspective the enterprise investment behavior research from a relatively complete system.
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