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C-D生产函数参数估计的分位数回归方法研究
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摘要
目前国内外对于生产函数模型的研究还是较为齐全的,主要是应用生产函数对经济增长中的各投入要素来进行实证分析,并且近年来分析的内容也在不断加深和丰富,制度因素、产业结构因素、人力资源因素等等都已经纳入了实证分析之中。对于生产函数模型参数的估计方法上,目前主要以经典的最小二乘法为主,采用分位数回归方法对生产函数模型参数进行估计的研究较少,并且也只是停留在实证分析层面上
     本论文针对上述问题,以两个解释变量的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数(C-D生产函数)模型为例,对截面数据生产函数模型与面板数据生产函数模型参数估计进行分位数回归方法的研究,在分析学者相关研究成果的基础上,通过理论方法分析和蒙特卡罗模拟方法,分别提出面板数据生产函数模型与截面数据生产函数模型的分位数回归方法,并与经典的最小二乘等回归方法进行比较研究,为广大学者进行有关生产函数模型参数估计问题的研究提供借鉴的方法和思路,为柯布-道格拉斯生产函数(C-D生产函数)模型的参数估计方法提供参考。
     同时对基于2007年北京市截面数据和中国大陆各省市(1978-2008年)的面板数据的生产函数模型进行实证研究,通过分位数回归方法,反映出各要素对北京市及中国经济增长影响效应的整体分布特征,便于政府对经济增长的整体把握,为政府决策提供有关依据。
     本研究的意义主要在于以下几点:一是对生产函数模型参数估计采用分位数回归方法,弥补了最小二乘法对于生产函数模型参数估计的不足;二是从不同的角度(如截面数据、面板数据)对生产函数模型进行分位数回归研究;三是对基于北京市截面数据与中国面板数据的生产函数进行实证分析,通过分位数回归方法,反映出各要素对北京市及中国经济增长影响效应的整体分布特征,得出有关结论并提供政策建议。
At present the research of production function model is quite complete. This model is mainly applied for empirical analysis of input factors in the economic growth. The content is becoming more deepened and enrich, which included institutional factors, industry structure factors, human resource factors. Least square method is the major estimation method about production function model parameter. The quantile regression is used less and just stay in the level of empirical analysis. In this thesis, the Cobb-Douglas production function (CD production function) model with two explanatory variables is used as an example to do quantile regression method research of cross-sectional data and panel data production function model parameters estimated. On the basis of the results of the analysis of scholars, quantile regression method of cross-sectional data and panel data production function model is proposed respectively through theoretical methods and Monte Carlo simulation. A comparative method is also applied with the classical least squares regression method. The purpose of this thesis is to supply methods for parameter estimation problems of production function model. References are also provided for parameter estimation process of C-D production function.
     Meanwhile an empirical study has been researched of production function model based on cross-sectional data of Beijing in2007and panel data of Chinese mainlan provinces from1978to2008. The overal distribution characteristics of the economic growth of Beijing and China can be reflected through the quantile regression method, which can be used by the government for understanding the overall growth and appropriate decision.
     The meaning of the research is listed as following. Firstly, quantile regression method makes up the shortage of least square method about estimation parameter of production function model. Next, different angles, such as cross-sectional data panel data quantile regression can be used for quantile regression research. Last but not the least, empirical analysis based on the Beijing cross-sectional data and panel data analysis reflecting the various elements of Beijing and Chinese economic growth, and relevant conclusions and policy recommendations through quantile regression.
引文
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